2. Let’s be honest ….
Most of you have products /
ideas only a mother could love !
3. The biggest 3 mistakes of Entrepreneurs
1. Investing in the wrong business
2. Staying too long in the wrong business.. (after you
should know it is time to change…)
3. People don’t buy your product or service ‘cause they
understand why they should…
4. I will see it when I believe it
vs.
I will believe it when I see it
Too much research is the first type
5. An example: global warming
Hot summers Cold summers
Warm winters Cold winters
Evidence of Evidence of
global warming global warming
Clearly there is evidence of global warming ?!
6. Solutions …
Issues Solutions
• We often do research to check • Objective criteria in place before
our brilliant ideas the research starts
• SUGGING (Selling under the guise – Is 35% planned purchase good or
bad
of market research)
• Clearly define your biases before
you start
• Focus on insight (vs.
confirmation)
• Do regular reality checks
6
7. You’re not alone !
‘‘More than nine out of ten consumable products
launched in the last ten years offered absolutely
nothing new to the consumer.
More than eight out of ten new products fail. You
don’t need to be a statistician to realize there’s a
correlation between the two numbers.’’
-- Robert McMath
8. Arguing the other direction…
Why is this a bad idea…
If it fails, why will it fail…
And then deciding what can
be done about it…
9. A checklist for ideas…
• Is there a benefit (real or perceived)
• People willing to pay (enough)
• Cost of cut-through acceptable
• People will see the benefit buy again / recommend
to others
• Will someone hate it
10. Pets.com Kosmo Despair.com Etoys.com Petrock Flooz Webvan
Is there a benefit (real or
percieved)
People willing to pay (enough)
Cost of cut-through acceptable
People will see the benefit buy
again / recommend to others
Will someone hate it
Kill Puppy (0 = kill, 1 = love)
13. Kosmo.com
Instant delivery of
products purchased
via the internet in big
cities
Order a wide variety
of products, from
movies to snack
food, and get them
delivered to your
door for
free within an hour.
13
14. Despair.com
We hate all the senseless, wasted time on employee motivation and un-
founded optimism
We imagine you do to, buy our products and show your true colors
14
26. Costs per stage
Budget
The time to
Make mistakes !
Ideas, screening
Concept, analysis
Time
Prod. Test commercialization
devel mktg
27. Can you ask the experts ???
“I think there’s a world market for about five
computers.” (President of IBM, 1943)
“TV won’t be able to hold on to any market it
captures after the first six months. People will soon
get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.”
(President of 20th Century Fox, 1946)
29. Not all new products are
revolutions !
There are many holes in the
markets, but fewer markets in
the holes ..
30. A checklist …
• Talk to 20 people (that are not your friends)
• If no one hates the idea, be scared
• Ask people “if this fails” why would it fail (you’ll get a
lot more information than asking what they think of
the idea !)
• Keep it simple … check do people really understand
31. Remember better is never enough
Fat Bastard is priced higher,
tastes less good but outsells
Bilton 10 to 1…
32. A reading list
• The wisdom of crowds … how you can use non-
experts to get answers to tough questions
• The start-ups owners manual..Chapter 3 customer
discovery
• William Harmon- An incomplete guide to the future…
how to see what paradigms are affecting the way the
you see the future