This document discusses three categories of business models: disrupt, transform, and collapse. Disruptive business models create new markets through innovations like taxi apps Uber and Hailo. Transforming models evolve through new value propositions or product design, like AT&T's connected living solutions. Collapsing models see the shutdown of old processes due to new technologies, like Kodak after digital photography. The document also discusses major trends impacting business and society, such as urbanization, smart cities, connectivity, health and mobility.

1. GIL 2014: MONACO The Global Community of Growth, Innovation and Leadership
#GILMonaco

2. Disrupt, Collapse, Transform: New Business Models Paving the Way to Innovation

3. 3 Key Categories of Business Models
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Disrupt
Transform
Collapse

4. A business model that leads to the creation of a new market or
a value network, usually through innovations in new technology.
Disrupt

5. Hailo (UK, 2011)
•Launched in London 2011; 13,000 drivers & 3m journeys there to date
•Now present in 16 cities with 42,000 drivers, 750,000 users, 8.5m journeys to date, amassing $100m annual taxi revenues
•Several investors totalling $50m, including Richard Branson
Uber (USA, 2011)
•In 100 cities (Jan ‘14), growing at 18% per month, estimated $125m revenue 2013
•Reported $250m investment from several firms, inc. Google Ventures – self driving vehicle?
•Integrates taxi, “black sedan” and SUV hire – aiming at the premium chauffeur market
B2C Example: Example of On Demand Services: Taxi Apps
Assess the threat of taxi & on demand apps, and consider investing in current providers or a new rival Proposition

6. Complete redundancy or shutting down of old techniques, processes and even businesses due to the advent of new technology or radically new innovations
Collapse

7. Other Examples of Collapsing Business Models
7
Collapse of Kodak after Digital Print
Digital Retail Collapsing Brick and Mortar Store
Collapse of Blockbuster after Digital Film
Possible Collapse?

8. Business models that focus on high-growth yet evolutionary development of the business either through re-inventing the wheel in terms of new value propositions or investment in new product design.
Transform

9. Case Study B2B Business Model: AT&T’s Digital Life: Alliance Based/ Partnership Model
9
Security System E.g. Honeywell
Control Panels E.g. Cisco
Wireless Sensors
E.g. Aeon Labs
Analytics
E.g. Aeon Labs
Connected Living Package Solution
E.g. AT&T Digital Life
Retail Stores: DIY Package sold at retail stores
Direct Selling: Professional Installation at Home
Aggregated by Telecom Operators
A
B
Aggregator
Telecom Vendors
Installation
Telecom Vendors (or DIY)
Operation & Maintenance
Telecom Vendors and eco-system of partners
Analytics & Monitoring
Third-party analytics and monitoring stations / Telecom Vendor Monitoring Station
Source: AT&T, Verizon and Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Through M2M connectivity and network connectivity, these providers aggregate various solutions and offer as connected living solutions on unified platforms

10. Fast-Forward to 2025: New Mega Trends Transforming the World as We Know It Macro to Micro Opportunities on Future Business, Cultures and Personal Lives

11. What is a Mega Trend?
What is a Mega Trend?
Mega trends are transformative, global forces that define the future world with their far reaching impact on business, societies, economies, cultures and personal lives.
Urbanization – City as a Customer
Smart is the New Green
Social Trends
Connectivity and Convergence
Bricks and Clicks
Innovating to Zero
New Business Models: Value for Many
Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers
Future Infrastructure Development
Health, Wellness and Well Being
Future of Mobility
11
Top Mega Trends Covered By The Visionary Innovation Research Division
Future of Energy

12. Connectivity & Convergence

13. Digital Currency: $11 billion worth of Bitcoins in circulation currently
Connected Living:
$730 Billion Market Opportunity in 2020
Personal Robots: Robots priced between $1,566 and $4,699 could enter our personal lives
3D/4D Printing: $7.3 Billion Market Opportunity by 2020
Augmented Reality/Virtual World: New Markets of Augmented Shopping and Virtual Commerce
Space Jam: 1,213 Total Number of satellites globally by 2021
4D Printing: Self- assembling/self-repairing objects could enter our lives by 2050
Nanobots: Swarms of Nanobots could enter manufacturing and energy by 2030
Sensorization of Devices: From Touchscreen to Brain-controlled devices
Wearable Devices: Over $11 billion market estimated for 2020
Big Data:
40% annual growth in big data to 2020
80 Billion
Connected Devices in 2020 and $14.7Tr internet economy
Powered Exoskeletons : Iron Man style exoskeletons could enter our lives by 2050

14. 14
Connectivity in Africa: $200 B Opportunity by 2020
`
E-Applications and localised African
VAS content
$9.60 Billion
Mobility
Mobile operators
Revenue will double in next ten years due to data uptake
Contact Centre and BPO
$7.79 Billion
Infrastructure
Development $60.00 Billion
M-Health $40.00 Billion
Devices Over $70.00 Billion
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Key Connectivity Drivers, Africa, 2010-2020

15. Connectivity Driven Convergence Connectivity Driven Convergence: Industries, Products, Technologies ... Competition
INDUSTRIES
PRODUCTS
Internet
Sensors
Remote Monitoring
TECHNOLOGIES
Haptics
MRI scans
Haptic Based MRIs
Healthcare Industry
Mobile Phones
mHealth
1
3
2
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
Image Source:: `Creative Commons and Dreamstime.

16. Urbanisation - “City as a Customer”
16

17. Cities, and Not Countries, Will Drive
Wealth Creation In the Future
Seoul Accounts for about 50% of Korea’s GDP New York City, with a GDP of $1.28 trillion, is equivalent to being the 15th largest country in the world, close in economic scale to South Korea ($1.12 trillion).
What are the Micro Implications?
High Economic Power
Hub and Spoke Business Model
Transit oriented development
City as a Customer
17

18. 18
Urbanisation in Africa: $1.36 T Opportunity by 2020
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Key Urbanisation Drivers, Africa, 2010-2020
`
Electricity
$0.5 trillion in electricity infrastructure
Healthcare Infrastructure
$30.00 billion private healthcare infrastructure
Infrastructure
$30.00 billion in road and rail infrastructure upgrading
Port Infrastructure
Port infrastructure
investment and upgrading of $0.2 trillion
Water Sanitation
Infrastructure and Chemicals
$0.6 trillion in investment

19. Smart is the New Green

20. 20.93
14.11
16.65
13.75
9.09
15.26
10.21
Smart Infrastructure3
CAGR: 8.9% (2012-2020)
Smart Cities To Create Huge Business Opportunities With A Market Value Of $1.5 Trillion By 2020
1
2
4
5
6
Smart Governance and Smart Education2
CAGR: 12.4% (2012-2020)
Smart Energy
CAGR: 19.6% (2012-2020)
Smart Transportation
CAGR: 14.8% (2012-2020)
Smart Healthcare
CAGR: 6.9% (2012-2020)
Smart Building
CAGR: 8.8% (2012-2020)
7
Smart City Market by Segments,1 Global, 2020
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Note: The graph represent the market share of each segment in the smart city market.
For more information on smart city market sectors please refer to appendix
Smart City Market
2Smart Education includes eLearning services for schools, universities, enterprises, and government entities
1These numbers represent the entire smart solutions eco-system in each segment for both urban and non-urban panoramas
Smart Security CAGR: 14% (2012-2020)
3
3Other Smart Infrastructure such as sensor networks, digital management of water utilities not included in other segments
20

21. Social Trends

22. Global Population in 2025: Out of 2.72 Billion Gen Y Population , Around 52% from Asia Alone
Around 37% of Gen Y Population Will Live in India and China Alone
World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global), 2025
2025
2011
6.99 Billion
8.01 Billion
0-14 years
15-34 years
35-64 years
65 years and above
Source: Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations 2011; Frost & Sullivan, 2012
22

23. Economic Trends

24. Sub Trend : The Next Game Changers in 2025 High GDP growth, improved FDIs, and rapid industrialization to give rise to a new lot of emerging countries, beyond BRIC nations, that contend to become next decade’s economic leaders
$2,327 Billion
$1,041 Billion
$2,441 Billion
$653 Billion
$772 Billion
$323 Billion
$483 Billion
Mexico
Egypt
Turkey
Poland
Indonesia
Thailand
Vietnam
Philippines
Next Game Changers
Note : The figure denotes GDP at market prices. Forecasts to 2025 have been extrapolated based on Nominal GDP growth rate projections
Source: International Monetary Fund. Oxford Economics, Frost & Sullivan,
$3,071 Billion
$730 Billion
Nigeria
The trillion dollar economies
24

25. Health, Wellness and Wellbeing
25

26. Future of Health, Wellness and Wellbeing
26
Disease Management
Clinical Diagnostics & Therapeutics
Preventive Services
Physical Exams
Coaching
Communication/ Information Services
Consumer Products
Medical Health Spas
Complementary and Alternative Medicines
Integrated Health Solutions
Healthcare today
Today’s world
Healthy
Vulnerable
Affected
Sick
Education
Future system
Wellness
Healthcare
Wellness
Healthcare
Future healthcare
Source: Frost & Sullivan

27. 27
HWW in Africa: $200 B Opportunity by 2020
Source: IFC, Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Key Health, Wellness and Wellbeing Drivers, Africa, 2010-2020
Medical educaton, 9%
Risk pooling, 13%
Life Sciences (incl. Distribution), 28%
Health services provision, 50%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
For profit, 60%
Social enterprise, 23%
NGO/ non profit, 17%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Breakdown of Private Healthcare Investment Opportunities, Africa
Infrastructure
Capital Expenditure
$16 billion in medical devices investment across the continent
Hospital Construction
$80 billion in needed healthcare infrastructure
Health system infrastructure Requirement to reach MDG – 58,000 additional facilities operating to reach target goals
Breakdown of Healthcare Investment Opportunities, Africa

28. Conclusion

29. Macro
Micro
From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from Information to Strategy Implementation
Mega Trend
Selected trends that impact your business and markets
Sub Trend
A sub-layer of trends that has a wide ranging impact
Impact to Your Industry
Visualising the roadmap of these critical forces through scenario- building and macro economic forecasts
Impact on Future Product/ Technology
Analysis of Opportunities and Unmet Needs
To
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30. From Macro to Micro: Workshop Delivery Format
30
Mega
Trends
Technology
Trends
Market
Trends
• 100+ Markets
• Physicists
• Scientists
• Theorists
• Futurists etc..
• 100+ Markets
• 3-7 Year Forecasts
• Market Players
• CI
• Global Mega Trends
• Regional Mega Trends
• Best Practices
• Innovation
• Strategy
Mega Trend Workshop Clients
No other company combines the extensive analysis F&S does when analyzing trends, making our content reliable and cutting edge