This document summarizes the future prospects for solar power in the United Kingdom across three markets: large-scale solar farms, commercial rooftop solar, and residential rooftop solar. It finds that all three solar markets could be economic without government support within the next decade as solar costs continue to fall rapidly. Residential solar with battery storage may achieve payback periods of less than 10 years by 2025, driving widespread adoption. However, integrating high levels of variable solar power will involve some grid costs such as more flexible power scheduling and storage options that need to be weighed against environmental and energy security benefits.
The document discusses the emergence of hybrid renewable energy systems as solar power becomes more cost competitive with wind. Hybrid systems that combine solar, wind, and energy storage are positioned to lead the scaling up of renewable electricity generation due to improved reliability and cost savings. Demonstration projects around the world are testing hybrid systems, with examples including large solar plants integrated with battery storage, wind farms with battery storage, and solar-wind hybrid plants. Hybrid systems offer advantages over traditional renewable plants like lower generation costs, higher reliability, and increased operational flexibility.
EU Basks in Solar Glory - UK and Germany Energy Breaks Records!Hope Small
Not what you would call the sunniest countries!Britain and Germany have broken records for generating
solar electricity in the last few weeks, according to new industry figures.
Germany generated over half its electricity demand from solar for the first time ever on 9 June, and
the UK, basking in the sunniest weather of summer during the longest days of the year, nearly doubled
its 2013 peak solar power output at the solstice weekend.
France, Italy, Denmark and other countries are also believed to have generated record amounts in
June.
Source: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jun/23/uk-and-germany-break-solar-power-records
The document proposes a methodology to design an efficient hybrid system for electricity production from renewable energy sources. The methodology involves calculating the required photovoltaic and wind areas to meet monthly demand, sizing the equipment based on annual averages and standard deviations, selecting standard-sized PV modules and wind turbines, and optimizing the system design by minimizing net present value costs for different PV-wind compositions.
Germany’s success and failure that japan should learn fromKazuo Ishikawa
Germany has made progress expanding renewable energy but also faced challenges. The Energiewende movement increased renewable energy but also costs. Germany's transition from feed-in tariffs to auctions and plans to phase out nuclear power by 2022 have been ambitious but difficult. High energy costs threaten German industry competitiveness compared to nuclear power in France. Germany must still improve its electricity grid and find solutions to integrate renewable energy while ensuring stable, affordable power.
Executive summary for Last Chance Saloon for CSP (Concentrated Solar Power)Simon Thompson
This is the executive summary for "Last Chance Saloon for Gen 3 CSP" which is a report and forecast from Rethink Energy.
It’s about the global Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) business which, although small compared to photovoltaic or wind power, will be a $10 billion global industry by 2030. How so?
Previous CSP marquee projects such as the “tower power” plants of the Mojave Desert have proved to be expensive and R&D-hungry. Although impressive, they’ve tarnished the sector and in recent years investment has gone elsewhere.
It means that CSP has effectively lain moribund for a decade.
But in recent years a new wave of technology-driven CSP companies have brought a swathe of minor innovations, improvements on efficiency and cheaper equipment to the market.
CSP can now provide temperatures of 1,000 degrees Celsius, enabling the technology to play a role in the decarbonization of the cement, steelmaking, and mining industries. And in China there are plans to use CSP on the power grid as “peak-shaving” energy storage.
Does this mean that this 3rd generation of CSP activity will lead to profitable returns? What are the new technologies and who are the players? And what will be the impact of the global demand for hydrogen on CSP?
The answer to these questions and more can be found in Last Chance Saloon for Gen 3 CSP in this 30-page report, illustrated with graphs and accompanied by an Excel spreadsheet with projections.
Check out
https://rethinkresearch.biz/reports-category/rethink-energy-research/
for more details about this forecast and the Rethink Energy service
The document proposes a Global Apollo Program to combat climate change through developing clean energy technologies. It notes that current commitments will not limit global warming to under 2°C, and renewable energy research and development (RD&D) is underfunded. The program proposes coordinating international RD&D efforts and spending 0.02% of GDP annually on priority areas like solar energy, electricity storage, and transmission to drive innovation and reduce costs, with a goal of making renewable energy cheaper than coal by 2020-2025. It aims to build on models like the semiconductor industry roadmap to accelerate progress through international collaboration.
The document discusses the emergence of hybrid renewable energy systems as solar power becomes more cost competitive with wind. Hybrid systems that combine solar, wind, and energy storage are positioned to lead the scaling up of renewable electricity generation due to improved reliability and cost savings. Demonstration projects around the world are testing hybrid systems, with examples including large solar plants integrated with battery storage, wind farms with battery storage, and solar-wind hybrid plants. Hybrid systems offer advantages over traditional renewable plants like lower generation costs, higher reliability, and increased operational flexibility.
EU Basks in Solar Glory - UK and Germany Energy Breaks Records!Hope Small
Not what you would call the sunniest countries!Britain and Germany have broken records for generating
solar electricity in the last few weeks, according to new industry figures.
Germany generated over half its electricity demand from solar for the first time ever on 9 June, and
the UK, basking in the sunniest weather of summer during the longest days of the year, nearly doubled
its 2013 peak solar power output at the solstice weekend.
France, Italy, Denmark and other countries are also believed to have generated record amounts in
June.
Source: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jun/23/uk-and-germany-break-solar-power-records
The document proposes a methodology to design an efficient hybrid system for electricity production from renewable energy sources. The methodology involves calculating the required photovoltaic and wind areas to meet monthly demand, sizing the equipment based on annual averages and standard deviations, selecting standard-sized PV modules and wind turbines, and optimizing the system design by minimizing net present value costs for different PV-wind compositions.
Germany’s success and failure that japan should learn fromKazuo Ishikawa
Germany has made progress expanding renewable energy but also faced challenges. The Energiewende movement increased renewable energy but also costs. Germany's transition from feed-in tariffs to auctions and plans to phase out nuclear power by 2022 have been ambitious but difficult. High energy costs threaten German industry competitiveness compared to nuclear power in France. Germany must still improve its electricity grid and find solutions to integrate renewable energy while ensuring stable, affordable power.
Executive summary for Last Chance Saloon for CSP (Concentrated Solar Power)Simon Thompson
This is the executive summary for "Last Chance Saloon for Gen 3 CSP" which is a report and forecast from Rethink Energy.
It’s about the global Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) business which, although small compared to photovoltaic or wind power, will be a $10 billion global industry by 2030. How so?
Previous CSP marquee projects such as the “tower power” plants of the Mojave Desert have proved to be expensive and R&D-hungry. Although impressive, they’ve tarnished the sector and in recent years investment has gone elsewhere.
It means that CSP has effectively lain moribund for a decade.
But in recent years a new wave of technology-driven CSP companies have brought a swathe of minor innovations, improvements on efficiency and cheaper equipment to the market.
CSP can now provide temperatures of 1,000 degrees Celsius, enabling the technology to play a role in the decarbonization of the cement, steelmaking, and mining industries. And in China there are plans to use CSP on the power grid as “peak-shaving” energy storage.
Does this mean that this 3rd generation of CSP activity will lead to profitable returns? What are the new technologies and who are the players? And what will be the impact of the global demand for hydrogen on CSP?
The answer to these questions and more can be found in Last Chance Saloon for Gen 3 CSP in this 30-page report, illustrated with graphs and accompanied by an Excel spreadsheet with projections.
Check out
https://rethinkresearch.biz/reports-category/rethink-energy-research/
for more details about this forecast and the Rethink Energy service
The document proposes a Global Apollo Program to combat climate change through developing clean energy technologies. It notes that current commitments will not limit global warming to under 2°C, and renewable energy research and development (RD&D) is underfunded. The program proposes coordinating international RD&D efforts and spending 0.02% of GDP annually on priority areas like solar energy, electricity storage, and transmission to drive innovation and reduce costs, with a goal of making renewable energy cheaper than coal by 2020-2025. It aims to build on models like the semiconductor industry roadmap to accelerate progress through international collaboration.
Scott Sklar, President of the Stella Group and former Executive Director of the Solar Energy Industries Association, presented on April 19, 2010 at the GW Solar Institute Second Annual Symposium. more information at http://solar.gwu.edu/Symposium.html
The document discusses the potential for renewable energy sources in the UK, including offshore wind, tidal, wave and solar power. It notes that the UK has excellent renewable energy resources and could potentially meet 53-67% of its electricity needs from renewables by 2050. Large-scale renewable projects being explored include tidal barrages and tidal lagoons. Investing in renewable technology and improving energy efficiency could create many new green jobs in the UK.
The document discusses the growing size and scale of photovoltaic power plants. Large-scale PV plants are now reaching dimensions similar to conventional power plants, with some solar parks exceeding 100 MW in capacity. The world's largest solar power plant under construction in 2015 will have a 579 MW capacity. PV outputs are achieving scales equal to coal power stations, and some propose PV plants exceeding 1 GW in Asia. Large-scale PV plants are becoming an important long-term investment with relatively low risk due to stable electricity generation costs and revenue from government incentives.
The document discusses Germany's transition to renewable energy, known as the Energiewende. It provides a brief history of the Energiewende beginning in the 1970s in response to the oil crisis. Key policies that have accelerated the transition include the Renewable Energy Sources Act, laws phasing out nuclear power by 2022, and amendments expanding the energy grid. The document outlines Germany's goals of meeting 30% of energy needs from renewables by 2020, 50% by 2030, 65% by 2040, and 80% by 2050. It also notes the substantial increase in renewable energy capacity and falling costs of renewable technologies.
The New Role of Renewable Energy Systems In Developing GCC Electricity MarketCSCJournals
Due to rising and fluctuating oil prices, the author proposes greater utilization of solar and renewable energy systems in GCC countries. Specifically, the large investments in real estate could support infrastructure for roof-mounted solar panels, supplying some electricity demands and creating a circular power distribution network. New regulations would be needed to integrate these systems and provide incentives for homeowners, while also creating jobs and reducing environmental impacts. Overall, the rising costs of oil and falling prices of solar collection systems indicate renewable energy can increasingly compete with conventional sources in the GCC region.
World energy demand is projected to increase 45% by 2030, with coal accounting for over a third of the rise. This level of growth in coal is unsustainable. Turkey's current energy profile relies heavily on thermal sources like coal, gas, and oil to generate electricity. However, Turkey has abundant renewable resources like solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal. The cost of solar power is decreasing and it is projected to reach grid parity within a few years without subsidies. For Turkey to meet its growing energy needs sustainably, it will need to incentivize investment in renewable sources like solar to take advantage of its resources.
Solar thermal power plants concentrate solar energy using mirrors onto absorbers to heat a working fluid. This heated fluid can then power a turbine like in a conventional power plant. Three main technologies exist: parabolic troughs, central receivers (towers), and parabolic dishes. Parabolic troughs are the most mature with over 350 MW of commercial plants built in California in the 1980s. The document discusses the potential, achievements and barriers of solar thermal power, particularly in Europe, with a goal of deploying over 7 GW by 2015 to reduce CO2 emissions. Research aims to further reduce costs to make solar competitive with fossil fuels.
Renewable Energy A Major Opportunity Solar Energy In TurkeyPARIS
Renewable Energy: A Major Opportunity
Solar Energy in Turkey by Ulrich Zachau, Country Director of The World Bank Turkey, published in January 23, 2009 within the conference of the International Solar Energy Arena –STEAM.
Myths and Facts about Germany's Energy TransitionClimateCourse
The document summarizes myths and facts about renewable energy and Germany's "Energy Transition". Some of the key myths addressed include:
1) Renewable energy is to blame for rising electricity prices. The facts show only 1/3 of price increases since 2000 are due to renewables, while most are from conventional generation and utility profits.
2) The high cost of renewables is driving up the EEG surcharge. However, subsidies have fallen for solar and wind, and surcharges are inflated by exemptions for industry and subsidies lowering wholesale prices.
3) The energy transition will cause economic difficulties. But renewable investment has created jobs and opportunities in manufacturing, and falling fossil fuel imports benefit the economy.
The role of auctions in the energy transitionenergydialog
1. Auctions are increasingly being used globally as a renewable energy policy tool to aid the energy transition away from conventional sources towards renewable sources like solar and wind.
2. The benefits of limiting global warming to below 2°C, such as improved health and reduced costs from externalities, outweigh the incremental costs of transitioning to renewable energy by 2 to 5 times by 2050.
3. Auctions have helped drive down prices of solar and wind energy significantly, with average solar prices falling from $250/MWh in 2010 to $50/MWh in 2016 through competition, and average wind prices falling from $80/MWh to $40/MWh over the same period.
The document discusses the impact of UK government subsidy cuts on the domestic solar PV industry. It finds that subsidy cuts led to a 92% drop in domestic solar installations in February 2016 compared to the previous year. However, it also argues that solar PV remains an attractive investment for UK homes as electricity prices rise and solar panel costs continue to fall. While initial panic followed the subsidy cuts, solar PV is not expected to disappear from the UK domestic market and clean energy production is predicted to continue accelerating globally.
Presentation of Japan Energy Transition from mid 20th century to present time. This presentation shows fossil energy to nuclear and finally renewable energy usages in Japan.
Miro Zeman - Department of Electrical Sustainable EnergyDutch Power
This document discusses future sustainable and intelligent electrical energy systems. It describes the transition towards renewable energy sources and smart grids to improve efficiency and integrate renewable technologies. The key drivers of this energy transition include EU climate targets for 2020 and the 2015 Paris agreement. Research at TU Delft's Electrical Sustainable Energy department takes a multi-disciplinary approach across technical, economic and social aspects to help develop future sustainable electricity systems.
The sEEnergies project aims to operationalize the energy efficiency first principle (EEFP) both qualitatively and quantitatively. It will develop a decision support tool combining sector-specific energy demand models to analyze EE potentials from an energy systems perspective. Bottom-up models of buildings, transport, industry and grids will provide cost curves and potentials for EE measures. Scenarios from the EU's "A Clean Planet for All" will be used as common references. Energy system modelling will assess EEFP impacts and enable scenarios assessing synergies. A spatial model will map supply and demand and efficiency potentials. Heat Roadmap Europe provides recommendations including prioritizing savings over supply, utilizing excess heat and renewable energy in district heating, and establishing
Crown eco capital management/Renewable Energy: The Vision And A Dose Of Reali...Emilio Deiryme
In recent years, there has been more and more talk of a transition to renewable energy on the grounds of climate change, and an increasing range of public policies designed to move in this direction. Not only do advocates envisage, and suggest to custodians of the public purse, a future of 100% renewable energy, but they suggest that this can be achieved very rapidly, in perhaps a decade or two, if sufficient political will can be summoned. See for instance this 2009 Plan to Power 100 Percent of the Planet with Renewables:
2019 was the strongest growth year for solar in Europe since 2010, with more new solar capacity added this year than any other power generation technology. Increasing by more than 100% over the past year, solar growth in the European Union has outpaced many of the leading solar regions worldwide. Our first EU Market Outlook for Solar Power 2019-2023 provides details on what factors we expect to foster a European solar renaissance for the coming decade and beyond.
WIND POWER IS A PROVEN SOURCE FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY.
WIND TURBINE CAPACITY APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED A LIMIT.
THIS PAPER PRESENTS INNOVATIONS TO ELIMINATE THAT LIMIT.
The paper shows that existing high efficiency wind turbine performance can be marginally improved, but most significantly, CAPEX and OPEX can be be reduced by 25 to 50%.
Discussion welcomed, llstewart.h2goes.com
Solar Electrification: Solutions for a decarbonised energy systemSolarPower Europe
This report illustrates the multifaceted benefits of solar-based electrification, revealing the potential of solar electricity to power transport, agriculture, smart buildings, and difficult-to-decarbonise industries.
A Distinctive Analysis between Distributed and Centralized Power Generationpaperpublications3
Abstract: The role of Distributed Generation (DG) is ever increasingly being recognized as a supplement and an alternative to large conventional Centralized Generation (CG). Besides, there is also a debate regarding the genuine prospects of DG; always prevailed between industry stakeholders and other interest groups. Within the scope of this review, a comparative study of CG and DG has been presented. In this report, a broad spectrum of issues is being considered to depict the paradigm, drives, shortcomings and future challenges for CG and DG.
Scott Sklar, President of the Stella Group and former Executive Director of the Solar Energy Industries Association, presented on April 19, 2010 at the GW Solar Institute Second Annual Symposium. more information at http://solar.gwu.edu/Symposium.html
The document discusses the potential for renewable energy sources in the UK, including offshore wind, tidal, wave and solar power. It notes that the UK has excellent renewable energy resources and could potentially meet 53-67% of its electricity needs from renewables by 2050. Large-scale renewable projects being explored include tidal barrages and tidal lagoons. Investing in renewable technology and improving energy efficiency could create many new green jobs in the UK.
The document discusses the growing size and scale of photovoltaic power plants. Large-scale PV plants are now reaching dimensions similar to conventional power plants, with some solar parks exceeding 100 MW in capacity. The world's largest solar power plant under construction in 2015 will have a 579 MW capacity. PV outputs are achieving scales equal to coal power stations, and some propose PV plants exceeding 1 GW in Asia. Large-scale PV plants are becoming an important long-term investment with relatively low risk due to stable electricity generation costs and revenue from government incentives.
The document discusses Germany's transition to renewable energy, known as the Energiewende. It provides a brief history of the Energiewende beginning in the 1970s in response to the oil crisis. Key policies that have accelerated the transition include the Renewable Energy Sources Act, laws phasing out nuclear power by 2022, and amendments expanding the energy grid. The document outlines Germany's goals of meeting 30% of energy needs from renewables by 2020, 50% by 2030, 65% by 2040, and 80% by 2050. It also notes the substantial increase in renewable energy capacity and falling costs of renewable technologies.
The New Role of Renewable Energy Systems In Developing GCC Electricity MarketCSCJournals
Due to rising and fluctuating oil prices, the author proposes greater utilization of solar and renewable energy systems in GCC countries. Specifically, the large investments in real estate could support infrastructure for roof-mounted solar panels, supplying some electricity demands and creating a circular power distribution network. New regulations would be needed to integrate these systems and provide incentives for homeowners, while also creating jobs and reducing environmental impacts. Overall, the rising costs of oil and falling prices of solar collection systems indicate renewable energy can increasingly compete with conventional sources in the GCC region.
World energy demand is projected to increase 45% by 2030, with coal accounting for over a third of the rise. This level of growth in coal is unsustainable. Turkey's current energy profile relies heavily on thermal sources like coal, gas, and oil to generate electricity. However, Turkey has abundant renewable resources like solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal. The cost of solar power is decreasing and it is projected to reach grid parity within a few years without subsidies. For Turkey to meet its growing energy needs sustainably, it will need to incentivize investment in renewable sources like solar to take advantage of its resources.
Solar thermal power plants concentrate solar energy using mirrors onto absorbers to heat a working fluid. This heated fluid can then power a turbine like in a conventional power plant. Three main technologies exist: parabolic troughs, central receivers (towers), and parabolic dishes. Parabolic troughs are the most mature with over 350 MW of commercial plants built in California in the 1980s. The document discusses the potential, achievements and barriers of solar thermal power, particularly in Europe, with a goal of deploying over 7 GW by 2015 to reduce CO2 emissions. Research aims to further reduce costs to make solar competitive with fossil fuels.
Renewable Energy A Major Opportunity Solar Energy In TurkeyPARIS
Renewable Energy: A Major Opportunity
Solar Energy in Turkey by Ulrich Zachau, Country Director of The World Bank Turkey, published in January 23, 2009 within the conference of the International Solar Energy Arena –STEAM.
Myths and Facts about Germany's Energy TransitionClimateCourse
The document summarizes myths and facts about renewable energy and Germany's "Energy Transition". Some of the key myths addressed include:
1) Renewable energy is to blame for rising electricity prices. The facts show only 1/3 of price increases since 2000 are due to renewables, while most are from conventional generation and utility profits.
2) The high cost of renewables is driving up the EEG surcharge. However, subsidies have fallen for solar and wind, and surcharges are inflated by exemptions for industry and subsidies lowering wholesale prices.
3) The energy transition will cause economic difficulties. But renewable investment has created jobs and opportunities in manufacturing, and falling fossil fuel imports benefit the economy.
The role of auctions in the energy transitionenergydialog
1. Auctions are increasingly being used globally as a renewable energy policy tool to aid the energy transition away from conventional sources towards renewable sources like solar and wind.
2. The benefits of limiting global warming to below 2°C, such as improved health and reduced costs from externalities, outweigh the incremental costs of transitioning to renewable energy by 2 to 5 times by 2050.
3. Auctions have helped drive down prices of solar and wind energy significantly, with average solar prices falling from $250/MWh in 2010 to $50/MWh in 2016 through competition, and average wind prices falling from $80/MWh to $40/MWh over the same period.
The document discusses the impact of UK government subsidy cuts on the domestic solar PV industry. It finds that subsidy cuts led to a 92% drop in domestic solar installations in February 2016 compared to the previous year. However, it also argues that solar PV remains an attractive investment for UK homes as electricity prices rise and solar panel costs continue to fall. While initial panic followed the subsidy cuts, solar PV is not expected to disappear from the UK domestic market and clean energy production is predicted to continue accelerating globally.
Presentation of Japan Energy Transition from mid 20th century to present time. This presentation shows fossil energy to nuclear and finally renewable energy usages in Japan.
Miro Zeman - Department of Electrical Sustainable EnergyDutch Power
This document discusses future sustainable and intelligent electrical energy systems. It describes the transition towards renewable energy sources and smart grids to improve efficiency and integrate renewable technologies. The key drivers of this energy transition include EU climate targets for 2020 and the 2015 Paris agreement. Research at TU Delft's Electrical Sustainable Energy department takes a multi-disciplinary approach across technical, economic and social aspects to help develop future sustainable electricity systems.
The sEEnergies project aims to operationalize the energy efficiency first principle (EEFP) both qualitatively and quantitatively. It will develop a decision support tool combining sector-specific energy demand models to analyze EE potentials from an energy systems perspective. Bottom-up models of buildings, transport, industry and grids will provide cost curves and potentials for EE measures. Scenarios from the EU's "A Clean Planet for All" will be used as common references. Energy system modelling will assess EEFP impacts and enable scenarios assessing synergies. A spatial model will map supply and demand and efficiency potentials. Heat Roadmap Europe provides recommendations including prioritizing savings over supply, utilizing excess heat and renewable energy in district heating, and establishing
Crown eco capital management/Renewable Energy: The Vision And A Dose Of Reali...Emilio Deiryme
In recent years, there has been more and more talk of a transition to renewable energy on the grounds of climate change, and an increasing range of public policies designed to move in this direction. Not only do advocates envisage, and suggest to custodians of the public purse, a future of 100% renewable energy, but they suggest that this can be achieved very rapidly, in perhaps a decade or two, if sufficient political will can be summoned. See for instance this 2009 Plan to Power 100 Percent of the Planet with Renewables:
2019 was the strongest growth year for solar in Europe since 2010, with more new solar capacity added this year than any other power generation technology. Increasing by more than 100% over the past year, solar growth in the European Union has outpaced many of the leading solar regions worldwide. Our first EU Market Outlook for Solar Power 2019-2023 provides details on what factors we expect to foster a European solar renaissance for the coming decade and beyond.
WIND POWER IS A PROVEN SOURCE FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY.
WIND TURBINE CAPACITY APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED A LIMIT.
THIS PAPER PRESENTS INNOVATIONS TO ELIMINATE THAT LIMIT.
The paper shows that existing high efficiency wind turbine performance can be marginally improved, but most significantly, CAPEX and OPEX can be be reduced by 25 to 50%.
Discussion welcomed, llstewart.h2goes.com
Solar Electrification: Solutions for a decarbonised energy systemSolarPower Europe
This report illustrates the multifaceted benefits of solar-based electrification, revealing the potential of solar electricity to power transport, agriculture, smart buildings, and difficult-to-decarbonise industries.
A Distinctive Analysis between Distributed and Centralized Power Generationpaperpublications3
Abstract: The role of Distributed Generation (DG) is ever increasingly being recognized as a supplement and an alternative to large conventional Centralized Generation (CG). Besides, there is also a debate regarding the genuine prospects of DG; always prevailed between industry stakeholders and other interest groups. Within the scope of this review, a comparative study of CG and DG has been presented. In this report, a broad spectrum of issues is being considered to depict the paradigm, drives, shortcomings and future challenges for CG and DG.
This document provides a summary of a report on the economic impacts of Germany's promotion of renewable energies. It finds that Germany's feed-in tariff subsidy scheme has failed to ensure a cost-effective introduction of renewables. The net costs of subsidies for solar and wind energy between 2000-2010 are estimated to be over 70 billion euros, with consumer electricity prices increasing by 7.5% on average. Subsidies for solar in particular exceed the social costs of carbon emissions reductions through other means by over 50 times. While renewable capacity and production have increased, the policy lacks benefits for climate change, employment, energy security, or innovation.
Our latest Point of View report explores when grid parity for solar and wind might happen and what the implications could be. Grid parity occurs where emerging technologies such as wind and solar produce electricity at the same levelised cost as buying power from the grid.
It has long been considered the ‘holy grail’ for renewables as it will usher in a new era of unsubsidised renewables where market forces, not subsidies, would drive large scale deployment. The revenues of any investment now undertaken with a defined economic life (e.g. 30 year) will be affected by the build of unsubsidised renewables (as typical subsidy regimes are 10-20 years in duration).
As a result, investors must ensure their revenue projections post-subsidy period take into account the impact of increasing amounts of competing (unsubsidised) renewables – which will act to lower their capture prices and revenue post-subsidy. If they don’t take this into account, they risk overestimating the long-term profitability of projects built at the moment.
With a focus on Europe, the analysis has been conducted by Poyry’s state-of-the-art electricity model BID3. The report defines grid parity, explores where and when it might happen first and the implication of it being reached.
The document is a newsletter discussing wind power in Ireland. It summarizes that wind power can provide up to 50% of Ireland's energy on windy days, with a peak of 65.7%. The biggest criticism of wind power is that it requires backup capacity, but the document explains that backup is mostly obtained from already running power stations. The document also discusses how Tesla batteries could help reduce capacity charges for sites with varying power loads, and how windy weather in July helped lower Irish wholesale electricity prices that week.
Photovoltaics is the technology that converts sunlight directly into electricity using solar cells. PV production has been growing dramatically in recent years due to increasing demand for clean energy. In 2008, global PV installations reached 15.2 gigawatts, a 94% annual increase. Most PV systems are connected to the electric grid and provide power to homes and commercial buildings, though some off-grid systems power remote areas. Government incentives have supported the expansion of solar power in many countries.
The document discusses the history of solar power usage and development in Germany. It describes how ancient Greeks and Romans began utilizing passive solar energy in their architecture. It then outlines Germany's rise as a global leader in solar photovoltaic capacity and industry due to supportive policies like feed-in tariffs introduced in the 1990s and 2000s. Germany's renewable energy act and energy saving ordinances promoted solar adoption. However, high costs remain a challenge as Germany aims to generate 20% of its electricity from renewables.
The document discusses the UK's commitment to increase renewable energy generation to 30% by 2020, with a focus on wind power. Significant challenges include dealing with wind's unpredictability, constructing and maintaining offshore wind turbines up to 200 miles from land, and installing new turbines at a rate of over one per day for a decade. Offshore wind is growing rapidly but integrating intermittent wind power at large scales will require solutions to balance supply and demand.
Objections to Alberta School Boards Commodities Purchasing Consortium intent to build a $160 million purpose-built wind farm in concert with BluEarth Renewables.
From Brussels to Paris and Beyond - ON Energy Report November '15MSL
MSLGROUP's latest edition of ON Energy Report looks at the evolving European Energy landscape in the context of the forthcoming jamboree that is COP21. With carbon reduction at the top of the agenda, we take a look at some of the challenges and opportunities that we face, and some of the communications needs that the industry has to grapple with.
For future updates, please contact Nick Bastin, Partner, CNC and Head of MSLGROUP’s EMEA Energy Practice at nick.bastin@cnc-communications.com.
Do share your queries/feedback with our team at @CNC_comms or reach out to us on twitter @msl_group.
This presentation summarizes energy trends in the European Union. It is presented by three specialists on energy in the EU: Antonio Merola on EU energy trends and policy, Khaldon Evans on renewable energy, and Christopher Lipp on nuclear power in France and Germany. The presentation covers: [1] an overview of nuclear power sources in different EU countries, focusing on the divergent approaches of France, which relies heavily on nuclear power, and Germany, which is phasing it out; [2] factors influencing decision making around energy sources; and [3] shifts toward renewable wind and solar power in the EU and factors driving adoption at the individual level.
The document outlines AllianceBernstein's plans to create and distribute an educational multimedia program on investment implications of climate change. It will include 5 segments covering topics like opportunities in shifting to renewable and nuclear power, investing in "clean" fossil fuels through carbon capture, and increasing energy efficiency. Metrics on viewership will be collected. The program aims to demonstrate their thought leadership on this issue and promote their climate change research to clients and the media.
Solar has strong long-term growth potential due to falling costs and increasing government support. Solar costs have already fallen 85% since 2010 and are projected to drop another 71% by 2050, making solar competitive with or cheaper than fossil fuel electricity sources. The solar industry is growing rapidly at a 21% annual rate, led by China, India, the US and Japan. Pairing solar with battery storage provides a robust 24/7 renewable energy solution as battery costs also continue to decline sharply. The MAC Global Solar Energy Index tracks the performance of publicly traded solar companies and provides a diversified way to invest in the global solar sector through an exchange traded fund.
Ee w09.1 m_ organization of electricity markets_ liberalisation, competition...Silvester Van Koten
This document discusses several topics related to energy economics, including:
- The declining costs of solar photovoltaic panels over the past 20 years, with costs falling 85-90% since 1998. Some regions now have solar costs between 5-8 euro cents per kilowatt, competitive with or cheaper than fossil fuels.
- Models of integrating intermittent renewable energy like wind and solar into power systems, which show costs increase with higher penetration levels due to profile costs when generation occurs during low price hours, balancing costs from forecast errors, and potential grid costs.
- The optimal share of variable renewables depends on factors like fuel prices, with higher gas prices reducing the optimal wind share surprisingly.
- Organization
Created virtual company which provides solutions on Project Feasibility, Viability Alternatives, Current Scenario Project Development, Plans Budgeting and Costing, Strategic Management of Solar energy.
Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems generate electricity with no marginal costs or emissions. As a result, PV output is almost always prioritized over other fuel sources and delivered to the electric grid. At increasing levels of PV penetration situations arise where PV is curtailed, either because of local supply/demand imbalances or to maintain system flexibility. In this paper, we present a novel synthesis of recent curtailment in four key countries: Chile, China, Germany, and the United States. We find that about 6.5 million MWh of PV output was curtailed in these countries in 2018. We find that PV curtailment peaks in the spring and fall, when PV output is relatively high but electricity demand is relatively low. Similar to the case of wind, some PV curtailment is attributable to limited transmission capacity connecting sparsely populated solar-heavy regions to load centers.
Grid policies generally seek to minimize curtailment because it is viewed as an economic and environmental loss. However, changing grid and technological contexts warrant new thinking on PV curtailment. In the grid context, as grids integrate more PV and other renewable energy generation, seeking an optimal level of accepted curtailment becomes more efficient than preventing it. In the technological context, emerging technologies such as advanced inverters and low-cost battery storage are making PV systems more flexible. With flexible PV, grid operators can use withheld PV output to provide various non-generation grid services. This withheld PV output is a form of curtailment under prevailing definitions of the term. Hence, policies that aim to minimize curtailment may undercut the ability of grid operators to fully use the emerging capabilities of flexible PV systems. As a result, we propose a more exclusive definition of curtailment as unused PV output rather than the more expansive conventional definition as any reduction in system output from its technical potential.
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Lecciones aprendidas del sistema español de apoyo a las renovables basado en un sistema de primas y tarifas.
***
The Spanish economic support system for electricity from renewable energy sources
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Future of solar_power
1. Energies 2015, 8, 7818-7832; doi:10.3390/en8087818
energies
ISSN 1996-1073
www.mdpi.com/journal/energies
Article
The Future of Solar Power in the United Kingdom
Gerard Reid 1,†
and Gerard Wynn 2,†,
*
1
Alexa Capital, 17 Old Court Place, London W8 4PL, UK
2
GWG Energy, 78 Belle Vue Road, Salisbury SP1 3YD, UK
†
These authors contributed equally to this work.
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: gerard@gwgenergy.com.
Academic Editor: Vincenzo Dovì
Received: 30 April 2015 / Accepted: 23 July 2015 / Published: 30 July 2015
Abstract: We used detailed industry data to analyse the impacts of expected further cost
reductions on the competitiveness of solar power in Britain, and assess whether the solar
market can survive without support in the near future. We investigated three solar power
markets: large-scale, ground-mounted “solar farms” (defined in our analysis as larger than a
5000 kilowatt system); commercial roof-top (250 kW); and residential rooftop (3 kW).
We found that all three would be economic without support in the next decade. Such an
outcome assumes progressively falling support under a stable policy regime. We found that
unsubsidised residential solar power may be cheaper with battery storage within the next
five to 10 years. Unsupported domestic solar battery packs achieve payback periods of less
than 10 years by 2025. That could create an inflexion point driving adoption of domestic
solar systems. The variability of solar power will involve some grid integration costs at
higher penetration levels, such as more frequent power market scheduling; more interconnector
capacity; storage; and backup power. These costs and responses could be weighed against
non-market benefits including the potential for grid balancing; lower carbon and particulate
emissions; and energy security.
Keywords: solar power; battery; cost; unsubsidized; policy; United Kingdom
OPEN ACCESS
2. Energies 2015, 8 7819
1. Introduction
To date, European countries have supported the growth of solar photovoltaic (PV), with the goals of
cutting carbon emissions, boosting energy security and nurturing a clean technology sector. As these
countries cut support, the industry may appear at a cross-roads. Evidence from rapid cost reductions and
capacity growth suggests that solar power will prosper without support. The last few decades shows
solar module costs have fallen by about 20% for every doubling in installed capacity [1]. Recent cost
reductions have reduced the share of solar modules in full system costs. Further reductions will
increasingly depend on other, so-called balance of system costs, or “soft costs”. The rate of cost
reductions may therefore fall.
Recent market growth shows the emergence of solar power as a serious global energy player. In the
last 10 years, cumulative installed capacity has grown at an average rate of 49% annually [2]. In 2013,
about 37 gigawatts (GWp) of new PV capacity were added globally, bringing cumulative capacity to
more than 135 GWp. On the human scale, electricity is no longer generated exclusively by huge,
centralised utilities, instead by hundreds of thousands or millions of households, with 1.5 million solar
installations in Germany and more than 600,000 in Britain [3,4].
1.1. What is Grid Parity?
The three main configurations of solar PV are small-scale, residential rooftop; commercial rooftop;
and large-scale, ground-mounted solar farms. Large-scale solar delivers electricity into the medium-voltage,
transmission network. Once large-scale solar is competitive with wholesale power prices, called grid
parity, it will be economic without government support. In this report, we use British government
projections for wholesale power prices [5]. It is noted, however, that wholesale power prices may fall
faster than these projections, as a result of more wind and solar power, or rise, depending on fossil fuel
prices and energy technologies going forward. The notion of “support-free” large-scale solar may be less
relevant in an increasingly regulated power market where all technologies are supported, as we are seeing
in Britain. In this event, parity with gas may be the target.
Roof-top solar delivers electricity into the home or business, at the low-voltage, distribution end of
the electric grid, called distributed generation. It is sometimes assumed that once roof-top solar is cheaper
than residential power prices, it is cost-competitive without support. In fact, competitiveness depends on
the proportion of solar power that households use (“self-consumption”); retail power prices; and the
proportion that they feed into the grid instead. In Europe, households with roof-top solar presently
consume about 30% of the solar power they generate, feeding the remainder back into the grid.
Self-consumption of solar power is already competitive in many countries without subsidy, compared
with the alternative of using mains electricity. However, roof-top solar power is still more expensive
than wholesale electricity prices. As a result, exporting surplus power to the grid is still not competitive
without a supported, “export tariff”, which is well above the wholesale power price. If solar users had to
export power at wholesale power prices, roof-top installations would only be starting to break-even now
in central and southern Europe [6].
Maximising self-consumption is therefore critical for subsidy-free, rooftop solar. Going forward,
we see this issue being resolved by continuing cost reductions, and trends which drive self-consumption
3. Energies 2015, 8 7820
rates to well above 50% (see Section 3). These trends include smart energy devices in our homes, which
coordinate home appliances with solar power generation, plus cost reductions in battery storage.
1.2. The UK Market
Cumulative solar PV capacity is already above 5,000 megawatts (MWp) [7], compared with total
generating capacity in Britain of about 71,200 MW [8]. Britain’s Department of Energy and Climate
Change (DECC) has estimated the cost of large-scale electricity generation for different technologies,
commissioned from 2015–2030 [9]. The study uses both assumed, average costs of capital, and
technology-specific costs of capital, the latter taking into account factors such as construction time and
planning permitting risk. Where technology-specific costs of capital are used, the study found that
large-scale solar in Britain is already cheaper than offshore wind power; is in the same ballpark as
nuclear; and will be able to compete with gas and onshore wind by 2025 [9]. Meanwhile, the rooftop
market in Britain is nearing cost-competitiveness with domestic mains electricity, as solar costs fall and
residential power prices rise.
Germany now provides a possible glimpse of Britain’s electric power system in 2020. Solar
photovoltaic (PV) power accounts for about 7% of the country’s final electricity demand. Solar accounts
for most peak demand in summer, and as much as half of all electricity demand on summer weekends.
It has up-ended power markets, pushing wholesale power prices lower. Having zero fuel costs and a
guaranteed right to sell power into the grid, it can displace gas and coal-fired power, leading even to
negative wholesale power prices, and threatening utility profits.
1.3. Comparisons between Britain and Germany
Germany is a good benchmark for Britain, given its similar energy mix (fossil fuels, nuclear and
renewables); standard of living; level of power demand; and solar irradiance [10]. The big difference at
present is that Germany is the world’s biggest market for solar, with an installed capacity of some 37.2
gigawatts across about 1.5 million installations [3]. Britain, in contrast, has about 5 GWp installed across
0.6 million installations [4,7]. In 2014, solar power accounted for nearly 7% of total final electricity
consumption in Germany [11], compared with 1.3% in Britain [12].
As the British solar market develops we expect it to go through many of the changes seen in Germany,
including growing competitiveness across the solar value chain. Solar installation costs are lower in
Germany than the UK because of greater efficiency, particularly in financing but also in development
and installation. We believe that German and UK full installed solar prices will converge over the next
years. Lower German costs are reflected in differences in feed-in tariffs and installation costs for rooftop
solar. In Britain, the support for solar power generation by 0–4 kW systems is 14.38 pence per kWh for
20 years, plus inflation, plus an export tariff of 4.77 pence [13]. The German feed-in tariff for small
systems is 10.1 pence (12.69 euro cents) per kWh, over the same period. The differences can also be
seen in the installation costs, which were £1,580 per kW in Q1 2014 in Britain, compared with £1,310
(€1,640) per kW in Germany [14,15]. Germany’s Fraunhofer Institute calculated the most cost-efficient
solar farms were now competitive with onshore wind and well ahead of offshore wind [16].
4. Energies 2015, 8 7821
1.4. Cost Calculation: Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE) and Payback Periods
One common measure of the cost of generating solar power is the levelised cost of energy (LCOE),
which divides the lifetime cost of a solar installation by lifetime power generation, measured in pence
per kilowatt hour (kWh). For the sake of simplicity, LCOE excludes important costs, such as grid
integration; waste disposal; and pollution. LCOE is a useful way to account for important factors such
as capacity factor and the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), two critical variables.
Capacity factor is the actual output of a power plant as a percentage of its theoretical maximum.
In the case of solar, it will take into account local solar irradiance and day length. In very sunny countries,
such as Australia, solar panel load factors can reach 30% or more. Britain’s Department of Energy and
Climate Change (DECC) calculated an average capacity factor for solar PV in Britain of 10.3% in 2013 [17].
Weighted cost of capital (WACC) reflects the average cost of financing for a project. WACC will be
higher for less mature technologies, because investors require a higher return on equity to compensate
for the higher risk. The WACC is used to discount future cash flows, and so critically affects the cost
calculation. British government estimates for large-scale solar LCOE illustrate the point. Using a 10%
WACC across all energy technologies, DECC ranks solar costs higher than wind, nuclear and gas.
However, using a lower, technology-specific WACC for large-scale solar power of 6.2%, reflecting the
maturity of the technology and speed of construction, DECC ranked large-scale solar as the cheapest
form of UK power generation before 2025 [9].
Most rooftop solar consumers assess solar investments in terms of payback periods, rather than
LCOE. As a result, we use LCOE as a measure for the economics of large-scale, ground-mounted solar,
and payback periods for the economics of commercial and residential rooftop solar power. The payback
period is defined as the length of time it takes to recoup the upfront investment, based on annual savings
as a result of reduced utility bills. We assumed steadily rising domestic power prices, using the latest
DECC projections; rising self-consumption rates; and we discounted the revenues and expenses
according to a discount rate or WACC (see Section 5. Methodology). We expect that most customers
would require payback periods around 10 years or below before considering an investment. Payback
periods were calculated using the same approach as for LCOE, including estimates for cost reductions
in solar hardware and balance of systems over the next decade.
Increasing the self-consumption rate is critical for the economics of unsubsidised residential systems,
as described above. With higher self-consumption, households avoid selling surpluses at a very low
wholesale power price (presently about 5 pence per kWh in Britain), and buying mains electricity at
much higher retail power prices (about 16 pence). While self-consumption rates in Europe are presently
about 30%, home management systems are emerging which can boost these to 45%. As support is
withdrawn, the incentive for self-consumption will rise. We assume steadily rising self-consumption
rates (see Section 5. Methodology). Critically, battery storage increases self-consumption above 50%,
and may therefore be the cornerstone of unsubsidised residential systems.
5. Energies 2015, 8 7822
2. UK Solar Economics
2.1. Solar Module Selling Costs and Prices
Solar module prices have fallen sharply over the past four decades. Solar module cost reductions are
driven by a combination of innovation in the efficiency of material use; light conversion; and production.
Regarding light conversion efficiencies, for example, U.S.-based First Solar expects to reach efficiencies
of 19.5% in 2017, referring to its Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) thin film cells, from 13% in 2013 [18].
Such numbers refer to the proportion of light energy striking a solar module that is converted to
electricity. Recent cost reductions additionally reflect global commoditization of solar cells and modules,
and in particular a ramp-up of manufacturing capacity in China, leading to global surpluses. A decade
ago, solar panel (module) prices were as high as £4.00/Watt and the global market for solar was 500
megawatts (MWp) installed per year. Today modules prices are well below £0.40/Watt and the global
market in 2014 is expected to be over 40 GWp.
Our own predictions, based on in-depth conversations with manufacturers, suggest best-in-class
module costs falling from £0.32/Watt in 2014 to £0.20/Watt in 2020. Figure 1 shows our expectations
for changes in module production costs from 2014 to 2020, taking into account small cost increases
expected in operation and materials, more than offset by savings as a result of innovation in
manufacturing and economies of scale.
Figure 1. Module production cost reductions, 2014–2020. Sources: First Solar, and
unpublished industry cost maps.
Full solar system costs may not maintain the same pace of reductions as seen in the past five years.
That is because the swiftest reductions have come from solar modules, which now account for a smaller
share of the total. The remaining, so-called balance of system costs, include inverters, installation and
financing. Inverters convert direct current electricity generated by solar modules into alternating current
required by many machines and household appliances. Inverter costs are continuing to fall, and Britain
will in addition benefit from continuing reductions in installation and financing, as the supply chain
6. Energies 2015, 8 7823
matures. However, these cost reductions may be more gradual. Meanwhile, we expect soft costs such as
installation and financing to fall, as discussed above, as Britain converges with other more mature
markets such as Germany.
We see the pace of full system cost reductions in Britain moderating for the rest of this decade,
compared with the previous five years. Nevertheless, we still expect full installed costs to fall by about
one third between now and 2020 (see Figure 2). This is slightly more ambitious than some estimates.
For example, the International Energy Agency recently estimated that global average full installed solar
costs (including equipment, labour and financing) would halve by 2040 or sooner [2].
Figure 2. Full installed costs, UK ground-mounted systems, 2010–2020. Source:
Our research, industry experts.
2.2. Solar Battery Pack Economics
Various potential remedies exist for the variability of solar power. Battery storage is one of these,
where solar battery pack products are now emerging. Storage solutions available today are expensive.
Electricity must be converted into another form of energy and then converted back into electrical energy.
Lithium-ion is one promising battery storage technology currently under development. Lithium ion
battery packs are still costly, at around £320/kWh [19]. Battery costs are falling, however, partly as
a result of production and innovation in the automotive sector. With its planned “gigafactory”,
Tesla Motors believe that their battery packs could reach £100–130/kWh in 2020 [20,21]. See Figure 3
for our projection of battery pack costs, taking into account published Tesla projections and our
unpublished interviews with the German battery developer, Younicos.
7. Energies 2015, 8 7824
Figure 3. Battery pack production cost reductions, 2010–2020 (£/kWh). Sources: Published
Tesla cost data; conversations with industry experts, including Younicos.
At present in Germany, the problem for unsubsidised solar is the very low wholesale power price at
which solar surpluses must be sold into the grid. The Swiss investment bank, UBS, last year calculated
that unsupported rooftop solar in southern Germany already breaks even (defined as total annual
electricity costs with and without solar panels), assuming a grid export price of 3 cents, and 30%
self-consumption [6]. The regulated, “subsidised” export price at present is up to 12.69 euro cents per
kilowatt hour, in Germany, compared with domestic power prices of about 29 cents, and spot wholesale
power prices of about 3 cents.
Without supported grid export prices, it becomes critical to maximise self-consumption. Households
can first change their behaviour by using more self-generated electricity in the daytime, called load
shifting. Leading global inverter manufacturer SMA Solar has developed software which matches the
operation of household appliances and heating systems with forecast home solar output, through
radio-controlled switches. This can increase self-consumption to 45%, the company estimates [22].
Batteries can make a bigger difference. Households can use deliberately small battery packs, minimising
extra costs, and extend home-generated solar power past sunset, and increase self-consumption beyond
50% (see Section 5). Unsupported residential battery-pack solar PV systems are already becoming a
cost-effective option in Germany, Italy and Spain, according to UBS. UBS sees a particular benefit from
combining solar PV with a static battery, plus an electric vehicle (EV). That is because of a natural fit,
where the static (non-EV) battery would mop up surplus daytime solar supply, and use this to charge the
EV battery at night. In Germany, unsubsidised solar battery/ EV packages would deliver a return on
investment of more than 7% by 2020, compared with a conventional car and no solar panels, according
to UBS [21].
2.3. Cost Trajectories: Fossil Fuels
Gas is what is called the “marginal provider” in Britain, meaning that power prices are determined
most of the time by gas plants, as opposed to much of the continent where it is determined by coal and
power prices in neighbouring countries. Depending on the cost trajectory for advanced turbine design,
gas-fired power may have more limited scope for reductions, given that the largest cost element in terms
of its LCOE is fuel cost (the natural gas price), which is both difficult to predict and hedge. There are
huge differences in global gas prices, with Japan (in 2013) paying on average $17 per Mbtu as opposed
£0
£200
£400
£600
£800
£1,000
£1,200
2010 2013 2015 2020 2025
Battery cell & other components Battery pack Balance of system
9. Energies 2015, 8 7826
Figure 5. UK large-scale solar farm LCOEs, £/kWh, 2015–2025.
3.2. Commercial Rooftop Payback Periods
Our analysis finds that commercial rooftop solar systems reach payback periods of well below 15 years
in southern England by 2020. These findings assume that commercial business can use 70% of the power
produced (see Figure 6). Payback periods fall below 10 years across Britain more generally by 2025,
using government assumptions for irradiation and power prices. These estimated payback periods could
be a substantial driver for this market, depending on the minimum payback periods required to trigger
investments by individual businesses.
Figure 6. UK commercial rooftop payback periods, number of years, 2015–2025.
3.3. Residential Rooftop Payback Periods
By 2020, paybacks of 16 years are reached in southern England, under our various assumptions (see
Figure 7). By 2025, payback periods are as low as eight years in southern England, and even in northern
Scotland only 14 years. At these levels, residential solar may be viable without government help. These
findings assume steadily rising consumption rates of home-generated solar power, and therefore bigger
savings on avoided utility bills. If self-consumption remained at present rates of about 25%–30%,
unsubsidised residential solar may struggle even in 2025 (see Table 1). On the other hand, a lower cost
10. Energies 2015, 8 7827
of capital would bring forward parity without support. We assumed much higher residential financing
costs, for example, than the bottom end of the 1%–12% range used by Britain’s National Audit Office [24].
Figure 7. Residential rooftop payback periods, number of years, 2015–2025.
Table 1. UK average payback period for unsupported residential solar, according to
self-consumption ratio, 2015–2025.
2015
Self consumption ratio 100% 75% 50% 25% 0%
Payback period, years 19 29 69 (190) (40)
2020
Self consumption ratio 100% 75% 50% 25% 0%
Payback period, years 8 11 17 40 (106)
2025
Self consumption ratio 100% 75% 50% 25% 0%
Payback period, years 6 7 10 18 70
3.4. Solar Battery Pack Payback Periods
Our analysis of the economics of solar battery pack systems suggests that these could achieve payback
periods of below 15 years in 2020 (see Figure 8).
Figure 8. Projected solar battery pack payback periods, number of years, 2015–2025.
11. Energies 2015, 8 7828
That is a little more competitive than our analysis of residential solar without batteries, reflecting
higher self-consumption rates. Our modelling suggests payback periods of 10 years or less for solar
battery pack systems across England and Wales by 2025, at which point financial support may no longer
be needed.
4. Discussion
Solar PV is likely to be a critical technology in the 21st century. It is already a technology which is
nearing maturity. At this stage, it makes sense that governments continue to support the industry until it
is fully economic without subsidies. Progressive and predictable reductions in support over the next
decade will help build a more mature, low-cost supply chain, while maintaining value for money and
preventing developers from inflating prices. Getting the right support level is critical to driving sustained
cost reductions.
The analysis presented in this study suggests that support for solar power in Britain can be cut
progressively to zero over the next five to 10 years. The trick is finding the right balance, between driving
efficiencies which create a new, low-margin business model, and killing a British solar industry which
has export potential, particularly in finance and project development. Support for solar power to date has
led to capacity increases which have cut costs as supply chains matured [25]. The International Energy
Agency showed that Britain now has one of the most cost-effective markets for solar systems, with lower
costs than major markets including the United States, Japan and France [2]. Public policy advisers such
as the Global Commission on Economy and Climate have stressed that governments should reduce
support for renewable energy progressively, but in a predictable way [26].
Policymakers could reduce the impact of solar support on domestic power prices, by shifting some
price-based support towards alternatives such as low interest rate credit, and subsidies for batteries.
Britain’s Green Investment Bank, for example, has so far excluded solar power from loans of £1.6 billion
for renewable energy. The government can support measures to optimise the grid integration of
renewables, including the rollout of smart meters, and a more computerised grid, which uses digital
technologies for faster, deeper, more responsive network communication and control. Near-term support
for domestic solar battery packs, for example through grants or low-cost credit, could also aid a shift
away from price-based support while preserving the economics of solar power.
This report shows a cost trajectory where both large-scale and rooftop solar will be able to survive
increasingly without direct support over the next decade. Such a definition of support excludes wider
policy measures which would indirectly benefit solar power, such as carbon pricing, or capacity
payments for gas-fired power plants, which would support the grid integration of variable renewables.
Such less visible support may be justified in the context of clear, un-priced and under-priced non-market
benefits of solar power.
5. Methodology
Cost data were gleaned from a mix of interviews with leading companies and experts in the solar and
battery space. Regarding projections, there is uncertainty about each of these factors and their values
which can vary regionally and across time as weather patterns change and technologies evolve.
Regarding technology change, and its impact on capital costs, the authors undertook unattributed
12. Energies 2015, 8 7829
interviews with five leading global manufacturers, and five solar developers operating in the UK. The
results of these interviews were validated using the cost roadmaps of three listed companies: First Solar,
Sun Edison and Trina Solar. Soft costs were based on interviews with leading installers. A similar
process was followed to evaluate the prospects for commercially competitive batteries. The literature
reveals that costs are falling, but with large uncertainties on past, current and future costs of the
dominating Li-ion technology. In this study, interviews were conducted with the leading Asian
manufacturers, on an unattributed basis. These interviews were validated with the publicly available cost
roadmap of Tesla; third party research from investment banks such as UBS; and interviews with buyers
of the battery technology, such as Germany’s Younicos.
These data were used to derive cost estimates using two approaches. Levelised cost of electricity
(LCOE) analysis was used to determine the cost of power generation by large-scale, ground-mounted
solar systems. Payback periods were calculated for commercial and residential systems. LCOE is a
standard measure used globally to compare the costs of differing generation technologies, also used by
institutional investors to determine the valuation of generation assets. However, it is not used by the
average household when making investment decisions. Householders often think in terms of how long
it takes to recover their upfront investment. Payback periods are similarly appropriate for commercial
businesses which also think in these terms.
Under LCOE analysis, the costs for constructing and operating a plant over its lifetime are summed
and divided by the amount of power that the plant produces. The resulting LCOE is expressed in pounds
per KWh. The key inputs to calculating the LCOE are: capital costs, operations and maintenance costs
(O&M); financing costs; fuel costs; and an assumed utilization rate for each area. The latter was
determined based on so-called isolation rates. This study used insolation data from the UK Met Office.
Such data show the amount of electricity that can be generated by an optimally positioned 1kW rated
PV solar panel. For example, in Leeds a 1kW solar module should produce 825 kWh of electricity in a
typical year whereas a module in Aberdeen only 700 kWh. To calculate the net present value of costs,
we used a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) to discount revenues and expenses, as calculated
below. The discount rate (WACC) is very important, because the rate reflects the riskiness of the
investment, and small changes can lead to relatively large changes in investment returns. For simplicity,
we assumed a WACC of 6.2%, which is in line with the UK government’s assumptions for large-scale
solar power:
1
1
where wd = Weight of debt proportion to total capital, ws = Weight of equity proportion to total capital,
kd = Cost of debt, ks = Cost of equity and t = Corporate tax rate.
The study used payback periods for the economics of commercial and residential rooftop systems.
The payback period is defined as the length of time it takes to recoup the upfront investment, based on
annual savings as a result of reduced utility bills. To this it was assumed that consumer power prices
would rise in line with the latest DECC projections (see assumed self-consumption rates below). Payback
periods were calculated using the same analysis as for LCOE, including estimates for cost reductions in
solar hardware and balance of systems over the next decade. In our LCOE and Payback Period
calculations, we have assumed the following:
13. Energies 2015, 8 7830
Module prices for large scale systems of £0.46 pence today falling to £0.24 in 2020 and then £0.22
in 2025;
Zero support for solar power generation; export tariff at the level of the wholesale power price;
Load factors of 9.3% to 12.5%, depending on latitude;
Increased efficiency across the whole solar value chain;
Cost of debt: 4% and cost of equity 6% (German levels);
Debt to equity ratios of 60:40 for large-scale and commercial solar, and 80:20 for residential;
The latest (October 2014) UK projections for residential, commercial and wholesale power prices,
from the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) [27];
For roof-top systems, self-consumption rates for commercial users of 70%; for residential systems,
32% in 2015 rising to 45% in 2025; and 55% for residential systems with batteries;
Depreciation: 10 years for batteries, 25 years for solar panels.
Acknowledgments
Thanks to Ellis Acklin, financial consultant, for his analysis of the solar pricing and system data;
to Stefano Ambrogi, for his guidance in originating this report; and Chloe Battle for her assistance in
graphics production.
Author Contributions
Gerard Reid led data collection and modelling, and Gerard Wynn was responsible for literature review
and drafting of the paper.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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