Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Industry Trends Impacting
Marketing in 2020
Tom Libby, Automotive Loyalty Principal
5Trends
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Industry has plateaued
Brands can no longer rely
on industry growth to drive
sales – it must be earned
2
Trend #1
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Recovery growth from 2008 recession has leveled off ~ 17 million
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
3
USnewlightvehiclesales(millions)
Source: IHS Markit
17.1M 16.8M
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Loyalty at all-time high for
both vehicle make and model
Reaching buyers most likely
to switch brands is key for
growth
4
Trend #2
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Both brand loyalty and model loyalty are at all-time highs
51.5% 52.9% 53.4% 53.6% 54.2%
25.1% 26.4% 26.5% 26.9% 27.4%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
2015 1 2 3 4 2016 1 2 3 4 2017 1 2 3 4 2018 1 2 3 4 2019 1 2 3*
5
*Note: Q3 2019 includes July and August only.
Make Loyalty
Model Loyalty
0.6 points ~ 54,000 Sales
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Nomads have the highest volume of shoppers and lowest brand loyalty
6
Return-to-market mix by household type
28.9%
52.9%
18.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Loyalist Nomad Super loyalist
Make loyal rate
59.2%
46.1%
71.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Loyalist Nomad Super loyalist
Time Period: August 2019 CYTD
Loyalty leaders
Ford ~ 77%
Lincoln ~ 77%
Subaru ~ 76%
Mercedes ~ 75%
Chevrolet ~ 73%
Honda ~ 73%
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
SUVs will have more
competition joining the
segment….
…but the segment isn’t
growing
7
Trend #3
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
SUV market share is plateauing
38.3% 39.1%
41.0%
42.8% 42.3% 41.6%
43.0%
44.5% 45.4% 45.5%
46.9% 47.2% 47.6% 46.8%
7.4%
9.4% 9.0%
5.9%
4.8%
2.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2016 1 2 3 4 2017 1 2 3 4 2018 1 2 3 4 2019 1 2
SUV y/y % change
8
Registration type: Total
SUVmarketshareandy/y%change
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
The number of SUV entries in the market will increase 53% by 2025
9
0
50
100
150
200
250
Pickup Car Utility vehicle
2005 2015 2018 2019 2025
Source: IHS Markit Forecasting Practice
112 109
129
135
206
70+ models
added in 5 years
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Over 47 million SUV-owning marketable households
10
5.8 mil.
Luxury
SUVs
41.3 mil
SUVs
16.8 million
of these marketable
households display no
brand loyalty
Source:
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Discontinued brands and
vehicles create opportunity
in a flat market
11
Trend #4
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
1.4 million households owning discontinued-brands are in market for new vehicle
12
Source:
Pontiac has highest OEM
loyalty rate ~ 49%
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Owners of recently discontinued sedans will be looking for a home
Continental
CT6
ELR
XTS
LaCrosse
Volt
13
Discontinued sedans
200
300
Dart
Fiesta
Focus
Taurus
Cascada
Regal
Verano
Caprice
Cruze
Impala
Sonic
SS
~ 6.5 million
marketable households
Source:
~ 44% loyalty
to sedan market
IHS Markit Loyalty Analytics August 2019 CYTD.
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Luxury brands sales can
come from outside
traditional luxury segments
14
Trend #5
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
The luxury market will expand from 16 to 20 marques by 2021
15
Land Rover
Lexus
Lincoln
Maserati
Mercedes-Benz
Porsche
Tesla
Volvo
Acura
Alfa Romeo
Audi
BMW
Cadillac
Genesis
Infiniti
Jaguar
16 luxury brands today
Acura
Alfa Romeo
Audi
BMW
Cadillac
Genesis
Infiniti
Jaguar
Land Rover
Lexus
Lincoln
Maserati
Mercedes-Benz
Porsche
Tesla
Volvo
Lynk & Co.
Lucid
Rivian
Polestar
20 luxury brands by 2021
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
~ ½ of conquests by luxury brands come from nonluxury segments
42.1% 41.6%
42.8% 41.8%
38.8%
50.2%
48.9% 48.4% 47.5% 47.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total defection, % to nonluxury Total conquest % from nonluxury
16
Source: IHS Markit
Note: Data for all years are August CYTD.
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Nonluxury owners are stepping up to their OEM luxury brand at low rates
6.1%
5.9%
4.8% 4.8%
4.1%
3.7%
3.0% 2.9%
2.6%
0.3%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
% of Volkswagen
defections going to
Audi
% of Toyota
defections going to
Lexus
% of Buick
defections going to
Cadillac
% of Honda
defections going to
Acura
% of GMC
defections going to
Cadillac
% of Ford defections
going to Lincoln
% of Hyundai
defections going to
Genesis
% of Chevrolet
defections going to
Cadillac
% of Nissan
defections going to
Infiniti
% of Kia defections
going to Genesis
17
Source: IHS Markit
Time period: August 2019 CYTD.
Audi
▲
VW
Acura
▲
Honda
Cadillac
▲
GMC
Lincoln
▲
Ford
Genesis
▲
Hyundai
Cadillac
▲
Chevrolet
Infiniti
▲
Nissan
Cadillac
▲
Buick
Lexus
▲
Toyota
Genesis
▲
Kia
Only VW & Toyota over 5%
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
Leading luxury sedan households are increasingly acquiring another sedan
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Audi Lexus MB BMW
18
Source: IHS Markit
Note: Data are August CYTD for every year.
Confidential. © 2019 IHS Markit®. All rights reserved.
19
Industry has
plateaued
1
Loyalty is at
all time high
2
SUVs will
have more
competition
3
Discontinued
brands
create
opportunity
4
Luxury sales
outside from
non-luxury
households
5
Thank you!
Tom Libby
Automotive Loyalty Principal

Increasing Marketing Efficiency by Identifying Key Industry Trends

  • 1.
    Confidential. © 2019IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. Industry Trends Impacting Marketing in 2020 Tom Libby, Automotive Loyalty Principal 5Trends
  • 2.
    Confidential. © 2019IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. Industry has plateaued Brands can no longer rely on industry growth to drive sales – it must be earned 2 Trend #1
  • 3.
    Confidential. © 2019IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. Recovery growth from 2008 recession has leveled off ~ 17 million 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 3 USnewlightvehiclesales(millions) Source: IHS Markit 17.1M 16.8M
  • 4.
    Confidential. © 2019IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. Loyalty at all-time high for both vehicle make and model Reaching buyers most likely to switch brands is key for growth 4 Trend #2
  • 5.
    Confidential. © 2019IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. Both brand loyalty and model loyalty are at all-time highs 51.5% 52.9% 53.4% 53.6% 54.2% 25.1% 26.4% 26.5% 26.9% 27.4% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 2015 1 2 3 4 2016 1 2 3 4 2017 1 2 3 4 2018 1 2 3 4 2019 1 2 3* 5 *Note: Q3 2019 includes July and August only. Make Loyalty Model Loyalty 0.6 points ~ 54,000 Sales
  • 6.
    Confidential. © 2019IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. Nomads have the highest volume of shoppers and lowest brand loyalty 6 Return-to-market mix by household type 28.9% 52.9% 18.3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Loyalist Nomad Super loyalist Make loyal rate 59.2% 46.1% 71.3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Loyalist Nomad Super loyalist Time Period: August 2019 CYTD Loyalty leaders Ford ~ 77% Lincoln ~ 77% Subaru ~ 76% Mercedes ~ 75% Chevrolet ~ 73% Honda ~ 73%
  • 7.
    Confidential. © 2019IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. SUVs will have more competition joining the segment…. …but the segment isn’t growing 7 Trend #3
  • 8.
    Confidential. © 2019IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. SUV market share is plateauing 38.3% 39.1% 41.0% 42.8% 42.3% 41.6% 43.0% 44.5% 45.4% 45.5% 46.9% 47.2% 47.6% 46.8% 7.4% 9.4% 9.0% 5.9% 4.8% 2.8% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 2016 1 2 3 4 2017 1 2 3 4 2018 1 2 3 4 2019 1 2 SUV y/y % change 8 Registration type: Total SUVmarketshareandy/y%change
  • 9.
    Confidential. © 2019IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. The number of SUV entries in the market will increase 53% by 2025 9 0 50 100 150 200 250 Pickup Car Utility vehicle 2005 2015 2018 2019 2025 Source: IHS Markit Forecasting Practice 112 109 129 135 206 70+ models added in 5 years
  • 10.
    Confidential. © 2019IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. Over 47 million SUV-owning marketable households 10 5.8 mil. Luxury SUVs 41.3 mil SUVs 16.8 million of these marketable households display no brand loyalty Source:
  • 11.
    Confidential. © 2019IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. Discontinued brands and vehicles create opportunity in a flat market 11 Trend #4
  • 12.
    Confidential. © 2019IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. 1.4 million households owning discontinued-brands are in market for new vehicle 12 Source: Pontiac has highest OEM loyalty rate ~ 49%
  • 13.
    Confidential. © 2019IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. Owners of recently discontinued sedans will be looking for a home Continental CT6 ELR XTS LaCrosse Volt 13 Discontinued sedans 200 300 Dart Fiesta Focus Taurus Cascada Regal Verano Caprice Cruze Impala Sonic SS ~ 6.5 million marketable households Source: ~ 44% loyalty to sedan market IHS Markit Loyalty Analytics August 2019 CYTD.
  • 14.
    Confidential. © 2019IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. Luxury brands sales can come from outside traditional luxury segments 14 Trend #5
  • 15.
    Confidential. © 2019IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. The luxury market will expand from 16 to 20 marques by 2021 15 Land Rover Lexus Lincoln Maserati Mercedes-Benz Porsche Tesla Volvo Acura Alfa Romeo Audi BMW Cadillac Genesis Infiniti Jaguar 16 luxury brands today Acura Alfa Romeo Audi BMW Cadillac Genesis Infiniti Jaguar Land Rover Lexus Lincoln Maserati Mercedes-Benz Porsche Tesla Volvo Lynk & Co. Lucid Rivian Polestar 20 luxury brands by 2021
  • 16.
    Confidential. © 2019IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. ~ ½ of conquests by luxury brands come from nonluxury segments 42.1% 41.6% 42.8% 41.8% 38.8% 50.2% 48.9% 48.4% 47.5% 47.2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total defection, % to nonluxury Total conquest % from nonluxury 16 Source: IHS Markit Note: Data for all years are August CYTD.
  • 17.
    Confidential. © 2019IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. Nonluxury owners are stepping up to their OEM luxury brand at low rates 6.1% 5.9% 4.8% 4.8% 4.1% 3.7% 3.0% 2.9% 2.6% 0.3% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% % of Volkswagen defections going to Audi % of Toyota defections going to Lexus % of Buick defections going to Cadillac % of Honda defections going to Acura % of GMC defections going to Cadillac % of Ford defections going to Lincoln % of Hyundai defections going to Genesis % of Chevrolet defections going to Cadillac % of Nissan defections going to Infiniti % of Kia defections going to Genesis 17 Source: IHS Markit Time period: August 2019 CYTD. Audi ▲ VW Acura ▲ Honda Cadillac ▲ GMC Lincoln ▲ Ford Genesis ▲ Hyundai Cadillac ▲ Chevrolet Infiniti ▲ Nissan Cadillac ▲ Buick Lexus ▲ Toyota Genesis ▲ Kia Only VW & Toyota over 5%
  • 18.
    Confidential. © 2019IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. Leading luxury sedan households are increasingly acquiring another sedan 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Audi Lexus MB BMW 18 Source: IHS Markit Note: Data are August CYTD for every year.
  • 19.
    Confidential. © 2019IHS Markit®. All rights reserved. 19 Industry has plateaued 1 Loyalty is at all time high 2 SUVs will have more competition 3 Discontinued brands create opportunity 4 Luxury sales outside from non-luxury households 5
  • 20.