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Impact Evaluation

 Manuela De Allegri
  Malabika Sarker
Study design
• Explanatory controlled before and after design
  with multiple post-test measurements

• Controlled before and after design with multiple
  post-test measurements: collect information
  quantitatively on selected indicators before and
  after the intervention is launched in both
  intervention & control areas

• Explanatory: qualitative element to explain
  quantitative results
Explanatory controlled before & after
                                     Both in intervention & in control areas


QUAN data             QUAN data             QUAN data             QUAN data
collection            collection            collection            collection


         Qual data             Qual data             Qual data             Qual data
         collection            collection            collection            collection



      Year 0                Year 1                Year 2                Year 3




                  bHIP                  bHIP
Difference in difference models
                                                Difference-in-Difference with parallel time-trend
                                           4
                                                                                             3,5
                                          3,5
VISTS PER CAPITA




                                           3
                                                                           2,5
                   # of hospital visits




                                          2,5
                                                                                             2
                                           2
                                                         1,5               1,5
                                          1,5
                                                          1
                                           1

                                          0,5

                                           0
                                                         t=0                                t=1


                                                                        TIME
Design option 1
         Enroll in study all 16 Upazila 2013-2018




Year 0
Design option 1
         Enroll in study all 16 Upazila 2013-2018




Year 0                    Year 1
Design option 1
         Enroll in study all 16 Upazila 2013-2018




Year 0                    Year 1                    Year 5
Design option 2
    Enroll in study 4 2013-14 intervention Upazilas & additional 4 controls




Year 0         Year 1         Year 2         Year 3        Year 4         Year 5
Choosing the best design
16 Upazilas design:     8 Upazilas design:
• The more clusters,    • Less powerful
  the better
                        • Cannot address all
• Can address all
                          concerns central to
  concerns central to
  bHIP implementation     bHIP implementation
• High-risk design if   • Low-risk design even
  something goes          if implementation is
  wrong                   scaled down
Theory of change
                                                         Economic
                  Quality &
                                                        development
               appropriateness
                   of care
 Providers’
motivation &
performance     Preventive            Health
                   care              outcomes
                utilization
                (including
                screening)
                                                            Loan
                                                         repayment


 bHIP          Curative care                           Entrepreneurial
                utilization                             investments
                                         Income                           Poverty
                                      stabilization/                     reduction
                                          asset
                                       protection
                Household                                Child labor
                   OOP
                 spending
                                                        Investments
                                                        in education
Help needed

• Defining the design

• Selecting indicators to match TOC and relevant
  tools for data collection

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Impact evaluation

  • 1. Impact Evaluation Manuela De Allegri Malabika Sarker
  • 2. Study design • Explanatory controlled before and after design with multiple post-test measurements • Controlled before and after design with multiple post-test measurements: collect information quantitatively on selected indicators before and after the intervention is launched in both intervention & control areas • Explanatory: qualitative element to explain quantitative results
  • 3. Explanatory controlled before & after Both in intervention & in control areas QUAN data QUAN data QUAN data QUAN data collection collection collection collection Qual data Qual data Qual data Qual data collection collection collection collection Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 bHIP bHIP
  • 4. Difference in difference models Difference-in-Difference with parallel time-trend 4 3,5 3,5 VISTS PER CAPITA 3 2,5 # of hospital visits 2,5 2 2 1,5 1,5 1,5 1 1 0,5 0 t=0 t=1 TIME
  • 5. Design option 1 Enroll in study all 16 Upazila 2013-2018 Year 0
  • 6. Design option 1 Enroll in study all 16 Upazila 2013-2018 Year 0 Year 1
  • 7. Design option 1 Enroll in study all 16 Upazila 2013-2018 Year 0 Year 1 Year 5
  • 8. Design option 2 Enroll in study 4 2013-14 intervention Upazilas & additional 4 controls Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
  • 9. Choosing the best design 16 Upazilas design: 8 Upazilas design: • The more clusters, • Less powerful the better • Cannot address all • Can address all concerns central to concerns central to bHIP implementation bHIP implementation • High-risk design if • Low-risk design even something goes if implementation is wrong scaled down
  • 10. Theory of change Economic Quality & development appropriateness of care Providers’ motivation & performance Preventive Health care outcomes utilization (including screening) Loan repayment bHIP Curative care Entrepreneurial utilization investments Income Poverty stabilization/ reduction asset protection Household Child labor OOP spending Investments in education
  • 11. Help needed • Defining the design • Selecting indicators to match TOC and relevant tools for data collection