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Top global mega trends
- 1. Top Global MegaTrends and Their Impact on Business, Cultures and Society By Franck Leveque Vice President & Business Unit Leader
- 2. What is aMega Trend? What is a Mega Trend? Mega trends are transformative, global forces that define the future world with their far reaching impact on business, societies, economies, cultures and personal lives. Urbanization – City as a Customer Smart is the New Green Social Trends Connectivity and Convergence Bricks and Clicks Innovating to Zero New Business Models: Value for Many Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers Future Infrastructure Development Health, Wellness and Well Being Future of Mobility 2 Top Mega Trends Covered By The Visionary Innovation Research Division Future of Energy
- 3.
- 4. 10 Connected Devicesfor Every Household by 2020 5 billion internet users by 2020 5 connected devices for every user by 2020 500 devices with unique digital IDs (Internet of things) per square kilometre by 2020 80 Billion Connected Devices By 2020 4
- 5. 5 From 1G to4G…..to 5G….and Bandwidth of >1GBPS 1G 2G 3G 4G Digital Voice Calls Data Video Streaming Analog Voice Calls Speed: 50 KBPS Speed: 250 KBPS Bandwidth: 20 MBPS Bandwidth200 MBPS
- 6. 6 Space Jam Representsa New Frontier for Silicon Valley Players to Create Connectivity in Unwired Parts of the Globe Google Facebook SpaceX Source: Frost & Sullivan
- 7. 77 Source: Frost &Sullivan Connected Home Connected Work Connected City • Home Automation • Home Energy • Home Health • Home Entertainment • Mobility - Mobile email, Unified Communication • Mobile Working • Enterprise Social Networking • eGovernance • eCitizens • Personal and Freight Mobility • E-learning • Mobile banking Sub Trend: Future Connected Living Ecosystem Connected life contains three important aspects of connected home, connected city, and connected work
- 8. 8 QIVICON B2B BusinessHub including partners from… Health (E.g Tunstall) Multimedia (E.g Samsung) Automation (E.g Belkin) Security (E.g Pax) Energy EnBW, Solon Appliances, electronics (A&E) Miele, Samsung QIVICON CONNECTED HOME PLATFORM for consumers aggregating service from all partners. Consumer Homes B2B B2B2C Case Study: Connected Home’s B2B Platform Of Deutsche Telekom
- 9. 9 What Can BigData Do For Us? Text Text Internet Aggregators Price transparency, unbundling of activities Real-Time Prognostics Proactive maintenance, warranty management Personalization & Customization ‘Me-commerce’, Social media analytics and reporting for targeted ads New Products User-based insurance, Telematics Dynamic Pricing Real-time billboard pricing, Price different vouchers, Surge pricing (Uber) Big Data Applications
- 10. Sub Trend: AugmentedReality Augmented Reality (AR) is defined as a real-time augmented view of the environment through digital data through use of text, sound, graphics, video, and navigation systems that increases user’s interactivity with the local environment . This extends business and mobility options, social interactions and experiences which has implications on personal lives, businesses and even day-to-day activities. Reality Augmented Reality Augmented Virtuality Virtual World 10
- 11. 11 Implication: Connectivity IsPushing Convergence Connectivity will Accelerate Convergence of Industries, Products, Technologies and Competition INDUSTRIES PRODUCTS Car Unmanned Technology Autonomous Cars TECHNOLOGIES Building Technologies Smart Automation Smart Home Hubs Healthcare Telecom M-Health 1 3 2 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysisImage Source:: `Creative Commons and Dreamstime.
- 12. Smart is theNew Green
- 13.
- 14. 14 Smart Diamond thatDefines a Smart City 4G Smart Energy Smart Building Smart Citizen Smart Technology Smart Healthcare Smart Mobility Smart Infrastructure* Smart Governance Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.* Other Smart Infrastructure such as security solutions sensor networks, digital management of water utilities not included in other segments
- 15. 15 Selected Smart Citiesin 2025 Global Smart Cities Over 26 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2025 - More than 50% of Smart cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North America Source: Forbes Smart City List, Innovation City Index, Specific Smart Project Websites for Each City, Frost & Sullivan Toronto San Francisco Vancouver Paris New York London Berlin Barcelona Amsterdam Seattle Tokyo Singapore Calgary Chicago Los Angeles Vienna Copenhagen Oslo Seoul Beijing Tianjin Wuhan Helsinki Sydney Shenzhen Stockholm Santander (upcoming)
- 16. There Are FourDifferent Roles Smart Cities Players Can Take 16 Pure-Play Product Vendors Managed Service Providers Network Service Providers Integrators Smart city integrators are project integrators - focussing on end-to-end integration of multiple sectors Example: IBM, Accenture, Siemens Smart city network providers offer collaborative networks, data analytics and enterprise working solutions Example: Cisco, Verizon, Ericsson, AT&T 1 2 3 4 Smart city product vendors provide “hard assets” like smart meters and distribution devices Example: Eaton, Honeywell, ABB, Schneider Electric, Siemens Smart city managed service providers offer round-the-clock monitoring, complete management, compliance monitoring, and on-site consulting. Example: IBM, Accenture, Infosys
- 17. Urbanisation - “City asa Customer” 17
- 18. Mega Cities MegaRegions Mega Corridor 18 Smart and Sustainable Cities
- 19. Implication : Cities,and Not Countries, Will Drive Wealth Creation In the Future What are the Micro Implications? • Logistics Consolidation Centers • Hub and Spoke Business Model • Urban Operating Systems • New Mobility Solutions • Smarter Resource Management • City as a customer 19 In 2025 New York City GDP = $1.28 trillion (close in economic scale to South Korea with a GDP of $1.12 trillion) Istanbul will account for more than 22% of country’s GDP
- 20.
- 21. Future of Clicksin Retail Industry Global Online Retail Sales To Reach $4.3 Trillion By 2025 Accounting for 19% of Total Retail $11.8 Trillion $23 Trillion $18.7 Trillion $11.25 Trillion $4.3 Trillion Online Sales Non-Online Sales 5% 95% 19% 81% 21 2011 2025 United States $1.32 Trillion 24% 18% China $1.30 Trillion United Kingdom $0.21 Trillion Germany $0.09 Trillion Japan $0.17 Trillion 26% 15% 10% $0.55 Trillion
- 22. The Retail ModelWill Evolve From a Single/Multiple Channel Model to an Integrated Cross Channel Model Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis Department Stores Supermarkets Hypermarkets Online Mobile Payments Mobile Apps Bricks (pre-2000) +Advent of Clicks (post-2000) Interactive StoresVirtual Stores Hyper Online Markets The Future - Bricks and Clicks (2015 and Beyond) 22
- 23. 23 Fully Digital, Retail-Style Cyberstore One-stopExperience for Entire Model Range Gamification, Augmented Reality Offers Tailor-made services Specially Trained Dealer Personnel Interactivity London Flagship Store Highly personalized customer dialogue Case Study: Audi City London - First Digital Car Showroom Example of Future Digital Car Showrooms that will be “Unlimited”, Personalised, Socially Connected and Digitally Integrated
- 24. 24 Retail Strategy Channel Strategy FulfillmentStrategy No direct retailing Direct retailing in selected regions; target enthusiasts and DIY segments Sell through dealer estores Own web store; dealer estores; marketplace (ex. BMW Direct on eBay) Primarily click ‘n’ collect from existing dealerships Likely to explore both click ‘n’ collect and direct delivery C L I C K A N D P O S T C L I C K A N D F I T ( d e a l e r s h i p / m o b i l e C L I C K A N D C O L L E C T Case Study : Parts eRetailing Strategy
- 25. Retail Logistics: The“Holy Grail” Offering a convenient delivery options at standard prices requires a smooth-running retail operation that combines a real-time view of inventory with distribution points Same-Day Night TimeClick ‘n’ CollectLocker Boxes Microdistribution Mobile Collection Inventory Visibility Cold Supply Chain Services Multiple Delivery Options Smaller Shipments Frequent Deliveries Electric VehiclesUrban Intermodal Hubs
- 26.
- 27.
- 28. Global Population in2025: Out of 2.45 Billion Gen Y Population , Around 52% from Asia Alone Around 37% of Gen Y Population Will Live in India and China Alone World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global), 2025 2025 2011 6.99 Billion 8.01 Billion 0-14 years 15-34 years 35-64 years 65 years and above Source: Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations 2011; Frost & Sullivan, 2012 28
- 29. LicenceHolders(%ofthetotal) Source: Frost andSullivan Analysis 51 50 47 44 44 41 41 40 37 29 12 USA Canada UK Japan Italy Germany Spain Brazil China Russia India 5.17% 8.97% 6.05% Driving Licence Analysis by Gender and Country 2012 marked the reversal of a long term gender gap behind the wheel in the US (across all age groups) Male licence holders Women licence holders
- 30. Robots Priced Between$1.5k to $5k Could Enter our Personal Lives by 2020 Robotic for Elderly Care: Assisted Living Robots as Teaching Assistants Nanobots Used for Targeted Drug DeliveryRobotic in Healthcare eg. Non Invasive Surgeries Done by Robotic Arms Robot Window Cleaner Robots at Home
- 31.
- 32. The Next GameChangers in 2025 High GDP growth, improved FDIs, and rapid industrialization to give rise to a new lot of emerging countries, beyond BRIC nations, that contend to become next decade’s economic leaders $2,327 Billion $1,041 Billion $2,441 Billion $653 Billion $772 Billion $323 Billion $483 Billion Mexico Egypt Turkey Poland Indonesia Thailand Vietnam PhilippinesNext Game Changers Note : The figure denotes GDP at market prices. Forecasts to 2025 have been extrapolated based on Nominal GDP growth rate projections Source: International Monetary Fund. Oxford Economics, Frost & Sullivan, $3,071 Billion $730 Billion Nigeria The trillion dollar economies 32
- 33. Mega Trend : NewBusiness Models: Value for Many 33
- 34. New Business Models Personalization andCustomization Personalization & Customization Nike and BMW Quirky .com Co-Creation One-off Experience Pay as you go PAYD and PAHYD Car Insurance (BMW on Demand) 34 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
- 35. Why Do WeScout for New Business Models? Focusing on business model innovation can lead to significantly higher returns Cumulative Value Creation Last 10 Years Volume of Innovation Efforts Last 10 YearsHi Source: Doblin analysis, Doblin Inc. Lo Hi Lo Strategy Process Product Delivery Business model Partnering Enabling process Core process Product performance Product system Service Channel Brand Customer experience
- 36. Impact of NewBusiness Models: Disrupt. Transform. Or Collapse Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Disrupt TransformCollapse
- 37. Hailo (UK) Uber (USA,) DisruptExample: Example of On Demand Services: Taxi Apps Assess the threat of taxi & on demand apps, and consider investing in current providers or a new rival Proposition Since 2011 20 cities 42,000 Drivers 800,000 Users 8.5 million Journeys $6.3 million Revenues 250 Cities worldwide 8 million Users Revenue = $200 million (est) $40bn valuation
- 38. Examples of CollapsingBusiness Models 38 Collapse of Kodak after Digital Print Digital Retail Collapsing Brick and Mortar Store Collapse of Blockbuster after Digital Film Possible Collapse?
- 39. The Netflix Story:How the Disrupt, Collapse, Transform Was Employed into its Evolution 39 DVD-by-Mail Disruptor On-Demand Video Streaming Threatened Collapse Shifting to Production – Backward Integration – Transforming Netflix!
- 40. Mega Trend : Health,Wellness and Wellbeing 40
- 41. Mood Stress levels Mental health Senseof optimism Attitude Security Safety Personal values Personal fulfilment Self image / self actualisation Sight / vision Touch & feel Smell / breathing Sound Temperature Wellness The 3 Cornerstones - The Body, Mind and Soul - Contribute To Humans Definition of Health, Wellness and Well Being Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012 41
- 42. 42 Key 2015 MedicalTechnology Trends Launch of Clinical mHealth Apps Moving Beyond the Wrist for Wearables Vanishing Devices Microsegmentation 3D/ 4D Printing Spurs Customization Brain-Interface Devices
- 43. Mega Trend : Innovatingto Zero
- 44. Snapshot of a“Zero Concept” World in 2020 Zero Emissions from Cars Zero Accidents Zero Breaches of Security Zero Crime Rates Zero Waste/ Emissions Complete Recyclability from Households (Cradle to Cradle Concept) Zero Defects and Zero Faults Carbon Neutral Factories and Retail Stores Carbon Neutral Cities Zero Corporate Debts Zero Emails
- 45. Examples of “Innovatingto Zero” Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012 Off-the-Grid Buildings - On-site Energy Harvest - Use of Intelligent Systems - Increase use of renewable energy Net Zero Hospitals - - Energy efficient buildings - Greener Transport - Waste Reduction and Waste Recycling - Increase use of Renewable Energy Cutting Edge IT -Infrastructure and Services - that convert Ideas to implementation on real-time Instant File Sharing - Networking Interfaces - Zero Management Gaps -Zero Processing Time- Zero Learning Gaps- - In-house design, cutting, finishing - Continuous, speedy deliveries - Direct point-of-sale data collection, - Daily analysis of product sales and customer feedback using software analytics Zero faults and zero - errors in manufacturing Highly Strict Quality - Control - Strong Health and Safety Measures - Safety Days (eg. Shell) - Life-Saving Rules within facilities - Active safety systems in vehicles that over ride drivers Zero Energy Building Zero AccidentsZero Defects Carbon Neutral City Zero Time Business Incubation Zero Design- To-Shelf (Retail) 45
- 46. Mega Trend : Futureof Energy 46
- 47. Top 10 Technologiesand Markets to Watch for to 2025 Energy Efficiency and SMART Buildings LED Lighting Revolution Small Scale Distributed Generation SMART Grid & SMART Energy Advanced Batteries and Energy Storage SMART Water Networks Solar PV Energy Harvesting Energy Recovery from Waste Gas-fired Power & Shale Gas Exploitation
- 48.
- 49. In Future, HSRail will not only Connect Cities and Countries but will also Connect Continents • China : 25,000 kms by 2025 (7,431 kms in 2010) • 2020 Trans Siberian Link: New Route 66 • Biggest Project: $68 billion California HSR • UK project: £33 billion (by 2026) What are the Opportunities? • Copper-silver and copper-magnesium wires • Steel Companies • Construction tooling, spare parts • Condition monitoring, security, surveillance, • Data handling, Passenger information systems • High Speed Logistics Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012
- 50. Mega Trend : FutureOf Mobility 50 50
- 51. Future of Mobility Micro-mobility Integratedmobility Global car sharing New Business Models (E.g. Taxi Apps) Connected cars Telematics based insurance Autonomous Cars
- 52. Future Innovation inMobility to Focus on The “Wild” Side Known Solutions Met Needs Unmet Needs Unknown Solutions Technology Innovation Traffic Prediction system Dynamic Parking ADAS features Improvement Micro cars Electric and FC Cars Electric Bikes Application Innovation Corporate mobility solutions Car Sharing Car Pooling Bike Sharing Wild Innovation Mobility Integration New Mobility Products and Services Micro mobility solutions 52
- 53. DEMAND RESPONSIVE TRANSPORT (TAXI, BRT) CONNECTED LIVING(including car) INTERCITY PUBLIC TRANSPORT CAR LEASING CAR RENTAL CAR SHARING & POOLING INTRACITY PUBLIC TRANSPORT PHYD INSURANCE DYNAMIC PARKING CONCIERGE SERVICES ENERGY MANAGEMENT MICRO-MOBILITY SOLUTIONS TRAINS/FLIGHTS INTEGRATION APPS, JOURNEY PLANNING, BIG DATA From Car Configurator to Mobility Configurator In Future Industry Stakeholders Will Showcase Mobility Integrators on line
- 54. Source: Frost &Sullivan analysis. Ride Sharing Smart Parking Taxi Hailing Urban Logistics Car SharingIntegrated Mobility …further investments and partnerships to be expected moovel – A Mobility Brand First; OEM Owned Second Generating €80M revenue & targeting international expansion and revenues of €800M by 2020
- 55.
- 56. Utilities of ThePast 56 18TH CENTURY Industrial Revolution 19TH CENTURY Electricity 20TH CENTURY Communication Industry LATE 20TH CENTURY The Internet 21st century utilities?
- 57. 21st Century Utilities:What is the Future ? 57 Big data ? Healthcare ? Mobility ? Media ?
- 58.