1. Artificial Intelligence and the Future:
Promise or Peril?
Silicon Valley Thought Leaders Series
@MarkHolmanATK
#SVThoughtLeaders
2 June 2016

2. Promise
What will the future of Artificial Intelligence hold ?
Perilor
– Ginni Rometty
“In the future, every decision that
mankind makes is going to be informed
by a cognitive system, and our lives will
be better for it”
– Sundar Pichai
“AI can help us in everything -
challenges like climate change
and cancer diagnosis”
– Mark Zuckerberg
“There’s nothing to fear from
AI…Instead, we should hope for the
amazing amount of good it will do in the
world”
– Bill Gates
“I don’t understand why some people
are not concerned”
– Elon Musk
“With artificial intelligence we’re
summoning the demon…[it] could
be our greatest existential threat”
– Stephen Hawking
“Success in creating AI would be the
biggest event in human history…
Unfortunately, it might also be the last”

3. We polled executives on their view of AI’s progression –
Source: A.T. Kearney surveys, (N=80, N=434, N=244)
most are truly optimistic
Promise or Peril? Who will be first to develop
Human Level Intelligence?
Where do you expect the most
significant impact?
70%
11%
19%
Promise Peril Not Sure
32% 31%
19% 18%
Military /
Government
Start-up Large
Corporation
Academia
33%
31%
18% 18%
High tech,
Telcom, Media
Healthcare &
Medicine
Finance &
Banking
Manufacturing

4. Massive AI investment is bringing new capabilities
Over 177 deals in the
last five years
Over $70B in
global investment in AI
Leaders acquiring AI firms
Source: CB Insights, Quid, A.T. Kearney analysis
Watson
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2
5
10 9
15 13
1
2
6
3
4
2
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
M&A
Private
Investment
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

5. What is the essence of Artificial Intelligence?
Human capability continuum Machine capability continuum
"Intelligence is the
ability to learn,
understand and
make judgements
based on reason"
(Cambridge Advance
Learner’s Dictionary)
Source: A.T. Kearney, Intel, Singularity University, Kodak, Canon
VS
Human
Body
Central
nervous
system
Brain
Physical
effectiveness
(sensory input,
robotics)Processing
capability
(Computing,
communication)
Artificial
Intelligence
(Learning algorithm,
reasoning)

6. AI is progressing rapidly – the era of human intelligence is near
• General applications
• Autonomous learning
• Brain-like architecture & early
quantum computing
• Self training by big data & M2M
collaboration Human Intelligence
“Ava” in
‘Ex-
Machina’
Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
• Specific/general applications
• Supervised and unsupervised learning
paradigms
• Nature/inspired architecture
(e.g. genetic algorithms)
• Training by relatively large data sets Machine Learning
Deep Blue
vs
Kasparov
Knowledge-Based
Intelligence
Early expert system
platforms
• Specific applications
• Pre-programmed and rule
based learning paradigm
(if-then reasoning)
• Limited data
Machine Intelligence
(e.g. deep learning)
Google AlphaGo
• Specific/general applications
• Supervised and unsupervised learning
paradigms
• Focus on brain-inspired architecture
• Training by big data
Super-Intelligence
‘Transcendence’
• General applications
• Autonomous exponential learning
• Fully Quantum and brain like architecture
• Self training by big data and AI machine
networks
1970’s 1990’s 2010’s 2030’s 2050’s
Commercial Offerings Current “Press” Future Value

7. The precise impact of AI is unpredictable, but clearly profound –
we forecast 13% of US jobs could be replaced by 2024
Physical Capability
Learning&Intelligence
Level of AI
technology
by 2024
Required skill level rating Learning & Intelligence
share of activities
Work Experience
EducationLevel
High
Low
LowHigh
% of Total
Job Activities+ =
13%
or
19M
US jobs
replaced by AI
Highest share of
“brain” work activities
Analyzed ~800 occupations
along 37 activity archetypes
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics, A.T. Kearney analysis

8. The physical and cognitive requirements will drive replacement
Note: Activities within occupation are averaged along physical and learning capabilities
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics, A.T. Kearney analysis
AIthreshold(t)
Threshold (t)
Administrative
assistants
Artists and
Animators
Sports Athletes
Janitors
Physical Capability
Learning&Intelligence
Stephen Curry
Administrative
assistant
Janitor
Annie Leibovitz

9. Industry Today AI enabled future
Personal
Assistants
• Mobile interactions
managed by smart agents
Automotive
“There will be fewer cars. There will be fewer
accidents. And it will be safer” – Tom Wilson,
CEO Allstate
• Accidents in the US
Healthcare
“AI can detect patterns matching a patient’s
disease progression and recommend up-to-
date, cost-effective treatment plans” – Indiana
University Research
• Treatment costs
AI is transforming diverse applications and industries
-78%
-50%
Source: Transparency market research, Financial Times, The Guardian, Gartner, Indiana University Research, A.T. Kearney analysis
“Over time, the computer itself - whatever its form
factor - will be an intelligent assistant helping you
through your day” – Sundar Pichai, CEO Google
40%
Chat bots Personal assistant
platform
E-commerce
platform
Auto-pilot Fully autonomous Transportation
platform
Health
tracking tools
Healthcare deep-
learning platform
Offerings for specific
categories & diseases

10. • How will AI know ‘right’ from ‘wrong’?
• What rights will AI have?
• Who will have ultimate oversight and accountability of AI?
• Where is the line drawn for scientific research?
• How will we ensure information security with heavy reliance on
integrated data? How will our data be protected?
• How do we ensure the safety of humans in a future that is
integrated with autonomous cars, robots, and intelligent personal
assistants?
• Will companies be legally liable for their products?
• How will we handle surveillance and our own human rights?
• In a world of AI, how will the world economy deal with the displaced
labor force?
Beyond technology, what will it take to get AI to mainstream ?
Ethics
Cybersecurity
Safety
Legal
Regulation
Economic
Key Questions
Source: A.T. Kearney analysis, press releases
Current Initiatives

11. AI should be an essential element of every CEO’s agenda
Top of Mind Topics to Consider
How will Artificial Intelligence change the competitive dynamics of my industry?
Where can we take advantage of AI in our products and services?
Product &
Services
How can we use AI to optimize our own internal capabilities and processes?
Where should we be investing – market intelligence, R&D and/or external investments –
to be prepared for an AI based future?
Operating
Model
Source: A.T. Kearney

12. We believe that AI will have more promise than peril
… Transform companies
Artificial Intelligence will …
… Save lives
… Augment jobs
… Create new products
… Spur innovation
1
2
3
4
5
Source: A.T. Kearney
“We have the opportunity to make
major strides in addressing the grand
challenges of humanity - AI will be
the pivotal technology in achieving
this progress”
– Ray Kurzweil

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written consent. The content compiled in this report is for presentation only and does
not represent the complete findings or total documentation on the topic represented.

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