1) The future is shaped more by our ability to imagine what can be done with new technologies, rather than the technologies themselves. We interpret new things based on our own experiences. 2) Broad-bandwidth thinkers are helping form the future by envisioning possibilities and dragging others along, not by extrapolating trends. This is similar to the Renaissance, fueled by polymaths and craftspeople. 3) Emergent behaviors, reactions to new products/services, will continue playing a big role in shaping the future as communication accelerates. The future remains uncertain.

1. The future
of the future

2. We see things not as
they are, but as we are “The Talmud”
The older and more experienced
we become, the more we
embroider our inner world with
what behavioural psychologists
call ‘theory of mind’ – the sense
that the world is as we see it and
that other people’s perspectives
are often less accurate or even
wilfully perverse.
A couple of years ago, a primary school teacher The answer was startling.
in the Midlands took a typewriter into class.
He let the seven year olds look at it, play with it ‘Cool...a laptop that prints as you write, that you
and generally kick it around. don’t have to plug in’, was the consensus.
At the end of the day, he asked them what they
thought of it. Amusing though this story is, it actually
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3. illustrates beautifully how the future works. Renaissance thing is great, isn’t it?’ No, they
As The Talmud (and a host of others) has had to wait a few years before they could turn to
observed, we have a habit of making sense of ask themselves ‘What the f**k was that?’
the world through our own experiences. In fact,
it’s very difficult not to. If your only experience Virtually everyone in the developed world has
of a portable writing device is a laptop, then direct access to multiple streams of information
a typewriter is a mechanical version of that. and collective understanding that took decades
If virtually everything you use or play with is to form 500 years ago. Now that can take place
powered by batteries, then a ‘self powered’ in months or even weeks.
device is fascinating… possibly even futuristic.
The Renaissance gained traction because
The older and more experienced we become, it had broad-bandwidth thinkers who could
the more we embroider our inner world with integrate the technical possibilities of the time
what behavioural psychologists call ‘theory of into new ideas. They were supported by highly
mind’ – the sense that the world is as we see competent craftsmen – the Guildsmen – who
it and that other people’s perspectives are could make this big picture thinking real.
often less accurate or even wilfully perverse.
Although most of us function reasonably well
within society, we each carry a unique bundle
of mores and agendas that are constantly
challenged by our own insecurity when dealing
with others. We’re constantly recalibrating.
And we’re extremely suggestible, while
remaining mildly suspicious.
As The Talmud (and a host
of others) has observed,we
This makes coming up with new products and have a habit of making sense
services an extremely complex problem. But
when we hit on common ground, by crackey, of the world through our own
we go for it. And if that common ground is new experiences.
common ground, then we go for it big time.
Awareness of any such common ground
comes around much faster than it used to too.
People living in Italy at the beginning of the 16th
Century scarcely went around saying ‘Wow, this
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4. This was all funded by merchants and emergent behaviour – us, basically. We tend to
businesses with very deep pockets (just as the react to the new by finding ways to work with
visionary whiz kids behind Google, Facebook, or against it. Restrict people’s movements and
YouTube, Apple or Microsoft have been funded ease of use with a new application, such as text
by older, richer investors). messaging 15 years ago, and what appears?
And this is happening all over again, under our A new, foreshortened syntax and vocabulary to
very noses. The polymaths and the guilds. cope with it. Provide a product with a keyboard
that makes text easier and what happens? The
But for the first time since the Renaissance (or syntax modifies again, elongating itself back to
certainly since the Industrial Revolution) the something approaching good grammar, while
future is mediated not by technology (because, some of the more novel components remain:
as we’re about to see, we are on the cusp Lol, WTF! etc.
of being able to do just about anything), but
by our ability to imagine what to do with that
technology.
With this come new moral choices and
philosophies. It’s no longer about what we can
do, but what we should do. The early part of the
21st Century ain’t like any other run-of-the-mill
But for the first time since
epoch. This is Renaissance 2. And this time, it’s the Renaissance (or certainly
personal. since the Industrial Revolution)
the future is mediated not by
So where are we in all this? What is the future?
technology (because, as we’re
Basically, the future is being formed by a about to see, we are on the
number of broad-bandwidth thinkers who are cusp of being able to do just
lassoing the present from their vantage point in
the future and dragging the rest of us towards about anything), but by our ability
them. It isn’t born from extrapolating trends or to imagine what to do with that
consumer research, but is largely a self-fulfilling technology.
prophecy being fought here and now, by people
who have started earlier than their competitors.
Interacting closely with these thinkers is
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5. Who invents this stuff? become even more important.
So how do we interpret what’s going to
We do. happen? By looking around us more and
sniffing out the potential, unexpected
Action, as Newton observed, is met by equal coincidences that cause markets and
and opposite reaction. One of my favourite behaviours to ‘flip’ (or ‘tip’ as Malcolm Gladwell
examples of this is the Mosquito, a device would have it). That’s where the Art of the Future
created to annoy and disperse undesirable really lies.
teenagers lurking around public spaces by
issuing a tone too high to be heard by most So let’s look at some stuff you may not have
adults, but within the frequency range of the taken into account yet in your NPD network or
younger ear. innovation ‘thingy’; background stuff that may
well have a profound impact on your business.
Brilliant. As cyberpunk novelist William Gibson remarked
recently, ‘The future’s already here, it just isn’t
So what’s the reaction? very well distributed.’
Some smartarse records this ultrasonic hum
onto a mobile phone and uses it as a ring-tone But buckle-up, Dorothy, because some of this
that can be heard only by young people. In may scare the crap out of you.
the classroom, the teacher is oblivious to the
sound. First, genetics. This one is going to hit every
single one of us very hard. Some of it you’ll like,
Emergent behaviour. Corporate action, user some of it you won’t.
reaction. The wheel goes round.
In front of me, as I write this, is a sliver of glass
So creating the future is a nerve-wracking about 30mm square. On it, you can barely
process. People can’t tell you what they’re make out a series of tiny dots and ridges. But
going to want, really, because they usually don’t if I dropped it under an electron microscope
know. So companies have to get stuff out there something utterly extraordinary would appear:
and wait to see what the world makes of it. No genes.
wonder many businesses look desperately for
‘metrics’ that can raise their hit rate. Genes in serried ranks. Millions of them.
But as the world wags on, and the Your genes. All of them.
communication revolution continues unabated, The entire human genome on a sheet of glass.
the role of emergent behaviour is going to The entire set of instructions for making a
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6. person. So what happens if we actually stop dying?
And these are real genes, not pictures or digital The population goes screaming though the
equivalents. The first one of these cost $26 roof, of course. But who could resist the idea of
million to make two years ago. This one cost immortality, forever young...?
$340. And if everyone looks young, what happens to
beauty? What if everyone assigns themselves
What’s it for?
Well, if you’re in the business of making genes,
or just messing with them, then one of these
puppies comes in real handy. Genes like to
stick to their identical counterparts, like two
halves of a zipper. Tag your new genes with a
dye and expose them to the glass sheet and So creating the future is a nerve-
where the congregate, where they get on with
our genes, they fluoresce. Bingo.
wracking process. People can’t
tell you what they’re going to
Whether you’re in the shampoo business, want, really, because they usually
the beauty business, the food industry or the
government, gene expression is a fundamental don’t know. So companies have
part of the near future. to get stuff out there and wait to
While we’re on biology, what do the jellyfish
see what the world makes of it.
turritopsis nutricula, several lobster species No wonder many businesses
and the Joshua tree have in common? They’re look desperately for ‘metrics’
all potentially immortal. Not just long-lived:
immortal, thanks to unique cell behaviour. that can raise their hit rate. But
And specialists in cell mortality are already as the world wags on, and
suggesting that the first person to live for a
thousand years may already be alive.
the communication revolution
continues unabated, the role of
There’s a real possibility that those of us now emergent behaviour is going to
in our 50s may live to be 150 years old, if the
present rate of genetic development continues.
become even more important.
And it will.
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7. to their ‘perfect age’? In women, on average, machine that worked on ‘neuro fuzzy logic’
this is apparently 22, but maybe we’ll all want to principles. The neural network allowed the
look 17? And after that 13? How about 6? machine to learn; fuzzy logic allowing it to make
decisions based on non-specific data. They
This may sound foolish but, as of early 2010, were anxious because it only needed one
DNA-based cosmeceuticals are only months button. We were delighted. But what caught
away, and with them a vast array of gene- my imagination most was the idea of a washing
specific diagnostics delivering customised machine that learned. Imagine the small ads of
therapies for your genotype in the future. People the Future: Washing Machine for sale / 4 years
are already happy to shoot up on botulism in experience / 30% premium.
the name of youthfulness, or to cut themselves
up for the same reason. Genetically reassigning The washing machine with one button hasn’t
your age will be surely irresistible. happened yet, but it will.
Next up, robotics. But how does all this help you? Unless your
business is run by a visionary autocrat who is
A few years ago, Honda announced that by the one of the elite who make the future, what can
second decade of the 21st Century its primary you do other than hang around until it happens
activity would be in the production of robotic and then catch up as fast as you can?
systems. Not robots in the mould of Marvin
the Paranoid Android, or Robby the Robot
from Forbidden Planet, but ‘technological co- Well, here’s some practical self-help
habitants’ – machines with specific capabilities to tide you over:
that can undertake their jobs autonomously.
1. Plan for Discontinuity
Philips has demonstrated a working concept of Stand where you are and look a short way into
a Fukitorimushi (or ‘wiping up creature’), which the future. Is your product or service likely to be
detects dirt on your work surfaces and then imposed upon by something else? If you’re in
goes about mopping them up. It looks like an the engine lubrication business, what happens
animated pan scourer. Oh, how we laugh. But if electric vehicles become the norm? If you’re
it’s exactly these sorts of menial, singular tasks in the airline business, what happens to your
that we may see being handed over to our business class product if High Definition Video
‘technological co-habitants’ very soon. conferencing becomes easily affordable?
Fifteen years ago, Seymourpowell was asked Gather intelligence on these parallel universes,
by a Japanese company to design a washing so at least you have some idea of what could
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8. take you out in the near future. futures.
2. Understand the Young As Woody Allen observed, the world is run by
When you observe emergent behaviour those who turn up.
amongst young people you are using one of
the only available telescopes that accurately And that could be you.
observes the future. Watch carefully. The future
is actually behind you, if you think about it.
3. Sustainability is the Deck
If you’re planning on continuing to use non-
renewables, like certain plastics and oil-based
products, think again. Sustainability isn’t a
marketing ploy; it’s the basic deck for everything But how does all this help you?
you make and sell in the future. This includes Unless your business is run by
premium and luxury products. Organisations
that don’t meet the standards of the crowd a visionary autocrat who is one
will be strung-up through social networks and of the elite who make the future,
word-of-mouth. It really is a Revolution. what can you do other than hang
around until it happens and then
4. Get out more catch up as fast as you can?
Social networking doesn’t replace physical
contact. In fact, it’s generating new forms of
social groups that didn’t exist before. And as
more of what we do in our offices and homes is
available in the mobile domain, this will increase.
5. Talk to someone who works in the future
The future is not written in the opinions of the
focus group. If you’re serious about leading the
future, spend time with people who are working
on long-term product, service and social To find out more please contact
design@seymourpowell.com
Confidential. © Seymour Powell Limited, 2010. All rights reserved.