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FPSO: Perspectives from the equity market

                                                                      September 2010




Erik Tønne
erik.tonne@arcticsec.no
+47 21 01 32 26
+47 48 40 32 26
Agenda/key topics highlighted in this presentation


    Market development: Is the situation in the market picking up?


    How do investors and analysts look at the FPSO-sector? What are their
    evaluation criteria?


    Is the market willing to finance new developments? Is the financing
    situation on the road to recovery?


    What are the main concerns for investors in financing FPSO-projects and
    how can you achieve a win-win deal with project financiers?




                                                                              2
Underlying market development: Growth has been good and steady, and will
likely continue to be so
FPS (installed
base)
 280

 260
                      SPARs                                                                                                          CAGR, number of
 240
                                                                                                                                     units 1999-2009                       222 225
 220
                      TLPs                                                                                                                                           214
                                                                                                                                                                           16   18
                                                                                                                                                                      15
 200                  Production Semi’s                                                                                                        +9%             190         22   22
                                                                                                                                                                     22
  18 0                                                                                                                                                 176     14
                      FPSOs                                                                                                                        166 13
                                                                                                                                                               20          40   41
  16 0                                                                                                                                         149 12   18           40
  14 0                                                                                                                                    137    9 18
                                                                                                                                     127      6 15             40
                                                                                                                           112 117       3 13           37
  12 0                                                                                                                                              36
                                                                                                                               2 11 3 14
                                                                                                                            11                  36
  10 0                                                                                                                93                   35
                                                                                                   80                    2            34
                                                                                                                      8     32   33
                                                                                                   7 1
   80
                                                            25                                65                                                                     137 144 144
                                                                                         57      1     30
   60                                                         0                      50     0 6    26                                                        116
                                                                     34         43 0 4 0 5    22                                                     100 108
                                                              2            37 0          21                                               83   89
   40                                                           31 0     0           18                                              76
             0   0   0   0   0   0    0    0 19 0 20 0 21 0 10                3 16 3                                       67   70
   20        0   0   0   0   0   0 11 1 13 1    1    1    1     10 2 11 2 12                       46  53
                                                                                              36
           1 0 2 0 5 1 6 1 7 1 9 3    4    4 12 6 13 6 13 7 13  19    21   22   24   28  31
     0     1   2   4   5   6   6    6    8

          78     79    80        81   82   83   84   85   86   87   88   89   90   91   92   93   94   95   96   97   98   99   00   01   02   03    04   05   06    07    08   09




          CAGR of 9% last 10 years

          Underlying rationale for floating production solutions is strong – deeper, further from shore, more marginal
          fields etc. FPSOs are cost-efficient and versatile solutions (for the oil companies at least)

          FPSOs continue to dominate as the most widely used floating production solution



                                                        We expect floating production to continue to see
                                                        We expect floating production to continue to see
                                                     healthy / strong growth rates for the foreseeable future
                                                     healthy / strong growth rates for the foreseeable future



                                                                                                                                                                                     3
Source: IMA; Arctic Securities
Recent market development: A strong upswing in FPSO contract-awards…

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   6 Projects awarded H2/09                                                                                                                             19 Projects awarded so far
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        in 2010:
                                                                                                                                                                                        Order intake, new Floating Production Units (FPUs) ordered                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1. Aseng to SBM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2. Papa Terra to BWO/Quip                                                                                                                            1. Kitan to Bluewater
                   18                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              3. Chim Sao to EOC                                                                                                                                   (redeployment)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   4. TGT to Bumi Armada                                                                                                                                2. Guara to MODEC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         16                                        5. Aquila to Saipem                                                                                                                                  3. OSX-1 to OSX (old Nexus)
                   16                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              6. Baleia Azul to SBM                                                                                                                                4. Goliath EPC-contract to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   (redeployment)                                                                                                                                       Hyundai
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        5. Athena LoI to BWO
                   14                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   6. Huntington LoI to SEVAN
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        (redeployment)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          12            7. Tupi Nordeste to SBM-
                   12                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   consortium
                                                                                                                                                                                         11 11                                                          11                                                                                              11                                                                                              11                                                                                                                                                                              8. Sidon/Tiro to Teekay
Nr of FPU orders




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         10                                                                                                                               10                                                                                                            9. TSB to BWO
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        10. Aruana to Teekay
                   10                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        9                                               9                              9                                                                                                                           (redeployment)
                                                                                                                                                                           8                                               8                                                                                                                8                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           11. Pagerungan Utara to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        BLT (redeployment)
                    8      7                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               7                                                                                                                                                                                                7                           12.-19. Eight pre-salt FPSO-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        hulls (LoI to Engevix/GVA/
                                                                                                                                         6                 6                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              6                                             Cosco)
                    6                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       5                                                5
                                          4                                                                4                                                                                                                                4                                                               4                                                                                                                                                                                                                               4
                    4                                     3               3               3                                                                                                                                                                                  3              3
                                                                                                                          2                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2
                    2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           0              0
                    0
                        Jun-Sep 97
                                     Oct 97 - Feb 98




                                                                                                                                     Dec 99 - Mar 00




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Dec 04 - Mar 05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Dec 06 - Mar 07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Dec 07 - Mar 08


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Aug - Dec 08
                                                                                     Nov 98 - Feb 99




                                                                                                                                                       Apr - Sep 00


                                                                                                                                                                                        Feb - Jun 01




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Feb - Jun 03




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Aug 09 - Dec 09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jan 10 - Jun 10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jan - Apr 09
                                                       Mar - Jun 98
                                                                      Jul - Oct 98


                                                                                                       Mar - Jul 99




                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jul - Oct 01


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Apr - Jul 02




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr - Jul 04




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr - Jul 05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr - Jul 07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr - Jul 08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Apr - Jul 09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jul - Aug 10
                                                                                                                      Aug - Nov 99




                                                                                                                                                                      Oct 00 - Jan 01




                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Nov 01 - Mar 02


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Aug 02 - Jan 03


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jul - Oct 03
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Nov 03 - Mar 04


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Aug - Nov 04




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Aug - Oct 05


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr - Jul 06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Nov 05 - Mar 06


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Aug - Nov 06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Aug - Nov 07
                                                  Even if excluding the eight pre-salt hulls for Petrobras, we are at 11 contracts YTD, representing a decent
                                                  Even if excluding the eight pre-salt hulls for Petrobras, we are at 11 contracts YTD, representing a decent
                                                                  level. More to come with e.g. CLOV, OSX-2 and Frøy so far not announced
                                                                   level. More to come with e.g. CLOV, OSX-2 and Frøy so far not announced


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              4
                                 Source: IMA; Arctic Securities
…Resulting in the order backlog (nr. of units under construction) at yards
turning again
                                        Floating Production Systems on order/under construction, Quarterly since Q3/96
          80                                                                                                                                                                                       If excluding the 8 pre-salt
                                                                                                                                                                                                   hulls, order backlog would
                                                                                                                                                                                                   have been at 41 units, still
          70                                                                                                                                      67                                               confirming the turn (though
                                                                                                                                                       65                                          more modestly)
                                                                                                                                             60             60
          60                                                                                                                            57                       56

                                                                                                                                                                      49                     49
          50                                                                                                                    46 46
                                                                                                                           43
                                                                                             41                                                                            41 40
                     37 36                                                   37 37   38 39        38 37 37                                                                         37
                                                                                                                                                                                        39
          40                      35                                                                                                                                                              Average = 39
                                       33                                                                    34 34 35 34
                31           32
                                            30
          30                                                            27
                                                 23
                                                      21        21 22
          20                                               17


          10


            0
                Q3/96
                Q1/97
                Q2/97
                Q3/97
                Q1/98
                Q3/98
                Q4/98
                Q1/99
                Q3/99
                Q4/99
                Q2/00
                Q3/00
                Q1/01
                Q3/01
                Q4/01
                Q2/02
                Q3/02
                Q1/03
                Q2/03
                Q4/03
                Q1/04
                Q3/04
                Q4/04
                Q2/05
                Q3/05
                Q4/05
                Q1/06
                Q3/06
                Q4/06
                Q1/07
                Q3/07
                Q4/07
                Q1/08
                Q3/08
                Q4/08
                Q1/09
                Q3/09
                Q4/09
                Q1/10
                Q3/10
           During Q1/10, order backlog increased again for the first time in eight quarters, following a steady
           drop
           We expect order backlog to come up further: Demand is pent-up, and backlog should continue to
           build as FIDs (Final Investment Decisions) gain momentum




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  5
Note: Excludes storage-only units, MOPUs and LNG RVs (shuttle/regas vessels)
Source: IMA; Arctic Securities
Demand-side remains strong! In spite of many awards since Aug-09, number of projects
         in the Bid/final design phase remains steady
         Implying oil companies continue to move on projects, gradually progressing them to FID and contract-award



                                       Number of FPSO-projects in the bid/
                                final design phase (see next two slides for details)             Number of projects in the Bid/Final Design phase
                                                                                                 describes projects that are close to FID and contract-
        Nr of units                                                                              award
         35
                                                 33      33                                      In spite of 25 awards since Aug-09, this number
                                                                         32                      remains fairly steady
                                                                                         31
         30
                                                                                                 This implies the number of projects progressing from
                                                                                                 “Planning” to “Bid/Final design” remains high; i.e.
         25             25
                                                                                                 demand-side remains strong
                                                                                                 We also believe it’s positive that this number
         20                                                                                      remained fairly steady through the financial turmoil,
                                                                                                 demonstrating oil companies continued to mature
         15                                                                                      projects
                                                                                                 In short, we believe the demand-side is pent-up, and
         10                                                                                      that conditions are now increasingly in place for
                                                                                                 more contract awards again
             5                                                                                         The oil price is steady (enabling planning) on
                                                                                                       back of healthy demand
             0                                                                                         Input-costs (steel, yard-capacity etc) have come
                     Oct-08                Dec-08      Sep-09         Nov-09           Current         down
                                                                                                       Access to financing for smaller E&Ps and FPSO-
Of which                                                                                               operators has improved
                         1                       1        1               1               2
FLNG units




                                                                                                                                                        6
         Source: IMA; Press; Arctic Securities
Industry majors are increasingly positive – both amongst oil companies and
major contractors




                                    We’re noticing more positive signals from most (all) of the companies,
                                    We’re noticing more positive signals from most (all) of the companies,
                                     especially within subsea, field development and floating production
                                     especially within subsea, field development and floating production

                                                                                                             7
Source: Technip (Mar/Apr-10); Arctic Securities
Industry survey: Industry-players are more optimistic, reflecting higher
tendering-levels and improved market-conditions
Industry sees on average 12 contracts in 2010 and 15 contracts in 2011
                     Industry-players significantly more                                                                               On average, the players expect a further
                  optimistic compared to last year’s survey                                                                           increase in number of awards during 2011

30                                                                                                                 30
           “How many FPSO-lease contracts do you expect will                       25                                         “How many FPSO-lease contracts do you expect
25         be awarded across the industry by year-end?”                                                            25         will be awarded across the industry next year?”               23

20                 2010-results                                                                                    20                  2010-results

                   2009-results                                                                                                        2009-results                             16
                                                                                                                                                                  15
15                                                                                                                  15
                                                    12
                                                                       10                                                                   10           11
10                                                                                                                  10
                                           7                                                                                     7
              5         5
 5                                                                                                                      5


 0                                                                                                                      0
                  Low                       Average                         High                                                      Low                  Average                   High



         Competitive pressure reduced. Some players even                                                                    Major input costs have dropped further since last year.
       comment being in single-source discussions for projects                                                                  Companies’ answers for 2010 vary significantly
30                                                                                                                 0

           How many bidders are there on average                                                                  -1
25                                                                                                                                                                              -1
           involved in projects you are tendering for?                                                            -2

20                 2010-results                                                                                   -3           -3                        -3
                                                                                                                                                                                            -3
                                                                                                                  -4
                   2009-results                                                                                                                                    -4
15                                                                                                                -5
                                                                                                                                                                                     2010-results
                                                                                                                  -6
10                                                                     8
                                                                                                                  -7                                                                 2009-results
                                                                                   6
                                           5                                                                                                -7
 5                                                    4                                                           -8
              3
                        1                                                                                                    How have input prices developed over the past
                                                                                                                  -9         12 months? (%-change)
 0
                                                                                                                 - 10
                  Low                       Average                         High
                                                                                                                                Yard costs              Major topside           Other costs
                                                                                                                                                       equipment costs


                                                                                                                                                                                                    8
Note: Survey conducted in Q2/09 and Q2/10 respectively. Participants: MODEC, PROD, Maersk, FOP, SEVAN, BWO (10 only), SBM (09 only)
Source: Companies; Arctic Securities
High-end of the lease segment consolidates with BWO-PROD combining.
         Competitive pressure should be further reduced, boding well for returns
                            Company                                                Number of lease FPSOs in operation or under construction

                                                                                      1       2        3       4   5   6   7     8   9   10   11   12   13   14    15   16   17

                            SBM

                            MODEC

                            Prosafe Production

                            BW Offshore                                                                                                                 Combining to
     Limited                                                                                                                                             one entity
    financial               Bluewater
bidding capacity
                            Maersk
 Mainly N.Sea               Petrojarl (Teekay)

                            Sevan FPSO
   Financial                Saipem
   capacity?
                            Bumi Armada

                            Fred. Olsen Production
 Likely to take             Rubicon
   one more
 project only?              Sea Production

                            Tanker Pacific (TPOT)

                            Single unit owners


                                                                                   Contracted FPSOs in operation

                                                                                   Contracted FPSOs in operation (operations only)

                                                                                   Contracted units under construction/conversion

                                                                                   Construction on speculation

                                                                                   Idle


                    To conclude, we believe it’s fair to say the market is picking up and that bargaining position for
                    To conclude, we believe it’s fair to say the market is picking up and that bargaining position for
                                     the remaining players has improved and continues to do so!
                                     the remaining players has improved and continues to do so!
                                                                                                                                                                                  9
         Note: Does not include turnkey FPSOs, i.e. only includes FPSOs owned and operated by the FPSO-companies
         Source: Companies; IMA; Arctic Securities
Agenda/key topics highlighted in this presentation


    Market development: Is the situation in the market picking up?


    How do investors and analysts look at the FPSO-sector? What are their
    evaluation criteria?


    Is the market willing to finance new developments? Is the financing
    situation on the road to recovery?


    What are the main concerns for investors in financing FPSO-projects and
    how can you achieve a win-win deal with project financiers?




                                                                              10
Few (equity) investors have a detailed understanding of the FPSO-segment


      Hard to place all in one group. Many are generalists. Investment strategies and
      exposures vary - across industries, geographies and asset classes


      Some are oil services “specialists” – even these sometimes have detailed knowledge of
      the floating production business


      Available time to dedicate to detailed analysis of selected companies is limited


      Valuation approaches are usually “simple”: Valuation metrics (multiples), relative to
      other segments, look at potential for earnings-upgrades/re-valuation. Some do
      modeling/DCF-analyses/more detailed work


      History matters…


      Opinions and momentum can turn rapidly – from loved by everyone to hated by
      everyone (usually infectious)




                                                                                              11
Source: Arctic Securities
The floating production segment has spooked investors – for obvious reasons

      A string of disappointments…
           Shares have been a disaster – even in companies perceived to be “solid” and steady-performing
           businesses
                BWO listed at NOK 25 May-06, currently at NOK 8.0
                PROD listed at NOK 36 Feb-08, currently at NOK 13.0
                Add to this; Aker Floating Production, Sevan… - not a joyride for shareholders
           Leading established players – e.g. SBM – have also disappointed with significant delays to EPC-
           contracts (rigs, Yme, Deep Panuke), and are trading at historically low P/B-levels


      Speculative entrants (mainly originated out of Norway) didn’t help the situation
          Very hard to point to any success-stories. Massive value destruction
          Nexus, Petroprod, FPSOcean, MPF, Nortechs/Songa Floating Production


      The financial community helped fuel the hype…
          “Floating Production is the new deepwater drilling”
          “If we assume two new contracts won per year at 15% IRR…”


      …and failed to recognize fundamental aspects of the business
          No upside through e.g. rate-fluctuations – i.e. rate locked once capex is agreed upon/contract signed

           A lot went wrong operationally (poor contracts, too low contingencies, supply-chain tightness 
           A lot went wrong operationally (poor contracts, too low contingencies, supply-chain tightness 
                              delays & overruns etc.), and a lot of investors got burned
                              delays & overruns etc.), and a lot of investors got burned


                                                                                                             12
Source: Arctic Securities
Norwegian FPSO-peers: By far the worst segment during the recent meltdown…


   140



   120



   100



     80



     60



     40



     20



       0
      May-08 Jul-08                  Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09   Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10   Sep-10

                                            Drillers NOR   Subsea NOR   Supply NOR     FPSO NOR    Seismic NOR




                                                                                                                                      13
Source: Factset; Arctic Securities
…and clearly the laggard since the market started improving again

     370



     320



     270



     220



     170



     120



       70
          Mar-      Apr- May- Jun-   Jul-   Aug- Sep-   Oct-   Nov- Dec-   Jan-   Feb- Mar-   Apr- May- Jun-    Jul-   Aug- Sep-
           09        09   09   09     09     09   09     09     09   09     10     10   10     10   10   10      10     10   10

                                     Drillers NOR   Subsea NOR       Supply NOR      FPSO NOR     Seismic NOR


                                     Hard to get investors’ enthusiasm up when the segment
                                     Hard to get investors’ enthusiasm up when the segment
                                       has underperformed all other oil services segments
                                       has underperformed all other oil services segments

                                                                                                                                   14
Source: Factset; Arctic Securities
Adjusting for worst performers (AKFP & SEVAN), some of the FPSO-peers have performed
      more in line with other oil services segments since the market started coming up again

370                                                                                                                                   BWO up strongly
                                                                                                                                      lately on back of
350                                                                                                                                       APL-sale
330
310
290
270
250
230                                                                                                                                    FOP in line with
210                                                                                                                                   drillers and supply

190
170
150
130                                                                                                                                      PROD, SBM and
                                                                                                                                         MODEC under-
110
                                                                                                                                           performing
90
70
50
  Mar-    Apr- May- Jun-              Jul-   Aug-   Sep- Oct-    Nov- Dec-   Jan-   Feb- Mar-    Apr- May- Jun-    Jul-   Aug- Sep-
   09      09   09   09                09     09     09   09      09   09     10     10   10      10   10   10      10     10   10


         Drillers NOR            Subsea NOR         Supply NOR      Seismic NOR      BWO        PROD    FOP       SBMO     MODEC




                   A key question investors are asking themselves is: “Why should II invest in this, when there are so
                   A key question investors are asking themselves is: “Why should invest in this, when there are so
                                                       many other alternatives”
                                                        many other alternatives”



                                                                                                                                                            15
      Source: Factset; Arctic Securities
Creating value for shareholders…?




                            Shareholders care about this… it’s more or less the only thing they care about!
                            Shareholders care about this… it’s more or less the only thing they care about!

                                                                                                              16
Source: Vitae Energy; Arctic Securities
Sector shake-out: A lot of players have disappeared. Speculative newcomers
   likely gone for quite some time…

 Norwegian FPSO-segment – March-09                                                Norwegian FPSO-segment – Today

1. AKFP                                                              1. AKFP
2. BWO                                                               2. BWO
3. FLNG                                                              3. FLNG
4. FPSO (FPSOcean)                                                   4. FPSO (FPSOcean) - bankrupt
5. FOP                                                               5. FOP
6. MPF – bankrupt                                                    6. MPF – bankrupt
7. NEXUS                                                             7. NEXUS – NEXUS I sold to OSX
8. PetroProd                                                         8. PetroProd - bankrupt
9. PROD                                                              9. PROD
10.SEAP (Sea Production)                                             10.SEAP (Sea Production) – OTC/Rubicon/Ashmore
11.SEVAN                                                             11.SEVAN
12.SFLO (Songa Floating Production,                                  12.SFLO (Songa Floating Production, ex. Nortechs
   ex. Nortechs FPSO)                                                   FPSO) – Bankrupt


                Of the remaining players, equity more or less wiped out in AKFP and the company lacks funding for additional
                 Of the remaining players, equity more or less wiped out in AKFP and the company lacks funding for additional
              projects. FLNG needs significant further funding. PROD will not bid actively before year-end 2010 and SEVAN likely
              projects. FLNG needs significant further funding. PROD will not bid actively before year-end 2010 and SEVAN likely
                                  lacks equity to take on new significant capex commitments for some time
                                   lacks equity to take on new significant capex commitments for some time



                                                                                                                                   17
   Source: Vitae Energy; Arctic Securities
Analysts and investors have moved from “euphoric” to sober. Maybe a bit too
sober…

                                             From                                                                                To


     Trusting companies’ input on capex, time,                                                                Strongly fearing capex overruns – running
     targeted IRR in contracts                                                                                sensitivity analyses, incorporating cost
                                                                                                              overruns and delays in estimates
     Assuming all contracts will be fully utilized,
     including options, and potentially beyond                                                                NPV-analysis of firm contracts alone –
     that                                                                                                     options viewed as potential upside only

     High residual values / redeployment                                                                      Modest residual values
     opportunities
                                                                                                              Assigning no value to growth / system value,
     Including a high system value / value of                                                                 not even for large players
     expected further growth (“2 new contracts
     per year”)                                                                                               Assuming “super-returns” will never
                                                                                                              materialize
     Believing in potential “super-returns” due
     to the strong and appealing deepwater story                                                              Increasing WACCs
     (“after DW drilling comes production”)

     Low WACCs (abundant cheap financing)




                                                                                                                                                        18
Note: Does not necessarily apply to all analysts, but expresses our view on the perceived shift in attitude
Source: Arctic Securities
So, with a ”bad” track-record, but a positive market-outlook, what are the
investors telling us?

         ”The FPSO-sector is                                                ”I’m stuck with
         still un-investable”                                             stocks in the worst
                                                                          segment in all of oil
                                                                               services”




                            “The segment has
                             been a disaster”


                                                                    “We need to be able to believe in
                                                                  stronger IRRs to invest in this sector –
                                                                      how is the industry going to be
                                                                   credible on this when they weren’t
            “How is it possible that                              capable of extracting stronger margins
             everything else in oil                                      in the last super-cycle?”
            services rallies and this
             segment is lagging so
                 significantly?”



      On a more positive note: We are starting to notice increased interest again from investors. Partially as a
      On a more positive note: We are starting to notice increased interest again from investors. Partially as a
      result of the segment having lagged so significantly and partially as a result of the BWO-PROD situation –
      result of the segment having lagged so significantly and partially as a result of the BWO-PROD situation –
                  potentially creating a larger and significantly more interesting entity for investors
                  potentially creating a larger and significantly more interesting entity for investors

                                                                                                                   19
Source: Arctic Securities
Established players have heard the message and started to increasingly
address investors’ concerns
It remains to be seen whether this will result in tangible, profitable projects




                                                                                            ”Target good return
                                                                                              FPSO projects”

                                                                                            ”Will not agree to
                                                                                          undue contractual risk”



              Our take: Credibility needs to be restored (also for industry majors). We are however more
              Our take: Credibility needs to be restored (also for industry majors). We are however more
             positive than we have been for quite some time and believe this is about to happen! Investor
             positive than we have been for quite some time and believe this is about to happen! Investor
                                                  interest is increasing
                                                   interest is increasing

                                                                                                                    20
Source: BW Offshore; Arctic Securities
Agenda/key topics highlighted in this presentation


    Market development: Is the situation in the market picking up?


    How do investors and analysts look at the FPSO-sector? What are their
    evaluation criteria?


    Is the market willing to finance new developments? Is the financing
    situation on the road to recovery?


    What are the main concerns for investors in financing FPSO-projects and
    how can you achieve a win-win deal with project financiers?




                                                                              21
Oil Services/Equity markets have started improving again…
                                              Philadelphia OSX since Sept-00, indexed
300                                                                                                   Global financial
                                                                                                      turmoil & steep
                                                                                                       oil price drop


250



                                                                                                                           Macondo
200




150




100


                                                                                                                Markets bottom
                                                                                                                 out and start
 50                                                                                                               recovering




   0
  Sep-00             Sep-01          Sep-02   Sep-03    Sep-04   Sep-05    Sep-06   Sep-07   Sep-08      Sep-09          Sep-10

            Improving equity markets indicated increased risk appetite again. However; At this stage of the
             Improving equity markets indicated increased risk appetite again. However; At this stage of the
         recovery, it’s our perception that investors are looking more for rebound opportunities in established
         recovery, it’s our perception that investors are looking more for rebound opportunities in established
                names (less risky), rather than being willing to venture into financing new developments
                names (less risky), rather than being willing to venture into financing new developments

                                                                                                                                     22
Source: Factset; Arctic Securities
Debt markets are also improving
                                            Low default rates and high liquidity                           Credit crunch, increased                  Strong              PIIGS
                                                   secured record low spreads                              volatility and low liquidity             recovery




                            250                                                                                                                                                  1400



                                                                                                                                                                                 1200
                            200

                                                                                                                                                                                 1000




                                                                                                                                                                                        HY Spreads (basis points)
IG Spreads (basis points)




                            150
                                                                                                                                                                                 800



                                                                                                                                                                                 600
                            100


                                                                                                                                                                                 400

                             50
                                                                                                                                                                                 200



                               0                                                                                                                                                 0
                                            aug. 05         feb. 06          jul. 06   jan. 07   jul. 07   des. 07   jun. 08   nov. 08    mai. 09   okt. 09    apr. 10    sep. 10

                                                                                           High-Yield (RHS)      Investment Grade (LHS)

                                                                                                                                                                                       23
                            Source: Bloomberg; Arctic Securities Credit Research
US High-Yield issue volumes YTD already above full-year 2009-level and
significant increase from the low level seen in 2008

                                                                     US High-Yield
                                                                Volume issued (in USDbn)

                                                                                                                                 180

                                                                                                                                 160

                                                                                                                                 140

                                                                                                                                 120




                                                                                                                                       USDbn
                                                                                                                                 100

                                                                                                                                 80

                                                                                                                                 60
                                                                                                                                 40

                                                                                                                                 20

                                                                                                                                 0
  2005            2006            2007           2008   2009   YTD           1H 2005 1H 2006 1H 2007   1H 2008 1H 2009 1H 2010
                                                               2010




     Companies issued about USD 120 billion of junk bonds in the first half of the year, up from
      USD 63 billion over the same period in 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.




                                                                                                                                       24
Source: Bloomberg; Arctic Securities Credit Research
Risk aversion is decreasing / price of ”insurance” coming down

90                                                                                                                                                   1400
              VIX reflects a market-estimate
              of future volatility (“fear
80            index”), based on the weighted
              average of the implied                                                                                                                 1200
              volatilities for a wide range of
70            strikes

                                                                                                                                                     1000
60


50                                                                                                                                                   800


40                                                                                                                                                   600

30
                                                                                                                                                     400
20

                                                                                                                                                     200
10


 0                                                                                                                                                   0
       aug. 05            feb. 06            jul. 06        jan. 07   jul. 07    des. 07      jun. 08   nov. 08   mai. 09   okt. 09   apr. 10   sep. 10


                                                                           High-Yield (RHS)      VIX (LHS)




                                                                                                                                                    25
     Source: Bloomberg; Arctic Securities Credit Research
At USD 70/bbl, fundamentals still look strong. Oil companies increase E&P-
                                   spending again  Should ease financing-burden somewhat

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   E&P spending 1998-2010e per
                                              E&P spending 1998-2010e (top 23 companies)                                                                                                                                       barrel produced, split by company type
                      200,000                                                                                            30                                                                          14,000


                      175,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                     12,000
                                                                                                                         25




                                                                                                                                                               E&P capex per barrel produced (USD)
                                                                                                                              Aggregated production (mboepd)
                      150,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                     10,000
E&P spending (USDm)




                                                                                                                         20
                      125,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                      8,000
                      100,000                                                                                            15
                                                                                                                                                                                                      6,000
                       75,000
                                                                                                                         10
                                                                                                                                                                                                      4,000
                       50,000

                                                                                                                         5                                                                            2,000
                       25,000


                          -                                                                                              0                                                                              -
                                1998   1999    2000   2001    2002    2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009 2010E                                                                                    1998   1999   2000     2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007     2008    2009   2010E
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Average supermajors     Average majors (ex STL)   Average Independents     STL      Petrobras
                                         Supermajors         Majors     Independents       Total production same co's




                                          Strong rebound in E&P-spending in 2010 (provided oil co’s use budgets)
                                          First indications for 2011 point to +5-10% further increase from 2010-level



                                                              A sharp decline in oil price (down another 10-15 USD/bbl) likely required
                                                               A sharp decline in oil price (down another 10-15 USD/bbl) likely required
                                                       to “de-rail” the current upswing. Our oil analysts do not believe this is a likely scenario
                                                       to “de-rail” the current upswing. Our oil analysts do not believe this is a likely scenario




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       26
                                   Source: Companies; Arctic Securities
Is the (equity) market willing to fund new developments?
                             Established players with track-record and firm contracts/existing operations can still raise
        Top tier             equity funding at acceptable terms. SBM e.g. successfully raised EUR 181m Nov-09 through a
     players (SBM,           book building process (price set at/near closing price for the day). MODEC recently raised
     MODEC, BWO,             more equity, but directed at main shareholders
         PROD)               Increasing equity requirements pose challenges (for all players)
                             BWO able to raise debt-funding for PROD-deal at decent terms



                             More challenging. Few players can raise equity unless at (significant) discount
                             Needs to be backed by main owners + likely commitments from banks on the debt-side
      Mid segment
                             Track-record must be in place, so should a plan for tangible return on capital to investors
                             High-yield market potentially becoming increasingly possible again




                             Impossible?

      Newcomers /            At least extremely challenging. Speculative projects are likely gone for a long time
       speculative           In addition to equity markets reluctance, banks are not willing to commit. Though not FPSO,
         projects
                             Master Marine is a good example: Construction project on track (time and cost), 3Y firm
                             contract in place with ConocoPhillips, still unable to raise remaining bank-funding


         More advanced and structured financing required. Up-front payments/milestones from oil companies
         More advanced and structured financing required. Up-front payments/milestones from oil companies
       likely a way to go. More EPC-contracts. It makes more sense for the oil companies to come up with the
        likely a way to go. More EPC-contracts. It makes more sense for the oil companies to come up with the
                              funding than for the FPSO-companies (lower funding cost)
                               funding than for the FPSO-companies (lower funding cost)

                                                                                                                           27
Source: Arctic Securities
Agenda/key topics highlighted in this presentation


    Market development: Is the situation in the market picking up?


    How do investors and analysts look at the FPSO-sector? What are their
    evaluation criteria?


    Is the market willing to finance new developments? Is the financing
    situation on the road to recovery?


    What are the main concerns for investors in financing FPSO-projects and
    how can you achieve a win-win deal with project financiers?




                                                                              28
What are the main concerns for (equity) investors and how can you achieve a
 win-win situation with financiers?

Main concern: Receive decent return on invested capital

    Both categories of investors: Secure decent yield on invested capital

    Debt side: Avoid downside risk

    Equity side: Focused on upside potential. This relates to 1) valuation/pricing and 2)
    shareholder return policy


Companies need to:

    Define a credible strategy for how investors shall receive a satisfactory ROI

    Vs. debt-investors: Convincing risk mitigation (contract coverage/backlog, strong
    contract-counterparties, guarantees, debt/value etc.)

    Vs. equity-investors: Focus on shareholder (cash) return policy. Investors want to avoid
    “value traps”. Look to Fredriksen. Why is implicit value per DW rig in SDRL USD 1bn+, vs.
    USD ~470m in RIG, USD ~580m in PDE etc.?

    In general, FPSO-sector is likely more debt-friendly than equity-friendly (capped upside)

                                                                                            29
Source: Arctic Securities
Disclaimer
The information and views presented in this presentation are prepared by Arctic Securities ASA (“Arctic”) an investment banking firm domiciled in Norway, under the supervision of The Financial
Supervisory Authority of Norway (Kredittilsynet), and member of The Oslo Stock Exchange. This document has been prepared in accordance with the guidelines from the Norwegian Securities
Dealers Association.

The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is
for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended in this presentation may not be suitable for all investors.
Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting
upon any information or analysis mentioned in this presentation, investors may please note that neither Arctic nor any person connected with Arctic accepts any liability arising from the use of
this information and views mentioned in this document.

The distribution of this presentation and the offering, subscription, purchase or sale of securities issued by the company in certain jurisdictions is restricted by law, including but without
limitation to the United States. Persons into whose possession this presentation may come are required to comply with all applicable laws and regulations in force in any jurisdiction in or from
which it invests or receives or possesses this presentation and must obtain any consent, approval or permission required under the laws and regulations in force in such jurisdiction, and the
company shall not have any responsibility for these obligations.

This presentation does not constitute or form any part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities; nor shall it or any part of it form the
basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever.

Arctic may have holdings in the companies described herein as a result of market making operations and/or underlying shares as a result of derivatives trading. Arctic may buy or sell such shares
both for own account as a principal agent and as an agent. Please see our website www.arcticsec.no for further disclaimers and disclosures.

The report is confidential and may not be reproduced, redistributed or republished by any recipient for any purpose or to any person. If you are not a client of Arctic, you are not entitled to this
research report.

This presentation is subject to Norwegian law, and any dispute arising in respect of this presentation is subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Norwegian courts with Oslo city court as exclusive
venue.

Distribution in the United States
Research reports are prepared by Arctic for information purposes only. Arctic and its employees are not subject to FINRA's research analyst conflict rules. Arctic research reports are intended for
distribution in the United States solely to "major U.S. institutional investors" as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the United States Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Each major U.S.
institutional investor that receives a copy of an Arctic research report by its acceptance thereof represents and agrees that it shall not distribute or provide copies to any other person. Reports
are prepared by Arctic and distributed to major U.S. institutional investors under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). Any U.S. person receiving these research reports that desires to effect transactions in any
securities discussed within the report should call or write Arctic. Transactions by U.S. persons in securities discussed within the report may be required to be effected through a U.S.-registered
broker-dealer with whom Arctic has a contractual relationship.

Any securities referred to in this material may not have been registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and, if not, may not be offered or sold absent an exemption
therefrom. Recipients are required to comply with any legal or contractual restrictions on their purchase, holding, sale, exercise of rights or performance of obligations under any instrument or
otherwise applicable to any transaction.

This presentation has been prepared and issued for distribution to market professionals and institutional investor clients only. Other recipients should seek independent investment advice prior to
making any investment decision based on this report. This presentation does not provide individually tailored investment advice or offer tax, regulatory, accounting or legal advice. Prior to
entering into any proposed transaction, recipients should determine, in consultation with their own investment, legal, tax, regulatory and accounting advisors, the economic risks and merits, as
well as the legal, tax, regulatory and accounting characteristics and consequences, of the transaction. You should consider this material as only a single factor in making an investment decision.
Financial statements included in the report, if any, may have been prepared in accordance with non-U.S. accounting standards that may not be comparable to the financial statements of United
States companies. It may be difficult to compel a non-U.S. company and its affiliates to subject themselves to U.S. laws or the jurisdiction of U.S. courts.




                                                                                                                                                                                                               30

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FPSO equity perspectives

  • 1. FPSO: Perspectives from the equity market September 2010 Erik Tønne erik.tonne@arcticsec.no +47 21 01 32 26 +47 48 40 32 26
  • 2. Agenda/key topics highlighted in this presentation Market development: Is the situation in the market picking up? How do investors and analysts look at the FPSO-sector? What are their evaluation criteria? Is the market willing to finance new developments? Is the financing situation on the road to recovery? What are the main concerns for investors in financing FPSO-projects and how can you achieve a win-win deal with project financiers? 2
  • 3. Underlying market development: Growth has been good and steady, and will likely continue to be so FPS (installed base) 280 260 SPARs CAGR, number of 240 units 1999-2009 222 225 220 TLPs 214 16 18 15 200 Production Semi’s +9% 190 22 22 22 18 0 176 14 FPSOs 166 13 20 40 41 16 0 149 12 18 40 14 0 137 9 18 127 6 15 40 112 117 3 13 37 12 0 36 2 11 3 14 11 36 10 0 93 35 80 2 34 8 32 33 7 1 80 25 65 137 144 144 57 1 30 60 0 50 0 6 26 116 34 43 0 4 0 5 22 100 108 2 37 0 21 83 89 40 31 0 0 18 76 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 10 3 16 3 67 70 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 1 13 1 1 1 1 10 2 11 2 12 46 53 36 1 0 2 0 5 1 6 1 7 1 9 3 4 4 12 6 13 6 13 7 13 19 21 22 24 28 31 0 1 2 4 5 6 6 6 8 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CAGR of 9% last 10 years Underlying rationale for floating production solutions is strong – deeper, further from shore, more marginal fields etc. FPSOs are cost-efficient and versatile solutions (for the oil companies at least) FPSOs continue to dominate as the most widely used floating production solution We expect floating production to continue to see We expect floating production to continue to see healthy / strong growth rates for the foreseeable future healthy / strong growth rates for the foreseeable future 3 Source: IMA; Arctic Securities
  • 4. Recent market development: A strong upswing in FPSO contract-awards… 6 Projects awarded H2/09 19 Projects awarded so far in 2010: Order intake, new Floating Production Units (FPUs) ordered 1. Aseng to SBM 2. Papa Terra to BWO/Quip 1. Kitan to Bluewater 18 3. Chim Sao to EOC (redeployment) 4. TGT to Bumi Armada 2. Guara to MODEC 16 5. Aquila to Saipem 3. OSX-1 to OSX (old Nexus) 16 6. Baleia Azul to SBM 4. Goliath EPC-contract to (redeployment) Hyundai 5. Athena LoI to BWO 14 6. Huntington LoI to SEVAN (redeployment) 12 7. Tupi Nordeste to SBM- 12 consortium 11 11 11 11 11 8. Sidon/Tiro to Teekay Nr of FPU orders 10 10 9. TSB to BWO 10. Aruana to Teekay 10 9 9 9 (redeployment) 8 8 8 11. Pagerungan Utara to BLT (redeployment) 8 7 7 7 12.-19. Eight pre-salt FPSO- hulls (LoI to Engevix/GVA/ 6 6 6 Cosco) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 Jun-Sep 97 Oct 97 - Feb 98 Dec 99 - Mar 00 Dec 04 - Mar 05 Dec 06 - Mar 07 Dec 07 - Mar 08 Aug - Dec 08 Nov 98 - Feb 99 Apr - Sep 00 Feb - Jun 01 Feb - Jun 03 Aug 09 - Dec 09 Jan 10 - Jun 10 Jan - Apr 09 Mar - Jun 98 Jul - Oct 98 Mar - Jul 99 Jul - Oct 01 Apr - Jul 02 Apr - Jul 04 Apr - Jul 05 Apr - Jul 07 Apr - Jul 08 Apr - Jul 09 Jul - Aug 10 Aug - Nov 99 Oct 00 - Jan 01 Nov 01 - Mar 02 Aug 02 - Jan 03 Jul - Oct 03 Nov 03 - Mar 04 Aug - Nov 04 Aug - Oct 05 Apr - Jul 06 Nov 05 - Mar 06 Aug - Nov 06 Aug - Nov 07 Even if excluding the eight pre-salt hulls for Petrobras, we are at 11 contracts YTD, representing a decent Even if excluding the eight pre-salt hulls for Petrobras, we are at 11 contracts YTD, representing a decent level. More to come with e.g. CLOV, OSX-2 and Frøy so far not announced level. More to come with e.g. CLOV, OSX-2 and Frøy so far not announced 4 Source: IMA; Arctic Securities
  • 5. …Resulting in the order backlog (nr. of units under construction) at yards turning again Floating Production Systems on order/under construction, Quarterly since Q3/96 80 If excluding the 8 pre-salt hulls, order backlog would have been at 41 units, still 70 67 confirming the turn (though 65 more modestly) 60 60 60 57 56 49 49 50 46 46 43 41 41 40 37 36 37 37 38 39 38 37 37 37 39 40 35 Average = 39 33 34 34 35 34 31 32 30 30 27 23 21 21 22 20 17 10 0 Q3/96 Q1/97 Q2/97 Q3/97 Q1/98 Q3/98 Q4/98 Q1/99 Q3/99 Q4/99 Q2/00 Q3/00 Q1/01 Q3/01 Q4/01 Q2/02 Q3/02 Q1/03 Q2/03 Q4/03 Q1/04 Q3/04 Q4/04 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 Q1/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/08 Q3/08 Q4/08 Q1/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q3/10 During Q1/10, order backlog increased again for the first time in eight quarters, following a steady drop We expect order backlog to come up further: Demand is pent-up, and backlog should continue to build as FIDs (Final Investment Decisions) gain momentum 5 Note: Excludes storage-only units, MOPUs and LNG RVs (shuttle/regas vessels) Source: IMA; Arctic Securities
  • 6. Demand-side remains strong! In spite of many awards since Aug-09, number of projects in the Bid/final design phase remains steady Implying oil companies continue to move on projects, gradually progressing them to FID and contract-award Number of FPSO-projects in the bid/ final design phase (see next two slides for details) Number of projects in the Bid/Final Design phase describes projects that are close to FID and contract- Nr of units award 35 33 33 In spite of 25 awards since Aug-09, this number 32 remains fairly steady 31 30 This implies the number of projects progressing from “Planning” to “Bid/Final design” remains high; i.e. 25 25 demand-side remains strong We also believe it’s positive that this number 20 remained fairly steady through the financial turmoil, demonstrating oil companies continued to mature 15 projects In short, we believe the demand-side is pent-up, and 10 that conditions are now increasingly in place for more contract awards again 5 The oil price is steady (enabling planning) on back of healthy demand 0 Input-costs (steel, yard-capacity etc) have come Oct-08 Dec-08 Sep-09 Nov-09 Current down Access to financing for smaller E&Ps and FPSO- Of which operators has improved 1 1 1 1 2 FLNG units 6 Source: IMA; Press; Arctic Securities
  • 7. Industry majors are increasingly positive – both amongst oil companies and major contractors We’re noticing more positive signals from most (all) of the companies, We’re noticing more positive signals from most (all) of the companies, especially within subsea, field development and floating production especially within subsea, field development and floating production 7 Source: Technip (Mar/Apr-10); Arctic Securities
  • 8. Industry survey: Industry-players are more optimistic, reflecting higher tendering-levels and improved market-conditions Industry sees on average 12 contracts in 2010 and 15 contracts in 2011 Industry-players significantly more On average, the players expect a further optimistic compared to last year’s survey increase in number of awards during 2011 30 30 “How many FPSO-lease contracts do you expect will 25 “How many FPSO-lease contracts do you expect 25 be awarded across the industry by year-end?” 25 will be awarded across the industry next year?” 23 20 2010-results 20 2010-results 2009-results 2009-results 16 15 15 15 12 10 10 11 10 10 7 7 5 5 5 5 0 0 Low Average High Low Average High Competitive pressure reduced. Some players even Major input costs have dropped further since last year. comment being in single-source discussions for projects Companies’ answers for 2010 vary significantly 30 0 How many bidders are there on average -1 25 -1 involved in projects you are tendering for? -2 20 2010-results -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 2009-results -4 15 -5 2010-results -6 10 8 -7 2009-results 6 5 -7 5 4 -8 3 1 How have input prices developed over the past -9 12 months? (%-change) 0 - 10 Low Average High Yard costs Major topside Other costs equipment costs 8 Note: Survey conducted in Q2/09 and Q2/10 respectively. Participants: MODEC, PROD, Maersk, FOP, SEVAN, BWO (10 only), SBM (09 only) Source: Companies; Arctic Securities
  • 9. High-end of the lease segment consolidates with BWO-PROD combining. Competitive pressure should be further reduced, boding well for returns Company Number of lease FPSOs in operation or under construction 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 SBM MODEC Prosafe Production BW Offshore Combining to Limited one entity financial Bluewater bidding capacity Maersk Mainly N.Sea Petrojarl (Teekay) Sevan FPSO Financial Saipem capacity? Bumi Armada Fred. Olsen Production Likely to take Rubicon one more project only? Sea Production Tanker Pacific (TPOT) Single unit owners Contracted FPSOs in operation Contracted FPSOs in operation (operations only) Contracted units under construction/conversion Construction on speculation Idle To conclude, we believe it’s fair to say the market is picking up and that bargaining position for To conclude, we believe it’s fair to say the market is picking up and that bargaining position for the remaining players has improved and continues to do so! the remaining players has improved and continues to do so! 9 Note: Does not include turnkey FPSOs, i.e. only includes FPSOs owned and operated by the FPSO-companies Source: Companies; IMA; Arctic Securities
  • 10. Agenda/key topics highlighted in this presentation Market development: Is the situation in the market picking up? How do investors and analysts look at the FPSO-sector? What are their evaluation criteria? Is the market willing to finance new developments? Is the financing situation on the road to recovery? What are the main concerns for investors in financing FPSO-projects and how can you achieve a win-win deal with project financiers? 10
  • 11. Few (equity) investors have a detailed understanding of the FPSO-segment Hard to place all in one group. Many are generalists. Investment strategies and exposures vary - across industries, geographies and asset classes Some are oil services “specialists” – even these sometimes have detailed knowledge of the floating production business Available time to dedicate to detailed analysis of selected companies is limited Valuation approaches are usually “simple”: Valuation metrics (multiples), relative to other segments, look at potential for earnings-upgrades/re-valuation. Some do modeling/DCF-analyses/more detailed work History matters… Opinions and momentum can turn rapidly – from loved by everyone to hated by everyone (usually infectious) 11 Source: Arctic Securities
  • 12. The floating production segment has spooked investors – for obvious reasons A string of disappointments… Shares have been a disaster – even in companies perceived to be “solid” and steady-performing businesses BWO listed at NOK 25 May-06, currently at NOK 8.0 PROD listed at NOK 36 Feb-08, currently at NOK 13.0 Add to this; Aker Floating Production, Sevan… - not a joyride for shareholders Leading established players – e.g. SBM – have also disappointed with significant delays to EPC- contracts (rigs, Yme, Deep Panuke), and are trading at historically low P/B-levels Speculative entrants (mainly originated out of Norway) didn’t help the situation Very hard to point to any success-stories. Massive value destruction Nexus, Petroprod, FPSOcean, MPF, Nortechs/Songa Floating Production The financial community helped fuel the hype… “Floating Production is the new deepwater drilling” “If we assume two new contracts won per year at 15% IRR…” …and failed to recognize fundamental aspects of the business No upside through e.g. rate-fluctuations – i.e. rate locked once capex is agreed upon/contract signed A lot went wrong operationally (poor contracts, too low contingencies, supply-chain tightness  A lot went wrong operationally (poor contracts, too low contingencies, supply-chain tightness  delays & overruns etc.), and a lot of investors got burned delays & overruns etc.), and a lot of investors got burned 12 Source: Arctic Securities
  • 13. Norwegian FPSO-peers: By far the worst segment during the recent meltdown… 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Drillers NOR Subsea NOR Supply NOR FPSO NOR Seismic NOR 13 Source: Factset; Arctic Securities
  • 14. …and clearly the laggard since the market started improving again 370 320 270 220 170 120 70 Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Drillers NOR Subsea NOR Supply NOR FPSO NOR Seismic NOR Hard to get investors’ enthusiasm up when the segment Hard to get investors’ enthusiasm up when the segment has underperformed all other oil services segments has underperformed all other oil services segments 14 Source: Factset; Arctic Securities
  • 15. Adjusting for worst performers (AKFP & SEVAN), some of the FPSO-peers have performed more in line with other oil services segments since the market started coming up again 370 BWO up strongly lately on back of 350 APL-sale 330 310 290 270 250 230 FOP in line with 210 drillers and supply 190 170 150 130 PROD, SBM and MODEC under- 110 performing 90 70 50 Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Drillers NOR Subsea NOR Supply NOR Seismic NOR BWO PROD FOP SBMO MODEC A key question investors are asking themselves is: “Why should II invest in this, when there are so A key question investors are asking themselves is: “Why should invest in this, when there are so many other alternatives” many other alternatives” 15 Source: Factset; Arctic Securities
  • 16. Creating value for shareholders…? Shareholders care about this… it’s more or less the only thing they care about! Shareholders care about this… it’s more or less the only thing they care about! 16 Source: Vitae Energy; Arctic Securities
  • 17. Sector shake-out: A lot of players have disappeared. Speculative newcomers likely gone for quite some time… Norwegian FPSO-segment – March-09 Norwegian FPSO-segment – Today 1. AKFP 1. AKFP 2. BWO 2. BWO 3. FLNG 3. FLNG 4. FPSO (FPSOcean) 4. FPSO (FPSOcean) - bankrupt 5. FOP 5. FOP 6. MPF – bankrupt 6. MPF – bankrupt 7. NEXUS 7. NEXUS – NEXUS I sold to OSX 8. PetroProd 8. PetroProd - bankrupt 9. PROD 9. PROD 10.SEAP (Sea Production) 10.SEAP (Sea Production) – OTC/Rubicon/Ashmore 11.SEVAN 11.SEVAN 12.SFLO (Songa Floating Production, 12.SFLO (Songa Floating Production, ex. Nortechs ex. Nortechs FPSO) FPSO) – Bankrupt Of the remaining players, equity more or less wiped out in AKFP and the company lacks funding for additional Of the remaining players, equity more or less wiped out in AKFP and the company lacks funding for additional projects. FLNG needs significant further funding. PROD will not bid actively before year-end 2010 and SEVAN likely projects. FLNG needs significant further funding. PROD will not bid actively before year-end 2010 and SEVAN likely lacks equity to take on new significant capex commitments for some time lacks equity to take on new significant capex commitments for some time 17 Source: Vitae Energy; Arctic Securities
  • 18. Analysts and investors have moved from “euphoric” to sober. Maybe a bit too sober… From To Trusting companies’ input on capex, time, Strongly fearing capex overruns – running targeted IRR in contracts sensitivity analyses, incorporating cost overruns and delays in estimates Assuming all contracts will be fully utilized, including options, and potentially beyond NPV-analysis of firm contracts alone – that options viewed as potential upside only High residual values / redeployment Modest residual values opportunities Assigning no value to growth / system value, Including a high system value / value of not even for large players expected further growth (“2 new contracts per year”) Assuming “super-returns” will never materialize Believing in potential “super-returns” due to the strong and appealing deepwater story Increasing WACCs (“after DW drilling comes production”) Low WACCs (abundant cheap financing) 18 Note: Does not necessarily apply to all analysts, but expresses our view on the perceived shift in attitude Source: Arctic Securities
  • 19. So, with a ”bad” track-record, but a positive market-outlook, what are the investors telling us? ”The FPSO-sector is ”I’m stuck with still un-investable” stocks in the worst segment in all of oil services” “The segment has been a disaster” “We need to be able to believe in stronger IRRs to invest in this sector – how is the industry going to be credible on this when they weren’t “How is it possible that capable of extracting stronger margins everything else in oil in the last super-cycle?” services rallies and this segment is lagging so significantly?” On a more positive note: We are starting to notice increased interest again from investors. Partially as a On a more positive note: We are starting to notice increased interest again from investors. Partially as a result of the segment having lagged so significantly and partially as a result of the BWO-PROD situation – result of the segment having lagged so significantly and partially as a result of the BWO-PROD situation – potentially creating a larger and significantly more interesting entity for investors potentially creating a larger and significantly more interesting entity for investors 19 Source: Arctic Securities
  • 20. Established players have heard the message and started to increasingly address investors’ concerns It remains to be seen whether this will result in tangible, profitable projects ”Target good return FPSO projects” ”Will not agree to undue contractual risk” Our take: Credibility needs to be restored (also for industry majors). We are however more Our take: Credibility needs to be restored (also for industry majors). We are however more positive than we have been for quite some time and believe this is about to happen! Investor positive than we have been for quite some time and believe this is about to happen! Investor interest is increasing interest is increasing 20 Source: BW Offshore; Arctic Securities
  • 21. Agenda/key topics highlighted in this presentation Market development: Is the situation in the market picking up? How do investors and analysts look at the FPSO-sector? What are their evaluation criteria? Is the market willing to finance new developments? Is the financing situation on the road to recovery? What are the main concerns for investors in financing FPSO-projects and how can you achieve a win-win deal with project financiers? 21
  • 22. Oil Services/Equity markets have started improving again… Philadelphia OSX since Sept-00, indexed 300 Global financial turmoil & steep oil price drop 250 Macondo 200 150 100 Markets bottom out and start 50 recovering 0 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Improving equity markets indicated increased risk appetite again. However; At this stage of the Improving equity markets indicated increased risk appetite again. However; At this stage of the recovery, it’s our perception that investors are looking more for rebound opportunities in established recovery, it’s our perception that investors are looking more for rebound opportunities in established names (less risky), rather than being willing to venture into financing new developments names (less risky), rather than being willing to venture into financing new developments 22 Source: Factset; Arctic Securities
  • 23. Debt markets are also improving Low default rates and high liquidity Credit crunch, increased Strong PIIGS secured record low spreads volatility and low liquidity recovery 250 1400 1200 200 1000 HY Spreads (basis points) IG Spreads (basis points) 150 800 600 100 400 50 200 0 0 aug. 05 feb. 06 jul. 06 jan. 07 jul. 07 des. 07 jun. 08 nov. 08 mai. 09 okt. 09 apr. 10 sep. 10 High-Yield (RHS) Investment Grade (LHS) 23 Source: Bloomberg; Arctic Securities Credit Research
  • 24. US High-Yield issue volumes YTD already above full-year 2009-level and significant increase from the low level seen in 2008 US High-Yield Volume issued (in USDbn) 180 160 140 120 USDbn 100 80 60 40 20 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 YTD 1H 2005 1H 2006 1H 2007 1H 2008 1H 2009 1H 2010 2010 Companies issued about USD 120 billion of junk bonds in the first half of the year, up from USD 63 billion over the same period in 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 24 Source: Bloomberg; Arctic Securities Credit Research
  • 25. Risk aversion is decreasing / price of ”insurance” coming down 90 1400 VIX reflects a market-estimate of future volatility (“fear 80 index”), based on the weighted average of the implied 1200 volatilities for a wide range of 70 strikes 1000 60 50 800 40 600 30 400 20 200 10 0 0 aug. 05 feb. 06 jul. 06 jan. 07 jul. 07 des. 07 jun. 08 nov. 08 mai. 09 okt. 09 apr. 10 sep. 10 High-Yield (RHS) VIX (LHS) 25 Source: Bloomberg; Arctic Securities Credit Research
  • 26. At USD 70/bbl, fundamentals still look strong. Oil companies increase E&P- spending again  Should ease financing-burden somewhat E&P spending 1998-2010e per E&P spending 1998-2010e (top 23 companies) barrel produced, split by company type 200,000 30 14,000 175,000 12,000 25 E&P capex per barrel produced (USD) Aggregated production (mboepd) 150,000 10,000 E&P spending (USDm) 20 125,000 8,000 100,000 15 6,000 75,000 10 4,000 50,000 5 2,000 25,000 - 0 - 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E Average supermajors Average majors (ex STL) Average Independents STL Petrobras Supermajors Majors Independents Total production same co's Strong rebound in E&P-spending in 2010 (provided oil co’s use budgets) First indications for 2011 point to +5-10% further increase from 2010-level A sharp decline in oil price (down another 10-15 USD/bbl) likely required A sharp decline in oil price (down another 10-15 USD/bbl) likely required to “de-rail” the current upswing. Our oil analysts do not believe this is a likely scenario to “de-rail” the current upswing. Our oil analysts do not believe this is a likely scenario 26 Source: Companies; Arctic Securities
  • 27. Is the (equity) market willing to fund new developments? Established players with track-record and firm contracts/existing operations can still raise Top tier equity funding at acceptable terms. SBM e.g. successfully raised EUR 181m Nov-09 through a players (SBM, book building process (price set at/near closing price for the day). MODEC recently raised MODEC, BWO, more equity, but directed at main shareholders PROD) Increasing equity requirements pose challenges (for all players) BWO able to raise debt-funding for PROD-deal at decent terms More challenging. Few players can raise equity unless at (significant) discount Needs to be backed by main owners + likely commitments from banks on the debt-side Mid segment Track-record must be in place, so should a plan for tangible return on capital to investors High-yield market potentially becoming increasingly possible again Impossible? Newcomers / At least extremely challenging. Speculative projects are likely gone for a long time speculative In addition to equity markets reluctance, banks are not willing to commit. Though not FPSO, projects Master Marine is a good example: Construction project on track (time and cost), 3Y firm contract in place with ConocoPhillips, still unable to raise remaining bank-funding More advanced and structured financing required. Up-front payments/milestones from oil companies More advanced and structured financing required. Up-front payments/milestones from oil companies likely a way to go. More EPC-contracts. It makes more sense for the oil companies to come up with the likely a way to go. More EPC-contracts. It makes more sense for the oil companies to come up with the funding than for the FPSO-companies (lower funding cost) funding than for the FPSO-companies (lower funding cost) 27 Source: Arctic Securities
  • 28. Agenda/key topics highlighted in this presentation Market development: Is the situation in the market picking up? How do investors and analysts look at the FPSO-sector? What are their evaluation criteria? Is the market willing to finance new developments? Is the financing situation on the road to recovery? What are the main concerns for investors in financing FPSO-projects and how can you achieve a win-win deal with project financiers? 28
  • 29. What are the main concerns for (equity) investors and how can you achieve a win-win situation with financiers? Main concern: Receive decent return on invested capital Both categories of investors: Secure decent yield on invested capital Debt side: Avoid downside risk Equity side: Focused on upside potential. This relates to 1) valuation/pricing and 2) shareholder return policy Companies need to: Define a credible strategy for how investors shall receive a satisfactory ROI Vs. debt-investors: Convincing risk mitigation (contract coverage/backlog, strong contract-counterparties, guarantees, debt/value etc.) Vs. equity-investors: Focus on shareholder (cash) return policy. Investors want to avoid “value traps”. Look to Fredriksen. Why is implicit value per DW rig in SDRL USD 1bn+, vs. USD ~470m in RIG, USD ~580m in PDE etc.? In general, FPSO-sector is likely more debt-friendly than equity-friendly (capped upside) 29 Source: Arctic Securities
  • 30. Disclaimer The information and views presented in this presentation are prepared by Arctic Securities ASA (“Arctic”) an investment banking firm domiciled in Norway, under the supervision of The Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Kredittilsynet), and member of The Oslo Stock Exchange. This document has been prepared in accordance with the guidelines from the Norwegian Securities Dealers Association. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended in this presentation may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. 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