As we head towards the second half of 2017 and the one-year anniversary of the UK referendum on EU membership, many themes which have pre-occupied financial markets in the past 12 months are likely to continue dominating headlines.
These include Donald Trump’s US presidency and its longevity, merits and scope for tax reforms and infrastructural spending, Brexit negotiations which officially started on 19th June and the resilience of the ongoing recovery in global GDP growth.
Global GDP growth rose modestly in Q1 2017 to around 3.12% year-on-year from 3.06% in Q4 2016 and a multi-year low of 2.8% yoy in Q2 2016, according to my estimates.
But the global manufacturing PMI averaged 52.7 in April-May, down slightly from 52.9 in Q1 2017, suggesting global GDP growth may not have accelerated further in Q2. This could in turn, at the margin, delay or temper policy rate hikes and/or unwinding of QE programs.
Non-Japan Asian currencies have in the past month been even more stable than in the preceding month, in line with my expectations, but a more pronounced policy change – particularly in China – remains a possibility.
Other themes, such as the timing and magnitude of higher policy rates in developed economies and falling international oil prices, have recently come into clearer focus and will likely be of central importance in H2.
For the UK, I am sticking to my view that a 25bp policy rate hike this year is still a low probability event and I see little chance of an August hike.
The uncertainty over the MPC’s interest rate path and the government’s stance on Brexit complicate any forecast of Sterling near and medium-term but I continue to see the risks biased towards further depreciation.
In France, the hype surrounding Emmanuel Macron’s presidential and legislative election victories is already giving way to whether, when and how smoothly the LREM-MoDem rainbow government can push through its reformist agenda.
Finally, while most European elections are now thankfully behind us, European financial markets are likely to attach great importance to the outcome of Germany’s general election on 24th September.
Conversely, the burning topic of rising European nationalism and future of the eurozone/EU has lost traction following recent presidential and/or legislative elections in France, the UK, Netherlands and Austria.
Paradox of acute uncertainty and strong consensus viewsOlivier Desbarres
There appears to be a quasi-universal belief that 2017 will be characterised by acute uncertainty, with the list of difficult-to-predict economic and political variables growing exponentially in recent months.
These include the paths which Donald Trump will tread in the US and Theresa May in the UK, the Fed’s reaction function, the future of the eurozone and EU with European elections looming, the perennial question of China’s exchange rate policy and outlook for oil prices.
And yet, there is already it would seem a set of strong consensus views about the direction which economic variables and financial markets will follow in 2017.
US reflationary policies are expected to rule, boosting already decent US economic growth, inflation and US equities, in turn forcing the Fed to adopt a far more hawkish stance than in 2015-2016 and pushing US yields and dollar higher.
At the same time, President-elect Trump’s penchant for protectionism, alongside a strong dollar and higher US yields, are seen as major headwinds for indebted emerging economies reliant on trade and by implication for emerging currencies, bonds and equities. These seemingly include the Mexican Peso and Chinese Renminbi.
Moreover, the consensus forecast is that at the very least EUR/USD will fall below parity, having got close in December.
The perception of acute uncertainty is not totally incompatible with seemingly well-anchored forecasts but they do make uncomfortable bed-fellows.
Some of the uncertainties which have gained prominence can be put to rest, for now at least. At the same time, some of the sure-fire trades currently advocated may struggle to stand the test of time, in my view.
Marine Le Pen is very unlikely to become the next French President, the Italian banking sector will not be allowed to implode and the euro may end the year on a strong note.
Emerging market currencies have showed greater poise in the past few weeks, with a number of central banks showing both the appetite and the room to support their currencies. This should be borne in mind.
French politics, UK macro data and possible GBP/EUR downsideOlivier Desbarres
• The GBP/EUR cross is at year-highs but continues to struggle to breach the 1.20 mark, as it did on a number of occasions in the second half of 2016.
• Sterling has been buoyed by British Prime Minister Theresa May’s call for early general elections on 8th June while the euro remains in reasonably narrow trading ranges as we head into Sunday’s French presidential election first round.
• With four presidential candidates polling between 18.5% and 23.5%, it is still a close call.
• But I am sticking to my core scenario that independent centre-left candidate Emmanuel Macron will fill one of the top two spots to make it to the 7th May run-off, which I my view would be welcomed by French financial markets and the euro even if markets remain jittery over the next fortnight.
• At the same time, the ever-changing political scene in the UK can do little near-term to avert the headwinds to GDP growth stemming from falling real wages and retail sales.
• With this in mind, I see the risk to GBP/EUR biased to the downside in coming weeks, particularly if both Macron and Republican candidate François Fillon earn their place in the second round.
The past year has been remarkable with political precedents set in the US, UK and France, still record-low central bank policy rates in most developed economies and financial markets and macro data at all-time or multi-year highs (and lows).
Olivier Desbarres - Hawkish Pendulum May Have Swung Too FarOlivier Desbarres
I have long argued that the risk of a collapse in global economic growth and inflation was over-stated and more recently that major central banks had likely reached an important inflexion point.
A global recession and global deflation have seemingly been averted and central bank policy rate cuts and extensions of quantitative easing programs have become rarer occurrences.
Donald Trump’s election has turbo-charged expectations that reflationary US-centric policies will drive global, and in particular US growth and inflation in 2017, that the Fed’s hiking cycle will step up a gear and that US yields and equities and the dollar will climb further, heaping pressure on emerging economies and asset prices.
But analysts and markets may now be getting ahead of themselves.
My core reasoning is that US inflation may not rise as fast expected, due to lags in the implementation of Trump’s planned fiscal policy loosening and immigration curbs, residual slack in the US labour market and disinflationary impact of higher US yields and a stronger dollar.
As a result, the FOMC, which will see important personnel changes in early 2017, may argue that the market has already done some its work and not be as hawkish as expected.
In this scenario, US short-end rates could lose ground while long-end rates continue to push higher, resulting in a steepening of a still not very steep US rates curve.
One corollary is that factors which have wakened the euro may lose traction as 2017 progresses.
US GDP data weakest of a disappointing lot
Data released today show that Q1 2017 real GDP growth:
In the US slowed to 0.7 quarter-on-quarter (qoq) annualised, from 2.1% qoq in Q4 2016 – the weakest growth rate in three years (see Figure 1);
In the UK halved to 0.3% qoq – the weakest growth rate in a year;
In France slowed to 0.3% qoq from 0.5% qoq in Q4 2016; and
In Spain rose to 0.8% qoq from 0.7% qoq in Q4 2016.
The rise in bond yields in developed economies in the past 6 weeks remains one of the over-riding themes as we head into the last seven days of the US presidential campaigns.
Markets are now fretting about the implications for global growth and asset valuations and ultimately whether elevated global risk appetite will correct more forcefully.
Higher international commodity prices, a pick-up in global GDP growth in Q3 and early Q4 and easing deflation fears suggest that interest rate policies in developed economies may have reached an important inflexion point – in line with the view I expressed six weeks ago.
Developed central banks may refrain from loosening monetary policy further near-term, with the exception of the RBNZ and possibly ECB. At the very least, policy-makers will tweak a discourse which has largely focused on doing “whatever it takes”.
Recent US data have paved the paved the way for a 14th December Fed hike, conditional on Democrat candidate Hilary Clinton wining the 8th November US presidential elections.
But with the exception of the Fed and possibly a handful of EM central banks, rate hikes are a story for the latter part of 2017 (perhaps) while further rate cuts remain on the cards in Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and India.
Higher global yields and still uncertain US election outcome are taming global equities and volatility has spiked but EM currencies have still managed to eek out modest gains.
Assuming Hilary Clinton wins next week, I would expect the initial reaction to be a rally in global equities, EM currencies and Dollar and an underperformance of safe-haven assets.
But I would also expect market pricing for a December Fed hike to rise a little further, which could in turn eventually curtail any rally in global equities and EM currencies.
In this scenario, the Dollar would likely end the year stronger, as per my January forecast of a third consecutive year of albeit more modest Dollar gains.
Whether global risk appetite avoids its early 2016 fate will depend on the interconnected factors of underlying macro data and the Fed’s credibility. In any case, market volatility could spike in the run-up to March 2017.
The self-reinforcing sell-off in Sterling and UK bonds has only very recently abated, with markets seemingly taken some comfort from a number of factors including the only modest slowdown in UK GDP growth to 0.5% qoq in Q3.
But optimism over UK GDP data is not warranted as growth has become more unbalanced and slowed in August-September despite a significant easing in UK monetary policy.
Paradox of acute uncertainty and strong consensus viewsOlivier Desbarres
There appears to be a quasi-universal belief that 2017 will be characterised by acute uncertainty, with the list of difficult-to-predict economic and political variables growing exponentially in recent months.
These include the paths which Donald Trump will tread in the US and Theresa May in the UK, the Fed’s reaction function, the future of the eurozone and EU with European elections looming, the perennial question of China’s exchange rate policy and outlook for oil prices.
And yet, there is already it would seem a set of strong consensus views about the direction which economic variables and financial markets will follow in 2017.
US reflationary policies are expected to rule, boosting already decent US economic growth, inflation and US equities, in turn forcing the Fed to adopt a far more hawkish stance than in 2015-2016 and pushing US yields and dollar higher.
At the same time, President-elect Trump’s penchant for protectionism, alongside a strong dollar and higher US yields, are seen as major headwinds for indebted emerging economies reliant on trade and by implication for emerging currencies, bonds and equities. These seemingly include the Mexican Peso and Chinese Renminbi.
Moreover, the consensus forecast is that at the very least EUR/USD will fall below parity, having got close in December.
The perception of acute uncertainty is not totally incompatible with seemingly well-anchored forecasts but they do make uncomfortable bed-fellows.
Some of the uncertainties which have gained prominence can be put to rest, for now at least. At the same time, some of the sure-fire trades currently advocated may struggle to stand the test of time, in my view.
Marine Le Pen is very unlikely to become the next French President, the Italian banking sector will not be allowed to implode and the euro may end the year on a strong note.
Emerging market currencies have showed greater poise in the past few weeks, with a number of central banks showing both the appetite and the room to support their currencies. This should be borne in mind.
French politics, UK macro data and possible GBP/EUR downsideOlivier Desbarres
• The GBP/EUR cross is at year-highs but continues to struggle to breach the 1.20 mark, as it did on a number of occasions in the second half of 2016.
• Sterling has been buoyed by British Prime Minister Theresa May’s call for early general elections on 8th June while the euro remains in reasonably narrow trading ranges as we head into Sunday’s French presidential election first round.
• With four presidential candidates polling between 18.5% and 23.5%, it is still a close call.
• But I am sticking to my core scenario that independent centre-left candidate Emmanuel Macron will fill one of the top two spots to make it to the 7th May run-off, which I my view would be welcomed by French financial markets and the euro even if markets remain jittery over the next fortnight.
• At the same time, the ever-changing political scene in the UK can do little near-term to avert the headwinds to GDP growth stemming from falling real wages and retail sales.
• With this in mind, I see the risk to GBP/EUR biased to the downside in coming weeks, particularly if both Macron and Republican candidate François Fillon earn their place in the second round.
The past year has been remarkable with political precedents set in the US, UK and France, still record-low central bank policy rates in most developed economies and financial markets and macro data at all-time or multi-year highs (and lows).
Olivier Desbarres - Hawkish Pendulum May Have Swung Too FarOlivier Desbarres
I have long argued that the risk of a collapse in global economic growth and inflation was over-stated and more recently that major central banks had likely reached an important inflexion point.
A global recession and global deflation have seemingly been averted and central bank policy rate cuts and extensions of quantitative easing programs have become rarer occurrences.
Donald Trump’s election has turbo-charged expectations that reflationary US-centric policies will drive global, and in particular US growth and inflation in 2017, that the Fed’s hiking cycle will step up a gear and that US yields and equities and the dollar will climb further, heaping pressure on emerging economies and asset prices.
But analysts and markets may now be getting ahead of themselves.
My core reasoning is that US inflation may not rise as fast expected, due to lags in the implementation of Trump’s planned fiscal policy loosening and immigration curbs, residual slack in the US labour market and disinflationary impact of higher US yields and a stronger dollar.
As a result, the FOMC, which will see important personnel changes in early 2017, may argue that the market has already done some its work and not be as hawkish as expected.
In this scenario, US short-end rates could lose ground while long-end rates continue to push higher, resulting in a steepening of a still not very steep US rates curve.
One corollary is that factors which have wakened the euro may lose traction as 2017 progresses.
US GDP data weakest of a disappointing lot
Data released today show that Q1 2017 real GDP growth:
In the US slowed to 0.7 quarter-on-quarter (qoq) annualised, from 2.1% qoq in Q4 2016 – the weakest growth rate in three years (see Figure 1);
In the UK halved to 0.3% qoq – the weakest growth rate in a year;
In France slowed to 0.3% qoq from 0.5% qoq in Q4 2016; and
In Spain rose to 0.8% qoq from 0.7% qoq in Q4 2016.
The rise in bond yields in developed economies in the past 6 weeks remains one of the over-riding themes as we head into the last seven days of the US presidential campaigns.
Markets are now fretting about the implications for global growth and asset valuations and ultimately whether elevated global risk appetite will correct more forcefully.
Higher international commodity prices, a pick-up in global GDP growth in Q3 and early Q4 and easing deflation fears suggest that interest rate policies in developed economies may have reached an important inflexion point – in line with the view I expressed six weeks ago.
Developed central banks may refrain from loosening monetary policy further near-term, with the exception of the RBNZ and possibly ECB. At the very least, policy-makers will tweak a discourse which has largely focused on doing “whatever it takes”.
Recent US data have paved the paved the way for a 14th December Fed hike, conditional on Democrat candidate Hilary Clinton wining the 8th November US presidential elections.
But with the exception of the Fed and possibly a handful of EM central banks, rate hikes are a story for the latter part of 2017 (perhaps) while further rate cuts remain on the cards in Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and India.
Higher global yields and still uncertain US election outcome are taming global equities and volatility has spiked but EM currencies have still managed to eek out modest gains.
Assuming Hilary Clinton wins next week, I would expect the initial reaction to be a rally in global equities, EM currencies and Dollar and an underperformance of safe-haven assets.
But I would also expect market pricing for a December Fed hike to rise a little further, which could in turn eventually curtail any rally in global equities and EM currencies.
In this scenario, the Dollar would likely end the year stronger, as per my January forecast of a third consecutive year of albeit more modest Dollar gains.
Whether global risk appetite avoids its early 2016 fate will depend on the interconnected factors of underlying macro data and the Fed’s credibility. In any case, market volatility could spike in the run-up to March 2017.
The self-reinforcing sell-off in Sterling and UK bonds has only very recently abated, with markets seemingly taken some comfort from a number of factors including the only modest slowdown in UK GDP growth to 0.5% qoq in Q3.
But optimism over UK GDP data is not warranted as growth has become more unbalanced and slowed in August-September despite a significant easing in UK monetary policy.
Frequent u-turns in the Fed’s policy stance, central banks’ lack of monetary policy credibility, currency wars and gyrations in macro data are being blamed for financial market volatility and record lows in government bond yields. The forthcoming EU referendum has also buffeted UK financial markets.
But on the whole, financial markets and macro data have since 1 April showed a far greater degree of stability than in preceding quarters.
US interest rate, equity and currency markets have weathered the gyrations in the Fed’s policy stance and the ebbs and flows in US data. German and Japanese government bond yields have fallen but ultimately been less volatile than in Q1. The World Equity Index has also been constrained in a reasonably narrow range, thanks at least in part to signs that global GDP growth stabilised in Q1.
This relative stability has not been confined to the dollar. So far, Q2 2016 has been the least volatile quarter since January 2015 – as defined by the low-high range using daily data – for most major nominal effective exchange rates (NEERs). These include developed and EM currencies, as well as commodity and non-commodity currencies. Among G7 currencies, the euro NEER has been particularly stable in a 2.1% range.
The picture is also one of relative calm in emerging markets, with the pick-up in foreign capital inflows in April and June and in commodity prices since March helping to stabilise EM currencies without central banks having to draw on still significant FX reserves.
Commodity prices, including crude oil, have risen sharply so far in Q2 but their volatility has remained in line with historical standards, particularly in recent weeks. This has contributed to greater stability in commodity currencies, with the exception of the Australian dollar.
If anything, this lack of directionality has forced financial market players to be light-footed and adopt short-term tactical strategies. The question now is whether this relative calm is here to stay or whether it augurs more violent corrections as was the case earlier this year.
The UK referendum on EU accession has the potential to be far more destabilising to financial markets than the BoJ’s policy meeting on 16 June and in particular the Fed’s meeting the day before. While UK markets would likely feel the brunt of a decision to leave the EU, the euro would also likely weaken and global equity markets conceivably sell off.
The Fed’s policy meeting on 27th July could also prove disruptive at a time of potentially reduced summer-liquidity.
Bond markets remain in focus after recent curve inversionHantec Markets
Economic data for the US is key to how bond yields respond and how this impacts across major markets. The first week of the month is always jam packed with tier one data and this one could be key for the dollar. We look at the impact on forex, equities and commodities.
Olivier desbarres what you may have missed and why it mattersOlivier Desbarres
Financial Expert Olivier Desbarres looks back at the financial news from the 2014 Christmas period. Highlighting the important snippets of worldwide news, Olivier discusses what implications these financial news could mean for the global economies.
UK retail sales in Q1 likely contracted from Q4 2016, despite their rebound in February.
Falling real wages and slowing household borrowing are likely to further dampen retail sales and consumption growth going forward.
The still large pool of available workers is seemingly limiting their wage-bargaining power, with nominal wage growth falling behind rising inflation.
Moreover, investment growth is still only making a negligible contribution to GDP growth ahead of the British government’s decision to trigger Article 50 on 29th March.
Much of the rise in inflation in recent months is attributable to imported inflation driven by Sterling’s depreciation since November 2015 with little evidence of demand-led inflation.
This situation is reminiscent of 2007-2008 when Sterling’s collapse fuelled imported and in turn headline inflation.
Should Sterling remain broadly unchanged going forward, its year-on-year pace of depreciation, currently around 9%, would slow from June onwards and hit zero towards end-year according to my estimates, in turn dampening imported inflation.
I would expect retailers to stabilise prices to maintain market share in the face of tepid demand and for wage-inflation expectations to remain modest. This was certainly the case in the 12 months to September 2009 with CPI-inflation falling from 5.2% yoy to 1.1% yoy.
The question is whether the BoE is willing to look beyond a potentially temporary rise in UK inflation – as Governor Mark Carney suggested – or whether it tries to short-circuit any self-reinforcing rise in prices.
My base-line scenario is that the BoE will look beyond the current rise in UK inflation, unless at least one of three conditions materialise:
(1) Nominal wage growth accelerates, comfortably outstripping headline inflation and driving consumption growth;
(2) Commercial bank lending picks up significantly; and
(3) Sterling depreciates materially from current levels, exacerbating imported and in turn headline inflation.
I expect that neither (1) or (2) will materialise any time soon and that while risks to Sterling are probably to the downside, Sterling is unlikely to weaken sufficiently to push the BoE into hiking. I would however expect it to keep a possible rate hike firmly on the table.
U.S. MarketBeats provide an overview of quarterly CRE activity and trends, a snapshot of current economic and capital market conditions as well as market-level statistics on key metrics.
The U.S. economy in 2016 was characterized by steady growth in the face of uncertainty. The year began with steep declines in global equity markets in response to concerns about a slowdown in China, the Europe replaced Asia as the focal point of global anxiety after the Brexit vote. In the fourth quarter, the U.S. unexpectedly elected Donald Trump as President. Despite uncertainty, the economy continued to add an average of 180,000 jobs per month during 2016.
The drivers of renewed euro and sterling weaknessHantec Markets
The US dollar is performing strongly once more, but is this underlying strength of the greenback or simply due to weakness elsewhere? We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities markets this week.
So far Sterling and Japanese and European equity markets have borne the brunt of the initial shock, while the FTSE is down only 3.3% since Thursday and most major and emerging market currencies have been reasonably well behaved (see Figure 1).
But there are still far many more questions than answers and the situation remains extremely fluid.
For starters there is no precedent for a country leaving the EU and thus no clear-cut rulebook to rely on. The government has limited institutional capacity to start negotiations with the UK’s 27 EU partners until Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is triggered and no timeline has been provided for when this will happen (assuming it is triggered at all).
Perhaps unsurprisingly given the mammoth task ahead, the Leave campaign leaders have been very short on specifics regarding the mechanics and timing of the UK’s exit from the EU, the likely shape of future trade treaties and national policies such as immigration. Prime Minister Cameron’s de-facto resignation and wholesale changes in personnel in the opposition Labour Party are adding to the head-scratching.
Moreover, it is not one country seeking to leave the EU, but a union of four countries – England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland – which further complicates matters as both Scotland and Northern Ireland seem intent on remaining part of the EU and potentially breaking free from the UK.
At this point in time, all we can do is take stock of what we know (or at least we think we know) and what we don’t know (but can tentatively try to forecast).
I would conclude, as I did in Europe – the Final Countdown (21 June 2016), that the many layers of political, legal, economic and financial uncertainty are likely to keep UK investment, consumption and employment, as well as Sterling on the back-foot for months to come. Financial market volatility is also likely to remain elevated in coming weeks.
In this context the US Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates on hold in coming months and the European Central Bank can probably afford to do little for the time being. The Bank of England is likely to seriously contemplate cutting its policy rate while the Bank of Japan will be under renewed pressure to curb soaring Yen strength.
Of course, British policy-makers and business associations have come out and said the right things in order to limit the carnage and contagion. But they have far more limited room to reflate the economy and fade gyrations in financial markets than they did during the 2008-2009 great financial crisis. They are not in control at this juncture and it is not obvious who is.
Dollar still gains despite geopolitics impacting markets once moreRichard Perry
We take a look at what is driving forex, equities and commodities markets this week. Moves on yield differentials and the US dollar are still key for market direction whilst geopolitical factors are once more impacting.
This month’s update is longer and contains more geopolitics than usual. This is because, for the first time in two generations, the economies of every country in the world are growing (with the possible exception of North Korea). This synchronised global upswing presents new risks and uncertainties.
http://www.jsacs.com/
Trump's Twitter, currency manipulation and the trade dispute are keyHantec Markets
Donald Trump sending out a Twitter storm on currency manipulation and railing against the actions of the Fed have brought in an extra dimension for traders to consider this week. His threats to ratchet up the trade dispute with China also means that geopolitics remain a key factor. We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
Q1 has been a challenging one for the US dollar. Economist Jeremy Cook looks at the global economic and political factors that can impact the dollar, and makes predictions that will be important for global companies to consider.
Baring calamitous February inflation and retail sales data, I expect the Fed to hike rates 25bp on 15th March for the second time in three months, in line with market pricing and my mid-February forecast.
While underlying US inflation has only edged up slowly and payroll growth remains modest, other US data have been reasonably buoyant. The pool of available labour continues to grind lower and regional indicators, national confidence surveys and housing data pushed higher in January-February.
Moreover, normally dovish FOMC members have not made a strong case for a March pause and, along with Chairperson Yellen, have seemingly for now at least not made the Fed hiking cycle conditional on Trump delivering on his promise to loosen fiscal policy.
The big question is what next for the Fed. Its updated forecasts and dot-chart and Yellen’s question-and-answer session will undoubtedly provide some extra colour.
But it may be a little premature for the 17 FOMC members to materially change their forecast for the appropriate pace of hikes for 2017, which stands at 74bps – broadly in line with current market pricing.
The risk to my turn-of-the-year forecast that the Fed may only deliver two hikes this year is probably to the upside. But if the Fed is going to hike once a quarter, it will want to prepare markets conditioned by years of hikes far more modest than predicated by the Fed.
In France, potential presidential candidates have only a week left to meet the Constitutional requirements to become an official candidate in the first round.
My core scenario remains that Fillon will remain in the presidential race, that the first and second rounds due on 23rd April and 7th May will not be pushed back, that Le Pen and Macron will likely make it to the second round run-off and that Le Pen will lose the second round whether she faces Macron or Fillon.
But one should at least entertain the possibility, even if remote, that Jean-Luc Mélenchon, currently fifth in the polls on 12%, will not meet the requirements to be a candidate in the first round – namely the written support of 500 elected sponsors – which could in turn boost support for Socialist candidate Benoit Hamon.
Moreover, it is still conceivable, albeit unlikely, that Fillon will make it to the second round or conversely pull out of the race with Alain Juppé filling his place. Finally, the possibility of this year’s elections being postponed, while extremely slim, merits discussion.
Frequent u-turns in the Fed’s policy stance, central banks’ lack of monetary policy credibility, currency wars and gyrations in macro data are being blamed for financial market volatility and record lows in government bond yields. The forthcoming EU referendum has also buffeted UK financial markets.
But on the whole, financial markets and macro data have since 1 April showed a far greater degree of stability than in preceding quarters.
US interest rate, equity and currency markets have weathered the gyrations in the Fed’s policy stance and the ebbs and flows in US data. German and Japanese government bond yields have fallen but ultimately been less volatile than in Q1. The World Equity Index has also been constrained in a reasonably narrow range, thanks at least in part to signs that global GDP growth stabilised in Q1.
This relative stability has not been confined to the dollar. So far, Q2 2016 has been the least volatile quarter since January 2015 – as defined by the low-high range using daily data – for most major nominal effective exchange rates (NEERs). These include developed and EM currencies, as well as commodity and non-commodity currencies. Among G7 currencies, the euro NEER has been particularly stable in a 2.1% range.
The picture is also one of relative calm in emerging markets, with the pick-up in foreign capital inflows in April and June and in commodity prices since March helping to stabilise EM currencies without central banks having to draw on still significant FX reserves.
Commodity prices, including crude oil, have risen sharply so far in Q2 but their volatility has remained in line with historical standards, particularly in recent weeks. This has contributed to greater stability in commodity currencies, with the exception of the Australian dollar.
If anything, this lack of directionality has forced financial market players to be light-footed and adopt short-term tactical strategies. The question now is whether this relative calm is here to stay or whether it augurs more violent corrections as was the case earlier this year.
The UK referendum on EU accession has the potential to be far more destabilising to financial markets than the BoJ’s policy meeting on 16 June and in particular the Fed’s meeting the day before. While UK markets would likely feel the brunt of a decision to leave the EU, the euro would also likely weaken and global equity markets conceivably sell off.
The Fed’s policy meeting on 27th July could also prove disruptive at a time of potentially reduced summer-liquidity.
Bond markets remain in focus after recent curve inversionHantec Markets
Economic data for the US is key to how bond yields respond and how this impacts across major markets. The first week of the month is always jam packed with tier one data and this one could be key for the dollar. We look at the impact on forex, equities and commodities.
Olivier desbarres what you may have missed and why it mattersOlivier Desbarres
Financial Expert Olivier Desbarres looks back at the financial news from the 2014 Christmas period. Highlighting the important snippets of worldwide news, Olivier discusses what implications these financial news could mean for the global economies.
UK retail sales in Q1 likely contracted from Q4 2016, despite their rebound in February.
Falling real wages and slowing household borrowing are likely to further dampen retail sales and consumption growth going forward.
The still large pool of available workers is seemingly limiting their wage-bargaining power, with nominal wage growth falling behind rising inflation.
Moreover, investment growth is still only making a negligible contribution to GDP growth ahead of the British government’s decision to trigger Article 50 on 29th March.
Much of the rise in inflation in recent months is attributable to imported inflation driven by Sterling’s depreciation since November 2015 with little evidence of demand-led inflation.
This situation is reminiscent of 2007-2008 when Sterling’s collapse fuelled imported and in turn headline inflation.
Should Sterling remain broadly unchanged going forward, its year-on-year pace of depreciation, currently around 9%, would slow from June onwards and hit zero towards end-year according to my estimates, in turn dampening imported inflation.
I would expect retailers to stabilise prices to maintain market share in the face of tepid demand and for wage-inflation expectations to remain modest. This was certainly the case in the 12 months to September 2009 with CPI-inflation falling from 5.2% yoy to 1.1% yoy.
The question is whether the BoE is willing to look beyond a potentially temporary rise in UK inflation – as Governor Mark Carney suggested – or whether it tries to short-circuit any self-reinforcing rise in prices.
My base-line scenario is that the BoE will look beyond the current rise in UK inflation, unless at least one of three conditions materialise:
(1) Nominal wage growth accelerates, comfortably outstripping headline inflation and driving consumption growth;
(2) Commercial bank lending picks up significantly; and
(3) Sterling depreciates materially from current levels, exacerbating imported and in turn headline inflation.
I expect that neither (1) or (2) will materialise any time soon and that while risks to Sterling are probably to the downside, Sterling is unlikely to weaken sufficiently to push the BoE into hiking. I would however expect it to keep a possible rate hike firmly on the table.
U.S. MarketBeats provide an overview of quarterly CRE activity and trends, a snapshot of current economic and capital market conditions as well as market-level statistics on key metrics.
The U.S. economy in 2016 was characterized by steady growth in the face of uncertainty. The year began with steep declines in global equity markets in response to concerns about a slowdown in China, the Europe replaced Asia as the focal point of global anxiety after the Brexit vote. In the fourth quarter, the U.S. unexpectedly elected Donald Trump as President. Despite uncertainty, the economy continued to add an average of 180,000 jobs per month during 2016.
The drivers of renewed euro and sterling weaknessHantec Markets
The US dollar is performing strongly once more, but is this underlying strength of the greenback or simply due to weakness elsewhere? We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities markets this week.
So far Sterling and Japanese and European equity markets have borne the brunt of the initial shock, while the FTSE is down only 3.3% since Thursday and most major and emerging market currencies have been reasonably well behaved (see Figure 1).
But there are still far many more questions than answers and the situation remains extremely fluid.
For starters there is no precedent for a country leaving the EU and thus no clear-cut rulebook to rely on. The government has limited institutional capacity to start negotiations with the UK’s 27 EU partners until Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is triggered and no timeline has been provided for when this will happen (assuming it is triggered at all).
Perhaps unsurprisingly given the mammoth task ahead, the Leave campaign leaders have been very short on specifics regarding the mechanics and timing of the UK’s exit from the EU, the likely shape of future trade treaties and national policies such as immigration. Prime Minister Cameron’s de-facto resignation and wholesale changes in personnel in the opposition Labour Party are adding to the head-scratching.
Moreover, it is not one country seeking to leave the EU, but a union of four countries – England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland – which further complicates matters as both Scotland and Northern Ireland seem intent on remaining part of the EU and potentially breaking free from the UK.
At this point in time, all we can do is take stock of what we know (or at least we think we know) and what we don’t know (but can tentatively try to forecast).
I would conclude, as I did in Europe – the Final Countdown (21 June 2016), that the many layers of political, legal, economic and financial uncertainty are likely to keep UK investment, consumption and employment, as well as Sterling on the back-foot for months to come. Financial market volatility is also likely to remain elevated in coming weeks.
In this context the US Federal Reserve is likely to keep rates on hold in coming months and the European Central Bank can probably afford to do little for the time being. The Bank of England is likely to seriously contemplate cutting its policy rate while the Bank of Japan will be under renewed pressure to curb soaring Yen strength.
Of course, British policy-makers and business associations have come out and said the right things in order to limit the carnage and contagion. But they have far more limited room to reflate the economy and fade gyrations in financial markets than they did during the 2008-2009 great financial crisis. They are not in control at this juncture and it is not obvious who is.
Dollar still gains despite geopolitics impacting markets once moreRichard Perry
We take a look at what is driving forex, equities and commodities markets this week. Moves on yield differentials and the US dollar are still key for market direction whilst geopolitical factors are once more impacting.
This month’s update is longer and contains more geopolitics than usual. This is because, for the first time in two generations, the economies of every country in the world are growing (with the possible exception of North Korea). This synchronised global upswing presents new risks and uncertainties.
http://www.jsacs.com/
Trump's Twitter, currency manipulation and the trade dispute are keyHantec Markets
Donald Trump sending out a Twitter storm on currency manipulation and railing against the actions of the Fed have brought in an extra dimension for traders to consider this week. His threats to ratchet up the trade dispute with China also means that geopolitics remain a key factor. We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities.
Q1 has been a challenging one for the US dollar. Economist Jeremy Cook looks at the global economic and political factors that can impact the dollar, and makes predictions that will be important for global companies to consider.
Baring calamitous February inflation and retail sales data, I expect the Fed to hike rates 25bp on 15th March for the second time in three months, in line with market pricing and my mid-February forecast.
While underlying US inflation has only edged up slowly and payroll growth remains modest, other US data have been reasonably buoyant. The pool of available labour continues to grind lower and regional indicators, national confidence surveys and housing data pushed higher in January-February.
Moreover, normally dovish FOMC members have not made a strong case for a March pause and, along with Chairperson Yellen, have seemingly for now at least not made the Fed hiking cycle conditional on Trump delivering on his promise to loosen fiscal policy.
The big question is what next for the Fed. Its updated forecasts and dot-chart and Yellen’s question-and-answer session will undoubtedly provide some extra colour.
But it may be a little premature for the 17 FOMC members to materially change their forecast for the appropriate pace of hikes for 2017, which stands at 74bps – broadly in line with current market pricing.
The risk to my turn-of-the-year forecast that the Fed may only deliver two hikes this year is probably to the upside. But if the Fed is going to hike once a quarter, it will want to prepare markets conditioned by years of hikes far more modest than predicated by the Fed.
In France, potential presidential candidates have only a week left to meet the Constitutional requirements to become an official candidate in the first round.
My core scenario remains that Fillon will remain in the presidential race, that the first and second rounds due on 23rd April and 7th May will not be pushed back, that Le Pen and Macron will likely make it to the second round run-off and that Le Pen will lose the second round whether she faces Macron or Fillon.
But one should at least entertain the possibility, even if remote, that Jean-Luc Mélenchon, currently fifth in the polls on 12%, will not meet the requirements to be a candidate in the first round – namely the written support of 500 elected sponsors – which could in turn boost support for Socialist candidate Benoit Hamon.
Moreover, it is still conceivable, albeit unlikely, that Fillon will make it to the second round or conversely pull out of the race with Alain Juppé filling his place. Finally, the possibility of this year’s elections being postponed, while extremely slim, merits discussion.
In the past week European and global politics, strong US growth data, mixed global macro numbers and eurozone, Chinese and Indian central bank policy have eclipsed Trump-mania.
What is perhaps more remarkable is markets’ reasonably benign, “risk-on” reaction, bar the euro’s sell-off in the wake of today’s ECB policy meeting.
One interpretation is that markets have become complacent to the risks presented by President Trump’s constellation of pseudo-policies, surging nationalism in Europe, the UK’s uncertain economic future and continued capital outflows from China.
I have a somewhat different take, namely that markets are rightly discounting some of the more extreme and perverse scenarios, including:
Protectionist US policies coupled with higher US yields and a strong dollar collapsing tepid emerging market, and eventually global, economic growth;
The “no” vote in the Italian referendum leading to the economic collapse of the European Union’s third largest economy;
Surging European nationalism culminating in the collapse of the eurozone and/or European Union;
The British government opting to sacrifice growth in exchange for a hard version of Brexit and;
Capital outflows from China ultimately forcing policy-makers into accepting a Renminbi collapse and shocking a corporate sector with significant dollar-debt.
No UK rate hikes this year and room for further Euro upsideOlivier Desbarres
The odds of a 25bp Bank of England rate hike at next week’s policy meeting are all but dead in my view following tepid GPD growth of 0.3% qoq in Q2 2017.
Moreover, UK GDP growth and inflation dynamics, allied to forthcoming changes in the composition of the Monetary Policy Council, point to the record-low policy rate of 0.25% remaining on hold for the remainder of the year.
Forecasting European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy, including the timing and modalities of changes to its Quantitative Easing program, is arguably a far trickier proposition.
While the ECB may be incentivised to slow the current rapid pace of Euro appreciation, at this stage I do not expect the ECB to try and to stop, let alone reverse, the Euro’s upward path.
The Economic Outlook for 2017 by Kevin LingsSTANLIB
South Africa is searching for higher economic growth in a global environment increasingly shaped by rising nationalism, higher levels of trade protection and a fall-off in the effectiveness of monetary policy.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q2 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the U.K.’s Article 50 notice and the FOMC’s current path towards normalization. The report also examines the Trump Administration’s first 100 days in office and current business sentiment.
While equity and commodity markets have recovered, it is an almost consensus view that already tepid global economic growth in H2 2015 likely weakened furthered in Q3 and shows few signs of recovering near-term,
Governments, lacking in both leadership and fiscal-reflation headroom, have passed the buck to central banks struggling to hit multiple growth, inflation and financial stability targets.
However, talk of global recession let alone economic collapse is somewhat overdone and I reiterate my long-held view that the global growth story is a cause for concern, not panic (17 December 2014).
Degroof Petercam Asset Management's chief economist and asset allocator look into whether the reflation trade is for real and inflation is back in the cards.
Sticking to forecasts: Fed summer hike, Dollar hat-trick still on the cards, ...Olivier Desbarres
The Federal Reserve’s minutes of its 27th April policy meeting released last week set the tone for a possible June or July rate hike. On balance, recent US and global data are unlikely to have fundamentally changed the Federal Reserve’s view that a summer hike may be appropriate.
This is line with my long-held forecast that the Federal Reserve would likely hike once or twice this year, with the first hike in June. I recently updated my forecast to a July hike as it gives the Fed more time to assess US and global data and the result of the UK referendum on 23rd June. The risk is that the very threat of a hike derails financial markets sufficiently for the Federal Reserve to postpone its second-hike-in-a-decade to later this year.
Surprisingly, this message was seemingly absent from the wafer-thin policy statement the Federal Reserve issued on 27th April.
I maintain my January forecast that the dollar’s nominal effective exchange rate (NEER)[1] may well end the year slightly higher, propelled by the resilience of the US economy and the Federal Reserve going against the global trend of easier (or at least easy) monetary policy.
Conversely, the recent modest weakening in emerging market currencies is likely to extend, as per my prediction in early April. Macro data are too weak to reassure markets that any economy can single-handedly steady slowing global growth but strong enough for the Federal Reserve to force markets to reprice the risk of tighter US policy.
My core scenario has been that the UK would vote to remain in the EU and, if anything, that conviction has strengthened following recent surveys. The lifting of this uncertainty would see a reasonably competitive sterling appreciate, albeit modestly given the UK’s underlying structural deficiencies.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q1 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic and market factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the Fed's recent activity and its intentions to raise benchmark interest rates three times in 2017. The report also focuses on how the new U.S. administration will impact domestic and global economies.
Over the past thirty years the neutral real interest rate across developed economies has declined substantially. Evidence suggests that secular rather than transitory factors are driving its decline. A lower neutral interest rate implies that the cumulative amount of tightening required for monetary policy to become neutral is much smaller than previously thought.
Standpoint: Global Reflation by Kevin Lings STANLIB
Fears of sustained deflation and stagnant growth in the United States and Europe have been replaced by a more optimistic growth outlook as well as concerns about rising inflation. This has driven developed market equities higher, but also weakened major bond markets.
OXBOW ADVISORS APRIL 2017 MARKET COMMENTSKeys Oakley
The stock market’s movement in 2016 was most Unusual, Unpredictable, and downright Crazy compared to previous years. Between politics and economics, it was a classic case study of extremes...
Explore our comprehensive data analysis project presentation on predicting product ad campaign performance. Learn how data-driven insights can optimize your marketing strategies and enhance campaign effectiveness. Perfect for professionals and students looking to understand the power of data analysis in advertising. for more details visit: https://bostoninstituteofanalytics.org/data-science-and-artificial-intelligence/
Chatty Kathy - UNC Bootcamp Final Project Presentation - Final Version - 5.23...John Andrews
SlideShare Description for "Chatty Kathy - UNC Bootcamp Final Project Presentation"
Title: Chatty Kathy: Enhancing Physical Activity Among Older Adults
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Project Team: Jay Requarth, Jana Avery, John Andrews, Dr. Dick Davis II, Nee Buntoum, Nam Yeongjin & Mat Nicholas
1. 1
H2 2017: Something old, something new, something revisited
As we head towards the second half of 2017 and the one-year anniversary of the UK
referendum on EU membership, many themes which have pre-occupied financial markets
in the past 12 months are likely to continue dominating headlines.
These include Donald Trump’s US presidency and its longevity, merits and scope for tax
reforms and infrastructural spending, Brexit negotiations which officially started on 19th
June and the resilience of the ongoing recovery in global GDP growth.
Global GDP growth rose modestly in Q1 2017 to around 3.12% year-on-year from 3.06% in
Q4 2016 and a multi-year low of 2.8% yoy in Q2 2016, according to my estimates.
But the global manufacturing PMI averaged 52.7 in April-May, down slightly from 52.9 in Q1
2017, suggesting global GDP growth may not have accelerated further in Q2. This could in
turn, at the margin, delay or temper policy rate hikes and/or unwinding of QE programs.
Non-Japan Asian currencies have in the past month been even more stable than in the
preceding month, in line with my expectations, but a more pronounced policy change –
particularly in China – remains a possibility.
Other themes, such as the timing and magnitude of higher policy rates in developed
economies and falling international oil prices, have recently come into clearer focus and
will likely be of central importance in H2.
For the UK, I am sticking to my view that a 25bp policy rate hike this year is still a low
probability event and I see little chance of an August hike.
The uncertainty over the MPC’s interest rate path and the government’s stance on Brexit
complicate any forecast of Sterling near and medium-term but I continue to see the risks
biased towards further depreciation.
In France, the hype surrounding Emmanuel Macron’s presidential and legislative election
victories is already giving way to whether, when and how smoothly the LREM-MoDem
rainbow government can push through its reformist agenda.
Finally, while most European elections are now thankfully behind us, European financial
markets are likely to attach great importance to the outcome of Germany’s general election
on 27th September.
Conversely, the burning topic of rising European nationalism and future of the
eurozone/EU has lost traction following recent presidential and/or legislative elections in
France, the UK, Netherlands and Austria.
2. 2
Second half will see old challenges fade while new one rear their heads
As we head towards the mid-point of 2017 and the one-year anniversary of the UK referendum on EU
membership, many themes which have pre-occupied financial markets in the past 12 months are likely to
continue dominating headlines.
These include Donald Trump’s US presidency and its longevity, merits and scope for tax reforms and
infrastructural spending, Brexit negotiations which officially started on 19th
June and the resilience of the
ongoing recovery in global GDP growth. Non-Japan Asian currencies have in the past month been even
more stable than in the preceding month, in line with my expectations, but a more pronounced policy
change – particularly in China – remains a possibility.
Other themes, such as the timing and magnitude of higher policy rates in developed economies and falling
international oil prices, have recently come into clearer focus and will likely be of central importance in H2.
Moreover, in France, the hype surrounding Emmanuel Macron’s presidential and legislative election
victories is already giving way to whether, when and how smoothly the LREM-MoDem rainbow government
can push through its reformist agenda. Finally, while most European elections are now thankfully behind
us, European financial markets are likely to attach great importance to the outcome of Germany’s general
election on 27th
September.
Conversely, the burning topic of rising European nationalism and future of the eurozone/EU has lost
traction following recent presidential and/or legislative elections in France, the UK, Netherlands and Austria.
Developed central banks interest rate policy – Incremental hawkishness
Central banks in the US, UK, Eurozone and Canada have become more hawkish in recent months, albeit to
clearly different degrees.
US – Two hikes in the bag but appetite for a third let alone fourth hike this year likely to be tested
The US Federal Reserve has hiked its policy rate 50bp year-to-date but markets, which are pricing only
11bp of hikes for the remainder of the year, are clearly divided as to whether FOMC members will stick to
their end-2016 forecast that three hikes would be appropriate in 2017. My core scenario is that the Fed will
not hike rates again in 2017 although this is not a high conviction call which I will revisit shortly.
UK – A hawkish surprise but still high hurdle for actual rate hike
The UK rates market – dormant since the Bank of England (BoE) MPC cut its policy rate 25bp last August –
has sprung to the life after three out of eight MPC members voted in favour of a hike at the 15th
June
meeting and MPC member Andrew Haldane (who voted for unchanged rates) talked up the possibility of a
summer hike. Markets are now pricing 14bp of rate hikes by end-year, with some analysts expecting the
MPC to pull the trigger at its next meeting on 3rd
August.
I am sticking to my view, expressed in GBP – Hawkish Surprise Presents Selling Opportunity (15 June
2017), that a 25bp rate hike this year is still a low probability event and I see little chance of a hike as early
3. 3
as August. The thrust of my argument is that the economy is still soft and the MPC does not have a quorum
in favour of a hike. This view was arguably reinforced by Governor Mark Carney’s re-scheduled Mansion
House Speech on 20th
June which made very clear that he sees no justification for a rate hike near-term.
One of the three MPC members who dissented in June – Kristin Forbes – will step down from the MPC
before the August meeting (her three-year term has expired) and will be replaced by LSE Economics
Professor Silvana Tenreyro. While her monetary policy view is unknown, she has been a vocal opponent to
Brexit. Historically, new MPC members have tended to vote along with the consensus view and not voted
against BoE governors. For example, it took MPC member Michael Saunders – whose first policy meeting
was in September 2016 – nine meetings before he dissented in favour of a hike.
It is therefore conceivable that the August policy meeting will see six members voting for unchanged rates
and two members (Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders) voting for a 25bp hike, which markets would
interpret as a dovish retreat, in my view. If Haldane votes for a hike, this would yield a five versus three
outcome – i.e. no different from the June meeting. Even if a fourth member dissented in favour of a hike,
this would lead to split vote. Assuming that Governor Mark Carney, who has the casting vote, continues to
vote for no change then the policy rate would remain on hold.
Figure 1: Sterling choppy as markets digest MPC decision and Brexit negotiations but risk to downside
Source: Bank of England, investing.com
Put differently, there are two scenarios in which the MPC would hikes rates and I think both are unlikely
near-term:
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
Oct 16 Nov 16 Dec 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mar 17 Apr 17 May 17 Jun 17
Sterling Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (23 April 2010 = 100)
General
election
MPC
meeting
4. 4
1. Haldane (or another MPC member) and Governor Carney vote along with McCafferty and Saunders in
favour of a hike (and in this four vs four split Carney’s vote effectively counts as two); or
2. Carney votes for no change but Haldane and at least two other members vote join McCafferty and
Saunders in favour of a hike.
Sterling has weakened about 0.5% and 0.2% respectively versus the US Dollar and Euro since my
research note on 15th
in which I argued that the MPC’s hawkish surprised presented an opportunity to sell
Sterling. The Sterling Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) has weakened about 0.3% according to
my estimates (see Figure 1). The uncertainty over the MPC’s interest rate path and the government’s
stance on Brexit complicate any forecast of Sterling near and medium-term but I continue to see the risks
biased towards further depreciation.
Global growth rose further in Q1 2017 but signs that it stabilised in Q2
The majority of countries have now released final or first/second estimates of Q1 2017 GDP and I estimate,
using IMF purchasing-power-parity weights, that GDP growth rose modestly in Q1 2017 to around 3.12%
year-on-year from 3.06% in Q4 2016 and a multi-year low of 2.8% yoy in Q2 2016 (see Figure 2).
Figure 2: Global GDP growth picked up in Q1 but may have flat-lined in Q2
Source: National Statistics Offices, IMF, Markit
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
2012Q4 2013Q2 2013Q4 2014Q2 2014Q4 2015Q2 2015Q4 2016Q2 2016Q4 2017Q2
Global manufacturing PMI, left scale Global real GDP, % year-on-year (IMF methodology)
5. 5
Seventeen of the world’s 25 largest economies recorded faster year-on-year growth in the quarter, although
the gains were modest in the US and China (see Figure 3). Still very low global real policy rates are
seemingly still helping drive albeit modest gains in global growth while political uncertainty, including in the
US, UK, mainland Europe, South Korea and Brazil, has it would seem so far not caused material damage.
Figure 3: 17 out of 25 major economies saw faster growth in Q1 2017 but gains were mostly small
Source: National Statistics Offices, IMF
The global manufacturing PMI, which has historically been well correlated with global GDP growth,
averaged 52.7 in April-May, down slightly from 52.9 in Q1 2017 which suggests that global GDP growth
may have struggled to accelerate further in Q2 (see Figure 2). June 2017 PMI data will be released in early
July. The IMF, US Federal Reserve, ECB and other major central banks have generally been reasonably
upbeat about the global macro picture but signs that GDP growth may be stabilising could, at the margin,
delay or temper policy rate hikes and/or unwinding of QE programs (in the US and eurozone).
Asian currencies still broadly on the straight-and-narrow
Non-Japan Asian (NJA) currencies experienced only modest moves in the month to 26th
May. Bar the
Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) NEER which appreciated about 1.1% and the Indian Rupee (INR) NEER which
fell about 1.7%, NJA NEERs appreciated or depreciated by less than 1%. The question was whether this
relative calm in NJA currency markets would likely become more entrenched or whether FX flows and/or
central bank policy would likely fuel greater volatility or see some currencies adopt a clearer direction.
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
US(16.5%)
China(14.7%)
India(6.2%)
Japan(4.7%)
Germany(3.7%)
Russia(3.4%)
Brazil(3.2%)
France(2.6%)
UK(2.5%)
Indonesia(2.3%)
Italy(2.3%)
Mexico(2%)
Korea(1.7%)
Spain(1.6%)
Canada(1.5%)
Turkey(1.4%)
Australia(1%)
Taiwan(1.0%)
Thailand(1%)
Poland(0.9%)
Netherlands(0.8%)
SouthAfrica(0.7%)
Philippines(0.6%)
Singapore(0.4%)
HongKong(0.4%)
TOTAL
Q4 2016 Q1 2017
Real GDP, % year-on-year (figure in brackets is share of world GDP in PPP-terms)
6. 6
I concluded that, at this juncture, few central banks – including the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)
and People’s Bank of China (PBoC) – faced overwhelming economic reasons to markedly alter their
currencies’ paths via FX intervention and/or interest rate policy. There was however perhaps a case for
Bank Negara Malaysia to favour a weaker or at least stable Ringgit NEER which had appreciated about
2.7% since mid-April (see Asian currencies keeping their head in a world losing its own, 26 May 2017).
This forecast has proved broadly accurate. Of the nine major NJA currencies, six have experienced even
smaller changes in their NEERs in the past month than they had done in the prior month (see Figure 4). In
particular, the INR, Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) and Singapore Dollar (SGD) have been broadly unchanged.
The MYR NEER has weakened 0.5% following a 1.1% gain.
Only three currencies – the Chinese Renminbi (CNY), Philippines Peso (PHP) and Korean Won (KRW) –
have experienced grater moves but only the KRW has been truly volatile with a 1.5% fall following a 0.6%
rally.
Figure 4: Asian currencies in past month have on the whole been even less volatile than in prior month
Source: IMF, investing.com
European nationalist parties on back foot but acute challenges ahead for new governments
The recent general elections in France and UK have further dispelled the notion, which gained much
traction in 2015-2016, that European nationalist and/or populist parties enjoy great momentum, will reach
the highest echelons of power and are on the verge of ultimately shaping the future of the eurozone and
EU. The receding threat to the future of the EU and/or eurozone is undoubtedly a source of support for the
euro, in my view (see GBP – Hawkish Surprise Presents Selling Opportunity, 15 June 2017).
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
CNY THB INR IDR SGD MYR TWD PHP KRW
Change between 26 April and 26 May Change since 26 May
% change in Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER)
7. 7
There is little doubt that in Europe the political, economic and social status-quo is being tested, that
nationalism has been on the ascendancy, and that nationalist/populist parties have had greater influence
on the political landscape than in the past. However, presidential and/or legislative elections in France, the
UK, Netherlands and Austria in the past six months support my long-held view that European nationalist
parties are still falling short, failing to cause widely-forecast major political upsets and will in most cases fail
to reach the highest political echelons or exercise true power, let alone dismantle the eurozone and/or EU
(see Nationalism, French presidential elections and the euro, 18 November 2016, and Black swans and
white doves, 8 December 2016).),
France – Bitter sweet victories for President Macron and his rainbow government
President Emmanuel Macron has re-written the rules of French politics. He comprehensively beat National
Front leader Marine Le Pen by two votes to one in the second round of the presidential elections on 7th
May
to become France’s youngest ever president and the first centrist president since Valéry Giscard d’Estaing
in 1974 (see 2017 French elections – They think it’s all over…it isn’t, 11 May 2017). Marine Le Pen’s share
of the vote was the second lowest ever percentage won by the runner-up in a French presidential election
and below the 43% historical average.
In legislative elections held on 11th
and 18th
June, La République en Marche (LREM), a centrist party which
Macron started from scratch only 14 months ago, won 308 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly – an
absolute majority of 19 seats (see Figure 5).
Figure 5: Macron’s LREM party in conjunction with MoDem won a comfortable parliamentary majority
Source: Conseil Constitutionnel
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400 Number of deputies in 577-seat National Assembly
Majority: 289
8. 8
In the process, LREM crushed the heavyweight centre-left Socialist Party and centre-right Republican Party
which lost respectively 255 and 83 seats – by far their worst performances under the Fifth Republic (see
Figures 6 and 7). The centrist MoDem party led by veteran politician Francois Bayrou – which had only 2
seats in the outgoing parliament – is now the third largest party with 42 seats. As a result, the LREM-
MoDem ruling coalition has 350 seats, comfortably above the absolute majority of 289 seats.
Figure 6: LREM, MoDem and France Insoumise biggest winners, Republicans and Socialists biggest losers
Source: Conseil Constitutionnel
Importantly, the strongly pro-EU Macron and LREM have also consigned the anti-EU National Front to the
back-pages of French politics. The National Front came third with 8.8% of the national vote but won only
1.4% of the total seats. So while it maintains a loyal following, Marine Le Pen’s party only managed to
increase its seats from two to eight and remains a fringe party within the National Assembly.
Macron’s rainbow government and party have captured the imagination, both at home and abroad, and
Macron has so far been impressive in his dealings with foreign leaders, including US President Donald
Trump and German Chancellor Merkel.
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
Change in number of deputies in 577-seat National Assembly (versus outgoing parliament)
9. 9
Figure 7: French Republican Party significantly weakened, Socialist Party on life support
Source: Conseil Constitutionnel
However, Macron and LREM have failed to win the hearts and minds of a majority of the French electorate
which will likely become apparent when the government tables unpopular reforms. For starters, the LREM-
MoDem coalition fell well short of opinion polls which had predicted that it would win between 400 and 450
seats. More importantly, LREM-MoDem won only 49% of the national vote in the second round on 18th
June, which thanks to the hybrid first-past-the-post electoral system translated into 60.7% of the seats 1
(See Figure 8).
1 To be exact LREM won 44% of the votes in the second round and 306 seats (53.2% of total) – LREM had already won 2 seats in
the firstround of voting on 11th June.
The Socialist Party, the largest party in the outgoing parliament with 284 deputies (just short of a
parliamentary majority), lost a barely believable 90% of its seats. With only 29 seats it is now only the
fourth largest party and a long way behind the LREM and Republicans. To put this in perspective, it
has only two seats more than the far-left France Insoumise, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon who came a
very close fourth in the first round of the French President elections, and Communist Party which in
aggregate won 27 seats.
This comes after a disastrous presidential election in which the Socialist candidate Benoit Hamon
was a distant fifth in the first round with only 6.4% of the vote and Francois Hollande’s weak
presidency. The Socialist Party is now arguably a political minnow and it debateable whether and
when it can once again be a major political force in French politics.
The Republican Party lost 83 seats and with 113 deputies only has just over a third of the LREM
deputies. It is still the second largest party but only has 19.6% of the seats. To put this in perspective,
the Labour Party in the UK, the main opposition party, won 40% of the seats in the 650-seat House of
Commons following the 8th
June general election.
10. 10
Figure 8: Comfortable parliamentary majority for LREM-MoDem coalition masks modest share of national vote
Source: Conseil Constitutionnel
Moreover, voter turnout was the lowest ever under the Fifth Republic with only 38.4% of registered voters
casting a valid vote (42.6% voted but 10% of votes cast were blank or null and void). In effect, only 16.5%
and 2.3%, respectively, of the registered electorate voted for LREM and MoDem (see Figure 9).
Figure 9: Fewer than one in five registered voters endorsed a ruling coalition with a 61-seat majority
Source: Conseil Constitutionnel
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
% of seats % of votes (second round)
Outcome of the 2017 elections for the National Assembly
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45 Votes won as % of registered voters
11. 11
So fewer than one in five registered voters endorsed a ruling coalition with a 61-seat majority. In
comparison, in the 8th
June British general election, 29% of registered British voters voted for the ruling
Conservative party which was deemed to have performed very poorly (see UK Election: Clutching Defeat
from the Jaws of Victory, 9 June 2017).
Recall that in the first round of the French presidential elections on 23rd
April, which was contested by 11
candidates and was the closest ever, Macron came first with a below-historical-average 23.75% of valid
votes and an even smaller 18.2% of registered voters (see 7 reasons why Macron will become president
and market implications, 25 April 2017). It is no coincidence that this ratio of 18.2% is very similar to the
ratio of registered voters which voted for LREM in the second round of the French legislative election
(16.5%). Even in the second round of the presidential elections, which pitted Macron and National Front
leader Marine Le Pen, only 43.6% of registered voters gave their support to Macron as a result of a very
low turnout and a high incidence of blank or void ballot papers (see 2017 French elections – they think it’s
all over…it isn’t, 11 May 2017).
Macron’s honeymoon period is over and he has already had to deal with four ministerial resignations in
short successions. Amore flexible labour market and significant personnel cuts in a bloated bureaucracy
are at the top of Macron’s agenda. Parliamentary approval should not be a problem given the ruling
coalition’s large majority but history suggests that winning over an electorate resistant to changes which
threaten social benefits will be a far greater challenge. Mass protests and strikes, a common feature in
France, may well resurface over the summer.
UK elections have watered down nationalist rhetoric but Brexit still likely to happen
The outcome of the 8th
June election for the 650-seat House of Commons suggests that the needle has
moved towards a more conciliatory stance with regards to the modalities of any new UK-EU deal. The
election was clearly more than just a pseudo-vote on Brexit but UK relations with the EU, along with
taxation, public services and domestic security, were undoubtedly a key battleground.
Only 52% of the electorate (and 37.5% of registered voters) voted for Brexit in the 23rd
June referendum
and perhaps unsurprisingly the ruling Conservative Party, which has consistently pushed for the UK’s exit
from the EU, won only 44% of the national vote and lost 13 seats and its parliamentary majorities.
Moreover, the pro-EU Scottish National Party (SNP) which has continued to push for Scottish
independence won only 3% of the vote (versus 4.7% in 2015) and lost more than a third of its 54 seats, a
clear sign of Scottish nationalism in retreat.
But the most telling marker in my view that nationalism took a step back is that the United Kingdom Party
(UKIP), arguably the most ardent nationalist, pro-Brexit and anti-immigration party in the UK, saw its share
of the national vote collapse from 12.6% (in 2015) to a mere 1.8%. It failed to win a single seat and for all
intents and purposes UKIP has for now at least become a footnote in the UK’s political history.
This comes hot on the heels of a number of key elections in Italy, Netherlands and Austria where nationalist
and/or populist parties have under-performed (relative to expectations) and fallen well short of being the
12. 12
largest party or even of having major sway over domestic policy. Moreover, opinion polls suggest that
German Chancellor Merkel, who championed a policy of admitting millions of refugees, is on course to win
a record fourth term in general elections scheduled for 24th
September.