The sample of the report.

1. | Global steel production forecast
Metal Expert | Global steel production forecast | 1 |
| GLOBAL STEEL
PRODUCTION
FORECAST
TILL 2024
SAMPLE
Metal Expert
January 2015

2. Country
Saudi
T
Country
Company
Plant
Project
type
Product Equipment Unit # Capacity,
'000 tpy
Status Launch
date
Saudi Arabia Saudi Basic Industries
Corporation (SABIC)
Saudi Iron and Steel
(Hadeed)
new
cold-rolling
mill
№2
1000
plan
Q4 2018
Turkey
Gazi Metal
Gazi Metal
new
cold-rolling
mill
№1
350
underway February
2014
Turkey
Gazi Metal
Gazi Metal
upgrade
cold-rolling
mill
№1
350
plan
2014
Vietnam
Hoa Sen Group
Hoa Sen Phu My
new
cold-rolling
mill
№4
200
plan
June
2014
India
JSW Ispat Steel Ltd.
Kalmeshwar
new
cold-rolling
mill
№2
220
underway Q1 2014
new
cold-rolling
mill
№1
1800
underway June
2014
Q1 201
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Metal Expert

3. | Global steel production forecast
Metal Expert | Global steel production forecast | 3 |
| Steel industry: key development scenarios until
2024
Several scenarios of steel industry development over the next 10 years
have been considered within the framework of our steel production
forecast. As a result, we have singled out and elaborated the most
probable scenario. At the same time, other scenarios have also been
employed in various sections of the global manganese market research
for making forecasts of Mn alloys and ore consumption.
Scenario 1: Steel production grows at steady pace
China accounts for half of global steel production therefore exerting the
strongest influence on global steel forecast. Despite some slowdown,
the country’s steel production is likely to keep growing.
Over past 4
years, China’s
steel output has
added 7% a year
on average,
while in other
countries
production has
increased by
1.46% annually.
Annual rate of steel
production growth.
In China, annual steel consumption per capita is 515 kg. Considering
the country’s focus on exports and the same indicator in other large
countries of the region, this figure seems underestimated. In particular,
at peak of production, annual steel consumption per capita was 1,227
kg in South Korea, 642 kg in Japan and 793 kg in Taiwan. Over past 4
years, this indicator has been increasing by some 6% a year. So,
considering current growth rates, it may reach 700-800 kg in 10 years,
which is about the same as in other countries of the region.
Besides, in 2014 China boosted steel product exports. Over 9 months
of 2014, the country increased longs production by 4% y-o-y, while
domestic sales added just 2% and exports – as much as 62%, the
country’s share in global long product trade reaching 30%. So, further
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4. | Global steel production forecast
| 4 | Metal Expert | Global steel production forecast
increase in global steel demand will, to some extent, keep urging a rise
in production in China.
Over past 14 years, the global steel production (excluding China) has
been growing by the average of 1.5% per year. At this pace, in 10 years
global steel production will rise to 2.5 billion tpy, up 42%. Over 2005-
2014, the world’s steel output increased by 46%, so within this scenario
the 10-year growth will slow down by 4 percentage points.
In 10 years global
steel production will
rise by 42%, with
China’s share
increasing to 60%.
Steel production in China
and the rest of the world.
Scenario 2: China’s steel production will decrease over next 5
years
According to many experts, in 2015-2016 China may see a growth of
steel production being replaced by a decrease.
Most of large-scale infrastructure projects are completed or nearing the
completion, so the level of urbanization in densely populated industrial
regions is close to that in Europe, which will restrain the rates of
domestic steel consumption.
To a great extent, the growth of steel production in 2014 was urged by
the increase in steel product exports. Taking into account a negative
outlook of global demand and tight competition among suppliers,
exports are unlikely to further support steel melting in China.
Besides, new steelmelting capacities of some 145 million tpy are to be
launched in the world (excluding China) in the next 4 years. Since
global consumption (excluding China) has been growing by the average
of 2.1% per year over past 10 years, steel demand is expected to rise
by 110 million t over next 4 years to be fully met by new capacities.
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5. | Global steel production forecast
Metal Expert | Global steel production forecast | 5 |
By 2024 steel
melting in China
will rise by no
more than 200
million t from
2014.
Steel production in
China and the rest of
the world.
.
Following a period of stagnation, China’s steel production will start
growing again. Improving domestic consumption will account for most of
the growth. Besides, Chinese steelmakers are likely to increase exports
amid growing demand.
Scenario 3: Main
Within the main scenario, the global steel production is forecast to
increase to 2.03 billion t over the next 10 years. The growth of steel
production in China will slow much down over the next 5 years to stop
by the end of the forecast period. In other countries, steel output is
expected to rise by 3.1%-3.6% per year to replace part of Chinese
supply in the global market. The fastest increase in production will be
registered in India and Middle East.
More about main scenario of steel production development in the
world’s regions is given in our report.
Best regards,
Artem Segen
tel +38 056 370 12 07 ext 179
mob +38 097 966 73 11
skype art_se1
e-mail: A.Segen@metalexpert-group.com
www.metalexpert-group.com
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