Future trends
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This document discusses several issues facing society: 1) Monetary instability and how to prepare for the possibility of financial crisis. 2) Population aging as an unprecedented global phenomenon and how to provide for the elderly. 3) The information revolution and how technology is changing how we spend our time and communicate.
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Future trends
- 1. Monetary Instability The Age Wave How can we prepare for the Climate Change possibility of monetary crisis? The Future How can we resolve the How will society provide the conflict between short-term elderly with the money to financial interests and long- match their longevity? Information Revolution term sustainability? How can we provide a living to additional billions of people when technology makes jobless growth a possibility?
- 2. my parent’s expectations used to be simple “Family” Was responsibility 10 8 6 4 Own Live with family 2 parents Children leave home Partner dies 0 Age 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
- 3. today’s expectations very complicated “Family” Second marriage extended family Was responsibility Relocate Have Contemporary 10 Live with children Relocate a partner Get Divorce Student Live with Travel married 8 Start Parent Relocate parents abroad work Buy dies Live home Relocate Rent with third 6 home Children partner leave home Partner 4 dies Own Live with family 2 parents Children leave home Partner dies 0 Age 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
- 4. Population Ageing • Unprecedented: without parallel in human history—and the twenty-first century will witness even more rapid ageing than did the century just past. • Pervasive: a global phenomenon affecting every man, woman and child—but countries are at very different stages of the process. • Enduring: we will not return to the young populations that our ancestors knew. • Profound. http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/worldageing19502050/
- 5. Information Revolution • 1940’s, Thomas Watson predicted world market for ‘maybe five computers’ • 1975, 50,000 were operating • 1997, >140 million • 1999, >600 million • 2010, >1.8 billion
- 6. Information Revolution We now spend: • 22.7% of our internet time on social networks • 10.2% online gaming • 8.3% emailing • 4.4% on portals • 4% instant messaging Source: Nielsen, August 2010
- 7. Mobile Planet There are: • 5 billion active mobile phone subscribers out there • 4.1 billion actively used mobile telephones • 4 billion text message users, increasing at 19% per annum • 2.2 billion bank accounts in use • 1.6 billion television sets • 1.4 billion email users, increasing at 7% per annum • 1.25 landlines at its peak, as there are now 1.15 billion and falling • 1.2 PCs of any kind
- 8. Killing the Planet? • UK emissions of carbon dioxide currently account for about 2% of the global total • Emissions from transport are increasing – 10% increase nationally since 1990 • Air travel currently accounts for about 6.3% of total carbon dioxide emissions • Each UK resident was responsible for 10.5 tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2007 • The UK is committed to cutting carbon dioxide emissions to 50% below 1990 levels by 2050
- 9. Climate Change • Worldwide, 10 of the hottest years on record have occurred since 1990 (records began in 1861) • Global sea level rose by between 10 and 20 cm during the 20th century • Average yearly temperatures in central England have risen by almost 1°C over the last 100 years • The highest temperature ever recorded in the UK is 38.5°C, on 1st August 2003 in Kent
- 10. Monetary Instability A global money meltdown in 2008 $600 trillion in OTC Derivatives outstanding Lehmans collapsed with $400bn in debts amounting to $10tn in risk $5 trillion is traded in foreign exchange markets every day • 300 times more than the trading volume of all the stockmarkets of the world combined Only 2% of these foreign exchange transactions relate to real goods and services • 98% is purely speculative Cause of the foreign exchange crises in Mexico in 1994-5, Asia in 1997 and Russia in 1998
- 11. • Of the 100 richest economies, 51 are now corporations, e.g. sales by General Motors are greater than GDP of Denmark, or Ford than South Africa • The world’s 200 largest corporations control 28% of the global economy and employ <0.3% of its population to achieve that • The sales of the world’s largest 200 corporations are equivalent to 30% of Global GDP, and are more than the combined GDP of all but the top 9 countries • 33% of global trade is intra-company • American corporations pay less in US taxes than they receive in public subsidies • In 1960, the CEO earned 30 times more than the average worker; today, the CEO earns 200 times more
- 12. The Challenge • 1% of the World Population get 80% of resources • Half of the world’s peoples live on less than $1 a day • 50,000 people die every day due to manmade poverty
- 16. The End of Old Sustainable The Future Social