Quarterly growth and levels of GDP for the UK
CPI 12-month inflation rate for the last 10 years: September 2006 to September 2016
Male and Female Employment Rates in the UK
Non-UK nationals working in the UK labour market
Components of Aggregate Demand in recent years
UK unemployment rates by region, seasonally adjusted, June to August 2016
Average UK house price, January 2005 to August 2016, not seasonally adjusted
Constant price GDP per hour worked for G7 countries, 2000 to 2015
Quarterly growth of GDP and GDP per head for UK
Economic Growth for the UK and the EU(28)
UK Bond Yields during 2016
Sterling Exchange Rate (as an index number)
UK Trade Balances By Sector (% of GDP)
UK Current Account Components (% of GDP)
Contributions to CPI Inflation (%)
This document provides an economic outlook for 2015 from Ulster Bank Chief Economist Richard Ramsey. It summarizes that global output growth is picking up but inflation is no longer a problem and may lead to lower interest rates for longer. Commodity and oil prices have fallen significantly. For the UK and Northern Ireland, inflation and wage growth are moving in a positive direction, unemployment is low, and the exchange rate has strengthened the pound. However, some slowing in business activity is occurring in Northern Ireland.
In this short revision video, we look at the substantial productivity gap between the UK and many of the UK’s major competitor countries.
Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize-winning economist said twenty fives years ago that “Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything,”
The UK economy experienced strong growth in 2018, with the fastest growth in the OECD. Unemployment is at its lowest level since 1975. However, the UK also has the highest government debt as a percentage of GDP in the world. Business investment has declined recently due to uncertainties surrounding Brexit.
The document provides information on various economic indicators in Spain and internationally:
- In Spain, industrial production grew 5.1% year-over-year in March. Wages grew 0.9% and employment grew 3.5% for large enterprises. Nearly half of companies with over 20 employees have been active for over 20 years.
- The UK is Spain's fifth largest trading partner, but exports to the UK have fallen 6% since Brexit.
- US companies in the S&P 500 reported a 24.9% increase in profits in Q1 2018, with energy and materials seeing the largest gains.
- Chinese foreign direct investment in the US dropped 36% in 2017 due to capital restrictions
The document examines trends in consumer price inflation in the UK economy over time. It shows that inflation has varied from just under 1% to slightly over 5% since 1997, with an inflation target of 2% set by the Bank of England. Various charts break down inflation trends for different goods and services, as well as public expectations for future inflation. Housing, fuel and food costs make up a significant proportion of the weighted Consumer Price Index. Crude oil prices are also seen to correlate with changes in overall consumer price inflation.
The document summarizes recent economic indicators in Spain and globally. In Spain, industrial production declined 2.1% year-over-year in January driven by drops in the energy and consumer goods sectors. Business development decreased 1.2% in 2019. Labour costs increased 3% quarter-over-quarter and 2.9% for the full year 2019. Globally, composite PMIs fell sharply in February driven by declines in manufacturing and services, particularly in China. Central banks have cut interest rates to support economic confidence. Oil prices have dropped significantly in 2020 due to weaker demand and a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Quarterly growth and levels of GDP for the UK
CPI 12-month inflation rate for the last 10 years: September 2006 to September 2016
Male and Female Employment Rates in the UK
Non-UK nationals working in the UK labour market
Components of Aggregate Demand in recent years
UK unemployment rates by region, seasonally adjusted, June to August 2016
Average UK house price, January 2005 to August 2016, not seasonally adjusted
Constant price GDP per hour worked for G7 countries, 2000 to 2015
Quarterly growth of GDP and GDP per head for UK
Economic Growth for the UK and the EU(28)
UK Bond Yields during 2016
Sterling Exchange Rate (as an index number)
UK Trade Balances By Sector (% of GDP)
UK Current Account Components (% of GDP)
Contributions to CPI Inflation (%)
This document provides an economic outlook for 2015 from Ulster Bank Chief Economist Richard Ramsey. It summarizes that global output growth is picking up but inflation is no longer a problem and may lead to lower interest rates for longer. Commodity and oil prices have fallen significantly. For the UK and Northern Ireland, inflation and wage growth are moving in a positive direction, unemployment is low, and the exchange rate has strengthened the pound. However, some slowing in business activity is occurring in Northern Ireland.
In this short revision video, we look at the substantial productivity gap between the UK and many of the UK’s major competitor countries.
Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize-winning economist said twenty fives years ago that “Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything,”
The UK economy experienced strong growth in 2018, with the fastest growth in the OECD. Unemployment is at its lowest level since 1975. However, the UK also has the highest government debt as a percentage of GDP in the world. Business investment has declined recently due to uncertainties surrounding Brexit.
The document provides information on various economic indicators in Spain and internationally:
- In Spain, industrial production grew 5.1% year-over-year in March. Wages grew 0.9% and employment grew 3.5% for large enterprises. Nearly half of companies with over 20 employees have been active for over 20 years.
- The UK is Spain's fifth largest trading partner, but exports to the UK have fallen 6% since Brexit.
- US companies in the S&P 500 reported a 24.9% increase in profits in Q1 2018, with energy and materials seeing the largest gains.
- Chinese foreign direct investment in the US dropped 36% in 2017 due to capital restrictions
The document examines trends in consumer price inflation in the UK economy over time. It shows that inflation has varied from just under 1% to slightly over 5% since 1997, with an inflation target of 2% set by the Bank of England. Various charts break down inflation trends for different goods and services, as well as public expectations for future inflation. Housing, fuel and food costs make up a significant proportion of the weighted Consumer Price Index. Crude oil prices are also seen to correlate with changes in overall consumer price inflation.
The document summarizes recent economic indicators in Spain and globally. In Spain, industrial production declined 2.1% year-over-year in January driven by drops in the energy and consumer goods sectors. Business development decreased 1.2% in 2019. Labour costs increased 3% quarter-over-quarter and 2.9% for the full year 2019. Globally, composite PMIs fell sharply in February driven by declines in manufacturing and services, particularly in China. Central banks have cut interest rates to support economic confidence. Oil prices have dropped significantly in 2020 due to weaker demand and a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Klöckner & Co - German Industrials Conference 2008Klöckner & Co SE
Klöckner & Co SE is a leading steel and metals distributor with over 260 distribution locations in Europe and North America. The document provides an overview of Klöckner & Co, including its market update, strategy update, Q3 financial review, and targets and outlook. Key points include:
- Klöckner & Co confirmed a record result for 2008 but provided a weak outlook for 2009 due to the economic environment.
- The company has implemented an immediate action program in response, including cost cutting measures expected to reduce operating expenses by €20 million in 2009.
- Financially, Klöckner & Co reported strong results for Q3 and 9M 2008, with E
This document summarizes a statistics project analyzing the impact of oil price fluctuations on consumer price index (CPI) in Kenya. The project used time series and linear modeling to analyze the relationship between CPI and prices of diesel and petrol. It found a strong positive correlation between CPI and oil prices. Forecasting models predicted increasing trends in CPI and oil prices over the next 6 months. The study concluded CPI and local oil prices are directly related and both showed uptrends throughout the analysis period.
You don’t need to produce a lot of evidence in your macroeconomics exams but knowing some basic and key facts and figures can make your answers stand out from the crowd! Here is a quickfire journey through twenty important economic numbers that won’t change before the exam – use them to support your answer and impress the examiner!
Klöckner & Co - Roadshow Presentation November 2008Klöckner & Co SE
This document provides an overview and financial review of Klöckner & Co SE, a leading steel and metals distributor. Some key points:
- Klöckner has a network of over 260 distribution locations in Europe and North America and over 10,000 employees.
- Q3 and 9M 2008 results showed strong growth over prior year periods, but a weak economic outlook is expected for 2009.
- Global steel markets are currently under severe pressure due to a sharp decline in prices and slowing demand. Major steel producers have announced production cuts.
- In response, Klöckner has implemented a cost-cutting program to reduce operating expenses in 2009 by €20 million and is postponing acqu
Klöckner & Co - Roadshow Presentation December 2008Klöckner & Co SE
This document provides an overview and update from the CFO of Klöckner & Co SE, a leading steel and metals distributor. It summarizes Klöckner's financial performance in Q3 2008, confirms a record result for 2008 despite a weak economic outlook. It also outlines Klöckner's strategy update, including cost cutting measures in response to the economic slowdown, and adjustments to its financial targets and outlook for 2008 with sales expected to be slightly below €7 billion.
1. The document analyzes London's labor market performance during the recent recession compared to previous recessions in the 1980s and 1990s.
2. It finds that while GDP fell more sharply in the recent recession, unemployment and job losses were less severe than in previous recessions.
3. It examines seven potential explanations for this resilience in the labor market, finding that reductions in relative wages, strong corporate profits, and growth in the public sector likely contributed most to supporting the labor market during the recent recession so far.
Summary slides: London's labour market in the recessionsMelisaWickham
1. Both London and the UK saw steeper output declines in the 2008 recession than the 1990s or 1980s recessions, yet their labor markets have remained relatively resilient.
2. Seven potential factors are examined for explaining the strong labor market performance: lower relative wages, strong corporate profits, reduced working hours, less economic structural change, growth in the public sector, labor market changes, and low business failures.
3. Going forward, reduced wages, profits, and structural change may continue supporting recovery, while lower hours, labor market changes, and public sector cuts could slow improvement.
Self Storage Annual Report 2016 in conjunction with SSA UKCushman & Wakefield
The SSA UK / Cushman & Wakefield Annual Survey is the most comprehensive insight into the UK self storage industry ever produced. Combining data from both industry operators and the general public, the report details trends in both supply and demand for self storage in the UK. This document is essential reading for anyone investing, owning, operating or considering entering the self storage industry in the UK.
This document discusses trends in the electricity and gas markets in the Czech Republic from 2005-2013. It finds that while wholesale energy prices have declined, retail prices continued to rise for households due to taxes and renewable energy fees. However, retail prices saw their first decline in years in 2014 as wholesale prices dropped dramatically. The document also notes that customers have begun exploiting the benefits of liberalized markets, switching suppliers in large numbers. As a result, alternative suppliers have gained significant market share while historically dominant suppliers like CEZ and RWE have lost customers. Energy companies are now pursuing new combined products, targeting customers individually, and exploring new retail channels to find new sources of growth.
This is a presentation on aspects of the recent performance of the UK economy. All students are expected to have a good contextual knowledge of recent trends in indicators such as economic growth, inflation, unemployment, the trade balance, interest rates and government borrowing.
The document provides an economic summary and outlook for various regions including Northern Ireland, the UK, Eurozone and globally. It discusses:
1) Recent signs of economic recovery in many regions based on indicators like GDP growth, manufacturing and services output. However, the recovery remains uneven and challenges around high debt levels and fiscal austerity persist.
2) Northern Ireland's private sector growth picked up recently compared to slowing in the UK and Republic of Ireland, though employment and construction levels still lag pre-recession peaks.
3) Continued cuts to UK public spending are needed to reduce large budget deficits and debt levels, with spending set to fall substantially over the next few years. Significant challenges around high borrowing and reducing debt
The document provides an overview of recent economic indicators from Europe, the US, Japan and Germany. It summarizes GDP forecasts, inflation rates, unemployment, consumer confidence indexes and other metrics. According to the document, GDP growth is expected to improve in the US and Eurozone in 2014, while Japan's GDP forecast was lowered slightly. Inflation remains a concern in the Eurozone. The German economy started 2014 promisingly with rising business sentiment indicators.
European energy markets observatory findings edition #15Capgemini
European Energy Markets Observatory (EEMO) analyzes the European energy markets in 2012 and winter 2012/2013. Key points include:
- Energy consumption is stagnating due to economic slowdown and efficiency measures, while oil prices remain high due to instability in the Middle East.
- Energy efficiency is a strategic priority but challenging to implement, particularly in transportation and buildings.
- Unconventional gas production, like shale gas, continues to develop and could reduce Europe's gas import dependency by 2030.
- Renewable energy development is slowing due to reduced subsidies amid public deficits.
The document provides an economic outlook overview for October 2013. It summarizes consensus GDP forecasts for Europe, the US, and Japan. For Europe, it notes improving industrial and consumer confidence in the EU, while the ECB kept interest rates unchanged. In the US, recovery has been hurt by the government shutdown. Japan took a small step to reduce debt by raising sales tax. Charts show historical GDP, inflation, unemployment, and other economic indicator trends in the EU. The report also summarizes IFO and Zenith economic indicator forecasts.
The document provides an overview of recent economic indicators and forecasts from Europe, the US, Japan, and Germany in October 2013. Key points include:
- The Eurozone GDP growth forecast remained flat at 0.0% for 2013 and 1.3% for 2014, while the ECB unexpectedly cut interest rates to 0.25% due to deflation concerns.
- US GDP growth was revised up to 1.7% for 2013 and remained at 2.6% for 2014 following stronger than expected third quarter growth.
- Japan's GDP forecast remained unchanged at 1.9% for 2013 but declined slightly to 1.6% for 2014, despite other improving economic parameters.
- The IFO Business Climate Index
Presentation to jelf employee benefits seminar 13 july 2015Mark Beatson
The UK economy is expected to see sustained but modest growth over the next five years, with further employment increases and some tightening in the labour market. However, real wage growth is unlikely unless productivity recovers from its below-pre-recession levels. Additional fiscal consolidation is anticipated in the public sector, while employment growth will be concentrated among workers over 50. Demand will be strongest for high-skilled jobs, but questions remain about the UK's skills supply matching these requirements.
Economic indicators april 2014 houstonSappiHouston
The document provides an overview of recent economic indicators from Europe, the US, Japan and Germany. It summarizes GDP forecasts which remained positive for Europe and the US but fell slightly for Japan. It also reviews recent economic data on industrial confidence, unemployment, inflation and other indicators, which were mostly stable or improving. However, the IFO Business Climate index for Germany fell in March due to concerns about emerging markets and events in Crimea.
Capgemini's European Energy Markets Observatory is an annual report that was initiated in 2002. It tracks the progress of two subjects: the establishment of an open and competitive electricity and gas market in EU-27 (plus Norway and Switzerland) and the reaching of the EU's 3x20 climate change objectives. The report looks at all segments of the value chain and analyzes leading-edge energy themes — digital revolution, customer experience, smart grids and demand response management — to identify key trends in the electricity and gas industries.
The 15th edition of the report covers the whole year 2012 and winter 2012/13 on the following areas: Energy Regulation, Electricity Markets, Gas Markets, Customer Transformation, Renewable Energy Sources & Local Energy Transitions and Companies’ Overview.
- US and European stock futures fell and Asian stocks dropped sharply due to concerns about global growth and the outcome of Greece's debt restructuring.
- European economic data showed a 0.3% GDP contraction in the eurozone in Q4 and weak investment, exports, and consumer spending.
- Private investors holding 20% of Greek bonds involved in the debt swap have agreed to participate in the restructuring, which aims to cut Greek debt by 53.5% and secure Greece's bailout.
- Canadian company Aecon reported higher quarterly earnings but missed revenue estimates, while its backlog was $2.39 billion.
Oil & Gas in Hungary industry profile is an essential resource for top-level data and analysis covering the Oil & Gas industry. It includes data on market size and segmentation, plus textual and graphical analysis of the key trends and competitive landscape, leading companies and demographic information. Scope * Contains an executive summary and data on value, volume and/or segmentation* Provides textual analysis of Oil & Gas in Hungary's recent performance and future prospects* Incorporates in-depth five forces competitive environment analysis and scorecards * Includes a five-year forecast of Oil & Gas in Hungary* The leading companies are profiled with supporting key financial metrics * Supported by the key macroeconomic and demographic data affecting the market Highlights * Detailed information is included on market size, measured by value and/or volume * Five forces scorecards provide an accessible yet in depth view of the market's competitive landscapeWhy you should buy this report * Spot future trends and developments * Inform your business decisions * Add weight to presentations and marketing materials * Save time carrying out entry-level researchMarket DefinitionThe oil & gas market consists of the activities of exploration, development, production, refining, storage, transportation and marketing of oil & gas. The market values given in this report reflect the total value of oil and natural gas product consumption within a country, calculated using annual average prices in each respective country. Industry volumes reflect the total consumption of oil and natural gas in millions of barrels equivalent (BOE). Any currency conversions used in this report have been calculated using constant 2009 annual average exchange rates.For the purposes of this report, Europe consists of Western Europe and Eastern Europe.Western Europe comprises Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.Eastern Europe comprises the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, and Ukraine.
Study of volatility in foreign exchange marketSunita Jindal
This study examines the relationship between foreign exchange volatility and macroeconomic factors in India. The researchers collected data on exchange rates and economic indicators from sources like RBI and NSE websites. Correlation analysis was used to test two hypotheses:
H1) Exchange rate volatility impacts stock market fluctuations.
H2) Currency market volatility affects the balance of trade.
The results found support for H1 in relation to the CHF, EUR, and partial support for the USD and JPY. H2 was supported for USD and JPY but not other currencies. The study aims to understand how exchange rate movements influence the economy.
Impact of MacroEconomic Variables on National Stock ExchangeWaquar Khan
- The document is a project guide that analyzes the impact of macroeconomic variables like inflation and exchange rates on India's National Stock Exchange.
- It outlines the profile and purpose of NSE, describes the CNX Nifty index, and explains the research methodology used involving regression analysis.
- The analysis finds that inflation has a negative influence on NSE returns while exchange rates have a positive influence, with R-squared being 43.8%. It concludes there is a significant relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock market performance.
Klöckner & Co - German Industrials Conference 2008Klöckner & Co SE
Klöckner & Co SE is a leading steel and metals distributor with over 260 distribution locations in Europe and North America. The document provides an overview of Klöckner & Co, including its market update, strategy update, Q3 financial review, and targets and outlook. Key points include:
- Klöckner & Co confirmed a record result for 2008 but provided a weak outlook for 2009 due to the economic environment.
- The company has implemented an immediate action program in response, including cost cutting measures expected to reduce operating expenses by €20 million in 2009.
- Financially, Klöckner & Co reported strong results for Q3 and 9M 2008, with E
This document summarizes a statistics project analyzing the impact of oil price fluctuations on consumer price index (CPI) in Kenya. The project used time series and linear modeling to analyze the relationship between CPI and prices of diesel and petrol. It found a strong positive correlation between CPI and oil prices. Forecasting models predicted increasing trends in CPI and oil prices over the next 6 months. The study concluded CPI and local oil prices are directly related and both showed uptrends throughout the analysis period.
You don’t need to produce a lot of evidence in your macroeconomics exams but knowing some basic and key facts and figures can make your answers stand out from the crowd! Here is a quickfire journey through twenty important economic numbers that won’t change before the exam – use them to support your answer and impress the examiner!
Klöckner & Co - Roadshow Presentation November 2008Klöckner & Co SE
This document provides an overview and financial review of Klöckner & Co SE, a leading steel and metals distributor. Some key points:
- Klöckner has a network of over 260 distribution locations in Europe and North America and over 10,000 employees.
- Q3 and 9M 2008 results showed strong growth over prior year periods, but a weak economic outlook is expected for 2009.
- Global steel markets are currently under severe pressure due to a sharp decline in prices and slowing demand. Major steel producers have announced production cuts.
- In response, Klöckner has implemented a cost-cutting program to reduce operating expenses in 2009 by €20 million and is postponing acqu
Klöckner & Co - Roadshow Presentation December 2008Klöckner & Co SE
This document provides an overview and update from the CFO of Klöckner & Co SE, a leading steel and metals distributor. It summarizes Klöckner's financial performance in Q3 2008, confirms a record result for 2008 despite a weak economic outlook. It also outlines Klöckner's strategy update, including cost cutting measures in response to the economic slowdown, and adjustments to its financial targets and outlook for 2008 with sales expected to be slightly below €7 billion.
1. The document analyzes London's labor market performance during the recent recession compared to previous recessions in the 1980s and 1990s.
2. It finds that while GDP fell more sharply in the recent recession, unemployment and job losses were less severe than in previous recessions.
3. It examines seven potential explanations for this resilience in the labor market, finding that reductions in relative wages, strong corporate profits, and growth in the public sector likely contributed most to supporting the labor market during the recent recession so far.
Summary slides: London's labour market in the recessionsMelisaWickham
1. Both London and the UK saw steeper output declines in the 2008 recession than the 1990s or 1980s recessions, yet their labor markets have remained relatively resilient.
2. Seven potential factors are examined for explaining the strong labor market performance: lower relative wages, strong corporate profits, reduced working hours, less economic structural change, growth in the public sector, labor market changes, and low business failures.
3. Going forward, reduced wages, profits, and structural change may continue supporting recovery, while lower hours, labor market changes, and public sector cuts could slow improvement.
Self Storage Annual Report 2016 in conjunction with SSA UKCushman & Wakefield
The SSA UK / Cushman & Wakefield Annual Survey is the most comprehensive insight into the UK self storage industry ever produced. Combining data from both industry operators and the general public, the report details trends in both supply and demand for self storage in the UK. This document is essential reading for anyone investing, owning, operating or considering entering the self storage industry in the UK.
This document discusses trends in the electricity and gas markets in the Czech Republic from 2005-2013. It finds that while wholesale energy prices have declined, retail prices continued to rise for households due to taxes and renewable energy fees. However, retail prices saw their first decline in years in 2014 as wholesale prices dropped dramatically. The document also notes that customers have begun exploiting the benefits of liberalized markets, switching suppliers in large numbers. As a result, alternative suppliers have gained significant market share while historically dominant suppliers like CEZ and RWE have lost customers. Energy companies are now pursuing new combined products, targeting customers individually, and exploring new retail channels to find new sources of growth.
This is a presentation on aspects of the recent performance of the UK economy. All students are expected to have a good contextual knowledge of recent trends in indicators such as economic growth, inflation, unemployment, the trade balance, interest rates and government borrowing.
The document provides an economic summary and outlook for various regions including Northern Ireland, the UK, Eurozone and globally. It discusses:
1) Recent signs of economic recovery in many regions based on indicators like GDP growth, manufacturing and services output. However, the recovery remains uneven and challenges around high debt levels and fiscal austerity persist.
2) Northern Ireland's private sector growth picked up recently compared to slowing in the UK and Republic of Ireland, though employment and construction levels still lag pre-recession peaks.
3) Continued cuts to UK public spending are needed to reduce large budget deficits and debt levels, with spending set to fall substantially over the next few years. Significant challenges around high borrowing and reducing debt
The document provides an overview of recent economic indicators from Europe, the US, Japan and Germany. It summarizes GDP forecasts, inflation rates, unemployment, consumer confidence indexes and other metrics. According to the document, GDP growth is expected to improve in the US and Eurozone in 2014, while Japan's GDP forecast was lowered slightly. Inflation remains a concern in the Eurozone. The German economy started 2014 promisingly with rising business sentiment indicators.
European energy markets observatory findings edition #15Capgemini
European Energy Markets Observatory (EEMO) analyzes the European energy markets in 2012 and winter 2012/2013. Key points include:
- Energy consumption is stagnating due to economic slowdown and efficiency measures, while oil prices remain high due to instability in the Middle East.
- Energy efficiency is a strategic priority but challenging to implement, particularly in transportation and buildings.
- Unconventional gas production, like shale gas, continues to develop and could reduce Europe's gas import dependency by 2030.
- Renewable energy development is slowing due to reduced subsidies amid public deficits.
The document provides an economic outlook overview for October 2013. It summarizes consensus GDP forecasts for Europe, the US, and Japan. For Europe, it notes improving industrial and consumer confidence in the EU, while the ECB kept interest rates unchanged. In the US, recovery has been hurt by the government shutdown. Japan took a small step to reduce debt by raising sales tax. Charts show historical GDP, inflation, unemployment, and other economic indicator trends in the EU. The report also summarizes IFO and Zenith economic indicator forecasts.
The document provides an overview of recent economic indicators and forecasts from Europe, the US, Japan, and Germany in October 2013. Key points include:
- The Eurozone GDP growth forecast remained flat at 0.0% for 2013 and 1.3% for 2014, while the ECB unexpectedly cut interest rates to 0.25% due to deflation concerns.
- US GDP growth was revised up to 1.7% for 2013 and remained at 2.6% for 2014 following stronger than expected third quarter growth.
- Japan's GDP forecast remained unchanged at 1.9% for 2013 but declined slightly to 1.6% for 2014, despite other improving economic parameters.
- The IFO Business Climate Index
Presentation to jelf employee benefits seminar 13 july 2015Mark Beatson
The UK economy is expected to see sustained but modest growth over the next five years, with further employment increases and some tightening in the labour market. However, real wage growth is unlikely unless productivity recovers from its below-pre-recession levels. Additional fiscal consolidation is anticipated in the public sector, while employment growth will be concentrated among workers over 50. Demand will be strongest for high-skilled jobs, but questions remain about the UK's skills supply matching these requirements.
Economic indicators april 2014 houstonSappiHouston
The document provides an overview of recent economic indicators from Europe, the US, Japan and Germany. It summarizes GDP forecasts which remained positive for Europe and the US but fell slightly for Japan. It also reviews recent economic data on industrial confidence, unemployment, inflation and other indicators, which were mostly stable or improving. However, the IFO Business Climate index for Germany fell in March due to concerns about emerging markets and events in Crimea.
Capgemini's European Energy Markets Observatory is an annual report that was initiated in 2002. It tracks the progress of two subjects: the establishment of an open and competitive electricity and gas market in EU-27 (plus Norway and Switzerland) and the reaching of the EU's 3x20 climate change objectives. The report looks at all segments of the value chain and analyzes leading-edge energy themes — digital revolution, customer experience, smart grids and demand response management — to identify key trends in the electricity and gas industries.
The 15th edition of the report covers the whole year 2012 and winter 2012/13 on the following areas: Energy Regulation, Electricity Markets, Gas Markets, Customer Transformation, Renewable Energy Sources & Local Energy Transitions and Companies’ Overview.
- US and European stock futures fell and Asian stocks dropped sharply due to concerns about global growth and the outcome of Greece's debt restructuring.
- European economic data showed a 0.3% GDP contraction in the eurozone in Q4 and weak investment, exports, and consumer spending.
- Private investors holding 20% of Greek bonds involved in the debt swap have agreed to participate in the restructuring, which aims to cut Greek debt by 53.5% and secure Greece's bailout.
- Canadian company Aecon reported higher quarterly earnings but missed revenue estimates, while its backlog was $2.39 billion.
Oil & Gas in Hungary industry profile is an essential resource for top-level data and analysis covering the Oil & Gas industry. It includes data on market size and segmentation, plus textual and graphical analysis of the key trends and competitive landscape, leading companies and demographic information. Scope * Contains an executive summary and data on value, volume and/or segmentation* Provides textual analysis of Oil & Gas in Hungary's recent performance and future prospects* Incorporates in-depth five forces competitive environment analysis and scorecards * Includes a five-year forecast of Oil & Gas in Hungary* The leading companies are profiled with supporting key financial metrics * Supported by the key macroeconomic and demographic data affecting the market Highlights * Detailed information is included on market size, measured by value and/or volume * Five forces scorecards provide an accessible yet in depth view of the market's competitive landscapeWhy you should buy this report * Spot future trends and developments * Inform your business decisions * Add weight to presentations and marketing materials * Save time carrying out entry-level researchMarket DefinitionThe oil & gas market consists of the activities of exploration, development, production, refining, storage, transportation and marketing of oil & gas. The market values given in this report reflect the total value of oil and natural gas product consumption within a country, calculated using annual average prices in each respective country. Industry volumes reflect the total consumption of oil and natural gas in millions of barrels equivalent (BOE). Any currency conversions used in this report have been calculated using constant 2009 annual average exchange rates.For the purposes of this report, Europe consists of Western Europe and Eastern Europe.Western Europe comprises Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.Eastern Europe comprises the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, and Ukraine.
Study of volatility in foreign exchange marketSunita Jindal
This study examines the relationship between foreign exchange volatility and macroeconomic factors in India. The researchers collected data on exchange rates and economic indicators from sources like RBI and NSE websites. Correlation analysis was used to test two hypotheses:
H1) Exchange rate volatility impacts stock market fluctuations.
H2) Currency market volatility affects the balance of trade.
The results found support for H1 in relation to the CHF, EUR, and partial support for the USD and JPY. H2 was supported for USD and JPY but not other currencies. The study aims to understand how exchange rate movements influence the economy.
Impact of MacroEconomic Variables on National Stock ExchangeWaquar Khan
- The document is a project guide that analyzes the impact of macroeconomic variables like inflation and exchange rates on India's National Stock Exchange.
- It outlines the profile and purpose of NSE, describes the CNX Nifty index, and explains the research methodology used involving regression analysis.
- The analysis finds that inflation has a negative influence on NSE returns while exchange rates have a positive influence, with R-squared being 43.8%. It concludes there is a significant relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock market performance.
Investment Banker - Issues and Considerations January PLI - 1-10-17Kevin Miller
This document discusses issues related to financial analyses underlying fairness opinions. It provides an overview of common analyses such as discounted cash flow, selected companies, and selected transactions. It notes that the purpose of a "football field" summary is to concisely outline key financial analyses for a fairness opinion in an easy to understand format. The document also discusses considerations in selecting methodologies, assumptions, and inputs for analyses and how different analyses have unique strengths and limitations given a company's specific facts and circumstances.
Oilsixwww.oilsix.com is a one sentence document containing a website URL. The URL is for the website oilsix.com but no other information is provided about the website or its purpose.
M&A activity in the o&g industry is at its lowest point in years. The number of deals in the first half of 2016 was 198, an "extremely low" number compared to what it has been in past years.
Crowdfunding and the Oil Industry with Travis M PohlTravis M. Pohl
A company based in Texas is doing really exciting stuff by merging crowdfunding and oil production. Travis M Pohl shares some information about Crudefunding. Enjoy!
Wilcox Swartzwelder & Co. announced the sale of AggieTech Operating, LLC's salt water disposal well assets to Oilfield Water Logistics. AggieTech developed and operated seven high-quality salt water disposal wells in the Permian Basin. The AggieTech team will now work for Oilfield Water Logistics in the Permian Basin. Toben Scott, President of AggieTech, praised Wilcox Swartzwelder for their work in identifying qualified buyers and navigating the transaction. Jason Wilcox said the acquisition provides an opportunity for continued growth for both companies.
1) The document provides advice on selling a business for maximum price, discussing reasons for selling, the best timing, valuation methods, finding buyers, and preparing the business and sale process.
2) Key points include that the best time to sell is when the business is performing well and prospects are bright, and that the only way to determine actual maximum value is by creating a competitive market through running a transaction process.
3) Valuation estimates can be made using earnings-based approaches like discounted cash flow analysis or capitalization of earnings ratios, and market-based approaches like comparable public company analysis, but the actual sale price depends on generating buyer interest and competition.
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Impact of oil and gas price shocks on GDP growth and stock returns in CEE
1. ESTIMATION OF THE IMPACT OF OIL AND GAS PRICE SHOCKS
ON GDP GROWTH AND STOCK RETURNS
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE
ALEXEY IVASHCHENKO
MS candidate
HEC PARIS
SEP. 25TH
3. WHY IS IT IMPORTANT?
Fuel prices are volatile
Since 1999 they have been even more volatile than
EM equity asset class
Energy prices do affect companies’ and
governments’ financials
On corporate level fuel price shocks are transmitted
through expected earnings; on government level
balances of payments are usually affected the most
If a company or a government isn’t
hedged against energy price shocks, than
financial investor is at risk as well
Annualized volatility of asset classes, %, 1999-2013
25
24,5
20
19,2
15
15,3
10
5
0
Energy
And these are mostly mutual exposures to Russia
I. RATIONALE
DM Equity
Source: MSCI, IMF, author’s calculations
Net import to total primary supply, %, 2012
-38,9
Natural Gas
Hedging opportunities are limited even at the
corporate level; among big national energy traders
only Mexico is hedging oil revenues more or less
successfully
Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is
especially exposed to hydrocarbons price
shocks
EM Equity
Russia
Other CEE
86,9
-89,0
Crude Oil
86,8
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
Source: IEA, author’s calculations
3
4. MAJOR RELEVANT STUDIES
Oil and economic activity
Early papers focused on the
pass-through from oil prices per se to
growth (of the U.S. economy), no
consensus achieved
Hamilton (1983), Mork (1989), Raymond and Rich
(1997) etc.
As a results, some scholars attempted
to find non-linearity in transmission
mechanism
Hamilton (2003)
Oil and stock returns
As for macroeconomic effects, mostly
transmission from oil price changes to
equity returns was first studied; higher
oil prices were usually associated with
lower stock returns (at least in DM)
Sadorsky (1999), Driesprong, Jacobsen and Maat
(2008) etc.
This result was often challenged in
country-wise and industry-wise studies
Nandha and Faff (2008), Fayyad and Daly (2011)
Kilian (2008, 2009), Kilian and Park (2009) proposed new approach to the problem and
attempted to endogenize oil price changes using structural VAR models. This approach
was proved to be successful to study the pass-through from oil shocks to macro activity
and stock returns not only in the U.S.
Apergis and Miller (2009), Basher, Haug and Sadorsky (2012), Wang, Wu and Yang (2013)
II. METHODOLOGY
4
5. KILIAN’S APPROACH
The corner stone is the global oil market monthly structural VAR model:
j
A0 zt
i 1
Ai zt -i
t
Here 𝑧 𝑡 is a column-vector of three variables: percent change in world crude oil production, index
of global industrial activity and real price of crude oil, 𝛼 is a 31 vector of regression constants, 𝐴 𝑖 are matrices
of regression coefficients and 𝜀 𝑡 is is an i.i.d. 31 error term
This model is identified as follows:
zt
A0
1
A0
j
1
i 1
Ai zt -i
e1 t global oil production
et
a11
0
0
global
e2t real activity
real
e3t price of oil
a21
a31
a22
a32
0
a33
et
oil supply shock
1t
aggregate demand shock
2t
oil specific demand shock
3t
Pass-through from identified (quarterly averaged) structural oil-related shocks to GDP
growth is estimated by fixed distributed lag models with growth being dependent
variable and oil shocks being predictors. pass-through to stock returns is estimated by
the same SVAR as before but expanded with the forth equation for equity returns
II. METHODOLOGY
5
6. NATURAL GAS INSTEAD OF CRUDE OIL – WHY NOT?
Gas is an important fuel in CEE
In 9 out of 12 considered countries the share of
natural gas in TPES is higher than that of crude oil
Gas prices in Europe are pretty volatile
albeit oil prices fluctuate more
To adapt Kilian’s approach to gas one
needs to construct monthly European gas
supply and economic activity series
Annualized monthly price volatility, %, 1999-2013
30
28,9
25
Share of fuels in total TPES*, %, 2011
Ukraine
9,8
Turkey
37,3
27,7
Slovenia
19,9
Russia
18,9
15
10
Romania
Poland
0
Crude oil, average
Natural gas, Europe
Source: World Bank Pink Sheets, author’s calculations
II. METHODOLOGY
27,3
54,5
24,1
25,4
Lithuania
31,0
12,5
34,1
Latvia
Hungary
37,6
26,6
25,0
8,7 9,1
Czech
5
10,2
19,9
Estonia
20
32,2
35,3
Slovakia
Oil
Gas
30,4
37,3
20,4
0
16,8
20
40
60
80
Source: IEA, author’s calculations
* TPES – total primary energy supply
6
7. DATA INPUT
Three-dimension global oil model:
Global monthly oil production (EIA data, m-o-m % growth rates)
Global real activity index (constructed by Kilian, available from his web page)
Based on international freight rates, % deviation from long-term trend, 1st difference used in VARs
Real price of oil (WB data, average of three sorts, US CPI deflated, m-o-m rates)
Three-dimension European gas model:
OECD Europe natural gas net supply (Eurostat and IEA data, m-o-m rates)
Net supply is production plus import net of export, bunkers and stock changes
European real activity index (see next slide for details)
Based on electricity consumption, % deviation from long-term trend, 1st difference used in VARs
Real price of gas (WB data, average European import price, m-o-m rates)
Distributed lag models for GDP growth (in addition to structural shocks):
Quarterly real GDP growth rates (WB data in national currencies, q-o-q rates)
Four-dimension SVARs for stock returns (in addition to 3-dimension models):
MSCI USD Total Return indices for Czech, Estonia, Hungary, Poland, Russia and Turkey,
OMX USD Total Return indices for Lithuania and Latvia, local USD price return indices
for other markets (m-o-m % growth rates for all)
III. DATA AND ESTIMATION APPROACH
7
8. HOW TO CONSTRUCT MONTHLY ACTIVITY INDEX?
% to
HP
% to
linear
Industrial production
0.181
0.337
0.329
0.268
External trade
0.143
0.217
0.278
0.464
OECD electricity cons.
0.144
0.265
0.157
0.638
GDP (quarterly data)
0.015
0.178
0.323
0.570
Source: Lutz Kilian, CPB, WB, EA, ENTSOE, author’s calculations
Kilian’s index and electricity consumption, 2001-2013
60
6
40
4
20
2
0
0
-20
-4
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
-40
-60
-2
Kilian's index, lhs
OECD electricity consumption, rhs
2005
So, OECD Europe electricity consumption
(% to trend) was used as European
monthly real activity index in gas model
%
yoy
2004
OECD electricity consumption (%
deviation from linear trend) turned out
to be strongly correlated with Kilian’s
index!
Indicator
%
mom
2003
Global industrial production and global
trade in different metrics were tried but
the results were unsatisfactory
Metrics
2002
Idea: find a good monthly proxy for
Kilian’s global activity index, but one that
can be easily constructed for Europe
Correlation of different global monthly indicators with
Kilian real activity index, 2001-2013
2001
Kilian’s index, originally constructed for
the global economy using freight rates,
can’t be adapted for Europe
-6
Source: Lutz Kilian, IEA, ENTSOE, author’s calculations
III. DATA AND ESTIMATION APPROACH
8
9. NOTES ON ESTIMATION PROCEDURES
Sample period: Feb’1997 – Mar’2013 (all inputs were seasonally adjusted)
Consistency of time-series properties: all time series used in VAR models were I(0) at 1%
confidence level except for activity indices – for them 1st differences were used
Estimation of SVARs: EViews 7.0 was used, confidence intervals (CI) for impulseresponse functions (IRFs) were computed using built-in analytical approach
Lag specification in SVARs: 24 months by default (as in Kilian’s original model), if
estimated model was not stable, lag was reduced to 12 or (if again not stable) to 6
months (only gas models for Slovenia and Romania, and oil model for Romania)
Lag specification in FDLs for GDP growth: 8 quarters to correspond with lag in SVARs
IRFs of real GDP to oil- and gas-related shocks: since FDLs (estimated by simple OLS)
were run on growth rates, accumulated IRFs (with CI) were computed using simple test
for linear combination of regression coefficients w ˆ , but with enhanced Newey-West
heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent coefficients covariance matrix:
w ˆ
t
III. DATA AND ESTIMATION APPROACH
T 10,
ˆ
w VNW ˆ w
1
2
2
9
10. THREE-DIMENSION FUEL MARKET MODELS
Global oil model:
responses of real oil price
European gas model:
responses of real gas price
Supply shock
.15
.10
.05
.00
-.05
-.10
5
10
Supply shock
15
.15
.10
.05
.00
-.05
-.10
Aggregate demand shock
.15
.10
.05
.00
-.05
-.10
5
10
15
5
10
15
.15
.10
.05
.00
-.05
-.10
15
5
10
15
Gas-specific demand shock
.15
.10
.05
.00
-.05
-.10
5
One s.d. shocks, months on horizontal axis
IV. RESULTS
10
Aggregate demand shock
Oil-specific demand shock
.15
.10
.05
.00
-.05
-.10
5
10
15
Kilian’s oil model endogenizes real
oil price changes: supply shocks are
irrelevant for oil price dynamics
while aggregate demand and
precautionary oil demand shocks
do matter on 6-9 months horizon
European gas model demonstrates
comparable effects, but their
duration is different: aggregate
demand shocks significantly impact
real gas prices on 12+ months
horizon while gas specific shocks
are more short-lived
Both on global oil markets and
European gas markets price shocks
are mostly demand-driven
phenomena, but different demand
shocks shouldn’t be treated equally
10
11. GLOBAL OIL TO GDP PASS-THROUGH
Cumulative real GDP changes 4 quarters after the
global aggregate demand shock, %
CZ
EE
HU
LV
LT
PL
RO
RU
SK
SI
TR
UA
Central
tendency
1,34
1,86
0,68
1,69
1,42
0,81
1,14
1,45
1,18
1,40
0,85
2,10
Lower 95%
confidence
0,65
-0,42
-0,31
-0,48
-0,42
0,52
0,24
0,23
0,23
0,26
-0,55
0,20
Upper 95%
confidence
2,01
4,13
1,67
3,86
3,27
1,09
2,04
2,67
2,14
2,54
2,24
3,99
Czech Republic:
GDP responses
Poland:
GDP responses
Aggregate demand shock
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
-0,5
0123456789
Aggregate demand shock
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
-0,5
0123456789
Oil-specific demand shock
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
-0,5
-1,0
-1,5
-2,0
0123456789
Oil-specific demand shock
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
-0,5
-1,0
-1,5
-2,0
0123456789
One s.d. shocks, quarters on horizontal axis
Russia, the Ukraine, Slovenia and Czech Republic are among economies which react on
global aggregate demand shocks the most, while Poland shows the tightest CIs of IRFs
Positive global aggregate demand shocks are clearly GDP-increasing ones (if significant),
but oil-specific demand shocks tend to suppress growth over longer terms
IV. RESULTS
11
12. EUROPEAN GAS TO GDP PASS-THROUGH
Cumulative real GDP changes 4 quarters after the
European aggregate demand shock, %
CZ
EE
HU
LV
LT
PL
RO
RU
SK
SI
TR
UA
Central
tendency
1,56
2,21
1,48
2,61
2,24
0,57
1,98
1,72
1,31
1,82
0,87
2,45
Lower 95%
confidence
0,89
-0,46
0,63
-0,10
-0,01
0,11
0,84
-0,02
0,18
0,67
-1,14
-0,24
Upper 95%
confidence
2,24
4,87
2,33
5,35
4,49
1,04
3,12
3,46
2,44
2,97
2,87
5,15
Hungary:
GDP responses
Poland:
GDP responses
Aggregate demand shock
Aggregate demand shock
2,5
2,5
2,0
2,0
1,5
1,5
1,0
1,0
0,5
0,5
0,0
0,0
-0,5
-0,5
01234567 89
01234567 89
Gas-specific demand shock
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
-0,5
-1,0
-1,5
-2,0
0123456789
Gas-specific demand shock
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
-0,5
-1,0
-1,5
-2,0
0123456789
One s.d. shocks, quarters on horizontal axis
Slovenia and Czech Republic are again in the list of countries the most exposed to
European aggregate demand shocks, this time accompanied by Romania
Positive gas-specific demand shocks provide negative impact on GDP growth in some
countries (see Hungary) over longer terms unlike aggregate demand shocks
IV. RESULTS
12
13. GLOBAL OIL TO STOCK RETURNS PASS-THROUGH
Russia: stock returns
responses
Ukraine: stock returns
responses
Aggregate demand shock
Aggregate demand shock
20
10
0
-10
-20
5
10
15
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Oil-specific demand shock
20
10
0
-10
-20
5
10
Poland: stock returns
responses
Aggregate demand shock
Aggregate demand shock
10
5
15
0
-5
10
8
0
5
16
-8
-10
Oil-specific demand shock
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
15 -30
Romania: stock returns
responses
5
10
15
-16
Oil-specific demand shock
10
0
-5
15
15
8
0
10
10
16
5
5
5
Oil-specific demand shock
-8
-10
5
10
15
-16
5
10
15
Kilian’s global oil model doesn’t give satisfactory results in estimation of the impact of
oil-related shocks on stock returns in CEE
Effects revealed in oil-to-GDP pass-through estimation seem to be less regular for stock
returns. Oil-specific demand shocks imply higher stock returns over first couple of
months in some countries while negative longer-term impact was found only in the
Ukraine
IV. RESULTS
13
14. EUROPEAN GAS TO STOCK RETURNS PASS-THROUGH
USD stock returns over 6 months after the European
aggregate demand shock, %
CZ
EE
HU
LV
LT
PL
RO
RU
SK
SI
TR
UA
Central
tendency
4,31
5,13
9,05
4,91
4,48
8,30
7,18
8,36
3,82
3,85
5,87
7,32
-2 s.e.
+ 2 s.e.
0,91
-0,69
2,49
0,81
-1,02
1,56
-1,24
1,26
-0,66
-2,37
-2,37
0,70
7,71
10,90
15,60
9,01
9,98
15,00
15,60
15,50
8,30
10,10
14,10
13,90
Russia: stock returns
responses
Hungary: stock returns
responses
Aggregate demand shock
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Aggregate demand shock
20
10
0
-10
-20
5
10
15
-30
Gas-specific demand shock
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
5
10
15
Gas-specific demand shock
20
10
0
-10
-20
5
10
15
-30
5
10
15
One s.d. shocks, months on horizontal axis
European aggregate demand shocks impact stock returns significantly in major CEE
equity markets (apart from Turkey), but Polish market is more responsive to global ones
Gas model clearly shows the importance of distinguishing between different demandrelated shocks. Aggregate demand shocks imply higher stock returns over shorter
terms, but gas-specific shocks result in significantly negative returns over longer terms
IV. RESULTS
14
15. STOCK RETURNS VARIANCE DECOMPOSITION
Historical stock returns variance decomposition based on gas model
Hungary
13,3
Russia
11,0
Poland
12,3
Estonia
11,5
Turkey
Latvia
19,5
13,2
11,8
48,8
15,4
49,2
17,1
23,3
14,8
9,8
45,9
17,5
23,1
16,0
6,7
17,1
22,7
13,9
Slovakia
Ukraine
23,7
51,9
10,4
52,4
9,2
60,0
8,8
68,2
13,2
68,3
Slovenia 5,0 6,9
18,1
Romania
5,1 10,4
10,1
74,4
Lithuania
5,8 9,5
10,2
74,5
Czech Rpb.
6,7 8,7
8,9
75,7
0
10 20 30
Gas supply in Europe
Gas-specific demand shock
IV. RESULTS
70,0
40
50 60 70 80 90 100
Aggregate demand in Europe
Other shocks to stock returns
European gas model is
statistically good enough to
built and analyze a historical
equity returns variance
decomposition
Three big markets (Hungary,
Russia and Poland) were
found to be driven by gasrelated shocks to a
considerable degree – less
than 50% of USD stock
returns variance comes from
disturbances not related to
gas markets
Even well-diversified equity
investor in CEE region is
hugely exposed to gas market
shocks which are rarely on
the radar of investors
15
16. SUMMARY OF MAIN FINDINGS
One can’t make any reasonable conclusions regarding the impact of oil or gas price
shocks on GDP growth and stock returns in CEE without knowing the factors which
stand behind price increases – aggregate and precautionary demand shocks have
different transmission mechanisms. Results for the pass-through from European gasrelated shocks were found to be more pronounced than for oil-related shocks.
Aggregate European demand shocks imply on average stronger GDP jumps in CEE
economies than global demand shocks (except for Poland). Significant drag on growth
in Turkey, Latvia and the Ukraine resulting from gas-specific demand shock was found.
Poland stands out as an economy reacting stronger on global either than European
shocks. An investor exposed to the whole CEE region should overweight Poland each
time he anticipates more positive surprises from global either than European demand.
More than 50% of historical stock returns variance in Russia, Poland and Hungary is due
to gas-related shocks, which is more than in comparable studies for oil-related shocks.
If a diversified equity investor in CE3 stock markets (Poland, Czech, Hungary) faces a
European gas price jump following an unanticipated expansion of aggregate demand in
Europe, he may expect some profits over the next 6-8 months. But if that gas price
jump was due to gas-specific demand shocks, an investor should be aware of potential
losses over 10-12 months horizon.
IV. RESULTS
16
17. MORE FUELS AND MORE SECTORS
Replacement of broad equity indices by sector stock market indices in the fourdimension structural VAR models
This will show explicitly how different sectors react on oil and gas-related shocks, which is usually of much interest
for an equity investor
Expansion of the four-dimension VAR model with another equation for monthly activity
indicator
This will allow to consider local economic activity and stock market reaction on structural shocks jointly
One can consider building comparable models to study the effects of metals-related or
any other commodity-related shocks
For some CEE countries like the Ukraine, for instance, it definitely makes practical sense
V. FURTHER STEPS
17