U.S. MarketBeats provide an overview of quarterly CRE activity and trends, a snapshot of current economic and capital market conditions as well as market-level statistics on key metrics.
The U.S. economy in 2016 was characterized by steady growth in the face of uncertainty. The year began with steep declines in global equity markets in response to concerns about a slowdown in China, the Europe replaced Asia as the focal point of global anxiety after the Brexit vote. In the fourth quarter, the U.S. unexpectedly elected Donald Trump as President. Despite uncertainty, the economy continued to add an average of 180,000 jobs per month during 2016.
Retail Lives
Economic fundamentals continue to strengthen in the
U.S., a trend that is expected to endure through
mid-2019. With continued wage growth acceleration
and consumer confidence near an 18-year high, the
retail marketplace has registered solid spending.
Inflation-adjusted consumer expenditures show a
steady 2.5-3% year-over-year (YOY) growth pattern
since the beginning of 2016. eCommerce sales
accounted for approximately 11.5% of retail sales
(excluding auto sales) in 2017. While we expect that
penetration rate to climb to 14.0% by 2019, physical
stores remain vital to retailer survival in this evolving
retail climate. Despite what the media would lead you
to believe, the overall retail industry is still posting
gains even while it faces secular challenges.
C&W Marketbeat - Canadian Industrial Report- Q2-2014 Guy Masse
This document provides a summary of industrial real estate market conditions across Canada in the second quarter of 2014. Key points include:
- The Alberta economy continued to outpace other regions, driven by growth in the oil and gas industry. This fueled record industrial real estate absorption in Calgary.
- Central Canadian markets struggled due to slow economic growth, though momentum was starting to improve in the second quarter.
- Strengthening US economic conditions are expected to increase demand for Canadian goods and services, benefiting industrial markets going forward.
Trump100 days- Implications for the Property Markets Guy Masse
PRESIDENT TRUMP'S ADMINISTRATION & ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PROPERTY MARKETS
Measuring the success of a new Administration by its first 100 days is a tradition, and President Trump reaches his first key milestone with campaign promises to overhaul Washington and jump-start the economy. This special report provides a perspective on:
How key economic indicators (inflation, job growth) and commercial real estate are performing so far
The status of key policy proposals, including trade and defense
What to watch for beyond the first 100 days
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Real Estate Industry | Q1 2017 | Segment Focus:...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Real Estate Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
Cushman & Wakefield Residential Market Commentary - May 2017Lee Layton
The document provides an economic overview and analysis of the UK residential property market. It finds that:
1) GDP growth is expected to slow down and bottom out in 2018, while inflation is already increasing. Interest rates are expected to remain on hold until 2019.
2) House prices nationally have remained flat in recent months, with transaction volumes subdued. New home construction continues to trend upward.
3) Prime central London property values and rents have fallen slightly in the past year, with transaction volumes volatile due to political events. Outer prime London markets have also experienced minor falls.
Real estate investment in emerging Asian markets grew 49.3% in the first half of 2013 compared to the same period in 2012. Investment was driven mainly by increased land deals in China's tier 2 and 3 cities to support continued urbanization. While sentiment has improved, volatility remains from tapering risks and deficits. State-linked companies account for more investment in emerging markets than institutional investors due to a lack of grade assets. Overall, real estate investment in emerging Asian markets continues to evolve with ongoing assessment of transparency, access and political risks against long-term economic potential.
The document discusses business optimism and the global economic outlook for 2017. It finds that business optimism rose globally in the fourth quarter of 2016 to its highest level in almost two years, as uncertainties from Brexit and the US election were resolved. While challenges remain, businesses intend to pursue growth strategies around the world through investment, hiring, and new markets. The outlook is particularly positive in the US and China, though some regions like Mexico and Russia saw declines in optimism.
- REITs had a lackluster start to 2017, returning -0.6% in January and underperforming the S&P 500 by nearly 250 basis points.
- Fourth quarter earnings have been mixed and 2017 earnings guidance has been conservative as companies acknowledge uncertain economic outlook.
- Commercial property fundamentals remain solid and should exhibit operating income growth exceeding inflation in 2017, leading to positive earnings growth for REITs over the next few years.
Retail Lives
Economic fundamentals continue to strengthen in the
U.S., a trend that is expected to endure through
mid-2019. With continued wage growth acceleration
and consumer confidence near an 18-year high, the
retail marketplace has registered solid spending.
Inflation-adjusted consumer expenditures show a
steady 2.5-3% year-over-year (YOY) growth pattern
since the beginning of 2016. eCommerce sales
accounted for approximately 11.5% of retail sales
(excluding auto sales) in 2017. While we expect that
penetration rate to climb to 14.0% by 2019, physical
stores remain vital to retailer survival in this evolving
retail climate. Despite what the media would lead you
to believe, the overall retail industry is still posting
gains even while it faces secular challenges.
C&W Marketbeat - Canadian Industrial Report- Q2-2014 Guy Masse
This document provides a summary of industrial real estate market conditions across Canada in the second quarter of 2014. Key points include:
- The Alberta economy continued to outpace other regions, driven by growth in the oil and gas industry. This fueled record industrial real estate absorption in Calgary.
- Central Canadian markets struggled due to slow economic growth, though momentum was starting to improve in the second quarter.
- Strengthening US economic conditions are expected to increase demand for Canadian goods and services, benefiting industrial markets going forward.
Trump100 days- Implications for the Property Markets Guy Masse
PRESIDENT TRUMP'S ADMINISTRATION & ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PROPERTY MARKETS
Measuring the success of a new Administration by its first 100 days is a tradition, and President Trump reaches his first key milestone with campaign promises to overhaul Washington and jump-start the economy. This special report provides a perspective on:
How key economic indicators (inflation, job growth) and commercial real estate are performing so far
The status of key policy proposals, including trade and defense
What to watch for beyond the first 100 days
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Real Estate Industry | Q1 2017 | Segment Focus:...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Real Estate Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
Cushman & Wakefield Residential Market Commentary - May 2017Lee Layton
The document provides an economic overview and analysis of the UK residential property market. It finds that:
1) GDP growth is expected to slow down and bottom out in 2018, while inflation is already increasing. Interest rates are expected to remain on hold until 2019.
2) House prices nationally have remained flat in recent months, with transaction volumes subdued. New home construction continues to trend upward.
3) Prime central London property values and rents have fallen slightly in the past year, with transaction volumes volatile due to political events. Outer prime London markets have also experienced minor falls.
Real estate investment in emerging Asian markets grew 49.3% in the first half of 2013 compared to the same period in 2012. Investment was driven mainly by increased land deals in China's tier 2 and 3 cities to support continued urbanization. While sentiment has improved, volatility remains from tapering risks and deficits. State-linked companies account for more investment in emerging markets than institutional investors due to a lack of grade assets. Overall, real estate investment in emerging Asian markets continues to evolve with ongoing assessment of transparency, access and political risks against long-term economic potential.
The document discusses business optimism and the global economic outlook for 2017. It finds that business optimism rose globally in the fourth quarter of 2016 to its highest level in almost two years, as uncertainties from Brexit and the US election were resolved. While challenges remain, businesses intend to pursue growth strategies around the world through investment, hiring, and new markets. The outlook is particularly positive in the US and China, though some regions like Mexico and Russia saw declines in optimism.
- REITs had a lackluster start to 2017, returning -0.6% in January and underperforming the S&P 500 by nearly 250 basis points.
- Fourth quarter earnings have been mixed and 2017 earnings guidance has been conservative as companies acknowledge uncertain economic outlook.
- Commercial property fundamentals remain solid and should exhibit operating income growth exceeding inflation in 2017, leading to positive earnings growth for REITs over the next few years.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Real Estate Industry | Q1 2016 | Segment Focus:...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Real Estate Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
Paradox of acute uncertainty and strong consensus viewsOlivier Desbarres
There appears to be a quasi-universal belief that 2017 will be characterised by acute uncertainty, with the list of difficult-to-predict economic and political variables growing exponentially in recent months.
These include the paths which Donald Trump will tread in the US and Theresa May in the UK, the Fed’s reaction function, the future of the eurozone and EU with European elections looming, the perennial question of China’s exchange rate policy and outlook for oil prices.
And yet, there is already it would seem a set of strong consensus views about the direction which economic variables and financial markets will follow in 2017.
US reflationary policies are expected to rule, boosting already decent US economic growth, inflation and US equities, in turn forcing the Fed to adopt a far more hawkish stance than in 2015-2016 and pushing US yields and dollar higher.
At the same time, President-elect Trump’s penchant for protectionism, alongside a strong dollar and higher US yields, are seen as major headwinds for indebted emerging economies reliant on trade and by implication for emerging currencies, bonds and equities. These seemingly include the Mexican Peso and Chinese Renminbi.
Moreover, the consensus forecast is that at the very least EUR/USD will fall below parity, having got close in December.
The perception of acute uncertainty is not totally incompatible with seemingly well-anchored forecasts but they do make uncomfortable bed-fellows.
Some of the uncertainties which have gained prominence can be put to rest, for now at least. At the same time, some of the sure-fire trades currently advocated may struggle to stand the test of time, in my view.
Marine Le Pen is very unlikely to become the next French President, the Italian banking sector will not be allowed to implode and the euro may end the year on a strong note.
Emerging market currencies have showed greater poise in the past few weeks, with a number of central banks showing both the appetite and the room to support their currencies. This should be borne in mind.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell to a new low in May amid rising concerns about household finances, spending on big ticket items, and long-term business conditions. Consumer confidence declined across all income groups, though higher income households were less affected. Consumers expressed growing worries about current economic conditions and the future path of inflation, interest rates, and employment prospects. Spending indicators such as durable buying conditions and car purchases also fell as consumers grew more cautious.
The IMF recently reported that Russia has entered a recession and warned that economic growth will further contract if Western sanctions are increased. The MNI Russia Business Indicator fell sharply in May due to the impact of sanctions over Russia's actions in Crimea. Industrial production growth increased in April but overall economic growth remains weak, forecast at just 0.5% for 2014 compared to original predictions of 2.5% growth. Russia signed a $400 billion gas deal with China aimed at boosting infrastructure investment.
Dejo esto por aquí.
Principales tendencias en el mundo de los negocios y macro económicas para este 2018, así como de las principales categorías de compra.
Las principales tecnologías de vanguardia que afectarán el proceso de compras y su importancia de dicha función en la empresa.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q1 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic and market factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the Fed's recent activity and its intentions to raise benchmark interest rates three times in 2017. The report also focuses on how the new U.S. administration will impact domestic and global economies.
While “Keep your eyes on the stars and your feet on the ground” sounds like a social media cliché, it was President Theodore Roosevelt who first uttered the phrase. It was good advice at the turn of the 20th century, and it still holds true today. As with catchphrases, economic cycles ebb and flow with time. Our 3rd Quarter Economic Update takes an interesting look at domestic and global economic health, and world markets.
- Confidence in Trump's ability to enact his reform agenda is declining after the failure to pass healthcare reform
- Economic data in the US is weaker than expectations based on surveys, and growth may be subdued
- European assets are beginning to recover and outperform the US, reflecting an improving economic picture and overly pessimistic sentiment
- Inflation is peaking and bonds are becoming more attractive, leading the author to shift focus to better-positioned European markets
French politics, UK macro data and possible GBP/EUR downsideOlivier Desbarres
• The GBP/EUR cross is at year-highs but continues to struggle to breach the 1.20 mark, as it did on a number of occasions in the second half of 2016.
• Sterling has been buoyed by British Prime Minister Theresa May’s call for early general elections on 8th June while the euro remains in reasonably narrow trading ranges as we head into Sunday’s French presidential election first round.
• With four presidential candidates polling between 18.5% and 23.5%, it is still a close call.
• But I am sticking to my core scenario that independent centre-left candidate Emmanuel Macron will fill one of the top two spots to make it to the 7th May run-off, which I my view would be welcomed by French financial markets and the euro even if markets remain jittery over the next fortnight.
• At the same time, the ever-changing political scene in the UK can do little near-term to avert the headwinds to GDP growth stemming from falling real wages and retail sales.
• With this in mind, I see the risk to GBP/EUR biased to the downside in coming weeks, particularly if both Macron and Republican candidate François Fillon earn their place in the second round.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Real Estate Industry | Q3 2016 | Segment Focus:...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Real Estate Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
2015 2Q North American Office Market ReportCoy Davidson
The U.S. office market saw improvements in Q2 2015, with vacancy rates declining and absorption improving. However, the Canadian office market weakened, with rising vacancy rates driven by falling oil prices. Overall North American vacancy fell slightly to 12.7%, with U.S. vacancy down to 13.0% and Canadian vacancy up to 9.1%. Absorption was positive in the U.S. at 23.1 million square feet but negative in Canada at -0.5 million square feet. The outlook remains positive for the U.S. office market but negative for Canada due to economic challenges from low oil prices.
The document discusses signs that the true unemployment rate in the US is higher than reported, around 6-7% rather than the quoted 4.3%. It notes weakness in the labor market that will likely lead to falling wages and payrolls over the next 6-8 months. It also discusses a stressed US consumer with rising debt delinquencies, indicating weaker discretionary spending and retail sales going forward. Several trades are recommended based on this outlook, including selling stocks, buying bonds, and selling retail and base metals ETFs.
- The French presidential election removed a major risk from investors' minds, with the centrist pro-European president expected to act pragmatically.
- Markets have shown resilience recently due to receding global risks and a strong US earnings season. However, valuations remain high based on historical standards.
- Sentiment in Europe has improved, driving up stock prices and flows into European equities and bonds, though the author remains cautious on European bonds given upcoming ECB policy changes.
Paine Wetzel/TCN 2016 Q4 State of the Market: Central EditionMarc Hale
TCN Worldwide is a consortium of 1,500+ commercial real estate professionals providing services in over 200 markets worldwide. It manages approximately $38.8 billion in transactions and 80 million square feet of space annually. The US economy grew at a moderate 2.3-2.4% in 2017-2018 according to forecasts, with some fiscal stimulus in the short run under the new administration. Commercial real estate transaction volumes declined in the central US region in 2016, with office down 20.6%, industrial down 45.4%, and retail down 9.7% compared to the previous year.
- The Houston business cycle index showed modest economic contraction in April, driven by job losses. Total nonfarm employment declined annually by 1% from January to April, with losses in goods-producing industries like construction, manufacturing, and mining.
- While the private service sector continues expanding, growth rates have fallen since last summer as the oil bust impacts other industries. Leading indicators are mixed but suggest continued modest economic weakness in the near term.
- The unemployment rate in Houston rose to 5.2% in April, its highest since 2014, though the labor force continues growing. Overall, the regional economy remains challenged by the ongoing effects of low oil prices.
The document summarizes the economic landscape in Russia in April 2014. It notes that Russian GDP contracted in Q1 2014 and full-year growth forecasts have been revised down to just 0.5% due to sanctions and turmoil in Ukraine. Industrial production growth slowed in March while car sales were stable. Inflation remains high and the central bank does not plan to ease monetary policy. The economic outlook is uncertain as tensions in Ukraine continue.
- The US office market continued to feel the impact of the COVID-19 recession in Q4 2020, with vacancy rates rising to 15.5% as absorption fell to -43 million square feet. Sublease space availability nearly doubled year-over-year to over 111 million square feet.
- Job losses led to falling demand for office space, with 1.2 million fewer office jobs in Q4 than before the pandemic. A record number of markets had negative absorption, bringing total space given back over three quarters to 103 million square feet.
- With vaccines now being distributed but COVID cases still rising, the outlook calls for further vacancy increases and rent declines in 2021, though recovery is expected to accelerate in the second
The U.S. industrial market experienced strong net absorption in Q3 2018, with overall vacancy remaining at historic lows despite increased construction. Demand was broad-based across regions and product types, with the South and West leading in absorption. Rents continued rising above 5% annually in over half of markets as demand outstripped supply in a tight market. The development pipeline expanded but speculative construction remains concentrated in top markets, indicating limited overbuilding risk through 2019.
U.S. MarketBeats provide an overview of quarterly CRE activity and trends, a snapshot of current economic and capital market conditions as well as market-level statistics on key metrics.
The U.S. economy in 2016 was characterized by steady growth in the face of uncertainty. The year began with steep declines in global equity markets in response to concerns about a slowdown in China, the Europe replaced Asia as the focal point of global anxiety after the Brexit vote. In the fourth quarter, the U.S. unexpectedly elected Donald Trump as President. Despite uncertainty, the economy continued to add an average of 180,000 jobs per month during 2016.
-U.S. Office Market Was Driven by the Tech
Sector in the Fourth Quarter of 2018
-Absorption exceeds construction completions, vacancy
declines and the pipeline grows
-Tech markets tighten
-Rents rise, but the pace slows:
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Real Estate Industry | Q1 2016 | Segment Focus:...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Real Estate Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
Paradox of acute uncertainty and strong consensus viewsOlivier Desbarres
There appears to be a quasi-universal belief that 2017 will be characterised by acute uncertainty, with the list of difficult-to-predict economic and political variables growing exponentially in recent months.
These include the paths which Donald Trump will tread in the US and Theresa May in the UK, the Fed’s reaction function, the future of the eurozone and EU with European elections looming, the perennial question of China’s exchange rate policy and outlook for oil prices.
And yet, there is already it would seem a set of strong consensus views about the direction which economic variables and financial markets will follow in 2017.
US reflationary policies are expected to rule, boosting already decent US economic growth, inflation and US equities, in turn forcing the Fed to adopt a far more hawkish stance than in 2015-2016 and pushing US yields and dollar higher.
At the same time, President-elect Trump’s penchant for protectionism, alongside a strong dollar and higher US yields, are seen as major headwinds for indebted emerging economies reliant on trade and by implication for emerging currencies, bonds and equities. These seemingly include the Mexican Peso and Chinese Renminbi.
Moreover, the consensus forecast is that at the very least EUR/USD will fall below parity, having got close in December.
The perception of acute uncertainty is not totally incompatible with seemingly well-anchored forecasts but they do make uncomfortable bed-fellows.
Some of the uncertainties which have gained prominence can be put to rest, for now at least. At the same time, some of the sure-fire trades currently advocated may struggle to stand the test of time, in my view.
Marine Le Pen is very unlikely to become the next French President, the Italian banking sector will not be allowed to implode and the euro may end the year on a strong note.
Emerging market currencies have showed greater poise in the past few weeks, with a number of central banks showing both the appetite and the room to support their currencies. This should be borne in mind.
The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator fell to a new low in May amid rising concerns about household finances, spending on big ticket items, and long-term business conditions. Consumer confidence declined across all income groups, though higher income households were less affected. Consumers expressed growing worries about current economic conditions and the future path of inflation, interest rates, and employment prospects. Spending indicators such as durable buying conditions and car purchases also fell as consumers grew more cautious.
The IMF recently reported that Russia has entered a recession and warned that economic growth will further contract if Western sanctions are increased. The MNI Russia Business Indicator fell sharply in May due to the impact of sanctions over Russia's actions in Crimea. Industrial production growth increased in April but overall economic growth remains weak, forecast at just 0.5% for 2014 compared to original predictions of 2.5% growth. Russia signed a $400 billion gas deal with China aimed at boosting infrastructure investment.
Dejo esto por aquí.
Principales tendencias en el mundo de los negocios y macro económicas para este 2018, así como de las principales categorías de compra.
Las principales tecnologías de vanguardia que afectarán el proceso de compras y su importancia de dicha función en la empresa.
The SVB Asset Management Economic Report, Q1 2017, is a review of and outlook on economic and market factors that impact global markets and business health.
In this edition, the team discusses the Fed's recent activity and its intentions to raise benchmark interest rates three times in 2017. The report also focuses on how the new U.S. administration will impact domestic and global economies.
While “Keep your eyes on the stars and your feet on the ground” sounds like a social media cliché, it was President Theodore Roosevelt who first uttered the phrase. It was good advice at the turn of the 20th century, and it still holds true today. As with catchphrases, economic cycles ebb and flow with time. Our 3rd Quarter Economic Update takes an interesting look at domestic and global economic health, and world markets.
- Confidence in Trump's ability to enact his reform agenda is declining after the failure to pass healthcare reform
- Economic data in the US is weaker than expectations based on surveys, and growth may be subdued
- European assets are beginning to recover and outperform the US, reflecting an improving economic picture and overly pessimistic sentiment
- Inflation is peaking and bonds are becoming more attractive, leading the author to shift focus to better-positioned European markets
French politics, UK macro data and possible GBP/EUR downsideOlivier Desbarres
• The GBP/EUR cross is at year-highs but continues to struggle to breach the 1.20 mark, as it did on a number of occasions in the second half of 2016.
• Sterling has been buoyed by British Prime Minister Theresa May’s call for early general elections on 8th June while the euro remains in reasonably narrow trading ranges as we head into Sunday’s French presidential election first round.
• With four presidential candidates polling between 18.5% and 23.5%, it is still a close call.
• But I am sticking to my core scenario that independent centre-left candidate Emmanuel Macron will fill one of the top two spots to make it to the 7th May run-off, which I my view would be welcomed by French financial markets and the euro even if markets remain jittery over the next fortnight.
• At the same time, the ever-changing political scene in the UK can do little near-term to avert the headwinds to GDP growth stemming from falling real wages and retail sales.
• With this in mind, I see the risk to GBP/EUR biased to the downside in coming weeks, particularly if both Macron and Republican candidate François Fillon earn their place in the second round.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Real Estate Industry | Q3 2016 | Segment Focus:...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Real Estate Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
2015 2Q North American Office Market ReportCoy Davidson
The U.S. office market saw improvements in Q2 2015, with vacancy rates declining and absorption improving. However, the Canadian office market weakened, with rising vacancy rates driven by falling oil prices. Overall North American vacancy fell slightly to 12.7%, with U.S. vacancy down to 13.0% and Canadian vacancy up to 9.1%. Absorption was positive in the U.S. at 23.1 million square feet but negative in Canada at -0.5 million square feet. The outlook remains positive for the U.S. office market but negative for Canada due to economic challenges from low oil prices.
The document discusses signs that the true unemployment rate in the US is higher than reported, around 6-7% rather than the quoted 4.3%. It notes weakness in the labor market that will likely lead to falling wages and payrolls over the next 6-8 months. It also discusses a stressed US consumer with rising debt delinquencies, indicating weaker discretionary spending and retail sales going forward. Several trades are recommended based on this outlook, including selling stocks, buying bonds, and selling retail and base metals ETFs.
- The French presidential election removed a major risk from investors' minds, with the centrist pro-European president expected to act pragmatically.
- Markets have shown resilience recently due to receding global risks and a strong US earnings season. However, valuations remain high based on historical standards.
- Sentiment in Europe has improved, driving up stock prices and flows into European equities and bonds, though the author remains cautious on European bonds given upcoming ECB policy changes.
Paine Wetzel/TCN 2016 Q4 State of the Market: Central EditionMarc Hale
TCN Worldwide is a consortium of 1,500+ commercial real estate professionals providing services in over 200 markets worldwide. It manages approximately $38.8 billion in transactions and 80 million square feet of space annually. The US economy grew at a moderate 2.3-2.4% in 2017-2018 according to forecasts, with some fiscal stimulus in the short run under the new administration. Commercial real estate transaction volumes declined in the central US region in 2016, with office down 20.6%, industrial down 45.4%, and retail down 9.7% compared to the previous year.
- The Houston business cycle index showed modest economic contraction in April, driven by job losses. Total nonfarm employment declined annually by 1% from January to April, with losses in goods-producing industries like construction, manufacturing, and mining.
- While the private service sector continues expanding, growth rates have fallen since last summer as the oil bust impacts other industries. Leading indicators are mixed but suggest continued modest economic weakness in the near term.
- The unemployment rate in Houston rose to 5.2% in April, its highest since 2014, though the labor force continues growing. Overall, the regional economy remains challenged by the ongoing effects of low oil prices.
The document summarizes the economic landscape in Russia in April 2014. It notes that Russian GDP contracted in Q1 2014 and full-year growth forecasts have been revised down to just 0.5% due to sanctions and turmoil in Ukraine. Industrial production growth slowed in March while car sales were stable. Inflation remains high and the central bank does not plan to ease monetary policy. The economic outlook is uncertain as tensions in Ukraine continue.
- The US office market continued to feel the impact of the COVID-19 recession in Q4 2020, with vacancy rates rising to 15.5% as absorption fell to -43 million square feet. Sublease space availability nearly doubled year-over-year to over 111 million square feet.
- Job losses led to falling demand for office space, with 1.2 million fewer office jobs in Q4 than before the pandemic. A record number of markets had negative absorption, bringing total space given back over three quarters to 103 million square feet.
- With vaccines now being distributed but COVID cases still rising, the outlook calls for further vacancy increases and rent declines in 2021, though recovery is expected to accelerate in the second
The U.S. industrial market experienced strong net absorption in Q3 2018, with overall vacancy remaining at historic lows despite increased construction. Demand was broad-based across regions and product types, with the South and West leading in absorption. Rents continued rising above 5% annually in over half of markets as demand outstripped supply in a tight market. The development pipeline expanded but speculative construction remains concentrated in top markets, indicating limited overbuilding risk through 2019.
U.S. MarketBeats provide an overview of quarterly CRE activity and trends, a snapshot of current economic and capital market conditions as well as market-level statistics on key metrics.
The U.S. economy in 2016 was characterized by steady growth in the face of uncertainty. The year began with steep declines in global equity markets in response to concerns about a slowdown in China, the Europe replaced Asia as the focal point of global anxiety after the Brexit vote. In the fourth quarter, the U.S. unexpectedly elected Donald Trump as President. Despite uncertainty, the economy continued to add an average of 180,000 jobs per month during 2016.
-U.S. Office Market Was Driven by the Tech
Sector in the Fourth Quarter of 2018
-Absorption exceeds construction completions, vacancy
declines and the pipeline grows
-Tech markets tighten
-Rents rise, but the pace slows:
U.S. MarketBeats provide an overview of quarterly CRE activity and trends, a snapshot of current economic and capital market conditions as well as market-level statistics on key metrics.
The U.S. economy in 2016 was characterized by steady growth in the face of uncertainty. The year began with steep declines in global equity markets in response to concerns about a slowdown in China, the Europe replaced Asia as the focal point of global anxiety after the Brexit vote. In the fourth quarter, the U.S. unexpectedly elected Donald Trump as President. Despite uncertainty, the economy continued to add an average of 180,000 jobs per month during 2016.
The document provides an overview of the US industrial real estate market in Q1 2016. Some key points:
- Net absorption was 57.9 million square feet, an increase over Q1 2015. Vacancy fell to 6.1%, its lowest level in 30 years.
- 22 markets saw over 1 million square feet of positive net absorption. Strong employment and consumer spending are driving demand.
- Online retail sales continue to grow much faster than overall retail and support additional industrial space needs. Speculative construction is increasing but remains controlled.
- Rents increased 3.8% year-over-year nationally, with over 20% of markets seeing double-digit rent growth. Fundamentals remain strong across the industrial
Q1 - 2015 North American Industrial HighlightsCoy Davidson
The North American industrial vacancy rate declined 15 basis points to 6.7% in Q1 2015. Net absorption was strong at 63.1 million square feet, while 52.0 million square feet of new space was added. Healthy demand and a need for modern space has led to an upswing in construction activity in both the US and Canada. Tightening market conditions have pushed up industrial rents, with average US warehouse rents rising 2.2% to $5.16 per square foot.
The retail market report summarizes 2015 trends in the Phoenix metro area. It notes that 65,700 jobs were added in 2015, home starts increased 70% year-over-year, and these economic gains are boosting consumer confidence. Retail vacancy rates declined to 9.3% while net absorption was 1.77 million square feet. Average rental rates increased to $14/sqft, up from $13.62/sqft in 2014. The report concludes that with continued job and housing growth, the retail sector is poised for growth in 2016.
North American Commercial Real Estate ReportChris Fyvie
We are pleased to share with you the our latest North American Research Report -covering approximately 70 metro areas - demonstrating that the office market in the United States and Canada will continue a steady growth, but will lack in the force and pace of prior cycles. However, positive market trends exist, including strong absorption and declining vacancy rates in all the major U.S. CBDs. Additionally, construction is increasing, but remains below historic highs.
2014 Q4 NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL HIGHLIGHTSCoy Davidson
The North American industrial market continued strengthening in Q4 2014:
- Vacancy rates decreased to 6.8%, with the U.S. rate falling to 7.2% and the Canadian rate remaining flat at 4.0%.
- Net absorption was robust at 70.7 million square feet, with U.S. absorption at 67 million square feet.
- Construction accelerated, totaling 178.2 million square feet, up from 155.9 million square feet in Q3 2014. However, absorption still exceeded new supply.
- Strong economic and e-commerce growth have expanded demand in distribution and intermodal markets beyond the recovery phase.
The National Multifamily Index ranks major U.S. markets based on projected vacancy rates, rent growth, and employment gains. San Francisco and San Jose rank at the top due to strong job growth, low vacancy, and high rents. Markets in the Pacific Northwest and Northeast also rank highly. Atlanta and Riverside-San Bernardino moved into the top 20 due to improving economies and property performance. Midwest markets rank in the lower third despite favorable demand drivers. Supply growth will challenge some markets like Houston and Tampa.
The document summarizes North American office market indicators for Q3 2014. Vacancy rates declined slightly in both the US and Canada while absorption increased. Job growth drove office demand in both countries, leading to a broadening economic recovery. Office-using employment increased more than total employment, with growth seen across more industry sectors and geographic regions. Transaction volume was also up, reflecting continued strong investor demand.
The document provides an overview and analysis of Q3 2014 office market conditions in North America. Some key points:
- Vacancy rates declined slightly in both the US and Canada, while net absorption and rental rates increased.
- Job and office-using employment growth has broadened beyond just tech and energy markets, driving continued recovery. Demand is widespread across regions.
- The recovery is supported by projections of ongoing economic and employment expansion in both the US and Canada through 2015.
JLL Research - US_Investment_Outlook_-_Q4_2016Matt Berres
The document provides an overview and analysis of investment trends in the US commercial real estate market in Q4 2016. Key points include:
- Total US investment sales reached $432 billion in 2016, down 9.7% from 2015. Multifamily was the strongest sector with a 4.3% increase while retail and hotels declined the most.
- Secondary markets hit a record $113 billion in sales, driven by multifamily and retail investment. Dallas, Atlanta, Phoenix and Denver were top performing secondary markets.
- Interest rates rose significantly in Q4 2016 and are expected to continue climbing in 2017, putting pressure on real estate pricing. However, spreads remain healthy compared to prior peaks.
- Fund
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Real Estate Industry | Q4 2016 | Segment Focus:...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Real Estate Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
The document summarizes North American office market indicators for Q3 2014. Some key points:
- Vacancy rates decreased slightly in both the US and Canada while net absorption increased.
- Job and office-using employment growth has driven demand, with broad-based growth across sectors and regions.
- Construction activity remains concentrated in major markets, accounting for over 60% of space under construction.
- Economic and office market recoveries are strengthening and broadening across more markets.
Domestic demand continues to bolster Asia Pacific growth amid heightened global uncertainty. While overall regional office leasing activity slowed in Q3 2016, performance was uneven across markets with some cities like Australia seeing strong growth. Commercial real estate investment remains healthy across Asia Pacific supported by low interest rates and strong liquidity. Occupier and investment demand are expected to sustain momentum in 2017.
The document provides an overview of the Economist Intelligence Unit, an organization that provides analysis on business developments, economic trends, and other topics to help companies establish operations across borders. The EIU delivers its information through digital and print publications, research reports, and seminars. The EIU has offices in London, New York, Hong Kong, Geneva, and provides forecasting and analysis services to its clients.
Similar to C&W MARKETBEAT- U.S OFFICE Q4 2016 – #CRE #REALESTATE (20)
North America Industrial Construction Cost Guide 2023Guy Masse
The industrial construction sector in North America has seen historically high levels of activity and costs in recent years due to robust demand. While supply chain issues and inflation have driven up costs, some commodities prices are starting to moderate. However, construction contractors still largely expect costs to continue increasing in the near term due to labor constraints, high material and transportation costs, and a large backlog of projects. With record levels of construction underway and vacancy rates near all-time lows, the industrial sector faces ongoing challenges in completing projects on time and on budget.
March 2022 Labour Market Survey Highlights
• Employment rose by 73,000 in March, driven by an increase in full-time work.
• Employment rose in both the services-producing and the goods-producing sectors.
• Total hours worked rose 1.3% in March.
• The unemployment rate fell 20 basis points to 5.3% in March, the lowest rate on record since comparable data became available in 1976.
• The proportion of workers who report that they usually work exclusively from home continued to decline, down 180 basis points to 20.7%.
Cushman & Wakefield Toronto Americas Marketbeat Office Q1 2019 Guy Masse
Outlook
Given low availability, robust demand, and little relief from new
supply, the office story in Downtown Toronto is expected to remain
one of historically tight conditions and rising rental rates. On the
suburban front, availability is expected to trend upward in GTA
West as over 800,000 square feet (sf) hits the market in the second
half of 2019. GTA East will continue to see a moderate performance
with less than 200,000 sf of space tracked to become available this
year.
This document summarizes real estate market conditions in Montreal, Quebec in the first quarter of 2019. It finds that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.9% and vacancy rates declined to 10.9% as positive absorption of 795,000 square feet continued across major markets. Rental rates increased slightly by 2% annually as large blocks of available space disappeared and demand increased in a tightening market. The outlook is for the positive momentum to continue through 2019, with further tightening of vacancy rates and small increases in average rental rates.
- Office availability rates decreased across central and suburban markets over the past year and quarter, with Vancouver CBD availability reaching an all-time low of 1.4%.
- Suburban markets saw strong absorption of nearly 800,000 square feet in the first quarter, driven by growth in Montreal, Vancouver, and Waterloo.
- Overall new supply additions were modest at 2.5 million square feet for the quarter, with most new space added to suburban markets.
- Total absorption of office space was over 1.2 million square feet for the quarter, led by continued momentum in suburban market growth.
Cushman & Wakefield's Canadian Office Statistical Summary Q4 2018Guy Masse
Q4 2018
Canadian Office Statistical Summary
Driven by buoyant demand from technology companies, extremely tight CBD markets in both Vancouver and Toronto got even tighter over the final quarter of the year, helping drive the National CBD vacancy rate to 8.7% - its lowest point since Q3 2015!
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
• Canadian CBD Class A markets saw absorption of 3.6 msf in 2018, with a fourth quarter contribution of 1.5 msf. This is the strongest premium space growth since 2011.
• The arrival and partial occupancy of Stantec Tower helped drive Q4 2018 absorption in Edmonton’s downtown market to above 800,000 sf, with a final year-end 2018 tally of 1.2 msf.
• Although Calgary continues to see modest momentum in its CBD market, Suburban markets had a strong year with absorption reaching 337,000 sf. This drove vacancy to 16.9% from 19.4% one-year-ago.
• Vacancy in Downtown Toronto reached an incredibly tight 1.9% in Q4, a vacancy rate not seen in over 35 years. Conditions are expected to remain extremely tight until late 2020 when the first in a 10.7 msf wave of new developments will begin to hit the downtown market.
• Downtown Vancouver, another hot market driven by technology growth, saw its vacancy decline to 2.3% in Q4; its lowest point since Q2 2008. Like Toronto, little relief for tenants is not anticipated until the next wave of downtown new supply begins to arrive in late 2020.
C&W REAL ESTATE MARKET REPORTS : WORKPLACE 2025 #CREGuy Masse
Visualizing the workplace in 2025 starts with the realization that planning for that reality starts today. People today can work from anywhere, at any time so offices now must compete with other workplace options. When workers do go into the office they want a work environment to complement their work-life experience – and in a place where they feel valued, connected and supported. It’s all about people – and it’s closer than you think.
Cushman & Wakefield Q12018 Canadian Office Statistical SummaryGuy Masse
Q1 2018 Canadian Office Statistical Summary
Turning Up the Heat
The summer arrived about nine years ago for many Canadian office markets, marking one of the longest growth cycles on record. With CBD availability rates plunging as low as 2.5% in Toronto and 4.3% in Vancouver, the heat has intensified. Meanwhile, oil-producing markets are seeing the first signs of recovery.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS:
• After enduring a grinding bust cycle, top oil-producing markets -- Calgary, Edmonton, and St. John’s -- reached high-water CBD availability marks of 23.7%, 14.1%, and 26.7%, respectively. CBD Edmonton will see the Stantec Tower arrive in Q3 2018, pushing availability towards 20%.
• With oil prices gaining some buoyancy in recent months and CBD Calgary expected to hit peak availability by early 2019, expectations are growing that absorption will begin shifting to the positive side over the next few quarters.
• Remarkably, CBD Toronto saw the strongest absorption of the quarter, reaching close to 300,000 square feet (sf). Both Toronto and Vancouver downtown markets will remain notoriously tight until at least 2021.
• Of the major markets, Vancouver did it again, posting the strongest suburban expansionary momentum in the country, totaling about 300,000 sf. The runner up, surprisingly, was Calgary, where suburban absorption hit 115,000 sf over the quarter. Green shoots!
U.S. MarketBeats provide an overview of quarterly CRE activity and trends, a snapshot of current economic and capital market conditions as well as market-level statistics on key metrics.
The U.S. economy in 2016 was characterized by steady growth in the face of uncertainty. The year began with steep declines in global equity markets in response to concerns about a slowdown in China, the Europe replaced Asia as the focal point of global anxiety after the Brexit vote. In the fourth quarter, the U.S. unexpectedly elected Donald Trump as President. Despite uncertainty, the economy continued to add an average of 180,000 jobs per month during 2016.
Welcome to the Cushman & Wakefield Atlas Outlook 2016,
an update on the International Investment Atlas that reviews
how the market performed last year and, more particularly,
what we should anticipate for the year ahead.
We have examined a series of questions when approaching this publication: what are the key forces
driving and transforming the global market? Who will be the winners in this volatile environment?
How should a subsequent investment strategy be most advantageously aligned?
Of course, in a highly uncertain but fast changing world, the need for insightful research is
increased – but the task of delivering a robust and well-considered view is made more difficult. By
bringing together expert opinion from across our capital markets, occupier and research teams
around the world, we have sought to answer this challenge and hope you agree we have delivered a
concise but thoughtful review of the state of the market and the outlook for the year ahead.
Naturally, any research can only be enhanced by further industry insight. To help us continuously
improve our Atlas Outlook, we would value your thoughts, comments or suggestions. Feel free to
share these via our Cushman & Wakefield social media
channels or by contacting our capital markets or research teams directly.
- The document provides an overview of global real estate investment trends in 2015 and an outlook for 2016.
- Global property investment volumes fell slightly for the first time in 6 years in 2015, down 2.4% to $1.29 trillion, driven by a pullback in Asia, notably for development land. Excluding land, volumes rose 8.2%.
- Going forward, the focus will be on core assets that provide value to occupants. Investors will seek platforms for local intelligence and pursue opportunities such as modern flexible office, retail, and logistics space in gateway cities.
WINNING IN GROWTH CITIES /ACushman & Wakefield Capital Markets Research Publi...Guy Masse
This report has been prepared by the Research and
Capital Markets teams at Cushman & Wakefield to
identify the winning cities in today’s international real
estate investment market. The executive summary
looks at the largest and fastest growing cities in
investment terms and the differences in pricing,
as well as demand and activity between sectors.
The document provides an overview and forecasts for office markets globally from 2014-2015. Key points include:
- Efficiency and quality workspace are driving trends as companies seek to reduce costs and increase productivity. Vacancy rates may rise short-term as new supply comes online.
- Rents are expected to rise modestly in most major markets. Demand will be strong in tech and energy sectors, supporting certain US and Asian markets, while Europe shows signs of stabilization.
- Workplace transformation is a growing priority to attract talent and encourage innovation, with factors varying by industry and region. Cost savings remain a key motivation but culture and collaboration are increasingly important.
2014 business briefing_humancapital_finalGuy Masse
This document discusses how companies are facing challenges in finding and retaining top talent. Real estate can help by providing workspaces that foster collaboration and innovation. Locations that appeal to workers are important as employees demand certain elements in their work experience. Some markets like Austin and Seattle provide high innovation potential at below average costs, making them good options for companies seeking talent. Demographic shifts are also impacting the labor supply, intensifying the competition for workers.
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One of the things that sets Avrupa Konutlari Esentepe apart from other developments is our focus on creating a community that is both comfortable and convenient. Our homes are surrounded by lush green spaces, perfect for enjoying a peaceful stroll or having a picnic with friends and family. Additionally, our complex includes a variety of social and recreational amenities, such as swimming pools, sports fields, and playgrounds, making it easy for residents to stay active and socialize with their neighbors.
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1. cushmanwakefield.com | 1
U.S. Office
Q4 2016
MARKETBEAT
Economy
A key characteristic of the U.S. economy in 2016 was steady
growth in the face of uncertainty. The year began with steep
declines in global equity markets in response to concerns
about a growth slowdown in China. As those worries faded, the
Brexit vote was held in the U.K. and Europe replaced Asia as
the focal point of global anxiety. Then, in the fourth quarter, the
U.S. elections came to the fore with yet another unexpected
outcome as Donald Trump was elected 45th President of the
United States. In spite of all these developments, the U.S.
economy continued to add an average of 180,000 jobs per
month during 2016, resulting in occupancy gains recorded in
79% of office markets tracked across the country.
Although the U.S. economy is still creating a healthy number of
jobs, it is worth noting that the rate of business hiring is
slowing. In the fourth quarter of 2016, total U.S. employment
increased an average 165,000 jobs per month, a notable
deceleration from the 212,000 jobs per month added in the
third quarter of last year. The slowdown was also evident in key
office-using sectors: financial services, professional and
business services and information. Office-using employment
expanded by an average 44,000 jobs per month in the fourth
quarter, well below the 78,000 per month average of the third
quarter.
As the year ended, there was growing optimism on the part of
consumers and businesses that the policy measures proposed
by the Trump Administration would boost economic growth in
2017. Equity markets soared to record highs following the
election and various measures of business and consumer
sentiment increased markedly. One notable gain was the
Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index which, in
December, climbed to its highest level since 2001. Businesses
appeared more confident as well; small business confidence
surged to its highest level in over a decade. If this confidence
carries over into 2017 it could lead to stronger economic
growth, more jobs and more demand for office space. In
addition, the construction pipeline is ramping up—sharply in
many markets—which will create increased opportunities for
occupiers.
Market Overview
Somewhat slower employment growth was reflected in the
performance of office markets in the fourth quarter of 2016, as
absorption of office space declined to 6.9 million square feet
(MSF), the smallest amount of space absorbed since the
second quarter of 2012. Absorption totaled 52.6 MSF for all of
2016, down approximately 35% from the 81.0 MSF absorbed in
2015, but still the third highest full-year absorption level since
the current expansion began in 2010. For the fourth quarter, 58
of the 87 markets tracked by Cushman & Wakefield reported
positive absorption, the smallest number of positive markets
since the third quarter of 2013.
There also was greater diversification in those markets where
occupancy growth occurred in 2016. Early in this expansion the
strongest markets were technology-driven or energy-driven.
But this “Tech and Texas” pattern has shifted as oil prices have
fallen and tech growth has slowed. In 2016 the top markets
U.S. OFFICE
Overall Vacancy
Net Absorption/Rent
4-QTR TRAILING AVERAGE
Market Indicators (Overall)
Q4 15 Q4 16 12-Month
Forecast
Vacancy Rate 13.5% 13.2%
Net Absorption 20.5M 6.9M
Under Construction 94.5M 100.2M
Weighted Asking Rent (FS) $28.11 $29.71
Employment Indicators
Q4 15 Q4 16 12-Month
Forecast
Total Nonfarm Employment 142.8M 144.6M
Office-using Employment 30.8M 31.5M
Unemployment 5.0% 4.7%
$24.00
$26.00
$28.00
$30.00
0
7
14
21
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Net Absorption, MSF Asking Rent, $ PSF
12%
14%
16%
18%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Historical Average = 15.0%
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
Source: BLS
2. cushmanwakefield.com | 2
U.S. Office
Q4 2016
MARKETBEAT
Asking Rent by Market
HIGHEST PRICED U.S. MARKETS
Vacancy by Market
SELECT MARKETS IN THE U.S.
New Supply
COMPLETIONS REMAIN ABOVE LONG-TERM AVERAGE
Outlook
• While we do not expect the overall U.S. vacancy
rate to rise rapidly, with an estimated 91 MSF
of new office space expected to be delivered
nationally in 2017 and 2018, it is unlikely that
demand will be able to keep pace.
• Individual markets will be driven by their own
supply-and-demand dynamics, but it is looking
more likely that national trends will show rental
growth rates peaked in 2016 and will begin
decelerating in 2017.
$78.39
$70.86
$69.77
$59.30
$57.82
$52.96
$42.30
$40.50
$40.20
$35.84
$35.12
$34.70
$34.38
$34.30
$34.25
$34.19
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
NYC-Midtown
NYC–MidtownSouth
SanFrancisco
NYC-Downtown
SanMateoCounty
Washington,D.C.
NYC-Brooklyn
LosAngelesCBD
SantaClara
Miami
LosAngelesMetro
PalmBeach
Boston
Seattle
FairfieldCounty
Austin
$PSF
National Average = $29.71
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
MSF
Historic Average = 11.0 MSF
5.5%
6.7%
7.7%
7.8%
7.8%
8.0%
8.0%
8.2%
9.6%
9.7%
9.7%
9.9%
10.2%
10.2%
10.5%
10.9%
11.1%
11.2%
11.4%
11.4%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Nashville
NYC-MidtownSouth
SanMateoCounty
Raleigh/Durham
Seattle
Charlotte
SanFrancisco
Austin
NYC-Midtown
Boston
Pittsburgh
SFNorthBay
NYC-Downtown
SanJose
EastBay
InlandEmpire
Portland,OR
OrangeCounty
NYC-Brooklyn
Sacramento
National Average 13.2%
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
ranked by positive net demand were Phoenix (3.6 MSF),
Chicago (3.5 MSF), Seattle (3.3 MSF), Dallas (2.9 MSF),
Philadelphia (2.6 MSF) and Los Angeles (2.4 MSF).
Absorption for the year was most negative (more space
was put on the market than taken off) in Silicon Valley
(-2.8 MSF), Houston (-1.8 MSF), East Bay San Francisco
(-927,000 SF) and Brooklyn (-847,600 SF).
The 6.9 MSF of absorption during the fourth quarter of
2016 was more than offset by the completion of 15.8 MSF
of new office space during the quarter. As a result the
national vacancy rate ticked upward slightly from 13.1% in
the third quarter to 13.2% in the fourth. This marks the
first quarter-to-quarter increase in the national vacancy
rate since the first quarter of 2010. Markets with the
highest vacancy rates at the end of 2016 were largely
suburban ones: Dayton (24.2%), Suburban Virginia
(21.3%), Fairfield County, CT (21.2%) and Westchester
County, NY (21.2%). Nashville retained its position as the
tightest market in the nation with a vacancy rate of 5.5%,
but that rate was up from 4.7% in the third quarter as
more than 1.1 MSF was completed in the fourth quarter.
Other tight markets include Midtown South (6.7%), San
Mateo County, CA (7.7%), Raleigh/Durham (7.8%) and
Seattle (7.8%).
Asking rents continued to trend higher. The fourth
quarter 2016 national weighted average asking rent for 87
markets tracked by Cushman & Wakefield was $29.71 per
square foot, up 0.8% from the third quarter, and a 5.7%
increase from a year earlier—the largest year-over-year
increase since 2008. The region with the fastest rent
growth was the West where asking rents increased 1.8%
during the fourth quarter and 8.7% from a year earlier.
This growth was led by strong increases in Northern
California, particularly the East Bay (+14.0% from a year
ago) and San Mateo County, CA (+16.3%) markets. A total
of 25 markets experienced rent declines in the fourth
quarter of 2016.
With last year’s moderation in employment growth and
an expanding pipeline of new product hitting markets
across the U.S., it appears that a corner is being turned.
The year 2017 will likely be one of flat vacancy with an
increasing possibility that vacancy rates will increase in a
number of markets as the year progresses.
6. MarketBeat U.S. Office Q4 2016 cushmanwakefield.com | 6
Vacancy Rates
Overall Direct
Vacancy Rate (All Classes) Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016p Q4 2016p
Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN 16.9% 17.0% 16.6% 16.6% 17.4% 17.0%
Nashville, TN 6.9% 5.8% 5.5% 4.7% 5.5% 5.5%
New Haven, CT 15.8% 15.6% 15.3% 12.0% 11.7% 11.1%
New Jersey - Central 16.7% 16.6% 16.6% 15.5% 15.4% 13.8%
New Jersey - Northern 20.2% 20.4% 19.3% 18.8% 18.9% 16.8%
New Orleans, LA 9.7% 9.9% 10.4% 9.8% 9.5% 14.6%
New York - Brooklyn 6.7% 8.0% 6.8% 8.7% 11.4% 10.7%
New York - Downtown 9.4% 10.2% 9.8% 9.9% 10.2% 9.3%
New York - Midtown 8.8% 9.3% 9.2% 9.5% 9.6% 8.3%
New York – Midtown South 6.2% 6.3% 6.3% 6.7% 6.7% 5.7%
Oklahoma City, OK 12.1% 13.0% 17.4% 12.4% 13.4% 11.7%
Omaha, NE 12.7% 11.8% 11.6% 12.0% 10.9% 10.5%
Orange County, CA 11.5% 11.9% 11.4% 11.3% 11.2% 10.7%
Orlando, FL 13.6% 12.8% 12.0% 11.7% 11.8% 11.6%
Palm Beach, FL 17.4% 18.6% 18.5% 17.4% 16.0% 15.7%
Philadelphia, PA 13.1% 13.3% 12.9% 12.3% 11.9% 11.5%
Phoenix, AZ 18.7% 18.2% 18.0% 17.8% 17.6% 16.5%
Pittsburgh, PA 10.1% 10.0% 9.2% 9.0% 9.7% 9.4%
Portland, OR 10.3% 10.8% 10.8% 10.8% 11.1% 10.5%
Providence, RI 12.8% 13.0% 12.8% 12.7% 12.7% 12.6%
Puget Sound - Eastside 10.2% 9.7% 10.5% 9.3% 8.8% 8.2%
Raleigh/Durham, NC 9.4% 9.7% 8.8% 9.4% 7.8% 7.4%
Richmond, VA 9.5% 8.8% 8.6% 9.0% 7.7% 7.6%
Roanoke, VA 8.4% 9.6% 9.8% 9.7% 9.1% 9.1%
Rochester, NY 15.6% 16.3% 15.0% 14.8% 15.6% 15.6%
Sacramento, CA 12.7% 12.8% 12.6% 12.0% 11.4% 11.1%
Salt Lake City, UT 11.4% 11.8% 11.4% 11.4% 12.2% 10.0%
San Antonio, TX 14.5% 15.1% 15.4% 12.9% 12.1% 11.8%
San Diego, CA 15.6% 15.6% 15.5% 15.1% 14.5% 12.2%
San Francisco North Bay, CA 11.3% 11.2% 10.8% 9.9% 9.9% 9.1%
San Francisco, CA 5.9% 5.7% 7.3% 7.7% 8.0% 6.0%
San Juan, PR 15.4% 15.1% 15.1% 15.0% 14.6% 14.6%
San Mateo County, CA 8.0% 7.7% 7.6% 7.5% 7.7% 6.1%
San Jose (Silicon Valley), CA* 8.3% 8.2% 9.0% 9.1% 10.2% 8.3%
Savannah, GA 17.9% 17.9% 16.7% 16.6% 17.2% 17.2%
Seattle, WA 9.4% 9.5% 8.9% 8.6% 7.8% 7.3%
Southern New Hampshire 17.0% 16.6% 15.5% 14.9% 14.9% 14.2%
St. Louis, MO 14.3% 13.2% 12.6% 12.4% 11.9% 11.5%
St. Petersburg/Clearwater, FL 15.9% 16.1% 14.9% 14.4% 16.3% 16.1%
Suburban MD 21.0% 20.8% 21.2% 21.2% 20.6% 19.7%
Suburban VA (Northern VA) 21.2% 21.4% 21.6% 21.1% 21.3% 20.2%
Syracuse, NY 14.4% 14.4% 14.1% 14.4% 14.9% 13.8%
Tampa, FL 12.4% 11.1% 12.2% 11.0% 11.9% 11.4%
Tucson, AZ 12.2% 11.8% 11.1% 11.0% 10.5% 10.4%
Tulsa, OK 18.3% 19.5% 18.4% 19.7% 19.9% 17.1%
Washington, DC 11.6% 11.8% 11.7% 11.9% 12,1% 11.3%
Westchester County, NY 20.7% 20.9% 22.4% 22.8% 21.2% 19.3%
p = preliminary
*Includes R&D
7. MarketBeat U.S. Office Q4 2016 cushmanwakefield.com | 7
Asking Rents
Overall (All Classes) Class A
Weighted Average Asking Rent Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016p Q4 2016p
United States $28.11 $28.62 $29.06 $29.46 $29.71 $36.63
Northeast $36.13 $36.68 $37.27 $38.14 $38.02 $44.77
Midwest $21.11 $21.67 $21.72 $21.93 $22.32 $26.81
South $25.85 $26.07 $26.36 $26.54 $26.68 $32.38
West $29.39 $30.16 $30.97 $31.39 $31.95 $39.13
U.S. Office Report Markets Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016p Q4 2016p
Atlanta, GA $22.23 $22.44 $23.07 $23.38 $23.39 $27.12
Austin, TX $33.37 $33.52 $33.54 $34.00 $34.19 $36.95
Baltimore, MD $22.79 $22.53 $21.56 $23.10 $23.59 $26.88
Binghamton, NY $13.75 $13.75 $13.52 $13.52 $13.30 $13.30
Birmingham, AL $18.44 $18.82 $19.18 $19.91 $19.72 $21.40
Boston, MA $32.91 $32.62 $33.98 $34.45 $34.38 $40.82
Buffalo, NY $17.70 $17.70 $17.70 $17.70 $17.70 $23.60
Charleston, SC $19.96 $19.30 $19.62 $19.39 $20.67 $29.49
Charlotte, NC $21.99 $22.13 $22.51 $22.70 $22.61 $26.59
Chicago, IL $28.60 $28.68 $28.69 $28.99 $29.68 $32.99
Cincinnati, OH $17.82 $17.74 $17.98 $17.89 $17.89 $21.68
Cleveland, OH $16.79 $16.92 $16.94 $17.20 $17.30 $22.69
Colorado Springs, CO $12.92 $13.37 $13.47 $13.50 $13.48 $14.30
Columbus, OH $20.40 $20.41 $20.49 $20.43 $20.51 $22.77
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX $24.15 $25.44 $25.39 $25.76 $25.64 $31.03
Dayton, OH $15.40 $15.04 $14.73 $14.96 $14.96 $19.55
Denver, CO $23.78 $24.56 $24.80 $25.09 $25.69 $29.90
Detroit, MI $15.93 $19.20 $19.18 $19.11 $19.30 $21.40
East Bay, CA* $24.16 $25.21 $25.52 $25.50 $27.54 $36.43
El Paso, TX $15.00 $15.00 $16.00 $16.00 $16.00 $17.00
Fairfield County, CT $35.32 $34.37 $34.72 $34.61 $34.25 $37.18
Fort Myers/Naples, FL $16.38 $16.27 $16.31 $16.36 $15.75 $20.18
Fredericksburg, VA $20.04 $20.09 $19.52 $19.45 $19.32 $23.55
Ft. Lauderdale, FL $26.27 $26.69 $27.33 $26.65 $26.92 $33.22
Greenville, SC $16.57 $16.26 $16.41 $16.97 $17.20 $22.65
Hampton Roads, VA $17.18 $17.09 $16.95 $17.19 $17.16 $20.29
Hartford, CT $20.34 $20.79 $20.87 $20.80 $20.89 $22.36
Houston, TX $29.17 $28.37 $29.17 $29.20 $28.85 $36.81
Indianapolis, IN $18.13 $17.54 $18.29 $17.75 $18.14 $19.78
Inland Empire CA $21.00 $21.24 $21.24 $21.12 $21.37 $25.61
Jacksonville, FL $17.94 $18.11 $18.22 $18.78 $18.92 $21.59
Kansas City, MO $18.61 $18.79 $19.04 $19.10 $19.26 $23.11
Las Vegas, NV $22.78 $21.36 $21.57 $21.81 $22.07 $30.88
Long Island, NY $29.54 $29.66 $29.79 $30.14 $29.86 $33.63
Los Angeles CBD $38.68 $39.27 $39.54 $40.23 $40.50 $40.87
Los Angeles Metro $33.02 $33.73 $34.06 $34.72 $35.12 $39.37
Louisville, KY $16.51 $16.57 $17.10 $16.73 $16.52 $20.35
Memphis, TN $17.75 $17.69 $18.00 $17.90 $17.69 $20.22
Miami, FL $34.20 $35.92 $35.87 $34.61 $35.84 $42.78
Milwaukee, WI $19.00 $19.00 $19.00 $19.00 $19.00 $21.75
8. MarketBeat U.S. Office Q4 2016 cushmanwakefield.com | 8
Asking Rents
Overall (All Classes) Class A
Weighted Average Asking Rent Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016p Q4 2016p
Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN $23.91 $23.86 $24.07 $24.51 $24.69 $29.24
Nashville, TN $21.84 $22.74 $22.75 $23.59 $24.78 $27.72
New Haven, CT $19.84 $20.61 $20.73 $20.83 $20.86 $22.84
New Jersey - Central $24.34 $24.20 $24.53 $24.23 $24.52 $28.50
New Jersey - Northern $27.24 $27.34 $27.61 $27.94 $27.88 $31.78
New Orleans, LA $16.65 $16.86 $17.01 $17.11 $17.33 $19.17
New York - Brooklyn $39.24 $37.30 $37.36 $45.29 $42.30 $53.31
New York - Downtown $59.58 $59.28 $59.14 $59.13 $59.30 $62.35
New York - Midtown $76.65 $78.42 $79.18 $79.91 $78.39 $83.61
New York – Midtown South $69.66 $68.58 $68.62 $70.29 $70.86 $88.60
Oklahoma City, OK $17.04 $16.44 $16.50 $16.83 $17.55 $21.97
Omaha, NE $19.40 $18.79 $18.72 $18.63 $18.97 $20.18
Orange County, CA $25.74 $25.92 $26.28 $27.56 $28.12 $34.46
Orlando, FL $20.94 $20.69 $20.61 $20.57 $20.68 $23.98
Palm Beach, FL $28.70 $30.83 $32.56 $33.75 $34.70 $38.44
Philadelphia, PA $24.55 $24.73 $25.11 $25.29 $25.38 $27.76
Phoenix, AZ $23.09 $23.29 $23.52 $23.95 $24.26 $28.17
Pittsburgh, PA $19.70 $18.07 $18.48 $18.11 $19.12 $24.57
Portland, OR $24.04 $24.77 $25.20 $25.79 $26.32 $29.36
Providence, RI $18.36 $18.31 $18.34 $18.36 $18.42 $24.03
Puget Sound - Eastside $33.17 $33.20 $32.81 $33.08 $33.55 $36.90
Raleigh/Durham, NC $21.49 $21.67 $21.97 $22.15 $22.47 $25.63
Richmond, VA $17.92 $18.06 $18.04 $18.03 $18.02 $20.48
Roanoke, VA $13.69 $13.75 $13.71 $13.93 $13.13 $21.16
Rochester, NY $19.75 $19.75 $19.75 $19.75 $19.75 $21.94
Sacramento, CA $21.02 $21.04 $21.24 $21.36 $20.46 $25.57
Salt Lake City, UT $22.48 $22.85 $22.93 $23.09 $23.34 $28.43
San Antonio, TX $20.33 $20.28 $20.50 $21.22 $21.00 $24.04
San Diego, CA $33.00 $33.24 $33.48 $34.32 $33.48 $39.24
San Francisco North Bay, CA $25.04 $26.48 $26.85 $27.20 $27.66 $34.56
San Francisco, CA $68.14 $68.44 $69.30 $69.21 $69.77 $71.24
San Juan, PR $18.49 $18.49 $18.02 $18.03 $18.03 $19.78
San Mateo County, CA $49.70 $55.55 $55.95 $56.55 $57.82 $61.65
San Jose (Silicon Valley), CA* $37.46 $38.88 $40.08 $39.60 $40.20 $52.92
Savannah, GA $19.06 $19.06 $19.05 $19.16 $19.28 $22.78
Seattle, WA $32.90 $32.08 $32.87 $33.99 $34.30 $38.72
Southern New Hampshire $17.48 $17.81 $17.40 $17.36 $17.36 $18.37
St. Louis, MO $19.15 $19.57 $19.52 $19.39 $19.43 $22.43
St. Petersburg/Clearwater, FL $19.21 $19.16 $19.24 $19.76 $21.26 $23.06
Suburban MD $26.26 $26.91 $26.77 $26.06 $26.33 $28.84
Suburban VA (Northern VA) $32.77 $32.14 $32.70 $31.88 $32.23 $35.18
Syracuse, NY $14.73 $14.48 $14.35 $14.51 $14.86 $16.56
Tampa, FL $22.79 $22.88 $23.15 $23.40 $23.09 $27.09
Tucson, AZ $18.93 $18.99 $18.63 $18.67 $18.61 $23.49
Tulsa, OK $13.46 $13.42 $13.42 $13.41 $13.42 $18.20
Washington, DC $51.68 $51.63 $51.74 $51.93 $52.96 $60.75
Westchester County, NY $29.81 $29.81 $29.83 $29.95 $29.69 $30.32
p = preliminary
*Includes R&D
9. MarketBeat U.S. Office Q4 2016 cushmanwakefield.com | 9
Inventory Inventory Deliveries 2016 Under Construction as of Q4 2016p
United States 5,198,532,160 52,374,692 100,228,615
Northeast 1,220,459,819 7,934,602 20,802,375
Midwest 810,729,878 7,880,555 9,706,063
South 1,756,166,858 19,670,483 38,066,036
West 1,411,175,605 16,889,052 31,654,141
U.S. Office Report Markets Inventory Deliveries 2016 Under Construction as of Q4 2016p
Atlanta, GA 139,540,126 504,983 4,024,415
Austin, TX 49,331,666 913,788 2,537,842
Baltimore, MD 80,019,422 1,917,246 1,768,227
Binghamton, NY 4,290,079 73,200 17,500
Birmingham, AL 18,616,567 0 300,000
Boston, MA 157,343,614 2,575,801 2,050,619
Buffalo, NY 21,881,417 30,000 318,000
Charleston, SC 23,475,936 326,374 454,934
Charlotte, NC 103,576,337 1,636,724 2,219,617
Chicago, IL 229,991,040 1,797,511 3,216,457
Cincinnati, OH 34,018,534 569,378 301,600
Cleveland, OH 146,028,488 904,650 619,613
Colorado Springs, CO 8,962,518 0 185,000
Columbus, OH 28,210,444 566,000 831,640
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX 219,128,265 3,759,079 6,981,880
Dayton, OH 14,117,889 0 25,014
Denver, CO 110,564,021 643,490 4,291,487
Detroit, MI 109,908,833 443,876 454,244
East Bay, CA* 109,261,653 20,000 250,000
El Paso, TX 17,810,070 344,000 547,000
Fairfield County, CT 41,505,969 0 0
Fort Myers/Naples, FL 28,923,959 154,584 149,341
Fredericksburg, VA 9,056,386 68,583 0
Ft. Lauderdale, FL 28,614,557 0 281,429
Greenville, SC 24,642,220 140,000 221,361
Hampton Roads, VA 39,184,559 140,260 250,000
Hartford, CT 24,383,096 0 0
Houston, TX 183,872,513 3,004,968 1,609,402
Indianapolis, IN 28,742,434 193,000 561,116
Inland Empire CA 21,706,705 0 0
Jacksonville, FL 24,897,208 86,751 0
Kansas City, MO 50,035,097 554,949 895,960
Las Vegas, NV 44,657,815 15,920 36,722
Long Island, NY 34,131,689 0 232,917
Los Angeles CBD 27,104,752 0 356,141
Los Angeles Metro 170,634,555 694,752 1,679,643
Louisville, KY 20,287,808 278,997 160,000
Memphis, TN 19,685,378 52,000 964,829
Miami, FL 46,798,239 300,832 933,070
Milwaukee, WI 28,179,600 565,017 1,259,000
Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN 71,827,576 1,849,085 771,185
Nashville, TN 35,400,910 1,432,536 2,817,170
New Haven, CT 10,629,286 0 0
Inventory
10. MarketBeat U.S. Office Q4 2016 cushmanwakefield.com | 10
Inventory Inventory Deliveries 2016 Under Construction as of Q4 2016p
New Jersey - Central 81,143,583 680,000 555,000
New Jersey - Northern 110,028,631 221,432 330,000
New Orleans, LA 30,228,444 30,000 0
New York - Brooklyn 28,303,900 668,002 2,044,100
New York - Downtown 87,979,022 0 2,491,861
New York - Midtown 242,313,113 1,892,954 9,531,930
New York – Midtown South 66,649,452 188,973 469,225
Oklahoma City, OK 21585042 377,572 878,000
Omaha, NE 20,899,967 271,911 255,000
Orange County, CA 87,336,208 477,387 1,380,975
Orlando, FL 37,868,905 153,000 134,000
Palm Beach, FL 23,843,554 0 88,069
Philadelphia, PA 129,180,766 699,969 1,392,853
Phoenix, AZ 101,146,283 2,954,697 1,665,520
Pittsburgh, PA 89,754,011 904,271 368,686
Portland, OR 44,729,292 1,151,188 1,059,814
Providence, RI 18,901,000 0 386,000
Puget Sound - Eastside 34,775,018 534,000 1,454,000
Raleigh/Durham, NC 50,507,900 364,393 2,025,146
Richmond, VA 52,463,906 239,563 115,000
Roanoke, VA 16,127,012 11,400 25,800
Rochester, NY 14,069,668 0 150,000
Sacramento, CA 87,393,061 251,782 249,222
Salt Lake City, UT 35,281,725 1,340,328 1,972,757
San Antonio, TX 31,197,264 167,600 595,241
San Diego, CA 74,046,665 1,036,986 1,129,680
San Francisco North Bay, CA 22,020,006 213,000 0
San Francisco, CA 77,766,389 1,481,054 3,771,515
San Juan, PR 10,382,974 n/a n/a
San Mateo County, CA 54,288,669 1,190,744 826,034
San Jose (Silicon Valley), CA* 211,146,845 2,960,493 7,239,857
Savannah, GA 3,406,377 0 0
Seattle, WA 62,585,702 1,797,281 4,089,503
Southern New Hampshire 12,998,019 0 76,684
St. Louis, MO 48,769,976 165,178 515,234
St. Petersburg/Clearwater, FL 12,580,428 0 0
Suburban MD 56,771,727 259,550 0
Suburban VA (Northern VA) 130,120,970 975,809 4,114,861
Syracuse, NY 16,070,253 0 387,000
Tampa, FL 32,199,130 176,089 111,600
Tucson, AZ 25,767,723 125,950 16,271
Tulsa, OK 24,970,607 276,400 247,850
Washington, DC 109,050,492 1,577,402 3,509,952
Westchester County, NY 28,903,251 0 0
Inventory
p = preliminary
*Includes R&D
11. Methodology
Cushman & Wakefield’s quarterly estimates are derived from a variety of data sources, including its own proprietary database, and
historical data from third party data sources. The market statistics are calculated from a base building inventory made up of office
properties deemed to be competitive in the local office markets. Generally, owner-occupied and federally-owned buildings are not
included. Single tenant buildings and privately-owned buildings in which the federal government leases space are included. Older
buildings unfit for occupancy or ones that require substantial renovation before tenancy are generally not included in the
competitive inventory. The inventory is subject to revisions due to resampling. Vacant space is defined as space that is available
immediately or imminently after the end of the quarter. Sublet space still occupied by the tenant is not counted as available space.
The figures provided for the current quarter are preliminary, and all information contained in the report is subject to correction of
errors and revisions based on additional data received.
Regional Map
West
Midwest
South
Northeast
Explanation of Terms
Total Inventory: The total amount of office space (in buildings of a
predetermined size by market) that can be rented by a third party.
Overall Vacancy Rate: The amount of unoccupied space (new, relet, and
sublet) expressed as a percentage of total inventory.
Direct Vacancy Rate: The amount of unoccupied space available directly
through the landlord, excludes sublease space.
Absorption: The net change in occupied space between two points in time.
(Total occupied space in the present quarter minus total occupied space from
the previous quarter, quoted on a net, not gross, basis.)
Leasing Activity: The sum of all leases over a period of time. This includes
pre-leasing activity as well as expansions. It does not include renewals.
Overall Weighted Asking Rents: Gross average asking rents weighted by the
amount of available direct and sublease space in Class A, B and C properties.
Class A Asking Rents: Gross average asking rents weighted by the amount of
available Class A direct and sublease space.
Ken McCarthy
Principal Economist,
Applied Research Lead
Tel: +1 212.841.7500
cushmanwakefield.com
About Cushman & Wakefield
Cushman & Wakefield is a leading global real estate services firm that helps
clients transform the way people work, shop, and live. Our 43,000 employees
in more than 60 countries help investors and occupiers optimize the value
of their real estate by combining our global perspective and deep local
knowledge with an impressive platform of real estate solutions. Cushman
& Wakefield is among the largest commercial real estate services firms
with revenue of $5 billion across core services of agency leasing, asset
services, capital markets, facility services (C&W Services), global
occupier services, investment & asset management (DTZ Investors),
project & development services, tenant representation, and
valuation & advisory. To learn more, visit www.cushmanwakefield.
com or follow @CushWake on Twitter.
Cushman & Wakefield Copyright 2017. No warranty or representation, express or implied, is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, and same is submitted subject to errors,
omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, withdrawal without notice, and to any special listing conditions imposed by the property owner(s). As applicable, we make no representation as to the condition of
the property (or properties) in question.