1. Wii Hacks for Participatory Planning Cape Cod: 2030 Interactive Climate Change Scenario Planning using CommunityViz and other Low Cost Tools Photo: Henrik Dreisler

2. Jason Lally Director of the Decision Lab jason@placematters.org Amy Anderson Lead Planning Consultant amy@placeways.com

3. Volpe Center

4. Chris Powicki, Water Energy & Ecology Information Services Energy Use (KTOE) Cape & Islands Congo Population Cape & Islands Congo *Figures are for energy consumption only; they do not reflect life-cycle emissions associated with resource use, emissions from Canal Plant, emissions attributable to combustion of MSW; emissions from land use; etc.

5. Rob Thieler, USGS at Woods Hole IPCC AR4 A1B envelope (modified after Rahmstorf, 2007; AR4 data from Bindoff, 2007) (modified after Rahmstorf, 2007; AR4 data from Bindoff, 2007)

6. Rob Thieler, USGS at Woods Hole Bluff erosion Overwash Island Breaching Listed SpeciesImpacts Threshold Crossing Urban Inundation Wetland Loss R. Carlson Water Quality Reduction Ecosystem Change Infrastructure Failure

7. Tom Cambareri , Cape Cod Commission

8. Tom Cambareri , Cape Cod Commission 8.5 pounds nitrogen* 85%** *Average 3-bed home discharge of nitrogen into groundwater per year **Percent of 156,000 homes presently on septic

9. Cape Cod Pilot Project Phases Beginning Phase Site selection Development of scope of work Formation of planning group and technical committee Data collection Second Phase Expert elicitation on climate change impacts Creation of GHG reduction strategies Consultation RFP; selection of consultant

10. Cape Cod Pilot Project Phases Workshops Identification and invitation of stakeholders Development of initial and preferred scenarios Follow-up analysis and modeling End Phase Implementation/action plans Guidebook for future implementation

11. Scenariosfor Land Use and Transportation Cape Cod: 2030 Photo: Henrik Dreisler

12. About scenario planning Five scenarios

13. Scenario Planning Uncertain Information Uncertain Outcomes Decision Makers Uncertain Choices The New Yorker Magazine/Zeigler 2004

14. Cape Cod 2010  2030 Indicators Scenarios ? Choices, Actions 2030 2010

15. It’s a computer. Computers know everything. How do we know what will happen? 2. Enough information and good information. ? But that’s okay. 3. We may be a little off. Choices, Actions

17. What’s most important?

18. What if we make adjustments?

19. Would it matter if our models changed?Refined Choice

20. Is and Isn’t Is Good For Education and insights Exploring a wide range of options Understanding trade-offs Directional decisions Isn’t Meant For Forecasting or prediction Engineering-level precision

21. Scenario Planning Tool placeways ® Promoting informed, collaborative decision-making since 2001. A project of In partnership with

22. About scenario planning Five scenarios

23. Cape Cod 2010  2030 Standard Standard Enhanced Enhanced Dispersed Targeted Pre-run Scenarios Transportation Trend ? Development Transportation 2030

24. Sketching Initial Scenarios Purposely extreme Highlight key variables Development patterns Transportation

25. Growth assumptions for all scenarios 20 year horizon: Year 2030 + 28,000 households Average of 2.25 persons per household Year-round population: 221,000  284,000 Summer (peak) population: 480,000  543,000 All growth is in year-round population + 16,500 jobs Jobs: 97,000  113,500

26. Transportation Choices Standard Enhanced Today plus… Train to Boston 1 new bus route Other planned improvements Standard plus… More bus stops Higher frequency Pedestrian and bicycle improvements in dense areas

27. Workshop Exercises & Techniques Cape Cod: 2030 Photo: Henrik Dreisler

28. CCC staff Town planners Federal agencies

30. Choose your top two issues: Water quality and supply Reduce traffic and vehicle miles traveled Access to services and employment Avoid development in hazard areas Reduce the Cape’s greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution Avoid development in critical habitat or conservation areas Protect the integrity of historic preservation districts Increase access to transit and nonmotorized modes

31. Choose your top two issues:

32. Concept Mapping

35. LessonsLearned Cape Cod: 2030 Photo: Henrik Dreisler

36. Lessons Learned Things to Improve on More time is better Make sure reliable transportation data on the current and trend exist Periodic status checks are helpful 2 facilitators per table 1 technical 1 discussion leader Test EVERYTHING ahead of time

37. Lessons Learned Reaffirmed Beliefs Having the live data is invaluable to the process The simpler the interaction, the better Less resolution can be a good thing for regional level Don’t expect to walk away with “the answer” in 1 day People want to get involved

38. Jason Lally Director of the Decision Lab jason@placematters.org Tw: @theplacematters Tw: @synchronouscity Fb: http://fb.me/placematters Bl: http://blog.placematters.org Amy Anderson Lead Planning Consultant amy@placeways.com W: http://placeways.com W: http://communityviz.com