Global iron ore: new import areas and Chinese slowdown? – Anton Löf, Raw Materials Group; Senior Iron Ore Consultant

1. Global iron ore: new import areas and the
Chinese slowdown?
Mining on top: Stockholm
Anton Löf
Senior Iron Ore Analyst COO, Raw Materials Group
anton.lof@rmg.se

2. Outline
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•
•
•
•
•
•
The Iron ore industry
China
New import areas?
China today
New export areas?
Iron ore prices
Summary

3. Iron ore mines 2012
Source: Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2013.

4. Global iron ore production
2 000
1 800
1 600
1 400
Australia
1 200
China
1 000
India
Brazil
800
Russian Federation
600
Other
400
200
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: UNCTAD, Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2013.

5. Iron ore production by country 2012
Source: Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2013.

6. Crude steel production
Total world crude steel production
1 800 000
1 600 000
1 400 000
kt
1 200 000
1 000 000
800 000
600 000
400 000
200 000
0

7. Crude steel production
1 800 000
1 600 000
1 400 000
1 200 000
1 000 000
800 000
600 000
400 000
200 000
0
China
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
Rest of the world
1993
kt
Chinese influence on total crude steel production

8. Global iron ore imports
1 200
1 000
Other
800
EU27
Japan
600
Korea, Republic of
China, Taiwan Province of
400
China
200
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: UNCTAD, Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2013.

9. Total iron ore imports
Source: Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2013.

10. Chinese population
1 600 000
80.0
1 400 000
70.0
1 200 000
60.0
1 000 000
50.0
800 000
40.0
600 000
30.0
400 000
20.0
200 000
10.0
—
—
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Chinese population
China urban population
Proportion urban population

11. WORLD MINING to 2030
% of global mining
70
Europe
60
USA
50
China
40
30
USSR/CIS
20
Australia/Canada
10
0
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
Sources: Raw Materials Data, Stockholm and Sames.
6 resource rich developing
countries

12. World population
Chart Title
9 000 000
70.0
8 000 000
60.0
7 000 000
50.0
6 000 000
5 000 000
40.0
4 000 000
30.0
total population
total urbanised population
proportion urban
3 000 000
20.0
2 000 000
10.0
1 000 000
—
—
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030

13. Potential new importers, population
1 600 000
1 400 000
1 200 000
1 000 000
800 000
600 000
400 000
200 000
—
70
60
50
India
40
India
MENA
30
MENA
Indonesia
20
Indonesia
10
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
—

14. Iron ore projects
Source: Raw Materials Data Iron ore, 2013.

15. Chinese crude steel production
80000
70000
60000
kt
50000
2009
2010
40000
2011
2012
30000
2013
20000
10000
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

16. A chinese forecast
Source: China Metallurgical Mining Association

17. Chinese production
1 400
1 200
1 000
China iron ore
production
800
600
China ore
production
(unconverted)
400
200
2011
2009
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
0

18. World iron ore demand
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

19. 05/01/2009
16/07/2009
01/10/2009
16/12/2009
05/03/2010
25/05/2010
10/08/2010
26/10/2010
13/01/2011
30/03/2011
21/06/2011
06/09/2011
21/11/2011
08/02/2012
26/04/2012
16/07/2012
01/10/2012
14/12/2012
14/03/2013
10/06/2013
30/08/2013
USD
Iron ore prices, TSI 62 % Fe
250
200
150
100
Iron ore fines 62 % Fe, USD/t
Average yearly price
50
0

20. dec-08
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Iron ore prices, forecast
180
160
140
120
100
Historical
80
Low forecast
60
High forecast
40
20
0

21. Conclusions
Summary
Molybdenum drawing: Kaianders Sempler.

22. Summary
We estimate that the world iron ore market will be characterized
by tight conditions for at least a few years to come, although
prices will decline, as new production comes on stream, they
will remain on a high level. The main factors influencing the
market include:
• Chinese steel demand, demand drivers remain in place, will
grow considerably slower than during the past decade, while
demand in the rest of the world will pick up.
• World steel demand and production will increase at rates that
are high in a historical perspective but nevertheless lower
than during the previous decade.
• Increasing supply constraints.
• Chinese iron ore production will remain significantly lower
than domestic demand.

23. Thank you !
Anton Löf
PO Box 3127
SE-169 03 Solna, Sweden
anton.lof@rmg.se
Tel: +46-8-744 00 65
Fax: +46-8-744 0066
www.rmg.se
www.intierrarmg.se
NIckel drawing: Kaianders Sempler.

24. Metals first isolated in
Sweden/Finland
Please visit www.rmg.se