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Presentation to World Futures Studies Federation June2013


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Presentation by Gill Ringland on "Here Be Dragons" Connecting a changing world to strategic decisions

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Presentation to World Futures Studies Federation June2013

  1. 1. 10/25/13 1
  2. 2. 10/25/13 ©2009 Ringland 2
  3. 3. Perceived impact US BN $ 1000 100 Perceived likelihood in next 10 years 10/25/13 3
  4. 4. Gigajoules per capita 400 USA 300 200 Europe, Japan, Korea 100 China, India 0 0 10/25/13 10 20 GDP per capita 30 40 4
  5. 5. The logarithm of the ratio of the current situation to the probable long term sustainable limit: these have been breached already Carbon dioxide Change in land use Species extinction rate 0 Freshwater use Nitrogen cycle Sustainable limit Ocean acidification Phosphorus cycle Stratospheric ozone depletion 10/25/13 ©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 2010 5
  6. 6. Traditional hierarchy Efficiency Asset allocation Ad hoc activities, lobbying etc Effective at renewal ? Present and future operating environment 10/25/13 ©2009 Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow 6
  7. 7. Knows the answer doesn’t know the answer Individual 10/25/13 Organisation knows the answer doesn’t know the answer 7
  8. 8. Consultant 10/25/13 Line manager 8
  9. 9. Line manager, Engineer Corporate manager Early indicators Decisions, Timelines Portfolio management Options Decisions 10/25/13 Strategist Scenarios Ideas & systems Planning Alternate worlds Future thinker “843” trends interconnected 9
  10. 10. 10/25/13 10
  11. 11. Traditional hierarchy Efficiency, hedgehogs Asset allocation Planning and ensuring renewal machinery works Effective at renewal, foxes Present and future operating environment ©2009 Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow
  12. 12. • EFFLA (European Forum on Forward Looking Activities) set up to – aggregate existing forward looking studies and data – and involve public and private stakeholders to improve the evidence base of future (R&I) policies • Advisory Board to DG RTD, set up in September 2011 • Adopted a strategy cycle from TEKES in Finland as the basis for aligning to DG RTD cycle 10/25/13 ©2009 Ringland 12
  13. 13. Necessary elements of the future EU strategic process Foresight (I) > Insight (II) > Strategy (III) > Action (IV)
  14. 14. • Strategic process: – Strategic Intelligence – cast wide – Stronger systematic sense-making using SI data – role of experts and individuals – Sense making strong link to Selecting priorities – Political dynamics & Member States important in Selecting Priorities • “Hub” – NODE (close to decision-makers) to give access and be an anchor for effectiveness; – also to act as an INTERFACE to translate issues and engage at the right time – NETWORK to provide a broad range of outside sources, antennas across EU and beyond; increasingly involves semiautomated scanning
  15. 15. iK RAHS ANZ HSN Meta RAHS Risk Assessment & Horizon Scanning AJASN Aus Joint Agencies scanning Network AJASN SS ANZ HSN Meta Aus & NZ Horizon Scanning Network Metafore/ SemaDyson iK iKNow SS Sigma Scan
  16. 16. • Need for sponsor – what question are we trying to answer? – – – – – – Exploring different visions Analysing trends Analysing drivers Creating different scenarios Building the strategy options Selection of priorities • Links from Strategic Intelligence and to Selecting Priorities 10/25/13 16
  17. 17. How to integrate the process into real life? Example – preparing H2030 Activity Process management 2012 2013 2014 2015 St art 2016 2017 2018 2019 Mid-term evaluation of H2020 Phase I Involves European Parliament and Commission. Strategic intelligence Phase II Sense-making Phase III Selecting priorities Phase IV Implementation Involves input from knowledge stakeholders and MS Involves MS and Commission. Involves Council. Involves MS and Commission. The process is NOT linear but cyclic with constant feedback (Ref. Slide No 3). 10/25/13 17
  18. 18. If you would like to get our monthly enewsletter eSAMI ---- please ask – For details of our training courses (with the Horizon Scanning Centre of the Foresight Unit) see For details of our Blowing the Cobwebs off our Mind events, please ask, Questions and comments?? 18