With this topic, I tried to look current arguments set by the Egyptian government about impacts of the Ethiopian Renaissance dam construction and further tried to asses its effects on the NBI.

1. Impacts Assessment of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and It's
implications on the Nile Basin Initiative
By: Biniyam Sishah

2. Back Ground
• River : Nile
• Length = 6,650 km
• Basin area = 3.4E6 km2 [1/10th of continent]
• Average flow = 2,830 m3 /s 2% of Amazon
15% of the Mississippi
• Main Tributaries:
 White Nile: 805 km and shares 15% of total flow
 Blue Nile: 1460 miles and shares 85 % of total flow
• The two major Nile’s meet at Khartoum, Sudan
• Nile riparian Countries:

3. • During Wet periods on July and August blue Nile
contributes 70%, the Atbara 20% and white Nile 10%.
• In dry periods early of may almost all the flow comes
from white Nile
• Lake Nasser has huge storage capacity of nearly168
Km3 in wet season, but evaporates 10% of its volume
every year.
• Nile for Egypt is the Source of food and transport
• Before the completion of the Aswan High Dam, the
large quantities of silt washed down from the rich
highlands of Ethiopia were deposited by the
floodwaters in Egypt, where the fertility of the riverine
lands was maintained over the centuries, despite
intensive cultivation.
Without the Nile there wouldn’t have been any Egypt

4. Political Conflicts over the Nile
Intensified during the colonial era when England tried to increase agricultural productivity in the delta.
:
1902: King of Ethiopia Agreed to consult British on any planned project on the blue Nile
1929: Exclusive agreement between Egypt and Sudan
48Mm3 and all dry season flow to Egypt, 4Mm3 to Sudan
No-one knew how much of the water was actually coming form Ethiopia.
1959: Exclusive agreement between Egypt and Sudan
55.5Mm3 & all dry season flow to Egypt, 18.5Mm3 for Sudan
Construction of Aswan, Roseires, Khashm Al-girba Dams were also agreed up on
99%
Ethiopia's response was engaging in plans to launch major projects on the
blue Nile.
No riparian countries were notified in all cases

5. 1966: Helsinki agreement of equitable share was proposed
Ethiopia rejected
the proposal
1970’s:Egypts plan to construct a canal that diverts 10% of the Nile’s water
1974:The Great Famine of Ethiopia was a rigging bell for change
1999:Nile Basin Initiative was Established to address all riparian countries

6. Nile Basin Initiative (NBI)
Is a partnership among the Nile riparian states
Main Objectives:
 Developing a sustainable and equitable win-win water gain policy and in doing so promoting
economic integration
NILE BASIN INITIATIVE STRUCTURE
Nile Council of Ministers
[NILE-COM]
Nile Technical Advisory
Committee [NILE- TAC]
The Nile Secretariat
[NILE-SEC]
Eastern Nile subsidiary Action
program Team[ENSAPT]
Nile Equatorial Lakes Council of
Minsters [NELCOM]
Nile Equatorial Lakes Technical
Advisory Committee [NELTAC]
Eastern Nile council of
Minsters [ENCOM]
Eastern Nile Technical
Regional Office [ENTRO]
Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary
Action Program CU[NELSAP-CU]
Strategic Planning and
Management Department
Water Resources
Management Department
Finance and Administration
Department

7. 2010: Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda,
Burundi and Tanzania signed a
cooperative framework agreement
seeking more water share.
Establishment and
Confidence building
Institutional
Strengthening
2011 :construction of the Great r
Renaissance dam of Ethiopia was
announced :
Consolidation
and Delivering
Institutional Framework:
1999 2008 2012 2016
Egypt and Sudan
Rejected the proposal
and construction plan
NBI was conceived as a
transitional institution until
the Cooperative Framework
Agreement (CFA)
negotiations were finalized
and a permanent institution is
created.

9. The Great Renaissance Dam of Ethiopia
Purpose = Only Hydro-electric production
Storage = 70 Mm3 [twice the size of lake Tana]
Power production = 6000 Mw of Energy
Total cost = $5Billion [10% of Ethiopian gross product]
= most of it covered by Ethiopia
After completion
Sell energy to eastern African countries
 cover most of the countries power demand
Positive impacts proposed by Ethiopia
Reduce evaporation from lake Nasser
Increases water flow downstream
Source of hydroelectric power for Eastern Africa
Reduces flood risk downstream
Reduces siltation downstream
If Ethiopia cannot use its
elevation and seasonal rains
for Hydro-electric power and
irrigation, what is it to do?

10. Negative Impacts raised by Egypt and Sudan
 What will happen while reservoir is filling?
25% flow reduction
for 3 years or more is
expected?
 When water fails in the Ethiopian highlands
what will happen?
 What if Ethiopia starts using the Dam for
water consumption purposes
 Impact of climate change on the Nile river
By 2020, 75 -250 million
people can be exposed to
increased water stress
 How will the Nile impact due to population
growth after 20 years??
It is estimated: both nations will surpass 100
million and population of the whole basin will
collectively reach 600 million.
The Grand renaissance dam poses a question as
basic as water itself:

11. What Should NBI learn from predecessor Initiatives
Previously active initiatives on the Nile basin:
 Hydromet project 1967
 Undugu from 1983 to 1992
 Technical Cooperation Committee for the Promotion of
Development and Environmental Protection of the Basin
(TECCONILE) in 1993
Why they fail to succeed
lack of inclusivity
Did not anchor the cooperation effort in a comprehensive
institutional setting and within the ambit of a Shared Vision
What needs to be done now?
 Need to strengthen cooperation b/n riparian nations and ties with
other experienced organizations working in the essence of
Integrated water resources Management. E.g. The European
Water Framework Directives approach to Integrated River
Basin management
This is the 21st century, it should not be
about who owns the Nile anymore, we
need to promote equitable sharing of
our trans-boundary water Resources and
focus all attentions in eradicating
poverty.