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Half Day Signal Sharing Workshop Process and Templates
This document outlines a structured workshop aimed at developing scenario planning based on four archetypes: growth, collapse, discipline, and transformation. Participants are guided to discuss external drivers and internal trends, review important signals, and collaborate in order to write a comprehensive country report. The workshop includes specific process steps, materials required, and emphasizes the importance of identifying trends and signals relevant to the future.
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Half Day Signal Sharing Workshop Process and Templates
- 1. step 1. DISCUSSTHE 4 ALTERNATIVE FUTURES AND EXTERNAL DRIVERS step 3. DISCUSS IMPORTANT INTERNAL TRENDS 1 hour 1 hour 1 hourstep 2. REVIEW SIGNALS AND PLACE THEM IN SCENARIO ARCHETYPES Familiarize the group with the scenario archetypes, then discus the major external drivers that you see in each of the archetypes. Are there others that are missing? Are there ones that are less relevant? Looking beyond the trends within your pillar, what other internal trends are influencing life in your country? Before the workshop each team member will have to read through all signals from your pillar and bring with them the 10 most impor- tant or interesting ones. You will then review the most important ones and discuss which alternative future the signal represents. For this workshop you will need ◆ Pens ◆ Paper and tape (or large sticky notes) ◆ Wall space to hang paper ◆ Printed out templates for each member ◆ Print out of Alternative Futures document ◆ Review of (and collection of top 10) signals in your pillar, see step 2, prior to attending ◆ 3 hours of uninterrupted time PLUS review of each template and process guide prior to workshop AGENDA © 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. For each step you will find a template, followed by a process page. Use the template as your worksheet, and the process guide to facili- tate your discussion. This workshop is designed to assist you in writing your final report. It will give you input for your report meth- odology, scenarios, as well as the findings and analysis. Gather your country team members and begin collaborating on your country report! ALICT HALF-DAY WORKSHOP REVIEWING SIGNALS, ALTERNATIVE FUTURES, DRIVERS, AND TRENDS
- 2. The name of yourpillar GROWTH COLLAPSE DISCIPLINE TRANSFORMATION Stories about the Future! Challenges! Policy Issues! Who? who is driving this scenario? How? how is this scenario coming to be? Why? why is this happening? What? what is driving this scenario? The story of DISCOVERING YOUR DRIVERS step 1 Use this Foresight tool to create alternative scenarios or stories about the future that are based on four arche- types: growth, collapse, discipline, and transformation. © 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved.
- 3. Process Steps ◆ Refer toAlternative Futures Document. ◆ Go through each archetype one at a time. As a group, come to understand what that world of growth, collapse, discipline, and transfor- mation looks like within your country. Who and what is affected, and how? ◆ Write down each of the drivers mentioned in the appropriate archetype box of the template ◆ Drivers are external forces affecting your country without your control. (i.e. climate change, Euro crisis, or changing immigration patterns) ◆ In your group discuss any missing drivers, add them to the appropriate box. ◆ Save these drivers for when you write your own scenarios. Current trends and condi- tions continue to progress. A core guiding value or purpose is used to orga- nize society and control behavior. A fundamental reorga- nization of a society or system that signals a break from the past. Major social systems and infrastructure break down or fail. TRANSFORMATIONDISCIPLINE COLLAPSEGROWTH Work With Scenario Archetypes ex: alternative education systems ex: unreliable telecoms industry ex: animal grazing limits ex: decrasing cost of mobile data DISCOVERING YOUR DRIVERS step 1 © 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved.
- 4. The name of yourpillar GROWTH COLLAPSE DISCIPLINE TRANSFORMATION Stories about the Future! Challenges! Policy Issues! Who? who is driving this scenario? How? how is this scenario coming to be? Why? why is this happening? What? what is driving this scenario? The story of DISCOVERING YOUR SIGNALS step 2 Use this Foresight tool to create alternative scenarios or stories about the future that are based on four arche- types: growth, collapse, discipline, and transformation. © 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved.
- 5. SIGNALING GUIDE ProcessSteps ◆ As a group, review your most important signals directly related to your pillar. ◆ print each signal out on a separate piece of paper. ◆ Collect one signal at a time from each partici- pant and share it with the group. Hang signal on the wall within the appropriate archetype. Does this signal represent growth, collapse, discipline, or transformation of your pillar? ◆ If someone else had a similar, or even the exact same signal as the one just presented, have them share it and then place it in the appropriate archetype. If there is disagree- ment over which archetype a signal belongs in, come to an agreement. ◆ Once exercise is done, save the signals placed in each archetype for when you write your scenarios. ◆ Save these signals in your individual step 2 for when you write your own scenarios. Scan the Environment and Identify Signals Think about signals as the building blocks of forecasts. Signals represent early indicators of change. Signals can be an observation, piece of data, or new business development. Signals answer the question, “Where do we see the future today?” step 2 © 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved.
- 6. ◆ Emerging Trend step Usethis Foresight tool to help you and your work- ing group consider the 5 most important internal trends. These will be important logical links within your scenarios. Where do we see the future today? ◆ Emerging Trend ◆ Emerging Trend ◆ Emerging Trend ◆ Emerging Trend 3 © 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved.
- 7. Process Steps ◆ Individually take5 minutes to silently write down the most important internal trends. One trend per piece of paper (i.e. unemploy- ment, GDP growth, corruption… be sure to consider Social, Technological, Economic, Envi- ronmental, and Political trends) ◆ Begin with someone sharing a trend, and then hang it on the wall. ◆ Ask if anyone has the same, or similar trend (called a “build”). Have them share it and then hang it next to the other trend. ◆ Once all builds are done, ask the next person to share a trend. Repeat the previous step. ◆ Do this until all trends have been discussed and placed in clusters. Name each cluster with the overall theme. ◆ Narrow the clusters down to 5 most impor- tant trends. Write them down in the trend bubbles of the Trends of the Future template. ◆ Save the final trends for when you write your scenarios. Discover Important National Trends Trends are national changes that have been taking shape over time. Trends can both mean “on the rise” and “on the decline.” Trends answer the question, what forces are shaping the future? Trends should be considered within Social, Technological, Economic, Envi- ronmental, and Political arenas. PROCESS GUIDE step 3 © 2012 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved.