Conference speech to EIRMA members at ESOF, Copenhagen, Denmark June 24th 2014

1. How to make
sense of the
external
ecosystem
Presented by:
Dr Michael Jackson
Chairman: Shaping
Tomorrow
Achieving persistent strategic agility, advantage and
resilience through innovation and risk management

2. www.shapingtomorrow.com
About us
“Shaping Tomorrow is one of the top Global 10 Innovation websites” : Adam Bates KPMG May 2014

3. All rights reserved
Changing environment
Source: Emery 1980
Unstable
Stable
Simple Complex
Benign
Passive
Reactive
Turbulent
Benign
Passive
Reactive
Turbulent
Changing environments

4. www.shapingtomorrow.com
Future demand for innovation and risk mgt.
Increasing demand for systematic
anticipation and preparedness
from:
Governments
- Military, Crime, Defence, Food,
Health, Animal health, Science …
Commercials
- Health, Telecoms, Energy …
Not-for-profits
- Health, Water, Science …
A switch from static news gathering
to dynamic intelligence
reconnaissance and limited
analysis to whole system thinking

5. www.shapingtomorrow.com
Systematic foresight
Horizon Scanning and sense-making was a manual process
Continuous
and systematic,
scanning
for ideas and
issues

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Focused scanning
Now becoming automated with human input
Scan organisations,
scanners, rivals,
protesters,
regulators,
search words etc.

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Timelining
Graphical pattern finding

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Modelling, gaming and simulation
Visual dashboards as early warning systems
Balanced scorecards
Partnership approaches
Structured data analytics
r
MMORPG’s e.g. IFTF
Warcraft equivalents
Visokio
Shaping Tomorrow
Southbeach

9. www.shapingtomorrow.com
World data/big data
Rising interest in mixing
large data sets (e.g.
GDP and happiness) to
spot crisis points early
Massive funding for
global intelligence
projects
Data fusion
e.g. GapMinder
Forward indicators e.g.
Shock Index

10. www.shapingtomorrow.com
Predictive analytics
Aims: moving from single keyword to real-time multiple
meta data searches
Scour the web
Extract, analyze, rank
Make it useful
Collaboration
Knowledge management
Search & discovery
Data integration
Big Data uses for Foresight

11. www.shapingtomorrow.com
Content profiling
Filtering Insights and
Trends by user profile:
e.g. industry, interests, expertise
Sentiment analysis
e.g. fear, excitement
Narrative capture
e.g. ideas
Latent Semantic Indexing
e.g. concept searches
Bias is essential to avoid
‘group think’ but being
conscious of bias from the
outset reduces error and
increases understanding

12. www.shapingtomorrow.com
Strategic thinking
Comprehensive,
logical, qualitative
and quantitative
toolkits for,
fast decision making
Analogy | Brainstorm | CLA | Counterpoint | Megatrends | PIR | Red hat |
Redefinition | Starburst | Verge | Communicate | Exaggerate | Inspire |
Leapfrog | Reverse| Tear-down | Thinking Hats | Vision
Continuous planning and acting

13. www.shapingtomorrow.com
Great foresight tools
Parmenides Eidos: visual strategic options analysis
Real-Time Delphi: global opinion studies
Roadmapping Technology: strategic roadmapping software
SciCast: crowdsourced prediction
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses: analyze incomplete or
ambiguous information
Insights Maker: online simulation and modeling
Implications Wheel: group process for discovering and
mapping the implications of change
Coggle: a freeware mind-mapping web application
Kumu: cloud-based visualization platform for mapping systems
and better understanding relationships

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Global solution networks
Foresight communities
Expert solution providers
- Construction, Design, Security …
Free sites | Rapid delivery | Co-creation | Joint research

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Global collaboration
Increasing need for
joined up thinking
between governments ,
academia, NGO’s,
commercial
organisations.
Mobile apps
All channel distribution
Multi-lingual

16. www.shapingtomorrow.com
Gaming & Certification

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Web-based education
Free
Electronic guides/books
- linked to content
Webinars
On-line workshops
…
Revenue
Privacy/Multi-licences
Virtual consultancy/mentoring
Specialist needs
MOOCS - Online degrees …

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Now for the future!
Article and report capture

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Basic auto population

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Advanced auto population

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Background Extraction

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Foresight statements

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Displaying the results

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Search Foresights

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Export Foresights

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Web Summarizer – Tree View
Plus Mind Maps,
Clouds etc.

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Web Summarizer – Summary Report

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Making sense of the future ecosystem
Extra-ordinary value
added
Cloud-based rather than
home grown
Open/closed collaboration
Outsourcing/partnering
Fast action/reaction
Convergence of
innovation, risk and
business and competitive
intelligence systems
From subscription to
consumption economics!!
Machine/human partnership
More automated foresight
Oracle like answers
Organised decision-making
Online learning for all
But, still human
intervention, creativity
and decision-making
for the foreseeable
future
Towards semi-automated sense making – a global brain

29. www.shapingtomorrow.com
Questions?
Mike Jackson: mike.jackson@shapingtomorrow.com
Shaping Tomorrow: www.shapingtomorrow.com
Thanks for listening