Indicus Methodology
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The document discusses Indicus Analytics, a company that provides granular consumer data and insights for India. It analyzes large datasets covering 20 years from various national and proprietary surveys. Using econometric modeling and statistical analysis, it estimates parameters like incomes, expenditures, and savings at sub-district levels. The data helps clients understand consumer characteristics, identify potential markets, and prioritize markets.
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♣ A probabilistic ‘person profile’ based on where people stay, work and travel, including elements like income band, share-of-wallet spends, SEC profile, etc.
♣ A richer ‘place profile’ based on location, profile of catchment areas surrounding the location, likely income profile of visitors & an idea of their share-of-wallet spends, etc.
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PREDICTING GROWTH OF URBAN AGGLOMERATIONS THROUGH FRACTAL ANALYSIS OF GEO-SPATIAL DATA
Location Analytics is one of the fastest emerging fields in the broad area of Business Intelligence/Data Science. By
some industry estimates, almost 80% of all data has a location dimension to it. Consequently, identification of
trends and patterns in spatially distributed information has far reaching applications ranging from urban planning, to
logistics and supply chain management, location based marketing, sales territory planning and retail store location.
In view of this, we present an approach based on Fractal Analysis (FA) of highly granular geo-spatial data.
Specifically, we use proprietary data available at approximately1 square km level for New Delhi, India provided by Indicus Analytics (India’s leading economic data analytics firm based in New Delhi). We compare and contrast the patterns and insights generated using the FA approach with other more traditional approaches such as spatial to correlation and structural similarity indices. Preliminary results indicate that there are indeed “selfsimilar” local patterns that are completely missed by spatial correlation that are accurately captured by the more sophisticated FA approach. These patterns provide deep insights into the underlying socio-economic and demographic processes and can be used to predict the spatial distribution of these variables in the future. For example, questions such as what are the pockets of population growth in a city and how will businesses and government respond to that growth can be answered using the proposed approach.Exploring the Luxury Clusters of India
India’s strong consumption story relies on its demographic structure, which, at this
point in time, is highly favourable compared to most other emerging nations. As per
the UN population statistics, this favourable demographic dividend will last for another
25–30 years. Before that, most other emerging nations would have already begun to
witness a slowdown in the growth of young (working-age) population.
The ensuing benefits with regard to the rising income and household spending would
provide a significant boost to the consumption-driven growth story of India. A glimpse
of the changing pattern of India’s consumption is already visible in the breakdown
of private final consumption spending data provided by the government. There is
a marked increase in spending on lifestyle products and services such as hotels,
mobiles, transportation and other miscellaneous goods. As against that, spending on
essentials has only remained stable.
International retailers are well aware of these benefits that the Indian economy offers.
Barring few legislative challenges that could be tackled through the policy reforms and
opening up of the retail sector, retailers have often expressed their intention to enter
and invest in India’s attractive retail sector. This is very well reflected in AT Kearney’s
Global Retail Development Index 2012, where India ranks as the fifth most attractive
retail market for international retailers. The retail sector is a significant contributor to India’s economic activity. Though a
direct measurement of the retail sector is difficult to derive through government
statistics, the trade, hotels and restaurant sectors come close to giving us an
estimate of its contribution. That component, in which retail (both organised and
unorganised) is the dominant activity, accounts for around 18% of India’s GDP.
Within the services sector of India, this component is the largest contributor
to the economy. Many institutions, however, may not agree with this possibly
understated measurement of the retail sector, as it may not accurately account
for the unorganised sector. For instance, as per the estimates of the Associated
Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ASSOCHAM) presented in one of its retail
reports of 2012, the contribution of both organised and unorganised retail stood
at 22% of GDP. This would mean that Indian retail sector size should measure
closer to INR 19.2 trillion in 2012. Leading research institutions such as AT
Kearney and ASSOCHAM estimate this sector to grow at around 15% y-o-y over
the next three–five years as against a 12%–13% nominal growth of India’s GDP
estimated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Going by that logic, the retail
sector should reach a size of INR 34 trillion by 2016. This is a significant growth.
The sector is also an important contributor towards the socioeconomic well-being
of the economy as it employs close to 9.4% of India’s labour force, as per the
association.
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A recipe for disaster
So the Food Security Bill is through. More than two thirds of the country’s population has now been promised highly subsidized food. Congress and UPA will get a couple of extra percent points of votes, add another 2-3 percentage points because of the good monsoons and you get a good enough swing for it to come back next year. The BJP was checkmated as it was impossible for it to play its usual flawless doublespeak.
I am asked what could be bad about ensuring elimination of hunger and malnutrition. I would like to ask a counter question? What is good about theFood Security Bill?
It promises to finally eliminate hunger and malnutrition, they say. How? Because now the poor can buy wheat, rice and coarse cereal at highly subsidized rates. How will the poor be identified I ask; that will happen they say. Where will the poor buy from I ask; the Public Distribution System (PDS)they say. Where? I ask again. The PDS shop, they say. And why will the PDS shop now suddenly start working when it has not for so many decades? Because now it’s a right, and people can demand redressal from the courts, they say.
So let’s grant this – the PDS will now start to function because the government will better use better technology. They will use GIS, GPS, perhaps Aadhar card and biometrics, etc. and this will eliminate the problems that the PDS system has. How will it work? The government will buy grains from production centres, store and transport them to consumption centres, and then sell them at subsidized rates through the public distribution system. Each of these will cost. Of course the PDS system itself will need to be strengthened almost everywhere. This will also cost. The high-tech sounding technology is not costless; the Aadhar number needs biometric identification, etc. etc. All of this will cost a lot. A paper coming from the government’s own Commission for Agri Cost and Prices (CACP) puts the total figure at about 682 thousand crores over a three year period. It is highly unlikely that the government can spend this, and the system cannot work well unless it is implemented very well. Chidambaram fighting his needless forex battles cannot loosen the purse strings. And even if he did, no one in this government has the ability to implement it. And without some serious money backed by serious project management skills the subsidized food will not reach where it is intended to. There will therefore be leakages. The estimated leakage itself is about 200 thousand crore by the CACP. I think it will be more as leakage is not only amount getting diverted, but also the amount wasted. When the numbers are so high it is obvious what kind of people will like to get into politics and into the government, and which ones would stay away.But these are all nitty-gritties of implementation. The Food Security Bill is inherently flawed in many other ways.Who will have control over this whole process?
Market Skyline of India 2013-14
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The Case for Increasing FDI Caps in Insurance
The Case for Increasing FDI Caps in Insurance
The history of India’s political economy is replete with missed opportunities. The approach to growth and investment has been often stranded in the many romantic notions of selfreliance and what constitutes national interest. In every
decade since Independence, the approach to foreign direct investment has been influenced by a mistrust triggered by a colonial hangover. Every time India has opened its doors – or windows if you please – to foreign investment, it has been characterised by gradualism in the wake of much opposition. The debates around opening or expanding FDI are similar – as it was when telecom or banking opened up for foreign investment. What is important to recognise is that every such initiative has been beneficial, delivering greater common good.
Higher economic growth is driven by competition and consumer choice. Competition drives efficiency and efficiency drives growth. This is true of every country that has done well economically. It is also true of India since 1991, in segments where competition has been introduced. Any attempt to artificially introduce protection always has costs. Inefficient producers are protected, but at the expense of consumers. Consumers suffer from higher prices,bad service and limited choice. This is straightforward under-graduate economic theory. The gains to inefficient producers are more than neutralized by losses to consumers, leading to an overall deadweight welfare loss to the country.
In this argument, the colour of the competition, whether it is domestic or foreign, does not matter. In addition, there is the macroeconomic argument about a current account deficit having to be met through capital account inflows and non-debt-creating FDI inflows are preferable to debt-creating capital inflows. While these broad arguments about competition and FDI are accepted, the question to ask is, why should the insurance sector not be subject to these compelling arguments? Is there anything special about insurance that rational arguments should not be applied to
this sector? In every sector where India has opened up to FDI, be it manufacturing or be it services, two propositions are empirically evident. First, liberalization helps consumers. Second, fears about inefficient producers being eliminated are also vastly exaggerated.
Instead, producers of goods and services adapt and survive, based on access to capital, technology, knowhow, improved management practices and customer orientation. Therefore, protection not only harms the cause of consumers, it also harms the cause of producers. There is no reason why insurance should be treated differently. And economic logic and rationale should not be conditional on whether one is within the government or is in opposition.
Economic freedom of the states of india 2012
The Economic Freedom of the States of India 2012 estimates economic freedom in the 20 biggest Indian states, based on data for 2011. The aim of this report—to measure the level of economic freedom within India—grows out of a larger project begun in the 1980s by the Fraser Institute and culminating in the annual Economic Freedom of the World
report (co-published by the Cato Institute in the United States). That exercise has proved fruitful in establishing a strong empirical relationship between economic freedom and prosperity, growth, and improvements in the whole range of indicators of human well being. The global report has also produced an explosion of research by leading universities, think tanks and international organisations on the critical role of economic freedom to human progress, including its importance to sustaining civil and political liberty. The Cato Institute is pleased to co-publish the present report on India with Indicus Analytics and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation at a time when both India’s high growth prospects and its commitment to reform have come under scrutiny.
The main highlights of this study are as follows.
1. The top state in India in economic freedom in 2011 was Gujarat. It displaced Tamil Nadu, which had been the top state in 2009. Gujarat’s freedom index score has been rising fast, and at 0.64 it is now far ahead of second-placed Tamil Nadu (0.56). Madhya Pradesh (0.56) is close behind in third position, Haryana (0.55) retains fourth position and Himachal (0.53) retains fifth position.
2. The bottom three states in 2011 were, in reverse order, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. In 2009, the reverse order was Bihar, Uttarakhand and Assam. Uttarakhand has moved up sharply from 19th to 14th position, and this improved freedom is reflected in its average GDP growth rate of 12.82 per cent in 2004-2011, the fastest among all states. This is an impressive achievement for a once-backward state.
3. Earlier the median score for economic freedom for all states had declined from 0.38 in 2005 to 0.36 in 2009. But it has now improved substantially to 0.41 in 2011. This is good news. Still the median score lags way behind Gujarat’s 0.64, so other states have a long way to go.
4. The biggest improvement has been registered by Madhya Pradesh. Its freedom index score rose from 0.42 in 2009 to 0.56 in 2011, enabling it to move up from 6th to 3rd position. This improved economic freedom was associated with acceleration in its GDP growth. This averaged 6 per cent per year from 2004-2009, but then accelerated to 9 per cent per year in 2009-2011.
5. The biggest decline in economic freedom has been recorded by Jharkhand, which slumped from 8th to 19th position. Its score declined from 0.38 to 0.31. Unsurprisingly, its GDP growth has averaged only 4.6 per cent in 2004-2011, one of the lowest among all states . Jharkhand has special problems as a heavily forested state suffering from Maoist insurrections.
Gujarat - the Social Sectors
Education is clearly important in tapping the so-called demographic dividend. There is nothing automatic about a demographic dividend materializing. Among other things, that is a function of health and education outcomes. More specifically, there is question of skills. The overall skills deficit has often been flagged. For instance, in 2002, the S.P. Gupta Special Group constituted by the Planning Commission stated, “It should be noted, however, that on the average the skilled labour force at present is hardly around 6-8 per cent of the total, compared to more than 60 per cent in most of the developed and emerging developing countries.” In 2001, the Montek Singh Ahluwalia Task Force , again constituted by the Planning Commission, stated, “Only 5% of the Indian labour force in this age category has vocational skills.” While the numbers are marginally different, the Eleventh Five Year Plan document adds the following. “The NSS 61st Round results show that among persons of age 15-29 years, only about 2% are reported to have received formal vocational training and another 8% reported to have received non-formal vocational training indicating that very few young persons actually enter the world of work with any kind of formal vocational training.” Among the youth, most of those with formal training are in Kerala, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat. A better indicator of a State’s performance is the share of the young population that has some variety of formal training. In this, Maharashtra, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh perform well. Is this because there is better training capacity and infrastructure? Is it because industrial activity exists in these States? Is it because there is a positive correlation between some minimum level of educational attainment and acquisition of formal training? The answer is probably a combination of various factors.
Gujarat the growth story
Growth StoryG rowth is never an end in itself. It is a means to an end, especially because by growth one typically means growth in gross State domestic product (GSDP). In the context of a country, GSDP is akin to GDP (gross domestic product), the total value of goods and services produced in a country over a fixed time period,typically one year. GDP isn’t the same as GNI (gross national income), since GNI also includesnet factor income from abroad. The principle is no different for a State and GSDP is notnecessarily the same as gross state income (GSI). The difference can be important for a Statewhere migration and remittances are major variables. However, having accepted the point, oneis stuck, since no credible estimates exist for GSI. One only has figures on GSDP and mustaccept it as a surrogate indicator. GSDP figures are compiled by Directorates of Economics andStatistics of different State governments. They are then “vetted” by Central StatisticalOrganization (CSO) and finalized. GSDP figures can be in current prices, or in constant prices.If we do not wish to get carried away by inflation, we should focus on constant price numbers.In the present case, this means that everything is expressed in 2004-05 prices.
Indian cement industry a technology perspective
Indian cement industry has passed through many ups and down. It was under strict
government control till 1982. Subsequently, it was partially decontrolled and in 1989, the
industry was opened for free market competition along with withdrawal of price and
distribution controls. Finally, the industry was completely de-licensed in July 1991 under the
policy of economic liberalization and the industry witnessed spectacular growth in production
as well as capacity.
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The organized sector in India created 346,000 jobs
The organized sector in India created 346,000 jobs between July and September 2011 and is expected to add another 326,400 by end 2011, according to the latest findings of Ma Foi Randstad Employment Trends Survey – Wave 3.
The survey was conducted among 676 companies across 13 industry segments panning 8 Indian cities. The feedback was gathered from the top HR personnel and senior management of companies, who shared valuable insights on the job creation during the last (July – September) and the current (October – December) quarters of 2011.
The current slowdown in the economy and increasing domestic inflation has resulted in sectoral variation in the employment outlook among sectors and although new jobs continue to be added, it is at a slower pace. According to the survey, the Healthcare sector continues to lead in job generation by adding 60,400 jobs in Q3 (July – September) 2011, followed by Hospitality sector with 48,400 jobs and IT & ITeS sector with 46,600 jobs during the same period.
This is however lesser than the numbers (Healthcare - 63,800 / Hospitality - 54,400 / IT & ITeS - 55,500) predicted at the beginning of the quarter three. These sectors are expected to continue as the lead job generators in the coming quarter with Healthcare expecting to add 58,700 jobs followed by Hospitality & ITeS adding 40,000 plus jobs each.
Among the cities, Mumbai added 28,500 jobs, followed by Delhi & NCR adding 27,000 and Chennai adding 15,500. However, the total job generation by these 3 cities was lower by 6,100 jobs, against the original prediction (Mumbai - 32,300 / New Delhi & NCR – 27,900 / Chennai – 16,900) at the beginning of Q3. These cities are expected to generate a total of 69,200 jobs in the current quarter.
Tracking urban households
Household consumption patterns depend on many factors, and the age of the chief wage earner is a key determinant. The Indicus Indian Urban Consumer Spectrum classifies urban households into three broad categories: younger years, in which the chief wage earner is predominantly less than 34 years of age; middle years, in which the chief wage earner is mainly in the age group of 35 to 54, and mature years, households in which the chief wage earner is usually over the age of 54.
At each life stage, there are different income and consumption patterns; as the chief wage earner moves into the older years, the family structure also changes. So the category of younger years does not necessarily denote younger households; in fact, households in mature years have more than 40% of its population under the age of 18.
Creating consumer segments by the age of the chief wage earner of the household reveals patterns that are otherwise hidden in data. Take for instance occupations—the sector that employs the highest share of chief wage earners in younger and middle years is manufacturing, which takes up a lower share for chief wage earners in mature years. On the other hand, manufacturing falls to second slot for chief wage earners in mature years; and more interestingly, public administration/defence accounts for the third largest share of employment in this segment. This does point to the changing structure of employment over time, and also gives an indication of the income and consumption behaviour of these households.
Then there is the size of the household—households where the chief wage earner is in his younger years are to a large extent small in size; close to 60% are single member households—the earning member in the city is single or married and living away from his family. This is the smallest segment, comprising less than 15% of urban households, and around 5% of urban population. The largest segment, which accounts for more than 60% of urban households, is those in which chief wage earners are in their mature years; here, a majority have five or more members and almost a quarter have more than two earning members. This, therefore, forms a bulk of urban consumer spends; and, since it includes senior citizens as well as minors, it caters to the needs of all age groups.
The segment in which chief wage earners are in their middle years accounts for more than a quarter of urban households. This segment stands out as the one in which almost all households have minors; this would, therefore, be extremely cued into the needs of growing children—whether it comes to education, food or entertainment, it is in these households that children rule.
The younger years segment feeds into the others as chief wage earners marry, or bring their families to the cities and have children, save to buy houses, two-wheelers, cars and so on, and the maturity of the chief wage earner naturally shows up in higher incomes and asset penetration across the groups.
Small durables a grwoing market
mall durables—the little items that personalize households and make each home different—can be divided into four main groups: furniture and fixtures, household appliances, recreational goods, and other personal goods including mobile handsets, watches, clocks, plastic goods and decorative items. As a group, they account for less than 2% of total household expenses, as other basic necessities such as food, travel and rent take up the bulk of the budget.
The largest sub-groups in this category are other personal goods and household appliances, accounting for more than 80% and 11%, respectively, of the total expense within the group. There are variations across states. In Chandigarh, Goa and Kerala, household appliances take up close to 20% of the expenses in this category, double the average.
Within this group of small durables, there is a wide variety, with prices and brands to suit every pocket, and as households move up the income ladder, they spend on higher-value items within the group; per-household annual expense on small durables, therefore, rises from Rs. 1,255 on an average in the lowest income segment, which are households earning less than Rs. 1.5 lakh a year, to Rs. 11,807 in the highest income segment of households earning more than Rs. 10 lakh a year.
POLICY BRIEF ON FINANCIAL INCLUSION IN INDIA: E-money issuers- Risks, Rewards...
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With technology based solutions seen as key to achieving financial inclusion, the role of e-money becomes important in reaching out to the unbanked masses. While regulatory space in India has been slowing opening up to allow non-banks to act as e-money issuers and prudential norms are in place, regulatory concerns remain regarding the safety of customer funds and the potential impact of e-money on monetary aggregates. The regulator’s dilemma, as described by David Porteous, is whether or not to implement measures that may hinder expansion of access to nonusers in the interest of greater protection for those who already have access, and it is for each country to evolve models and practices appropriate to their economy. It is however instructive to absorb lessons from international experiences that exemplify how regulations can evolve to meet the challenges involved in non-bank e-money issuers, all with the aim of bringing about universal financial inclusion. POLICY BRIEF ON FINANCIAL INCLUSION IN INDIA: The M-PESA Model- An Overview
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M-PESA is a mobile based transfer of money between customers, facilitated by network of retail agents. Kenya is the first country to have adopted M-PESA where the model witnessed huge success and is contributing big way in enabling financial inclusion in the country. Deployment of M-PESA in India can bring similar benefits as experienced in Kenya. Growing mobile penetration in rural areas would ensure that people are able to benefit from mobile based money transfer concept. Indian regulatory system has also been gearing up to allow technology benefits in enabling financial inclusion, developments are only at introductory stage. More from Indicus Analytics Private Limited (20)
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一比一原版加拿大渥太华大学毕业证（uottawa毕业证书）如何办理
一模一样【q/微:1954292140】【加拿大渥太华大学毕业证（uottawa毕业证书）成绩单Offer】【q/微:1954292140】（留信学历认证永久存档查询）采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。
【业务选择办理准则】
一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份就读学校的毕业证【q/微:1954292140】文凭即可
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三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
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→ 【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）
我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子 我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家 不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间
对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。
选择实体注册公司办理，更放心，更安全！我们的承诺：可来公司面谈，可签订合同，会陪同客户一起到教育部认证窗口递交认证材料，客户在教育部官方认证查询网站查询到认证通过结果后付款，不成功不收费！
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Indicus Methodology
- 1. I want to know consumer characteristics at a granular level I want to identify potential markets Reliable data on India How much do people earn, spend and save ? Where do my products fit? www.indicus.net
- 3. Large raw data sets Over 20 years time series National Sample Surveys, NDSSPI, NFHS, Proprietary surveys, Economic Survey of India, ASI, Others Large aggregated data sets Over 20 years time series Reserve bank of India, Census of India, Central Statistical Organization, Ministry of Finance, ASI, SSI commission, Proprietary data sets . ECONOMETRIC MODELING, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, NEURAL NETWORKS Identify at a sub-district level Distribution of assets, incomes, expenditures and savings Key drivers – capital flows, infrastructure, and human capital Macro-economic conditions Calibrate Based on latest data releases of CSO, Registrar General of India and others Proprietary Estimation Model Samples representing over 2 million households www.indicus.net
- 4. Incomes, expenditure, growth, savings, investment, habits, society, development, infrastructure, housing… To find precise estimates of a Range of Parameters At various geographic levels Separated for urban and rural segments Which go into a range of products………………… District GDP of India , Market Skyline of India , City Skyline of India , Indian Financial Scape , Indian Development Landscape , Housing Skyline of India , City Skyline of India – Neighbourhood Series ………………… To address different needs www.indicus.net
- 5. For a range of purposes Analyze Markets Monitor sales efforts Benchmark sales against potential Market Products Identify Potential Markets Target locations Know consumer characteristics Business expansion Identify demand potential of select locations Deliver services where they are required Prioritize & rank markets www.indicus.net
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