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HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures

The document outlines IBM's foresight initiatives that help the company anticipate future trends in technology, society, and business. It details several programs such as the Global Technology Outlook (GTO) and the Global Innovation Outlook (GIO), which identify significant trends, engage in collaborative brainstorming, and foster innovation through community participation. Ultimately, these initiatives aim to prepare IBM for emerging opportunities and challenges in a rapidly changing landscape.

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HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential FuturesBill Chamberlin – Principal Analyst, IBM Market Insights17 Aug 2011
Howdoes a companysurvive 100 years?2HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
Howdoes a companysurvive 200 years?3HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
Table of ContentsHow IBM Develops a View of theFuture: EightIBM Foresight InitiativesHow I, as a Market Insights Professional, Develop a View of the Future 4HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
IBM has a diverse, evolving, set of internal foresight capabilities focused on technology, society and business5HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential FuturesGlobal Technology Outlook (GTO)Global Innovation Outlook (GIO)Eight IBM Foresight InitiativesGlobal Technology OutlookAcademy of TechnologyFirst of a Kind (FOAK)Global Innovation OutlookInnovationJamInstitute for Business ValueMarket Development & InsightsHorizonWatch CommunityAcademy of Technology(AoT)First of a Kind (FOAK)InnovationJamInstitute for Business Value (IBV)Market Development & Insights (MDI)Community: Horizonwatch
6The Global Technology Outlook is developed annually by IBM Research, which has 11 labs located in 9 countriesDublin ChinaZurich TokyoWatsonHaifaAlmadenIndiaAustin MelbourneRio 5 Nobel Laureates14 National Medals 6 Turing Awards80 Members of National Academies 11 Inductees, National Inventors Hall of FameIBM Research LabHorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
7The Global Technology Outlook team solicits input from the wide diversity of disciplines at IBM ResearchComputer ScienceBehavioral SciencesEngineeringChemistryImproved human computer interactionsub-micron lithography Deep QA for Natural Language Processing (Watson) Nano-science and Nano-technologyMathematical SciencesService Science, Management & EngineeringMaterials SciencePhysicsScience & EngineeringBusiness & ManagementBusinessInnovationTechnologyInnovationSocial InnovationDemand InnovationEconomics & MarketsSocial & CognitiveSciencesprotein foldingTrackpoint for Thinkpad, Risk ManagementOrganic SemiconductorsImprove services-led economyhttp://www.research.ibm.com/areas.shtmlHorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
8Global Technology Outlook (GTO)IBM Research’s annual Global Technology Outlook identifies disruptive societal, technical and economic trends that might impact IBM and its clientsObjectiveThe GTO identifies significant technology trends early. It looks for high impact disruptive technologies leading to game changing products and services over a 3-10 year horizonDisruptive technologies, potential new technologies, game changersIdentify trends - - exponentials, thresholds, discontinuities, wallsNew technologies, new marketsThe GTO is used to drive technical initiatives in IBM Research and to jointly engage with IBM in formulating these initiativesAbout The ProcessIt’s a process that takes the whole year and involves getting input from all IBM Industry and Business Unit Strategists, IBM Research employees, University researchers, partners, and suppliersHorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
2011 GTO Topics – What does IBM Research think is going to be important in the future?http://www-05.ibm.com/ch/ibm_sap_portfolio/pdf/Global_Technology_Outlook_2011.pdf9HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
A sidebenefit of the GTO processisthe “5 in 5” series of foresightpredictionspublishedeveryyear10http://youtu.be/2m7ticc7jnEhttp://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/33304.wssHorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
The Global Innovation Outlook focused more on broad issues impacting all types of organizationsGlobal Innovation Outlook (GIO)Focused on broad and challenging topics – spanning geographies, generations, industries and interestsRan from 2004-09, picked 2-3 topics per yearSurfaced insights and opportunities for business and societal innovationOpen, collaborative, multi-disciplinary process with external business leaders, academics, researchers and policymakersHelped to launch IBM spin-off projectshttp://www.ibm.com/ibm/gio/us/en/index.html11HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
12The IBM Academy of Technology is a society of IBM technical leaders across all IBM Business UnitsAcademy of Technology(AoT)Academy Mission Advance the understanding of key emerging technical areas, Improve development of IBM's global technical community, Engage clients in technical pursuits of mutual value.Sets the Technical Agenda via ‘Activities’Anyone in IBM’s technical community can start an Academy activityCurrently, many activities are in areas such as:Smarter PlanetCloud ComputingBusiness Analytics and OptimizationWhat makes a good Academy activity?Stimulate, organize, synthesize and advance technical dialogue and innovation across business linesUnderstand the gaps and address the opportunities for innovation that occur at the intersections of units and technical disciplines,HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futureshttp://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/academy/index.html
13The First-of-a-Kind (FOAK) Program encourages collaboration of early adopter clients with IBM Research and Sales First of a Kind (FOAK)Pushes early thought leadership and experiences with new technologiesPilot experimental solutions & deliver working prototypesValidate market requirements Test market readiness250+ projects completedRecognized industry best practiceFrost & Sullivan Certified Best PracticeInnovation Passport: The IBM First-of-a-Kind Journey From Research to RealityFOAK accelerates the delivery of innovation from the research labs into the markethttp://www.research.ibm.com/FOAK/index.shtmlHorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
14InnovationJam: IBM’s online approach to large-scale collaborative brainstormingInnovationJamOnline collaborative discussions for focused audiences ranging in size from a few hundred to hundreds of thousands
Innovation events over a defined period of time to capture the pulse of the group or to solicit specific ideas to critical business or societal issues
Jam Hosts and facilitators guide participants to build on each other’s ideas – supporting a meaningful exchange of perspectives by a focused audience around a shared topic
Real-time text analysis and data mining to highlight emerging trends and distill actionable resultshttps://www.collaborationjam.com/HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
15InnovationJam Example: Habitat Jam The World Urban Forum (WUF) was established by the United Nations to examine rapid urbanization and its impact on cities, economies and policies
HabitatJam was the largest brainstorming event on urban sustainability bringing together not only NGOs, politicians and academia – but the slum dwellers whose lives were directly impacted by this body
Results: Over 30,000 participants from 158 countries generated 600+ ideas. 70 of these were presented and adopted at the WUF3 conference as its official platform"At the heart of the urban crisis is a failure to allow the full participation of ordinary people in the development of the city. It is my hope that innovative technologies associated with Habitat Jam will help bring people closer together to plan and develop truly human settlements.“ Mrs. Anna Tibaijuka, former Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and Executive Director of UN-HABITAThttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habitat_JamHorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
16Institute for Business ValueThe IBM Institute for Business Value is global team of 50+ consultants who conduct research and analysis across multiple industries and functional disciplinesInstitute for Business Value (IBV)Sector / Industry TeamsBusiness Function TeamsStrategy & Change
Customer Relationship Management
Financial Management
Human Capital Management
Supply Chain Management
Application Innovationhttp://www-935.ibm.com/services/us/gbs/thoughtleadership/HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
17Institute for Business ValueIBV’s thought leadership provides an original, research-based point of view told from a client’s business perspectiveInstitute for Business Value (IBV)Examples of Thought Leadership Studies“Future Agendas”CXO SurveysExample reports include the CEO Study, CHRO Study, CFO Study, and CIO Study3 to 10 year industry and/or functional area outlook with action oriented next stepsHorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
IBM Market Insight’s Strategic Perspectives Team accelerates the understanding of new or emerging markets, and act as a catalyst for future growth.Market Development & Insights (MDI)The IBM MI Strategic Perspectives Team provides the initial foresight and insight for new and emerging market opportunities and competitive threats. This includes providing a Market Insightsperspective Market DefinitionPotential OpportunityDrivers/InhibitorsPotential SegmentationGeographical DifferencesCompetitive IntelligenceExampleReportsFuture of Nuclear Energy ● Next Emerging Geographic Markets ●Consumer Product Goods in Rural China ●Climate Change/Energy & Environment ●Physical Infrastructure in Growth Markets ●Advanced Water Management ●Intelligent Buildings ●Smarter Cities ● 2015 Growth Strategy18HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential Futures
Market Insight’s Center for Applied Insights White Paper: “100 years of foresight: The importance of long-term thinking at IBM”19HorizonWatching: How IBM Develops Views of the Potential FuturesMarket Development & Insights (MDI)“The practice of corporate foresight helps the enterprise avoid strategic surprise and reduce uncertainty in decision making. It allows the enterprise to think through the consequences of unanticipated change, envisioning what might be possible and deciding what would be preferable.”Authors: David Jarvis, Senior Consultant, IBM Center for Applied Insights