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Creating a Water-Secure Pakistan
(Islamabad. October 19-21, 2018)
GILGIT-BALTISTAN, CAN BE A BIG PART OF
THE SOLUTION, FOR THE CURRENT WATER
CRISES IN MAINLAND PAKITAN
A Road Map
By: Izhar Hunzai
A SUSTAINABLE WHITE GOLDMINE
• 2,066 km3 of glaciers, or 1,675 MAF of
water
• Natural storage equivalent to 11.6
years of supplies, renewable, but now
subject to CC
• Provides 70-80% of annual water flows
to the Indus River, sustaining Pakistan’s
agriculture, industries and cities
CONCORDIA
BATURA
SIACHIN
HISPAR GLACIER
BEAUTIFUL BALTISTAN
WAY FORWARD
• Articulate a Vision for Integrated River
Basin Management (IRBM)
• Create an inclusive legal framework
• Develop, implement and monitor
smart resource development &
management plans
• Ensure equity in access to benefits for
all stakeholders
VISION STATEMENT
Indus River is the Sacred
National Asset of Pakistan.
Indus and Pakistan are sine
qua non
(As articulated by the Honorable CJP)
STRATEGY
• Increase the size of the pie for everyone,
by systematically developing all feasible
projects under a long term plan
• Reform/innovate from top to bottom,
from the Constitution, to government,
business and community practices
• Leverage Pakistan’s entrepreneurial,
intellectual and financial resources
• Continue to inspire and energize Pakistan’s
philanthropic spirit
ADDRESS LIMINAL STATUS OF GB
• GB’s unsettled status has prevented it from
realizing even a fraction of its potential
• If DBD, Bunji Project and KBD were built in
time, Pakistan would have managed a
double digit growth rate for a decade or
more by now
• ADB/ WB pulled out of an earlier
understanding to invest in DBD in 2006
under pressure from India
• China also shies away from investing CPEC
money in GB
LINK MACRO WITH MICRO
• Benefits of mega projects don’t necessarily trickle
down; they need specific planning for the context
• Create mechanisms for top down and bottom up
development
• Invest in transformative projects and programs to
integrate local communities in the benefits of
dams and other large projects, which ca be quite
disruptive
• Supplement cash payments (land compensation)
with education and skills
ACTION PLAN
• Develop a total basin development plan and set
targets
• Use international benchmarks for storage, per capita
water/energy needs, anticipate future needs
• Start from the Upper Indus Basin which is more or
less immune to vagaries of the political economy of
Pakistan
• Go for scale and multipurpose projects, energy,
storage, food control (20,000 MW and 20 MAF
• Leverage public money to attract private capital
investment
RECOMMENDATIONS
• Develop all economically feasible storage and
hydroelectric projects: target 20,000 MW & 20 MAF in GB
in 20 years and build smart grids
• Decentralize authority to develop at lest 1,000 MW and
below projects to GB
• Create a special purpose vehicle for community
development in Diamer/ Kohistan districts
• Incentivize private sector investment in generation,
transmission, and distribution of hydropower and market-
based water management services
• Pull out of plans to bring electricity from Tajikistan (KASA)
over difficult terrain and unstable Afghanistan, and use
that money to extend National Grid to GB
• Encourage Engineering universities in mainland Pakistan to
open a campus in GB to prepare HR for DBD and other
long-term projects

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Glaciers are melting

  • 1. Creating a Water-Secure Pakistan (Islamabad. October 19-21, 2018) GILGIT-BALTISTAN, CAN BE A BIG PART OF THE SOLUTION, FOR THE CURRENT WATER CRISES IN MAINLAND PAKITAN A Road Map By: Izhar Hunzai
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  • 4. A SUSTAINABLE WHITE GOLDMINE • 2,066 km3 of glaciers, or 1,675 MAF of water • Natural storage equivalent to 11.6 years of supplies, renewable, but now subject to CC • Provides 70-80% of annual water flows to the Indus River, sustaining Pakistan’s agriculture, industries and cities
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  • 14. WAY FORWARD • Articulate a Vision for Integrated River Basin Management (IRBM) • Create an inclusive legal framework • Develop, implement and monitor smart resource development & management plans • Ensure equity in access to benefits for all stakeholders
  • 15. VISION STATEMENT Indus River is the Sacred National Asset of Pakistan. Indus and Pakistan are sine qua non (As articulated by the Honorable CJP)
  • 16. STRATEGY • Increase the size of the pie for everyone, by systematically developing all feasible projects under a long term plan • Reform/innovate from top to bottom, from the Constitution, to government, business and community practices • Leverage Pakistan’s entrepreneurial, intellectual and financial resources • Continue to inspire and energize Pakistan’s philanthropic spirit
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  • 18. ADDRESS LIMINAL STATUS OF GB • GB’s unsettled status has prevented it from realizing even a fraction of its potential • If DBD, Bunji Project and KBD were built in time, Pakistan would have managed a double digit growth rate for a decade or more by now • ADB/ WB pulled out of an earlier understanding to invest in DBD in 2006 under pressure from India • China also shies away from investing CPEC money in GB
  • 19. LINK MACRO WITH MICRO • Benefits of mega projects don’t necessarily trickle down; they need specific planning for the context • Create mechanisms for top down and bottom up development • Invest in transformative projects and programs to integrate local communities in the benefits of dams and other large projects, which ca be quite disruptive • Supplement cash payments (land compensation) with education and skills
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  • 21. ACTION PLAN • Develop a total basin development plan and set targets • Use international benchmarks for storage, per capita water/energy needs, anticipate future needs • Start from the Upper Indus Basin which is more or less immune to vagaries of the political economy of Pakistan • Go for scale and multipurpose projects, energy, storage, food control (20,000 MW and 20 MAF • Leverage public money to attract private capital investment
  • 22. RECOMMENDATIONS • Develop all economically feasible storage and hydroelectric projects: target 20,000 MW & 20 MAF in GB in 20 years and build smart grids • Decentralize authority to develop at lest 1,000 MW and below projects to GB • Create a special purpose vehicle for community development in Diamer/ Kohistan districts • Incentivize private sector investment in generation, transmission, and distribution of hydropower and market- based water management services • Pull out of plans to bring electricity from Tajikistan (KASA) over difficult terrain and unstable Afghanistan, and use that money to extend National Grid to GB • Encourage Engineering universities in mainland Pakistan to open a campus in GB to prepare HR for DBD and other long-term projects

Editor's Notes

  1. God has created this region for water and clean energy.