21. Anchoring Bias
Anchoring is a cognitive
bias that describes the
common human tendency
to rely too heavily on the
first piece
of information offered
(the "anchor") when
making decisions.
21
Cognitive Biases
22. Bandwagon Effect
The bandwagon effect is
a psychological
phenomenon whereby
people do something
primarily because other
people are doing it,
regardless of their own
beliefs, which they may
ignore or override.
22
Cognitive Biases
23. Projection bias
The tendency to
unconsciously assume
that others
(or one's future selves)
share one's current
emotional states,
thoughts and values.
23
Cognitive Biases
24. Recency bias
Recency bias is the name
for the heavy influence
that recent experience
can have on our decision
making.
24
Cognitive Biases
33. What is Complexity?
Complexity is more a way
of thinking about the world
than a new way of working
with mathematical models.
33
Understanding Complexity
34. What is Complex System?
• It involves large numbers of
interacting elements
• The interactions are
nonlinear, and minor changes
can produce
disproportionately major
consequences.
• The system is dynamic, the
whole is greater than the
sum of its parts, and
solutions can’t be imposed;
34
Understanding Complexity
35. What is Cynefin?
Cynefin,
pronounced ku-nev-in,
is a Welsh word that
signifies the multiple
factors in our environment
and our experience that
influence us in ways we
can never understand.
35
Understanding Complexity- CYNEFIN
37. • Characteristics:
• Repeating patterns
• Clear cause and effect
• Fact-based management
• The Leader’s Job:
• Sense, Categorize, Respond
• Communicate in clear and direct ways
• Interactive communication may not be necessary
• Danger!
• Complacency and comfort
• Desire to make complex problems simple
• Overreliance on best practice
CYNEFIN – SIMPLE DOMAIN
39. • Characteristics:
• Expert diagnosis required
• Cause and effect not immediately apparent to everyone
• Fact based but—more than one right answer
• The Leader’s Job:
• Sense, Analyze, Respond
• Create panels of experts
• Listen to conflicting advice
• Danger!
• Experts can become overconfident and blind to other solutions
• Viewpoints of non-experts are excluded
• Analysis Paralysis
CYNEFIN – complicated DOMAIN
41. • Characteristics:
• Flux and unpredictability
• Need for creative and innovative approaches
• Unknown Unknowns
• The Leader’s Job:
• Probe, Sense, Respond
• Increased levels of interaction and communication
• Use methods that help generate ideas
• Danger!
• Temptation to fall back into habitual command-and-control
mode
• Temptation to look for facts rather than allowing patterns to
emerge
• Desire to cut short time involved
CYNEFIN – complex DOMAIN
43. • Characteristics:
• High turbulence
• Many decisions and no time
• High tension
• The Leader’s Job:
• Act, Sense, Respond
• Look for what works instead of seeking right answers
• Provide clear, direct communication
• Danger!
• Applying a command-and-control approach longer than
needed
• Missed opportunity for innovation
• Chaos unabated
CYNEFIN – chaotic DOMAIN
44. If you don’t know where
you’re going, any road will
take you there
44
CYNEFIN – DISORDER DOMAIN
45. Find customers and run
cheap experiments to
check if your assumptions
are correct
45
Scientific Method
51. high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations
in history, science, finance, and technology
belief in stationary (sustained, stable outcomes) in a complex situation leads to blindness,
which can yield catastrophic results