Gold demand reached a record high in the first half of 2016, up 18% from the previous year. Investment demand was also at a record high, 16% higher than the first half of 2009, driven by a surge in gold ETF inflows. However, jewelry demand declined as higher gold prices weighed on consumers, with demand falling 20% in India and 15% in China. Total gold supply increased 10% due to higher recycling rates and additional hedging as gold prices rose.
2. Gold demand reached 2,336t in H1, up 18% YoY
2World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Second Quarter 2016 | August 2016
3. Record H1 investment – 16% higher than H1 2009
3World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Second Quarter 2016 | August 2016
4. Demand for ETFs reached 579t, exceeding H1 2009
4World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Second Quarter 2016 | August 2016
5. Chinese gold ETFs: from US$215mn to over US$1bn
5World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Second Quarter 2016 | August 2016
6. Sovereign yields fall, investible assets shrink
6World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Second Quarter 2016 | August 2016
7. Brexit adds to NIRP challenges for central banks
7World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Second Quarter 2016 | August 2016
Note: Sovereign debt from Australia, Canada, Denmark, Euro area (investment grade), Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the
United States. May not equal 100% due to rounding.
APP: Sovereign debt held by the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, ECB, Bank of England under their respective Asset Purchase Programs (APP)
for monetary policy
Source: Bloomberg, author's calculations, data as of August 9, 2016
Advanced Economy Sovereign Debt
8. Higher demand from smaller-scale investors
8World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Second Quarter 2016 | August 2016
9. Gold up 25%: strongest H1 price gain since 1980
9World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Second Quarter 2016 | August 2016
10. Jewellery consumers have faced a tough 2016 so far
10World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Second Quarter 2016 | August 2016
11. Indian jewellery demand continues to struggle
11World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Second Quarter 2016 | August 2016
12. China’s jewellery market evolves to reflect changing
consumer tastes
12World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Second Quarter 2016 | August 2016
13. Total supply up 10% YoY, led by higher recycling
13World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Second Quarter 2016 | August 2016
14. Further hedging in response to higher gold prices
14World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Second Quarter 2016 | August 2016
15. Recycled gold +23% YoY as price climbs further
15World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Second Quarter 2016 | August 2016
16. Q2 2016 Summary
16
• H1 2016 demand of 2,335t was the second highest H1 on record.
• Gold up 25% in US$: strongest H1 price gain since 1980.
• ETFs inflows of 579t exceeded the previous high of 523t in H1 2009.
• Jewellery demand fell 14% year-on-year, as the higher price weighed on consumers:
- India’s demand declined by 20%, impacted by the gold price, weaker rural incomes and government regulation
- China’s jewellery demand was down 15% to 144t
• H1 central bank demand was 185t, down 23% on H1 2015
• Bar and coin demand grew marginally – led by positive sentiment in Western markets:
- US demand in H1 was 75% higher than in H1 2015
- Europe’s bar and coin demand was broadly stable at 44.7t
- China and India’s weaker in Q2, Japan the star performer among smaller Asian markets
• Total supply up 10%, driven by increased recycling and further hedging.
World Gold Council | Gold Demand Trends Second Quarter 2016 | August 2016