5. Timeline: Every 20 years,
compute costs are down by 1000x
• Cost of Digital Workers
• Moore’s Law can be thought of as
lowering costs by a factor of a…
• Thousand times lower
in 20 years
• Million times lower
in 40 years
• Billion times lower
in 60 years
• Smarter Tools (Terascale)
• Terascale (2017) = $3K
• Terascale (2020) = ~$1K
• Narrow Worker (Petascale)
• Recognition (Fast)
• Petascale (2040) = ~$1K
• Broad Worker (Exascale)
• Reasoning (Slow)
• Exascale (2060) = ~$1K
59/13/2019 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group
2080204020001960
$1K
$1M
$1B
$1T
206020201980
+/- 10 years
$1
Person Average
Annual Salary
(Living Income)
Super Computer
Cost
Mainframe Cost
Smartphone Cost
T
P
E
T P E
AI Progress on Open Leaderboards
Benchmark Roadmap to solve AI/IA
6. Timeline: Leaderboards FrameworkAI Progress on Open Leaderboards - Benchmark Roadmap
Perceive World Develop Cognition Build Relationships Fill Roles
Pattern
recognition
Video
understanding
Memory Reasoning Social
interactions
Fluent
conversation
Assistant &
Collaborator
Coach &
Mediator
Speech Actions Declarative Deduction Scripts Speech Acts Tasks Institutions
Chime Thumos SQuAD SAT ROC Story ConvAI
Images Context Episodic Induction Plans Intentions Summarization Values
ImageNet VQA DSTC RALI General-AI
Translation Narration Dynamic Abductive Goals Cultures Debate Negotiation
WMT DeepVideo Alexa Prize ICCMA AT
Learning from Labeled Training Data and Searching (Optimization)
Learning by Watching and Reading (Education)
Learning by Doing and being Responsible (Exploration)
2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039
9/13/2019 (c) IBM 2017, Cognitive Opentech Group 6
Which experts would be really surprised if it takes less time… and which experts really surprised if it takes longer?
Approx.
Year
Human
Level ->
+3
7. “The best way to predict the future is to inspire the
next generation of students to build it better”
Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing
Energy Construction ICT Retail
Finance Healthcare Education Government
8. Artificial Leaf
• Daniel Nocera, a professor of energy
science at Harvard who pioneered the
use of artificial photosynthesis, says that
he and his colleague Pamela Silver have
devised a system that completes the
process of making liquid fuel from
sunlight, carbon dioxide, and water. And
they’ve done it at an efficiency of 10
percent, using pure carbon dioxide—in
other words, one-tenth of the energy in
sunlight is captured and turned into fuel.
That is much higher than natural
photosynthesis, which converts about 1
percent of solar energy into the
carbohydrates used by plants, and it
could be a milestone in the shift away
from fossil fuels. The new system is
described in a new paper in Science.
9/13/2019 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 8
9. Food from Air
• Although the technology is in its infancy,
researchers hope the "protein reactor"
could become a household item.
• Juha-Pekka Pitkänen, a scientist at VTT,
said: "In practice, all the raw materials
are available from the air. In the future,
the technology can be transported to,
for instance, deserts and other areas
facing famine.
• "One possible alternative is a home
reactor, a type of domestic appliance
that the consumer can use to produce
the needed protein."
• According to the researchers, the
process of creating food from electricity
can be nearly 10 times as energy
efficient as photosynthesis, the process
used by plants.
9/13/2019 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 9
10. Exoskeletons for Elderly
• A walker is a “very cost-effective”
solution for people with limited
mobility, but “it completely
disempowers, removes dignity,
removes freedom, and causes a
whole host of other psychological
problems,” SRI Ventures president
Manish Kothari says. “Superflex’s
goal is to remove all of those areas
that cause psychological-type
encumbrances and, ultimately,
redignify the individual."
9/13/2019 IBM Code #OpenTechAI 10
11. 10 million minutes of experience
9/13/2019 Understanding Cognitive Systems 11
12. 2 million minutes of experience
9/13/2019 Understanding Cognitive Systems 12
13. Hardware < Software < Data < Experience < Transformation
9/13/2019 Understanding Cognitive Systems 13
Value migrates to transformation – becoming our future selves; people, businesses, nations = service system entities
Pine & Gilmore (1999)
Transformation
Roy et al (2006)
Data
Osati (2014)
Experience
Life Log
22. 22
Productivity
Sustainable
Innovation
Regulatory
Compliance
Measures
of Front Stage (direct customer interactions) and Back Stage (supporting activities)
Components of Businesses, Government Agencies, Non-Profits, etc.
Quality
The world consists of service
systems interacting.
How many times a day/week/month/year
are you a customer/provider
of service?
Courtesy of
Steve Kwan, SJSUAnnotated Service Science References:
http://www.cob.sjsu.edu/ssme/refmenu.asp
Government
Healthcare
Education
Retail
Utility
Travel
Financial
Professional
Entertainment
Transportation
Communication
G2G
G2C
G2B
G2S
B2B
B2C
B2G
B2S
C2G
C2B
C2S
C2C
S2C
S2S
Etc.
26. 26
Changes in the kinds of tasks that people
perform in the workplace
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
Expert Thinking
Complex
Communication
Routine Manual
Routine Cognitive
Non-routine
Manual
Based on U.S. Department of Labor’ Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT)
From Levy and Marnane (2004), Autor, Levy Marnane (2003)
PercentileChange
39. San José State University
39
Developing a
Service Science, Management
and Engineering (SSME)
Program at SJSU
Prepared for discussion at Frontiers in Service Conference
October 4-7th, 2007
Stephen K. Kwan, Ph.D.
Professor, MIS
College of Business
Lou Freund, Ph.D.
Chair, Industrial &
Systems Engineering
College of Engineeringkwan_s@cob.sjsu.edu
408-924-3514
40. San José State University
40
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/edu/grad/articles/brief/gbeng_brief_2.php
41. San José State University
41
http://www.ilo.org/public/english/region/asro/bangkok/public/releases/yr2007/pr07_02sa.htm
42. San José State University
42
Industrial & Systems Engineering 142 / 242
“Service Engineering and Management”
• Introduction to services / experiential economy and role of systems
engineering
• Goal: Introduce students to applications of ISE concepts and
methodologies in the services environment
• Text: Service Management – Fitzsimmons and Fitzsimmons, McGraw-
Hill
• Cases to illustrate concepts and strategies
• Guest speakers
• Teaching experience will form basis for future program design
MBA 297D
“Service Systems Management”
Grad
Undergrad
43. San José State University
43
Integrating the Curriculum with a Shared Service Systems Lab
What are the Characteristics of a Service Systems Lab?
(as compared to a Manufacturing Systems Lab )
44. San José State University
44
What are the Characteristics of a Service Systems Lab?
(Computer Lecture Lab is not a Service Systems Lab )
45. San José State University
45
Service Science Lab Layout
Characteristics of a
Service Science Lab
PhysicalWorld
SimulatedWorld
VirtualWorld
62. 62
Component Business Model to Help Decompose Your Business
Experience and Know-how from Thousands of Client Engagements
70+ maps supporting 17 industries
23 enhanced with key performance
indicators (KPI)
Over 2,000 trained CBM specialists
armed with the CBM tool
30 CBM patents filed
CBM tool license available to clients
Component Business Modeling tool 2.0
Integrates with WebSphere Business Modeler
Presentation to Gartner in October 2007, by R. Leblanc
63. 63
Integrating Component Business Models with Industry
Process Models
+ =
IBM is bringing together its Business Process Management Center of
Excellence (BPM CoE), IBM Research, and the Global Business Solution
Center (GBSC) to map Component Business Models (CBM) to Industry
Process Models
Component Business
Models (CBM) and Tool
Industry Process Models in
WBM, built by BPM CoE,
leveraging APQC’s Process
Classification Framework
Result: business transformation
engagements delivered more quickly,
through more industry-specific
insights and more powerful CBM Tool
Presentation to Forrester in November 2007, by T. Rosamilia
64. 64
Creating New Industries
• “History teaches us that we have hugely underestimated capacity to create
new industries and recreate existing ones. In fact, the half century old
Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system published by the US Census
was replaced in 1997 by the North American Industry Classification Standard
(NAICS) system. The new system expanded the ten SIC industry sectors
into twenty sectors to reflect the emerging realities of new industry territories.
The services sector under the old system, for example, is now expanded into
seven business sectors ranging from information to healthcare and social
assistance.”
• Kim, W. Chan and Renee Mauborgne (2005) Blue Ocean Strategy: How to Create Uncontested Market Space and
Make the Competition Irrelevant. Harvard Business School Press. Boston, MA.
110. SSME: Service Science, Management, and Engineering
Engineering Service Science | Teleconference | November 6,, 2007
Service Science, Management, and Engineering (SSME):
A Next Frontier in Education,
Employment, Innovation, and
Economic Growth
Presented by Dr. Jim Spohrer
Director, Service Research
IBM Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA
spohrer@us.ibm.com