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THE APPLICATIONS OF ICE THROW MODELLING
TO RISK ASSESSMENT AND PLANNING IN COLD
CLIMATES
DR GAIL HUTTON CSTAT CSCI
SENIOR STATISTICAL ANALYST, RES GROUP

13 FEBRUARY 2013




                                          1
INTRODUCTION


 • If ice is released when turbine blades are in motion then ice is thrown
 • For purposes of risk assessment RES has been developing a
   physical/statistical model of ice throw trajectories
 • This takes into account
       – a physical model of the trajectory of an ice fragment
       – Stochastic/statistical models of wind characteristics on-site
       – Turbine characteristics
       – Hub height
 • Used to produce a risk density map
 • This could have implications for
       – Public safety
       – Planning/Layout
       – Infrastructure




1. Why/How?                                                                  2
APPLICATIONS TO RES SITES – SO FAR



 • Site 1
       – Assessment of the risk of ice strike to a public road
       – Assessment of the engineering requirements of the roof of a viewing tower
         located on-site close to a small turbine


 • Site 2
       – Assessment of the risk of ice strike to overhead power lines


 • Site 3 - Havsnäs
       – Assessment of the risk of ice strike on snowmobile tracks




1. Why/How?                                                                          3
SITE 1– ICE STRIKE ON A PUBLIC ROAD
                N




                                15 %

                         10 %

                    5%

     W                                 E
                                                  Pr(Ice strikes road|Ice is thrown)
                                                               = 3.74E-4

                S




                 1.5(D+H)=292.5 m
         Max. throw from simulation  220 m
                                              Expected strikes on road per year  2




                                              Expected # strikes on transport/year
                                                            = 4.2E-4

                                                1 strike on a passing vehicle per
                                                           2,400 years




2. Examples                                                                            4
SITE 3 – ICE STRIKE ON SNOWMOBILE TRACKS


 HAVSNAS - RESULTS
             1.5(D+H)=277.5 m
    Max. throw from simulation  230 m



                                             Areas of overlap of the risk
                                           contours with the snowmobile
                                                  tracks are small




                                            Expected # ice fragments on
                                             snowmobile tracks/yr = 6




                                              Expect 1 ice strike on a
                                            snowmobile once every 880
                                                       years


                                                                            5
VALIDATION OF ICE THROW MODEL


  • Observations of ice throw and locations of impact made at two turbines
    on a Swedish site in December 2012/January 2013

        – Does the ice land in the
        positions predicted by the model?

        – How does observed maximum
        throw distance compare to
        modelled throw distance?




3. Validation                                                                6
DAY 1 – 27TH DECEMBER 2012




3. Validation                  7
DAY 2 – 8TH JANUARY 2013




3. Validation                8
CONCLUSIONS



 • Development of the ice throw simulation model allows us to quantify risk
        – And address public safety/infrastructure/planning issues with more
          confidence


 • Estimates of public safety risk are very small

 • By comparison with the 1.5(D+H) rule of thumb for planning the RES ice
   throw model gives shorter throw distances

 • Model validation by on-site observation gives promising results
        – Will continue to monitor ice throw this Winter




4. Conclusions                                                                 9
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS




 • Thanks to Alan Derrick, Magnus Hopstadius, Lars Persson, Christer Norlén,
   Victor Donnet and Lenton McLendon at RES & the Swedish Energy Agency
   (who part-funded this project)




                               ANY QUESTIONS?




4. Conclusions                                                                 10
11

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Hutton gail

  • 1. THE APPLICATIONS OF ICE THROW MODELLING TO RISK ASSESSMENT AND PLANNING IN COLD CLIMATES DR GAIL HUTTON CSTAT CSCI SENIOR STATISTICAL ANALYST, RES GROUP 13 FEBRUARY 2013 1
  • 2. INTRODUCTION • If ice is released when turbine blades are in motion then ice is thrown • For purposes of risk assessment RES has been developing a physical/statistical model of ice throw trajectories • This takes into account – a physical model of the trajectory of an ice fragment – Stochastic/statistical models of wind characteristics on-site – Turbine characteristics – Hub height • Used to produce a risk density map • This could have implications for – Public safety – Planning/Layout – Infrastructure 1. Why/How? 2
  • 3. APPLICATIONS TO RES SITES – SO FAR • Site 1 – Assessment of the risk of ice strike to a public road – Assessment of the engineering requirements of the roof of a viewing tower located on-site close to a small turbine • Site 2 – Assessment of the risk of ice strike to overhead power lines • Site 3 - Havsnäs – Assessment of the risk of ice strike on snowmobile tracks 1. Why/How? 3
  • 4. SITE 1– ICE STRIKE ON A PUBLIC ROAD N 15 % 10 % 5% W E Pr(Ice strikes road|Ice is thrown) = 3.74E-4 S 1.5(D+H)=292.5 m Max. throw from simulation  220 m Expected strikes on road per year  2 Expected # strikes on transport/year = 4.2E-4 1 strike on a passing vehicle per 2,400 years 2. Examples 4
  • 5. SITE 3 – ICE STRIKE ON SNOWMOBILE TRACKS HAVSNAS - RESULTS 1.5(D+H)=277.5 m Max. throw from simulation  230 m Areas of overlap of the risk contours with the snowmobile tracks are small Expected # ice fragments on snowmobile tracks/yr = 6 Expect 1 ice strike on a snowmobile once every 880 years 5
  • 6. VALIDATION OF ICE THROW MODEL • Observations of ice throw and locations of impact made at two turbines on a Swedish site in December 2012/January 2013 – Does the ice land in the positions predicted by the model? – How does observed maximum throw distance compare to modelled throw distance? 3. Validation 6
  • 7. DAY 1 – 27TH DECEMBER 2012 3. Validation 7
  • 8. DAY 2 – 8TH JANUARY 2013 3. Validation 8
  • 9. CONCLUSIONS • Development of the ice throw simulation model allows us to quantify risk – And address public safety/infrastructure/planning issues with more confidence • Estimates of public safety risk are very small • By comparison with the 1.5(D+H) rule of thumb for planning the RES ice throw model gives shorter throw distances • Model validation by on-site observation gives promising results – Will continue to monitor ice throw this Winter 4. Conclusions 9
  • 10. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS • Thanks to Alan Derrick, Magnus Hopstadius, Lars Persson, Christer Norlén, Victor Donnet and Lenton McLendon at RES & the Swedish Energy Agency (who part-funded this project) ANY QUESTIONS? 4. Conclusions 10
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