The document summarizes key findings from 31 years of the Kinder Houston Area Survey, which has tracked economic, demographic, and social changes in the Houston region through representative samples of Harris County residents each year since 1982. Some of the main trends highlighted include: - The transition from an oil and gas-based economy to a more knowledge-based, skilled workforce economy. Most well-paying jobs now require higher education. - Rapid demographic changes, with Houston now being one of the most ethnically diverse cities in the US, and Anglo populations declining as Hispanic and Asian populations increase. - Changing preferences toward more urban living, walking/biking accessibility, and quality of place factors like the environment and cultural amenities

1. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT:
Tracking Houston’s Economic and Demogra-
phic Changes through 31 Years of Surveys
STEPHEN L. KLINEBERG
The Houston Association of Realtors: H-TOWN DAY
2012
4 October 2012

2. KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY (1982-2012)
Supported by local foundations, corporations, and individuals,
and now with a permanent home in the Kinder Institute for
Urban Research, the annual surveys have interviewed 31
successive representative samples of Harris County residents.
In May 1982, just two months after the first Houston-area survey
was completed, the 80-year oil boom suddenly collapsed.
The region recovered from the deep and prolonged recession of
the mid 1980s to find itself squarely in the midst of …
 a restructured economy and
 a demographic revolution.
These are the same transformations that are refashioning all of
American society. The Houston surveys have tracked area
residents’ changing perspectives on these remarkable trends.

3. THE RESTRUCTURED ECONOMY
The “resource economy” of the industrial era, for which this
city was so favorably positioned, has been replaced by a new
high-technology, knowledge-based, fully worldwide
marketplace.
The traditional “blue collar path” to financial security has now
largely disappeared. Almost all the well-paid jobs today require
high levels of technical skills and educational credentials.
In the 2012 survey, 65% of the survey respondents agreed that
“There are very few good jobs in today’s economy for people
without a college education.” In 2011, 78% disagreed that “A
high school education is enough to get a good job.”
In this increasingly unequal, hourglass economy, “What you
earn,” as the saying goes, “depends on what you’ve learned.”

4. POSITIVE PERCEPTIONS OF JOB OPPORTUNITIES IN
HOUSTON (1982–2012)
100
90
80
71
68
70 66
64
58 57
60
PERCENT GIVING POSITIVE RATINGS
48
50
43 42 45
40
41
36 35 35
30
20 25
10
11
0
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
YEAR OF SURVEY

5. NEGATIVE PERCEPTIONS OF JOB OPPORTUNITIES
AND ACTUAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (1982-2012)
100 11.0
Negative ratings of job opportunities
10.5
90 10.1
9.8 Official unemployment rates in Harris County 10.0
86
80 9.5
72
9.0
70 8.6
8.4
8.5
61 61
60 7.8 57 8.0
PERCENT GIVING NEGATIVE RATINGS
54 61
7.3 7.5
OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
53
50 55
6.8 51 7.0
40 6.6 6.5
6.7 34
32 40 41
6.0
30
28 5.5
20 5.0
5.1
4.7 4.5 4.5
10 4.4 4.3 4.0
4.0
0 3.5
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
YEAR OF SURVEY
SOURCE: US DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS. UNEMPLOYMENT RATES ARE NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED.

6. PERCENT DOING BETTER IN LAST FEW YEARS AND
EXPECTING TO DO BETTER IN NEXT FEW YEARS
80
70 Will be 'better off' financially three 66
65
or four years down the road.
62
59 58
60 57 57
56
54
49
50
44
47
42 42
40 41
PERCENT SAYING 'BETTER'
33 28 27
30 31
31
Personal financial situation has been
'getting better' during the last few years
20 23
20
10
0
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
YEAR OF SURVEY

7. PERCENT WITH PROBLEMS BUYING THE
GROCERIES TO FEED THEIR FAMILIES (2002-2012)
50
If R has a child living at home: “How serious a problem has it been for
you personally during the past year to buy the groceries you need to feed
your family? Has that been a very serious problem, somewhat serious, or
not much of a problem for you during the past year?”
40
Percent saying: “somewhat” or “very serious” problem. (r=+.070, p=.000)
32
30
30 28
PERCENT HAVING ‘SOME PROBLEM'
20 20
20
10
0
2002 2009 2010 2011 2012

8. THE NEW IMPORTANCE OF QUALITY OF
PLACE CONSIDERATIONS
Houston's prospects will now increasingly depend on the ability
of the region to attract and retain the nation’s most skilled and
creative “knowledge workers” and high-tech companies.
This will require continued significant improvements in …
 the healthfulness of the region’s air and water quality
 the excellence of its venues for sports, arts, and culture
 its overall physical attractiveness and aesthetic appeal
 the enhancement of its green spaces, trees, and bayous
 the revitalization and preservation of its urban centers
 the region’s mobility through its transportation systems
 the richness of its hiking, boating, and birding areas
The public’s support for new initiatives along these lines has
remained firm or grown stronger across the years of surveys.

9. RESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES (2008-2012)
100
"If you could choose where to live in the Houston area, which would you prefer? "
90
A single-family home with big yard, where you would need to drive almost everywhere you want to go?
A smaller home in a more urbanized area, within walking distance of shops and workplaces?
80
Don't know/Can't say.
70 (correlation with year: r=+.109, p=.000)
59 58
60
51
50 47
39
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
40 36
30
20
10
5
3 2
0
2008 2010 2012

10. THE INTEREST AMONG ANGLOS IN SOMEDAY
MOVING FROM SUBURBS TO CITY AND FROM CITY
TO SUBURBS (1999-2012)
65
If lives in SUBURBS: 'very' or 'somewhat interested' in someday moving to the city.
60
PERCENT SAYING 'VERY' OR 'SOMEWHAT INTERESTED’
If lives in CITY: 'very' or 'somewhat interested' in someday moving to the suburbs.
55
52
50 48
47
45 r= -.092, p=.000
44 40
39
40
37
34
35 33
31 31
29 29
30 33 28
26 26 28
29
25 27 22 27
20
20 22 r= +.038, p=.009
15
10 [Anglo respondents only.]
5
1999 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
YEAR OF SURVEY

11. THE DEMOGRAPHIC REVOLUTION
 Along with the major immigration capitals of L.A. and N.Y.C.,
and closely following Miami, San Francisco, and Chicago,
Houston is at the forefront of the new diversity that is
rapidly refashioning the socio-political landscape of urban
America.
 Throughout all of its history …
• this was essentially a bi-racial Southern city,
• dominated and controlled, in an automatic, taken-
for-granted way, by white men.
 Today …
• Houston is the most culturally diverse metropolitan
area in the country, and
• all of its ethnic communities are now minorities.

12. THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATIONS OF HARRIS
COUNTY (U.S. CENSUS, 1960-2010)
4.5
Asians/Others 7.7%
4.0
Hispanics
3.5 6.3%
Blacks
3.0 Anglos 4.1%
40.8%
2.5 2.1% 22.7% 32.9%
15.5%
2.0
POPULATION, IN MILLIONS
0.8%
19.1% 18.3%
9.9% 19.7% 18.4%
1.5
0.3% 20.1%
6.0%
1.0 19.8%
54.0% 42.5% 33.0%
0.5 73.9% 69.2% 62.7%
0.0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
(1,243,258) (1,741,912) (2,409,547) (2,818,199) (3,400,578) (4,092,459)
SOURCE: US CENSUS. CLASSIFICATIONS BASED ON TEXAS STATE DATA CENTER CONVENTIONS.

17. THE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES IN THE FOUR
LARGEST SURROUNDING COUNTIES (2000-2010)
700,000
Asians/Others
600,000 19.0% Hispanics
Blacks
500,000 Anglos
4.0%
400,000 23.7% 20.8%
13.1%
4.1% 7.3%
300,000 2.5% 4.8%
21.1% 21.1% 12.6% 3.7%
3.5%
27.7%
3.4% 22.4%
18.0% 22.8%
200,000 11.8%
19.6% 71.2% 13.5%
15.3% 8.3%
POPULATION
81.4% 53.2%
100,000 36.2%
63.1% 59.3%
65.4%
46.2%
0
Fort Bend-2000 Fort Bend-2010 Montgomery-2000 Montgomery-2010 Galveston-2000 Galveston-2010 Brazoria-2000 Brazoria-2010
(354,452) (585,375) (293,768) (455,746) (250,158) (291,309) (241,767) (313,166)
SOURCE: US CENSUS. CLASSIFICATIONS BASED ON TEXAS STATE DATA CENTER CONVENTIONS.

18. INTERACTIONS OF ETHNICITY AND AGE
 The other demographic revolution: the remarkable “aging,”
or “graying,” of the American population.
 Today’s seniors are primarily Anglos, and so are the 76
million
Baby Boomers, now aged 47 to 65. During the next 30 years,
the numbers of Americans over the age of 65 will double.
 The younger generations are disproportionately non-Anglo
and generally far less privileged, in terms of their levels of
income, education, health status, and life chances.
 Nowhere is this ongoing transformation more clearly seen
than in the age distributions of Harris County’s population.

19. ETHNICITY BY AGE IN HARRIS COUNTY
(U.S. CENSUS, 2010)
70
Anglos Blacks Hispanics Asians/Others
60 57
51
50
47 46
43
40
31
30
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
27 28
24
19 19 18 19 19
20 17
10 7 8 7
7
6
0
AGES 65-90+ AGES 47-64 AGES 30-46 AGES 18-29 AGES 0-17
SOURCE: US CENSUS. CLASSIFICATIONS BASED ON TEXAS STATE DATA CENTER CONVENTIONS.

20. ASSESSMENTS OF ETHNIC RELATIONS IN THE
HOUSTON AREA, BY ETHNICITY (1992-2012)
65
Percent rating "the relations among ethnic groups in
60 the Houston area" as either "excellent" or "good."
54 53
55 Anglos r= +.186, p=.000
51
Blacks r= +.133, p=.000 Anglos
50 48 48
Latinos r= +.096, p=.000 49
45
41
40
40 39 35
PERCENT GIVING POSITIVE RATINGS
35 Latinos 38
30 33 33
27 Blacks
25
27
20
21
15
14
10
5
0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
YEAR OF SURVEY

21. SUPPORT FOR “ILLEGAL” IMMIGRANTS (2008-2012)
120
The influx of undocumented Favor: "Granting illegal immigrants in the Favor: "Allowing the
110 immigrants is not a "very U.S. a path to legal citizenship, if they speak children of undocu-
serious" problem for the city. English and have no criminal record." mented immigrants to
become U.S. citizens, if
100 graduated from college
(r=.045, p=.001) (r=.028, p=.008) or served in military."
90
83 82
80
74
71
70 66 66
63 64
60
51
50
43
40
30
20
10
0
2008 2010 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2010 2012

22. INTERETHNIC ROMANTIC RELATIONSHIPS BY
AGE, ANGLOS ONLY (2007 AND 2011, COMBINED)
100
“Have you ever been in a romantic
90 relationship with someone who was not
87
Anglo?” (Anglo respondents only.)
80 No Yes
72
70
60
60 57 58
49 50
50
42
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS
40 39
40
30 28
20
13
10
0
AGES 18-29 AGES 30-39 AGES 40-49 AGES 50-59 AGES 60-69 AGES 70-93

23. ETHNIC ATTITUDES BY AGE AMONG ANGLOS
(2006-2011, COMBINED)
100
90 Ages 18-29 Ages 30-44 Ages 45-59 Ages 60-93
80
73
70
70 66 66
PERCENT AGREEING IN EACH AGE-GROUP
62
60 59
60
53 53 53
50 47 46 45
40 36 35 36
30
20
10
0
Houston's increasing diversity The increasing immigration The influx of undocumented Favor: Granting illegal
will eventually become a into this country today mostly immigrants is NOT a 'very immigrants a path to legal
source of great strength for strengthens American culture. serious' problem for Houston. citizenship, if speak English
the city. and no criminal record.

24. THE NEW PRO-GROWTH AGENDA
 To prosper in the high-technology, knowledge-based, worldwide
economy, this city (and nation) will need to nurture a far more
educated workforce and fashion policies to reduce the growing
inequalities and prevent the rise of a new urban underclass.
 To attract the most innovative companies and talented individuals,
Houston will need to grow into a more environmentally and aes-
thetically appealing urban destination, and develop the research
centers that will fuel the engines of growth in the new economy.
 If this region is to flourish in the years ahead, it will need to develop
into a much more unified and inclusive multiethnic society, in which
equality of opportunity is truly made available to all citizens and all
of its communities are empowered to participate as full partners in
shaping the Houston future.

25. CONTACT US FOR MORE
INFORMATION:
THE KINDER INSTITUTE FOR URBAN
RESEARCH AT RICE UNIVERSITY
PROFESSORS STEPHEN KLINEBERG AND MICHAEL EMERSON,
CO-DIRECTORS
www.kinder.rice.edu
kinder@rice.edu
713-348-4132