In pursuit of black swans
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Marketers don't explore their consumers enough - leaving themselves open to unforeseen trends and missing out on opportunities
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In pursuit of black swans
- 1. © Graham Hall / THE INSIGHT EDGE 2017 T H E I N S I G H T E D G E G R A H A M H A L L In Pursuit of Blac k Swans Black Swans are game-changers They turn established markets on their head - and depose market leaders Yet they also provide huge opportunities for those who can spot them early Do marketers try hard enough to spot them? Many lack the curiosity to hunt for Black Swans And fail to avoid the dangers or take advantage of the opportunities they offer
- 2. © Graham Hall / THE INSIGHT EDGE 2017 T H E I N S I G H T E D G E G R A H A M H A L L e.g. “I know why photographers like Kodak” e.g. “I don’t know why photographers like Fuji, but I can find out” e.g. “Digital technology will make film processing obsolete” Knowns Known Unknowns Unknown Unknowns There are three categories of knowledge:
- 3. © Graham Hall / THE INSIGHT EDGE 2017 T H E I N S I G H T E D G E G R A H A M H A L L Research used to confirm assumptions Research which explores a subject with no preconceptions These correspond to different uses of market research: Research that builds on assumptions and hypothesis Endorse Knowns Expand Known Unknowns Explore Unknown Unknowns
- 4. © Graham Hall / THE INSIGHT EDGE 2017 T H E I N S I G H T E D G E G R A H A M H A L L Explore The problem is, the number of marketers willing to ‘explore’ is small. But if you don’t explore the ‘Unknown Unknowns’ they have a habit of upsetting your best laid plans. - Unknown Unknowns Endorse Knowns Expand Known Unknowns
- 5. © Graham Hall / THE INSIGHT EDGE 2017 T H E I N S I G H T E D G E G R A H A M H A L L ‘Black Swans’ defy normal expectation because nothing in the past points to their possibility. They are always: - A surprise - Have a major impact - Yet, in hindsight, they looked predictable ‘Black Swans’ live in the realm of Unknown Unknowns Black Swans live here Expand Known Unknowns Explore Unknown Unknowns Endorse Knowns
- 6. © Graham Hall / THE INSIGHT EDGE 2017 T H E I N S I G H T E D G E G R A H A M H A L L ‘Black Swans’ usually refer to global events, such as the digital photography revolution which Kodak missed or the development of ‘smart phones’, which Nokia failed to spot But Black Swans can also be small and local For example, no-one predicted the rapid growth in cider sales in the USA and, indeed, its equally rapid decline Knowns Known Unknowns Black Swans live here They can also be subtle, such as when Dove Soap rejected the idea of ‘perfect’ or Vodafone’s M-Pesa which started out as an airtime credit swapping app - but became a major peer-to-peer ‘bank’ in developing countries. Black Swans are anything you didn’t foresee - Because you didn’t look in the right place - Or you didn’t ask the right questions - Or you simply thought you already knew the answer ‘Black Swans’ are difficult to spot
- 7. © Graham Hall / THE INSIGHT EDGE 2017 T H E I N S I G H T E D G E G R A H A M H A L L How to find the Black Swans relevant to you: 1. The biggest barrier to spotting Black Swans is our own assumptions 2. We see our brands as we wish to see them, rather than how our customers see them 3. So allow for more curiosity, faith, commitment and an open mind 4. And before investing in research based on what you believe, conduct exploratory research designed to uncover your ‘blind spots’ It’ll be easier and quicker than you think and probably less expensive than you imagine Be Curious! Endorse Knowns Expand Known Unknowns Explore Unknown Unknowns
- 8. © Graham Hall / THE INSIGHT EDGE 2017 T H E I N S I G H T E D G E G R A H A M H A L L Examples of Black Swans I’ve identified: • Criteria for choosing a global professional software brand is more emotionally driven than technical • Anti-Smoking campaigns for teens are more powerful if based on discovery rather than telling teens what to think • Corporate data managers are cynical of the over- promises made by service providers. A more effective approach is to be realistic & honest I have dozens of case studies like this I can share with you. Call or email to find out more Be Curious! Graham Hall THE INSIGHT EDGE LTD 00 (44) 7590 579031 WWW.THE-INSIGHT-EDGE.COM graham@the-insight-edge.com Expand Known Unknowns Explore Unknown Unknowns Endorse Knowns