The document analyzes future climate scenarios for Kenya's tea growing zones. It finds that by 2050:
- Annual rainfall and temperatures will increase across tea growing areas in Kenya.
- Suitable areas for tea production will decrease significantly in western parts of Kenya and shift to higher altitudes near Mount Kenya.
- The optimal altitude for tea production will increase from 1500-2100 masl currently to 2000-2300 masl by 2050.
- Alternative crops like passion fruit, banana and peas may be better suited than tea or coffee in many areas facing decreased tea suitability by 2050.
The document summarizes a study on developing future climate scenarios for Uganda's tea growing zones. The study finds that:
1) Annual rainfall and temperatures will increase in Uganda by 2020 and 2050 according to climate models.
2) The climate suitability of tea production in Uganda will significantly decrease by 2050, with suitable areas shifting to higher altitudes.
3) Potential alternative crops like banana, cassava and citrus may remain suitable until 2020, but few alternatives will be suitable in tea growing areas by 2050, requiring exploration of additional options.
This document summarizes a study that used targeted conservation planning to identify opportunities for improving ecosystem services in an agricultural watershed. The Agricultural Conservation Planning Framework was used to assess field-level risks of runoff and nitrate leaching. Fields were then prioritized based on their combined biophysical risk and opportunity costs. This approach identified fields where conservation practices could reduce nutrient losses at low cost and high ecological benefit, optimizing environmental and economic outcomes. The results provide an example of how targeted conservation can be implemented in a watershed to meet nutrient reduction goals in a cost-effective manner.
VIIe - Global Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration Potential Map - GSOCseqSoils FAO-GSP
The document discusses developing a global soil organic carbon sequestration potential map (GSOCseq) using two approaches. The top-down approach uses climate change scenarios to project SOC stocks over time without and with sustainable soil management. The bottom-up approach uses process modeling calibrated with soil profile observations to estimate baseline SOC stocks and potential under different scenarios. Preliminary results show potential SOC sequestration ranges from 60-245 petagrams for RCP2.6 and 82-325 petagrams for RCP8.5 by 2100 depending on management practices. The top-down approach uses empirical relationships between management factors and SOC stock changes to assess mitigation potential from sustainable soil practices.
Baseline concentration of Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Pb, Ni and Zn in surface soils of SAElize Herselman
THE AIM OF THIS STUDY WAS TO DRAW up baseline concentrations for several environmentally important trace elements in South African soils. A major inventory of
some 4500 soil profiles has been compiled in South Africa over the past three decades and information on chemical composition can now readily be generated for the country as a
whole.
The Global Ecosystem Center has developed a tool called GeoCarbon that uses satellite imagery and IPCC guidelines to produce accurate estimates of terrestrial carbon storage at a high 30-meter resolution globally. It can calculate existing carbon storage, track changes over time, and model scenarios. A case study for Vietnam found that a 2% decrease in forest cover would result in a loss of 104 million metric tons of carbon, equivalent to $7.2 billion on the carbon market. Comparisons showed GeoCarbon estimates were consistent with other studies but provided more detailed data due to its higher resolution. GeoCarbon is presented as a useful decision-making tool for evaluating development impacts on carbon storage.
The document discusses a project to develop future climate scenarios for Kenya's tea growing zones and identify potential alternative crops. It will use climate data and crop suitability models to predict where tea can still be grown under future climate conditions and identify other crops suitable for areas that may no longer support tea. The methodology involves using historical climate data, global climate models, and tools like MaxEnt and Ecocrop to project the potential suitability of tea and alternative crops under future climate scenarios.
The IIAM-CIAT project aims to help Mozambique build resilience to climate change impacts through analyzing climate data and modeling crop responses. Mozambique is highly vulnerable to climate hazards like cyclones and droughts. The project will analyze climate trends, identify adaptation options, and make recommendations. Global climate models provide the best available climate projections but have coarse resolution, uncertainties, and limited availability of data. Downscaling methods can increase resolution and uniformity of climate projections to better inform adaptation planning.
The document summarizes a study on developing future climate scenarios for Uganda's tea growing zones. The study finds that:
1) Annual rainfall and temperatures will increase in Uganda by 2020 and 2050 according to climate models.
2) The climate suitability of tea production in Uganda will significantly decrease by 2050, with suitable areas shifting to higher altitudes.
3) Potential alternative crops like banana, cassava and citrus may remain suitable until 2020, but few alternatives will be suitable in tea growing areas by 2050, requiring exploration of additional options.
This document summarizes a study that used targeted conservation planning to identify opportunities for improving ecosystem services in an agricultural watershed. The Agricultural Conservation Planning Framework was used to assess field-level risks of runoff and nitrate leaching. Fields were then prioritized based on their combined biophysical risk and opportunity costs. This approach identified fields where conservation practices could reduce nutrient losses at low cost and high ecological benefit, optimizing environmental and economic outcomes. The results provide an example of how targeted conservation can be implemented in a watershed to meet nutrient reduction goals in a cost-effective manner.
VIIe - Global Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration Potential Map - GSOCseqSoils FAO-GSP
The document discusses developing a global soil organic carbon sequestration potential map (GSOCseq) using two approaches. The top-down approach uses climate change scenarios to project SOC stocks over time without and with sustainable soil management. The bottom-up approach uses process modeling calibrated with soil profile observations to estimate baseline SOC stocks and potential under different scenarios. Preliminary results show potential SOC sequestration ranges from 60-245 petagrams for RCP2.6 and 82-325 petagrams for RCP8.5 by 2100 depending on management practices. The top-down approach uses empirical relationships between management factors and SOC stock changes to assess mitigation potential from sustainable soil practices.
Baseline concentration of Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Pb, Ni and Zn in surface soils of SAElize Herselman
THE AIM OF THIS STUDY WAS TO DRAW up baseline concentrations for several environmentally important trace elements in South African soils. A major inventory of
some 4500 soil profiles has been compiled in South Africa over the past three decades and information on chemical composition can now readily be generated for the country as a
whole.
The Global Ecosystem Center has developed a tool called GeoCarbon that uses satellite imagery and IPCC guidelines to produce accurate estimates of terrestrial carbon storage at a high 30-meter resolution globally. It can calculate existing carbon storage, track changes over time, and model scenarios. A case study for Vietnam found that a 2% decrease in forest cover would result in a loss of 104 million metric tons of carbon, equivalent to $7.2 billion on the carbon market. Comparisons showed GeoCarbon estimates were consistent with other studies but provided more detailed data due to its higher resolution. GeoCarbon is presented as a useful decision-making tool for evaluating development impacts on carbon storage.
The document discusses a project to develop future climate scenarios for Kenya's tea growing zones and identify potential alternative crops. It will use climate data and crop suitability models to predict where tea can still be grown under future climate conditions and identify other crops suitable for areas that may no longer support tea. The methodology involves using historical climate data, global climate models, and tools like MaxEnt and Ecocrop to project the potential suitability of tea and alternative crops under future climate scenarios.
The IIAM-CIAT project aims to help Mozambique build resilience to climate change impacts through analyzing climate data and modeling crop responses. Mozambique is highly vulnerable to climate hazards like cyclones and droughts. The project will analyze climate trends, identify adaptation options, and make recommendations. Global climate models provide the best available climate projections but have coarse resolution, uncertainties, and limited availability of data. Downscaling methods can increase resolution and uniformity of climate projections to better inform adaptation planning.
Using well-established empirical and mechanistic models such as Ecocrop, Maxent, DSSAT to assess the impact of climate change on productivity and climate-suitability of crops and production systems.
Overview of the IPCC: its role, mandate, history and the production of the S...ipcc-media
The IPCC was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme to provide comprehensive assessments of the scientific basis of climate change. It produces reports approximately every 6-7 years that inform international climate policy. The Sixth Assessment Cycle will include three main reports from 2021-2023 and special reports on topics like the ocean and land. The IPCC relies on hundreds of scientists to author reports through a consensus-seeking review process.
Fao modelling system for agricultural impacts of climate changeMaroi Tsouli Fathi
The MOSAICC (MOdelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change) system uses an integrated modelling approach to assess the impacts of climate change on agriculture. It includes models for climate, hydrology, crops, forestry, and economic impacts. Climate models are downscaled and bias-corrected to provide climate projections at a high resolution. Hydrology, crop, forestry, and economic models use climate data to project changes in water availability, crop yields, forestry outputs, and economic indicators. Results are made available through a web portal to support climate change impact assessment and adaptation planning.
Mekong ARCC Climate Change and Hydrology Modeling Methods and ResultsMekong ARCC
At the Interim Results Workshop, the Modeling Team presented the climate change and hydrological modeling results for the LMB. The modeling team consists of Mr. Tarek Ketelsen, Mr. Jorma Koponen, Mr. Jeremy Carew-Reid, Mr. Simon Tilleard, Mr. Mai Ky Vinh, and Mr. To Quang Toan.
The performance of portable mid-infrared spectroscopy for the prediction of s...ExternalEvents
This presentation was presented during the 3 Parallel session on Theme 1, Monitoring, mapping, measuring, reporting and verification (MRV) of SOC, of the Global Symposium on Soil Organic Carbon that took place in Rome 21-23 March 2017. The presentation was made by Mr. Martin Soriano-Disla, CSIRO Land and Water - Australia, in FAO Hq, Rome
Overview of the IPCC, its role, mandate, history and the production of the IP...ipcc-media
The IPCC was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme to provide comprehensive assessments of the scientific basis of climate change. It has produced several assessment reports and special reports that have informed international climate change negotiations and policies. The IPCC follows an intensive review process involving scientists and representatives from governments around the world to produce reports that are neutral and policy-relevant assessments of climate change science and impacts. It is currently producing its Sixth Assessment report to inform the global response to climate change.
Cashew: the winner cash crop in W-Africa under a changing climate
This document summarizes a presentation by researchers from the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) on the potential impacts of climate change on cashew production in West Africa. The researchers used crop modeling to project changes in cashew suitability in Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire under future climate scenarios. The modeling found that suitable areas for cashew production may increase by 2050, suggesting opportunities to expand cashew cultivation. However, constraints like low current productivity and risks of bushfires would need to be addressed for cashew to become a more sustainable crop in the region. The presentation concluded with questions about how this information could inform decisions by
This presentation was delivered at the third Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016, in Clark Freeport Zone, Philippines.
The five sub-thematic streams at APFW 2016 included:
Pathways to prosperity: Future trade and markets
Tackling climate change: challenges and opportunities
Serving society: forestry and people
New institutions, new governance
Our green future: green investment and growing our natural assets
Presentation done for the Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science (ICAS) at the University of Leeds, UK, as part of Julian Ramirez-Villegas' PhD work and as a requisite for the PhD transfer.
This document summarizes a presentation on climate data and projections focusing on limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius. It discusses the work of GERICS (the Climate Service Center Germany) in developing solutions for regional climate modeling, impacts analysis, and climate adaptation toolkits. Key points covered include:
- GERICS' interdisciplinary approach to regional climate modeling, impacts assessment, and stakeholder engagement.
- The development of adaptation toolkits for cities, companies, and other sectors to facilitate climate risk assessment and planning.
- An overview of the presentation, covering topics like climate modeling techniques, accessing climate projections data, and visualizing and analyzing climate information.
DSD-Kampala 2023 Modelling the impacts of rising Lake Victoria water levels o...Deltares
Presentation by Seith Mugume (Makerere University) at the Symposium Models and decision-making in the wake of climate uncertainties, during the Deltares Software Days - Kampala 2023 (DSD-Kampala 2023). Wednesday, 4 October 2023, Kampala, Uganda.
1) Models can help assess the effects of management practices on greenhouse gas balances from grasslands over time by accounting for spatial and temporal variations, which makes direct measurement and verification difficult.
2) Models allow evaluation of co-mitigation and adaptation options under current and future climate conditions to future-proof mitigation strategies.
3) Farm-scale models can compare systems and scale results to individual farms by generating emission factors for estimating direct nitrous oxide emissions from grazed pastures.
Ecocrop modeling provides a way to evaluate the climatic suitability of different locations for growing various crops on a monthly basis. It considers temperature and rainfall parameters at each location against the crop's temperature and rainfall requirements. The model calculates temperature and rainfall suitability scores between 0-100% and multiplies them to determine total suitability. It then identifies the highest suitability growing season starting month at each location. The model was developed by FAO and further enhanced by CIAT to provide crop suitability projections. Results from applying it in the Greater Mekong Subregion found decreasing suitability for some crops in many areas by 2050 due to climate change impacts on temperature and rainfall patterns.
eMAST aims to integrate data from TERN and other sources to model ecosystems at all scales in Australia from 2013-2015. This will be done using data assimilation, model evaluation and optimization tools to further ecosystem science and help address questions about topics like carbon, water, climate change, fire, and biodiversity. Key products being delivered include high resolution climate and productivity datasets as well as tools for data analysis, interpolation and modeling. Progress includes the development and delivery of ANUClimate climate datasets and the ePiSaT model for estimating primary productivity across Australia using flux tower and satellite data.
This document discusses the implications of climate change on agriculture and small farmers' livelihoods. Crop prediction models are used to estimate the impact of climate change on the suitability of various crops. Results are then translated to analyze the effects on livelihoods using socioeconomic indicators and econometric models. Participatory workshops are recommended to identify best practices and adaptation strategies. While some crops may lose suitability, climate change also brings new opportunities. Adaptation requires site-specific management and preparing for change.
This document compares greenhouse gas emission estimates for European countries from multiple data sources, including UNFCCC inventories, EDGAR, CAPRI, FAO, and inverse modeling. It finds inconsistencies between sources in activity data and emission factors used. Differences in methodologies used to calculate uncertainties are also identified. The document aims to reconcile the various estimates and identify reporting gaps to obtain the most accurate total greenhouse gas budget for European countries while minimizing overall uncertainty. Key areas of divergence between sources are agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions at country and sectoral levels.
DSD-Kampala 2023 Climate uncertainty in the Nile Basin - ZarougDeltares
Presentation by Modathir Abdalla Hassan Zaroug (Nile Basin Initiative (NBI)), at the Symposium Models and decision-making in the wake of climate uncertainties, during the Deltares Software Days - Kampala 2023 (DSD-Kampala 2023). Wednesday, 4 October 2023, Kampala, Uganda.
Fortalecimiento de capacidades para la producción, traducción, diseminación y uso efectivo de datos y perspectivas climáticas en el sector agropecuario en la región SICA.
Carlos Navarro-Racines
Evento de socialización de los logros alcanzados por CCAFS en Centroamérica en el marco de la gira del Grupo Técnico de Cambio Climático y Gestión Integral del Riesgo (GTCCGIR) del CAC.
Guatemala, diciembre 1, 2021
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Using well-established empirical and mechanistic models such as Ecocrop, Maxent, DSSAT to assess the impact of climate change on productivity and climate-suitability of crops and production systems.
Overview of the IPCC: its role, mandate, history and the production of the S...ipcc-media
The IPCC was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme to provide comprehensive assessments of the scientific basis of climate change. It produces reports approximately every 6-7 years that inform international climate policy. The Sixth Assessment Cycle will include three main reports from 2021-2023 and special reports on topics like the ocean and land. The IPCC relies on hundreds of scientists to author reports through a consensus-seeking review process.
Fao modelling system for agricultural impacts of climate changeMaroi Tsouli Fathi
The MOSAICC (MOdelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change) system uses an integrated modelling approach to assess the impacts of climate change on agriculture. It includes models for climate, hydrology, crops, forestry, and economic impacts. Climate models are downscaled and bias-corrected to provide climate projections at a high resolution. Hydrology, crop, forestry, and economic models use climate data to project changes in water availability, crop yields, forestry outputs, and economic indicators. Results are made available through a web portal to support climate change impact assessment and adaptation planning.
Mekong ARCC Climate Change and Hydrology Modeling Methods and ResultsMekong ARCC
At the Interim Results Workshop, the Modeling Team presented the climate change and hydrological modeling results for the LMB. The modeling team consists of Mr. Tarek Ketelsen, Mr. Jorma Koponen, Mr. Jeremy Carew-Reid, Mr. Simon Tilleard, Mr. Mai Ky Vinh, and Mr. To Quang Toan.
The performance of portable mid-infrared spectroscopy for the prediction of s...ExternalEvents
This presentation was presented during the 3 Parallel session on Theme 1, Monitoring, mapping, measuring, reporting and verification (MRV) of SOC, of the Global Symposium on Soil Organic Carbon that took place in Rome 21-23 March 2017. The presentation was made by Mr. Martin Soriano-Disla, CSIRO Land and Water - Australia, in FAO Hq, Rome
Overview of the IPCC, its role, mandate, history and the production of the IP...ipcc-media
The IPCC was established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme to provide comprehensive assessments of the scientific basis of climate change. It has produced several assessment reports and special reports that have informed international climate change negotiations and policies. The IPCC follows an intensive review process involving scientists and representatives from governments around the world to produce reports that are neutral and policy-relevant assessments of climate change science and impacts. It is currently producing its Sixth Assessment report to inform the global response to climate change.
Cashew: the winner cash crop in W-Africa under a changing climate
This document summarizes a presentation by researchers from the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) on the potential impacts of climate change on cashew production in West Africa. The researchers used crop modeling to project changes in cashew suitability in Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire under future climate scenarios. The modeling found that suitable areas for cashew production may increase by 2050, suggesting opportunities to expand cashew cultivation. However, constraints like low current productivity and risks of bushfires would need to be addressed for cashew to become a more sustainable crop in the region. The presentation concluded with questions about how this information could inform decisions by
This presentation was delivered at the third Asia-Pacific Forestry Week 2016, in Clark Freeport Zone, Philippines.
The five sub-thematic streams at APFW 2016 included:
Pathways to prosperity: Future trade and markets
Tackling climate change: challenges and opportunities
Serving society: forestry and people
New institutions, new governance
Our green future: green investment and growing our natural assets
Presentation done for the Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science (ICAS) at the University of Leeds, UK, as part of Julian Ramirez-Villegas' PhD work and as a requisite for the PhD transfer.
This document summarizes a presentation on climate data and projections focusing on limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius. It discusses the work of GERICS (the Climate Service Center Germany) in developing solutions for regional climate modeling, impacts analysis, and climate adaptation toolkits. Key points covered include:
- GERICS' interdisciplinary approach to regional climate modeling, impacts assessment, and stakeholder engagement.
- The development of adaptation toolkits for cities, companies, and other sectors to facilitate climate risk assessment and planning.
- An overview of the presentation, covering topics like climate modeling techniques, accessing climate projections data, and visualizing and analyzing climate information.
DSD-Kampala 2023 Modelling the impacts of rising Lake Victoria water levels o...Deltares
Presentation by Seith Mugume (Makerere University) at the Symposium Models and decision-making in the wake of climate uncertainties, during the Deltares Software Days - Kampala 2023 (DSD-Kampala 2023). Wednesday, 4 October 2023, Kampala, Uganda.
1) Models can help assess the effects of management practices on greenhouse gas balances from grasslands over time by accounting for spatial and temporal variations, which makes direct measurement and verification difficult.
2) Models allow evaluation of co-mitigation and adaptation options under current and future climate conditions to future-proof mitigation strategies.
3) Farm-scale models can compare systems and scale results to individual farms by generating emission factors for estimating direct nitrous oxide emissions from grazed pastures.
Ecocrop modeling provides a way to evaluate the climatic suitability of different locations for growing various crops on a monthly basis. It considers temperature and rainfall parameters at each location against the crop's temperature and rainfall requirements. The model calculates temperature and rainfall suitability scores between 0-100% and multiplies them to determine total suitability. It then identifies the highest suitability growing season starting month at each location. The model was developed by FAO and further enhanced by CIAT to provide crop suitability projections. Results from applying it in the Greater Mekong Subregion found decreasing suitability for some crops in many areas by 2050 due to climate change impacts on temperature and rainfall patterns.
eMAST aims to integrate data from TERN and other sources to model ecosystems at all scales in Australia from 2013-2015. This will be done using data assimilation, model evaluation and optimization tools to further ecosystem science and help address questions about topics like carbon, water, climate change, fire, and biodiversity. Key products being delivered include high resolution climate and productivity datasets as well as tools for data analysis, interpolation and modeling. Progress includes the development and delivery of ANUClimate climate datasets and the ePiSaT model for estimating primary productivity across Australia using flux tower and satellite data.
This document discusses the implications of climate change on agriculture and small farmers' livelihoods. Crop prediction models are used to estimate the impact of climate change on the suitability of various crops. Results are then translated to analyze the effects on livelihoods using socioeconomic indicators and econometric models. Participatory workshops are recommended to identify best practices and adaptation strategies. While some crops may lose suitability, climate change also brings new opportunities. Adaptation requires site-specific management and preparing for change.
This document compares greenhouse gas emission estimates for European countries from multiple data sources, including UNFCCC inventories, EDGAR, CAPRI, FAO, and inverse modeling. It finds inconsistencies between sources in activity data and emission factors used. Differences in methodologies used to calculate uncertainties are also identified. The document aims to reconcile the various estimates and identify reporting gaps to obtain the most accurate total greenhouse gas budget for European countries while minimizing overall uncertainty. Key areas of divergence between sources are agricultural methane and nitrous oxide emissions at country and sectoral levels.
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Presentation by Modathir Abdalla Hassan Zaroug (Nile Basin Initiative (NBI)), at the Symposium Models and decision-making in the wake of climate uncertainties, during the Deltares Software Days - Kampala 2023 (DSD-Kampala 2023). Wednesday, 4 October 2023, Kampala, Uganda.
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Fortalecimiento de capacidades para la producción, traducción, diseminación y uso efectivo de datos y perspectivas climáticas en el sector agropecuario en la región SICA.
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1) El documento describe los Servicios Integrados Participativos de Clima para la Agricultura (PICSA), un enfoque para empoderar a los agricultores con información climática y herramientas de toma de decisiones.
2) PICSA se ha implementado en varios países de América Latina con el objetivo de mejorar la resiliencia climática y la seguridad alimentaria.
3) El documento propone fortalecer la cadena de servicios climáticos en Guatemala mediante la capacitación de técnicos, la implementación de PIC
El documento discute los desafíos y oportunidades del cambio climático para la agricultura en Centroamérica. La variabilidad climática afecta entre un 32-39% de la productividad de los cultivos y los sistemas no son resilientes. Se requiere adaptación a diferentes escalas de tiempo, desde días hasta décadas. Existe una brecha entre la información climática y su uso por los agricultores. Los servicios climáticos buscan cerrar esta brecha mediante mejoras en predicciones, empoderamiento e instituciones. Enfoques como las
Servicios climáticos para la agricultura: Incorporando información agroclimática local en la toma de decisiones.
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Instituto Centroamericano de Administración Pública (ICAP)
En el marco del LXIV Foro del Clima de América Central y
el XLII Foro de Aplicaciones de los Pronósticos Climáticos
a la Seguridad Alimentaria y Nutricional
Academia Nacional de Servicios Climáticos - Guatemala
Diplomado en Ciencias del Clima y Servicios Climáticos del Sistema Guatemalteco de Ciencias del Cambio Climatico (SGCCC)
https://sgccc.org.gt/el-sgccc-es-el-anfitrion-del-diplomado-en-ciencias-del-clima-y-servicios-climaticos/
Navarro, C. Modelación climática; Cambio climático y agricultura
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Abril 2021
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Jeferson Rodriguez Espinoza
Alejandra Esquivel
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Are you ready to revolutionize how you handle data? Join us for a webinar where we’ll bring you up to speed with the latest advancements in Generative AI technology and discover how leveraging FME with tools from giants like Google Gemini, Amazon, and Microsoft OpenAI can supercharge your workflow efficiency.
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Guest Speaker Segment with Hannah Barrington: Dive into the world of dynamic real estate marketing with Hannah, the Marketing Manager at Workspace Group. Hear firsthand how their team generates engaging descriptions for thousands of office units by integrating diverse data sources—from PDF floorplans to web pages—using FME transformers, like OpenAIVisionConnector and AnthropicVisionConnector. This use case will show you how GenAI can streamline content creation for marketing across the board.
Ollama Use Case: Learn how Scenario Specialist Dmitri Bagh has utilized Ollama within FME to input data, create custom models, and enhance security protocols. This segment will include demos to illustrate the full capabilities of FME in AI-driven processes.
Custom AI Models: Discover how to leverage FME to build personalized AI models using your data. Whether it’s populating a model with local data for added security or integrating public AI tools, find out how FME facilitates a versatile and secure approach to AI.
We’ll wrap up with a live Q&A session where you can engage with our experts on your specific use cases, and learn more about optimizing your data workflows with AI.
This webinar is ideal for professionals seeking to harness the power of AI within their data management systems while ensuring high levels of customization and security. Whether you're a novice or an expert, gain actionable insights and strategies to elevate your data processes. Join us to see how FME and AI can revolutionize how you work with data!
Removing Uninteresting Bytes in Software FuzzingAftab Hussain
Imagine a world where software fuzzing, the process of mutating bytes in test seeds to uncover hidden and erroneous program behaviors, becomes faster and more effective. A lot depends on the initial seeds, which can significantly dictate the trajectory of a fuzzing campaign, particularly in terms of how long it takes to uncover interesting behaviour in your code. We introduce DIAR, a technique designed to speedup fuzzing campaigns by pinpointing and eliminating those uninteresting bytes in the seeds. Picture this: instead of wasting valuable resources on meaningless mutations in large, bloated seeds, DIAR removes the unnecessary bytes, streamlining the entire process.
In this work, we equipped AFL, a popular fuzzer, with DIAR and examined two critical Linux libraries -- Libxml's xmllint, a tool for parsing xml documents, and Binutil's readelf, an essential debugging and security analysis command-line tool used to display detailed information about ELF (Executable and Linkable Format). Our preliminary results show that AFL+DIAR does not only discover new paths more quickly but also achieves higher coverage overall. This work thus showcases how starting with lean and optimized seeds can lead to faster, more comprehensive fuzzing campaigns -- and DIAR helps you find such seeds.
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Monitoring and Managing Anomaly Detection on OpenShift
Overview
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Key Topics Covered
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11. What is a Jupyter Notebook?
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12. Jupyter Notebooks with Code Examples
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2. International Center for Tropical Agriculture
• CIAT: Part of Consultative Group on
International Agriculture Research
• Mission: To reduce hunger and poverty,
and improve human health in the tropics
through research aimed at increasing the
eco-efficiency of agriculture.
What we do: Site-Specific-Management, Impact monitoring, Market research,
Ecosystem services (DAPA), climate change (CCAFS), Plant breeding (CIAT), …
Project-Team:
Dr. Peter Laderach, A. Eitzinger, A. Quiroga, J. Gordon, A. Pantoja
3. Content
• A: Project background
• B: Research questions
• C: Methodology
• D: Results of analysis in Kenya
– Climate change summary of tea production sites
– Suitability maps of tea production areas
– Environmental factors driving change in suitability
– Potential diversification strategies
• E: Conclusions
4. Project background A
The objectives of this study is
to develop future climate
scenarios indicating the
adaptability/suitability of tea
under changing climatic
conditions for Kenya’s tea
growing zones, and indicating
potentials for alternative crops
suitable under predicted
climate change scenarios.
ETP and GIZ aim to increase Kenyan tea producers’ resilience to climate change
to secure their future livelihoods and make these livelihoods more
environmentally and economically sustainable. In order to achieve this, the two
partners have formed a 3-year Public Private Partnership which will train
approximately 10,000 vulnerable Kenyan farmers on the most appropriate
adaptation techniques
5. Research questions B
• Where will tea grow in the future?
• Where will tea not grow any more?
• Where can tea still grow with adapted mgt?
• What are the decisive factors to manage?
Pics by Neil Palmer (CIAT)
6. Methodology C
• Current climate from historical climate generation
Global circulation models as future climate
Suitability prediction
7. Current climate C
WorldClim (www.worldclim.org) database
(Hijmans et al, 2005)
• Base line for climate change calculations
• Meteorological Stations with data of:
• Worldwide:
precipitation: 47,554
Mean temp.: 24,542
Min/max temp: 14,835
• For Kenya:
Precipitation: 736
Mean temp.: 708
Min/max temp: 61
8. Current climate: Bioclimatic variables C
• Bio1 = Annual mean temperature
• Bio2 = Mean diurnal range (Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp))
• Bio3 = Isothermality (Bio2/Bio7) (* 100)
• Bio4 = Temperature seasonality (standard deviation *100)
• Bio5 = Maximum temperature of warmest month
• Bio6 = Minimum temperature of coldest month
• Bio7 = Temperature Annual Range (Bio5 – Bi06)
• Bio8 = Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter
• Bio9 = Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter
• Bio10 = Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter
• Bio11 = Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter
• Bio12 = Annual Precipitation
• Bio13 = Precipitation of Wettest Month
• Bio14 = Precipitation of Driest Month
• Bio15 = Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation)
• Bio16 = Precipitation of Wettest Quarter
• Bio17 = Precipitation of Driest Quarter
• Bio18 = Precipitation of Warmest Quarter
• Bio19 = Precipitation of Coldest Quarter
9. Future climate C
• Global circulation models (GCM)
Calibrated in the past (using time-series)
and projected to the future
>> UNCERTAINTY
Emission scenarios = Political uncertainty
Global Circulation Models = Scientific uncertainty
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC (http://www.ipcc.ch/)
Fourth Assessment Report, based on the results of 21 global climate models
(GCMs)
10. Future climate: Global circulation models (GCM) C
Model Country Atmosphere Ocean
BCCR-BCM2.0 Norway T63, L31 1.5x0.5, L35
CCCMA-CGCM3.1 (T47) Canada T47 (3.75x3.75), L31 1.85x1.85, L29
CCCMA-CGCM3.1 (T63) Canada T63 (2.8x2.8), L31 1.4x0.94, L29
CNRM-CM3 France T63 (2.8x2.8), L45 1.875x(0.5-2), L31
CSIRO-Mk3.0 Australia T63, L18 1.875x0.84, L31
CSIRO-Mk3.5 Australia T63, L18 1.875x0.84, L31
GFDL-CM2.0 USA 2.5x2.0, L24 1.0x(1/3-1), L50
GFDL-CM2.1 USA 2.5x2.0, L24 1.0x(1/3-1), L50
GISS-AOM USA 4x3, L12 4x3, L16
GISS-MODEL-EH USA 5x4, L20 5x4, L13
GISS-MODEL-ER USA 5x4, L20 5x4, L13
IAP-FGOALS1.0-G China 2.8x2.8, L26 1x1, L16
INGV-ECHAM4 Italy T42, L19 2x(0.5-2), L31
INM-CM3.0 Russia 5x4, L21 2.5x2, L33
IPSL-CM4 France 2.5x3.75, L19 2x(1-2), L30
MIROC3.2-HIRES Japan T106, L56 0.28x0.19, L47
MIROC3.2-MEDRES Japan T42, L20 1.4x(0.5-1.4), L43
MIUB-ECHO-G Germany/Korea T30, L19 T42, L20
MPI-ECHAM5 Germany T63, L32 1x1, L41
MRI-CGCM2.3.2A Japan T42, L30 2.5x(0.5-2.0)
NCAR-CCSM3.0 USA T85L26, 1.4x1.4 1x(0.27-1), L40
NCAR-PCM1 USA T42 (2.8x2.8), L18 1x(0.27-1), L40
UKMO-HADCM3 UK 3.75x2.5, L19 1.25x1.25, L20
UKMO-HADGEM1 UK 1.875x1.25, L38 1.25x1.25, L20
11. Future climate: Downscaling of GCM C
• Delta (Hay et al. 2007)
– Base climate: WORLDCLIM, Used in most studies of CC.
– Take original GCM surfaces (time series)
– Calculate averages for baseline & specific periods
– Calculate anomalies
– Interpolate anomalies
– Add anomalies to WORLDCLIM
12. Suitability prediction: tea C
• Finding the probability distribution of maximum entropy (MAXENT)
Current
climate
Future
climate
Key of investigation
19 bioclim variables
Prediction of
MAXENT is generally considered to Future
be the most accurate model (Elith et Evidence data of evidence of
al. 2006) and was selected for the Tea cultivation tea cultivation
analyses of the present study after
an initial iteration of analysis in the
study region using all four models.
13. Suitability prediction: alternative crops C
• A mechanistic model to spatially predict crop suitability (ECOCROP)
Current Suitability
Future Suitability 2050
Change in Suitability to Future Climate (2050)
Ecocrop Database (FAO)
Precipitation
(Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN)
Ranges: Temperature and precipitation
Calibration with optimal points
Calibrated • Samples (GPS points)
Temperature and • Altitude range
Precipitación • Current Production Areas
Ranges! • Soil types
WorldClim Climate Data
http://worldclim.org
More than 47,000 stations worldwide
Temperature
14. The process C
• Compilation of evidence data (by partner)
• Generation of future climates
• MaxEnt / Ecocrop:
Future suitability predictions for each model
– 3 measurements of uncertainty to exclude outliers:
• agreement among models as percentage of models
predicting changes in the same direction
• mean suitability: upper and lower 95% confidence intervals
(C.I.)
• the coefficient of variation (CV) among models.
– Final run with confirming models
• Prediction of future tea/crop distribution.
• Identification of decisive growth factors.
– Stepwise regression of suitability-shift per data point
15. Climate change summary of all study sites D
• The annual rainfall increases from 1658 millimeters to 1732 millimeters in 2050
• Temperatures increase and the average increase is 2.3 ºC passing through an increment of 1.0 ºC in 2020
• The maximum temperature of the year increases from 26.6°C to 29°C in 2050
• The minimum temperature of the year increases from 8.9°C to 11.1°C in 2050
16. Regional changes in the mean annual precipitation D
• In 2020 the municipalities
Meru and Nithi will have
larger increase in
precipitation
• In 2050 Kisii and Nyamira
will have the largest
increase in precipitation
17. Regional changes in the mean annual temperature D
• The increase by 2020 is
between 0.7 and 0.9 ºC
• The increase by 2050 is
between 2.1 and 2.2 ºC
The mean annual
temperature will increase
progressively
18. Current suitability of tea production areas D
According to the MAXENT model, the most suitable of them are concentrated in
the higher areas of districts: Meru, Embu, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Murangá, Kiambu,
Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Narok, Migori and Homa Bay
19. Future suitability of tea production areas: 2020 D
In 2020 suitable areas start shifting but the average suitability in all districts
remain nearly constant
20. Future suitability of tea production areas: 2050 D
In 2050 tea production according to its climate-suitability is predicted to be more
concentrated in Central Kenya
21. Suitability change of tea production areas D
• Areas near Nandi suitability of tea shows a slight decrease by 2020
• Some areas, especially in Central region and some parts of Rift valley are gaining suitability
• In 2050 tea growing areas decreases quite seriously in the western parts
• Areas around Mount Kenya still remain on high suitability to climate in 2050
• General shift to higher altitudes
• Most significant loss of suitability (up to -40%) can be observed in Nandi district
22. Relation of suitability & altitude D
• With progressive climate change, areas at higher altitudes benefit on tea-suitability
• Optimum tea-producing zone is currently at an altitude between 1500 and 2100 masl
• By 2050:
– suitability will increase to an altitude between 2000 and 2300 masl
– areas at altitudes between 1400 and 2000 masl will suffer the highest decrease in suitability
– areas around 2300 masl the highest increase in suitability
23. Measure of agreement of models D
Measure of agreement of models predicting changes in the same direction as
the average of all models at a given location
Measure of agreement of models predicting changes in the same
direction as the average of all models at a given location
24. Coefficient of variance of bioclimatic variables D
CV for 2020 and 2050 bioclimatic variables ranges between 0 and 15%, even
lower for tea-growing areas and may therefore be accepted as reliable
27. Identification of potential diversification strategies D
Coffee performs similar (even worse) to tea and would not be a
good alternative crop to tea. While on 42% of all tea factory sites
suitability of tea is predicted to be much less for 2050, on 97% of
these sites suitability of coffee will be also much less, for more
than 90% of these sites maize and cabbage will remain constant
and pea will be much more suitable on 97% of this sites. Passion-
fruit will be much more suitable on 51% of this sites and banana
on 14% of these sites more suitable for 2050.
28. 2050 Change of suitability of diversification crops D
Coffee Maize Pea
Cabbage Banana Passion-fruit
29. Conclusions E
• In Kenya the yearly and monthly rainfall will increase and the yearly
and monthly minimum and maximum temperatures will increase by
2020 and progressively increase by 2050.
• The implications are that the distribution of suitability’s within the
current tea-growing areas in Kenya for tea production in general will
decrease quite seriously by 2050.
• The optimum tea-producing zone is currently at an altitude
between 1500 and 2100 masl and will by 2050 increase to an
altitude between 2000 and 2300 masl.
• Compared with today, by 2050 areas at altitudes between 1400 and
2000 masl will suffer the highest decrease in suitability and the
areas around 2300 masl the highest increase in suitability.
• A comparison of potential diversification crops recommended by
the project show that coffee perform similar to tea and would not
be a good alternative crop. For more than 90% of these sites maize
and cabbage will remain constant and pea will be much more
suitable on 97% of this sites. Passion fruit will be much more
suitable on 51% of this sites and banana on 14% of these sites more
suitable for 2050.