Fuzzy thinking and logical inconsistency is not the same as differences of opinion, or even differences in fact. The level of fuzziness and logical inconsistency usually follows the level of maturity of the speaker.

1. This post wasrepublishedto HerdingCats at 2:46:08 PM8/27/2009
Beyond the Novice and the Advanced Beginner
I’ve beenchattingbackand forthon email,blogs,andforumsaroundseveral thingsof interesttome
thisweek.Some conversationswerefruitful some were not.These topicsinclude:EarnedValue,Project
Management,andthe competenciesneededtosuccessfullymanage project.
On the wayhome from MontgomeryAlabamaandthe AirForce IT Conference atMaxwell AirForce
Base,I come to understandthathumanshave a proclivityforfuzzythinkingandlogical inconsistency.
Thisshouldcome as no surprise whenreadingblogsandforummessagesonalmostanytopic.The topic
of earnedvalue,competencymeasurementof projectmanagers,successrates of governmentcontracts,
the effectivenessof agile software development,the interpretationof CMMI–DEV V1.2 are a few
discussionsthateasilysuccumbtofuzzythinking.
Fuzzythinkingandlogical inconsistencyisnotthe same as differencesof opinion, orevendifferencesin
fact. The level of fuzzinessandlogical inconsistencyusuallyfollowsthe levelof maturityof the speaker.
Accordingto Dreyfusgainingexpertise inanysubjecthas5 levels
 Novice
 AdvancedBeginner
 Competent
 Proficient
 Expert
Let’slookat Earned Value Managementasanexample.
 Novice – a setof contextfree rulesare acquired.These rulesignore the contextsensitive
featuresof EarnedValue,suchasthe stabilityof the Performance MeasurementBaseline,the
managementof ManagementReserve,the flow of fundsfromthe Total AllocatedBudgetdown
to Control AccountsandWork Packages.
 AdvancedBeginner–throughpractical experience,the novice beginstorecognize situations
where the rote rulescannotbe describedinobjective,contextfree terms.Sizeimplicitsize of a
Work Package and the associatedbudget(BCWS) comparedtothe implicitorexplicitrisk
determinesthe methodof physical performance measurement.
 Competent–superimposinganoverall strategyonthe developmentof the Performance
MeasurementBaseline (PMB) ontopof the AdvancedBeginnerandNovice’sunderstandingof
the principles.DoesthisPMBdescribe the inherentriskof the programandthe mitigation
activitiesneededtohandle thatrisk?What impactsonphysical percentcomplete arisefromthis
risk?
 Proficient–inthe previouslevelsof maturitydecisionsare made usingdeliberativeand
consciouschoices.The proficientuserof EarnedValue makesdecisions,aswell,onthe “feel”of
the data. “These numbersdon’tfeel rightforourcurrentphase of the program.”“This SPI
shouldbe decreasingafterwe have passedPreliminaryDesignReview,andsince they’re not,
there issome otherissue we have todiscover.”The instinctivereactionstoinformationcome of
similarexperiencesinsimilarsituations.There isaspontaneousresponse comesfroman
“understanding”of the planorstrategy.

2.  Expert– no longerseesEarnedValue asa data gatheringandreportingprocess.The PP&C
expertusesEarnedValue asa paradigmto “manage”the program.The problemsolvingand
decisionmakingprocessesbecomeintegratedwiththe informationproducedbyEarnedValue.
These “actionable information”processesare embeddedinthe dailyrhythmof the program.
Now To The Problem
Whenthere isa suggestionto“simplify”somethingorreplace itwithan alternative,oreventoredefine
formulasandwords,saythe applicationof EarnedValue,the proficientorexpertwillrespondwith“OK,
here’sthe minimal setof activitieswithinthe 32Criteriaof ANSI/EIA–748Bthat can be usedandstill call
it EarnedValue.”The Novice mightsay,“I’ve gota betteridea,let’scopyACWPtoBCWP andwe’ll be
doingEarnedValue.”(Thisisanonsense approachof course,butone I have actuallyseenin practice on
a $130M ERP deployment.)
The Advance Beginnermightsay“Let’smove ourunusedWorkPackage fundsback to Management
Reserve (MR) tobe usedlatter,”or“let’sextenddurationof thisWorkPackage andre–spreadthe
BCWS.” Thisiscalled“rubberbandingthe baseline.”
So whenthere isa discussiononaforumor a blogaboutapplyingEV and response come back,“whyare
youmakingthisso complex?”the firstresponsemightbe “well togetactual value fromEarnedValue
youneedto applyitat the Competentlevelorabove.
Simplification“tricks”are justthat “tricks.”To move fromthe Novice toAdvancedBeginnerrequires
careful step–by–stepdeployment.Seekingadvice andfeedbackfrommore mature sources.These don’t
have to be people,butworkingexamplesof how EV isappliedatthe expertorat leastthe proficient
level.The bestsource of expertandproficientapplicationof EarnedValue istolookatthe Earned Value
ManagementSystemDescriptionsthatcanbe foundonthe web.These are DCMA (Defense Contract
ManagementAgency) assessedprocessesforprogramssubjecttoEarnedValue Management(EVM).
Noteveryuse of EV is guidedbyDCMA,but everyuse of EV should –I’d saymust – be guidedby
ANSI/EIA–748Band the NDIA Earned Value ManagementIntentGuide (EVMIG).Inthe absence of this
framework,youmightcall whatyou’re doingEarnedValue –usingBCWS,ACWP,and computingor
“makingup” BCWP – but it“ain’tso.”
Of the 32 Criteriafrom748B there 10 or 11 “must do’s”for anyone tosay “we’re doingEV.”Theyare:
Organization
1. Define the authorizedworkelementsforthe program.A work breakdownstructure (WBS),tailored
for effective internal managementcontrol,iscommonlyusedinthisprocess.
2. Identifythe programorganizational structure includingthe majorsubcontractorsresponsible for
accomplishingthe authorizedwork,anddefine the organizationalelementsinwhichworkwillbe
plannedandcontrolled.
Planningand Scheduling
6. Schedule the authorizedworkinamannerwhichdescribesthe sequence of workandidentifies
significanttaskinterdependenciesrequiredtomeetthe requirementsof the program.

3. 7. Identifyphysical products,milestones,technical performance goals,orotherindicatorsthatwill be
usedto measure progress.
8. Establishandmaintaina time-phasedbudgetbaseline,atthe control account level,againstwhich
program performance canbe measured.Budgetforfar-termeffortsmaybe heldinhigherlevel
accounts until an appropriate time forallocationatthe control account level.Initialbudgetsestablished
for performance measurementwill be basedoneitherinternal managementgoalsorthe external
customernegotiatedtargetcostincludingestimatesforauthorizedbutundefinitizedwork.On
governmentcontracts,if anovertarget baseline isusedforperformance measurementreporting
purposes,priornotificationmustbe providedtothe customer.
9. Establishbudgetsforauthorizedworkwithidentificationof significant costelements(labor,material,
etc.) as neededforinternal managementandforcontrol of subcontractors.
Accounting Consideration
16. Recorddirectcosts ina mannerconsistentwiththe budgetsinaformal systemcontrolledbythe
general booksof account.
AnalysisandManagementReports
22. At leastona monthlybasis,generate the followinginformationatthe control accountand other
levelsasnecessaryformanagementcontrol usingactual costdata from, or reconcilable with,the
accountingsystem:(1) Comparisonof the amountof plannedbudgetandthe amountof budgetearned
for workaccomplished.Thiscomparisonprovidesthe schedule variance.(2) Comparisonof the amount
of the budgetearnedthe actual (appliedwhere appropriate)directcostsforthe same.
27. Developrevisedestimatesof costat completionbasedonperformance todate,commitmentvalues
for material,andestimatesof future conditions.Compare thisinformationwiththe performance
measurementbaseline toidentifyvariancesatcompletionimportanttocompanymanagementandany
applicable customerreportingrequirementsincludingstatementsof fundingrequirements.
Revisionsand Data Maintenance
28. Incorporate authorizedchangesinatimelymanner,recordingthe effectsof suchchanges inbudgets
and schedules.Inthe directedeffortpriortonegotiationof achange,base such revisionsonthe amount
estimatedandbudgetedtothe programorganizations.
If you’re doingall of these,you’re doingEarnedValue Management.If you’re doingsome butnotthe
others,you’re NOTdoingEarnedValue.Youmaybe doingsomethingelse,butit’snotEarnedValue.The
level of maturityneededtoperformthese 10activitiesisbeyondthe Novice.Possiblythe Advanced
Beginnercantake a stabat it.But competencyisneededtouse EarnedValue Managementinaproject
managementcontext.Beyondjustreporting.Managingthe project.