Business Economics of US is studied where its market and growth from past to present and future challenges to the growth is covered such as depression and debt problems.
Business Economics of US is studied where its market and growth from past to present and future challenges to the growth is covered such as depression and debt problems.
A group of a dozen educators got together on August 7, 2012 in Chippewa Falls, WI to develop a plan to shift educational paradigms. This slideshow was prepared by Jim Adams, Barney Slowey, and Tamara Sharp.
The first thing that strikes about education is knowledge gain. Education gives us knowledge of the world around us. People debate over the subject of whether education is the only thing that gives knowledge. Some say, education is the process of gaining information about the surrounding world while knowledge is something very different.
Ο απολογισμός των δράσεων ήταν θετικός.
Τα παιδιά οικοδόμησαν γνώσεις πάνω στα οικολογικά θέματα, ενώ ανέπτυξαν σχετικές δεξιότητες και υιοθέτησαν στάσεις φιλικές προς αυτά.
Οι δράσεις υλοποιήθηκαν χωρίς ιδιαίτερες δυσκολίες, με βάση τον αρχικό, καλά σχεδιασμένο προγραμματισμό.
Το σχολείο απέκτησε επιπλέον εμπειρία στις οικολογικές δράσεις και θα συνεχίσει να συμβάλει στην διαμόρφωση των αυριανών ενεργών και περιβαλλοντικά εγγράμματων πολιτών
Περιγραφή της δράσης/ εκστρατείας
Οι μαθητές του Ε2 του 2ου Πρότυπου Πειραματικού Δημοτικού Σχολείου Ρόδου, πραγματοποίησαν μία εκστρατεία, η οποία περιλάμβανε μια σειρά από δράσεις ευαισθητοποίησης απέναντι στα ζώα. Στα πλαίσια της εκστρατείας «Η Ακαδημία για τα ζώα», οι μαθητές:
• Έστειλαν επίσημη αιτητική επιστολή στην διεύθυνση του Σχολείου, προκειμένου να πάρουν έγκριση για τη διεξαγωγή των δράσεων στα πλαίσια της εκστρατείας.
• Δημιούργησαν ενημερωτικά φυλλάδια σχετικά με την εκστρατεία, τα οποία μοιράστηκαν στο σύνολο των μαθητών του σχολείου.
• Δημιούργησαν λογαριασμό ηλεκτρονικού ταχυδρομείου ειδικά για τις ανάγκες τις εκστρατείας, στον οποίο καλούσαν τους μαθητές των υπολοίπων τάξεων να στείλουν φωτογραφίες με τα δικά τους κατοικίδια ζώα.
• Κατασκεύασαν ετικέτες με το όνομα της εκστρατείας, προκειμένου να φορεθούν κατά τη διάρκεια της ενημέρωσης από τα όλους τους συμμετέχοντες στην εκστρατεία.
• Έφτιαξαν αφίσες με ενημερωτικό περιεχόμενο σχετικά με τα οφέλη που προσφέρουν στον άνθρωπο τα κατοικίδια ζώα και το νέο νόμο που ψηφίστηκε το 2014 στην Ελλάδα για τα ζώα.
• Συνέταξαν και μορφοποίησαν ενημερωτικό φυλλάδιο με φιλοζωικό χαρακτήρα , το οποίο και αναπαρήγαγαν με δικά τους έξοδα, προκειμένου να μοιραστεί σε γονείς και μαθητές.
• Έγραψαν και σκηνοθέτησαν μικρού μήκους ταινία, με φιλοζωικό περιεχόμενο ευαισθητοποίησης, την οποία και προέβαλαν στη χριστουγεννιάτικη γιορτή του σχολείου μας.
• Συγκέντρωσαν το χρηματικό ποσό των 270 ευρώ, με το οποίο αγόρασαν 360 κιλά ζωοτροφή (για σκύλους), την οποία και μοίρασαν εξίσου στους 3 μεγαλύτερους φιλοζωικούς μη κερδοσκοπικούς συλλόγους του νησιού σ
A group of a dozen educators got together on August 7, 2012 in Chippewa Falls, WI to develop a plan to shift educational paradigms. This slideshow was prepared by Jim Adams, Barney Slowey, and Tamara Sharp.
The first thing that strikes about education is knowledge gain. Education gives us knowledge of the world around us. People debate over the subject of whether education is the only thing that gives knowledge. Some say, education is the process of gaining information about the surrounding world while knowledge is something very different.
Ο απολογισμός των δράσεων ήταν θετικός.
Τα παιδιά οικοδόμησαν γνώσεις πάνω στα οικολογικά θέματα, ενώ ανέπτυξαν σχετικές δεξιότητες και υιοθέτησαν στάσεις φιλικές προς αυτά.
Οι δράσεις υλοποιήθηκαν χωρίς ιδιαίτερες δυσκολίες, με βάση τον αρχικό, καλά σχεδιασμένο προγραμματισμό.
Το σχολείο απέκτησε επιπλέον εμπειρία στις οικολογικές δράσεις και θα συνεχίσει να συμβάλει στην διαμόρφωση των αυριανών ενεργών και περιβαλλοντικά εγγράμματων πολιτών
Περιγραφή της δράσης/ εκστρατείας
Οι μαθητές του Ε2 του 2ου Πρότυπου Πειραματικού Δημοτικού Σχολείου Ρόδου, πραγματοποίησαν μία εκστρατεία, η οποία περιλάμβανε μια σειρά από δράσεις ευαισθητοποίησης απέναντι στα ζώα. Στα πλαίσια της εκστρατείας «Η Ακαδημία για τα ζώα», οι μαθητές:
• Έστειλαν επίσημη αιτητική επιστολή στην διεύθυνση του Σχολείου, προκειμένου να πάρουν έγκριση για τη διεξαγωγή των δράσεων στα πλαίσια της εκστρατείας.
• Δημιούργησαν ενημερωτικά φυλλάδια σχετικά με την εκστρατεία, τα οποία μοιράστηκαν στο σύνολο των μαθητών του σχολείου.
• Δημιούργησαν λογαριασμό ηλεκτρονικού ταχυδρομείου ειδικά για τις ανάγκες τις εκστρατείας, στον οποίο καλούσαν τους μαθητές των υπολοίπων τάξεων να στείλουν φωτογραφίες με τα δικά τους κατοικίδια ζώα.
• Κατασκεύασαν ετικέτες με το όνομα της εκστρατείας, προκειμένου να φορεθούν κατά τη διάρκεια της ενημέρωσης από τα όλους τους συμμετέχοντες στην εκστρατεία.
• Έφτιαξαν αφίσες με ενημερωτικό περιεχόμενο σχετικά με τα οφέλη που προσφέρουν στον άνθρωπο τα κατοικίδια ζώα και το νέο νόμο που ψηφίστηκε το 2014 στην Ελλάδα για τα ζώα.
• Συνέταξαν και μορφοποίησαν ενημερωτικό φυλλάδιο με φιλοζωικό χαρακτήρα , το οποίο και αναπαρήγαγαν με δικά τους έξοδα, προκειμένου να μοιραστεί σε γονείς και μαθητές.
• Έγραψαν και σκηνοθέτησαν μικρού μήκους ταινία, με φιλοζωικό περιεχόμενο ευαισθητοποίησης, την οποία και προέβαλαν στη χριστουγεννιάτικη γιορτή του σχολείου μας.
• Συγκέντρωσαν το χρηματικό ποσό των 270 ευρώ, με το οποίο αγόρασαν 360 κιλά ζωοτροφή (για σκύλους), την οποία και μοίρασαν εξίσου στους 3 μεγαλύτερους φιλοζωικούς μη κερδοσκοπικούς συλλόγους του νησιού σ
The Rise and Fall of American Productivity - Robert J GordonLora Cecere
Keynote Address - The Rise and Fall of American Productivity. What Does This Mean for Future Industrial Revolutions?
Robert J. Gordon has written prolifically about the problems facing contemporary economic growth, casting a sobering doubt on the ability of our current innovations (what he calls the "third industrial revolution," including all our fancy gadgets) to power the economy the way previous waves of invention did. What lessons can we learn from the prior industrial revolutions to power new innovation?
Robert J. Gordon, Stanley G. Harris Professor in the Social Sciences, and Professor of Economics at Northwestern University at the 2017 Supply Chain Insights Global Summit
David Brown - Shifing values and preferencesOECDregions
This presentation was featured at the 11th OECD Rural Development Conference held on 9-12 April 2018 in Edinburgh, Scotland (UK).
More information: www.oecd.org/rural/rural-development-conference/
A timeline of Toffler's 3 waves, and innovations in technology, education, the workplace, social and cultural situations, and the economy from 1900-present time.
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPDOT TECH
You can't sell your pi coins in the pi network app. because it is not listed yet on any exchange.
The only way you can sell is by trading your pi coins with an investor (a person looking forward to hold massive amounts of pi coins before mainnet launch) .
You don't need to meet the investor directly all the trades are done with a pi vendor/merchant (a person that buys the pi coins from miners and resell it to investors)
I Will leave The telegram contact of my personal pi vendor, if you are finding a legitimate one.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network
#pi coins
#money
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptx
Is U. S. Economic Growth Over? Lessons from the Long 20th Century, Robert Gordon
1. Is U. S. Economic Growth Over? Lessons from the Long 20th Century
Robert J. Gordon, NBER, CEPR, OFCE
Lecture at Sciences-Po,
13 September 2011
2. Background: the Startling Round Trip
•Economists have always assumed that economic growth is a steady process and their theories of growth are built on that foundation
•Economic historians don’t buy that, because they know that there was no growth for most of economic history until about 200 years ago.
•After its millenia-long slumber, economic growth woke up in the first industrial revolution which created the steam engine, textile mills, the railroad, and the steam ship.
•The initial awakening was in Britain, the dominant economy of the 19th century, the U.S. caught up and surpassed British per-capita GDP as the 20th century began
3. And Here’s the Title Page of the PPT Where It All Started
=======================================
Is U. S. Economic Growth Over? Lessons from the Long 20th Century
Robert J. Gordon
Northwestern University, NBER, CEPR, OFCE
OFCE/Sciences Po, September 13, 2011
4. 2014 Update of 2011 Slides: Why France Is Better Than the U.S
•Citizens of every other nation among the developed members of the OECD enjoy free health care, no exceptions.
•No city in provincial France has turned into a vacant prairie with no downtown, as has Detroit (Arsenal of Democracy)
•France has not experienced in the past seven years a decline in labor force participation, with equivalent to 7.5 million jobs lost forever. equal society, U. S. the worst
•Start superiority of France in terms of inequality and student achievement discussed
•Anyone in the entire world can walk through passport control at CDG in two seconds. U.S. citizens 10-15 minutes, foreign nationals one to two hours.
5. What is “The Long 20th Century”?
•Commonplace term in European History (Hobsbawm): The long 19th century is from the French Revolution of 1789 to the start of WW I in 1914
•In parallel, the long 20th century for the U.S. is from the end of the Civil War (1870) to now (2010)
–You will hear later about the 700-page book to be submitted next Monday to the Princeton University Press with the title The Rise and Fall of Growth in the American Standard of Living Since 1870.
–For Europe one hears of the “short 20th century” between 1914 and 1991
•Three industrial revolutions (IR) propelled growth. IR #1 (1760-1830), IR #2 (1875-1900), and IR #3 (1985-2010).
–Impact spread over 50, 100 years? Which?
6. The Basic Hypotheses of This Talk
•U. S. economic growth has set the frontier for the developed world since 1890
•The frontier has been pushed forward by IR #1 through 1870 and then the great IR #2 for the whole century 1870-1970
•For economic growth to continue after 2010, IR #3 will have to live up to the precedent of IR #2, but it did not.
•Instead 40 years ago the growth rate of both labor productivity and total factor productivity slowed sharply,
•I’ll provide many examples of the absolute decline in the level of consumer well-being since 1972, and in fact one example of a decline in consumer welfare since 1936!
9. What Joel Already Knows
•This is the fourth debate in the past year between Joel and me about this topic. Every point I’m making in this talk is the same as a year ago, and the same for him.
•There is a fifth debate, which few people know about or remember, including all my colleagues and friends who read the Wall Street Journal every day.
•This article appeared on the front page of the WSJ on June 16 of this year, and what an article!
10. Joel’s Life As a Lifelong Overachiever, But I Couldn’t Match My Father
•The WSJ article is long and deep and it is ultimately fair; the same number of paragraphs (many) is devoted to each of us.
•It tells about Joel’s unbelievable transition from a refugee in Israel at age 2, a Yale PhD at age 28, and long ago by say age 55 clearly was one of the top five economic historians in the world.
•My story is the opposite. I did not achieve anything my family had not already achieved. All four of us earned Ph.D’s in ecoomics. Father, mother, brother from Harvard, and I was the wild rebel who went two subway stops away to MIT.
•I’m an example of regression to the mean. My father was elected as President of the American Economics Association, a goal out of reach for me at age 74 (VP)
11. The Progress of IR #3 Since 1970 Has Been Revolutionary
•1978: My first acoustic coupler and dumb terminal in 1978
•1980: My first long-distance electronic co-authorship
•1983: My first personal computer with its two floppy drives
•1992: The heaven of Wordperfect 6.0
•August 1993: My first e-mail
•1994-95: Never since were e-mail messages so frequent or so long
•Moving from personal anecdotes to aggregate data, American productivity growth was given an injection of elixer that doubled it from the 25 years before 1996 to the years after 1996..
•Joel and Erik think that this record of the past 40 years is just the beginning , and that we are at the “point of inflection” of something much more important
12. Contributions of IR #3 to Business Productivity
•It started before the internet
–1980s: ATM machines and bar-code scanning
–1990s: Replacing paper library catalogs and paper parts catalogs at auto dealers and repair shops
–Wal-Mart and its famous distribution efficiency
•Cell phone and internet were both the marriage of computers and communications
–Cell phone for calls, not data, established by late 1990s
–PCs in offices had T-1 lines, not dial-up, back in mid- 1990s. Broadband arrived in homes 1992-96 and created the e-commerce revolution
13. Let’s Think About How Minor the Progress Was in IR #2 vs. IR #3.
•The introduction of GPS navigation screens on autos compared to the invention of the auto itself.
•The introduction of the cell phone compared to the invention of the phone itself and the telegraph.
•The invention of home-streaming of movies to the invention of the motion picture itself.
•The invention of the ipod to the invention of the phonograph.
•The invention of the microwave oven to the replacement of cooking on the open hearth by the enclosed cast iron stove and later the kitchen range.
•Icemakers in refrigerators compared to the invention of the refrigerator or even the icebox.
•The conversion of card catalogues in libraries to electronic screens with the invention of electric light that made it possible to read books at night.
14. Sources of Slowing U.S. Growth: Headwinds vs. Innovation
•My conclusions have nothing to do with any change of innovation after 1972
•Headwinds are demography, education, inequality, government debt. Total slowdown: 1.8 points from 2.0 to 0.2.
•1.2 headwinds, 0.6 slowing innovation that occurred 40 years ago
15. The Trend in Hours Growth (From 02 Sept on Missing $2 Trillion)
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
Percent
Year
HP Kalman Trends for Total vs Alt NAIRU
16. Second Headwind: Education
•Yesterday’s WSJ p. D1 “More Preschool Children Are Being Diagnosed With Vision Problems”
•Same, p. A2. “Workers’ English Skills Wane”
$1 Trillion Student Debt but 40% of recent graduates are in jobs that do not require a college education
The U. S. is the only developed country where the educational attainment of the 55-64 cohort is the same as 25-34 cohort
•U.S. has dropped from #1 to #16 in college completion as percent of population; same for high-school dropouts
17. Third Headwind: Inequality
•For 1993-2012 the gap between average real income growth of total vs. bottom 99% is
-0.53 percent per year.
•Yesterday’s NYT, p. A23. “Absence of Affordable Housing Squeezes the Middle Class.”
•Yesterday’s WSJ, p. A13. “The Economic Recovery That Left Almost Everyone Behind”
18. Interaction Demographics, Education, Inequality
•Social instability in Fishtown
–Percent of children of women aged 40 living with both biological parents, change from 1960 to 2010
–Fishtown 95% to 35%
•Interaction with education: for a child to live without a father at home is a predictor of more high school drop outs in the future
19. A Startling Measure of Social Decay in America
•Excellent statistics on every aspect of our criminal justice system, e.g, the age of inmates
•The percentage of those aged 30-34 who have been in prison at any time in their lives
•For whites, 4 percent in 1979 and 28 in 2009
•For blacks, 15 percent in 1979 and 60 in 2009
•Many but not all for petty drug offenses
20. Federal Debt/GDP RaiosOops! Graph is Wrong
•The CBO creates the government data on the growth in potential GDP and on the debt/GDP ratio.
•Oops, 28 Feb 2014. Oops again 2 September 2014.
•Estimates debt/GDP ratio for 2024
–CBO in January: 70 percent
–CBO since February: 78 percent
–Me on 2 Sept: 87 percent
21. As Joel Knows, Problems Are About Economic History, Not the Future
22. How Did Innovation in the Past Compare with the Past 40 Years?
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2012
Annual TFP Growth
Average Annual Growth Rate Over Ten Years Prior to Year Shown
10-Year Average Annual Growth in Total Factor Productivity, 1900- 2012
23. Four Pieces of Evidence That the Late 1990s Were Special
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Percent
Figure 5. Annualized Growth Rates of Output per Hour, 1891-2013
2.36
1.38
2.54
1.33
1891-1972
1996-2004
2004-13
1972-1996
Years
24. Growth in Manufacturing Capacity Peaked in the late 1990s
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
Annualized Five-Year Change in Manufacturing Capacity and Capacity per Capita, 1977-2013
Capacity
Capacity / WAP
25. The Most Dynamic Part of Manufacturing Has Disappeared
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
Share of ICT Manufacturing Value-Added in Total Manufacturing Sector, 1972-2013
Share as a Percentage
26. Annual Change of Price Index for Information / Communication Technology
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
27. A Finely Tuned Depiction of the Productivity Growth Trend
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
Percent
Year
YP/HP Kalman Trends for Total vs Alt NAIRU
28. Hours Change Plus Productivity Change Equals Rate of Output Change
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
Percent
Year
YP Kalman Trends for Total vs Alt NAIRU
29. A Closer Look at 1950-2014, A Two-Stage Slowdown
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Percent
Growth Rates of Output, Labor Productivity, and Hours, 1950-2014, Intervals Divided at 1972 and 2004
1950-72
1972-2004
2004-14
Output
Productivity
Hours
Output
Productivity
Hours
Output
Productivity
Hours
30. A Diagnosis of the Slowdown: Different Between 1st and 2nd Vs. Between 2nd and 3rd Periods
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
Percent
Change in Growth Rates of Output, Labor Productivity, and Hours,
1950-2014, Intervals Divided at 1972 and 2004
Change from 1950-72 to 1972-2004
Change from 1972-2004 to 2004-14
Output
Productivity
Output
Productivity
Hours
Hours
31. Summary: Headwinds vs. Innovation
•If future innovations are less important than the last 125 years and especially if they are less important than the last 40 years, all developed nations are affected
–Still room for catching up in emerging markets
•Headwinds in other countries may be less serious
–Better education (Canada, Korea)
–Less inequality (Japan, Korea, France, Scandinavia)
–Less future burden of rising debt/GDP ratio
•Assignment for the rest of this session: Comment on all of the above.