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Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics August 2019
Indianapolis August 2019 Survey – TOPLINE RESULTS 1
The Race for Mayor
With less than a week to go before their first public debate, Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett is enjoying a
comfortable lead over his main challenger, Republican Jim Merritt.
A survey of 400 likely Indianapolis voters conducted for Indy Politics by Mason Strategies has Hogsett leading
Merritt 55 percent to 27 percent. Libertarian Doug McNaughton has four percent of the vote, and another 15
percent say they are still undecided.
Hogsett benefits from a general feeling that things in the city are going well. A 53 percent majority say the city
is on the right track, and Hogsett himself enjoys a robust 73 percent approval rating. However, the
contentedness of Indianapolis voters is somewhat soft: only 25 percent “strongly” approve of the job Hogsett is
doing, and only 41 percent are “definitely” planning on voting for Hogsett.
Hogsett also benefits from a general election opponent who is still introducing himself to the voters.
Republican Jim Merritt has a positive name ID (27 percent favorable to 16 percent unfavorable), but most voters
(54 percent) say they don’t know enough to form an opinion of him or haven’t even heard of him before.
Most voters feel the city is heading in the right direction, and 69 percent of those voters are voting for Hogsett.
In contrast, only 41 percent of voters who think the city is headed on the wrong track are supporting Merritt.
“Jim Hogsett is in an enviable position a little over two months from the election, but he’s not invulnerable,”
said pollster Stephen Spiker, president and owner of Mason Strategies. “Shaking up the race would require
major investment to create a demand for change that currently doesn’t exist.”
Ballot support for Hogsett is strongest among women (59 percent), voters under the age of 40 (67 percent),
black voters (75 percent), and college-educated voters (65 percent). Partisan breaks showcase Merritt’s name ID
challenges, as Hogsett has the support of 90 percent of Democrats, while Merritt only has the support of 78
percent of Republicans. Independents break towards Hogsett 46 percent to 19 percent, with 11 percent
supporting the Libertarian and 25 percent remaining undecided.
Voters say the top issues facing Indianapolis are crime and gun violence, at 36 percent, followed by roads and
potholes at 27 percent. These are the top issues across Republicans, Democrats, and Independents, and among
both those who are positive and negative about the city’s direction. Black voters prioritize public safety and gun
violence, along with education and health care, ahead of potholes.
The poll was conducted by Aug 11-14 by Mason Strategies and has a margin of error of +/-4.9 percent. The
survey sample was composed of 42 percent Democrats, 27 percent Republicans and 26 percent identified
themselves as Independents.
Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics August 2019
Indianapolis August 2019 Survey – TOPLINE RESULTS 2
Topline Results - Indianapolis Survey
n=400 likely voters
August 11 - 14, 2018
Introduction & Screener Questions
1. First, are you or any member of your family a member of the news media, a public relations
company, or an active participant with any political campaign?
No 100%
2. When there are local elections for mayor and the city-county council, do you always vote, almost
always vote, vote most of the time, vote some of the time, hardly ever vote, or never vote?
Always vote 66%
Almost always vote 15%
Vote most of the time 19%
Mayor’s Ballot
3. If the election for Mayor of Indianapolis were held tomorrow, would you vote for [ROTATE] Joe
Hogsett, the Democrat, Jim Merritt, the Republican [END ROTATE], or Douglas McNaughton, the
Libertarian? IF VOTE: Is that definitely or likely?
TOTAL MERRITT 27%
Definitely Merritt 20%
Likely Merritt 7%
TOTAL HOGSETT 55%
Definitely Hogsett 41%
Likely Hogsett 14%
TOTAL McNAUGHTON 4%
Definitely McNaughton 1%
Likely McNaughton 3%
Undecided/Refused 15%
Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics August 2019
Indianapolis August 2019 Survey – TOPLINE RESULTS 3
Images
Next, I’m going to read you some names. For each, please tell me whether you have a favorable or
unfavorable opinion of that person. If you have no opinion or have never heard of them, just say so. IF
FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE, PROBE: Is that very or somewhat? RANDOMIZE SERIES
TOTAL
FAV
TOTAL
UNFAV
Very
Fav
S’what
Fav
S’what
Unfav
Very
Unfav
No
Opinion
Never
Heard of
4. Donald Trump 38% 58% 29% 9% 6% 52% 4% *
5. Mike Pence 43% 51% 29% 14% 9% 42% 5% *
6. Joe Hogsett 68% 19% 28% 36% 13% 9% 12% 3%
7. Pete Buttigieg 41% 28% 21% 20% 5% 23% 15% 13%
8. Jim Merritt 27% 16% 9% 18% 11% 5% 32% 22%
9. Curtis Hill 14% 30% 4% 10% 11% 19% 27% 27%
Issues & Job Approval
10. What is the top one or two most important issues you want the candidates running for mayor to
address right now? [OPEN-END]
Roads/Potholes/Infrastructure 27%
Public safety/Crime/Gangs 25%
Gun control/Gun violence 11%
Education 11%
Healthcare/Medicaid 8%
Jobs/Economy 8%
Illegal immigration/Working with ICE 7%
Ethics in government/Reform 6%
Taxes 5%
Transportation/Traffic 4%
Social/Cultural issues 3%
County services & facilities 2%
Homelessness 2%
Police issues/police reform 2%
Cost of living 1%
Seniors/Aging *
Protecting workers/unions *
Other 3%
DK/Refused 5%
Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics August 2019
Indianapolis August 2019 Survey – TOPLINE RESULTS 4
11. Moving on, would you say that things in Indiana are headed in the right direction, or have things
gotten off on the wrong track?
Right Direction 54%
Wrong Track 33%
DK/Refused 13%
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Eric Holcomb is doing as Governor? PROBE: Is that
strongly or somewhat?
TOTAL APPROVE 60%
Strongly approve 17%
Somewhat approve 43%
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 24%
Strongly disapprove 16%
Somewhat disapprove 8%
DK/Refused 16%
13. Now thinking about things here in the city, would you say that things in the city of Indianapolis
are headed in the right direction, or have things gotten off on the wrong track?
Right Direction 53%
Wrong Track 38%
DK/Refused 9%
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Joe Hogsett is doing as Mayor of Indianapolis?
PROBE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
TOTAL APPROVE 71%
Strongly approve 25%
Somewhat approve 46%
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 24%
Strongly disapprove 15%
Somewhat disapprove 9%
DK/Refused 6%
Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics August 2019
Indianapolis August 2019 Survey – TOPLINE RESULTS 5
15. As you may know, the City-County Council governs the city of Indianapolis and Marion County,
and has 25 districts. How familiar are you with the City-Councilor that represents your district?
TOTAL FAMILIAR 32%
Very familiar 9%
Somewhat familiar 23%
TOTAL NOT FAMILIAR 66%
Not too familiar 32%
Not at all familiar 34%
DK/Refused 3%
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that the City-County Council as a whole is doing?
PROBE: Is that strongly or somewhat?
TOTAL APPROVE 43%
Strongly approve 5%
Somewhat approve 38%
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 31%
Strongly disapprove 21%
Somewhat disapprove 10%
DK/Refused 26%
17. If the election were held tomorrow, would you [ROTATE] vote to re-elect your City-County
Council Member OR vote to replace your City-County Council Member?
Re-elect 30%
Replace 25%
Undecided [vol.] 28%
DK/Refused 17%
Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics August 2019
Indianapolis August 2019 Survey – TOPLINE RESULTS 6
18. If the election for your city-county council member were held tomorrow, would you vote for
[ROTATE] the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate [END ROTATE] in your district?
IF VOTE: Is that definitely or likely?
TOTAL REPUBLICAN 31%
Definitely Republican 18%
Likely Republican 13%
TOTAL DEMOCRAT 49%
Definitely Democrat 31%
Likely Democrat 18%
Undecided/Refused 21%
Education Policy
19. Switching topics to education… Based on your experience, would you say public education in
Marion County is on the right track or wrong track?
Right Track 31%
Wrong Track 49%
DK/Refused 19%
20. Now thinking specifically one type of public schools, would you say charter schools in Marion
County are on the right track or wrong track?
Right Track 34%
Wrong Track 37%
DK/Refused 28%
21. Based on what you know specifically about the Indianapolis Public Schools district, or I-P-S
district, would you say it is on the right track or wrong track?
Right Track 32%
Wrong Track 46%
DK/Refused 22%
Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics August 2019
Indianapolis August 2019 Survey – TOPLINE RESULTS 7
22. Do you favor or oppose using tax dollars to provide school choice to allow parents to place their
children in the public or private school which best serves their needs?
TOTAL FAVOR 55%
Strongly favor 32%
Somewhat favor 23%
TOTAL OPPOSE 40%
Strongly oppose 11%
Somewhat oppose 29%
Undecided/Refused 6%
Demographics
23. Wrapping up, I have just a few more questions for demographic purposes only. First, in which of
the following ranges is your age:
18-40 26%
41-54 24%
55-64 26%
65 or older 25%
Refused 1%
24. Gender:
Male 53%
Female 47%
25. Which of the following best describes your race or ethnicity?
White 69%
Hispanic or Latino 2%
African-American 22%
Asian-American 1%
Something else 5%
Refused 1%
Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics August 2019
Indianapolis August 2019 Survey – TOPLINE RESULTS 8
26. If you had to label yourself, would you say you are a [ROTATE] liberal, moderate, or
conservative in your political beliefs? IF LIBERAL OR CONSERVATIVE, PROBE: Is that very
[liberal/conservative] or somewhat?
TOTAL CONSERVATIVE 32%
Very conservative 16%
Somewhat conservative 16%
TOTAL MODERATE 38%
TOTAL LIBERAL 28%
Somewhat liberal 17%
Very liberal 11%
DK/Refused 3%
27. In politics, do you generally consider yourself to be a (ROTATE) Republican, Independent, or
Democrat? IF REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT, PROBE: Is that a strong (Republican/Democrat) or
not-so-strong?
TOTAL REPUBLICAN 27%
Strong Republican 19%
Not-so-strong Republican 8%
TOTAL INDEPENDENT 26%
TOTAL DEMOCRAT 42%
Not-so-strong Democrat 10%
Strong Democrat 32%
Other 1%
DK/Refused 4%
28. What is the highest level of education you have completed?
Some high school 4%
Graduated high school 29%
Some college or associate’s 32%
Graduated college 21%
Masters/Post-Graduate 15%
Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics August 2019
Indianapolis August 2019 Survey – TOPLINE RESULTS 9
29. Which of the following categories best describes your annual household income?
IF REFUSED INITIALLY: This information is for demographic purposes and is confidential. Which
of these broad income categories best describes your annual household income?
Less than $25,000 7%
$25,000 to less than $50,000 24%
$50,000 to less than $100,000 31%
$100,000 to less than $150,000 14%
$150,000 or more 9%
DK/Refused 15%
Thank you for your time. This call was authorized and paid for by Indy Politics.
Methodology Statement
On behalf of IndyPolitics.org, Mason Strategies, LLC, a research firm located out of Woodbridge, Virginia, conducted a telephone
survey of 400 likely voters in Marion County, Indiana. The survey was completed from August 11 - 14, 2018 using live
interviewers from a call center who called of landline and cell phones. 50% of the interviews were completed on cell phones.
The survey used RBS (Registration-Based Sampling) methodology, using voter registration records to create a random sample of
voters who have voted in at least two of the previous four general elections, or were newly registered to vote. The final sample
was weighted for age and education.
The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.9% at the 95% confidence level. The margin of error applies to each individual data
point at the topline level. When applying margins of error to relative analysis (e.g., a ballot test), it would apply to each data
point and not the margin between the two. Thus, even a difference greater than 4.9% between two data points may not be
statistically significant. Sampling error is larger for subgroup analysis.
Pollster Contact:
Stephen Spiker
President & Owner of Mason Strategies
(757) 618-0676
email: stephen.spiker@gmail.com
www.masonstrategies.com
Sponsor Contact:
Abdul-Hakim Shabazz
IndyPolitics.org
(317) 727-1250
attyabdul@gmail.com

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Indianapolis august 2019 survey toplines [all qs] 082219

  • 1. Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics August 2019 Indianapolis August 2019 Survey – TOPLINE RESULTS 1 The Race for Mayor With less than a week to go before their first public debate, Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett is enjoying a comfortable lead over his main challenger, Republican Jim Merritt. A survey of 400 likely Indianapolis voters conducted for Indy Politics by Mason Strategies has Hogsett leading Merritt 55 percent to 27 percent. Libertarian Doug McNaughton has four percent of the vote, and another 15 percent say they are still undecided. Hogsett benefits from a general feeling that things in the city are going well. A 53 percent majority say the city is on the right track, and Hogsett himself enjoys a robust 73 percent approval rating. However, the contentedness of Indianapolis voters is somewhat soft: only 25 percent “strongly” approve of the job Hogsett is doing, and only 41 percent are “definitely” planning on voting for Hogsett. Hogsett also benefits from a general election opponent who is still introducing himself to the voters. Republican Jim Merritt has a positive name ID (27 percent favorable to 16 percent unfavorable), but most voters (54 percent) say they don’t know enough to form an opinion of him or haven’t even heard of him before. Most voters feel the city is heading in the right direction, and 69 percent of those voters are voting for Hogsett. In contrast, only 41 percent of voters who think the city is headed on the wrong track are supporting Merritt. “Jim Hogsett is in an enviable position a little over two months from the election, but he’s not invulnerable,” said pollster Stephen Spiker, president and owner of Mason Strategies. “Shaking up the race would require major investment to create a demand for change that currently doesn’t exist.” Ballot support for Hogsett is strongest among women (59 percent), voters under the age of 40 (67 percent), black voters (75 percent), and college-educated voters (65 percent). Partisan breaks showcase Merritt’s name ID challenges, as Hogsett has the support of 90 percent of Democrats, while Merritt only has the support of 78 percent of Republicans. Independents break towards Hogsett 46 percent to 19 percent, with 11 percent supporting the Libertarian and 25 percent remaining undecided. Voters say the top issues facing Indianapolis are crime and gun violence, at 36 percent, followed by roads and potholes at 27 percent. These are the top issues across Republicans, Democrats, and Independents, and among both those who are positive and negative about the city’s direction. Black voters prioritize public safety and gun violence, along with education and health care, ahead of potholes. The poll was conducted by Aug 11-14 by Mason Strategies and has a margin of error of +/-4.9 percent. The survey sample was composed of 42 percent Democrats, 27 percent Republicans and 26 percent identified themselves as Independents.
  • 2. Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics August 2019 Indianapolis August 2019 Survey – TOPLINE RESULTS 2 Topline Results - Indianapolis Survey n=400 likely voters August 11 - 14, 2018 Introduction & Screener Questions 1. First, are you or any member of your family a member of the news media, a public relations company, or an active participant with any political campaign? No 100% 2. When there are local elections for mayor and the city-county council, do you always vote, almost always vote, vote most of the time, vote some of the time, hardly ever vote, or never vote? Always vote 66% Almost always vote 15% Vote most of the time 19% Mayor’s Ballot 3. If the election for Mayor of Indianapolis were held tomorrow, would you vote for [ROTATE] Joe Hogsett, the Democrat, Jim Merritt, the Republican [END ROTATE], or Douglas McNaughton, the Libertarian? IF VOTE: Is that definitely or likely? TOTAL MERRITT 27% Definitely Merritt 20% Likely Merritt 7% TOTAL HOGSETT 55% Definitely Hogsett 41% Likely Hogsett 14% TOTAL McNAUGHTON 4% Definitely McNaughton 1% Likely McNaughton 3% Undecided/Refused 15%
  • 3. Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics August 2019 Indianapolis August 2019 Survey – TOPLINE RESULTS 3 Images Next, I’m going to read you some names. For each, please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you have no opinion or have never heard of them, just say so. IF FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE, PROBE: Is that very or somewhat? RANDOMIZE SERIES TOTAL FAV TOTAL UNFAV Very Fav S’what Fav S’what Unfav Very Unfav No Opinion Never Heard of 4. Donald Trump 38% 58% 29% 9% 6% 52% 4% * 5. Mike Pence 43% 51% 29% 14% 9% 42% 5% * 6. Joe Hogsett 68% 19% 28% 36% 13% 9% 12% 3% 7. Pete Buttigieg 41% 28% 21% 20% 5% 23% 15% 13% 8. Jim Merritt 27% 16% 9% 18% 11% 5% 32% 22% 9. Curtis Hill 14% 30% 4% 10% 11% 19% 27% 27% Issues & Job Approval 10. What is the top one or two most important issues you want the candidates running for mayor to address right now? [OPEN-END] Roads/Potholes/Infrastructure 27% Public safety/Crime/Gangs 25% Gun control/Gun violence 11% Education 11% Healthcare/Medicaid 8% Jobs/Economy 8% Illegal immigration/Working with ICE 7% Ethics in government/Reform 6% Taxes 5% Transportation/Traffic 4% Social/Cultural issues 3% County services & facilities 2% Homelessness 2% Police issues/police reform 2% Cost of living 1% Seniors/Aging * Protecting workers/unions * Other 3% DK/Refused 5%
  • 4. Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics August 2019 Indianapolis August 2019 Survey – TOPLINE RESULTS 4 11. Moving on, would you say that things in Indiana are headed in the right direction, or have things gotten off on the wrong track? Right Direction 54% Wrong Track 33% DK/Refused 13% 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Eric Holcomb is doing as Governor? PROBE: Is that strongly or somewhat? TOTAL APPROVE 60% Strongly approve 17% Somewhat approve 43% TOTAL DISAPPROVE 24% Strongly disapprove 16% Somewhat disapprove 8% DK/Refused 16% 13. Now thinking about things here in the city, would you say that things in the city of Indianapolis are headed in the right direction, or have things gotten off on the wrong track? Right Direction 53% Wrong Track 38% DK/Refused 9% 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Joe Hogsett is doing as Mayor of Indianapolis? PROBE: Is that strongly or somewhat? TOTAL APPROVE 71% Strongly approve 25% Somewhat approve 46% TOTAL DISAPPROVE 24% Strongly disapprove 15% Somewhat disapprove 9% DK/Refused 6%
  • 5. Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics August 2019 Indianapolis August 2019 Survey – TOPLINE RESULTS 5 15. As you may know, the City-County Council governs the city of Indianapolis and Marion County, and has 25 districts. How familiar are you with the City-Councilor that represents your district? TOTAL FAMILIAR 32% Very familiar 9% Somewhat familiar 23% TOTAL NOT FAMILIAR 66% Not too familiar 32% Not at all familiar 34% DK/Refused 3% 16. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that the City-County Council as a whole is doing? PROBE: Is that strongly or somewhat? TOTAL APPROVE 43% Strongly approve 5% Somewhat approve 38% TOTAL DISAPPROVE 31% Strongly disapprove 21% Somewhat disapprove 10% DK/Refused 26% 17. If the election were held tomorrow, would you [ROTATE] vote to re-elect your City-County Council Member OR vote to replace your City-County Council Member? Re-elect 30% Replace 25% Undecided [vol.] 28% DK/Refused 17%
  • 6. Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics August 2019 Indianapolis August 2019 Survey – TOPLINE RESULTS 6 18. If the election for your city-county council member were held tomorrow, would you vote for [ROTATE] the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate [END ROTATE] in your district? IF VOTE: Is that definitely or likely? TOTAL REPUBLICAN 31% Definitely Republican 18% Likely Republican 13% TOTAL DEMOCRAT 49% Definitely Democrat 31% Likely Democrat 18% Undecided/Refused 21% Education Policy 19. Switching topics to education… Based on your experience, would you say public education in Marion County is on the right track or wrong track? Right Track 31% Wrong Track 49% DK/Refused 19% 20. Now thinking specifically one type of public schools, would you say charter schools in Marion County are on the right track or wrong track? Right Track 34% Wrong Track 37% DK/Refused 28% 21. Based on what you know specifically about the Indianapolis Public Schools district, or I-P-S district, would you say it is on the right track or wrong track? Right Track 32% Wrong Track 46% DK/Refused 22%
  • 7. Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics August 2019 Indianapolis August 2019 Survey – TOPLINE RESULTS 7 22. Do you favor or oppose using tax dollars to provide school choice to allow parents to place their children in the public or private school which best serves their needs? TOTAL FAVOR 55% Strongly favor 32% Somewhat favor 23% TOTAL OPPOSE 40% Strongly oppose 11% Somewhat oppose 29% Undecided/Refused 6% Demographics 23. Wrapping up, I have just a few more questions for demographic purposes only. First, in which of the following ranges is your age: 18-40 26% 41-54 24% 55-64 26% 65 or older 25% Refused 1% 24. Gender: Male 53% Female 47% 25. Which of the following best describes your race or ethnicity? White 69% Hispanic or Latino 2% African-American 22% Asian-American 1% Something else 5% Refused 1%
  • 8. Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics August 2019 Indianapolis August 2019 Survey – TOPLINE RESULTS 8 26. If you had to label yourself, would you say you are a [ROTATE] liberal, moderate, or conservative in your political beliefs? IF LIBERAL OR CONSERVATIVE, PROBE: Is that very [liberal/conservative] or somewhat? TOTAL CONSERVATIVE 32% Very conservative 16% Somewhat conservative 16% TOTAL MODERATE 38% TOTAL LIBERAL 28% Somewhat liberal 17% Very liberal 11% DK/Refused 3% 27. In politics, do you generally consider yourself to be a (ROTATE) Republican, Independent, or Democrat? IF REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT, PROBE: Is that a strong (Republican/Democrat) or not-so-strong? TOTAL REPUBLICAN 27% Strong Republican 19% Not-so-strong Republican 8% TOTAL INDEPENDENT 26% TOTAL DEMOCRAT 42% Not-so-strong Democrat 10% Strong Democrat 32% Other 1% DK/Refused 4% 28. What is the highest level of education you have completed? Some high school 4% Graduated high school 29% Some college or associate’s 32% Graduated college 21% Masters/Post-Graduate 15%
  • 9. Mason Strategies, LLC for Indy Politics August 2019 Indianapolis August 2019 Survey – TOPLINE RESULTS 9 29. Which of the following categories best describes your annual household income? IF REFUSED INITIALLY: This information is for demographic purposes and is confidential. Which of these broad income categories best describes your annual household income? Less than $25,000 7% $25,000 to less than $50,000 24% $50,000 to less than $100,000 31% $100,000 to less than $150,000 14% $150,000 or more 9% DK/Refused 15% Thank you for your time. This call was authorized and paid for by Indy Politics. Methodology Statement On behalf of IndyPolitics.org, Mason Strategies, LLC, a research firm located out of Woodbridge, Virginia, conducted a telephone survey of 400 likely voters in Marion County, Indiana. The survey was completed from August 11 - 14, 2018 using live interviewers from a call center who called of landline and cell phones. 50% of the interviews were completed on cell phones. The survey used RBS (Registration-Based Sampling) methodology, using voter registration records to create a random sample of voters who have voted in at least two of the previous four general elections, or were newly registered to vote. The final sample was weighted for age and education. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.9% at the 95% confidence level. The margin of error applies to each individual data point at the topline level. When applying margins of error to relative analysis (e.g., a ballot test), it would apply to each data point and not the margin between the two. Thus, even a difference greater than 4.9% between two data points may not be statistically significant. Sampling error is larger for subgroup analysis. Pollster Contact: Stephen Spiker President & Owner of Mason Strategies (757) 618-0676 email: stephen.spiker@gmail.com www.masonstrategies.com Sponsor Contact: Abdul-Hakim Shabazz IndyPolitics.org (317) 727-1250 attyabdul@gmail.com