The document summarizes the Ma Foi Randstad Employment Trends Survey (MEtS) for the fourth quarter of 2011 and projected trends for the first quarter of 2012. The survey polled 639 companies across 13 sectors to assess employment trends in the organized sector. Key findings included expected increases in employment in sectors such as financial services, IT, and healthcare, while manufacturing saw more muted growth. The report analyzed trends by sector, salary increases, new hire experience and functions.
The organized sector in India created 346,000 jobs between July and September 2011 and is expected to add another 326,400 by end 2011, according to the latest findings of Ma Foi Randstad Employment Trends Survey – Wave 3.
The survey was conducted among 676 companies across 13 industry segments panning 8 Indian cities. The feedback was gathered from the top HR personnel and senior management of companies, who shared valuable insights on the job creation during the last (July – September) and the current (October – December) quarters of 2011.
The current slowdown in the economy and increasing domestic inflation has resulted in sectoral variation in the employment outlook among sectors and although new jobs continue to be added, it is at a slower pace. According to the survey, the Healthcare sector continues to lead in job generation by adding 60,400 jobs in Q3 (July – September) 2011, followed by Hospitality sector with 48,400 jobs and IT & ITeS sector with 46,600 jobs during the same period.
This is however lesser than the numbers (Healthcare - 63,800 / Hospitality - 54,400 / IT & ITeS - 55,500) predicted at the beginning of the quarter three. These sectors are expected to continue as the lead job generators in the coming quarter with Healthcare expecting to add 58,700 jobs followed by Hospitality & ITeS adding 40,000 plus jobs each.
Among the cities, Mumbai added 28,500 jobs, followed by Delhi & NCR adding 27,000 and Chennai adding 15,500. However, the total job generation by these 3 cities was lower by 6,100 jobs, against the original prediction (Mumbai - 32,300 / New Delhi & NCR – 27,900 / Chennai – 16,900) at the beginning of Q3. These cities are expected to generate a total of 69,200 jobs in the current quarter.
The organized sector in India created 346,000 jobs between July and September 2011 and is expected to add another 326,400 by end 2011, according to the latest findings of Ma Foi Randstad Employment Trends Survey – Wave 3.
The survey was conducted among 676 companies across 13 industry segments panning 8 Indian cities. The feedback was gathered from the top HR personnel and senior management of companies, who shared valuable insights on the job creation during the last (July – September) and the current (October – December) quarters of 2011.
The current slowdown in the economy and increasing domestic inflation has resulted in sectoral variation in the employment outlook among sectors and although new jobs continue to be added, it is at a slower pace. According to the survey, the Healthcare sector continues to lead in job generation by adding 60,400 jobs in Q3 (July – September) 2011, followed by Hospitality sector with 48,400 jobs and IT & ITeS sector with 46,600 jobs during the same period.
This is however lesser than the numbers (Healthcare - 63,800 / Hospitality - 54,400 / IT & ITeS - 55,500) predicted at the beginning of the quarter three. These sectors are expected to continue as the lead job generators in the coming quarter with Healthcare expecting to add 58,700 jobs followed by Hospitality & ITeS adding 40,000 plus jobs each.
Among the cities, Mumbai added 28,500 jobs, followed by Delhi & NCR adding 27,000 and Chennai adding 15,500. However, the total job generation by these 3 cities was lower by 6,100 jobs, against the original prediction (Mumbai - 32,300 / New Delhi & NCR – 27,900 / Chennai – 16,900) at the beginning of Q3. These cities are expected to generate a total of 69,200 jobs in the current quarter.
India Budget 2012-13 - Analysis by Prabhu SrinivasanPrabhu Srinivasan
Budget 2012-13 has invited more criticisms than appreciations from the various stakeholders of the country. Given the unanticipated difficult situation the global markets are currently in, and the multiple problems that the Indian economy is facing, such as weakening of Rupee against US Dollars, High cost of funds, Inflationary pressures, and High unemployment levels to name a few, the finance ministry has opted for a stringent budget to defy these problems and bring the economy back on a sustainable growth path. I would like to conclude the analysis with my view that the key lies in implementation of the plans. Having observed in the past, that implementation of various initiatives have seen multiple road-blocks stalling them abruptly, we shall try to learn from our past to ensure growth and prosperity of the world’s largest democracy!
An overview of india japan trade relation today and tomorrowmarketxceldata
Economic relations between India and Japan have vast potential for growth, given the obvious complementarities that exist between the two Asian economies. Japan's interest in India is increasing due to a variety of reasons including India's big and growing market and its resources, especially the human resources. The signing of the historic India-Japan Comprehensive Economic PartnershipAgreement (CEPA) and its implementation from August 2011 has accelerated economic and commercial relations between the two countries.
For Inquiry Visit Us: https://www.market-xcel.com/contact.html
Industrial production growth continues to remain tepid, thus necessitating the need for urgent redressal steps from the government in the form of expediting execution of approved projects and providing a competitive market for coal and mining sectors. Global headwinds have not receded fully, with growth in Euro Area expected to remain lackadaisical for few more quarters. Japan and China are passing through a phase of below potential growth too. Under this backdrop of subdued global growth, policymakers need to announce more policy actions like 'Make in India' initiative and flexible labour policy to help lift domestic growth to a higher trajectory.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we cover the latest IMF’s World Economic Outlook and the issue of deflation facing many advanced economies in the Section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, we analyse the trends emanating out of the recent releases on IIP, Inflation, Monetary Policy and Trade. We also discuss the Corporate performance for Q2FY15 in this section. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on the MSME sector. In Focus of the Month, sectoral experts provide their insightful viewpoints on the topic ‘Coal: Challenges and Way Forward’.
Kelly´s Global Talent Market Quarterly provides a summary of the current economic and labor market conditions around the world and gives insight into how they might impact you.
September 2016 U.S. employment update and outlookJLL
Despite employment growth in August falling below expectations, the overall U.S. unemployment rate held steady at 4.9 percent as growth in the workforce aligned with employment gains.
Ppt on Employment Problem By Mandar Abhyankar The excess of population is actually affecting the employment in India. The opportunities are less as compared to the number of employees. Thus, many people remain unemployed.
India Budget 2012-13 - Analysis by Prabhu SrinivasanPrabhu Srinivasan
Budget 2012-13 has invited more criticisms than appreciations from the various stakeholders of the country. Given the unanticipated difficult situation the global markets are currently in, and the multiple problems that the Indian economy is facing, such as weakening of Rupee against US Dollars, High cost of funds, Inflationary pressures, and High unemployment levels to name a few, the finance ministry has opted for a stringent budget to defy these problems and bring the economy back on a sustainable growth path. I would like to conclude the analysis with my view that the key lies in implementation of the plans. Having observed in the past, that implementation of various initiatives have seen multiple road-blocks stalling them abruptly, we shall try to learn from our past to ensure growth and prosperity of the world’s largest democracy!
An overview of india japan trade relation today and tomorrowmarketxceldata
Economic relations between India and Japan have vast potential for growth, given the obvious complementarities that exist between the two Asian economies. Japan's interest in India is increasing due to a variety of reasons including India's big and growing market and its resources, especially the human resources. The signing of the historic India-Japan Comprehensive Economic PartnershipAgreement (CEPA) and its implementation from August 2011 has accelerated economic and commercial relations between the two countries.
For Inquiry Visit Us: https://www.market-xcel.com/contact.html
Industrial production growth continues to remain tepid, thus necessitating the need for urgent redressal steps from the government in the form of expediting execution of approved projects and providing a competitive market for coal and mining sectors. Global headwinds have not receded fully, with growth in Euro Area expected to remain lackadaisical for few more quarters. Japan and China are passing through a phase of below potential growth too. Under this backdrop of subdued global growth, policymakers need to announce more policy actions like 'Make in India' initiative and flexible labour policy to help lift domestic growth to a higher trajectory.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we cover the latest IMF’s World Economic Outlook and the issue of deflation facing many advanced economies in the Section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, we analyse the trends emanating out of the recent releases on IIP, Inflation, Monetary Policy and Trade. We also discuss the Corporate performance for Q2FY15 in this section. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on the MSME sector. In Focus of the Month, sectoral experts provide their insightful viewpoints on the topic ‘Coal: Challenges and Way Forward’.
Kelly´s Global Talent Market Quarterly provides a summary of the current economic and labor market conditions around the world and gives insight into how they might impact you.
September 2016 U.S. employment update and outlookJLL
Despite employment growth in August falling below expectations, the overall U.S. unemployment rate held steady at 4.9 percent as growth in the workforce aligned with employment gains.
Ppt on Employment Problem By Mandar Abhyankar The excess of population is actually affecting the employment in India. The opportunities are less as compared to the number of employees. Thus, many people remain unemployed.
According to the five income-segment classification of the Indicus urban consumer expenditure spectrum, in the second rung of affluence, or the upper middle class, among urban Indian households are those who earn between Rs. 5 lakh and Rs. 10 lakh annually. The population in these households comprise a little less than 10% of all urban households, but contribute around one-fifth of the total urban savings.
It is the upper-income segments that form the big savers of the country, with high-disposable incomes, making them attractive markets for financial products. They are also the spenders in the high value category, contributing to about 17% of urban consumer expenditure in India. While this share is approximately the same as the lowest two income segments, being a relatively smaller segment, expenditure per household would be relatively higher. Moreover, the type of goods and services consumed would, of course, be quite different across the income segments.
The organized sector in India created 704,800 jobs between January 2011 and June 2011 and 369,200 more jobs are expected to be created by September 2011, according to the latest findings of Ma Foi Randstad Employment Trends Survey – Wave2.
The survey was conducted among 690 companies across 13 industry segments panning 8 Indian cities. The respondents included members of senior management and HR professionals who were questioned on specific areas relating to hiring plans across various timelines, manpower requirements for the current quarter vis-à-vis the last two quarters, and their views on how they see the job market to be in the year 2011. While the Indian economy is passing through a delicate phase with certain sectors looking at a bleak market in the near future, there are others who have performed well and continue to perform as per predictions made in the beginning of the year, thus reflecting buoyancy among employers.
According to the survey, the Healthcare sector has remained the largest employment generator with 1, 15,000 jobs created in H1, followed by the Hospitality sector with 94,000 jobs created during the same period. The IT/ITeS sector, which witnessed a turnaround in 2010-11 by posting a double digit growth, continues to grow at the same pace and has added 91,000 jobs in H1. In the cities, New Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai continue to lead the job market job generating 1,39,700 jobs between January and June 2011, as predicted earlier this year
The structured analysis of MEtS was executed by India’s leading economic research firm Indicus Analytics
Driven by India’s economic turnaround post downturn, hiring in the organized sector is set to pick up at a greater pace in the second quarter reveals the first quarter results of the Ma Foi Randstad Employment Trends Survey.
Driven by India’s economic turnaround post downturn, hiring in the organized sector is set to pick up at a greater pace in the second quarter reveals the first quarter results of the Ma Foi Randstad Employment Trends Survey.
The findings of the study for the period of January – March 2010 was released by Mr. K. Pandia Rajan, CEO, Ma Foi Randstad (India & Sri Lanka).
Ma Foi Randstad is the leading integrated HR services provider in the country and has been conducting the employment trends survey since 2004. This study is India’s largest job market study.
In March 2010, Ma Foi Randstad predicted creation of 1 million jobs in the year 2010.The latest projection for the period of April to June (Q2) and estimates of actual job creation in January to March 2010 (Q1) for the organized sector was arrived at, after surveying the employment trends in 650 companies across 13 industry sectors in eight major cities - Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Mumbai and Pune. These companies were queried about (a) hiring in the first 3 months of the year and (b) hiring intentions over the next 3 months.
The study reveals creation of 1,53,564 jobs during Jan - March 2010 and 3,47,463 jobs are getting created in the period of April – June 2010.
Sector-wise Employment Trends:
According to the survey, the employment trend across all sectors – BFSI, IT & ITES, Pharma, Healthcare, Trade including Consumer, Retail & Services, Energy, Transport, Storage & Communication, Real Estate & Construction, Hospitality, Media & Entertainment, Non-Machinery Manufacturing, Manufacturing of Machineries & Equipments, Education, Training & Consultancy are on the same card in the first quarter and are expected to continue at a faster pace in the second quarter.
The recovery from economic crisis has further strengthened the momentum of the Healthcare sector which has reported the greatest employment generation of 52,752 new jobs in Q1, followed by Hospitality with 21,500 in the same period. Education, Training & Consultancy sector added 16, 200 new jobs in Q1.
Projection for Q2 is that healthcare sectcor again will add the largest number of new jobs – 96248. Real estate and construction sector is estimated to add 52115, the 2nd highest job creator in the economy. This will be closely followed by Hospitality sector that is estimated to create 49000 jobs. IT and ITES sectcor is estimated to add 34000 new jobs; Media and entertainment sector to add 28700 jobs; Education, Training and Consultancy to add 23200 jobs. Non-machinery Manufacturing (17,300), BFSI (15,800), Transport, Storage and Communication (8,800), Pharma (6100), Energy (5,900), Manufacture of machinery and equipment (5300) and Trade including consumer, retail and services (5,000) are expected to pick up hiring momentum in Q2 of the year.
There is a significant increase of hiring intentions in Q2 vis-à-vis Q1 for sectors of Real Estate and Construction, Media and Entertainment and Healthcare.
City-wise Employment Trends:
Delhi & NCR is expected to add 38, 350 jobs (added 17650 in Q1 and likely to add 20700 in Q2) by June 2010. The expectation of better performance across sectors has increased optimism among companies, resulting in increase in hiring intent. Mumbai is expected to add 27, 650 jobs (12750 in Q1 and 14900 in Q2) and Chennai is expected to add 11,900 jobs (5600 in Q1 and 6300 in Q2) by June 2010. Following these top three cities are Kolkatta – 8350 jobs, Bangalore – 6800 jobs, Hyderabad – 6200 jobs, Pune – 5400 jobs and Ahmedabad – 3260 jobs.
Sector-wise Fresher/
ChoiceBroking - Q2FY16 GDP growth at 7.4%; robust manufacturing expansion indicates revival in economic scenario. To read our monthly economic outlook please click here http://bit.ly/1QTqJKI
Current State of the Indian EconomyCautious optimism for the.docxfaithxdunce63732
Current State of the Indian Economy
Cautious optimism for the future
February 2013
www.deloitte.com/in
2
The Big Picture
The Indian Economy has experienced
its worst slowdown in nearly a decade
on the back of global contractionary
headwinds, domestic macro-economic
imbalances and policy reversals on the
fiscal front, 2012 has been a challenging
year for the economy. The year started
with news that the previous fiscal’s
fourth quarter GDP had dropped to
5.5%. That coupled with low growth,
macro-economic issues such as high
fiscal deficit, expansionary subsidies and
worsening current account balance has
added to the slowdown.
The 2011-12 Budget had proposed
to amend the 1961 income tax
law by introducing retrospective
tax adjustments and General Anti-
Avoidance Rules (GAAR). These steps
were viewed negatively by foreign
investors. Subsequent downgrading
of the Indian economic outlook from
‘stable’ to ‘negative’ by a major rating
agency, led to continued downward
pressure on the investment climate.
Additionally, as fiscal conditions
worsened over the year, export
numbers were revised in light of data
discrepancies leading to a widening of
the current account deficit.
In the second half of the fiscal, the
Government proactively intervened
with phased reforms to stabilize the
economy. Measures were taken to
reduce subsidies (oil, fertilizers) which
would in turn lower the fiscal deficit.
The Government also took concrete
actions to attract foreign direct
investment (FDI) and strengthen the
rupee. However, the impact of these
policy reforms remains uncertain in
the short term. Concerns continue
to exist over the current account
deficit scenario, prevailing supply side
constraints, inadequate infrastructure
investments and long term policy
directions.
In face of a perceivably weak macro-
economic climate, a well-planned
economic revival policy is required to
steer the Indian Economy back on the
growth path. Even though the long
term prospects of the economy look
promising, cautious optimism is the
tone in the short to medium term.
Global Linkages
Performances of advanced economies
continue to weigh on India’s growth
story.
The World Economic Forum’s annual
meeting for 2013 was held in Davos,
Switzerland in January 2013, bringing
together more than 2,000 top business
leaders, international political leaders,
Current State of the Indian Economy Cautious optimism for the future 3
Economic opportunity is dwindling. While reforms have
been initiated, further action to create infrastructure, boost
savings and generate growth will be welcome
selected intellectuals and journalists to
discuss the most pressing issues facing
the world. The IMF, in its update of
World Economic Outlook, lowered the
world GDP growth projections by 0.1%
each for 2013 & 2014 as compared to
the October 2012 projections. This is on
account of downside risks that continue
in light of renewed s.
The year 2010 saw major economies registering modest growth and India on a balanced growth path. India story gained primacy at the beginning of 2010, with the changing market scenarios across the world.
The outlook is more or less stable across sectors over the
months. The optimism of early 2010 was further
strengthened due to a positive economic outlook, but the
recent political developments marked with scandals have
made an impact on the overall business confidence, albeit
marginal. Employment generation has remained stable and
upbeat in most of the sectors. However, continuous
inflation, price of raw materials and intermediate industrial
products, scams involving ministers and so on have created
some caution in the minds of entrepreneurs. The
movement of skilled workforce within the sector continued
during the 4th Quarter of 2010. The change in
employment across sectors is given in the table below.
The employment scenario during any specific time period
needs to be viewed from the perspective of various
activities and at several fronts, for a considerable period.
This section has presented the estimated employment
numbers with expectations for different sectors of the
Indian economy. It also lists some of the issues that might
have an impact on the employment scenario, either directly
or indirectly. This will help correlate between the trends
observed regarding employment and economic as well as
political fundamentals.
The BFSI sector is expected to add 116,240
jobs in 2011.
The stable and positive sentiment at the economic front continues
to help the BFSI sector to grow further during the 4th Quarter of
2010. Responses from the BFSI companies indicate that almost
similar condition will prevail during the first two quarters of 2011
as well as for the entire year. The sector is cautiously optimistic
about growth of employment numbers.
The raise of Repo and Reverse Repo rates by RBI on 25th January
2011 has caused an increase of Repo rate by 175 basis points and
Reverse Repo rate by 225 basis points, since March 2010. CRR has
increased by 100 basis points during the same time.
Inflation has remained a cause for concern over the past months
and is expected to continue for a few more months to come.
However, the response to structural causes of inflation needs to be
through reallocation of resources across sectors. Short term
measures like interest rate hikes, though manage to contain
inflation to a moderate level are not strong enough to sustain
growth. .
The recent RBI report on the Micro Finance sector has
recommended several checks to resolve the issues and improve
transparency. However, observations have also been made
regarding the “Recovery Culture” in the financial sector and its
adverse effects on the customers. This is an important observation
made by RBI, in view of the recent measures taken by the Andhra
Pradesh Government to regulate the recovery of loans from the
small borrowers by the MFIs. However, the drive towards financial
inclusion will certainly play a positive role in employment
generation in this sector.
Bank credit to commercial sector is increasing steadily, which is
one of the major driving forces for the banking sector in the
country.
Insurance sector, both life and general, has witnessed a positive
sentiment in the 4th Quarter as compared to the previous ones
and is expected to do better in coming months.
The Education, Training and Consulting sector
is expected to add 107,500 jobs in 2011.
Education sector continued to contribute significantly to the
employment base of the country during the last Quarter of 2010.
The sector is expected to grow at similar rate during the first
couple of Quarters of 2011. However, the expectation regarding
growth for the entire calendar year of 2011 is slightly lower
compared to the first two Quarters of the year.
The regulatory ambiguity still remains the biggest impediment that
holds back the sector’s transformation into one of country’s
largest industry
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
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MTBiz is a monthly Market Review produced and distributed by Group R&D, MTB since 2009.
A Deep Dive into the Indian Union Budget 2022aakash malhotra
What does the Union Budget 2022 mean for the Indian economy? Explore all the major announcements made by the Indian Finance Minister surrounding economic indicators, direct taxes, existing policies, indirect taxes and major industries. A detailed analysis by Deloitte experts. Everything you need to know in one place.
In the July-August 2014 Issue of Economy Matters, we track the economic developments in US and China in Global Trends. In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on IIP, Inflation, Fiscal, Trade & Monetary Policy. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on the Implications of Jobless Growth. In Focus of the Month, the spotlight is on Textiles Sector. Special Feature discusses the importance of Hospitality Sector in India.
CII’s flagship monthly publication Economy Watch has been now revamped and rechristened as ‘Economy Matters’. Apart from encompassing all the key features of the old version, the new issue also carries a new section on Corporate Profitability to keep readers abreast about the latest trends in corporate performance. The ‘Economy Matters’ brought out by CII Research seeks to provide an in-depth update on current trends in the domestic and international economy and helps in tracking policy developments and understanding industry dynamics.
Indicus data and analytics solutions help businesses take the right marketing decisions faster and smarter. They provide ready-to-use data and analytics that support strategic decision making at all levels.Indicus products help users locate and select their consumer and market segments, prioritize markets and sales efforts, optimally locate their store or branch, test and experiment with new products, ads and sales tactics.
The critical USP of Indicus products is that they provide insights about the markets and the consumers through highly robust and credible data. The easy-to-use analytical tools and insightful infographics lets users compare, prioritize and choose their best markets instantly.
Moreover different Indicus products allow the users to choose the granularity-level they desire to work in. They can analyze consumer demography and market related data and derive insights at the level of a state, district, cities (of various tiers), block, neighbourhood, pin code, and now as finely as a one square kilometer area. At every geographic level, a range of marketing relevant demographic and economic data, derived from highly authentic public data sources, are analyzed and presented.
The phenomenon of increased urbanization in India is facing one of its foremost challenges in the form of disparity between redistribution of economic opportunity and growth. The centre of poverty is gradually shifting towards urban centres and this situation is further worsened by already high population densities, poor infrastructure and a general lack of effective housing policy and provisioning for the poor. The Census of India 2011 suggests that 66% of all statutory towns in India have slums, with 17.4% of total urban households currently residing. However, this estimate of slums takes into account certain criteria set by the Census for a settlement to be featured as a slum. A large proportion of households who are living in similar or poorer dwelling conditions than those living in slums have been omitted. This study encompasses all those settlements that comply with the definition of slums (as given by the Census of India) as well as those with similar or poorer dwelling conditions that those of slums as ‘Informal Settlements’, because these are primarily dwelling units where most of the urban poor live. Interventions should be targeted at all these informal settlements instead of only slums as defined by the Census, since the quality of life and infrastructure in these informal settlements are similar to those of slums.
The objective of the present study is to look into the contribution of informal settlement households to urban economy. The primary reason for looking at this particular question is to determine whether the informal settlement households, who normally form the poor strata of the urban population, do contribute to the urban economy to a significant extent or not. If they do contribute to urban economy, whether providing proper urban services to them should be treated as their legitimate right? For greater comprehension, this study attempts to discover the role of informal settlement population as a productive agent in urban economy, which is in contrast to the general notion that this section of population is “burden to the city.”
PREDICTING GROWTH OF URBAN AGGLOMERATIONS THROUGH FRACTAL ANALYSIS OF GEO-SPATIAL DATA
Location Analytics is one of the fastest emerging fields in the broad area of Business Intelligence/Data Science. By
some industry estimates, almost 80% of all data has a location dimension to it. Consequently, identification of
trends and patterns in spatially distributed information has far reaching applications ranging from urban planning, to
logistics and supply chain management, location based marketing, sales territory planning and retail store location.
In view of this, we present an approach based on Fractal Analysis (FA) of highly granular geo-spatial data.
Specifically, we use proprietary data available at approximately1 square km level for New Delhi, India provided by Indicus Analytics (India’s leading economic data analytics firm based in New Delhi). We compare and contrast the patterns and insights generated using the FA approach with other more traditional approaches such as spatial to correlation and structural similarity indices. Preliminary results indicate that there are indeed “selfsimilar” local patterns that are completely missed by spatial correlation that are accurately captured by the more sophisticated FA approach. These patterns provide deep insights into the underlying socio-economic and demographic processes and can be used to predict the spatial distribution of these variables in the future. For example, questions such as what are the pockets of population growth in a city and how will businesses and government respond to that growth can be answered using the proposed approach.
India’s strong consumption story relies on its demographic structure, which, at this
point in time, is highly favourable compared to most other emerging nations. As per
the UN population statistics, this favourable demographic dividend will last for another
25–30 years. Before that, most other emerging nations would have already begun to
witness a slowdown in the growth of young (working-age) population.
The ensuing benefits with regard to the rising income and household spending would
provide a significant boost to the consumption-driven growth story of India. A glimpse
of the changing pattern of India’s consumption is already visible in the breakdown
of private final consumption spending data provided by the government. There is
a marked increase in spending on lifestyle products and services such as hotels,
mobiles, transportation and other miscellaneous goods. As against that, spending on
essentials has only remained stable.
International retailers are well aware of these benefits that the Indian economy offers.
Barring few legislative challenges that could be tackled through the policy reforms and
opening up of the retail sector, retailers have often expressed their intention to enter
and invest in India’s attractive retail sector. This is very well reflected in AT Kearney’s
Global Retail Development Index 2012, where India ranks as the fifth most attractive
retail market for international retailers. The retail sector is a significant contributor to India’s economic activity. Though a
direct measurement of the retail sector is difficult to derive through government
statistics, the trade, hotels and restaurant sectors come close to giving us an
estimate of its contribution. That component, in which retail (both organised and
unorganised) is the dominant activity, accounts for around 18% of India’s GDP.
Within the services sector of India, this component is the largest contributor
to the economy. Many institutions, however, may not agree with this possibly
understated measurement of the retail sector, as it may not accurately account
for the unorganised sector. For instance, as per the estimates of the Associated
Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ASSOCHAM) presented in one of its retail
reports of 2012, the contribution of both organised and unorganised retail stood
at 22% of GDP. This would mean that Indian retail sector size should measure
closer to INR 19.2 trillion in 2012. Leading research institutions such as AT
Kearney and ASSOCHAM estimate this sector to grow at around 15% y-o-y over
the next three–five years as against a 12%–13% nominal growth of India’s GDP
estimated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Going by that logic, the retail
sector should reach a size of INR 34 trillion by 2016. This is a significant growth.
The sector is also an important contributor towards the socioeconomic well-being
of the economy as it employs close to 9.4% of India’s labour force, as per the
association.
So the Food Security Bill is through. More than two thirds of the country’s population has now been promised highly subsidized food. Congress and UPA will get a couple of extra percent points of votes, add another 2-3 percentage points because of the good monsoons and you get a good enough swing for it to come back next year. The BJP was checkmated as it was impossible for it to play its usual flawless doublespeak.
I am asked what could be bad about ensuring elimination of hunger and malnutrition. I would like to ask a counter question? What is good about theFood Security Bill?
It promises to finally eliminate hunger and malnutrition, they say. How? Because now the poor can buy wheat, rice and coarse cereal at highly subsidized rates. How will the poor be identified I ask; that will happen they say. Where will the poor buy from I ask; the Public Distribution System (PDS)they say. Where? I ask again. The PDS shop, they say. And why will the PDS shop now suddenly start working when it has not for so many decades? Because now it’s a right, and people can demand redressal from the courts, they say.
So let’s grant this – the PDS will now start to function because the government will better use better technology. They will use GIS, GPS, perhaps Aadhar card and biometrics, etc. and this will eliminate the problems that the PDS system has. How will it work? The government will buy grains from production centres, store and transport them to consumption centres, and then sell them at subsidized rates through the public distribution system. Each of these will cost. Of course the PDS system itself will need to be strengthened almost everywhere. This will also cost. The high-tech sounding technology is not costless; the Aadhar number needs biometric identification, etc. etc. All of this will cost a lot. A paper coming from the government’s own Commission for Agri Cost and Prices (CACP) puts the total figure at about 682 thousand crores over a three year period. It is highly unlikely that the government can spend this, and the system cannot work well unless it is implemented very well. Chidambaram fighting his needless forex battles cannot loosen the purse strings. And even if he did, no one in this government has the ability to implement it. And without some serious money backed by serious project management skills the subsidized food will not reach where it is intended to. There will therefore be leakages. The estimated leakage itself is about 200 thousand crore by the CACP. I think it will be more as leakage is not only amount getting diverted, but also the amount wasted. When the numbers are so high it is obvious what kind of people will like to get into politics and into the government, and which ones would stay away.But these are all nitty-gritties of implementation. The Food Security Bill is inherently flawed in many other ways.Who will have control over this whole process?
The Case for Increasing FDI Caps in Insurance
The history of India’s political economy is replete with missed opportunities. The approach to growth and investment has been often stranded in the many romantic notions of selfreliance and what constitutes national interest. In every
decade since Independence, the approach to foreign direct investment has been influenced by a mistrust triggered by a colonial hangover. Every time India has opened its doors – or windows if you please – to foreign investment, it has been characterised by gradualism in the wake of much opposition. The debates around opening or expanding FDI are similar – as it was when telecom or banking opened up for foreign investment. What is important to recognise is that every such initiative has been beneficial, delivering greater common good.
Higher economic growth is driven by competition and consumer choice. Competition drives efficiency and efficiency drives growth. This is true of every country that has done well economically. It is also true of India since 1991, in segments where competition has been introduced. Any attempt to artificially introduce protection always has costs. Inefficient producers are protected, but at the expense of consumers. Consumers suffer from higher prices,bad service and limited choice. This is straightforward under-graduate economic theory. The gains to inefficient producers are more than neutralized by losses to consumers, leading to an overall deadweight welfare loss to the country.
In this argument, the colour of the competition, whether it is domestic or foreign, does not matter. In addition, there is the macroeconomic argument about a current account deficit having to be met through capital account inflows and non-debt-creating FDI inflows are preferable to debt-creating capital inflows. While these broad arguments about competition and FDI are accepted, the question to ask is, why should the insurance sector not be subject to these compelling arguments? Is there anything special about insurance that rational arguments should not be applied to
this sector? In every sector where India has opened up to FDI, be it manufacturing or be it services, two propositions are empirically evident. First, liberalization helps consumers. Second, fears about inefficient producers being eliminated are also vastly exaggerated.
Instead, producers of goods and services adapt and survive, based on access to capital, technology, knowhow, improved management practices and customer orientation. Therefore, protection not only harms the cause of consumers, it also harms the cause of producers. There is no reason why insurance should be treated differently. And economic logic and rationale should not be conditional on whether one is within the government or is in opposition.
The Economic Freedom of the States of India 2012 estimates economic freedom in the 20 biggest Indian states, based on data for 2011. The aim of this report—to measure the level of economic freedom within India—grows out of a larger project begun in the 1980s by the Fraser Institute and culminating in the annual Economic Freedom of the World
report (co-published by the Cato Institute in the United States). That exercise has proved fruitful in establishing a strong empirical relationship between economic freedom and prosperity, growth, and improvements in the whole range of indicators of human well being. The global report has also produced an explosion of research by leading universities, think tanks and international organisations on the critical role of economic freedom to human progress, including its importance to sustaining civil and political liberty. The Cato Institute is pleased to co-publish the present report on India with Indicus Analytics and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation at a time when both India’s high growth prospects and its commitment to reform have come under scrutiny.
The main highlights of this study are as follows.
1. The top state in India in economic freedom in 2011 was Gujarat. It displaced Tamil Nadu, which had been the top state in 2009. Gujarat’s freedom index score has been rising fast, and at 0.64 it is now far ahead of second-placed Tamil Nadu (0.56). Madhya Pradesh (0.56) is close behind in third position, Haryana (0.55) retains fourth position and Himachal (0.53) retains fifth position.
2. The bottom three states in 2011 were, in reverse order, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. In 2009, the reverse order was Bihar, Uttarakhand and Assam. Uttarakhand has moved up sharply from 19th to 14th position, and this improved freedom is reflected in its average GDP growth rate of 12.82 per cent in 2004-2011, the fastest among all states. This is an impressive achievement for a once-backward state.
3. Earlier the median score for economic freedom for all states had declined from 0.38 in 2005 to 0.36 in 2009. But it has now improved substantially to 0.41 in 2011. This is good news. Still the median score lags way behind Gujarat’s 0.64, so other states have a long way to go.
4. The biggest improvement has been registered by Madhya Pradesh. Its freedom index score rose from 0.42 in 2009 to 0.56 in 2011, enabling it to move up from 6th to 3rd position. This improved economic freedom was associated with acceleration in its GDP growth. This averaged 6 per cent per year from 2004-2009, but then accelerated to 9 per cent per year in 2009-2011.
5. The biggest decline in economic freedom has been recorded by Jharkhand, which slumped from 8th to 19th position. Its score declined from 0.38 to 0.31. Unsurprisingly, its GDP growth has averaged only 4.6 per cent in 2004-2011, one of the lowest among all states . Jharkhand has special problems as a heavily forested state suffering from Maoist insurrections.
Education is clearly important in tapping the so-called demographic dividend. There is nothing automatic about a demographic dividend materializing. Among other things, that is a function of health and education outcomes. More specifically, there is question of skills. The overall skills deficit has often been flagged. For instance, in 2002, the S.P. Gupta Special Group constituted by the Planning Commission stated, “It should be noted, however, that on the average the skilled labour force at present is hardly around 6-8 per cent of the total, compared to more than 60 per cent in most of the developed and emerging developing countries.” In 2001, the Montek Singh Ahluwalia Task Force , again constituted by the Planning Commission, stated, “Only 5% of the Indian labour force in this age category has vocational skills.” While the numbers are marginally different, the Eleventh Five Year Plan document adds the following. “The NSS 61st Round results show that among persons of age 15-29 years, only about 2% are reported to have received formal vocational training and another 8% reported to have received non-formal vocational training indicating that very few young persons actually enter the world of work with any kind of formal vocational training.” Among the youth, most of those with formal training are in Kerala, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat. A better indicator of a State’s performance is the share of the young population that has some variety of formal training. In this, Maharashtra, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh perform well. Is this because there is better training capacity and infrastructure? Is it because industrial activity exists in these States? Is it because there is a positive correlation between some minimum level of educational attainment and acquisition of formal training? The answer is probably a combination of various factors.
Growth StoryG rowth is never an end in itself. It is a means to an end, especially because by growth one typically means growth in gross State domestic product (GSDP). In the context of a country, GSDP is akin to GDP (gross domestic product), the total value of goods and services produced in a country over a fixed time period,typically one year. GDP isn’t the same as GNI (gross national income), since GNI also includesnet factor income from abroad. The principle is no different for a State and GSDP is notnecessarily the same as gross state income (GSI). The difference can be important for a Statewhere migration and remittances are major variables. However, having accepted the point, oneis stuck, since no credible estimates exist for GSI. One only has figures on GSDP and mustaccept it as a surrogate indicator. GSDP figures are compiled by Directorates of Economics andStatistics of different State governments. They are then “vetted” by Central StatisticalOrganization (CSO) and finalized. GSDP figures can be in current prices, or in constant prices.If we do not wish to get carried away by inflation, we should focus on constant price numbers.In the present case, this means that everything is expressed in 2004-05 prices.
Indian cement industry has passed through many ups and down. It was under strict
government control till 1982. Subsequently, it was partially decontrolled and in 1989, the
industry was opened for free market competition along with withdrawal of price and
distribution controls. Finally, the industry was completely de-licensed in July 1991 under the
policy of economic liberalization and the industry witnessed spectacular growth in production
as well as capacity.
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Household consumption patterns depend on many factors, and the age of the chief wage earner is a key determinant. The Indicus Indian Urban Consumer Spectrum classifies urban households into three broad categories: younger years, in which the chief wage earner is predominantly less than 34 years of age; middle years, in which the chief wage earner is mainly in the age group of 35 to 54, and mature years, households in which the chief wage earner is usually over the age of 54.
At each life stage, there are different income and consumption patterns; as the chief wage earner moves into the older years, the family structure also changes. So the category of younger years does not necessarily denote younger households; in fact, households in mature years have more than 40% of its population under the age of 18.
Creating consumer segments by the age of the chief wage earner of the household reveals patterns that are otherwise hidden in data. Take for instance occupations—the sector that employs the highest share of chief wage earners in younger and middle years is manufacturing, which takes up a lower share for chief wage earners in mature years. On the other hand, manufacturing falls to second slot for chief wage earners in mature years; and more interestingly, public administration/defence accounts for the third largest share of employment in this segment. This does point to the changing structure of employment over time, and also gives an indication of the income and consumption behaviour of these households.
Then there is the size of the household—households where the chief wage earner is in his younger years are to a large extent small in size; close to 60% are single member households—the earning member in the city is single or married and living away from his family. This is the smallest segment, comprising less than 15% of urban households, and around 5% of urban population. The largest segment, which accounts for more than 60% of urban households, is those in which chief wage earners are in their mature years; here, a majority have five or more members and almost a quarter have more than two earning members. This, therefore, forms a bulk of urban consumer spends; and, since it includes senior citizens as well as minors, it caters to the needs of all age groups.
The segment in which chief wage earners are in their middle years accounts for more than a quarter of urban households. This segment stands out as the one in which almost all households have minors; this would, therefore, be extremely cued into the needs of growing children—whether it comes to education, food or entertainment, it is in these households that children rule.
The younger years segment feeds into the others as chief wage earners marry, or bring their families to the cities and have children, save to buy houses, two-wheelers, cars and so on, and the maturity of the chief wage earner naturally shows up in higher incomes and asset penetration across the groups.
mall durables—the little items that personalize households and make each home different—can be divided into four main groups: furniture and fixtures, household appliances, recreational goods, and other personal goods including mobile handsets, watches, clocks, plastic goods and decorative items. As a group, they account for less than 2% of total household expenses, as other basic necessities such as food, travel and rent take up the bulk of the budget.
The largest sub-groups in this category are other personal goods and household appliances, accounting for more than 80% and 11%, respectively, of the total expense within the group. There are variations across states. In Chandigarh, Goa and Kerala, household appliances take up close to 20% of the expenses in this category, double the average.
Within this group of small durables, there is a wide variety, with prices and brands to suit every pocket, and as households move up the income ladder, they spend on higher-value items within the group; per-household annual expense on small durables, therefore, rises from Rs. 1,255 on an average in the lowest income segment, which are households earning less than Rs. 1.5 lakh a year, to Rs. 11,807 in the highest income segment of households earning more than Rs. 10 lakh a year.
With technology based solutions seen as key to achieving financial inclusion, the role of e-money becomes important in reaching out to the unbanked masses. While regulatory space in India has been slowing opening up to allow non-banks to act as e-money issuers and prudential norms are in place, regulatory concerns remain regarding the safety of customer funds and the potential impact of e-money on monetary aggregates. The regulator’s dilemma, as described by David Porteous, is whether or not to implement measures that may hinder expansion of access to nonusers in the interest of greater protection for those who already have access, and it is for each country to evolve models and practices appropriate to their economy. It is however instructive to absorb lessons from international experiences that exemplify how regulations can evolve to meet the challenges involved in non-bank e-money issuers, all with the aim of bringing about universal financial inclusion.
M-PESA is a mobile based transfer of money between customers, facilitated by network of retail agents. Kenya is the first country to have adopted M-PESA where the model witnessed huge success and is contributing big way in enabling financial inclusion in the country. Deployment of M-PESA in India can bring similar benefits as experienced in Kenya. Growing mobile penetration in rural areas would ensure that people are able to benefit from mobile based money transfer concept. Indian regulatory system has also been gearing up to allow technology benefits in enabling financial inclusion, developments are only at introductory stage.
Sustaining the development of the country will require current levels of growth to trickle down to the poorest and more excluded of society. A critical way to extend these benefits will be to bring people into the formal sector of finance, whereby they may have more reliable and cheaper access to their financial needs of remittances, savings, borrowings etc. Many models have been suggested as alternatives to traditional branch banking, the current penetration of which is abysmally low. Options include mobile banking, enlisting business correspondents, encouraging MFIs, etc., and each option has its strengths and weaknesses. The models with the greatest potential for the future should be able to leverage on existing retail networks and the rapidly expanding ICT (information and communication technology) platform. As such, the BC model, clubbed with m-banking technology, holds the greatest promise to achieving universal inclusion and steps must be taken to encourage its sustained proliferation
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2. in this report...
Indian Economy – Improved outlook with pockets of concern
?
? methodology
Data and
? of employment generation in different sectors
Estimates
? Financial Services and Insurance
Banking,
Education, Training and Consultancy
?
Energy
?
Healthcare
?
Hospitality
?
Information Technology & Information Technology Enabled Services
?
Manufacturing - Machinery and Equipment
?
Manufacturing - Non-Machinery Products
?
Media and Entertainment
?
Pharma
?
Real Estate and Construction
?
Trade including Consumer, Retail and Services
?
Transport, Storage and Communication
?
Concluding Remarks
?
Appendix
?
A1: Expected Increase in Employment across Different Sectors
A2: Expected Increase in Salary across Different Sectors - Lateral Job Shift
A3: Composition of New Hires by Experience
A4: Composition of New Hires by Functional Areas
A5: Share of Different Hiring Sources for New Hires
A6: City-wise Growth in Employment
A7: City-wise Likely Increase in Salary - Lateral Job Shift
A8 : City-wise Share of Different Experience Brackets amongst New Hires
A9: City-wise Share of Different Functional Areas amongst New Hires
The Ma Foi Randstad Employment Trends Survey (MEtS), conducted by Ma Foi Randstad - India’s No. 1 Integrated HR services company, is a
study on the Indian employment trends and opportunities. Starting from November 2004 till 2008, MEtS was conducted once a year.
Considering several shifts in employment dynamics even within a year’s time, MEtS was converted into a quarterly survey from 2010 to
capture the changes in employment scenario in India from one quarter to another.
The primary objective of this employment survey is to understand the employment trends in the organized sector on a quarterly basis. The
present survey captures the employment situation in the organized sector during the fourth quarter of Calendar Year 2011 (from October to
December 2011) and the likely scenario in the first quarter of the Calendar Year 2012 (January to March 2012). The study results are based
on a survey in December 2011 of 639 sample companies spread across 13 different sectors. The feedback was gathered from the top HR
personnel or top management of the companies, who could share valuable insights on employment related issues. The major focus of the
survey is to estimate the changes in employment scenario across sectors and space. The other issues highlighted in the survey are changes in
salary in case of lateral hiring, recruitments for different experience categories and hiring for different functional roles.
The report is presented in four sections. The first section (Section A) discusses the recent trends and an overall view of the Indian Economy. It
is followed by Section B which provides insights about the data and methodological aspects of the study. Section C presents a picture of the
changing pattern of employment in different sectors of the economy. A snapshot of the changing scenario in 8 selected cities is also given in
this section. The final section (Section D) concludes the study highlighting key issues.
3. Indian Economy
improved outlook
with pockets of concern
According to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the Indian On the back of the improving inflation scenario, RBI has also
economy is expected to grow at around 7% in the financial indicated a halt in the repo rate increase. It last raised the
year 2011-12, lower than the December projection of 7.5%. repo rate by 25 basis points in October 2011 to 8.50%.
According to Mr. Montek Singh Ahluwalia, Deputy Over the previous 9 months it had raised the rate by 200
Chairman, Planning Commission, even though the 12th plan basis points, starting from 6.25% at beginning of the year.
target annual growth rate of 9% is still feasible, it is now If the declining trend of inflation continues, RBI is expected
more difficult to achieve than six months ago. to start reducing the interest rate beginning Q1 of FY 2012-
13. Credit Suisse expects a 125 basis points decline in repo
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of India grew by 7.7% in rate over the FY 2012-13.
Q1, 2011-12 period, as compared to 8.8% growth rate for
Q1, 2010-11. The year on year growth rate fell further to In contrast to the declining trend in food inflation, the fuel
6.9% in Q2. The sectors that did well in Q2 of 2011-12 over prices are still holding out. In the week ending December
corresponding period of the previous year are electricity, gas 24, fuel inflation marginally accelerated to 14.6% as
and water supply (9.8%), trade, hotels, transport and compared to 14.4% a week earlier. On the demand side,
communication (9.9%) and financial sector (including real the growth story of the United States, Europe and other
estate) (10.5%). Construction sector grew at 4.3%, major economies are expected to remain weak, dampening
followed by agriculture at 3.2% and manufacturing at their oil consumption. U.S. dollar is also likely to continue its
measly 2.7%. strong trend, helping to keep the price in check. However,
there is rising tension between US/Europe and Iran in recent
The major drag for the economy was the decline in mining times. United States and Europe have been campaigning to
sector GDP by 2.9% in Q2, along with the significant fall in choke off Iran's oil export, and isolating its central bank.
the growth of manufacturing sector. The IIP data for Q2, Although US and Europe have been talking with alternative
2011-12 showed a decline by 2.7% for the mining industry suppliers, especially the other Gulf producers, doubts have
output, which was much lower than the 6.3% growth been raised regarding their capacity to completely replace
registered in Q2, 2010-11. Manufacturing output grew only Iran's supply on a sustained basis. This uncertainty has led to
at 3.1%, which was again lesser than half the Q2, 2010-11 an increase in the oil prices, mainly due to supply concerns,
growth rate of 7.4%. Electricity production did better in spite of absence of any spurt in demand.
comparatively, growing at a much higher 10.5% in Q2 The adverse effect of rising fuel prices on Indian economy
2011-12 vis-a-vis a low 2.1% in the corresponding quarter can be further exacerbated by the fall in the value of the
of previous year. One significant related development on the Rupee. Indian Rupee was the worst performer in 2011
policy front was the adoption of the New Manufacturing among Asian currencies, losing close to 20.6% against the
Policy on October 25, 2011. The New Policy envisages an U.S. dollar since August 2011. This was due to foreign
increase in the share of manufacturing in GDP, from 16% to investors pulling out of Asia's third-largest economy on
25% and creation of 100 million additional jobs in the worries over its large fiscal deficit, stubborn high inflation
manufacturing sector by 2022. The Policy also proposes to and slowing growth. According to Mr. Pranab Mukherjee,
set up seven National Investment and Manufacturing Zones Finance Minister, the pressure on Rupee will continue until
with single-window clearance and flexible labour laws. there is a suitable solution to the sovereign debt problem in
Europe. According to research firm Macquarie, there is a
Even though the overall year on year inflation remained high risk of Rupee depreciating further to 55-56 level against the
at 9.11% for November 2011, the food inflation has US dollar in the near term, although a pull back is expected
significantly dropped over the last two months. For the week in the second half of this year. A weak rupee will exert an
ending December 24, food inflation came down to negative upward pressure on overall inflation by pushing up the cost
3.4%, as prices of vegetables, onion, potato and wheat of imported items, and thereby partially offsetting a
recorded a decline. This was the first time in six years that moderation in food prices.
food inflation had shown a decline on an annual basis. It
remained on the negative zone for the subsequent three
weeks also. RBI expects inflation to moderate further to
around 7% level by March 2012.
4. The fall in inflation and interest rates may also be limited 238 billion to US$ 310 billion. This resulted in an increase in
due to the rising fiscal deficit, which is a result of growth the trade deficit from US$ 93 billion to US$ 117 billion. A
slowdown affecting tax revenues and derailment of PSU
divestment as a result of depressed market conditions. The
Central Government has been forced to increase its
borrowing for the FY 2011-12 by 22%, raising questions
about its ability to restrict deficit within the target figure of
4.6% of GDP. Most analysts expect India's 2011/12 federal
fiscal gap to be an almost 1 percentage point higher than
the original target.
Another important factor can be the de-leveraging risk
emanating from crisis in the Euro zone. In the event of
worsening of the European crisis, the European banks may
refuse to rollover or extend credit to Indian corporate
houses. In such a scenario, Indian banks will be required to
take the loans on their books. According to the Bank of
International Settlements (BIS), European banks' claims
against India stood at US$159 billion at the end of June
2011. This accounts for almost 55% of the total
international claims (US$289 billion) on India. According to
financial market experts, the process has already started to
some extent and has the potential to adversely affect the
domestic liquidity situation in the coming months.
Cumulative value of exports for the period April-November
in FY 2011 -12 was US$ 193 billion against US$ 145 billion
for the same period in previous year, registering a growth of
33.2%. Imports over this period grew by 30.2% from US$
Expected Employment Increase in Different Sectors - Outlook 2012
Employment Expected Increase in Employment Expected Increase in percentage
Sectors
December January - December January - March January - December January - March
2011 2012 2012 2012 2012
Banking, Financial Services and Insurance 968,055 71,605 15,657 7.4 % 1.6 %
Education, Training and Consultancy 9,886,593 87,290 23,815 0.9 % 0.2 %
Energy 924,528 30,208 7,710 3.3 % 0.8 %
Healthcare 3,621,177 273,571 72,473 7.6 % 2.0 %
Hospitality 6,309,121 230,213 60,308 3.6 % 1.0 %
Information Technology & Information Technology Enabled Services 2,102,421 227,328 54,926 10.8 % 2.6 %
Manufacturing - Machinery and Equipment 1,190,736 59,180 12,732 5.0 % 1.1 %
Manufacturing - Non-Machinery Products 4,662,741 163,075 40,245 3.5 % 0.9 %
Media and Entertainment 1,482,898 162,264 43,474 10.9 % 2.9 %
Pharma 335,455 59,957 13,642 17.9 % 4.1 %
Real Estate and Construction 988,815 132,906 26,669 13.4 % 2.7 %
Trade including Consumer, Retail and Services 693,534 54,230 13,832 7.8 % 2.0 %
Transport, Storage and Communication 2,730,403 49,480 10,042 1.8 % 0.4 %
5. The Indian economy is expected to grow at around 7% in
estimates of the financial year 2011-12, lower than the December
projection of 7.8% to 8.0%. With some respite in food
employment inflation, there is wide spread belief that the interest rate
hikes have hit the ceiling and will begin a descent from April
2012 onwards. This may provide a respite to the badly
generation in battered sectors of manufacturing, real estate, construction,
automobile, etc.
different sectors In terms of jobs created in Calendar Year 2011, Healthcare,
Hospitality and IT took the top three places. In terms of y-o-
y growth rate, the pride of place was taken by the Pharma
sector. These four sectors are expected to repeat their chart
topper performance in Calendar Year 2012 too. Two other
sectors that will significantly add to the employment
opportunities are Media & Entertainment and
Manufacturing of Non-machinery products. Real Estate and
Construction, which was expected to log a 16.8% growth
rate in Calendar Year 2011, only managed to grow at
15.1%. The growth rate is expected to further decline in
Calendar Year 2012 at 13.4%. However, this sector is likely
to create more than a lakh new job opportunities in the
current year.
A summary of the employment generation scenario across
13 different sectors are presented below. It gives the
estimated numbers of job created in Calendar Year 2011 in
these sectors, as well as the likely additions in CY 2012. A
comparison of Q4, CY 2011 against Q1, CY2012 numbers
is also given in the following table. A detailed sectoral level
analysis, highlighting some of the important developments
which had a material impact on the job prospects in these
sectors, is presented subsequently.
Expected Employment Increase in Different Sectors - 2011
Employment
Expected Estimated Expected Estimated Expected Estimated Expected Estimated
Sectors Jan - Dec Jan - Dec Oct - Dec Oct - Dec Jan - Dec Jan - Dec Oct - Dec Oct - Dec
December
2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011
Banking, Financial Services and Insurance 907,960 80,700 60,095 11,900 13,455 8.9% 6.6% 1.3% 1.4%
Education, Training and Consultancy 9,794,024 107,500 92,569 20,700 25,793 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.3%
Energy 895,502 24,900 29,026 6,600 6,928 2.8% 3.2% 0.7% 0.8%
Healthcare 3,377,657 248,500 243,520 58,700 68,077 7.4% 7.2% 1.7% 1.9%
Hospitality 6,111,304 218,200 197,817 41,600 55,121 3.6% 3.2% 0.7% 0.9%
Information Technology &
Information Technology Enabled Services 1,918,865 183,000 183,556 41,600 45,821 9.5% 9.6% 2.1% 2.2%
Manufacturing - Machinery and Equipment 1,134,788 68,400 55,948 14,000 12,336 6.0% 4.9% 1.2% 1.0%
Manufacturing - Non-Machinery Products 4,507,967 223,400 154,774 38,300 36,941 5.0% 3.4% 0.8% 0.8%
Media and Entertainment 1,356,296 126,100 126,602 32,800 38,998 9.3% 9.3% 2.3% 2.7%
Pharma 284,351 49,400 51,104 12,800 13,855 17.4% 18.0% 4.1% 4.3%
Real Estate and Construction 859,342 144,700 129,473 26,200 23,815 16.8% 15.1% 2.8% 2.5%
Trade including Consumer, Retail and Services 652,786 38,600 40,748 9,900 12,334 5.9% 6.2% 1.5% 1.8%
Transport, Storage and Communication 2,682,553 93,300 47,850 11,300 8,403 3.5% 1.8% 0.4% 0.3%
6. Banking, Financial composition of new hires
Services and Insurance 3%
Between October and December 2011, the 30%
29%
Banking, Financial Services and Insurance
sector has added 13,455 jobs and is < 1 Year
expected to add another 15,657 jobs over by experience
1 - 4 Years
5 - 10 years
January to March 2012. This sector is > 10 Years
expected to add 71,605 jobs in the
Calendar Year 2012.
39%
? moderation in inflation, the RBI has indicated a halt in its
With the
long series of raises in repo rate. While it had increased repo rate by
200 basis points over the first nine months of 2011, it raised the rate
only once by 25 basis points in the final quarter of Calendar Year
2011. The rapid increase in the interest rate had a detrimental effect
on the overall growth prospect in 2011, and subdued the 2%
12%
employment situation. Sectors like real estate and auto industry also
experienced a slowdown in demand as a result of this.
?growth as on December 16, 2011 dropped to its lowest level
Credit
since April 2010 (20 months) to below 18% (at 17.1%) because of
slowing economy as well as a high base effect (23.9% yoy growth in 41%
Admin / Accountants etc
December ‘10). Deposit accretion continues to be healthy at a yoy
Core Activities including
growth rate of 44%. Most of the banks kept their deposit as well as Marketing and BD
lending rates unchanged. by function
Customer Service
Concerns on asset quality continued to plague the banking system.
?
With completion of transition to system-based NPA recognition, most Senior Management
PSU banks witnessed asset-quality stress. 11 out of 21 PSU banks
reported more than a 20% increase in their net NPA levels in Q2 of 44%
FY2012. The asset quality of the private banks, in contrast, remained
comfortable apart from some concerns on the Micro Finance
Institutions. With sectors such as infra, real estate and exports
continuing to face macro headwinds, asset-quality concerns are
expected to linger.
? recently issued draft guidelines for implementation of Basel-III
RBI had
banking norms in India. The new norms envisage that the equity
capital of a bank should not be less than 5.5% of its risk-weighted
assets (RWAs). Tier 1 capital (equity and reserves) and total capital
must be at least 7% and 9% of RWAs respectively. It had also 17%
suggested setting up of a capital conservation buffer in the form of 22%
common equity of 2.5% of RWAs. This will increase the capitalisation
needs of the Indian banks significantly.
In an effort to further the goal of delivering financial services at
? Campus
affordable costs to sections of disadvantaged and low income
HR Agency
segments of the society, Government is exploring the possibilities of 4%
tapping into the network of 1.55 lakh post offices. If implemented, by hiring sources Referrals
this will increase the reach of the banking network by three fold and
Social Media
will help to reach out to a huge population, which is still outside the 32%
existing banking system. Others
In a move that could benefit over 5 million unskilled and semi-skilled
?
overseas Indian workers, Government has cleared a proposal to set up
a Pension and Life Insurance Fund (PLIF) in the Emigration Check 24%
Required (ECR) countries.
Economic slowdown, inflation, weak investment sentiment and
?
changed regulations for unit-linked insurance plans (ULIPs) since
September 2010 have led to a contraction in the premium collected
by the life insurance industry for the first time in last 10 years. The
total premium collected stood at Rs. 155,770 crore for the period
between April and November 2011 against Rs. 162,994 crore
collected over the same period in 2010-11. While the renewal Increase in Salary
premiums grew in April-November 2011, there was a significant Lateral Job Shift
decline in the new premium collections.
? set to increase the provisioning norms for the commercial
IRDA is
third-party motor pool to 163-213 per cent from present 153 per
cent. This may lead to Rs 10,000 crore loss in the current financial
year for the 24 general insurers.
As a consequence, employment in BFSI in 2011 grew at a lower than
?
expected rate. With the expected decrease in inflationary pressure and
the interest rates, business climate is likely to improve in 2012 as
compared to last year.
Estimated Employment Estimated Employment Expected Employment Expected Employment
September 2011 December 2011 March 2012 December 2012
11.7% 12.5%
954,600 968,055 983,712 1,039,659
Estimated increase Expected increase
during Oct - Dec 2011 during Jan - Mar 2012
Note: Employment numbers are given as round figures
7. Education, Training and composition of new hires
Consulting 4%
Between October and December 2011, the 33%
25%
Education, Training and Consultancy sector
has added 25,793 jobs and is expected to < 1 Year
add another 23,815 jobs over January to by experience
1 - 4 Years
5 - 10 years
March 2012. This sector is expected to add > 10 Years
87,290 jobs in the Calendar Year 2012.
The Government of India aims to achieve 21% gross enrolment ratio
?
(GER) by the end of the Twelfth five year plan (2012-2017). 38%
? implementation of the Right to Education Act, funds to
With the
elementary education have seen a significant increase. Between 2007-
08 and 2009-10, the elementary education budget increased from Rs.
68,710 crore to Rs. 97,255 crore. However, as per a provisional report
of PAISA District Studies (Rural) 2011, a major share (78 %) of the
education budget in India was spent on meeting teachers’ salary and 2%
9%
management costs. Only around 14% and 1% was invested on 21%
establishing school infrastructure and improving the quality of
education respectively.
? this skewed expenditure pattern, the teacher to student ratio
Despite
is very low across all levels. A recent task force of MHRD estimated Admin / Accountants etc
the lecturer-to-student ratio in the country at 1:20.9, against 1:13.5 Core Activities including
recommended by the University Grants Commission (1:12 for Marketing and BD
postgraduate students and 1:15 for undergraduates). Nearly 100,000 by function
Customer Service
teachers will be required annually over the next decade to meet
India’s burgeoning college education demand. Senior Management
According to central government data, the 42 central universities,
?
considered to be key to the country’s university system, have nearly
one-third of their teaching posts vacant.
? the top institutions like IISc, TIFR, BITS have already started 4
Many of
67%
years undergraduate programmes in science subjects. Many large
universities like the Delhi University are also exploring similar
possibilities. If implemented, this shall further increase demand for
teaching faculty.
According to a research note by Anand Rathi, seats available for
?
tertiary education in India are sufficient for just 12% of the
population that needs such education. 10%
? to bridge the gap between industry requirements and
In order
manpower availability, the Indian government has set a target to skill
500 million people by 2022, in collaboration with 34 approved
training partners. It is looking towards creating a training capacity of 36%
11.2 million per year. Campus
?education is increasingly becoming a serious business in India.
Sports HR Agency
The US$ 38 billion sports education and management industry is by hiring sources Referrals
being viewed as a great investment opportunity by entrepreneurs. 31%
? report estimates private education sector alone to grow to
A recent Social Media
US$ 70 billion by 2013 and US$ 115 billion by 2018. Others
? demand side looking buoyant, this sector will be a major
With the
creator of job opportunities in the coming years. 2%
20%
Increase in Salary
Lateral Job Shift
Estimated Employment Estimated Employment Expected Employment Expected Employment
September 2011 December 2011 March 2012 December 2012
11.2% 11.5%
9,860,800 9,886,593 9,910,408 9,973,883
Estimated increase Expected increase
during Oct - Dec 2011 during Jan - Mar 2012
Note: Employment numbers are given as round figures
8. composition of new hires
Energy
Between October and December 2011, the 3%
Energy sector has added 6,928 jobs and is 25%
expected to add another 7,710 jobs over
January to March 2012. This sector is < 1 Year
expected to add 30,208 jobs in the
43%
1 - 4 Years
by experience
Calendar Year 2012. 5 - 10 years
> 10 Years
Coal production declined by 4.0% during April-November 2011-12
?
compared to 0.4% increase during the same period of 2010-11.
?coal sector is hampered by primitive mining techniques and rife
India's 29%
with theft and corruption. The monopoly coal producer, state-
controlled Coal India, has consistently missed production targets.
Shoddy transport infrastructure, inadequate for moving coal from far-
flung mines, compounds the problems.
Coal India needs to mine new deposits to increase output. But most of
?
it lies under protected forests or conflict-ridden tribal lands.
Government efforts to create an effective land-acquisition program 3%
for such projects, including compensation for displaced people, 14%
haven't made much progress. 16%
?Oil production registered a growth of 2.9% during April-
Crude
November 2011-12 compared to its growth at 11.5% during the
same period of 2010-11. The Nov 2011 production figure was even
Admin / Accountants etc
more dismal at negative 5.6% compared to 17.0% growth in
November 2010. Core Activities including
Marketing and BD
? Gas production registered a negative growth of 8.5% during
Natural by function
April- November 2011-12, compared to 19.9% growth during the Customer Service
same period of 2010-11. Senior Management
? to these three, electricity generation turned a stellar
Relative
performance. It grew by 14.1% in November 2011 compared to just
3.5% growth in November 2010. During the April-November 2011-
12 period, electricity generation grew by 9.3% against 4.6% growth
during the same period of previous financial year.
67%
? the world's fifth-largest electricity producer after the U.S.,
India is
China, Japan and Russia. However, at 778.71 kilowatt hours a year,
its per capita consumption is among the world's lowest. Almost 300
million people do not have access to electricity. The country needs a
huge jump in supply to sustain its rapid economic growth, fight
poverty and light the homes of those powerless millions. This provides
the sector with huge expansion opportunities. 12%
More than half of India's installed electricity-generating capacity of
? 27%
182 gigawatts is coal-based, and a large chunk of future power
projects also will run on coal. By comparison, China's installed
capacity at the end of 2010 was 962 gigawatts, about 73% of it from Campus
coal.
HR Agency
The government and private industries are estimated to have invested
?
$100 billion since 2007 to add capacity. As more power plants come by hiring sources Referrals
online, coal shortages are expected to worsen. 29%
Social Media
In the face of huge unmet demand, the actual performance of this
?
sector is thus going to be determined by the supply side factors like 10% Others
coal supply, land acquisition, discovery of new resources, investment
climate, etc.
22%
Increase in Salary
Lateral Job Shift
Estimated Employment Estimated Employment Expected Employment Expected Employment
September 2011 December 2011 March 2012 December 2012
11.8% 12.2%
917,600 924,528 932,238 954,736
Estimated increase Expected increase
during Oct - Dec 2011 during Jan - Mar 2012
Note: Employment numbers are given as round figures
9. composition of new hires
Healthcare
Between October and December 2011, the 2%
Healthcare sector has added 68,077 jobs
17%
and is expected to add another 72,473
jobs over January to March 2012. This 39% < 1 Year
sector is expected to add 273,571 jobs in 1 - 4 Years
by experience
the Calendar Year 2012. 5 - 10 years
> 10 Years
Healthcare industry is the world's largest industry with total revenues
?
of approx US$ 2.8 trillion. In India, Healthcare has emerged as one of 42%
the largest service sectors with estimated revenue of around $ 30
billion (5% of GDP). This is significantly lower than in the US, where
Healthcare spending is 15% of GDP. This indicates its importance as a
sector with significant employment generation capacity.
? Indian population will reach 1.4 billion with about 45%
By 2025,
constituting urban adults (15 years+). To cater to this demographic
change, the Healthcare sector will have to be about $100 billion in
size contributing nearly 8 to 10% of the projected GDP.
2%
? the key drivers for Indian Healthcare sector is Medical Tourism.
One of
16%
World class treatment and benefits at a fraction of the cost (almost
1/10th), with no waiting time for surgeries have been instrumental in
a large number of foreign arrivals. This market is expected to grow to
$2 billion by 2012 end.
Admin / Accountants etc
? key growth driver is Diagnostics & Pathology Services.
Another 44%
Outsourcing of Pathology and Laboratory tests by foreign hospital Core Activities including
Marketing and BD
chains (due to the highly favourable cost differential in India), is by function
expected to grow with time. There are about 100,000 diagnostic Customer Service
laboratories in India. This is about half the number of those in the US.
Senior Management
India’s diagnostics sector is expected to grow at about 20% to reach
about $2 billion in size by the end of 2013.
With availability of a huge patient pool, clinical trial of drugs is
? 39%
possible in India at 60% of the cost abroad. This is expected to help in
the expansion of this sub-sector.
Increased government expenditure on Healthcare, increasing coverage
?
of health insurance, low current coverage of Healthcare services, etc.
will also significantly drive domestic demand. McKinsey-CII estimates
the number of potential insurable lives at 315 million, with a potential
of US$ 7,700 million in health insurance premium by 2015.
? the important bottlenecks for the sector is shortage in trained
One of
manpower. Wherein there is a surplus of about 500,000 qualified 14%
practitioners in Indian system of medicine, shortage in allopathic 25%
stream runs to around 700,000 doctors. To address this situation, the
Government is working towards capacity expansion in medical
institutions. Government is also contemplating on allowing diaspora
Campus
practitioners having Post Graduate degrees from USA, UK, Canada,
Australia and New Zealand to practice in India. HR Agency
Telemedicine is another important area receiving a lot of attention. If
? by hiring sources Referrals
used effectively, it can multiply the utilization of scarce human 6% 32%
Social Media
medical personnel. It will open doors for the rural population to
access quality healthcare and at the same time, significantly improve Others
the productivity of medical personnel.
23%
Increase in Salary
Lateral Job Shift
Estimated Employment Estimated Employment Expected Employment Expected Employment
September 2011 December 2011 March 2012 December 2012
16.1% 16.0%
3,553,100 3,621,177 3,693,650 3,894,748
Estimated increase Expected increase
during Oct - Dec 2011 during Jan - Mar 2012
Note: Employment numbers are given as round figures
10. Hospitality composition of new hires
Between October and December 2011, the 3%
Hospitality sector has added 55,121 jobs 26%
and is expected to add another 60,308 33%
jobs over January to March 2012. This < 1 Year
sector is expected to add 230,213 jobs in 1 - 4 Years
by experience
the Calendar Year 2012. 5 - 10 years
> 10 Years
The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2011 estimates travel &
?
tourism industry of India to be worth US$ 42 billion in 2010 (3.1% of
GDP). The report also forecasts it to grow at an average rate of 7.8%
over the period 2011-2020. 39%
The report ranks India 68th globally and 12th in the Asia-pacific
?
region in terms of competitiveness. India is well placed in terms of its
natural resources (8th) and cultural resources (24th). India also
provides quite a good air transport (ranked 39th), and reasonable
ground transport infrastructure (ranked 43rd). However, some aspects
of tourism infrastructure remain somewhat underdeveloped. There
1%
are fewer hotel rooms per capita by international standard and also 13%
low ATM penetration. Other areas of concern are the policy
environment (ranked 128th), health and hygiene standards (112th)
and the human resources base (96th).
? Tourist Arrivals (FTAs) in India during 2011 was at 6.29
Foreign
million, registering a growth of 8.9% over 5.78 million in 2010. This 41% Admin / Accountants etc
is, however, lower than the 11.8% growth registered during the year Core Activities including
2010 over 2009. The growth rate of 8.9% in 2011 for India was Marketing and BD
by function
better than UNWTO’s projected growth rate of 4% to 5% for the Customer Service
world in 2011 and 7% to 9% for the Asia-Pacific region.
Senior Management
? Exchange Earnings (FEE) from international inbound tourism
Foreign
during 2011 was at US$ 16564 million compared to US$ 14193
45%
million in 2010, registering a 16.7% annual growth. The FEE had
grown by 24.6% in the previous year.
? sharp depreciation of the rupee in recent times, India has
With the
turned into an affordable destination for foreign visitors. On the
negative side, the world economic downturn may have a negative
effect on foreign tourist flow. In order to attract more foreign visitors,
India has extended the visa on arrival facility to 11 countries. At the
same time, with international travel becoming costlier for Indian
travellers, domestic demand for tourism is expected to increase in the
coming periods. 12%
In contrast, lowering economic growth rate, high land prices, low
?
floor space index (FSI), plethora of taxes, low incentive from
government and upcoming state elections can dampen the potential 30%
of sector as an engine of growth.
Campus
Rising business and leisure travel to smaller cities have increased
?
demand for quality hotel rooms in these cities. Hospitality chains are HR Agency
expected to increase their presence in smaller cities to leverage this by hiring sources Referrals
opportunity. 28%
Many hospitality chains that were earlier focused only on the luxury
? Social Media
segment are now diversifying into new product segments, such as 4% Others
budget hotels and serviced apartments, in order to reduce risks.
Moreover, hotel chains are diversifying into niche segments such as
medi-cities, wildlife lodges and spas to establish additional revenue-
generation streams.
27%
Increase in Salary
Lateral Job Shift
Estimated Employment Estimated Employment Expected Employment Expected Employment
September 2011 December 2011 March 2012 December 2012
14.9% 15.3%
6,254,000 6,309,121 6,369,429 6,539,334
Estimated increase Expected increase
during Oct - Dec 2011 during Jan - Mar 2012
Note: Employment numbers are given as round figures
11. composition of new hires
IT & ITeS
Information Technology and 7%
Information Technology Enabled Services 25%
Between October and December 2011, the 30%
Information Technology & Information < 1 Year
Technology Enabled Services sector has by experience
1 - 4 Years
added 45,821 jobs and is expected to add 5 - 10 years
> 10 Years
another 54,926 jobs over January to March
2012. This sector is expected to add
227,328 jobs in the Calendar Year 2012. 39%
According to the latest report of the Internet and Mobile Association
?
of India (IAMAI), the number of internet users in India crossed the 100
million mark in September 2011 and was expected to grow to 121
million by December 2011. The broadband subscriber base stood at
12.69 million in August 2011, according to data released by the 2% 6%
Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI).
India Information Technology Report 2011(Q3) by Business Monitor
?
International (BMI) predicts the Indian domestic market for IT products
and services to increase from US$ 19.7 billion in 2010 to US$ 41.2
billion by 2015. As per the report, the Indian market for PCs 30%
Admin / Accountants etc
(including notebooks and accessories) and IT services were worth
Core Activities including
around US$ 8 billion and US$ 7.5 billion respectively in 2011. The Marketing and BD
report has estimated a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18 by function
per cent for Indian software market over the span of 2011-2015. Customer Service
According to NASSCOM, the $88 billion Indian IT outsourcing industry
? Senior Management
is projected to touch $225 billion mark by 2020. For the FY 2011-12,
NASSCOM expects the IT services revenue growth rate to be around 62%
15%.
While the rupee depreciated by 21% in the August-December 2011
?
period, the IT sector’s net foreign exchange earnings touched US
$14.48 billion. Total export from the sector was US$25.19 billion
against forex spending of US$10.71 billion.
The Indian e-commerce market grew by 47% in 2011 to become a
?
US$ 10 billion industry. It is expected to continue to expand
exponentially with rising income, internet penetration and customers
becoming more and more comfortable with online transactions. Retail
14%
brands are also expected to bring a great transformation in the online 18%
space. Investors have poured around US$ 200 million into Indian e-
commerce start-ups in the last couple of years.
As a result of such growth, e-retailers, who want to focus on their
? 8%
core functionalities, are expected to outsource bulky back-end Campus
operations (such as customer care, order processing, invoice HR Agency
processing, finance and accounts). This may emerge as a substantial
source of revenue for BPOs. by hiring sources Referrals
The demand for cloud computing services is expected to increase
? Social Media
rapidly in India. There are already more than 50 cloud computing 29%
Others
service providers in the Indian market. Indian internet services
providers (ISPs) and data centre service providers are investing on
applications and bandwidth to support new cloud service offerings. 32%
The coming time is also expected to see rapid proliferation of Apps,
customer interactive innovations and machine to machine (M2M)
technologies.
According to the latest outlook by technology research firm Gartner,
?
worldwide IT spending will grow by 3.7% in 2012 to US$ 3.8 trillion.
In 2011, the spending was at US$ 3.7 trillion, clocking a 6.9% growth
over 2010 levels. Despite this reduced growth rate, the flow of work
to low cost destinations like India may not be affected, even if
companies in US and Europe take recourse to increased offshoring to Increase in Salary
cut costs and remain competitive. Lateral Job Shift
In association with Rockefeller Foundation, NASSCOM Foundation is
?
working towards developing a new arm of the BPO industry called
‘impact sourcing’, which essentially involves employing socio-
economically disadvantaged people as principal workers. NASSCOM
estimates that by 2020 the Indian IT-BPO industry can tap additional
revenue worth US$75 billion through innovations such as this.
Estimated Employment Estimated Employment Expected Employment Expected Employment
September 2011 December 2011 March 2012 December 2012
15.9% 18.5%
2,056,600 2,102,421 2,157,347 2,329,749
Estimated increase Expected increase
during Oct - Dec 2011 during Jan - Mar 2012
Note: Employment numbers are given as round figures
12. Manufacturing composition of new hires
Machineries and Equipment 4%
Between October and December 2011, the 20%
Manufacturing - Machinery and Equipment
sector has added 12,336 jobs and is 34%
< 1 Year
expected to add another 12,732 jobs over by experience
1 - 4 Years
January to March 2012. This sector is 5 - 10 years
expected to add 59,180 jobs in the > 10 Years
Calendar Year 2012.
42%
The Index of Industrial production declined by 5.1% on y-o-y basis in
?
the month of October 2011. The manufacturing sector, which has a
weightage of approx 75% in the index, performed worse at a
negative growth rate of 6%. The cumulative growth for the April-
October 2011 period less than halved to 3.7%. The growth rate a
year before, for the seven month period, was 9.4%.
? goods sector showed a sharp decline on 25.5% in October
Capital 3%
9%
2011 relative to the October 2010 production figures. The cumulative
growth for the April-October 2011 period shows a decline of 0.3% 19%
over the corresponding period on 2010.
? machinery and apparatus production declined by a
Electrical
stupendous 58.8% in October 2011, when compared to October Admin / Accountants etc
2010 production level. Both Machinery and Motor vehicles subsectors’
Core Activities including
(October 2011) figures showed a decline (12.1% and 7.1% Marketing and BD
respectively) compared to October 2010. Cumulative (April-October by function
Customer Service
2011) y-o-y growth rates for these three subsectors were negative
14.2%, negative 3.3% and 10.6% respectively. These subsectors had Senior Management
logged growth rates of 3.3%, 34.1% and 36.3% respectively over
the corresponding 7 month period of last year.
? in India grew by 30% in FY 2010-11. However, the growth
Car sales
rate was down to 2.3% in the first eight months of the FY 2011-12. 69%
Major reasons cited for the downfall are high interest rates and rising
fuel prices. The manufacturers are also grappling with increased input
costs.
? global headwinds, many economists say India's troubles are
Despite
largely homegrown, and a result of the ripple effect of the interest
rate hikes. With the fiscal deficit figures way above budget
projections, scope for any further stimulus is also very limited. Political
10%
paralysis has also made it difficult to kickstart growth and investment
in the face of a plunging rupee and two years of near double-digit
inflation. The long pending list includes land acquisition bill, tax 30%
reform initiatives, new mining regulations and measures to allow
greater foreign investment in the defence and aviation sectors. Campus
Consequently, employment opportunities grew at around 4.9% only,
? 32%
HR Agency
lower than the expected 6% growth rate at the beginning of 2011.
The salary hike for lateral shifting of jobs also declined from 13.0% in
?
by hiring sources Referrals
July-Sept ‘11 period to 10.4% in Oct-Dec ’11. Social Media
Others
5%
23%
Increase in Salary
Lateral Job Shift
Estimated Employment Estimated Employment Expected Employment Expected Employment
September 2011 December 2011 March 2012 December 2012
10.4% 10.9%
1,178,400 1,190,736 1,203,468 1,249,916
Estimated increase Expected increase
during Oct - Dec 2011 during Jan - Mar 2012
Note: Employment numbers are given as round figures
13. Manufacturing composition of new hires
Non-machinery Manufacturing 1%
Between October and December 2011, the
19%
27%
Manufacturing - Non-Machinery Products
sector has added 36,941 jobs and is < 1 Year
expected to add another 40,245 jobs over by experience
1 - 4 Years
January to March 2012. This sector is 5 - 10 years
expected to add 163,075 jobs in the > 10 Years
Calendar Year 2012.
54%
The Indian Government has cleared a new manufacturing policy in
?
October 2011, which aims to create 100 million jobs and augment
the share of manufacturing in India's gross domestic product from the
existing 16% to 25% by 2022. The policy stresses on setting up more
manufacturing zones, industrial townships, and industrial hubs across
the country.
The cumulative April to October 2011 growth in consumer goods,
? 1%
12%
consumer durables and consumer non-durables sectors were lower 18%
compared to the previous year. The growth rates for 2011 were at
3.7%, 4.5% and 2.9% respectively, a significant fall from 9.1%,
15.7% and 3.9% last year.
The sectors which did well are food and beverages, basic metals and
? Admin / Accountants etc
fabricated metals (excluding machinery and equipment). All these Core Activities including
three logged a double digit growth over the first seven months of the Marketing and BD
FY 2011-12. by function
Customer Service
The sectors which did badly are tobacco, textiles, wood products,
?
chemical and rubber. All of them showed a decline in production over Senior Management
the aforementioned period. The declines in textiles and chemical are
particularly worrying, considering their large share in the production
pie.
?FMCG Companies, in the era of high inflation and increasing
Indian
commodity prices, adopted the price hike strategy and effective cost 70%
management. `Premiumization` was a key strategy employed during
the year to tap the growing middle-class segment. Indian FMCG
Industry is currently estimated to be worth Rs 2,600 billion (4.8% of
GDP). According to FICCI, the market is expected to grow at a rate of
10% over the next 10 years to reach a size of Rs 4,130 billion by
2015. 9%
According to the HSBC purchasing managers' index (PMI), the
?
manufacturing sector index increased to 54.2 in December ’11 from
51 in the November ‘11. Industry reports also mention improved 29%
domestic and foreign demand, indicating improved growth
momentum. As per the HSBC PMI report, December ’11 saw sharp Campus
rise in new order volumes, while the rate of growth of manufacturing
HR Agency
output accelerated to highest levels in four months. Manufacturing 29%
sector employment also rose in the month under review after four by hiring sources Referrals
straight months of showing job losses. But, the rate of input cost Social Media
inflation remained stubbornly above the long-run average. 3%
Others
The sluggish growth of the sector is reflected in the lower than
?
expected new job creation. New job creation numbers grew at 3.8%
over the CY 2011 against January 2011 expectation of 5.0% growth
in the year.
? in salary over lateral shifts also declined in the October-
The hike 31%
December quarter to 13.5% from 14.2% clocked in the previous
quarter.
Increase in Salary
Lateral Job Shift
Estimated Employment Estimated Employment Expected Employment Expected Employment
September 2011 December 2011 March 2012 December 2012
13.5% 14.5%
4,625,800 4,662,741 4,702,986 4,825,816
Estimated increase Expected increase
during Oct - Dec 2011 during Jan - Mar 2012
Note: Employment numbers are given as round figures
14. Media and Entertainment composition of new hires
Between October and December 2011, the 7%
Media and Entertainment sector has added 18%
38,998 jobs and is expected to add
another 43,474 jobs over January to March
26%
< 1 Year
2012. This sector is expected to add 1 - 4 Years
by experience
162,264 jobs in the Calendar Year 2012. 5 - 10 years
> 10 Years
?increasing per capita income, growing middle class and
India's
working population are generating huge domestic demand for leisure
and entertainment. India has more than 600 television channels, 100
49%
million pay-television households, 70,000 newspapers and produces
more than 1,000 films annually.
According to the Ernst & Young report ‘Spotlight on India's
?
Entertainment Economy,' the Media and Entertainment (M&E)
industry in India is expected to grow from US$ 16.3 billion in 2010 to
more than US$ 25 billion by 2015.
According to KPMG, India is the world's third largest Television (TV)
?
2%
market with almost 138 million TV households, only next to China 12%
and USA. Cable and satellite penetration has reached around 80%,
with high growth shown by the direct-to-home (DTH) service. By
2015, television is expected to account for almost half of the Indian 33%
M&E industry revenues, and more than twice the size of print media.
Admin / Accountants etc
New technologies like high definition television, set top boxes (STBs)
?
with inbuilt recorders and delivery platforms like mobiles are evolving Core Activities including
rapidly, creating ample opportunities for innovation and growth. Marketing and BD
by function
? up the radio sector to private investment and transition from
Opening Customer Service
a fixed fee to a revenue sharing license regime is helping it to grow at Senior Management
a fast pace.
? digitisation, media consumption and improving
Growing
demographics are the most important drivers responsible for the
growth of this industry. The digital subscribers (digital cables, DTH, 54%
IPTVs, etc.) are expected to surpass the analog subscribers by 2013.
Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has set March 31, 2015
as the revised deadline for digitisation of the entire industry in a
phased manner. The four metros are required to shift to digital
addressability by March 31, 2012.
The Ministry of Information and Broadcasting (I&B) also plans to push
?
for easing the process of import of equipments to speed up the 8%
digitisation process. Further liberalisation of FDI regime for cable
companies is also being considered.
The favourable growth outlook is expected to attract more investment
? 24%
in this sector and a lot more organised, corporate involvement in the
entertainment industry. This will further improve the infrastructure. 27%
Campus
For example, a film city is coming near Bengaluru, in a 300 acre plot,
at an investment of around Rs 1000 crore. HR Agency
According to Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), the
? by hiring sources Referrals
country's broadband subscriber base stood at 12.69 million in August 3%
Social Media
2011. India has also emerged as the second largest mobile internet
market. In terms of YouTube uploads, India is second only to USA. Others
This opens interesting opportunities for growth of new media outlets.
The newspaper industry also continues to gain in readership in India
?
on the back of rising literacy rates, growth of regional markets and
specialty newspapers. 39%
Increase in Salary
Lateral Job Shift
Estimated Employment Estimated Employment Expected Employment Expected Employment
September 2011 December 2011 March 2012 December 2012
15.3% 16.7%
1,443,900 1,482,898 1,526,372 1,645,162
Estimated increase Expected increase
during Oct - Dec 2011 during Jan - Mar 2012
Note: Employment numbers are given as round figures
15. composition of new hires
Pharma
Between October and December 2011, the 1%
Pharma sector has added 13,855 jobs and 21%
is expected to add another 13,642 jobs
over January to March 2012. This sector is < 1 Year
expected to add 59,957 jobs in the 1 - 4 Years
by experience
Calendar Year 2012. 5 - 10 years
46% > 10 Years
The Pharma industry in India meets around 70% of the country’s
?
demand for bulk drugs, drug intermediaries, pharmaceutical
formulations, chemicals, tablets, capsules, orals and injectibles. There 32%
are approximately 250 large units and about 8000 small units, which
forms the core of the Pharma industry in India. The large 250
companies control about 70% of the market share, with severe price
competition and government price control. The domestic
pharmaceutical industry has evolved from being purely reverse
engineering focused to a research driven, export oriented and globally
competitive entity.
2%
? of production volumes, the Indian pharmaceutical industry is
In terms 8%
ranked 4th in the world. In terms of domestic consumption value,
India is ranked 13th. The market is expected to grow to US$ 34 billion 25%
in FY 2011-12 from US$ 13 billion in FY 2006-07. Consulting firm IMS
estimates that global spending on medicines will reach 1.1 trillion
dollar by 2015. Admin / Accountants etc
According to PwC, India is expected to join the league of top 10
? Core Activities including
global pharmaceuticals markets by 2020, with total sales reaching by function
Marketing and BD
US$ 50 billion. McKinsey suggests that if aggressive growth strategies Customer Service
are implemented, the market has the potential to reach US$ 70 billion
by 2020, from US$ 13.1 billion in FY 2010-11. Senior Management
According to CARE Ratings, drugs worth $235 billion are expected to
?
go off patent in the next five years, leaving the market open for off-
patent or generic drugs. This is expected to be the primary growth 66%
driver for the Indian Pharmaceutical Industry in the next 3-5 years.
Other key growth drivers are, increased per capita expenditure on
pharmaceuticals, improved medical infrastructure, greater health
insurance penetration and shift in disease profiles.
? trend in outsourcing by global pharmaceutical companies
Growing
will further fuel the exports by Indian firms. The contract research
manufacturing companies will see a revival in demand as export
contracts from global pharmaceutical companies are expected to go 9%
up.
? saw over US$ 200 million of private equity money flowing
CY 2011 29%
into the Indian pharma space. Dealmakers expect this healthy inflow
to continue in 2012.
Campus
?pharma companies grew by 14% in 2011, as compared to 4%
Indian
growth witnessed in previous year. On the back of aggressive HR Agency
marketing initiatives, pharma companies witnessed doubling of rural by hiring sources Referrals
market sales. India's rural drug market grew by 18.8% in the 12 36%
months period ended April 2011, achieving a significantly higher Social Media
2%
growth rate than 10.9% in the previous year. Others
However, the net profit of Indian companies has come down due to
?
high interest rate costs and exchange rate fluctuations. According to
CARE, companies having foreign currency liabilities will continue to be
impacted by a weak rupee. However, the impact may be partially 24%
offset by higher export realizations.
Increase in Salary
Lateral Job Shift
Estimated Employment Estimated Employment Expected Employment Expected Employment
September 2011 December 2011 March 2012 December 2012
16.8% 15.6%
321,600 335,455 349,097 395,412
Estimated increase Expected increase
during Oct - Dec 2011 during Jan - Mar 2012
Note: Employment numbers are given as round figures