The Arabia Foundation's new blog post "Here's Why A Yemen Breakthrough is Unlikely"

1. HERE’S WHY A YEMEN
BREAKTHROUGH IS
UNLIKELY
Arabia Foundation

2. Although peace consultations between
Yemen’s internationally recognized
government and Ansarullah, more
commonly known as the Houthis, are
currently under way just outside of
Stockholm, Sweden, chances for a
diplomatic breakthrough are slim.
This is because, up until now, the Houthis have consistently shown
that while they are happy to negotiate concessions that will
strengthen their hold over North Yemen, they have no interest in a
negotiated settlement. If the Stockholm talks are to succeed, the
United Nations and the international community must do a better
job of holding the Houthis accountable for actions and rhetoric that
undermine the legitimacy of the UN-sponsored negotiations and the
prospects of a negotiated peace.

3. The current consultations, led by UN
special envoy Martin Griffiths, are not an
attempt to reach a comprehensive
settlement but are focused on confidence-
building measures to cultivate trust
between the two sides.
Thus, the discussions are likely to center on measures that will
stabilize Yemen’s economy such as strengthening the Central
Bank of Yemen and reopening Sana’a airport, as well
as prisoner exchanges. Indeed, the UN envoy just
announced that the two sides have already agreed to a prisoner
swap. The Stockholm discussions are meant to restart
September’s failed Geneva talks, which collapsed after the
Houthi delegation’s last-minute decision to condition their
participation on the UN’s evacuating their wounded for medical
treatment abroad. In advance of Stockholm, the UN envoy
secured the transfer of fifty injured Houthis to Oman.

4. The Houthis understand that they will be publicly held to account if they are not seen by the
international community as actively participating in the UN-sponsored peace process. So, they
have decided on a strategy of paying lip service to the peace process in order to extract
unilateral concessions to keep prosecuting the war while conceding as little as possible.
For example, while the Houthis backed out of Geneva, they used the UN-sponsored cease-fire
that preceded those talks to triple the number of deployed militiamen and dig new trenches
along key roadways around the contested port city of Hodeidah. In October, the UN
overlooked the Houthis’ assault and arrest of sixteen female students peacefully
demonstrating against Yemen’s deteriorating economic situation and the Houthis’ new
crackdown on practitioners of the Baha’i faith, whom the Houthis, like their Iranian backers,
have ruthlessly repressed, to secure a Houthi meeting with Mr. Griffiths in Muscat that
achieved nothing. Now, the UN has acceded to demands for medical treatment for Houthi
personnel without securing anything concrete in return—save for a prisoner exchange that
the Houthis wanted anyway.

5. At the same time, the Houthis employ rhetoric and
actions that are at odds with their professed interest
in a negotiated peace. In Yemeni media and in
speeches to his followers, Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-
Houthi has repeatedly derided the UN process to his
followers as a “Western plot” advancing an “American-
Israeli agenda” that serves the interests of “America’s
allies [Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates].”
Houthi militiamen appear to be taking their leader’s
words at face value. In August, for example, they
targeted a World Food Programme truck in Hodeidah
and kidnapped UN staff. This violence on the ground
has often been sharpened as a result of a perception
that utilizes “us against them” logic, which is advanced
in every al-Houthi speech. The Houthis do not just talk
the talk when it comes to resisting peace; they also
walk the walk. On the eve of the failed Geneva
consultations, they launched ballistic missiles into
Saudi Arabia, injuring at least twenty-six. Ahead of
Stockholm, they did the exact same thing, firing off
another volley into the kingdom.
As long as the Houthis maintain the power of the gun,
peace is not in their favor. Prolonging the conflict
through interminable negotiations prevents Yemeni
forces from recapturing the Hodeidah seaport, which
gives the Houthis direct control over 70 percent of
Yemen’s food, medical, and humanitarian aid. This aid
gives the Houthis leverage over the population they
control and preserves al-Houthi’s elaborate patronage
networks. In Sana’a, where the Houthis exercise
absolute control, they have packed government
ministries with loyalists and confiscated
government and private lands to build illegal housing
for their supporters. The Houthis have also created an
entire class of specialists in illicit war tax collection,
soldier—including child soldier—recruitment, and
intelligence gathering. These specialists’ livelihoods
depend on the continuation of the war.

6. Thereisalsoaninternational
dimensionatplay.
Iran is using its support for the Houthis in Yemen as a means of putting
pressure on the Trump administration (and its regional allies) for trying to
roll back Iranian expansionism. At the same time, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard
Corps has managed to bog down archrival Saudi Arabia in a seemingly
interminable conflict that has strained Riyadh’s military and budget while
costing Tehran comparatively little in both men and matériel. Al-Houthi also
knows that any permanent peace will require him to disband his militias and
forfeit his followers’ medium and heavy arms, which is something he and
Iran are loath to do.

7. Understandably, the UN envoy is in a bind; he needs to maintain an open
channel to the Houthis, who incidentally attempted to assassinate his
predecessor in 2017, if he is to have any chance of advancing peace. But peace
cannot be served if the UN does not hold all sides equally accountable. The
Houthis have consolidated their power by leveraging UN-sponsored
negotiations to pocket concessions, silence opposition, and reinforce their
military, and they have directly undermined the UN-sponsored negotiations
through their rhetoric and their actions. In their desire to maintain a
peace process, the UN and the international community have allowed the
Houthis to undercut the chances for a negotiated peace. This is perhaps why,
despite widespread support for the UN’s efforts, there are no great
expectations of success in Stockholm. After all, if the internationally
recognized government of Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi and the Saudi-led
coalition is going to bear sole responsibility for Yemen’s plight, what
incentive is there for the Houthis to negotiate in good faith?

8. ThankYou!
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