Inflection Points

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Morning keynote presentation at the 2010 Earthquake Engineering Research Institute annual meeting. Focus is on futures thinking tools, along with an overview of key drivers for the next few decades.

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  • Do you know the girl in slide 32, her name was something like nenie and she died, did you put this on here for a special reason, to make a point, I love the slide show, I wish I was present for the presentation.

    skoob
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  • Not bad at all. A little too confusing for my taste, but I'm sure it goes better with a narrative :) Good job!
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  • Inflection Points

    1. 1. INFLECTION POINTS Jamais Cascio Research Fellow, Institute for the Future February 4, 2010
    2. 2. What’s Our Vision of The Future?
    3. 3. “Legacy Futures”
    4. 4. Photo by Jason Tester
    5. 5. Is there, perhaps, a more structured way to do this?
    6. 6. Is there, perhaps, a more structured way to do this? Yep. “Strategic Foresight.”
    7. 7. Scenario Planning
    8. 8. Scenario Planning… Tells stories about the future Forces divergent thinking Allows straightforward comparison of outcomes Creates memorable examples But… Tends to over-simplify Becomes obsolete quickly Tends towards the “cinematic”
    9. 9. Foresight Mapping 10
    10. 10. Foresight Mapping… Emphasizes connections Allows complex relationships Focuses on “signals” and early indicators Tends to remain useful over time But… More difficult to understand at a glance Less likely to elicit surprises Doesn’t demand internal consistency
    11. 11. Immersive Futures
    12. 12. Immersive Futures… Trigger visceral reactions Emphasize experience Create “plausibly surreal” artifacts of the future Use provocation as a way of eliciting insight But… Can be a challenge to do well Require time to “live in” the future experience Can provoke unexpectedly strong reactions
    13. 13. 50 YEARS
    14. 14. What we often think of...
    15. 15. GLOBAL CLIMATE DISRUPTION climate disruption
    16. 16. PANDEMIC DISEASE
    17. 17. ECONOMIC DISLOCATION
    18. 18. RESOURCE COLLAPSE resource collapse Photo by Stuart Candy
    19. 19. TERROR the rise of the post- hegemonic era
    20. 20. GROWING STATE POWER
    21. 21. WAR
    22. 22. AND EVEN...
    23. 23. AND EVEN...
    24. 24. But we have to also imagine...
    25. 25. NEW WAYS TO LIVE
    26. 26. CHEAP, DISTRIBUTED ENERGY
    27. 27. “LEAPFROG” DEVELOPMENT
    28. 28. NEW ECONOMIC MODELS
    29. 29. EMERGENT POLITICAL NETWORKS
    30. 30. NEW TOOLS FOR WATCHING THE WORLD
    31. 31. COLLABORATIVE CREATIVITY
    32. 32. NEUROSCIENCE BREAKTHROUGHS
    33. 33. HEALTHY LIFE EXTENSION
    34. 34. ENVIRONMENTAL TRANSPARENCY filters and awareness • AR
    35. 35. TRANSFORMATIVE MATERIALS
    36. 36. REVOLUTIONS IN MANUFACTURING
    37. 37. REVOLUTIONS IN COMPUTING
    38. 38. CRITICAL TENSIONS FOR THE NEXT HALF-CENTURY
    39. 39. Tension #1: new innovations undermine core institutions Bottom-up drivers enable greater collaboration and participation, but also greater instability. This is a future of Open Source Design and Global Guerillas. This is a world where power comes from the Commons.
    40. 40. Tension #2: new technologies co-evolve with new rules Technology-driven changes enable more sharing of information and ideas, but abandon the remnants of old intellectual property and privacy rules. This is a future of the Smart Cities and Augmented Reality. This is a world where power comes from Connections.
    41. 41. Tension #3: big-picture challenges force radical choices Catastrophe and Opportunity combine to drive the creation of new economic, political, and social models. This is a future of Massive Disruptions and Unanticipated Consequences. This is a world where power comes from Creativity.
    42. 42. CO THE COMMONS TY VI N N TI EA EC CR TI O N S
    43. 43. Using Foresight Thinking
    44. 44. AS A “WIND TUNNEL”
    45. 45. AS A “WIND TUNNEL” Testing Strategic Options Seeking Adaptation Evolving within a Dynamic Environment
    46. 46. AS AN “IMMUNE SYSTEM”
    47. 47. AS AN “IMMUNE SYSTEM” Testing Implications Seeking Points of Influence Uncovering Longer-Term Results of Present Choices
    48. 48. AS A CHALLENGE
    49. 49. AS A CHALLENGE Clarifying Goals Offering Perspective Connecting Purpose and Intent Over the Long Term
    50. 50. Jamais Cascio cascio@openthefuture.com Twitter:@cascio

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