Data from the media allows to enrich our analysis and to incorporate these insights into our models to capture nonlinear behaviour and feedback effects of human interaction, assessing their global impact on the society and enabling us to construct fragility indices and early warning systems. https://www.bigdataspain.org/2017/talk/monitoring-world-geopolitics-through-big-data Big Data Spain 2017 16th - 17th November Kinépolis Madrid

2. November 2017
Monitoring world geopolitics
through Big Data
Alvaro Ortiz and Tomasa Rodrigo
Big Data Spain 2017

3. Click here to modify the style of the master title
Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data
Summary
Introduction: why and how we use Big Data01
Geopolitical and social analysis02
The geography and digital transformation03

4. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data
01Introduction:
why and how we use Big Data

5. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data
Traditional data could not answer some relevant questions
4
Geopolitical events
Political events and social reaction
Natural disasters and epidemics
… avoiding us to measure their economic impact…
… in a world with increasing risks and uncertainty
The use of Big Data and Data science techniques allows
us to quantify these trends

6. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data
New framework in the digital era…
5
Novel data-driven computational approaches are needed to enable the new digital era to
exploit the new opportunities where data can be used to study the world in real time from micro
to macro level
New answers to old
questions
Better and faster
infrastructure
New availability of data
Higher computational abilities to
face more data granularity
Combination of historical data
with real time data
Advanced data science
techniques and algorithms

7. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data
Deepening the
statistical and
econometric skills
to analyze and
deal with high-
dimensional data
Interpreting the
results:
summarize,
describe and
analyze the
information
Developing the
data management
and programming
capabilities to
work with large-
scale datasets
Making the right
questions
…which needs the development of new competences to take
advantage of it
New data may end up changing the way in which economists approach empirical questions
and the tools they use to answer them 6

8. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data
Our working process
7
GDELT
(Global Database
on Events,
Location
and Tone)
Clean,
Aggregate
& transform
the data
Fuse,
visualize
& analyze
the data
BigQuery
Data
Storage
(SQL)
Databases SaaS Analysis Visualization

9. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data
What is GDELT?
8
… georeferenced across
the entire planet…
… including over 300 events
around the world and more than
30000 themes…
…and collecting emotions using
some of the most sophisticated
algorithms
Open database of human
society from every corner of the
globe dating back to 1979 …
Global Database on Events Location and Tone

10. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data
GDELT database and sentiment analysis
99
The GDELT translingual platform represents
the largest real time streaming news machine
translation of the world: 99% of its daily non-
English volume is translated in real time into
English
A real time computable record of global society
that can be visualized, analyzed, modeled and
forecasted
It moves towards a global perspective on
what’s happening and how the world is feeling
about it
𝐀𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐭𝐨𝐧𝐞 =
𝑃𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑑𝑠 − 𝑁𝑒𝑔𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑑𝑠
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑤𝑜𝑟𝑑𝑠
+
Global Content Analysis Measures (GCAM)
𝟒𝟎 different 𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬
to capture
more than 𝟐𝟑𝟎𝟎 𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐝𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬
with a value score
(WordNet Affect 1.0, WordNet Affect 1.1, WordNet Domains 3.2, WordNet 3.1
Lexical Categories, Subjectivity Lexicon, SentiWords, SentiWordNet 3.0, Lexicoder
Sentiment Dictionary, Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count,…)

11. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data
Our products
10
Geographical Analysis Housing Prices
(sentiment on Housing Prices)
Measuring Sentiments
(sentiment Analysis on Economy and Society)
Financial Stability & Macroprudential
(ECB & FED FS index by FED Board)
Monetary & Stability tones by Central
Banks
Political, Geopolitical Social Indexes
(Political Indexs)
Color Maps NAFTA Topics
(Nafta Project)
Politics & Financial Networks
(Political Netwoks)
Mix Hard data & Sentiment & VAR models
(CBSI and Turkey Sentiment Indexes)

12. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data
02Geopolitical and social analysis

13. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data
Tracking Geopolitics on real time
is useful to identify the main hot spots and potential spillovers
12Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
Conflict Intensity Map Oct 2017
(Number of conflicts/ Total events)

14. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data
From an historical perspective…
13Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
BBVA Research World Conflict Intensity
Index 1979-2017
World Protest Intensity Map 1979- 2017
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
USA
UK
Norway
Sweden
Austria
Germany
France
Netherlands
Italy
Spain
Belgium
Ireland
Portugal
Greece
Poland
Czech Republic
Hungary
Bulgaria
Romania
Croatia
Turkey
Russia
Ukraine
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Moldova
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Morocco
Algeria
Tunisia
Libya
Egypt
Israel
Jordan
Syria
Iraq
Iran
UAE
Bahrain
Qatar
Oman
Saudi Arabia
Mexico
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Peru
EMEurope&CISDevelopedMarketsN.Africa&MiddleEastLATAM

15. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data
…to the current “hot” spots…
14Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
BBVA Research Refugees Flows Map in 2015-17
Number of media citations about refugees’ inflows and outflows
BBVA Research Asia Conflict Intensity
Index 2008-17

16. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data
Social unrest events across the world: Cairo, Istanbul and Hong Kong cases
Protest events
Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
… in “high definition”
15

17. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data
Democracy
Education
Election
Leader
Media msm
Self identified human rights
Broadcast and media
Public sector management
Governance
Political party republican
Anti corruption
Peace operations and conflict management
Arrest
Criminal justice
Social development
Human rights
Dictatorship
Communist
Soldiers
Fragility conflict and violence
Conflict and violence
Political violence and war
Nuclear and chemical war
Military
Manmade disaster implied
Political violence and civil war
Weapons of mass destruction
Nuclear energy
Weapons bomb
Weapons cruise missile
Weapons surface to air missile
Weapons warhead
Terror
Armedconflict
Bombthreat
Kill
2015 2016 2017
We can check hot spots like North Korea tensions in detail…
Topics colormap related with North Korea 2015- 17Topics network related with North Korea 2017
16

18. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data
… the China’s links with the rest of the world…
Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
Chinese slowdown: media perception and country network
Oman
Qatar
Iran
Kazakhstan
Russia
U.A.E.
Iraq
Nicaragua
Saudi ArabiaMexico
Chile
Dominican R.Brazil
Bolivia
Ecuador
Venezuela
Peru
Panama
Argentina
Spain
Austria
Ukraine
Israel
Greece
Poland
Belgium
Czech Republic
Italy
Netherlands
Finland
Ireland
Iceland
Portugal
Hungary
Yemen
Sri Lanka
Macau
Indonesia
Philippines
Taiwan
Cambodia
Pakistan
Turkey
Brunei
N. Zealand
Burkina Faso
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Zimbabwe
Uganda
Nigeria
Zambia
Congo
Mozambique
Kenya
Sweden
Angola
E. Guinea
EthiopiaSouth Africa
France
US
UK
Japan
Australia
Canada
S. Korea India
Switzerland
Germany
Hong Kong
China
17

19. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data
… the world trade evolution from an historical perspective…
BBVA Research World Trade Support Index
(Tone & Coverage verbal cooperation at WTO)
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Verbal Cooperation (3 months mov.avg)
Material Cooperation (3 months mov.avg)
BBVA Research Trade Support Index
Changes 2008-17
Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
18

20. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data
Spanish perception around the world according to the media
Negative tone
Positive tone
Neutral tone
Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
… and even the Spanish economic perception around the world
19

21. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data
03The geography and digital
transformation

22. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data
Media digital sentiment over the world in 2017 varies between regions…
21

23. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data
…and over time. Our index allows us to understand the driving
forces behind this evolution…
22Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
Media sentiment digital index and components
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Mar-15
Apr-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Above
average
ON
average
Below
average -2.4
-1.4
-0.4
0.6
1.6
2.6
apr-15
may-15
jun-15
jul-15
aug-15
sep-15
oct-15
nov-15
dec-15
jan-16
feb-16
mar-16
Digital Economy
-2.4
-1.4
-0.4
0.6
1.6
2.6
apr-15
may-15
jun-15
jul-15
aug-15
sep-15
oct-15
nov-15
dec-15
jan-16
feb-16
mar-16
Fintech
-2.4
-1.4
-0.4
0.6
1.6
2.6
apr-15
may-15
jun-15
jul-15
aug-15
sep-15
oct-15
nov-15
dec-15
jan-16
feb-16
mar-16
Digital Regulation
Emerging AsiaUSEurope Confidence Interval for Emerging Asia

24. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data
…focusing on particular cases such as the Big Data perception
evolution among the main world players
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
US
Malaysia
UK
Indonesia
Italy
India
US
World
Europe
EmergingAsia
Philippines
Germany
Spain
France
Vietnam
China
Bangladesh
Pakistan
2017 2015 2016
Big Data media sentiment in the world and by countries overt time
23
0.05
0.07
0.09
0.11
0.13
0.15
0.17
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
World media coverage on Big Data

25. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data
Turkey United Kingdom
France
India
Germany
Italy
Spain
Iran
Taiwan
Korea
Indonesia
Vietnam
Albania
Colombia
Hong Kong
Thailand
Philippines
Kosovo
Armenia
Switzerland
Peru
Portugal
Hungary Qatar
Belarus
NetherlandsBangladesh
Bolivia
Kuwait
Uruguay
Tunisia
Ecuador
Moldova
Bahrain
Slovenia
Sri Lanka
Cuba
Croatia
Estonia
Guatemala
Latvia
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Digital evolution and its impact on employment and productivity
24
+
-
Jobs develompment
Productivityandinnovation
Importance of digital variables to explain job development and productivity

26. Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data
You can find us at:
Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
Media sentiment digital index and components
BBVA Research webpage
LinkedIn
Twitter
25

27. November 2017
Monitoring world geopolitics
through Big Data
Alvaro Ortiz and Tomasa Rodrigo
Big Data Spain 2017