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scenario analysis

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scenario analysis

  1. 1. Page  1 YOUR LOGO Scenario Analysis Strategic Planning / Scenario Funnel Time Present Observablequantity Trendscenario Worse Case Best Case a Disturbance Decision Point A B b
  2. 2. Page  2 YOUR LOGO Scenario Analysis Procedure Scenario technique This is a placeholder text. All words can be replaced with your own. This is a placeholder text. All words can be replaced with your own. This is a placeholder text. This is a placeholder text. All words can be replaced with your own. This is a placeholder text. All words can be replaced with your own.
  3. 3. Page  3 YOUR LOGO Scenario Analysis Phase model InterpretationInterpretation55 44 Development and Interpretation of phasesDevelopment and Interpretation of phases 33 Trend projection and identification of scenariosTrend projection and identification of scenarios 22 Effects AnalysisEffects Analysis 11 Tasks and problem analysis
  4. 4. Page  4 YOUR LOGO Scenario Analysis Influencing Main opportunitiesMain opportunities  …  …  …  …  …  … Main RisksMain Risks  …  …  …  …  …  … Strategic approaches to finding solutionsStrategic approaches to finding solutions The text demonstrates how your own text will look when you replace the placeholder text. The text that you insert will retain the same style and format as the placeholder text. The text demonstrates how your own text will look when you replace the placeholder text. The text that you insert will retain the same style and format as the placeholder text. Proposals to implementProposals to implement The text demonstrates how your own text will look when you replace the placeholder text. The text that you insert will retain the same style and format as the placeholder text. The text demonstrates how your own text will look when you replace the placeholder text. The text that you insert will retain the same style and format as the placeholder text.
  5. 5. Page  5 YOUR LOGO Scenario Analysis Scenario Scenario Funnel + Positioning Present Short time Medium time Long time Trend scenario Disturbance Decision Point a b A1 B1 A2 B2 I IV II III + Case - Case  This is a placeholder text.  All words can be replaced with your own.  This is a placeholder text.  All words can be replaced with your own.  This is a place for own text.
  6. 6. Page  6 YOUR LOGO Present Short time Medium time Long time Trend scenario Disturbance Decision Point  This is a placeholder text.  All words can be replaced with your own.  This is a placeholder text.  All words can be replaced with your own.  This is a place for own text. a b A1 B1 A2 B2 I IV II III + Case - Case Scenario Analysis Exponential Scenario Funnel
  7. 7. Page  7 YOUR LOGO Scenario Analysis 2 Scenarios Scenario AScenario A  This is a placeholder text.  This text can be replaced with your own text. All phrases can be replaced with your own text.  This is a placeholder text.  This is a placeholder text.  This text can be replaced with your own text. All phrases can be replaced with your own text.  This is a placeholder text. Scenario BScenario B  This is a placeholder text.  This text can be replaced with your own text. All phrases can be replaced with your own text.  This is a placeholder text.  This is a placeholder text.  This text can be replaced with your own text. All phrases can be replaced with your own text.  This is a placeholder text. Disturbance Decision Point a A Bb Time Observablequantity Present Trendscenario Best case Worse case
  8. 8. Page  8 YOUR LOGO Scenario Analysis Future prospects Disturbance Decision Point Present Short time Medium time Long time  This is a placeholder text.  All words can be replaced with your own.  All words can be replaced with your own.  This is a placeholder text. Trendscenario
  9. 9. Page  9 YOUR LOGO Scenario Analysis 3 Scenarios in a scenario funnel Positive extreme scenarioPositive extreme scenario  This is a placeholder text.  All words can be replaced with your own.  This is a placeholder text.  All words can be replaced with your own. Trend scenarioTrend scenario  This is a placeholder text. This is a placeholder text. Negative extreme scenarioNegative extreme scenario  This is a placeholder text.  All words can be replaced with your own.  This is a placeholder text.  All words can be replaced with your own. 5-10 11-20 >20 Trendscenario Years + Case - Case Impact of decisions Disturbance Decision Point
  10. 10. Page  10 YOUR LOGO Scenario Analysis Visions, utopias and future plans Present Observablequantity Past Future Empirical data, past performance Scenario Driver Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D Scenario E Discontinuity
  11. 11. Page  11 YOUR LOGO Scenario Analysis Case Studies Best caseBest case  …  …  …  …  …  … Worse caseWorse case  …  …  …  …  …  … Resulting consequencesResulting consequences The text demonstrates how your own text will look when you replace the placeholder text. The text that you insert will retain the same style and format as the placeholder text. The text demonstrates how your own text will look when you replace the placeholder text. The text that you insert will retain the same style and format as the placeholder text. InfluencesInfluences The text demonstrates how your own text will look when you replace the placeholder text. The text that you insert will retain the same style and format as the placeholder text. The text demonstrates how your own text will look when you replace the placeholder text. The text that you insert will retain the same style and format as the placeholder text.
  12. 12. Page  12 YOUR LOGO Scenario Analysis Risk-Matrix Slightly <20.000 € Medium <100.000 € More <500.000 € High <1.000.000 € Existential <5.000.000 € Damage level unable < 1% unlikely < 3% probably < 8% repeatedly < 15% frequently < 20% Probability XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

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