SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Copyright © PSG
PSG Wealth
Investment Houseviews
Adriaan Pask, PhD
Chief Investment Officer
April 2019
2
Contents
Copyright © PSG
Contents
01 | Main themes and messages
Copyright © PSG
06 | Bonds
05 | Cash 13 | Job bucket
07 | Preference shares
02 | Economic review
03 | Financial market review
04 | Tactical overview
08 | Property
10 |Currencies
11 | Article bucket
09 | Equity
Page 3
00| Main themes and messages
Page 4
 Many reasons to be positive about domestic opportunities
 Lower sentiment create attractive entry points to certain asset classes
 Don’t think of the domestic investment environment as negative, rather as opportunity rich
Client message
2019 – Positive domestic opportunities
Page 5
A| Rich opportunity locally
6
Copyright © PSG
-3.8%
-0.7%
-0.7%
-0.6%
0.2%
1.7%
2.7%
4.5%
7.7%
7.9%
-14% -9% -4% 1% 6% 11%
Agriculture
Transport
Manufacturing
Finance
Personal services
Electricity
Government
Construction
Trade
Mining
Industry growth
Rates in Q4 :2018
Quarter-on-quarter seasonally
adjusted and annualised
GDP
1,4%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
14/Q1
14/Q2
14/Q3
14/Q4
15/Q1
15/Q2
15/Q3
15/Q4
16/Q1
16/Q2
16/Q3
16/Q4
17/Q1
17/Q2
17/Q3
17/Q4
18/Q1
18/Q2
18/Q3
18/Q4
Quarter-on-quarter seasonally
adjusted and annualised
Primary Sector
Secondary Sector
Tertiary Sector
3.0%
1.7%
-1.1%
0,2
0,7
0,6
0,5
0,1
0,0
-0,1
0,0
-0,1
-0,3
LHS : growth rates RHS : contributions
0,7
0,2
1. Primary sectors are recovering
Declining in the mining industry contributed to negative growth in the primary sector in Q4 : 2018​
Source : STATS SA
7
Copyright © PSG
-4.8%
-1.7%
-1.2%
0.6%
0.9%
1.0%
1.0%
1.3%
1.6%
1.8%
-8% -4% 0% 4% 8%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Year-on-year
Primary Sector
Secondary Sector
Tertiary Sector
0.1%
0.9%
-0.2%
0,4
0,1
0,2
0,1
0,1
0,0
0,1
0,0
-0,1
-0,1
LHS : growth rates RHS : contributions
Finance
Transport
Government
Personal services
Manufacturing
Electricity
Trade
Construction
Mining
Agriculture
Industry growth
rates in 2018
GDP
0,8%
Declining in the agriculture industry contributed to negative growth in the
primary sector in 2018​
Source : STATS SA
8
Copyright © PSG
Primary Sector
-1.1%
Secondary Sector
3.0%
Tertiary Sector
1.7%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
Growth value added Q-o-Q%
Lower production in mining of gold and ‘other’ mining and quarrying (-3.8% vs -8.9%
previously) contributed to low primary sector in Q4 2018
Primary Sector Secondary Sector Tertiary Sector
4.5%
6.8%
-5.9%
-10.1%
21.1%
-4.8%
4.0%
-1.7%
3.3%
-3.9%
4.2%
-1.7%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Contractions recorded in agriculture (-4.8% vs 21.1% previously), mining (-1.7% vs -
4.2% ) Year-on-year
Agriculture Mining
Contractions were primarily recorded in internal trade, public
administration and mining​
Source : STATS SA
9
Copyright © PSG
2. Midcap revenues are improving
FTSE/JSE Top 40 Forecast – MidCap Revenue Growth
Source : I-Net Bridge
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
FTSE/JSE Top40 Forecast
10
Copyright © PSG
Source : Bloomberg
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19
12-monthforwardblendedP/E
12m Blended Forward P/E 12m Blended Forward P/E (Excl. Top 5) Average
Average (Excl. Top 5) 2 Std Dev Above/Below (Excl. Top 5)
3. Stocks hammered by “colder weather” offer great entry points
ALSI 12-month Forward Blended P/E
11
Copyright © PSG
Source : Bloomberg
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19
12-monthforwardblendedP/E
CAPE 12m Blended Forward P/E CAPE 12m Blended Forward P/E (Excl. Top 5)
Average Average (Excl. Top 5)
ALSI 12-month Forward Blended CAPE P/E
12
Copyright © PSG
Source : PSG Wealth Research Team
0
200
400
600
800
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Realearnings
CAPE12mBlendedForwardP/Eratio
CAPE 12m Blended Forward P/E
Real Earnings
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Realearnings
Realprice
Real price
Real Earnings
FTSE/JSE All Share Real Earnings vs Real Price
13
Copyright © PSG
Source : Bloomberg
0 5 10 15 20 25
REINET INVESTMEN
ABSA GROUP LTD
MMI HOLDINGS LTD
LIBERTY HLDGS
OLD MUTUAL LTD
ZEDER INVESTMENT
NEDBANK GROUP
INVESTEC PLC
INVESTEC LTD
ALEXANDER FORBES
PEREGRINE HOLD
STANDARD BANK GR
REMGRO LTD
RAND MERCHANT IN
RMB HOLDINGS LTD
JSE LTD
CORONAT
FIRSTRAND LTD
QUILTER PLC
TRANSACTION CAPT
DISCOVERY LTD
SANLAM LTD
SANTAM LTD
PSG GROUP LTD
PSG KONSULT LTD
CAPITEC BANK HOL
BEst P/E
BEst P/E’s in Financial Sector for End Apr-19
14
Copyright © PSG
Source : PSG Wealth Research Team
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
Yield
NC3MM (CL) BF912 (CL)
4. Interest rates will probably remain stable for the rest of the year
ZAR FRA 9x12 & 3 month NCD​
15
Copyright © PSG
SA Equity Market underperformed Global Equities in Dollar terms
Source : I-Net Bridge
12-Month Performance
MSCI Emerging ($) : -7.32%
MSCI World ($) : 4.42%
FTSE/JSE All Share Index ($) : -12.42%
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
MSCI Emerging ($) MSCI World ($) FTSE/JSE All Share (US$)
Month YTD 12-Month 2-Years (Ann) 3-Years (Ann) 5-Years (Ann)
MSCI Emerging ($) 2.00% 2.79% -7.32% 5.04% 8.69% 1.63%
MSCI World ($) 3.37% -100.00% 4.42% 7.68% 9.23% 5.24%
FTSE/JSE All Share $ 5.05% 0.11% -12.42% 0.80% 3.17% -2.51%
16
Copyright © PSG
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
3M 2Y 3Y 5Y 6Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y
Yield
Residual Maturity
South Africa Yield Curve (7 May 2019) 1M ago 6M ago
5. South African bond returns should support equities
South Africa Yield Curve – 7 May-19
Source : World Government Bonds
17
Copyright © PSG
Source : PSG Wealth Research Team
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Apr-95
Apr-96
Apr-97
Apr-98
Apr-99
Apr-00
Apr-01
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
USD/ZAR vs S&P 500 Index (USD Cumulative Returns)
USD/ZAR Cumulative Returns S&P 500 (USD) Cumulative Returns
100
200
300
400
500
Apr-95
Apr-96
Apr-97
Apr-98
Apr-99
Apr-00
Apr-01
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
USD/ZAR vs MSCI World Index (USD Cumulative Returns)
USD/ZAR Cumulative Returns MSCI World Index (USD) Cumulative Returns
6. South Africans are better shielded from corrections in offshore
markets
18
Copyright © PSG
36.95%
5.80% 6.35%
9.20%
5.20%
9.70%
2.40%
8.65%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
South Africa United States United
Kingdom
Euro Area Germany France Japan China
Interest Rate (negative) Inflation Rate Unemployment Rate Real GDP Change Misery Index
7. Sentiment is poor
South Africa is one of the most miserable countries in the world
Source : Trading Economics
19
Copyright © PSG
Source : Trading Economics
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
South African Inflation Rate
4.5%
8. Inflation is relatively low and reasonably stable
And the hurdle for generating inflation beating returns too
20
Copyright © PSG
Source : Trading Economics
0
3
6
9
12
15
2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
South African Inflation Rate
Record Low in 2004
4.5%
Inflation rate in South Africa averaged 9.02% from 1968 until 2019, reaching an all
time high of 20.07% in January 1686 and a record low of 0.2% in 2004​
21
Copyright © PSG
Source : Bloomberg
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
LeadingIndex
GDP%
Real GDP Growth Y/Y%
SARB Business Cycle Leading Indicator (RH Scale)
9. SARB business cycle leading indicator is projecting a significant
improvement in growth
Page 22
B| Diversification yielding higher benefits
23
Copyright © PSG
Reliability
…Something that can help build trust
Source : Morningstar
24
Copyright © PSG
Risk management
…Knowing when to act
Source : Morningstar
25
Copyright © PSG
Risk management
…Knowing when to act
Source : Morningstar
Page 26
C| Risk that investors pose to themselves are
higher than usual​
27
Copyright © PSG
Mute the impact of emotions and client behavior
Source : Morningstar
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
ExcessReturns%
Millions Net Flows Excess Returns
Page 28
Mute the impact of emotions and client behavior
Risk of missing out on the “Best Days”
Source : Morningstar Direct
-150
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
Index
Month
FTSE/JSE All Share TR
FTSE/JSE All Share (Excl. 15 Best Days)
15.23%
6.51%
1.00%
-3.47%
-7.25%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Invested since
Inception
Best 25 days
missed
Best 50 days
missed
Best 75 days
missed
Best 100 days
missed
FTSE/JSEAllShareDifferenceinreturns
29
Copyright © PSG
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2009Q2 2010Q2 2011Q2 2012Q2 2013Q2 2014Q2 2015Q2 2016Q2 2017Q2
Emigrationsellingofresidentialproperty
PSGWCreatorFoFSubsequent
South Africa - Emigration selling of residential property
PSG Wealth Creator FoF 5-Year subsequent
Source : PSG Wealth Research Team
Date
Total
Emigration
Subsequent
5-Year
January 2009 8.20% 20.68%
January 2010 7.00% 16.53%
January 2011 4.80% 12.45%
January 2012 4.50% 12.90%
January 2013 3.50% 11.48%
January 2014 4.50% 4.86%
January 2015 4.30% 4.86%
January 2016 5.20% 13.12%
January 2017 5.60% 17.35%
January 2018 7.80% 20.68%
Expected 5-Year Subsequent
Emigration research
PSG Wealth Creator FoF Subsequent vs SA Emigration of Residential Property
30
Copyright © PSG
Fund Current Number of Funds Since Inception
PSG Wealth Enhanced Interest Fund 31 1
PSG Wealth Income Fund 93 7
PSG Wealth Preserver FoF 155 7
PSG Wealth Moderate FoF 199 7
PSG Wealth Creator FoF 164 20
PSG Wealth Global Preserver FoF 124 7
PSG Wealth Global Moderate FoF 199 35
PSG Wealth Global Flexible FoF 181 4
PSG Wealth Global Creator FoF 1905 148
Source : PSG Wealth research Team
*The Enhanced Interest Fund is ranked against money market funds and not the peer group as with our other solutions
Source : PSG Wealth Research Team
1
PART
We have great products with excellent track records
Our solutions are built to ensure they outperform their peer group consistently over time​
31
Copyright © PSG
Fund
Number
of Funds
1 Month
Rank
3 Month
Rank
6 Month
Rank
1 Year
Rank
2 Year
Rank
3 Year
Rank
4 Year
Rank
5 Year
Rank
6 Year
Rank
7 Year
Rank
8 Year
Rank
9 Year
Rank
10 Year
Rank
Since
Inception
Rank
PSG Wealth Enhanced Interest Fund 31 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1
PSG Wealth Income FoF 93 28 48 64 61 47 26 23 13 11 8 7 6 0 7
PSG Wealth Preserver FoF 155 51 83 97 83 64 39 22 17 10 5 6 7 0 7
PSG Wealth Moderate FoF 199 127 91 134 91 59 25 18 18 13 9 7 9 9 7
PSG Wealth Creator FoF 164 130 80 115 57 58 29 34 36 26 24 24 19 0 20
PSG Wealth Global Preserver FoF 124 49 52 55 21 29 12 4 5 4 2 3 4 0 7
PSG Wealth Global Moderate FoF 199 76 109 111 112 92 103 105 90 41 40 0 0 0 35
PSG Wealth Global Flexible FoF 181 19 22 7 8 8 7 6 8 7 4 4 3 0 4
PSG Wealth Global Creator FoF 1 905 469 195 208 110 129 139 75 78 118 0 0 0 0 148
Source : PSG Wealth Research Team
1
PART
Key
1st
Quartile
2nd
Quartile
3rd
Quartile
4th
Quartile
The PSG Wealth Enhanced Interest Fund and PSG Wealth Global Creator FoF delivered
Top Quartile performance over all periods since inception​
32
Copyright © PSG
1
PART
Our solutions are built to ensure they outperform their peer group
consistently over time​
1M 3M 6M 1YR 3YR 5YR 10 YR
Enhanced Interest 0.68% 1.92% 3.94% 8.02% 8.09% 7.52% 0.00%
Income 0.94% 2.19% 4.24% 7.45% 8.31% 8.14% 0.00%
Preserver 1.81% 4.47% 4.88% 5.79% 6.23% 7.41% 0.00%
Moderate 2.41% 7.05% 6.22% 4.79% 5.65% 7.09% 12.10%
Creator 3.10% 7.56% 8.17% 2.58% 5.20% 5.46% 0.00%
Global Preserver Feeder -0.20% 11.10% 1.28% 19.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Global Moderate Feeder 0.68% 12.75% 3.04% 16.11% 4.90% 8.49% 0.00%
Global Flexible Feeder 1.36% 15.32% 6.93% 24.25% 8.66% 10.33% 0.00%
Global Creator Feeder 2.82% 19.89% 9.28% 25.07% 12.04% 14.58% 0.00%
Global Preserver (USD) 0.99% 2.75% 4.70% 3.81% 4.67% 3.46% 0.00%
Global Moderate (USD) 1.79% 4.06% 5.92% 0.86% 4.65% 2.03% 0.00%
Global Flexible (USD) 3.07% 6.78% 10.63% 8.83% 10.77% 6.96% 0.00%
Global Moderate (USD) 1.79% 4.06% 5.92% 0.86% 4.65% 2.03% 0.00%
Global Creator (USD) 4.07% 9.91% 11.57% 8.67% 11.78% 7.72% 0.00%
Money Market 0.00% 1.15% 2.97% 6.65% 7.24% 6.92% 6.43%
Income 0.72% 1.96% 4.31% 8.08% 8.47% 7.83% 0.00%
Diversified Income 0.85% 1.86% 3.82% 6.46% 7.90% 7.68% 7.88%
Stable 1.17% 1.71% 1.73% 2.24% 6.22% 6.90% 0.00%
Balanced 1.62% 1.53% -1.48% -1.40% 5.08% 6.57% 12.39%
Flexible 1.47% 2.18% -0.98% -0.64% 5.52% 7.41% 15.68%
Equity 2.54% 1.40% -2.80% -4.84% 4.96% 5.05% 15.40%
Global Flexible Feeder (ZAR) -1.11% 8.49% -3.44% 8.67% 5.96% 8.19% 0.00%
Global Equity Feeder (ZAR) -0.93% 8.53% -3.67% 7.81% 7.47% 7.87% 0.00%
Source: Morningstar Direct
PSG WEALTH MULTI-MANAGED SOLUTIONS
PSG ASSET MANAGEMENT FUNDS
33
Copyright © PSG
SARB Indicators
SARB Business Cycle Indicators Index Level (Jan 2015=100)
Source : I-Net Bridge
85
90
95
100
105
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
Indexvalue
Leading Indicator
Coincident Indicator
Lagging Indicator
FTSE/JSE All Share Index
34
Copyright © PSG
Source : I-Net Bridge
Relative Strength Index (RSI) of Business Cycle Indicators (Jan 2015=100)​
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Apr-00
Oct-00
Apr-01
Oct-01
Apr-02
Oct-02
Apr-03
Oct-03
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
RSIofIndexLevel[Jan2015=100]
Leading Indicator
Coincident Indicator
Lagging Indicator
35
Copyright © PSG
CBEO Volatility Index : VIX©
Volatility decreased in Apr-19
Source : I-Net Bridge
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
VIXIndexLevel
Mean : 18.63
Std Dev : 8.33
13.12
36
Copyright © PSG
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
10
20
30
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
SAVI +1 Std Dev -1 Std Dev Average PSG Wealth Creator FoF - 5 Year Subsequent
SA Volatility Index : SAVI©
Volatility decreased in Apr-19
Source : I-Net Bridge
Mean : 21.76
Std Dev : 6.48
15.43
37
Copyright © PSG
85
100
115
130
145
Apr-90
Apr-91
Apr-92
Apr-93
Apr-94
Apr-95
Apr-96
Apr-97
Apr-98
Apr-99
Apr-00
Apr-01
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
SACCIIndex
SA Chamber of Commerce & Industry: SACCI©
Business confidence is low which means opportunities are out there
Source : I-Net Bridge
Rubicon Speech
Civil War Fears
GFC
Now
38
Copyright © PSG
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
Apr-90
Apr-91
Apr-92
Apr-93
Apr-94
Apr-95
Apr-96
Apr-97
Apr-98
Apr-99
Apr-00
Apr-01
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
ConsumerConfidenceIndex
FNB Consumer Confidence Index™
FNB/BER decreased in Apr-19
Source : I-Net Bridge
39
Copyright © PSG
RMB Business Confidence Index™
RMB/BER decreased in Apr-19
Source : I-Net Bridge
10
25
40
55
70
85
Apr-90
Apr-91
Apr-92
Apr-93
Apr-94
Apr-95
Apr-96
Apr-97
Apr-98
Apr-99
Apr-00
Apr-01
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
BusinessConfidenceIndex
40
Copyright © PSG
US “Misery Index”
US Misery Index increased in Apr-19
Source : I-Net Bridge
4
6
8
10
12
14
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
USMiseryIndex
41
Copyright © PSG
Eurozone “Misery Index”
Eurozone Misery Index decreased in Apr-19
Source : I-Net Bridge
8
10
12
14
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
EuroMisery
42
Copyright © PSG
South African “Misery Index”
SA Misery Index increased in Apr-19
Source : I-Net Bridge
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
SAMiseryIndex
Page 43
01| Economic Review​
44
Copyright © PSG
Economic Indicators
As at End Apr-19
APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP AUG JUL JUN MAY
Repo 6.75% 6.75% 6.75% 6.75% 6.75% 6.75% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50%
Prime 10.25% 10.25% 10.25% 10.25% 10.25% 10.25% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%
FRA 9x12 7.06% 7.09% 7.09% 7.12% 7.34% 7.41% 7.63% 7.53% 7.65% 7.23% 7.31% 7.03%
Inflation * 4.5% 4.1% 4.0% 4.5% 5.2% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 5.1% 4.6% 4.4%
PMI 50.70 49.90 46.20 49.90 50.70 49.50 42.40 44.50 45.20 49.90 47.90 49.80
r o l i
Unemployment
GDP growth (y/y)
GDP growth (q/q)
Current account (% of GDP)
Source: INET, Stats SA, SARB, Reuters, Trading Economics
* Data not yet released by product provider
Quarter 2 (30 June)Quarter 4 (31 December) Quarter 3 (30 September)
2018
2.60% -0.50% -2.70%
Quarter 1 (31 March)
-3.80% -3.40% -3.40% -3.40%
27.10% 27.50% 27.20% 26.70%
1.10% 1.30% 0.10% 0.70%
1.40%
2019 2018
45
Copyright © PSG
April 2019 Manufacturing PMI: Above 50 April 2019 Manufacturing PMI: Below 50
Country Last Previous Change Highest Lowest Country Last Previous Change Highest Lowest
Denmark 59.59 56.64 2.95 69.79 24.99 Canada 49.70 50.50 -0.80 57.10 47.50
United Arab Emirates 57.60 55.70 1.90 61.20 51.70 Japan 49.50 49.20 0.30 56.20 29.60
Saudi Arabia 56.80 56.80 0.00 61.80 51.40 Austria 49.20 50.00 -0.80 64.30 46.90
Greece 56.60 54.70 1.90 56.60 30.20 Italy 49.10 47.40 1.70 59.00 47.40
Hungary 54.90 52.50 2.40 62.00 37.20 Poland 49.00 48.70 0.30 55.90 46.90
Australia 54.80 51.00 3.80 62.50 29.47 Switzerland 48.50 50.30 -1.80 66.90 32.80
Norway 53.80 56.30 -2.50 64.10 36.90 Hong Kong 48.40 48.00 0.40 53.30 44.40
United Kingdom 53.10 55.10 -2.00 61.50 34.40 Taiwan 48.20 49.00 -0.80 56.90 45.60
United States 52.60 52.40 0.20 57.90 50.70 Euro Area 47.90 47.50 0.40 60.60 33.50
Ireland 52.50 53.90 -1.40 59.10 48.00 South Africa 47.20 45.00 2.20 60.87 35.09
Vietnam 52.50 51.90 0.60 56.50 43.60 Turkey 46.80 47.20 -0.40 55.70 42.70
Netherlands 52.00 52.50 -0.50 63.40 48.00 Czech Republic 46.60 47.30 -0.70 59.80 46.00
New Zealand 51.90 53.40 -1.50 62.80 36.10 Germany 44.40 44.10 0.30 63.30 32.00
India 51.80 52.60 -0.80 55.00 47.90
Russia 51.80 52.80 -1.00 54.70 47.60
Spain 51.80 50.90 0.90 56.10 41.10 Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/manufacturing-pmi
Brazil 51.50 52.80 -1.30 53.50 41.60
Sweden 50.90 52.50 -1.60 70.40 34.00 Key:
Egypt 50.80 49.90 0.90 52.50 37.10 Large economies
Indonesia 50.40 51.20 -0.80 58.50 46.40 Members of the EU
Singapore 50.30 50.80 -0.50 53.10 48.30 BRICS countries
China 50.20 50.80 -0.60 52.30 47.20
South Korea 50.20 48.80 1.40 52.60 45.70
Mexico 50.10 49.80 0.30 57.10 49.20
France 50.00 49.70 0.30 58.80 42.70
Production Manufacturing Index
Norway had the largest drop -2.50 while Australia had the largest gain 3.80
46
Copyright © PSG
PMI Heatmap
As at End Apr-19
Source : Trading Economics
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR
Switzerland 54.60 57.80 58.60 57.40 55.60 60.10 60.90 61.20 61.70 62.00 65.10 65.20 65.30 65.50 60.30 63.60 62.40 61.60 61.90 64.80 59.70 57.40 57.70 57.80 54.30 55.40 50.30 48.50
Germany 56.40 56.80 58.30 58.20 59.50 59.60 58.10 59.30 60.60 60.60 62.50 63.30 61.10 60.60 58.20 58.10 56.90 55.90 56.90 55.90 53.70 52.20 51.80 51.50 49.70 47.60 44.10 44.40
Euro Area 55.20 55.40 56.20 56.70 57.00 57.40 56.60 57.40 58.10 58.50 60.10 60.60 59.60 58.60 56.60 56.20 55.50 54.90 55.10 54.60 53.20 52.00 51.80 51.40 50.50 49.30 47.50 47.90
Australia 51.20 59.30 57.50 59.20 54.80 55.00 56.00 59.80 54.20 51.10 57.30 56.20 58.70 57.50 63.10 58.30 57.50 57.40 52.00 56.70 59.00 58.30 51.30 49.50 52.50 54.00 51.00 54.80
Ireland 55.50 53.80 53.60 55.00 55.90 56.00 54.60 56.10 55.40 54.40 58.10 59.10 57.60 56.20 54.10 55.30 55.40 56.60 56.30 57.50 56.30 54.90 55.40 54.50 52.60 54.00 53.90 52.50
United Kingdom 55.90 54.60 54.20 57.30 56.70 54.30 55.10 56.90 55.90 56.30 58.20 56.30 55.30 55.20 55.10 53.90 54.40 54.40 54.00 52.80 53.80 51.10 53.10 54.20 52.80 52.00 55.10 53.10
Italy 53.00 55.00 55.70 56.20 55.10 55.20 55.10 56.30 56.30 57.80 58.30 57.40 59.00 56.80 55.10 53.50 52.70 53.30 51.50 50.10 50.00 49.20 48.60 49.20 47.80 47.70 47.40 49.10
Canada 53.50 54.70 54.70 55.90 55.10 54.70 55.50 54.60 55.00 54.30 54.40 54.70 55.90 55.60 55.70 55.50 56.20 57.10 56.90 56.80 54.80 53.90 54.90 53.60 53.00 52.60 52.60 49.70
France 53.60 52.20 53.30 55.10 53.80 54.80 54.90 55.80 56.10 56.10 57.70 58.80 58.40 55.90 53.70 53.80 54.40 52.50 53.30 53.50 52.50 51.20 50.80 49.70 51.20 51.50 49.70 50.00
Spain 55.60 54.80 53.90 54.50 55.40 54.70 54.00 52.40 54.30 55.80 56.10 55.80 55.20 56.00 54.80 54.40 53.40 53.40 52.90 53.00 51.40 51.80 52.60 51.10 52.40 49.90 50.90 51.80
United States 55.00 54.20 53.40 52.80 52.70 52.00 53.30 52.80 53.10 54.60 53.90 55.10 55.50 55.30 55.60 56.50 56.40 55.40 55.30 54.70 55.60 55.70 55.30 53.80 54.90 53.00 52.50 52.60
Japan 52.70 53.30 52.40 52.70 53.10 52.40 52.10 52.20 52.90 52.80 53.60 54.00 54.80 54.10 53.10 53.80 52.80 53.00 52.30 52.50 52.50 52.90 52.20 52.60 50.30 48.90 49.20 49.50
Turkey 48.70 49.70 52.30 51.70 53.50 54.70 53.60 55.30 53.50 52.80 52.90 54.90 55.70 55.60 51.80 48.90 46.40 46.80 49.00 46.40 42.70 44.30 44.70 44.20 44.20 46.40 47.20 46.80
Greece 46.60 47.70 46.70 48.20 49.60 50.50 50.50 52.20 52.80 52.10 52.20 53.10 55.20 56.10 55.00 52.90 54.20 53.50 53.50 53.90 53.60 53.10 54.00 53.80 53.70 54.20 54.70 56.60
India 50.40 50.70 52.50 52.50 51.60 50.90 47.90 51.20 51.20 50.30 52.60 54.70 52.40 52.10 51.00 51.60 51.20 53.10 52.30 51.70 52.20 53.10 54.00 53.20 53.90 54.30 54.30 51.80
Russia 54.70 52.50 52.40 50.80 52.40 50.30 52.70 51.60 51.90 51.10 51.50 52.00 52.10 50.20 50.60 51.30 49.80 49.50 48.10 48.90 50.00 51.30 52.60 51.70 50.90 50.10 52.80 51.80
China 51.00 51.70 51.20 50.30 49.60 50.40 51.10 51.60 51.00 51.00 50.80 51.50 51.50 51.60 51.00 51.10 51.10 51.00 50.80 50.60 50.00 50.10 50.20 49.70 48.30 49.90 50.80 50.20
Brazil 44.00 46.90 46.90 50.10 52.00 50.50 50.00 50.90 50.90 51.20 53.50 52.40 51.20 53.20 53.40 52.30 50.70 49.80 50.50 51.10 50.90 51.10 52.70 52.60 52.70 53.40 53.40 51.50
South Africa 50.90 52.50 52.20 44.70 51.50 46.70 42.90 44.00 44.90 47.80 48.60 48.60 49.90 50.80 46.90 50.90 49.80 47.90 51.50 43.40 43.20 42.40 49.50 49.50 49.90 46.20 45.00 47.20
2017 2018 2019
Between 45 and 47
Between 52 and 55
Between 47 and 52
Greater than 55
Less than 45
47
Copyright © PSG
Economic Growth
Quarterly Percentage Change , previous period
Source : Trading Economics
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
U.S 0.20 3.10 2.70 1.40 -2.70 2.00 -1.90 -8.20 -5.40 -0.50 1.30 3.90 1.70 3.90 2.70 2.50 -1.50 2.90 0.80 4.60 2.70 1.90 0.50 0.10 2.80 0.80 3.10 4.00
China N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.40 2.40 1.90 1.50 1.80 2.10 1.90 2.00 1.80 1.70 2.20 1.70
Japan 0.73 0.13 -0.45 0.49 0.30 -0.50 -1.28 -2.28 -4.89 2.12 0.03 1.44 0.86 1.25 1.83 -0.73 -1.55 -0.49 2.44 -0.15 1.12 -0.61 -0.38 0.22 1.10 0.94 0.77 -0.01
Germany 0.41 0.74 0.85 0.28 0.88 -0.27 -0.36 -1.93 -4.49 0.07 0.60 0.92 0.73 2.05 0.81 0.84 1.77 0.17 0.47 0.02 0.32 0.10 0.23 -0.45 -0.22 0.89 0.51 0.41
U.K 0.90 0.72 0.66 0.80 0.27 -0.68 -1.60 -2.18 -1.60 -0.23 0.16 0.27 0.54 0.90 0.46 0.07 0.59 0.15 0.38 0.19 0.65 -0.11 1.15 -0.15 0.64 0.54 0.85 0.52
France 0.77 0.72 0.37 0.26 0.38 -0.45 -0.32 -1.46 -1.64 -0.18 0.19 0.63 0.45 0.60 0.62 0.57 1.08 -0.02 0.23 0.10 0.07 -0.10 0.13 -0.09 0.01 0.71 -0.01 0.43
India 2.23 2.14 1.59 5.00 0.02 0.62 0.54 0.85 -1.74 5.37 2.56 2.18 2.63 2.40 2.94 2.30 1.75 1.35 -0.10 1.64 1.37 1.17 1.85 1.15 1.58 1.46 1.58 2.15
Italy 0.16 -0.10 -0.04 -0.15 1.11 -0.98 -1.40 -2.27 -2.75 -0.79 0.57 0.39 0.42 0.55 0.53 0.64 0.31 0.06 -0.58 -0.90 -0.88 -0.92 -0.45 -0.56 -1.03 0.01 0.34 -0.12
Brazil 1.93 1.87 0.96 1.71 1.60 1.74 1.86 -4.09 -2.02 2.55 2.48 2.30 1.68 1.56 1.27 1.12 0.68 1.91 -0.17 0.20 -0.13 0.90 1.57 0.19 0.01 2.07 0.56 -0.06
Canada 0.65 0.97 0.42 0.14 0.06 0.35 0.83 -1.16 -2.28 -1.10 0.45 1.18 1.19 0.51 0.71 1.13 0.74 0.19 1.39 0.79 0.03 0.33 0.20 0.12 1.03 0.65 0.82 1.01
South Africa 6.70 3.30 4.80 5.80 1.70 5.00 1.00 -2.30 -6.10 -1.40 0.90 2.70 4.60 2.80 4.50 4.30 3.90 2.30 1.20 3.10 1.60 3.60 1.20 1.80 1.70 4.30 1.80 5.30
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2019
U.S -0.90 4.60 5.20 2.00 3.20 2.70 1.60 0.50 0.60 2.20 2.80 1.80 1.20 3.10 3.20 2.30 2.20 4.20 3.40 2.20 2.40
China 1.50 1.80 1.80 1.90 2.00 1.70 1.80 1.50 1.30 1.90 1.80 1.70 1.40 1.80 1.70 1.50 1.50 1.70 1.60 1.50 1.40
Japan 0.81 -1.70 -0.04 0.69 1.24 0.13 0.09 -0.22 0.54 0.40 0.22 0.35 0.37 0.72 0.62 0.70 0.30 0.30 -0.60 0.50 0.70
Germany 0.88 -0.17 0.32 0.89 0.11 0.45 0.32 0.42 0.63 0.46 0.34 0.42 0.89 0.63 0.82 0.40 0.50 0.60 -0.20 - 0.30
U.K 0.86 0.85 0.76 0.76 0.34 0.57 0.42 0.73 0.21 0.48 0.54 0.75 0.30 0.30 0.39 0.20 0.10 0.40 0.70 0.20 0.20
France 0.07 0.21 0.54 0.02 0.38 -0.01 0.39 0.27 0.57 -0.06 0.13 0.53 0.56 0.62 0.56 0.50 0.40 0.50 0.30 0.30 0.40
India 1.19 2.32 1.90 1.51 1.77 2.20 2.05 1.76 2.39 1.52 1.51 1.51 1.40 1.45 1.64 1.90 1.90 2.00 1.80 1.50 1.50
Italy 0.03 -0.08 0.21 0.14 0.18 0.39 0.26 0.34 0.28 0.11 0.20 0.44 0.54 0.34 0.36 0.40 0.30 0.30 -0.10 -0.10 0.20
Brazil 0.22 -0.73 -0.02 0.39 -1.09 -2.26 -1.36 -0.94 -0.70 -0.57 -0.49 -0.69 1.31 0.68 0.15 0.60 - 0.10 0.50 0.10 0.60
Canada 0.12 1.20 0.73 0.45 -0.20 -0.14 0.57 0.10 0.62 -0.26 1.05 0.56 0.91 1.05 0.42 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.50 0.10 0.60
South Africa -1.60 1.00 2.60 4.40 1.70 -2.30 - 0.40 -1.00 3.20 0.90 0.30 -0.30 3.00 2.80 3.40 -2.70 -0.50 2.60 1.40 1.30
BarclaysForecasts
2017 Q1 - 2018 Q4
Zuma to Ramaphosa
2018
Commodity Drop
2015 Q1 - 2015 Q2
2014 2015 2016 2017
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2008 Q1 - 2009 Q1
Global Financial Crisis
2012 2013
2011 Q3 - 2013 Q1
European Crisis
48
Copyright © PSG
15
2
6
5
4
2
2
3
4
6
1
1
2
1
6
4
3
1
1
1
5
5
4
2
4
11
1
2
3
4
7
1
1
1
4
5
5
1
1
4
4
6
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Rate(%)
December
March
Fed Dot Plot
December 2018 vs March 2019
Longer Term Longer Term
Longer Term
49
Copyright © PSG
Fed Funds Target Rate
Fed Funds Target Rate at for 2020
Source : I-Net Bridge
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
FedFundstarget% Current
2.5%
2019E
2.625%%
2020E
2.625%%
50
Copyright © PSG
Misery Index & Interest Rates
Developed Markets As at End Apr-19
Source : Trading Economics
Country Interest Rate Inflation Rate Unemployment Rate Real GDP Change Misery Index
United States 2.50% 1.90% 3.60% 2.20% 5.80%
United Kingdom 0.75% 1.90% 3.90% 0.20% 6.35%
Euro Area 0.00% 1.70% 7.70% 0.20% 9.20%
Germany 0.00% 2.00% 3.20% 0.00% 5.20%
France 0.00% 1.20% 8.80% 0.30% 9.70%
Japan -0.10% 0.50% 2.50% 0.50% 2.40%
China 4.35% 2.00% 3.80% 1.50% 8.65%
51
Copyright © PSG
Misery Index & Interest Rates
Developed Markets in As at End Apr-19
Source : Trading Economics
36.95%
5.80% 6.35%
9.20%
5.20%
9.70%
2.40%
8.65%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
South Africa United States United
Kingdom
Euro Area Germany France Japan China
Interest Rate (negative) Inflation Rate Unemployment Rate Real GDP Change Misery Index
52
Copyright © PSG
Interest Rate Forecast
As at Q4 2018
Source : SARB
53
Copyright © PSG
Gold ($/Oz): 1283.40
Brent Oil (S/Barrel): 71.65
Platinum ($/Oz) : 897.94
Copper ($/Tonne): 6442
Coal ($/Tonne): 68.31
Commodity prices – Good month for Oil
10 Years to End Apr-19
Source : I-Net Bridge
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19
Gold ($/oz) Brent Oil ($/barrel) Platinum ($/oz) Copper ($/tonne) Coal ($/tonne)
Month YTD 12-Month 5-Years (Ann) 10-Years (Ann)
Gold ($/oz) -2.39% -2.14% -2.50% 0.12% 3.46%
Brent Oil ($/barrel) 1.76% 10.62% -2.62% -8.92% 3.76%
Platinum ($/oz) -3.03% 3.41% -9.11% -9.82% -2.85%
Copper ($/tonne) -0.78% 5.48% -2.99% -0.46% 4.86%
Coal ($/tonne) -9.37% -20.01% -19.96% -0.41% 2.33%
54
Copyright © PSG
Commodity prices in ZAR
Month YTD 12-Month 5-Years (Ann) 10-Years (Ann)
Gold -1.98% 4.95% 11.81% 6.21% 9.36%
Oil 4.60% 26.60% 10.12% -1.99% 9.13%
Platinum 4.79% 18.57% 13.72% -3.05% 3.23%
Copper -1.98% 13.12% 8.99% 5.44% 9.23%
Coal -5.65% -17.43% -17.57% 4.00% 6.44%
10 Years to End Apr-19
Source : I-Net Bridge
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19
Gold Oil Platinum Copper Coal
55
Copyright © PSG
CBEO Volatility Index : VIX©
Volatility decreased in Apr-19
Source : I-Net Bridge
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
VIXIndexLevel
Mean : 18.63
Std Dev : 8.33
13.12
56
Copyright © PSG
SA Volatility Index : SAVI©
Volatility decreased in Apr-19
Source : I-Net Bridge
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
10
15
20
25
30
35
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
SAVI +1 Std Dev -1 Std Dev Average PSG Wealth Creator FoF - 5 Year Subsequent
Mean : 21.76
Std Dev : 6.48
15.43
57
Copyright © PSG
85
100
115
130
145
Apr-90
Apr-91
Apr-92
Apr-93
Apr-94
Apr-95
Apr-96
Apr-97
Apr-98
Apr-99
Apr-00
Apr-01
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
SACCIIndex
SA Chamber of Commerce & Industry: SACCI©
Business confidence is low which means opportunities are out there
Source : I-Net Bridge
Rubicon Speech
Civil War Fears
GFC
Now
58
Copyright © PSG
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
Apr-90
Apr-91
Apr-92
Apr-93
Apr-94
Apr-95
Apr-96
Apr-97
Apr-98
Apr-99
Apr-00
Apr-01
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
ConsumerConfidenceIndex
FNB Consumer Confidence Index™
FNB/BER decreased in Apr-19
Source : I-Net Bridge
59
Copyright © PSG
RMB Business Confidence Index™
RMB/BER decreased in Apr-19
Source : I-Net Bridge
10
25
40
55
70
85
Apr-90
Apr-91
Apr-92
Apr-93
Apr-94
Apr-95
Apr-96
Apr-97
Apr-98
Apr-99
Apr-00
Apr-01
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Apr-19
BusinessConfidenceIndex
60
Copyright © PSG
US “Misery Index”
US Misery Index increased in Apr-19
Source : I-Net Bridge
4
6
8
10
12
14
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
USMiseryIndex
61
Copyright © PSG
Eurozone “Misery Index”
Eurozone Misery Index decreased in Apr-19
Source : I-Net Bridge
8
10
12
14
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
EuroMisery
62
Copyright © PSG
South African “Misery Index”
SA Misery Index increased in Apr-19
Source : I-Net Bridge
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
SAMiseryIndex
House view slides wix test

More Related Content

What's hot

Loan against shares
Loan against sharesLoan against shares
Loan against shares
ajay suryawanshi
 
HGSL 1QFY18
HGSL 1QFY18HGSL 1QFY18
HGSL 1QFY18
Mohit Jn
 
Indigo stock recommendation
Indigo stock recommendation Indigo stock recommendation
Indigo stock recommendation
Ravikiran Komarraju
 
Majesco 1QFY18
Majesco 1QFY18Majesco 1QFY18
Majesco 1QFY18
Mohit Jn
 
ENIL 1QFY18
ENIL 1QFY18ENIL 1QFY18
ENIL 1QFY18
Mohit Jn
 
SMS CO., LTD. FY03-17 Presentation material for IR
SMS CO., LTD. FY03-17 Presentation material for IRSMS CO., LTD. FY03-17 Presentation material for IR
SMS CO., LTD. FY03-17 Presentation material for IR
smsir
 
CFA Challenge 2018
CFA Challenge 2018CFA Challenge 2018
CFA Challenge 2018
Kyle Zupke
 
CFA Research Challenge 2018
CFA Research Challenge 2018CFA Research Challenge 2018
CFA Research Challenge 2018
Kyle Zupke
 
Budget brief 2014
Budget brief 2014Budget brief 2014
Budget brief 2014
Azhar Ansari
 
Rio Tinto Mongolia
Rio Tinto MongoliaRio Tinto Mongolia
Kerry logisticsnetwork 2018-interim_results-1
Kerry logisticsnetwork 2018-interim_results-1Kerry logisticsnetwork 2018-interim_results-1
Kerry logisticsnetwork 2018-interim_results-1
Shaen PD
 
Infomedia (IFM) - equity research initiation report
Infomedia (IFM) - equity research initiation reportInfomedia (IFM) - equity research initiation report
Infomedia (IFM) - equity research initiation report
George Gabriel
 
SMS CO., LTD. FY03-18 1H Presentation material for IR
SMS CO., LTD. FY03-18 1H Presentation material for IRSMS CO., LTD. FY03-18 1H Presentation material for IR
SMS CO., LTD. FY03-18 1H Presentation material for IR
smsir
 
Grant Thornton/ICAEW Business Confidence Monitor Q2 2014
Grant Thornton/ICAEW Business Confidence Monitor Q2 2014Grant Thornton/ICAEW Business Confidence Monitor Q2 2014
Grant Thornton/ICAEW Business Confidence Monitor Q2 2014
Grant Thornton UK LLP
 
Rr q1 17_presentation_final
Rr q1 17_presentation_finalRr q1 17_presentation_final
Rr q1 17_presentation_final
Ramirent Group
 
Oil & Gas - M&A Transactions Summary
Oil & Gas -  M&A Transactions SummaryOil & Gas -  M&A Transactions Summary
Oil & Gas - M&A Transactions Summary
Alps Venture Partners
 
Hays Oil & Gas Global Job Index Q2 2014
Hays Oil & Gas Global Job Index Q2 2014Hays Oil & Gas Global Job Index Q2 2014
Hays Oil & Gas Global Job Index Q2 2014
Hays Netherlands
 

What's hot (19)

Loan against shares
Loan against sharesLoan against shares
Loan against shares
 
HGSL 1QFY18
HGSL 1QFY18HGSL 1QFY18
HGSL 1QFY18
 
Indigo stock recommendation
Indigo stock recommendation Indigo stock recommendation
Indigo stock recommendation
 
Majesco 1QFY18
Majesco 1QFY18Majesco 1QFY18
Majesco 1QFY18
 
ENIL 1QFY18
ENIL 1QFY18ENIL 1QFY18
ENIL 1QFY18
 
SMS CO., LTD. FY03-17 Presentation material for IR
SMS CO., LTD. FY03-17 Presentation material for IRSMS CO., LTD. FY03-17 Presentation material for IR
SMS CO., LTD. FY03-17 Presentation material for IR
 
CFA Challenge 2018
CFA Challenge 2018CFA Challenge 2018
CFA Challenge 2018
 
CFA Research Challenge 2018
CFA Research Challenge 2018CFA Research Challenge 2018
CFA Research Challenge 2018
 
Budget brief 2014
Budget brief 2014Budget brief 2014
Budget brief 2014
 
Rio Tinto Mongolia
Rio Tinto MongoliaRio Tinto Mongolia
Rio Tinto Mongolia
 
CRU Group
CRU GroupCRU Group
CRU Group
 
Kerry logisticsnetwork 2018-interim_results-1
Kerry logisticsnetwork 2018-interim_results-1Kerry logisticsnetwork 2018-interim_results-1
Kerry logisticsnetwork 2018-interim_results-1
 
Infomedia (IFM) - equity research initiation report
Infomedia (IFM) - equity research initiation reportInfomedia (IFM) - equity research initiation report
Infomedia (IFM) - equity research initiation report
 
SMS CO., LTD. FY03-18 1H Presentation material for IR
SMS CO., LTD. FY03-18 1H Presentation material for IRSMS CO., LTD. FY03-18 1H Presentation material for IR
SMS CO., LTD. FY03-18 1H Presentation material for IR
 
Grant Thornton/ICAEW Business Confidence Monitor Q2 2014
Grant Thornton/ICAEW Business Confidence Monitor Q2 2014Grant Thornton/ICAEW Business Confidence Monitor Q2 2014
Grant Thornton/ICAEW Business Confidence Monitor Q2 2014
 
Rr q1 17_presentation_final
Rr q1 17_presentation_finalRr q1 17_presentation_final
Rr q1 17_presentation_final
 
NIIT Tech Ltd
NIIT Tech LtdNIIT Tech Ltd
NIIT Tech Ltd
 
Oil & Gas - M&A Transactions Summary
Oil & Gas -  M&A Transactions SummaryOil & Gas -  M&A Transactions Summary
Oil & Gas - M&A Transactions Summary
 
Hays Oil & Gas Global Job Index Q2 2014
Hays Oil & Gas Global Job Index Q2 2014Hays Oil & Gas Global Job Index Q2 2014
Hays Oil & Gas Global Job Index Q2 2014
 

Similar to House view slides wix test

AFC Vietnam Fund Presentation 2015.04.09
AFC Vietnam Fund Presentation 2015.04.09AFC Vietnam Fund Presentation 2015.04.09
AFC Vietnam Fund Presentation 2015.04.09Thomas Hugger
 
Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia Update
Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia UpdateRegional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia Update
Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia Update
Roozbeh Molavi
 
Investec, Senate group
Investec, Senate groupInvestec, Senate group
Investec, Senate group
Senate Group Financial Advisors
 
South Africa trapped in low growth cycle hurt by inept politics
South Africa trapped in low growth cycle hurt by inept politics South Africa trapped in low growth cycle hurt by inept politics
South Africa trapped in low growth cycle hurt by inept politics
STANLIB
 
Iran’s Capital Markets - the outlook and respective drivers
Iran’s Capital Markets  - the outlook and respective driversIran’s Capital Markets  - the outlook and respective drivers
Iran’s Capital Markets - the outlook and respective drivers
Griffon Capital
 
Anchor Capital presentation
Anchor Capital presentationAnchor Capital presentation
Anchor Capital presentation
Senate Group Financial Advisors
 
Oecd amro s2 01_thailand dr porametee vimolsiri
Oecd amro s2 01_thailand dr porametee vimolsiriOecd amro s2 01_thailand dr porametee vimolsiri
Oecd amro s2 01_thailand dr porametee vimolsiri
OECD Development Centre, Paris
 
DSP India T.I.G.E.R. Fund
DSP India T.I.G.E.R. FundDSP India T.I.G.E.R. Fund
DSP India T.I.G.E.R. Fund
DSP Mutual Fund
 
DSP India T.I.G.E.R. Fund Presentation.pdf
DSP India T.I.G.E.R. Fund Presentation.pdfDSP India T.I.G.E.R. Fund Presentation.pdf
DSP India T.I.G.E.R. Fund Presentation.pdf
DSP Mutual Fund
 
4Q 2018 EMEA ISG Index™
4Q 2018 EMEA ISG Index™4Q 2018 EMEA ISG Index™
4Q 2018 EMEA ISG Index™
Information Services Group (ISG)
 
China ETF Investment Fund Raise Marketing
China ETF Investment Fund Raise MarketingChina ETF Investment Fund Raise Marketing
China ETF Investment Fund Raise Marketing
Fox Design
 
Element, Senate group - sk,ab final
Element, Senate group - sk,ab finalElement, Senate group - sk,ab final
Element, Senate group - sk,ab final
Senate Group Financial Advisors
 
Monthly Market Outlook - May 2019
Monthly Market Outlook - May 2019Monthly Market Outlook - May 2019
Monthly Market Outlook - May 2019
iciciprumf
 
Industrial investments worldwide 2019
Industrial investments worldwide 2019Industrial investments worldwide 2019
Industrial investments worldwide 2019
Trendeo
 
AFC Vietnam Fund Presentation 10.7.2018
AFC Vietnam Fund Presentation 10.7.2018AFC Vietnam Fund Presentation 10.7.2018
AFC Vietnam Fund Presentation 10.7.2018
Thomas Hugger
 
Senate group investec equity legal_16 march f 2018
Senate group investec equity legal_16 march f 2018Senate group investec equity legal_16 march f 2018
Senate group investec equity legal_16 march f 2018
Senate Group Financial Advisors
 
Prescient
PrescientPrescient
IDFC Emerging Businesses Fund_Fund presentation
IDFC Emerging Businesses Fund_Fund presentationIDFC Emerging Businesses Fund_Fund presentation
IDFC Emerging Businesses Fund_Fund presentation
IDFCJUBI
 
4Q 2018 Global ISG Index™
4Q 2018 Global ISG Index™4Q 2018 Global ISG Index™
4Q 2018 Global ISG Index™
Information Services Group (ISG)
 

Similar to House view slides wix test (20)

AFC Vietnam Fund Presentation 2015.04.09
AFC Vietnam Fund Presentation 2015.04.09AFC Vietnam Fund Presentation 2015.04.09
AFC Vietnam Fund Presentation 2015.04.09
 
Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia Update
Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia UpdateRegional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia Update
Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia Update
 
Investec, Senate group
Investec, Senate groupInvestec, Senate group
Investec, Senate group
 
South Africa trapped in low growth cycle hurt by inept politics
South Africa trapped in low growth cycle hurt by inept politics South Africa trapped in low growth cycle hurt by inept politics
South Africa trapped in low growth cycle hurt by inept politics
 
Iran’s Capital Markets - the outlook and respective drivers
Iran’s Capital Markets  - the outlook and respective driversIran’s Capital Markets  - the outlook and respective drivers
Iran’s Capital Markets - the outlook and respective drivers
 
Anchor Capital presentation
Anchor Capital presentationAnchor Capital presentation
Anchor Capital presentation
 
Oecd amro s2 01_thailand dr porametee vimolsiri
Oecd amro s2 01_thailand dr porametee vimolsiriOecd amro s2 01_thailand dr porametee vimolsiri
Oecd amro s2 01_thailand dr porametee vimolsiri
 
DSP India T.I.G.E.R. Fund
DSP India T.I.G.E.R. FundDSP India T.I.G.E.R. Fund
DSP India T.I.G.E.R. Fund
 
DSP India T.I.G.E.R. Fund Presentation.pdf
DSP India T.I.G.E.R. Fund Presentation.pdfDSP India T.I.G.E.R. Fund Presentation.pdf
DSP India T.I.G.E.R. Fund Presentation.pdf
 
4Q 2018 EMEA ISG Index™
4Q 2018 EMEA ISG Index™4Q 2018 EMEA ISG Index™
4Q 2018 EMEA ISG Index™
 
China ETF Investment Fund Raise Marketing
China ETF Investment Fund Raise MarketingChina ETF Investment Fund Raise Marketing
China ETF Investment Fund Raise Marketing
 
Element, Senate group - sk,ab final
Element, Senate group - sk,ab finalElement, Senate group - sk,ab final
Element, Senate group - sk,ab final
 
Monthly Market Outlook - May 2019
Monthly Market Outlook - May 2019Monthly Market Outlook - May 2019
Monthly Market Outlook - May 2019
 
Industrial investments worldwide 2019
Industrial investments worldwide 2019Industrial investments worldwide 2019
Industrial investments worldwide 2019
 
AFC Vietnam Fund Presentation 10.7.2018
AFC Vietnam Fund Presentation 10.7.2018AFC Vietnam Fund Presentation 10.7.2018
AFC Vietnam Fund Presentation 10.7.2018
 
Senate group investec equity legal_16 march f 2018
Senate group investec equity legal_16 march f 2018Senate group investec equity legal_16 march f 2018
Senate group investec equity legal_16 march f 2018
 
Prescient
PrescientPrescient
Prescient
 
IDFC Emerging Businesses Fund_Fund presentation
IDFC Emerging Businesses Fund_Fund presentationIDFC Emerging Businesses Fund_Fund presentation
IDFC Emerging Businesses Fund_Fund presentation
 
Investec Asset Management 13 march 2014
Investec Asset Management 13 march 2014Investec Asset Management 13 march 2014
Investec Asset Management 13 march 2014
 
4Q 2018 Global ISG Index™
4Q 2018 Global ISG Index™4Q 2018 Global ISG Index™
4Q 2018 Global ISG Index™
 

Recently uploaded

Set off and carry forward of losses and assessment of individuals.pptx
Set off and carry forward of losses and assessment of individuals.pptxSet off and carry forward of losses and assessment of individuals.pptx
Set off and carry forward of losses and assessment of individuals.pptx
HARSHITHV26
 
Taurus Zodiac Sign_ Personality Traits and Sign Dates.pptx
Taurus Zodiac Sign_ Personality Traits and Sign Dates.pptxTaurus Zodiac Sign_ Personality Traits and Sign Dates.pptx
Taurus Zodiac Sign_ Personality Traits and Sign Dates.pptx
my Pandit
 
chapter 10 - excise tax of transfer and business taxation
chapter 10 - excise tax of transfer and business taxationchapter 10 - excise tax of transfer and business taxation
chapter 10 - excise tax of transfer and business taxation
AUDIJEAngelo
 
Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey throu...
Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey throu...Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey throu...
Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey throu...
dylandmeas
 
Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdf
Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdfUnveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdf
Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdf
Sam H
 
falcon-invoice-discounting-a-premier-platform-for-investors-in-india
falcon-invoice-discounting-a-premier-platform-for-investors-in-indiafalcon-invoice-discounting-a-premier-platform-for-investors-in-india
falcon-invoice-discounting-a-premier-platform-for-investors-in-india
Falcon Invoice Discounting
 
FINAL PRESENTATION.pptx12143241324134134
FINAL PRESENTATION.pptx12143241324134134FINAL PRESENTATION.pptx12143241324134134
FINAL PRESENTATION.pptx12143241324134134
LR1709MUSIC
 
RMD24 | Debunking the non-endemic revenue myth Marvin Vacquier Droop | First ...
RMD24 | Debunking the non-endemic revenue myth Marvin Vacquier Droop | First ...RMD24 | Debunking the non-endemic revenue myth Marvin Vacquier Droop | First ...
RMD24 | Debunking the non-endemic revenue myth Marvin Vacquier Droop | First ...
BBPMedia1
 
Putting the SPARK into Virtual Training.pptx
Putting the SPARK into Virtual Training.pptxPutting the SPARK into Virtual Training.pptx
Putting the SPARK into Virtual Training.pptx
Cynthia Clay
 
PriyoShop Celebration Pohela Falgun Mar 20, 2024
PriyoShop Celebration Pohela Falgun Mar 20, 2024PriyoShop Celebration Pohela Falgun Mar 20, 2024
PriyoShop Celebration Pohela Falgun Mar 20, 2024
PriyoShop.com LTD
 
Premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions for Modern Businesses
Premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions for Modern BusinessesPremium MEAN Stack Development Solutions for Modern Businesses
Premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions for Modern Businesses
SynapseIndia
 
Lookback Analysis
Lookback AnalysisLookback Analysis
Lookback Analysis
Safe PaaS
 
April 2024 Nostalgia Products Newsletter
April 2024 Nostalgia Products NewsletterApril 2024 Nostalgia Products Newsletter
April 2024 Nostalgia Products Newsletter
NathanBaughman3
 
Sustainability: Balancing the Environment, Equity & Economy
Sustainability: Balancing the Environment, Equity & EconomySustainability: Balancing the Environment, Equity & Economy
Sustainability: Balancing the Environment, Equity & Economy
Operational Excellence Consulting
 
一比一原版加拿大渥太华大学毕业证(uottawa毕业证书)如何办理
一比一原版加拿大渥太华大学毕业证(uottawa毕业证书)如何办理一比一原版加拿大渥太华大学毕业证(uottawa毕业证书)如何办理
一比一原版加拿大渥太华大学毕业证(uottawa毕业证书)如何办理
taqyed
 
Buy Verified PayPal Account | Buy Google 5 Star Reviews
Buy Verified PayPal Account | Buy Google 5 Star ReviewsBuy Verified PayPal Account | Buy Google 5 Star Reviews
Buy Verified PayPal Account | Buy Google 5 Star Reviews
usawebmarket
 
20240425_ TJ Communications Credentials_compressed.pdf
20240425_ TJ Communications Credentials_compressed.pdf20240425_ TJ Communications Credentials_compressed.pdf
20240425_ TJ Communications Credentials_compressed.pdf
tjcomstrang
 
Cree_Rey_BrandIdentityKit.PDF_PersonalBd
Cree_Rey_BrandIdentityKit.PDF_PersonalBdCree_Rey_BrandIdentityKit.PDF_PersonalBd
Cree_Rey_BrandIdentityKit.PDF_PersonalBd
creerey
 
India Orthopedic Devices Market: Unlocking Growth Secrets, Trends and Develop...
India Orthopedic Devices Market: Unlocking Growth Secrets, Trends and Develop...India Orthopedic Devices Market: Unlocking Growth Secrets, Trends and Develop...
India Orthopedic Devices Market: Unlocking Growth Secrets, Trends and Develop...
Kumar Satyam
 
Cracking the Workplace Discipline Code Main.pptx
Cracking the Workplace Discipline Code Main.pptxCracking the Workplace Discipline Code Main.pptx
Cracking the Workplace Discipline Code Main.pptx
Workforce Group
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Set off and carry forward of losses and assessment of individuals.pptx
Set off and carry forward of losses and assessment of individuals.pptxSet off and carry forward of losses and assessment of individuals.pptx
Set off and carry forward of losses and assessment of individuals.pptx
 
Taurus Zodiac Sign_ Personality Traits and Sign Dates.pptx
Taurus Zodiac Sign_ Personality Traits and Sign Dates.pptxTaurus Zodiac Sign_ Personality Traits and Sign Dates.pptx
Taurus Zodiac Sign_ Personality Traits and Sign Dates.pptx
 
chapter 10 - excise tax of transfer and business taxation
chapter 10 - excise tax of transfer and business taxationchapter 10 - excise tax of transfer and business taxation
chapter 10 - excise tax of transfer and business taxation
 
Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey throu...
Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey throu...Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey throu...
Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey throu...
 
Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdf
Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdfUnveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdf
Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdf
 
falcon-invoice-discounting-a-premier-platform-for-investors-in-india
falcon-invoice-discounting-a-premier-platform-for-investors-in-indiafalcon-invoice-discounting-a-premier-platform-for-investors-in-india
falcon-invoice-discounting-a-premier-platform-for-investors-in-india
 
FINAL PRESENTATION.pptx12143241324134134
FINAL PRESENTATION.pptx12143241324134134FINAL PRESENTATION.pptx12143241324134134
FINAL PRESENTATION.pptx12143241324134134
 
RMD24 | Debunking the non-endemic revenue myth Marvin Vacquier Droop | First ...
RMD24 | Debunking the non-endemic revenue myth Marvin Vacquier Droop | First ...RMD24 | Debunking the non-endemic revenue myth Marvin Vacquier Droop | First ...
RMD24 | Debunking the non-endemic revenue myth Marvin Vacquier Droop | First ...
 
Putting the SPARK into Virtual Training.pptx
Putting the SPARK into Virtual Training.pptxPutting the SPARK into Virtual Training.pptx
Putting the SPARK into Virtual Training.pptx
 
PriyoShop Celebration Pohela Falgun Mar 20, 2024
PriyoShop Celebration Pohela Falgun Mar 20, 2024PriyoShop Celebration Pohela Falgun Mar 20, 2024
PriyoShop Celebration Pohela Falgun Mar 20, 2024
 
Premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions for Modern Businesses
Premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions for Modern BusinessesPremium MEAN Stack Development Solutions for Modern Businesses
Premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions for Modern Businesses
 
Lookback Analysis
Lookback AnalysisLookback Analysis
Lookback Analysis
 
April 2024 Nostalgia Products Newsletter
April 2024 Nostalgia Products NewsletterApril 2024 Nostalgia Products Newsletter
April 2024 Nostalgia Products Newsletter
 
Sustainability: Balancing the Environment, Equity & Economy
Sustainability: Balancing the Environment, Equity & EconomySustainability: Balancing the Environment, Equity & Economy
Sustainability: Balancing the Environment, Equity & Economy
 
一比一原版加拿大渥太华大学毕业证(uottawa毕业证书)如何办理
一比一原版加拿大渥太华大学毕业证(uottawa毕业证书)如何办理一比一原版加拿大渥太华大学毕业证(uottawa毕业证书)如何办理
一比一原版加拿大渥太华大学毕业证(uottawa毕业证书)如何办理
 
Buy Verified PayPal Account | Buy Google 5 Star Reviews
Buy Verified PayPal Account | Buy Google 5 Star ReviewsBuy Verified PayPal Account | Buy Google 5 Star Reviews
Buy Verified PayPal Account | Buy Google 5 Star Reviews
 
20240425_ TJ Communications Credentials_compressed.pdf
20240425_ TJ Communications Credentials_compressed.pdf20240425_ TJ Communications Credentials_compressed.pdf
20240425_ TJ Communications Credentials_compressed.pdf
 
Cree_Rey_BrandIdentityKit.PDF_PersonalBd
Cree_Rey_BrandIdentityKit.PDF_PersonalBdCree_Rey_BrandIdentityKit.PDF_PersonalBd
Cree_Rey_BrandIdentityKit.PDF_PersonalBd
 
India Orthopedic Devices Market: Unlocking Growth Secrets, Trends and Develop...
India Orthopedic Devices Market: Unlocking Growth Secrets, Trends and Develop...India Orthopedic Devices Market: Unlocking Growth Secrets, Trends and Develop...
India Orthopedic Devices Market: Unlocking Growth Secrets, Trends and Develop...
 
Cracking the Workplace Discipline Code Main.pptx
Cracking the Workplace Discipline Code Main.pptxCracking the Workplace Discipline Code Main.pptx
Cracking the Workplace Discipline Code Main.pptx
 

House view slides wix test

  • 1. Copyright © PSG PSG Wealth Investment Houseviews Adriaan Pask, PhD Chief Investment Officer April 2019
  • 2. 2 Contents Copyright © PSG Contents 01 | Main themes and messages Copyright © PSG 06 | Bonds 05 | Cash 13 | Job bucket 07 | Preference shares 02 | Economic review 03 | Financial market review 04 | Tactical overview 08 | Property 10 |Currencies 11 | Article bucket 09 | Equity
  • 3. Page 3 00| Main themes and messages
  • 4. Page 4  Many reasons to be positive about domestic opportunities  Lower sentiment create attractive entry points to certain asset classes  Don’t think of the domestic investment environment as negative, rather as opportunity rich Client message 2019 – Positive domestic opportunities
  • 5. Page 5 A| Rich opportunity locally
  • 6. 6 Copyright © PSG -3.8% -0.7% -0.7% -0.6% 0.2% 1.7% 2.7% 4.5% 7.7% 7.9% -14% -9% -4% 1% 6% 11% Agriculture Transport Manufacturing Finance Personal services Electricity Government Construction Trade Mining Industry growth Rates in Q4 :2018 Quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted and annualised GDP 1,4% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 14/Q1 14/Q2 14/Q3 14/Q4 15/Q1 15/Q2 15/Q3 15/Q4 16/Q1 16/Q2 16/Q3 16/Q4 17/Q1 17/Q2 17/Q3 17/Q4 18/Q1 18/Q2 18/Q3 18/Q4 Quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted and annualised Primary Sector Secondary Sector Tertiary Sector 3.0% 1.7% -1.1% 0,2 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,1 0,0 -0,1 0,0 -0,1 -0,3 LHS : growth rates RHS : contributions 0,7 0,2 1. Primary sectors are recovering Declining in the mining industry contributed to negative growth in the primary sector in Q4 : 2018​ Source : STATS SA
  • 7. 7 Copyright © PSG -4.8% -1.7% -1.2% 0.6% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.3% 1.6% 1.8% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Year-on-year Primary Sector Secondary Sector Tertiary Sector 0.1% 0.9% -0.2% 0,4 0,1 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,1 0,0 -0,1 -0,1 LHS : growth rates RHS : contributions Finance Transport Government Personal services Manufacturing Electricity Trade Construction Mining Agriculture Industry growth rates in 2018 GDP 0,8% Declining in the agriculture industry contributed to negative growth in the primary sector in 2018​ Source : STATS SA
  • 8. 8 Copyright © PSG Primary Sector -1.1% Secondary Sector 3.0% Tertiary Sector 1.7% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% Growth value added Q-o-Q% Lower production in mining of gold and ‘other’ mining and quarrying (-3.8% vs -8.9% previously) contributed to low primary sector in Q4 2018 Primary Sector Secondary Sector Tertiary Sector 4.5% 6.8% -5.9% -10.1% 21.1% -4.8% 4.0% -1.7% 3.3% -3.9% 4.2% -1.7% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Contractions recorded in agriculture (-4.8% vs 21.1% previously), mining (-1.7% vs - 4.2% ) Year-on-year Agriculture Mining Contractions were primarily recorded in internal trade, public administration and mining​ Source : STATS SA
  • 9. 9 Copyright © PSG 2. Midcap revenues are improving FTSE/JSE Top 40 Forecast – MidCap Revenue Growth Source : I-Net Bridge 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 FTSE/JSE Top40 Forecast
  • 10. 10 Copyright © PSG Source : Bloomberg 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 12-monthforwardblendedP/E 12m Blended Forward P/E 12m Blended Forward P/E (Excl. Top 5) Average Average (Excl. Top 5) 2 Std Dev Above/Below (Excl. Top 5) 3. Stocks hammered by “colder weather” offer great entry points ALSI 12-month Forward Blended P/E
  • 11. 11 Copyright © PSG Source : Bloomberg 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 12-monthforwardblendedP/E CAPE 12m Blended Forward P/E CAPE 12m Blended Forward P/E (Excl. Top 5) Average Average (Excl. Top 5) ALSI 12-month Forward Blended CAPE P/E
  • 12. 12 Copyright © PSG Source : PSG Wealth Research Team 0 200 400 600 800 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Realearnings CAPE12mBlendedForwardP/Eratio CAPE 12m Blended Forward P/E Real Earnings 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Realearnings Realprice Real price Real Earnings FTSE/JSE All Share Real Earnings vs Real Price
  • 13. 13 Copyright © PSG Source : Bloomberg 0 5 10 15 20 25 REINET INVESTMEN ABSA GROUP LTD MMI HOLDINGS LTD LIBERTY HLDGS OLD MUTUAL LTD ZEDER INVESTMENT NEDBANK GROUP INVESTEC PLC INVESTEC LTD ALEXANDER FORBES PEREGRINE HOLD STANDARD BANK GR REMGRO LTD RAND MERCHANT IN RMB HOLDINGS LTD JSE LTD CORONAT FIRSTRAND LTD QUILTER PLC TRANSACTION CAPT DISCOVERY LTD SANLAM LTD SANTAM LTD PSG GROUP LTD PSG KONSULT LTD CAPITEC BANK HOL BEst P/E BEst P/E’s in Financial Sector for End Apr-19
  • 14. 14 Copyright © PSG Source : PSG Wealth Research Team 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 Yield NC3MM (CL) BF912 (CL) 4. Interest rates will probably remain stable for the rest of the year ZAR FRA 9x12 & 3 month NCD​
  • 15. 15 Copyright © PSG SA Equity Market underperformed Global Equities in Dollar terms Source : I-Net Bridge 12-Month Performance MSCI Emerging ($) : -7.32% MSCI World ($) : 4.42% FTSE/JSE All Share Index ($) : -12.42% 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 MSCI Emerging ($) MSCI World ($) FTSE/JSE All Share (US$) Month YTD 12-Month 2-Years (Ann) 3-Years (Ann) 5-Years (Ann) MSCI Emerging ($) 2.00% 2.79% -7.32% 5.04% 8.69% 1.63% MSCI World ($) 3.37% -100.00% 4.42% 7.68% 9.23% 5.24% FTSE/JSE All Share $ 5.05% 0.11% -12.42% 0.80% 3.17% -2.51%
  • 16. 16 Copyright © PSG 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 3M 2Y 3Y 5Y 6Y 10Y 15Y 20Y 25Y 30Y Yield Residual Maturity South Africa Yield Curve (7 May 2019) 1M ago 6M ago 5. South African bond returns should support equities South Africa Yield Curve – 7 May-19 Source : World Government Bonds
  • 17. 17 Copyright © PSG Source : PSG Wealth Research Team 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Apr-95 Apr-96 Apr-97 Apr-98 Apr-99 Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 USD/ZAR vs S&P 500 Index (USD Cumulative Returns) USD/ZAR Cumulative Returns S&P 500 (USD) Cumulative Returns 100 200 300 400 500 Apr-95 Apr-96 Apr-97 Apr-98 Apr-99 Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 USD/ZAR vs MSCI World Index (USD Cumulative Returns) USD/ZAR Cumulative Returns MSCI World Index (USD) Cumulative Returns 6. South Africans are better shielded from corrections in offshore markets
  • 18. 18 Copyright © PSG 36.95% 5.80% 6.35% 9.20% 5.20% 9.70% 2.40% 8.65% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% South Africa United States United Kingdom Euro Area Germany France Japan China Interest Rate (negative) Inflation Rate Unemployment Rate Real GDP Change Misery Index 7. Sentiment is poor South Africa is one of the most miserable countries in the world Source : Trading Economics
  • 19. 19 Copyright © PSG Source : Trading Economics 0 5 10 15 20 25 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 South African Inflation Rate 4.5% 8. Inflation is relatively low and reasonably stable And the hurdle for generating inflation beating returns too
  • 20. 20 Copyright © PSG Source : Trading Economics 0 3 6 9 12 15 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 South African Inflation Rate Record Low in 2004 4.5% Inflation rate in South Africa averaged 9.02% from 1968 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 20.07% in January 1686 and a record low of 0.2% in 2004​
  • 21. 21 Copyright © PSG Source : Bloomberg 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 LeadingIndex GDP% Real GDP Growth Y/Y% SARB Business Cycle Leading Indicator (RH Scale) 9. SARB business cycle leading indicator is projecting a significant improvement in growth
  • 22. Page 22 B| Diversification yielding higher benefits
  • 23. 23 Copyright © PSG Reliability …Something that can help build trust Source : Morningstar
  • 24. 24 Copyright © PSG Risk management …Knowing when to act Source : Morningstar
  • 25. 25 Copyright © PSG Risk management …Knowing when to act Source : Morningstar
  • 26. Page 26 C| Risk that investors pose to themselves are higher than usual​
  • 27. 27 Copyright © PSG Mute the impact of emotions and client behavior Source : Morningstar -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 ExcessReturns% Millions Net Flows Excess Returns
  • 28. Page 28 Mute the impact of emotions and client behavior Risk of missing out on the “Best Days” Source : Morningstar Direct -150 0 150 300 450 600 750 900 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Index Month FTSE/JSE All Share TR FTSE/JSE All Share (Excl. 15 Best Days) 15.23% 6.51% 1.00% -3.47% -7.25% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Invested since Inception Best 25 days missed Best 50 days missed Best 75 days missed Best 100 days missed FTSE/JSEAllShareDifferenceinreturns
  • 29. 29 Copyright © PSG 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2009Q2 2010Q2 2011Q2 2012Q2 2013Q2 2014Q2 2015Q2 2016Q2 2017Q2 Emigrationsellingofresidentialproperty PSGWCreatorFoFSubsequent South Africa - Emigration selling of residential property PSG Wealth Creator FoF 5-Year subsequent Source : PSG Wealth Research Team Date Total Emigration Subsequent 5-Year January 2009 8.20% 20.68% January 2010 7.00% 16.53% January 2011 4.80% 12.45% January 2012 4.50% 12.90% January 2013 3.50% 11.48% January 2014 4.50% 4.86% January 2015 4.30% 4.86% January 2016 5.20% 13.12% January 2017 5.60% 17.35% January 2018 7.80% 20.68% Expected 5-Year Subsequent Emigration research PSG Wealth Creator FoF Subsequent vs SA Emigration of Residential Property
  • 30. 30 Copyright © PSG Fund Current Number of Funds Since Inception PSG Wealth Enhanced Interest Fund 31 1 PSG Wealth Income Fund 93 7 PSG Wealth Preserver FoF 155 7 PSG Wealth Moderate FoF 199 7 PSG Wealth Creator FoF 164 20 PSG Wealth Global Preserver FoF 124 7 PSG Wealth Global Moderate FoF 199 35 PSG Wealth Global Flexible FoF 181 4 PSG Wealth Global Creator FoF 1905 148 Source : PSG Wealth research Team *The Enhanced Interest Fund is ranked against money market funds and not the peer group as with our other solutions Source : PSG Wealth Research Team 1 PART We have great products with excellent track records Our solutions are built to ensure they outperform their peer group consistently over time​
  • 31. 31 Copyright © PSG Fund Number of Funds 1 Month Rank 3 Month Rank 6 Month Rank 1 Year Rank 2 Year Rank 3 Year Rank 4 Year Rank 5 Year Rank 6 Year Rank 7 Year Rank 8 Year Rank 9 Year Rank 10 Year Rank Since Inception Rank PSG Wealth Enhanced Interest Fund 31 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 PSG Wealth Income FoF 93 28 48 64 61 47 26 23 13 11 8 7 6 0 7 PSG Wealth Preserver FoF 155 51 83 97 83 64 39 22 17 10 5 6 7 0 7 PSG Wealth Moderate FoF 199 127 91 134 91 59 25 18 18 13 9 7 9 9 7 PSG Wealth Creator FoF 164 130 80 115 57 58 29 34 36 26 24 24 19 0 20 PSG Wealth Global Preserver FoF 124 49 52 55 21 29 12 4 5 4 2 3 4 0 7 PSG Wealth Global Moderate FoF 199 76 109 111 112 92 103 105 90 41 40 0 0 0 35 PSG Wealth Global Flexible FoF 181 19 22 7 8 8 7 6 8 7 4 4 3 0 4 PSG Wealth Global Creator FoF 1 905 469 195 208 110 129 139 75 78 118 0 0 0 0 148 Source : PSG Wealth Research Team 1 PART Key 1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile The PSG Wealth Enhanced Interest Fund and PSG Wealth Global Creator FoF delivered Top Quartile performance over all periods since inception​
  • 32. 32 Copyright © PSG 1 PART Our solutions are built to ensure they outperform their peer group consistently over time​ 1M 3M 6M 1YR 3YR 5YR 10 YR Enhanced Interest 0.68% 1.92% 3.94% 8.02% 8.09% 7.52% 0.00% Income 0.94% 2.19% 4.24% 7.45% 8.31% 8.14% 0.00% Preserver 1.81% 4.47% 4.88% 5.79% 6.23% 7.41% 0.00% Moderate 2.41% 7.05% 6.22% 4.79% 5.65% 7.09% 12.10% Creator 3.10% 7.56% 8.17% 2.58% 5.20% 5.46% 0.00% Global Preserver Feeder -0.20% 11.10% 1.28% 19.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Global Moderate Feeder 0.68% 12.75% 3.04% 16.11% 4.90% 8.49% 0.00% Global Flexible Feeder 1.36% 15.32% 6.93% 24.25% 8.66% 10.33% 0.00% Global Creator Feeder 2.82% 19.89% 9.28% 25.07% 12.04% 14.58% 0.00% Global Preserver (USD) 0.99% 2.75% 4.70% 3.81% 4.67% 3.46% 0.00% Global Moderate (USD) 1.79% 4.06% 5.92% 0.86% 4.65% 2.03% 0.00% Global Flexible (USD) 3.07% 6.78% 10.63% 8.83% 10.77% 6.96% 0.00% Global Moderate (USD) 1.79% 4.06% 5.92% 0.86% 4.65% 2.03% 0.00% Global Creator (USD) 4.07% 9.91% 11.57% 8.67% 11.78% 7.72% 0.00% Money Market 0.00% 1.15% 2.97% 6.65% 7.24% 6.92% 6.43% Income 0.72% 1.96% 4.31% 8.08% 8.47% 7.83% 0.00% Diversified Income 0.85% 1.86% 3.82% 6.46% 7.90% 7.68% 7.88% Stable 1.17% 1.71% 1.73% 2.24% 6.22% 6.90% 0.00% Balanced 1.62% 1.53% -1.48% -1.40% 5.08% 6.57% 12.39% Flexible 1.47% 2.18% -0.98% -0.64% 5.52% 7.41% 15.68% Equity 2.54% 1.40% -2.80% -4.84% 4.96% 5.05% 15.40% Global Flexible Feeder (ZAR) -1.11% 8.49% -3.44% 8.67% 5.96% 8.19% 0.00% Global Equity Feeder (ZAR) -0.93% 8.53% -3.67% 7.81% 7.47% 7.87% 0.00% Source: Morningstar Direct PSG WEALTH MULTI-MANAGED SOLUTIONS PSG ASSET MANAGEMENT FUNDS
  • 33. 33 Copyright © PSG SARB Indicators SARB Business Cycle Indicators Index Level (Jan 2015=100) Source : I-Net Bridge 85 90 95 100 105 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Indexvalue Leading Indicator Coincident Indicator Lagging Indicator FTSE/JSE All Share Index
  • 34. 34 Copyright © PSG Source : I-Net Bridge Relative Strength Index (RSI) of Business Cycle Indicators (Jan 2015=100)​ 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Apr-00 Oct-00 Apr-01 Oct-01 Apr-02 Oct-02 Apr-03 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 RSIofIndexLevel[Jan2015=100] Leading Indicator Coincident Indicator Lagging Indicator
  • 35. 35 Copyright © PSG CBEO Volatility Index : VIX© Volatility decreased in Apr-19 Source : I-Net Bridge 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 VIXIndexLevel Mean : 18.63 Std Dev : 8.33 13.12
  • 39. 39 Copyright © PSG RMB Business Confidence Index™ RMB/BER decreased in Apr-19 Source : I-Net Bridge 10 25 40 55 70 85 Apr-90 Apr-91 Apr-92 Apr-93 Apr-94 Apr-95 Apr-96 Apr-97 Apr-98 Apr-99 Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 BusinessConfidenceIndex
  • 40. 40 Copyright © PSG US “Misery Index” US Misery Index increased in Apr-19 Source : I-Net Bridge 4 6 8 10 12 14 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 USMiseryIndex
  • 41. 41 Copyright © PSG Eurozone “Misery Index” Eurozone Misery Index decreased in Apr-19 Source : I-Net Bridge 8 10 12 14 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 EuroMisery
  • 42. 42 Copyright © PSG South African “Misery Index” SA Misery Index increased in Apr-19 Source : I-Net Bridge 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 SAMiseryIndex
  • 43. Page 43 01| Economic Review​
  • 44. 44 Copyright © PSG Economic Indicators As at End Apr-19 APR MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP AUG JUL JUN MAY Repo 6.75% 6.75% 6.75% 6.75% 6.75% 6.75% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% 6.50% Prime 10.25% 10.25% 10.25% 10.25% 10.25% 10.25% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% FRA 9x12 7.06% 7.09% 7.09% 7.12% 7.34% 7.41% 7.63% 7.53% 7.65% 7.23% 7.31% 7.03% Inflation * 4.5% 4.1% 4.0% 4.5% 5.2% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 5.1% 4.6% 4.4% PMI 50.70 49.90 46.20 49.90 50.70 49.50 42.40 44.50 45.20 49.90 47.90 49.80 r o l i Unemployment GDP growth (y/y) GDP growth (q/q) Current account (% of GDP) Source: INET, Stats SA, SARB, Reuters, Trading Economics * Data not yet released by product provider Quarter 2 (30 June)Quarter 4 (31 December) Quarter 3 (30 September) 2018 2.60% -0.50% -2.70% Quarter 1 (31 March) -3.80% -3.40% -3.40% -3.40% 27.10% 27.50% 27.20% 26.70% 1.10% 1.30% 0.10% 0.70% 1.40% 2019 2018
  • 45. 45 Copyright © PSG April 2019 Manufacturing PMI: Above 50 April 2019 Manufacturing PMI: Below 50 Country Last Previous Change Highest Lowest Country Last Previous Change Highest Lowest Denmark 59.59 56.64 2.95 69.79 24.99 Canada 49.70 50.50 -0.80 57.10 47.50 United Arab Emirates 57.60 55.70 1.90 61.20 51.70 Japan 49.50 49.20 0.30 56.20 29.60 Saudi Arabia 56.80 56.80 0.00 61.80 51.40 Austria 49.20 50.00 -0.80 64.30 46.90 Greece 56.60 54.70 1.90 56.60 30.20 Italy 49.10 47.40 1.70 59.00 47.40 Hungary 54.90 52.50 2.40 62.00 37.20 Poland 49.00 48.70 0.30 55.90 46.90 Australia 54.80 51.00 3.80 62.50 29.47 Switzerland 48.50 50.30 -1.80 66.90 32.80 Norway 53.80 56.30 -2.50 64.10 36.90 Hong Kong 48.40 48.00 0.40 53.30 44.40 United Kingdom 53.10 55.10 -2.00 61.50 34.40 Taiwan 48.20 49.00 -0.80 56.90 45.60 United States 52.60 52.40 0.20 57.90 50.70 Euro Area 47.90 47.50 0.40 60.60 33.50 Ireland 52.50 53.90 -1.40 59.10 48.00 South Africa 47.20 45.00 2.20 60.87 35.09 Vietnam 52.50 51.90 0.60 56.50 43.60 Turkey 46.80 47.20 -0.40 55.70 42.70 Netherlands 52.00 52.50 -0.50 63.40 48.00 Czech Republic 46.60 47.30 -0.70 59.80 46.00 New Zealand 51.90 53.40 -1.50 62.80 36.10 Germany 44.40 44.10 0.30 63.30 32.00 India 51.80 52.60 -0.80 55.00 47.90 Russia 51.80 52.80 -1.00 54.70 47.60 Spain 51.80 50.90 0.90 56.10 41.10 Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/manufacturing-pmi Brazil 51.50 52.80 -1.30 53.50 41.60 Sweden 50.90 52.50 -1.60 70.40 34.00 Key: Egypt 50.80 49.90 0.90 52.50 37.10 Large economies Indonesia 50.40 51.20 -0.80 58.50 46.40 Members of the EU Singapore 50.30 50.80 -0.50 53.10 48.30 BRICS countries China 50.20 50.80 -0.60 52.30 47.20 South Korea 50.20 48.80 1.40 52.60 45.70 Mexico 50.10 49.80 0.30 57.10 49.20 France 50.00 49.70 0.30 58.80 42.70 Production Manufacturing Index Norway had the largest drop -2.50 while Australia had the largest gain 3.80
  • 46. 46 Copyright © PSG PMI Heatmap As at End Apr-19 Source : Trading Economics JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR Switzerland 54.60 57.80 58.60 57.40 55.60 60.10 60.90 61.20 61.70 62.00 65.10 65.20 65.30 65.50 60.30 63.60 62.40 61.60 61.90 64.80 59.70 57.40 57.70 57.80 54.30 55.40 50.30 48.50 Germany 56.40 56.80 58.30 58.20 59.50 59.60 58.10 59.30 60.60 60.60 62.50 63.30 61.10 60.60 58.20 58.10 56.90 55.90 56.90 55.90 53.70 52.20 51.80 51.50 49.70 47.60 44.10 44.40 Euro Area 55.20 55.40 56.20 56.70 57.00 57.40 56.60 57.40 58.10 58.50 60.10 60.60 59.60 58.60 56.60 56.20 55.50 54.90 55.10 54.60 53.20 52.00 51.80 51.40 50.50 49.30 47.50 47.90 Australia 51.20 59.30 57.50 59.20 54.80 55.00 56.00 59.80 54.20 51.10 57.30 56.20 58.70 57.50 63.10 58.30 57.50 57.40 52.00 56.70 59.00 58.30 51.30 49.50 52.50 54.00 51.00 54.80 Ireland 55.50 53.80 53.60 55.00 55.90 56.00 54.60 56.10 55.40 54.40 58.10 59.10 57.60 56.20 54.10 55.30 55.40 56.60 56.30 57.50 56.30 54.90 55.40 54.50 52.60 54.00 53.90 52.50 United Kingdom 55.90 54.60 54.20 57.30 56.70 54.30 55.10 56.90 55.90 56.30 58.20 56.30 55.30 55.20 55.10 53.90 54.40 54.40 54.00 52.80 53.80 51.10 53.10 54.20 52.80 52.00 55.10 53.10 Italy 53.00 55.00 55.70 56.20 55.10 55.20 55.10 56.30 56.30 57.80 58.30 57.40 59.00 56.80 55.10 53.50 52.70 53.30 51.50 50.10 50.00 49.20 48.60 49.20 47.80 47.70 47.40 49.10 Canada 53.50 54.70 54.70 55.90 55.10 54.70 55.50 54.60 55.00 54.30 54.40 54.70 55.90 55.60 55.70 55.50 56.20 57.10 56.90 56.80 54.80 53.90 54.90 53.60 53.00 52.60 52.60 49.70 France 53.60 52.20 53.30 55.10 53.80 54.80 54.90 55.80 56.10 56.10 57.70 58.80 58.40 55.90 53.70 53.80 54.40 52.50 53.30 53.50 52.50 51.20 50.80 49.70 51.20 51.50 49.70 50.00 Spain 55.60 54.80 53.90 54.50 55.40 54.70 54.00 52.40 54.30 55.80 56.10 55.80 55.20 56.00 54.80 54.40 53.40 53.40 52.90 53.00 51.40 51.80 52.60 51.10 52.40 49.90 50.90 51.80 United States 55.00 54.20 53.40 52.80 52.70 52.00 53.30 52.80 53.10 54.60 53.90 55.10 55.50 55.30 55.60 56.50 56.40 55.40 55.30 54.70 55.60 55.70 55.30 53.80 54.90 53.00 52.50 52.60 Japan 52.70 53.30 52.40 52.70 53.10 52.40 52.10 52.20 52.90 52.80 53.60 54.00 54.80 54.10 53.10 53.80 52.80 53.00 52.30 52.50 52.50 52.90 52.20 52.60 50.30 48.90 49.20 49.50 Turkey 48.70 49.70 52.30 51.70 53.50 54.70 53.60 55.30 53.50 52.80 52.90 54.90 55.70 55.60 51.80 48.90 46.40 46.80 49.00 46.40 42.70 44.30 44.70 44.20 44.20 46.40 47.20 46.80 Greece 46.60 47.70 46.70 48.20 49.60 50.50 50.50 52.20 52.80 52.10 52.20 53.10 55.20 56.10 55.00 52.90 54.20 53.50 53.50 53.90 53.60 53.10 54.00 53.80 53.70 54.20 54.70 56.60 India 50.40 50.70 52.50 52.50 51.60 50.90 47.90 51.20 51.20 50.30 52.60 54.70 52.40 52.10 51.00 51.60 51.20 53.10 52.30 51.70 52.20 53.10 54.00 53.20 53.90 54.30 54.30 51.80 Russia 54.70 52.50 52.40 50.80 52.40 50.30 52.70 51.60 51.90 51.10 51.50 52.00 52.10 50.20 50.60 51.30 49.80 49.50 48.10 48.90 50.00 51.30 52.60 51.70 50.90 50.10 52.80 51.80 China 51.00 51.70 51.20 50.30 49.60 50.40 51.10 51.60 51.00 51.00 50.80 51.50 51.50 51.60 51.00 51.10 51.10 51.00 50.80 50.60 50.00 50.10 50.20 49.70 48.30 49.90 50.80 50.20 Brazil 44.00 46.90 46.90 50.10 52.00 50.50 50.00 50.90 50.90 51.20 53.50 52.40 51.20 53.20 53.40 52.30 50.70 49.80 50.50 51.10 50.90 51.10 52.70 52.60 52.70 53.40 53.40 51.50 South Africa 50.90 52.50 52.20 44.70 51.50 46.70 42.90 44.00 44.90 47.80 48.60 48.60 49.90 50.80 46.90 50.90 49.80 47.90 51.50 43.40 43.20 42.40 49.50 49.50 49.90 46.20 45.00 47.20 2017 2018 2019 Between 45 and 47 Between 52 and 55 Between 47 and 52 Greater than 55 Less than 45
  • 47. 47 Copyright © PSG Economic Growth Quarterly Percentage Change , previous period Source : Trading Economics Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 U.S 0.20 3.10 2.70 1.40 -2.70 2.00 -1.90 -8.20 -5.40 -0.50 1.30 3.90 1.70 3.90 2.70 2.50 -1.50 2.90 0.80 4.60 2.70 1.90 0.50 0.10 2.80 0.80 3.10 4.00 China N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2.40 2.40 1.90 1.50 1.80 2.10 1.90 2.00 1.80 1.70 2.20 1.70 Japan 0.73 0.13 -0.45 0.49 0.30 -0.50 -1.28 -2.28 -4.89 2.12 0.03 1.44 0.86 1.25 1.83 -0.73 -1.55 -0.49 2.44 -0.15 1.12 -0.61 -0.38 0.22 1.10 0.94 0.77 -0.01 Germany 0.41 0.74 0.85 0.28 0.88 -0.27 -0.36 -1.93 -4.49 0.07 0.60 0.92 0.73 2.05 0.81 0.84 1.77 0.17 0.47 0.02 0.32 0.10 0.23 -0.45 -0.22 0.89 0.51 0.41 U.K 0.90 0.72 0.66 0.80 0.27 -0.68 -1.60 -2.18 -1.60 -0.23 0.16 0.27 0.54 0.90 0.46 0.07 0.59 0.15 0.38 0.19 0.65 -0.11 1.15 -0.15 0.64 0.54 0.85 0.52 France 0.77 0.72 0.37 0.26 0.38 -0.45 -0.32 -1.46 -1.64 -0.18 0.19 0.63 0.45 0.60 0.62 0.57 1.08 -0.02 0.23 0.10 0.07 -0.10 0.13 -0.09 0.01 0.71 -0.01 0.43 India 2.23 2.14 1.59 5.00 0.02 0.62 0.54 0.85 -1.74 5.37 2.56 2.18 2.63 2.40 2.94 2.30 1.75 1.35 -0.10 1.64 1.37 1.17 1.85 1.15 1.58 1.46 1.58 2.15 Italy 0.16 -0.10 -0.04 -0.15 1.11 -0.98 -1.40 -2.27 -2.75 -0.79 0.57 0.39 0.42 0.55 0.53 0.64 0.31 0.06 -0.58 -0.90 -0.88 -0.92 -0.45 -0.56 -1.03 0.01 0.34 -0.12 Brazil 1.93 1.87 0.96 1.71 1.60 1.74 1.86 -4.09 -2.02 2.55 2.48 2.30 1.68 1.56 1.27 1.12 0.68 1.91 -0.17 0.20 -0.13 0.90 1.57 0.19 0.01 2.07 0.56 -0.06 Canada 0.65 0.97 0.42 0.14 0.06 0.35 0.83 -1.16 -2.28 -1.10 0.45 1.18 1.19 0.51 0.71 1.13 0.74 0.19 1.39 0.79 0.03 0.33 0.20 0.12 1.03 0.65 0.82 1.01 South Africa 6.70 3.30 4.80 5.80 1.70 5.00 1.00 -2.30 -6.10 -1.40 0.90 2.70 4.60 2.80 4.50 4.30 3.90 2.30 1.20 3.10 1.60 3.60 1.20 1.80 1.70 4.30 1.80 5.30 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2019 U.S -0.90 4.60 5.20 2.00 3.20 2.70 1.60 0.50 0.60 2.20 2.80 1.80 1.20 3.10 3.20 2.30 2.20 4.20 3.40 2.20 2.40 China 1.50 1.80 1.80 1.90 2.00 1.70 1.80 1.50 1.30 1.90 1.80 1.70 1.40 1.80 1.70 1.50 1.50 1.70 1.60 1.50 1.40 Japan 0.81 -1.70 -0.04 0.69 1.24 0.13 0.09 -0.22 0.54 0.40 0.22 0.35 0.37 0.72 0.62 0.70 0.30 0.30 -0.60 0.50 0.70 Germany 0.88 -0.17 0.32 0.89 0.11 0.45 0.32 0.42 0.63 0.46 0.34 0.42 0.89 0.63 0.82 0.40 0.50 0.60 -0.20 - 0.30 U.K 0.86 0.85 0.76 0.76 0.34 0.57 0.42 0.73 0.21 0.48 0.54 0.75 0.30 0.30 0.39 0.20 0.10 0.40 0.70 0.20 0.20 France 0.07 0.21 0.54 0.02 0.38 -0.01 0.39 0.27 0.57 -0.06 0.13 0.53 0.56 0.62 0.56 0.50 0.40 0.50 0.30 0.30 0.40 India 1.19 2.32 1.90 1.51 1.77 2.20 2.05 1.76 2.39 1.52 1.51 1.51 1.40 1.45 1.64 1.90 1.90 2.00 1.80 1.50 1.50 Italy 0.03 -0.08 0.21 0.14 0.18 0.39 0.26 0.34 0.28 0.11 0.20 0.44 0.54 0.34 0.36 0.40 0.30 0.30 -0.10 -0.10 0.20 Brazil 0.22 -0.73 -0.02 0.39 -1.09 -2.26 -1.36 -0.94 -0.70 -0.57 -0.49 -0.69 1.31 0.68 0.15 0.60 - 0.10 0.50 0.10 0.60 Canada 0.12 1.20 0.73 0.45 -0.20 -0.14 0.57 0.10 0.62 -0.26 1.05 0.56 0.91 1.05 0.42 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.50 0.10 0.60 South Africa -1.60 1.00 2.60 4.40 1.70 -2.30 - 0.40 -1.00 3.20 0.90 0.30 -0.30 3.00 2.80 3.40 -2.70 -0.50 2.60 1.40 1.30 BarclaysForecasts 2017 Q1 - 2018 Q4 Zuma to Ramaphosa 2018 Commodity Drop 2015 Q1 - 2015 Q2 2014 2015 2016 2017 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 Q1 - 2009 Q1 Global Financial Crisis 2012 2013 2011 Q3 - 2013 Q1 European Crisis
  • 48. 48 Copyright © PSG 15 2 6 5 4 2 2 3 4 6 1 1 2 1 6 4 3 1 1 1 5 5 4 2 4 11 1 2 3 4 7 1 1 1 4 5 5 1 1 4 4 6 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Rate(%) December March Fed Dot Plot December 2018 vs March 2019 Longer Term Longer Term Longer Term
  • 49. 49 Copyright © PSG Fed Funds Target Rate Fed Funds Target Rate at for 2020 Source : I-Net Bridge 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 FedFundstarget% Current 2.5% 2019E 2.625%% 2020E 2.625%%
  • 50. 50 Copyright © PSG Misery Index & Interest Rates Developed Markets As at End Apr-19 Source : Trading Economics Country Interest Rate Inflation Rate Unemployment Rate Real GDP Change Misery Index United States 2.50% 1.90% 3.60% 2.20% 5.80% United Kingdom 0.75% 1.90% 3.90% 0.20% 6.35% Euro Area 0.00% 1.70% 7.70% 0.20% 9.20% Germany 0.00% 2.00% 3.20% 0.00% 5.20% France 0.00% 1.20% 8.80% 0.30% 9.70% Japan -0.10% 0.50% 2.50% 0.50% 2.40% China 4.35% 2.00% 3.80% 1.50% 8.65%
  • 51. 51 Copyright © PSG Misery Index & Interest Rates Developed Markets in As at End Apr-19 Source : Trading Economics 36.95% 5.80% 6.35% 9.20% 5.20% 9.70% 2.40% 8.65% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% South Africa United States United Kingdom Euro Area Germany France Japan China Interest Rate (negative) Inflation Rate Unemployment Rate Real GDP Change Misery Index
  • 52. 52 Copyright © PSG Interest Rate Forecast As at Q4 2018 Source : SARB
  • 53. 53 Copyright © PSG Gold ($/Oz): 1283.40 Brent Oil (S/Barrel): 71.65 Platinum ($/Oz) : 897.94 Copper ($/Tonne): 6442 Coal ($/Tonne): 68.31 Commodity prices – Good month for Oil 10 Years to End Apr-19 Source : I-Net Bridge 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Gold ($/oz) Brent Oil ($/barrel) Platinum ($/oz) Copper ($/tonne) Coal ($/tonne) Month YTD 12-Month 5-Years (Ann) 10-Years (Ann) Gold ($/oz) -2.39% -2.14% -2.50% 0.12% 3.46% Brent Oil ($/barrel) 1.76% 10.62% -2.62% -8.92% 3.76% Platinum ($/oz) -3.03% 3.41% -9.11% -9.82% -2.85% Copper ($/tonne) -0.78% 5.48% -2.99% -0.46% 4.86% Coal ($/tonne) -9.37% -20.01% -19.96% -0.41% 2.33%
  • 54. 54 Copyright © PSG Commodity prices in ZAR Month YTD 12-Month 5-Years (Ann) 10-Years (Ann) Gold -1.98% 4.95% 11.81% 6.21% 9.36% Oil 4.60% 26.60% 10.12% -1.99% 9.13% Platinum 4.79% 18.57% 13.72% -3.05% 3.23% Copper -1.98% 13.12% 8.99% 5.44% 9.23% Coal -5.65% -17.43% -17.57% 4.00% 6.44% 10 Years to End Apr-19 Source : I-Net Bridge 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Gold Oil Platinum Copper Coal
  • 55. 55 Copyright © PSG CBEO Volatility Index : VIX© Volatility decreased in Apr-19 Source : I-Net Bridge 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 VIXIndexLevel Mean : 18.63 Std Dev : 8.33 13.12
  • 56. 56 Copyright © PSG SA Volatility Index : SAVI© Volatility decreased in Apr-19 Source : I-Net Bridge 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 10 15 20 25 30 35 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 SAVI +1 Std Dev -1 Std Dev Average PSG Wealth Creator FoF - 5 Year Subsequent Mean : 21.76 Std Dev : 6.48 15.43
  • 59. 59 Copyright © PSG RMB Business Confidence Index™ RMB/BER decreased in Apr-19 Source : I-Net Bridge 10 25 40 55 70 85 Apr-90 Apr-91 Apr-92 Apr-93 Apr-94 Apr-95 Apr-96 Apr-97 Apr-98 Apr-99 Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 BusinessConfidenceIndex
  • 60. 60 Copyright © PSG US “Misery Index” US Misery Index increased in Apr-19 Source : I-Net Bridge 4 6 8 10 12 14 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 USMiseryIndex
  • 61. 61 Copyright © PSG Eurozone “Misery Index” Eurozone Misery Index decreased in Apr-19 Source : I-Net Bridge 8 10 12 14 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 EuroMisery
  • 62. 62 Copyright © PSG South African “Misery Index” SA Misery Index increased in Apr-19 Source : I-Net Bridge 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 SAMiseryIndex

Editor's Notes

  1. See above- updated for you.
  2. See above- updated for you.
  3. See above- updated for you.
  4. See above- updated for you.
  5. Insert the Top 40 with the forecast in place of this graph - Then insert the 41-100 with the same forecast
  6. Over the next 9 months the market things interest rates will remain stable
  7. Amend these points and also insert the graph with the Emerging market vs developed markets
  8. Find new graph to replace this one – World government bank
  9. Where do you find the information for this graph? And be sure to insert all of the disclaimers
  10. Where do you find the information for this graph? And be sure to insert all of the disclaimers
  11. Where do you find the information for this graph? And be sure to insert all of the disclaimers
  12. Leading indicators - These types of indicators signal future events. Bond yields are thought to be a good leading indicator of the stock market because bond traders anticipate and speculate trends in the economy (even though they aren't always right). New housing starts, money supply, and M2 are considered good leading indicators. Lagging indicators - A lagging indicator is one that follows an event. The importance of a lagging indicator is its ability to confirm that a pattern is occurring. Unemployment is one of the most popular lagging indicators. If the unemployment rate is rising, it indicates that the economy has been doing poorly. Another example of a lagging indicator is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures changes in the inflation rate. Coincident indicators - These indicators occur at approximately the same time as the conditions they signify. Rather than predicting future events, these types of indicators change at the same time as the economy or stock market. Personal income is a coincidental indicator for the economy: high personal income rates will coincide with a strong economy. The gross domestic product (GDP) of an economy is also a coincident indicator.
  13. Leading indicators - These types of indicators signal future events. Bond yields are thought to be a good leading indicator of the stock market because bond traders anticipate and speculate trends in the economy (even though they aren't always right). New housing starts, money supply, and M2 are considered good leading indicators. Lagging indicators - A lagging indicator is one that follows an event. The importance of a lagging indicator is its ability to confirm that a pattern is occurring. Unemployment is one of the most popular lagging indicators. If the unemployment rate is rising, it indicates that the economy has been doing poorly. Another example of a lagging indicator is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures changes in the inflation rate. Coincident indicators - These indicators occur at approximately the same time as the conditions they signify. Rather than predicting future events, these types of indicators change at the same time as the economy or stock market. Personal income is a coincidental indicator for the economy: high personal income rates will coincide with a strong economy. The gross domestic product (GDP) of an economy is also a coincident indicator.
  14. Over the last year inflation has decreased quite markedly from 6.6% in January 2017, to 4.6% in November 2017. We expect the rate of the decrease in the inflation rate to decelerate at this levels The higher sovereign funding costs (following the downgrades) will pass through the economy, and serve as a structural tailwind for capital pricing and inflation. Fortunately however, the stronger Rand will support lower import costs and reduce near term inflationary pressure on that front. The drought in the Western Cape remains a concern, not only to the primary sectors, but also the secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy. The market seems to be expecting some rate cuts in the coming year, which will become increasingly likely if inflation falls below 4%. It is to be expected however that the MPC will remain cautious while there remains many uncertainties that could impact inflation numbers quite dramatically. Simultaneously we expect that the MPC will focus on the sustainability of the downward trend seen in prevailing inflation numbers. PMI numbers have beard testimony to the weak economic climate to which consumers have been exposed to. The PMI leading indicator continues to forecast lackluster levels of growth for South Africa. Despite some fairly precarious growth numbers the domestic unemployment rate remained stable in 2017. a silver lining around a very dark cloud. Jobs will have to be generated if meaningful and sustainable change is to be expected on multiple fronts from growth to poverty to education. It should also be mentioned that although the unemployment rate has been stable, the existing level is the highest peak since September 2003. Unfortunately, the weaker Rand did not help to reduce the current account deficit. The uncertainties witnessed regarding political uncertainty, obviously also impacts policy uncertainty and business and investor confidence.
  15. The global synchronised growth story seems largely intact, barring a few exceptions in emerging markets (including South Africa). Most PMI numbers are not only above 50, indicating expansion in the economy, but are also trending upwards Large parts of Europe is exhibiting PMIs above 60, which indicates extremely robust growth
  16. 30 Sep 2017 We are amidst a strong recovery in the global markets lead by a healthy combination of key players in both the developed and emerging markets. US growth is now at its highest level since 2014, when growth was coming of a low base in a weak economy The existing growth is of a higher base in a much stronger economy, which boads well for the depth of the strength of the US economy, but should simultaneously also not be considered to continue with its existing acceleration. As the economic growth matures in the current cycle we should expect growth to take place at a slower pace than what we fitness in recent years.
  17. 30 Sep 2017 As expected the Fed proceeded with its rate hikes during the course of 2017 We maintain our view that the cycle is set to continue and that investors ought to be very cautious and selective in US debt markets.
  18. Insert the Top 40 with the forecast in place of this graph - Then insert the 41-100 with the same forecast
  19. 30 Sep 2017 The de was not the only developed market central bank to take a firmer stance on monetary policy: the BoE increased Uk rates by 0.25% to 0.50% during November last year. Some would argue that this was perhaps a bold move with the background marked with Brexit uncertainties.
  20. Amend these points and also insert the graph with the Emerging market vs developed markets
  21. Amend these points and also insert the graph with the Emerging market vs developed markets