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Emerging Fixed Income  Local Debt December 2007
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why invest in local debt ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fortis Investments’ strengths ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Investment Philosophy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Local debt  The asset class ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Powerful structural changes in the asset class Reduced currency risk Fiscal Balance (% GDP) Current Account Balance (% GDP) FX reserves by region (USD mn) Source: JPMorgan
Market evolution favours local debt Benefits for issuers ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Domestic Debt Securities stock (USDbn)
Market evolution favours local debt Benefits for investors   Ave. daily trading in quarter, cash (USD bn) Trading activity in EM by instrument (%) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Continuing trend New issuers, new investors Domestic Debt Securities stock USDbn as of June 2006 Investor profile of local currency  government debt ownership becoming more diversified
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Attractive yields – high potential returns ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: JP Morgan Indices, Bloomberg, S&P +233 BB- 1.8 16.2 BB Turkey +159 BBB+ 5.0 8.5 A+ South Africa +158 BBB+ 2.0 6.1 A- Russia +166 BBB 5.1 8.1 BBB+ Mexico +269 BB- 6.0 10.1 BB+ Indonesia n/a n/a 6.3 7.9 BBB- India +93 BBB+ 3.8 7.2 BBB+ Hungary +216 BB+ 6.5 10.7 BBB Brazil Spread (bp) S&P Rating Duration Yield S&P Rating External Debt Markets Local Debt Markets As at 18-12-2007
Diversification benefits ,[object Object],[object Object],Source:, Bloomberg / Fortis Investments Monthly rolling correlations: benchmark and major asset classes Jan 2003-Nov 2007
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Investment process Implementation Macro-economic assessment expanded to include local debt drivers  Fundamentals Bonds: domestic curve and carry analysis; implied move versus market Currency: REER, carry against volatility Value Catalysts EM Debt and currency universe Portfolio Expected return  Country indicators Investment decision Drivers and risks to expected return – technical and policy driven Risk monitoring and control  Coherence of views, positions and portfolios
Score cards based investment decisions
Fundamentals Macro-economic assessment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Bloomberg
Value Bonds – primary source of returns and risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Fortis Investments (%) (%)
Value example Thai bonds Difference between 10 year  and 2 year sovereign THB bonds (Sell 10 yr  / Buy 2yr) Source: Bloomberg
Value Currency – real effective exchange rate ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Bloomberg ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Catalysts Risks to expected returns - policy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Bloomberg &  Fortis Investments
Catalysts Risks vs expected returns - technicals ,[object Object],Source: Bloomberg
Catalysts Risks to expected returns – external ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Philippines peso Source: Bloomberg
All decisions within risk-return framework Data based on score cards
Opportunistic positions Outside the process, max 1% each ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Bloomberg Tanzanian shilling June 2002-June 2007
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
FLF Bond World Emerging Local Overview ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
FLF Bond World Emerging Local Performance ,[object Object],[object Object],Past performance or achievements are not indicative of current or future performance.
Conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Biographies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Biographies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Biographies ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],*Partnership with the Euro Fixed Income Investment Center
Team structure  Stable, successful team PORTFOLIO MANAGERS Key supporting teams within Fortis Investments * Partnership with the Euro Fixed Income Investment Centre Global Fixed Income - London Global Credit Research Team with 21 analysts London, Boston, Paris (A. Serpico, Y. de Bray, M. Baud) EM Equities teams – London, Boston, Hong Kong Local Offices Research Support – Turkey, Russia, Indonesia (C. Arras, V. Tsuprov, W. Kastami) Michel Gonnard G. Tossou (London)  A. Jakubowicz L. Develay A. Macleod C. Carney (Boston) Product Specialist Dealers Pierre-Yves Bareau – CIO Yves Oloui Filip Ruszkowski Didier Lambert Raphael Marechal Michal Wozniak* Sergio Trigo Paz Vladimir Gersamia Alain Defise Quant Analyst Junior Portfolio Manager Global & Local funds Asia, ME, Africa CDO, Corporates Emerging Europe Absolute return Latin America Strategist Credit Analyst Emerging Market Fixed Income
AUM evolution
Local debt example Clear view of risk and return opportunities   (As of December 21 st  2006)
Risk management and control FLF Bond World Emerging Local
 
 
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fund Legal Factsheet ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Fortis Bond World Emerging Local

  • 1. Emerging Fixed Income Local Debt December 2007
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  • 8. Powerful structural changes in the asset class Reduced currency risk Fiscal Balance (% GDP) Current Account Balance (% GDP) FX reserves by region (USD mn) Source: JPMorgan
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  • 11. Continuing trend New issuers, new investors Domestic Debt Securities stock USDbn as of June 2006 Investor profile of local currency government debt ownership becoming more diversified
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  • 16. Investment process Implementation Macro-economic assessment expanded to include local debt drivers Fundamentals Bonds: domestic curve and carry analysis; implied move versus market Currency: REER, carry against volatility Value Catalysts EM Debt and currency universe Portfolio Expected return Country indicators Investment decision Drivers and risks to expected return – technical and policy driven Risk monitoring and control Coherence of views, positions and portfolios
  • 17. Score cards based investment decisions
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  • 20. Value example Thai bonds Difference between 10 year and 2 year sovereign THB bonds (Sell 10 yr / Buy 2yr) Source: Bloomberg
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  • 25. All decisions within risk-return framework Data based on score cards
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  • 35. Team structure Stable, successful team PORTFOLIO MANAGERS Key supporting teams within Fortis Investments * Partnership with the Euro Fixed Income Investment Centre Global Fixed Income - London Global Credit Research Team with 21 analysts London, Boston, Paris (A. Serpico, Y. de Bray, M. Baud) EM Equities teams – London, Boston, Hong Kong Local Offices Research Support – Turkey, Russia, Indonesia (C. Arras, V. Tsuprov, W. Kastami) Michel Gonnard G. Tossou (London) A. Jakubowicz L. Develay A. Macleod C. Carney (Boston) Product Specialist Dealers Pierre-Yves Bareau – CIO Yves Oloui Filip Ruszkowski Didier Lambert Raphael Marechal Michal Wozniak* Sergio Trigo Paz Vladimir Gersamia Alain Defise Quant Analyst Junior Portfolio Manager Global & Local funds Asia, ME, Africa CDO, Corporates Emerging Europe Absolute return Latin America Strategist Credit Analyst Emerging Market Fixed Income
  • 37. Local debt example Clear view of risk and return opportunities (As of December 21 st 2006)
  • 38. Risk management and control FLF Bond World Emerging Local
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