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The contagious Effect of the US Subprime Crisis on Gulf Countries Presented by  Sana Khelifi MASTER’S THESIS IN ACTUARIAL & FINANCIAL SCIENCES
‘ When the United States sneezes, the rest of the world may well catch a cold’  – By Rich Miller
Presentation Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Motivation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Motivation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Motivation ,[object Object],[object Object],Oil prices fell over 75% Gulf Stock market  fell over 40 % KSE ADI DFM TASI
Motivation ,[object Object],KSE ADI DFM TASI Oil prices fell over 75% ,[object Object]
Motivation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Literature Review ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Literature Review ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Literature Review ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Subprime Contagion: Fundamental-based contagion ,[object Object],Subprime   Borrower Subprime   Lender SPV Investors Banks Hedge Funds Insurance Companies Pension Funds Housing Prices Decline ARM resets  Mortgage  Loans Sales of loans Loans Proceeds Stop Repayment: Mortgage Delinquencies & Foreclosures Mortgage Cash Flow declines ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Securitization
Fundamental-based contagion - Financial links GCC credit default swaps GCC real estate price index GRC IMF IMF GRC IMF IMF
Fundamental Based-contagion  Trade Links Source: IEA Oil demand down,…
Fundamental-based contagion    Common Aggregate shock   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Pure / Psychological contagion  ,[object Object],IMF
Evidence of contagion - Gaussian Copula ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],S&P500 DFM KSE TASI Total Nos. of Obs. 1031 1097 1055 1089 Pre-crisis. Nos. 649 729 663 715 Crisis Nos. 382 368 392 374
Data analysis ,[object Object]
Data analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],S&P500 DFM KSE TASI Mean. -0.0003 -0.00029 -0.00017 -0.00012 Std. 0.0146 0.0179 0.0079 0.0186 Kurtosis Skewness 16.1492 -0.345 10.9134 -0.0132 9.4178 -0.7957 9.4983 -0.7822
Methodology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Results ,[object Object]
Results ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Results ,[object Object]
Results ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Estimated copula parameters Whole period Pre-crisis period Crisis period DFM 0.0257 -0.037 0.0772 KSE 0.0379 0.0044 0.0772 TASI 0.0505 -0.0119 0.1285
Caveats and Conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Caveats and Conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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The Contagious Effect Of The US Subprime Crisis On Gulf Countries

  • 1. The contagious Effect of the US Subprime Crisis on Gulf Countries Presented by Sana Khelifi MASTER’S THESIS IN ACTUARIAL & FINANCIAL SCIENCES
  • 2. ‘ When the United States sneezes, the rest of the world may well catch a cold’ – By Rich Miller
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  • 11.
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  • 13. Fundamental-based contagion - Financial links GCC credit default swaps GCC real estate price index GRC IMF IMF GRC IMF IMF
  • 14. Fundamental Based-contagion Trade Links Source: IEA Oil demand down,…
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