The document provides an executive summary of a strategic analysis of the medium- and heavy-duty natural gas commercial vehicle market in Europe. Key findings include:
- Natural gas truck and bus penetration is expected to reach 3.4% and 12.7% respectively by 2018.
- Compression ignition LNG technology is poised to dominate the natural gas truck market due to infrastructure support projects like the blue corridor project.
- The natural gas component revenue market is expected to reach €446.1 million by 2018, with LNG and CNG tanks emerging as top revenue generators.
Heavy-Duty Natural Gas Vehicle Roadmap September 2014CALSTART
Heavy-Duty Natural Gas Vehicle Roadmap September 2014 created by the California High-Efficiency Advanced Truck Research Center (CalHEAT) found NG a Significant Enabler for California and the SoCalGas region to enable a reduction in the use of petroleum as well as reduce criteria emissions in heavy duty vehicles
Global Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Transmission StudySilpa Paul
Better fuel economy, narrowing price difference with Manual Transmission (due to improving economies of scale) alongside exacerbating skilled driver shortage and increasing level of automated driving across developed economies are expediting the adoption of electronically controlled transmissions: Automated Manual Transmissions (AMTs) and Automatic Transmissions (ATs). This research service offers an outlook of the global medium- and heavy-duty commercial truck transmissions market for the period 2015–2025. The study also offers actionable information and forecasts of the key trends and metrics that are likely to influence the growth and development of the global medium- and heavy- duty commercial truck transmission systems market.
Heavy-Duty Natural Gas Vehicle Roadmap September 2014CALSTART
Heavy-Duty Natural Gas Vehicle Roadmap September 2014 created by the California High-Efficiency Advanced Truck Research Center (CalHEAT) found NG a Significant Enabler for California and the SoCalGas region to enable a reduction in the use of petroleum as well as reduce criteria emissions in heavy duty vehicles
Global Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Transmission StudySilpa Paul
Better fuel economy, narrowing price difference with Manual Transmission (due to improving economies of scale) alongside exacerbating skilled driver shortage and increasing level of automated driving across developed economies are expediting the adoption of electronically controlled transmissions: Automated Manual Transmissions (AMTs) and Automatic Transmissions (ATs). This research service offers an outlook of the global medium- and heavy-duty commercial truck transmissions market for the period 2015–2025. The study also offers actionable information and forecasts of the key trends and metrics that are likely to influence the growth and development of the global medium- and heavy- duty commercial truck transmission systems market.
North American Truck (Class 8) Engines are ShrinkingSandeep Kar
A brief summary of key takeaways from Frost & Sullivan's research aimed at engine downsizing strategies of major North American Class 8 truck manufacturers and its impact on the commercial vehicle industry
Westport engineers the world's most advanced natural gas engines and vehicles. Leveraging a capital efficient business model to develop and commercialize natural gas engines in key vertical markets, Westport has grown substantially in revenue and stature.
2012 US Heavy Duty Truck Fleet Managers' Desirability and Willingness to Pay ...Sandeep Kar
This is a brief summary of Frost & Sullivan's voice of customer research aimed at interpreting the familiarity and desirability to pay for advanced heavy truck technologies. This survey was in field in 2012.
View the video narrated version at: http://www.westport.com/company/media/presentations/2013-agm
Westport CEO David Demers presents a recap of Westport's 2013 fiscal year, an overview of the macro perspective in the natural gas for transportation industry, Westport technologies that bridge the gap between energy industry and the transportation industry, a roadmap of the future ahead, and much more.
Eight Transformational Trends Influencing the Global Trucking Industry’s Grow...Silpa Paul
Technological, demographic, environmental, and geopolitical shifts are altering the commercial truck market globally. Integration of digital technologies primarily for resource management and total cost optimization will result in the evolution of truck technology from basic telematics services to advanced traffic modeling, weather prediction, and social media analytics. Autonomous driving technologies are gaining traction and are expected to garner significant OEM support to reach scalability by 2025, when level 3 autonomous trucks are expected to reach the market. Significant portion of global truck market growth in the next decade will come from Next 11, ASEAN, Middle East, and African countries. Africa’s truck market will be buoyed by the establishment of the African corridor, expansion of free trade agreements within the continent, and better utilization of natural resources. In conjunction with the growth of emerging markets, value trucks will be the fastest- growing segment in the next decade — nearly tripling in volume to account for 31% of total truck sales globally by 2025. Demand for this segment will be driven by fleet modernization efforts in China and India, which are the dominant low-cost truck markets. More global platforms are expected as global OEMs look to expand in Asian markets.
Pascal will reveal the opportunities for unprecedented growth in Automotive Catalysts, with increasingly stringent emission norms driving massive value uptick in light duty vehicles and heavy duty diesel.
4th Energy Wave Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Annual Review, 2016Kerry-Ann Adamson
The 4th Energy Wave Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Annual Review is the continuation of the Fuel Cell Annual Review report from Fuel Cell Today, started by Dr. Kerry-Ann Adamson and her team in 2008. The dataset combines both historical data from FCT and fresh data collected and collated by 4th Energy Wave.
This year’s Review marks the 9th such annual publication, and the 3rd from the independent analyst and strategist house 4th Energy Wave.
The Review focuses on quantifying and discussing trends and opportunities in the fuel cell, and increasingly hydrogen, sectors. The outlook is global, and covers all the different markets which fuel cells are increasingly penetrating.
The Review is an independent publication.
Experience Mazda Zoom Zoom Lifestyle and Culture by Visiting and joining the Official Mazda Community at http://www.MazdaCommunity.org for additional insight into the Zoom Zoom Lifestyle and special offers for Mazda Community Members.
Report: Mind the Gap 2015 – Closing the chasm between test and real-world car...Nicola Barozzi 🚘✔
The system of testing cars to measure fuel economy and CO2 emissions is utterly discredited. This report analyses the gap between test results and real-world performance and finds that it has become a chasm, increasing from 8% in 2001 to 31% in 2012 and 40% in 2014. Without action this gap will grow to nearly 50% by 2020.
Mercedes cars have the biggest average gap between test and real-world performance, with real-world fuel consumption exceeding test results by nearly half. None of the improvement in emissions measured in tests of Opel/Vauxhall cars since 2008 has delivered improvement on the road, and their real-world fuel economy is actually getting worse. Just a fifth of the apparent improvement in emissions from the launch of the Mark 7 VW Golf (Europe’s best-selling car) have been achieved on the road.
This report definitively shows current systems for vehicle testing of fuel economy and CO2 emissions don’t work and the proposed introduction of the new WLTP test seems likely to deliver limited and only temporary improvements. Systematic changes to the way cars are tested, regulated and taxed are needed to ensure cars are decarbonised on the road and not just in laboratories. The technologies to reduce emissions are available – what is missing is a robust policy framework to ensure these are delivered.
Source: European Federation for Transport and Environment AISBL
Market Research Report : Electric Vehicles Market in China 2010Netscribes, Inc.
For the complete report, get in touch with us at : info@netscribes.com
The electric vehicles market which includes battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles has been pegged at USD 1800 mn in 2008. Traditional players of automobile from North America are finding great opportunity in the electric vehicle market in China. Startup companies, whether domestic or foreign players, are looking to invest in the market. Vehicles are powered by lithium-ion batteries which have quite a high power-to-weight ratio and hence are considered to be the best battery for an automotive application. Government, along with domestic players, is looking for lithium-ore mines which show strong growth opportunity for EV market. Government initiatives and subsidies coupled with localization of electric vehicles and its parts manufacturers in China will drive the electric vehicle market in China.
The report begins with an introduction of electric vehicles market indicating different type of electric vehicles and its power sources. It provides information regarding the Chinese automobile market including an overview, automotive sales and share of electric vehicles in 2012 and 2030. This is following by an overview of the electric vehicles market in China and includes its market size and growth, and segmentation. It further talks about advantages and challenges behind different types of electric vehicles namely battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles.
It discusses the initiatives taken by the government, indicating the fund allocated for development of electric vehicles, governments target for the number of EV developed and subsidies for different types of vehicles.
An analysis of drivers explain factors contributing to the growth of electric vehicles market including depleting and dependency on oil reserves, development of battery manufacturers, development of charging stations, development of smart grid, first time car buyer and population advantage. The key challenges identified include high cost of electric vehicles, lack of awareness about energy efficient vehicles and performance shortcomings.
Competition section provides brief profiles of major domestic and foreign players in the market. The section contains a snapshot of their corporation, financial performance and business highlights, providing an insight into the existing competitive scenario.
North American Truck (Class 8) Engines are ShrinkingSandeep Kar
A brief summary of key takeaways from Frost & Sullivan's research aimed at engine downsizing strategies of major North American Class 8 truck manufacturers and its impact on the commercial vehicle industry
Westport engineers the world's most advanced natural gas engines and vehicles. Leveraging a capital efficient business model to develop and commercialize natural gas engines in key vertical markets, Westport has grown substantially in revenue and stature.
2012 US Heavy Duty Truck Fleet Managers' Desirability and Willingness to Pay ...Sandeep Kar
This is a brief summary of Frost & Sullivan's voice of customer research aimed at interpreting the familiarity and desirability to pay for advanced heavy truck technologies. This survey was in field in 2012.
View the video narrated version at: http://www.westport.com/company/media/presentations/2013-agm
Westport CEO David Demers presents a recap of Westport's 2013 fiscal year, an overview of the macro perspective in the natural gas for transportation industry, Westport technologies that bridge the gap between energy industry and the transportation industry, a roadmap of the future ahead, and much more.
Eight Transformational Trends Influencing the Global Trucking Industry’s Grow...Silpa Paul
Technological, demographic, environmental, and geopolitical shifts are altering the commercial truck market globally. Integration of digital technologies primarily for resource management and total cost optimization will result in the evolution of truck technology from basic telematics services to advanced traffic modeling, weather prediction, and social media analytics. Autonomous driving technologies are gaining traction and are expected to garner significant OEM support to reach scalability by 2025, when level 3 autonomous trucks are expected to reach the market. Significant portion of global truck market growth in the next decade will come from Next 11, ASEAN, Middle East, and African countries. Africa’s truck market will be buoyed by the establishment of the African corridor, expansion of free trade agreements within the continent, and better utilization of natural resources. In conjunction with the growth of emerging markets, value trucks will be the fastest- growing segment in the next decade — nearly tripling in volume to account for 31% of total truck sales globally by 2025. Demand for this segment will be driven by fleet modernization efforts in China and India, which are the dominant low-cost truck markets. More global platforms are expected as global OEMs look to expand in Asian markets.
Pascal will reveal the opportunities for unprecedented growth in Automotive Catalysts, with increasingly stringent emission norms driving massive value uptick in light duty vehicles and heavy duty diesel.
4th Energy Wave Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Annual Review, 2016Kerry-Ann Adamson
The 4th Energy Wave Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Annual Review is the continuation of the Fuel Cell Annual Review report from Fuel Cell Today, started by Dr. Kerry-Ann Adamson and her team in 2008. The dataset combines both historical data from FCT and fresh data collected and collated by 4th Energy Wave.
This year’s Review marks the 9th such annual publication, and the 3rd from the independent analyst and strategist house 4th Energy Wave.
The Review focuses on quantifying and discussing trends and opportunities in the fuel cell, and increasingly hydrogen, sectors. The outlook is global, and covers all the different markets which fuel cells are increasingly penetrating.
The Review is an independent publication.
Experience Mazda Zoom Zoom Lifestyle and Culture by Visiting and joining the Official Mazda Community at http://www.MazdaCommunity.org for additional insight into the Zoom Zoom Lifestyle and special offers for Mazda Community Members.
Report: Mind the Gap 2015 – Closing the chasm between test and real-world car...Nicola Barozzi 🚘✔
The system of testing cars to measure fuel economy and CO2 emissions is utterly discredited. This report analyses the gap between test results and real-world performance and finds that it has become a chasm, increasing from 8% in 2001 to 31% in 2012 and 40% in 2014. Without action this gap will grow to nearly 50% by 2020.
Mercedes cars have the biggest average gap between test and real-world performance, with real-world fuel consumption exceeding test results by nearly half. None of the improvement in emissions measured in tests of Opel/Vauxhall cars since 2008 has delivered improvement on the road, and their real-world fuel economy is actually getting worse. Just a fifth of the apparent improvement in emissions from the launch of the Mark 7 VW Golf (Europe’s best-selling car) have been achieved on the road.
This report definitively shows current systems for vehicle testing of fuel economy and CO2 emissions don’t work and the proposed introduction of the new WLTP test seems likely to deliver limited and only temporary improvements. Systematic changes to the way cars are tested, regulated and taxed are needed to ensure cars are decarbonised on the road and not just in laboratories. The technologies to reduce emissions are available – what is missing is a robust policy framework to ensure these are delivered.
Source: European Federation for Transport and Environment AISBL
Market Research Report : Electric Vehicles Market in China 2010Netscribes, Inc.
For the complete report, get in touch with us at : info@netscribes.com
The electric vehicles market which includes battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles has been pegged at USD 1800 mn in 2008. Traditional players of automobile from North America are finding great opportunity in the electric vehicle market in China. Startup companies, whether domestic or foreign players, are looking to invest in the market. Vehicles are powered by lithium-ion batteries which have quite a high power-to-weight ratio and hence are considered to be the best battery for an automotive application. Government, along with domestic players, is looking for lithium-ore mines which show strong growth opportunity for EV market. Government initiatives and subsidies coupled with localization of electric vehicles and its parts manufacturers in China will drive the electric vehicle market in China.
The report begins with an introduction of electric vehicles market indicating different type of electric vehicles and its power sources. It provides information regarding the Chinese automobile market including an overview, automotive sales and share of electric vehicles in 2012 and 2030. This is following by an overview of the electric vehicles market in China and includes its market size and growth, and segmentation. It further talks about advantages and challenges behind different types of electric vehicles namely battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles.
It discusses the initiatives taken by the government, indicating the fund allocated for development of electric vehicles, governments target for the number of EV developed and subsidies for different types of vehicles.
An analysis of drivers explain factors contributing to the growth of electric vehicles market including depleting and dependency on oil reserves, development of battery manufacturers, development of charging stations, development of smart grid, first time car buyer and population advantage. The key challenges identified include high cost of electric vehicles, lack of awareness about energy efficient vehicles and performance shortcomings.
Competition section provides brief profiles of major domestic and foreign players in the market. The section contains a snapshot of their corporation, financial performance and business highlights, providing an insight into the existing competitive scenario.
Power Electronics in Electric and Hybrid Vehicles 2014 Report by Yole Develo...Yole Developpement
A $16B market by 2023, a change of business model, and significant technical changes: how will electric and hybrid vehicles change the power electronics industry?
EV/HEV MARKET: A BURGEONING MARKET FULL OF PROMISES AND UNCERTAINTIES
Electric and hybrid vehicles have been presented as a huge market over the last few years, but in 2013 only 100K 100% electric vehicles were sold, and only 2M EV/HEV cars in total. For 2014, technological and architectural upgrades have been made and are ready to deploy, but the most important need is still to convince the end-user to change their habits and transition to an EV/HEV.
Charging infrastructure development, battery cost reduction and power density increase are pushing the EV/HEV market forward. Moreover, as the market grows and the technology develops, the price difference between EV/HEV vehicles and gas-powered vehicles will progressively shrink, thus further accelerating EV/HEV market advancement. Also, governmental restrictions on CO2 output are becoming increasingly aggressive worldwide (58mpg for the United States in 2025, and in 2020 for Europe). For all of these reasons, we expect end-users to be swayed by electric energy’s low cost and governmental incentives, making the EV/HEV market very attractive. In this report you will find a detailed analysis of markets by type, as well as an analysis of the positive and negative trends impacting the EV/HEV market.
More information on that report at http://www.i-micronews.com/power-electronics-report/product/power-electronics-in-electric-and-hybrid-vehicles-launch-offer.html
Kurt will demonstrate how Umicore is widening the gap in xEV battery materials by harnessing product and process technology leadership and its unique position in the supply chain.
A Compelling Case for CNG Vehicles
Natural Gas Vehicle Applications Include:
-Airport taxi & shuttle serivices
-Beverage & regional distribution
-Municipal services & maintenance
-Transit & school bus
& several others
The Methaforming technology allows oil refiners and gasoline blenders to make Euro-4 and -5 compliant
high octane gasoline at 1/3 of the current level of costs and greenhouse gas emissions. The technology is
proven with a recent launch of a commercial unit and more than 7 000 hours of lab plant tests. A top-tier
engineering company hired by a large refiner confirmed our claims, estimated profitability of Methaforming
as the highest of 12 technology options that were studied, with a large advantage over the second best
alternative. Customer interest from Canada, China, a few EU countries, India, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Russia,
Ukraine, USA, Uzbekistan. After the first 1.5 years of marketing (as of July 2017), 29 units in pipeline, incl.
for sophisticated large and mid-size Western refiners. Looking to raise $5-6m, have indications of interest
for $4m of that amount.
Bearings and Lubricants for On-Highway Vehicle ElectrificationChristopherMarks22
An introduction of bearing concepts will be discussed as a lead-in to the application and use of bearings in electric vehicles. Market trends and key influences such as social, regulatory, and commercial factors are driving the consumer market toward the adoption of electric vehicles. Electric vehicle drivetrain designs vary significantly from one manufacturer to another and the impact of the electrification strategy on a vehicle’s architecture highly depends on where an electric motor is integrated into the drivetrain. Consequently, design architecture, integration points, and challenging application drivers will impact bearing selection and the corresponding performance. Timken can offer valuable solutions to this emerging market leveraging technologies in the form of power dense, fuel efficient bearing solutions. Further details will be discussed on this bearing solution and the advantage it offers.
CEOs' Perspectives on Growth, Innovation, and LeadershipSandeep Kar
The global economy is in a period of intense disruption, collapse and transformation. The Digital tsunami is creating upheaval across organizational ecosystems. Changing stakeholder expectations are challenging CEOs to accelerate and better manage innovation. The rising relevance of services-based business models is upsetting traditional products-based approaches. Frost & Sullivan’s CEOs Perspectives on Growth, Innovation, and Leadership—a survey of over 300 business leaders—reveals how organizations are strategizing to maintain resilient growth amidst such churn.
Impact of Urban Logistics of Commercial Vehicles Sandeep Kar
This presentation made by Sandeep Kar, Global Director, Frost & Sullivan shows the impact of urbanization and urban logistics on commercial vehicle design philosophies
Sandeep will share the need for recalibrating growth strategies and leveraging advanced truck technologies in a flat-world business ecosystem as we embrace a new decade.
The green revolution sweeping the commercial vehicle market is creating new revenue streams for truck industry participants- see how you can benefit from it.
Why Is Your BMW X3 Hood Not Responding To Release CommandsDart Auto
Experiencing difficulty opening your BMW X3's hood? This guide explores potential issues like mechanical obstruction, hood release mechanism failure, electrical problems, and emergency release malfunctions. Troubleshooting tips include basic checks, clearing obstructions, applying pressure, and using the emergency release.
"Trans Failsafe Prog" on your BMW X5 indicates potential transmission issues requiring immediate action. This safety feature activates in response to abnormalities like low fluid levels, leaks, faulty sensors, electrical or mechanical failures, and overheating.
5 Warning Signs Your BMW's Intelligent Battery Sensor Needs AttentionBertini's German Motors
IBS monitors and manages your BMW’s battery performance. If it malfunctions, you will have to deal with an array of electrical issues in your vehicle. Recognize warning signs like dimming headlights, frequent battery replacements, and electrical malfunctions to address potential IBS issues promptly.
What Exactly Is The Common Rail Direct Injection System & How Does It WorkMotor Cars International
Learn about Common Rail Direct Injection (CRDi) - the revolutionary technology that has made diesel engines more efficient. Explore its workings, advantages like enhanced fuel efficiency and increased power output, along with drawbacks such as complexity and higher initial cost. Compare CRDi with traditional diesel engines and discover why it's the preferred choice for modern engines.
In this presentation, we have discussed a very important feature of BMW X5 cars… the Comfort Access. Things that can significantly limit its functionality. And things that you can try to restore the functionality of such a convenient feature of your vehicle.
Ever been troubled by the blinking sign and didn’t know what to do?
Here’s a handy guide to dashboard symbols so that you’ll never be confused again!
Save them for later and save the trouble!
Things to remember while upgrading the brakes of your carjennifermiller8137
Upgrading the brakes of your car? Keep these things in mind before doing so. Additionally, start using an OBD 2 GPS tracker so that you never miss a vehicle maintenance appointment. On top of this, a car GPS tracker will also let you master good driving habits that will let you increase the operational life of your car’s brakes.
What Does the PARKTRONIC Inoperative, See Owner's Manual Message Mean for You...Autohaus Service and Sales
Learn what "PARKTRONIC Inoperative, See Owner's Manual" means for your Mercedes-Benz. This message indicates a malfunction in the parking assistance system, potentially due to sensor issues or electrical faults. Prompt attention is crucial to ensure safety and functionality. Follow steps outlined for diagnosis and repair in the owner's manual.
𝘼𝙣𝙩𝙞𝙦𝙪𝙚 𝙋𝙡𝙖𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙘 𝙏𝙧𝙖𝙙𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙞𝙨 𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙮 𝙛𝙖𝙢𝙤𝙪𝙨 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙢𝙖𝙣𝙪𝙛𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙞𝙧 𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙙𝙪𝙘𝙩𝙨. 𝙒𝙚 𝙝𝙖𝙫𝙚 𝙖𝙡𝙡 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙥𝙡𝙖𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙘 𝙜𝙧𝙖𝙣𝙪𝙡𝙚𝙨 𝙪𝙨𝙚𝙙 𝙞𝙣 𝙖𝙪𝙩𝙤𝙢𝙤𝙩𝙞𝙫𝙚 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙖𝙪𝙩𝙤 𝙥𝙖𝙧𝙩𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙖𝙡𝙡 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙛𝙖𝙢𝙤𝙪𝙨 𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙥𝙖𝙣𝙞𝙚𝙨 𝙗𝙪𝙮 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙜𝙧𝙖𝙣𝙪𝙡𝙚𝙨 𝙛𝙧𝙤𝙢 𝙪𝙨.
Over the 10 years, we have gained a strong foothold in the market due to our range's high quality, competitive prices, and time-lined delivery schedules.
Fleet management these days is next to impossible without connected vehicle solutions. Why? Well, fleet trackers and accompanying connected vehicle management solutions tend to offer quite a few hard-to-ignore benefits to fleet managers and businesses alike. Let’s check them out!
Symptoms like intermittent starting and key recognition errors signal potential problems with your Mercedes’ EIS. Use diagnostic steps like error code checks and spare key tests. Professional diagnosis and solutions like EIS replacement ensure safe driving. Consult a qualified technician for accurate diagnosis and repair.
Wondering if Your Mercedes EIS is at Fault Here’s How to Tell
European Medium-Heavy Duty Natural Gas Truck and Bus Market
1. Strategic Analysis of the Medium- to Heavy-duty Natural
Gas Commercial Vehicle Market in Europe
Compression Ignition LNG Technology Poised to Deliver Highest Volume Contribution
Brief Summary
Few Slides from
Complete Study on This
Topic
M8D2-18
January 2013
2. Research Team
Lead Analyst
Contributing Analyst
Saideep Sudhakar
Wallace Lau
Research Analyst, Automotive &
Transportation
+1.416.490.0813
Consulting Analyst
Automotive and Transportation
91.44.6681.4125
saideeps@frost.com
Wallace.lau@frost.com
Research Director
Strategic Review Committee Leader
Sandeep Kar
Franck Leveque
Vice President, Automotive &
Transportation
Research Director, Commercial Vehicles
Automotive and Transportation
1.416.490.7796
+49 (0) 697703321
sandeep.kar@frost.com
Franck.leveque@frost.com
M8D2-18
2
3. Contents
Section
Slide Numbers
Executive Summary
4
Research Objective, Scope, Methodology, and Background
16
Definitions/Segmentation
22
Market Overview
26
Mega Trends and Industry Convergence Implications
41
Total Market
-
• External Challenges: Drivers and Restraints
43
• Forecasts and Trends
52
• Component Pricing and Revenue Forecasts
67
• Market Share and Competitive Analysis
79
Truck OEM Profiles
89
Bus OEM Profiles
97
Supplier Profile
106
Conclusions and Future Outlook
114
Appendix
120
M8D2-18
3
5. Executive Summary—Key Findings
1
Natural gas truck and bus penetration is expected to reach 3.4% and 12.7% respectively by 2018.
2
Compression Ignition (CI) engines powered by high pressure direct injection (HPDI) and dual fuel
technology will provide the necessary impetus for the natural gas (NG) commercial vehicle(CV)
market.
3
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) technology is expected to dominate the NG truck market owing to the
infrastructure support provided by projects such as the blue corridor project across freight
corridors in Europe.
4
Shift from oil linked to spot pricing of natural gas will reduce the price of natural gas and drive the
natural gas vehicle adoption
5
NG component revenue market is expected to reach €446.1 million by 2018. LNG and
compressed natural gas (CNG) tanks are set to emerge as top revenue generator in the
components market.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
M8D2-18
5
6. Executive Summary—Market Engineering Measurements
MD and HD Natural Gas CV Market: Europe, 2011
Market Overview
Component
Market
Revenues
Market Stage
Nascent
€71.6 M
31%
(CAGR)
€446.1 M
2,750
(2011)
Compound
Annual Growth
Rate
Component Market
Size at End of
Forecast Period
Market
Units/Volume
(2011)
Price Sensitivity
(2018)
Number of
Competitors
<10
8
(Scale of 1 to 10, Low to
High)
(active market competitors in
base year)
For a tabular version click here.
Decreasing
Stable
Increasing
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan
M8D2-18
6
7. Executive Summary—Strategic Fact Sheet
Natural gas penetration in the European MD and HD natural gas CV market will reach 3.8%, and component
revenue is expected to grow at a 29.8% CAGR.
MD and HD Natural Gas CV Market: Natural Gas CV
Penetration Forecast, Europe, 2011 and 2018
MD and HD Natural Gas CV Market: Compound Revenue
Forecast , Europe, 2011 and 2018
500.0
472,000
LNG
404,452
Units
Natural Gas CV
Penetration
18,200
3.8 %
2,750
0.7 %
Revenue (€ Million)
Total Production
400.0
300.0
CAGR
29.8%
200.0
€71.6 M
100.0
2011
2018
2018
MD and HD Natural Gas CV Market : OEM Growth Potential,
Europe, 2011–2018
Growth
OEM
Characteristics
Potential
Broad product line from 3.5 tons to 26 tons
Strong presence in refuse market and early
mover in distribution market
Early mover in dual fuel platform through
Volvo
technology partnerships
Wide experience in manufacture of natural
MAN
gas engine and leader in bus segment
Wide experience in manufacture of natural
Scania
gas engine.
Daimler
High
M8D2-18
€446.1 M
0.0
2011
IVECO
CNG
Low
MD and HD Natural Gas CV Market:
Key Takeaways, Europe, 2011
• IVECO’s broad product line and early mover
advantage will be critical for market share
growth in the truck segment.
• MAN is expected to lead the bus segment.
• The LNG component market will experience
a CAGR of 75.4% due to increasing LNG
infrastructure and wider adoption among
fleets.
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan
7
8. Global LNG Prices and Major Natural Gas Trade Patterns
Imports from North America can drastically alter natural gas dynamics in Europe.
MD and HD Natural Gas CV Market: NG Trade Patterns and LNG Prices, Global
347.8 MT
UK
$
$9.0
121.7 MT
$
Cove Point
$2.55
$
Belgium
$
$8.85
$
Spain
81.0 MT
110.1 MT
Lake Charles
$
$2.65
115.7 MT
$
$13.60
86.9 MT
79.2 MT
India
Japan
$15.21
$
$2.20
Altamira
$
103.2 MT
$9.64
$15.21
Korea
179.4 MT
$13.61
230.0 MT
$ per million Global LNG
btu
Prices
Major natural gas
trade patterns
• Major NG exporting regions are Russia and Middle East with Europe and United States importing
greatest volumes historically.
• NG production from shale resources has steadily outgrown the demand in NA, resulting in oil companies
turning around to export gas across the Atlantic. US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC)
first approval for LNG exports from the lower 48 states for Cheniere Energy Inc. opens the gateway for
US natural gas producers to take advantage of global price differential.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
M8D2-18
8
9. Shale Gas Reserves in Europe
Significant recoverable reserves are identified in Poland, France, and Norway.
Shale Gas Market: Exploration and Production Overview, Europe, 2012
Shale Gas Reserves in trillion
cubic feet
83
20
20
42
8
187
180
• Significant recoverable reserves have been
found in Poland, France, and Norway
• Due to the small scale/nascent activity, current
regional policies are believed to be adequate
for governing shale gas production in Europe.
Current policies include
o Mining waste directive
o Groundwater directive
o Water framework directive
o Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and
Restriction of Chemicals (REACH)
Prospection / Exploration
Moratorium on Exploration
No activity on shale gas
Energy Independence
Vast and well- mapped reserves
Drivers
M8D2-18
Bridge to low carbon future since
NG is more efficient and cleaner
fossil fuel
Strict regulatory framework
Unresolved environmental
concerns
High costs to develop resources
Restraints
Source: EIA, Frost & Sullivan
9
10. Executive Summary—Total Trucks Shipped in the MD and HD CV Market
Penetration of non-diesel fueled powertrain technologies in the truck segment to reach over 5% by 2018.
MD and HD Natural Gas CV Market: Truck Unit Shipment Forecast, Europe, 2011 and 2018
449,300 units
2018 OEM Production Powertrain Split
383,552 units
99.7%
0.1%
2.2 %
4.7%
Units in Thousands
0.2%
3.4%
120
100
3.5%
3.3%
0.9%
80
60
1.5%
0.3%
8.8%
1%
2.4%
2.5%
1.8%
0.6%
40
20
97.9%
92%
DAF
Daimler
88.7%
97.5%
97%
95.6%
94.4%
0
2011
IVECO
HEV
NG
MAN
Diesel
Scania
Volvo Group
2018
• Truck production to increase at a compound annual growth rate of 2.3% over the 2011 to 2018 period.
• An EU mandate of 20% green house gas (GHG) reduction by 2020 will drive market for advanced
powertrain technologies.
• IVECO, Daimler, and Volvo are expected to lead the NG adoption in CVs among European OEMs.
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan
M8D2-18
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11. Executive Summary—Total Bus Market Europe
Advanced powertrain adoption is expected to reach 33% by 2018; the hybrid and natural gas powertrain set
will benefit the most.
MD and HD Natural Gas CV Market: Bus Unit Shipment Forecast, Europe, 2011 and 2018
2018 OEM Production Powertrain Split
12
8.6%
4.9%
Units in Thousands
20,900 units
3.7%
10
22,700 Units
12.1%
8
12.7%
6.7%
6
20.2%
4%
16.2%
6.8%
10.9%
7.4%
4
2
4.1%
12.7%
77.1%
81.7%
80.5%
91.9%
84.2%
67.1%
86.5%
0
Daimler
2011
IVECO
HEV
MAN
Scania
NG
Diesel
Volvo Group
2018
• Medium- and heavy-duty bus production forecast to grow at a 1% CAGR over the 2011 to 2018 period
• Despite slow growth in volumes, NG penetration will reach 12.7% by 2018.
• MAN and IVECO lead the natural gas adoption, while Volvo and Daimler shifting towards hybrid electric
vehicles in addition to showing interest in NG powertrain.
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan
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12. Executive Summary - European Natural Gas Engine’s Power Bandwidth
Higher Power Spark Ignited Engines are Expected to be Launched by OEMs to Cater the Long
Haul Heavy Duty Segment
MD and HD Natural Gas CV Market: Engine Band Width, Europe, 2011
Power (hp)
“We are pretty happy about our LNG trucks. The
only thing is engine power could be increased”—
Senior Transport Consultant, European Fleet
500hp
500
460hp
400
360hp
HDT
HDT
300
330hp
280hp
260 hp
250hp
245hp
Transit Bus
Transit Bus
245hp
MDT
200
MDT
200hp
200hp
180hp
100
2011
2018
Year
2011
2018
•
The engine power bandwidth in medium duty truck is between 180hp to 200hp while that of heavy duty
truck is between 245 hp to 460 hp and transit bus is 260 hp to 330 hp in 2011.
•
Volvo provides 460hp in D13C 12.8 lit engine in truck segment based on dual fuel technology through
partnership with Clean Air Power.
•
Most OEMs in Europe posses captive spark ignition natural gas engine platforms, hence any development
of high power engines will be swiftly applied to truck platforms in the long haul segment. The trend is
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
moving towards increasing engine sizes in medium and heavy duty trucks.
M8D2-18
12
13. Executive Summary—Total NG CV OEM Transmission Market
Automatic Transmission Plays a Major Role in Refuse and Bus Market with SI Engines while
Manual Transmission is Important in the Cost Sensitive Distribution Market.
MD and HD Natural Gas CV Market: Duty Cycle Transmission Percentage Forecast, Europe, 2011
100.0
1-5%
10-15%
1-5%
80.0
90-95%
85-90%
60.0
5%
55-60%
40.0
75-80%
20.0
2-5%
30-35%
5-10%
2-5%
0.0
Refuse
20%
Distribution
Manual
Automated Manual
LongHaul
Automatic
Bus
90%
0-5%
• Duty cycle such as refuse and construction require higher torque which is facilitated by means of
automatic transmission in spark ignited engines.
• Dual fuel engines being similar to CI engines generally have higher torque capacity, hence automated
manual transmission provides lower cost alternative to automatic transmission in long haul segment.
“Price is important, but we look at the overall lifecycle cost of the vehicle, which
is lower in case of automatic transmission”— Fleet Manager, European Fleet
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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14. Executive Summary—Technology Roadmap
On-board natural gas tanks are experiencing new compositions of materials and designs, and new CI engine
architectures are now in focus among OEMs.
MD and HD Natural Gas CV Market: Technology and Product Roadmap, Europe, 2006-2018
Industry Trends
SI
Technology
Vertical integration with OEM
Rich mixture with
EGR
Stoichiometric mixture with cooled E
GR
Lean Burn Mixture
Throttle body injected – SI
Direct injection
Automatic transmission
Transmission
Manual transmission
SCR
CI-HPDI System
Diesel pilot 5–
7%
HPDI – Diesel Pilot 2–3%
Dual fuel 70% diesel substitution
50% diesel substitution
Aftermarket retrofitment
CI-dual-fuel Mode
OEM integration
Direct injection
CNG Tanks
Type IV cylinders
Type III cylinders
Optimized packaging systems
based on OEM platforms
Engine-coolant-driven pressure
release system for fuel pumping
LNG Tanks
HPDI-LNG Tanks
Cryogenic hydraulic pump for delivering high fuel pressure
2006
2010
2014
2018
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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15. Executive Summary—Comparison of Different Technologies
Fuel flexibility, high end power, and torque engine performance is being cited as advantages for the growth of
dual fuel technology.
Dual Fuel Engines
Direct injection NG
NG (Spark Ignited)
Fuel flexibility
Mixture of natural gas and
diesel or 100% diesel
Dedicated NG. Limp
home service mode on
diesel
Dedicated NG
Infrastructure concerns
Not dependent on NG
Infrastructure
Dependent on NG
infrastructure
Dependent on NG
infrastructure
Engine Modifications
No change in base engine
Requires modification to
base engine
Requires modification to
base engine
Engine Performance
Matches diesel power,
torque and efficiency
Power Range: 460 hp
Matches diesel power,
torque, and efficiency
Power Range: 460 hp
Reduced power and
torque
Power range: 200-340
hp
Diesel Substitution
(by energy)
70-90%
> 90%
100%
Source: Clean Air Power, Frost & Sullivan
M8D2-18
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16. Executive Summary—Key Conclusions and Future Outlook
Parameters
Market Status
Competition
Technology
Barriers to enter
European Market
Current
• The potential size of the market is vast and not
fully penetrated (only 950 trucks in a total market
size of approximately 384 thousand trucks).
• Top 4 OEMs control more than 90 per cent of the
truck NG market (Daimler, Volvo, Scania and
IVECO).
Future
• Market to experience strong growth driven by
fuelling infrastructure development across the
continent coupled with tightening emission
regulations.
• Total NG unit shipments to reach 18,200 units
by 2018.
• Competition is expected to intensify across the
forecast period with new participants entering
the market.
• 90% of the natural gas market is controlled by five
• There will be partnerships with NG engine
major OEM’s (MAN, Daimler, Scania, Volvo, and
developers.
IVECO) in buses.
• There are dedicated SI engines which run on
• High power dedicated CI engines and dual
CNG for short haul and refuse applications and
power engines will play a major role.
LNG for long haulage and distribution application.
• Natural gas price is oil linked and there are a few
government incentives promoting the use of
natural gas as a fuel
• Co-ordinated EU policy, similar to the NATGAS
Act, and availability of cheap natural gas from
America will promote the advocacy of natural
gas.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
M8D2-18
16
17. The Last Word—Three Big Predictions
1
By 2018, 3.8% of all medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles manufactured
in Western Europe will feature natural gas powertrains. The installation rate in the
medium- and heavy-duty truck market will reach 3.4%, while medium- and heavyduty buses will reach 12.7%.
2
A €8.3/MMBtu price level for natural gas in Europe is expected in 2018 by
Frost & Sullivan. Given current pricing levels and forecasted prices; and LNG and
CNG offering €0.4/DGE cost advantage over diesel fastest payback is expected
for LNG in long-haul trucking and CNG in short-haul bus routes.
3
By 2018, 90% of all natural gas powered buses manufactured in that year will
feature spark ignited technology, while 80% of CNG trucks will feature spark
ignition and 60% of LNG trucks will feature compression ignition technology.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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deliverables is its Market Engineering
studies. They are based our
proprietary Market Engineering
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M8D2-18
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