Applicability of Error Limit in Forecasting & Scheduling of Wind & Solar Powe...del2infinity Energy
A Technical paper on ‘Applicability of Error Limit in Forecasting & Scheduling of Wind & Solar Power in India’’ by Abhik Kumar Das at India SMART GRID Week 2017 organised by India Smart Grid Forum & Government of India at Manekshaw Centre, New Delhi.
Andhra Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (Forecasting, Scheduling, De...Das A. K.
Andhra Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (Forecasting, Scheduling, Deviation Settlement and Related Matters of Solar and Wind Generation Sources) Regulations, 2016
PV-solar / Wind Hybrid Energy System for GSM/CDMA Type Mobile Telephony Base ...IJERA Editor
This paper presents the design of optimized PV-Solar and Wind Hybrid Energy System for GSM/CDMA type mobile base station over conventional diesel generator for a particular site in south India (Chennai). For this hybrid system ,the meteorological data of Solar Insolation, hourly wind speed, are taken for Chennai (Longitude 80ο.16’and Latitude 13ο.5’ ) and the pattern of load consumption of mobile base station are studied and suitably modeled for optimization of the hybrid energy system using HOMER software. The simulation and optimization result gives the best optimized sizing of wind turbine and solar array with diesel generator for particular GSM/CDMA type mobile telephony base station. This system is more cost effective and environmental friendly over the conventional diesel generator. The presented system reduce approximate 70%-80% fuel cost over conventional diesel generator and also reduced the emission of CO2 and other harmful gasses in environments. It is expected that the proposed developed and installed system will provide very good opportunities for telecom sector in near future.
Applicability of Error Limit in Forecasting & Scheduling of Wind & Solar Powe...del2infinity Energy
A Technical paper on ‘Applicability of Error Limit in Forecasting & Scheduling of Wind & Solar Power in India’’ by Abhik Kumar Das at India SMART GRID Week 2017 organised by India Smart Grid Forum & Government of India at Manekshaw Centre, New Delhi.
Andhra Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (Forecasting, Scheduling, De...Das A. K.
Andhra Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (Forecasting, Scheduling, Deviation Settlement and Related Matters of Solar and Wind Generation Sources) Regulations, 2016
PV-solar / Wind Hybrid Energy System for GSM/CDMA Type Mobile Telephony Base ...IJERA Editor
This paper presents the design of optimized PV-Solar and Wind Hybrid Energy System for GSM/CDMA type mobile base station over conventional diesel generator for a particular site in south India (Chennai). For this hybrid system ,the meteorological data of Solar Insolation, hourly wind speed, are taken for Chennai (Longitude 80ο.16’and Latitude 13ο.5’ ) and the pattern of load consumption of mobile base station are studied and suitably modeled for optimization of the hybrid energy system using HOMER software. The simulation and optimization result gives the best optimized sizing of wind turbine and solar array with diesel generator for particular GSM/CDMA type mobile telephony base station. This system is more cost effective and environmental friendly over the conventional diesel generator. The presented system reduce approximate 70%-80% fuel cost over conventional diesel generator and also reduced the emission of CO2 and other harmful gasses in environments. It is expected that the proposed developed and installed system will provide very good opportunities for telecom sector in near future.
The Renewable energy sources, especially wind turbine generators, are considered as
important generation alternatives in electric power systems due to their non-exhausted nature and
benign environmental effects [1]. The fact that wind power penetration continues to increase has
motivated a need to develop more widely applicable methodologies for evaluating the actual benefits
of adding wind turbines to conventional generating systems. In this paper reliability evaluation of
wind power generation system is carried. Reliability evaluation of generating systems with wind
energy sources is a complex process. It requires an accurate wind speed forecasting technique for the
wind farm site. The method requires historical wind speed data collected over many years for the
wind farm location to determine the necessary parameters of the wind speed models for the
particular site [3]. The evaluation process should also accurately model the intermittent nature of
power output from the wind farm. For the data analysis excel data analysis tool is used and
probability distribution of wind speeds are calculated [10]. This study shows the system availability
for the generation of power from wind turbine generators installed at the Hanamasagar, a village
near Gajendragada of Karnataka State.
PVPF tool: an automated web application for real-time photovoltaic power fore...IJECEIAES
In this paper, we propose a fully automated machine learning based forecasting system, called Photovoltaic Power Forecasting (PVPF) tool, that applies optimised neural networks algorithms to real-time weather data to provide 24 hours ahead forecasts for the power production of solar photovoltaic systems installed within the same region. This system imports the real-time temperature and global solar irradiance records from the ASU weather station and associates these records with the available solar PV production measurements to provide the proper inputs for the pre-trained machine learning system along with the records’ time with respect to the current year. The machine learning system was pre-trained and optimised based on the Bayesian Regularization (BR) algorithm, as described in our previous research, and used to predict the solar power PV production for the next 24 hours using weather data of the last five consecutive days. Hourly predictions are provided as a power/time curve and published in real-time at the website of the renewable energy center (REC) of Applied Science Private University (ASU). It is believed that the forecasts provided by the PVPF tool can be helpful for energy management and control systems and will be used widely for the future research activities at REC.
Large Scale Grid Integration of Renewable Energy Sources - Way ForwardSpark Network
A detailed report on the recommended methodology for the effective integration of Renewable Energy Projects with the Grid has been published by Central Electricity Authority.
Loss issue is significant in power system since it affects the operation of power system, which ultimately can be translated to monetary effect. Incremental demand that explicitly adding the reactive load causes extra heating losses in the transmission circuit. Without appropriate remedial control, the temperature increase on transmission line cable would end with insulation failure. This phenomenon can be alleviated with a proper compensation scheme that provides optimal solution along with avoidance of under-compensation or over-compensation. Evolutionary Programming (EP) has been recognised as one of the powerful optimisation technique, applied in solving power system problems. Nevertheless, EP is an old technique that sometimes could reach to a settlement that is not fully satisfied. Thus, the need fora new approach to improve the setback is urgent. This paper presents immunized-evolutionary algorithm based technique for loss control in transmission system with multi-load increment. The classical EP was integrated with immune algorithm so as to reduce the computational burden experienced by the classical EP.The algorithm has been tested on an IEEE 12-Bus System and IEEE 14-Bus System.Comparative study was conducted between EP and IEP in terms of optimisation performance. The optimal size and location of PV determined by IEP was able to control the loss in transmission system when the load increases. Results obtained from the studies revealed the merit of the proposed IEP; indicating its feasibility for future implementation in practical system.
Sizing of Hybrid PV/Battery Power System in Sohag cityiosrjce
This paper gives the feasibility analysis of PV- Battery system for an off-grid power station in Sohag
city. Hybrid PV-battery system was used for supplying a combined pumping and residential load. A simple cost
effective method for sizing stand-alone PV hybrid systems was introduced. The aim of sizing hybrid system is to
determine the cost effective PV configuration and to meet the estimated load at minimum cost. This requires
assessing the climate conditions which determine the temporal variation of the insolation in Sohag city. Sizing
of the hybrid system components was investigated using RETscreen and HOMER programs. The sizing software
tools require a set of data on energy resource demand and system specifications. The energy cost values of the
hybrid system agrees reasonably with those published before.
Prediction of the Power Output of Solar Cells Using Neural Networks: Solar Ce...CSCJournals
The prediction of the output power of solar cells in a given place has always been an important factor in planning the installation of solar cell panels, and guiding electrical companies to control, manage and distribute the energy into their electricity networks properly. The production of the electricity sector in Palestine using solar cells is a promising sector; this paper proposes a model which is used to predict future output power values of solar cells, which provides individuals and companies with future information, so they can organize their activities. We aim to create a model that able to connect time, place, and the relations between randomly distributed solar energy units. The system analyzes collected data from units through solar cells distributed in different places in Palestine. Multilayer Feed-Forward with Backpropagation Neural Networks (MFFNNBP) is used to predict the power output of the solar cells in different places in Palestine. The model depends on predicting the future produce of the power output of solar cell depending on the real power output of the previous values. The data used in this paper depends on data collection of one day, month, and year. Finally, this proposed model conduct a systematic process with the aim of determining the most suitable places for an installation solar cell panel in different places in Palestine.
A number of factors are contributing to increases in renewable energy production in the United
States (and beyond). These factors include rapidly declining costs of electricity produced from
renewable energy sources, regulatory and policy obligations and incentives, and moves to reduce
pollution from fossil fuel-based power generation, including greenhouse gas emissions. While
not all renewable energy sources are variable, two such technologies – wind and solar PV –
currently dominate the growth of renewable electricity production. The production from wind
and solar PV tries to capture the freely available but varying amount of wind and solar
irradiance. As the share of electricity produced from variable renewable resources grows, so does
the need to integrate these resources in a cost-effective manner, i.e., to ensure that total
electricity production from all sources including variable renewable generation equals electricity
demand in real time. Also, a future electric system characterized by a rising share of renewable
energy will likely require concurrent changes to the existing transmission and distribution
(T&D) infrastructure. While this report does not delve into that topic, utilities, grid operators
and regulators must carefully plan for needed future investments in T&D, given the lead times
and complexities involved.
Optimal Configuration of Wind Farms in Radial Distribution System Using Parti...journalBEEI
Recently, a wide range of wind farm based distributed generations (DGs) are being integrated into distribution systems to fulfill energy demands and to reduce the burden on transmission corridors. The non-optimal configuration of DGs could severely affect the distribution system operations and control. Hence, the aim of this paper is to analyze the wind data in order to build a mathematical model for power output and pinpoint the optimal location. The overall objective is minimization of power loss reduction in distribution system. The five years of wind data was taken from 24o 44’ 29” North, 67o 35’ 9” East coordinates in Pakistan. The optimal location for these wind farms were pinpointed via particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm using standard IEEE 33 radial distribution system. The result reveals that the proposed method helps in improving renewable energy near to load centers, reduce power losses and improve voltage profile of the system. Moreover, the validity and performance of the proposed model were also compared with other optimization algorithms.
Optimal design of adaptive power scheduling using modified ant colony optimi...IJECEIAES
For generating and distributing an economic load scheduling approach, artificial neural network (ANN) has been introduced, because power generation and power consumption are economically non-identical. An efficient load scheduling method is suggested in this paper. Normally the power generation system fails due to its instability at peak load time. Traditionally, load shedding process is used in which low priority loads are disconnected from sources. The proposed method handles this problem by scheduling the load based on the power requirements. In many countries the power systems are facing limitations of energy. An efficient optimization algorithm is used to periodically schedule the load demand and the generation. Ant colony optimization (ACO) based ANN is used for this optimal load scheduling process. The present work analyse the technical economical and time-dependent limitations. Also the works meets the demanded load with minimum cost of energy. Inorder to train ANN back propagation (BP) technics is used. A hybrid training process is described in this work. Global optimization algorithms are used to provide back propagation with good initial connection weights.
Development of a Cost Effective Power Generation System: An Overviewijeei-iaes
This paper presents an overview on development of cost effective power generation system and motivates for development of a model for hybrid system with wind to investigate the combined operation of wind with different sources to cater to wind’s stochastic nature for imbalance minimization and optimal operation. Development of model for trading power in competitive electricity market and development of strategies for trading in electricity markets (wind energy and reserves markets) to investigate the effects of real time pricing tariffs on electricity market operation has been illustrated in this paper. Dynamic modelling related studies to investigate the wind generator’s kinetic energy for primary frequency support using simulink and simulation studies on doubly fed induction generator to study its capability during small disturbances / fluctuations on power system have been described.
The Renewable energy sources, especially wind turbine generators, are considered as
important generation alternatives in electric power systems due to their non-exhausted nature and
benign environmental effects [1]. The fact that wind power penetration continues to increase has
motivated a need to develop more widely applicable methodologies for evaluating the actual benefits
of adding wind turbines to conventional generating systems. In this paper reliability evaluation of
wind power generation system is carried. Reliability evaluation of generating systems with wind
energy sources is a complex process. It requires an accurate wind speed forecasting technique for the
wind farm site. The method requires historical wind speed data collected over many years for the
wind farm location to determine the necessary parameters of the wind speed models for the
particular site [3]. The evaluation process should also accurately model the intermittent nature of
power output from the wind farm. For the data analysis excel data analysis tool is used and
probability distribution of wind speeds are calculated [10]. This study shows the system availability
for the generation of power from wind turbine generators installed at the Hanamasagar, a village
near Gajendragada of Karnataka State.
PVPF tool: an automated web application for real-time photovoltaic power fore...IJECEIAES
In this paper, we propose a fully automated machine learning based forecasting system, called Photovoltaic Power Forecasting (PVPF) tool, that applies optimised neural networks algorithms to real-time weather data to provide 24 hours ahead forecasts for the power production of solar photovoltaic systems installed within the same region. This system imports the real-time temperature and global solar irradiance records from the ASU weather station and associates these records with the available solar PV production measurements to provide the proper inputs for the pre-trained machine learning system along with the records’ time with respect to the current year. The machine learning system was pre-trained and optimised based on the Bayesian Regularization (BR) algorithm, as described in our previous research, and used to predict the solar power PV production for the next 24 hours using weather data of the last five consecutive days. Hourly predictions are provided as a power/time curve and published in real-time at the website of the renewable energy center (REC) of Applied Science Private University (ASU). It is believed that the forecasts provided by the PVPF tool can be helpful for energy management and control systems and will be used widely for the future research activities at REC.
Large Scale Grid Integration of Renewable Energy Sources - Way ForwardSpark Network
A detailed report on the recommended methodology for the effective integration of Renewable Energy Projects with the Grid has been published by Central Electricity Authority.
Loss issue is significant in power system since it affects the operation of power system, which ultimately can be translated to monetary effect. Incremental demand that explicitly adding the reactive load causes extra heating losses in the transmission circuit. Without appropriate remedial control, the temperature increase on transmission line cable would end with insulation failure. This phenomenon can be alleviated with a proper compensation scheme that provides optimal solution along with avoidance of under-compensation or over-compensation. Evolutionary Programming (EP) has been recognised as one of the powerful optimisation technique, applied in solving power system problems. Nevertheless, EP is an old technique that sometimes could reach to a settlement that is not fully satisfied. Thus, the need fora new approach to improve the setback is urgent. This paper presents immunized-evolutionary algorithm based technique for loss control in transmission system with multi-load increment. The classical EP was integrated with immune algorithm so as to reduce the computational burden experienced by the classical EP.The algorithm has been tested on an IEEE 12-Bus System and IEEE 14-Bus System.Comparative study was conducted between EP and IEP in terms of optimisation performance. The optimal size and location of PV determined by IEP was able to control the loss in transmission system when the load increases. Results obtained from the studies revealed the merit of the proposed IEP; indicating its feasibility for future implementation in practical system.
Sizing of Hybrid PV/Battery Power System in Sohag cityiosrjce
This paper gives the feasibility analysis of PV- Battery system for an off-grid power station in Sohag
city. Hybrid PV-battery system was used for supplying a combined pumping and residential load. A simple cost
effective method for sizing stand-alone PV hybrid systems was introduced. The aim of sizing hybrid system is to
determine the cost effective PV configuration and to meet the estimated load at minimum cost. This requires
assessing the climate conditions which determine the temporal variation of the insolation in Sohag city. Sizing
of the hybrid system components was investigated using RETscreen and HOMER programs. The sizing software
tools require a set of data on energy resource demand and system specifications. The energy cost values of the
hybrid system agrees reasonably with those published before.
Prediction of the Power Output of Solar Cells Using Neural Networks: Solar Ce...CSCJournals
The prediction of the output power of solar cells in a given place has always been an important factor in planning the installation of solar cell panels, and guiding electrical companies to control, manage and distribute the energy into their electricity networks properly. The production of the electricity sector in Palestine using solar cells is a promising sector; this paper proposes a model which is used to predict future output power values of solar cells, which provides individuals and companies with future information, so they can organize their activities. We aim to create a model that able to connect time, place, and the relations between randomly distributed solar energy units. The system analyzes collected data from units through solar cells distributed in different places in Palestine. Multilayer Feed-Forward with Backpropagation Neural Networks (MFFNNBP) is used to predict the power output of the solar cells in different places in Palestine. The model depends on predicting the future produce of the power output of solar cell depending on the real power output of the previous values. The data used in this paper depends on data collection of one day, month, and year. Finally, this proposed model conduct a systematic process with the aim of determining the most suitable places for an installation solar cell panel in different places in Palestine.
A number of factors are contributing to increases in renewable energy production in the United
States (and beyond). These factors include rapidly declining costs of electricity produced from
renewable energy sources, regulatory and policy obligations and incentives, and moves to reduce
pollution from fossil fuel-based power generation, including greenhouse gas emissions. While
not all renewable energy sources are variable, two such technologies – wind and solar PV –
currently dominate the growth of renewable electricity production. The production from wind
and solar PV tries to capture the freely available but varying amount of wind and solar
irradiance. As the share of electricity produced from variable renewable resources grows, so does
the need to integrate these resources in a cost-effective manner, i.e., to ensure that total
electricity production from all sources including variable renewable generation equals electricity
demand in real time. Also, a future electric system characterized by a rising share of renewable
energy will likely require concurrent changes to the existing transmission and distribution
(T&D) infrastructure. While this report does not delve into that topic, utilities, grid operators
and regulators must carefully plan for needed future investments in T&D, given the lead times
and complexities involved.
Optimal Configuration of Wind Farms in Radial Distribution System Using Parti...journalBEEI
Recently, a wide range of wind farm based distributed generations (DGs) are being integrated into distribution systems to fulfill energy demands and to reduce the burden on transmission corridors. The non-optimal configuration of DGs could severely affect the distribution system operations and control. Hence, the aim of this paper is to analyze the wind data in order to build a mathematical model for power output and pinpoint the optimal location. The overall objective is minimization of power loss reduction in distribution system. The five years of wind data was taken from 24o 44’ 29” North, 67o 35’ 9” East coordinates in Pakistan. The optimal location for these wind farms were pinpointed via particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm using standard IEEE 33 radial distribution system. The result reveals that the proposed method helps in improving renewable energy near to load centers, reduce power losses and improve voltage profile of the system. Moreover, the validity and performance of the proposed model were also compared with other optimization algorithms.
Optimal design of adaptive power scheduling using modified ant colony optimi...IJECEIAES
For generating and distributing an economic load scheduling approach, artificial neural network (ANN) has been introduced, because power generation and power consumption are economically non-identical. An efficient load scheduling method is suggested in this paper. Normally the power generation system fails due to its instability at peak load time. Traditionally, load shedding process is used in which low priority loads are disconnected from sources. The proposed method handles this problem by scheduling the load based on the power requirements. In many countries the power systems are facing limitations of energy. An efficient optimization algorithm is used to periodically schedule the load demand and the generation. Ant colony optimization (ACO) based ANN is used for this optimal load scheduling process. The present work analyse the technical economical and time-dependent limitations. Also the works meets the demanded load with minimum cost of energy. Inorder to train ANN back propagation (BP) technics is used. A hybrid training process is described in this work. Global optimization algorithms are used to provide back propagation with good initial connection weights.
Development of a Cost Effective Power Generation System: An Overviewijeei-iaes
This paper presents an overview on development of cost effective power generation system and motivates for development of a model for hybrid system with wind to investigate the combined operation of wind with different sources to cater to wind’s stochastic nature for imbalance minimization and optimal operation. Development of model for trading power in competitive electricity market and development of strategies for trading in electricity markets (wind energy and reserves markets) to investigate the effects of real time pricing tariffs on electricity market operation has been illustrated in this paper. Dynamic modelling related studies to investigate the wind generator’s kinetic energy for primary frequency support using simulink and simulation studies on doubly fed induction generator to study its capability during small disturbances / fluctuations on power system have been described.
POTENTIAL STUDY ADDRESSING SHORTAGE OF POWER AND ECONOMIC GROWTH THROUGH FORE...IAEME Publication
India is densely populated and has high solar insolation, an ideal combination for using solar power in India. India is already a leader in wind power generation. India is now one of the top five solar energy developments worldwide as per Ernst & Young’s renewable energy attractiveness index. As per report by WATO-India, 2012, the Indian Renewable Energy business market is experiencing a growth rate of 15 %/yr and the opportunities for private investments are estimated to
be of about USD 34 billion.
Flexibility requirement for large-scale renewable energy integration in India...Power System Operation
Reliable and stable power system operation requires flexibility, in addition to capacity adequacy. Traditional
system components either have limited flexibility to suppress extensive system variation, or their role is limited
due to lack of proper regulatory provisions and inefficient market design. Large-scale integration of renewable
energy (RE) resources (e.g., solar, wind) imposes additional variability and uncertainty to the existing system
and thus enhances flexibility need. There are various solutions to the problem. Revamping system operation
protocol with existing resources, retrofitting current power-generating assets, network expansion, etc. can
provide flexible service. Investing in a new type of resources like energy storage and demand-side response
(DSR) however, needs aggressive policy interventions and market mechanisms. Identifying suitable flexible
resources and designing appropriate policy structures require long-term system planning. Traditional methods
in this regard need to evolve to consider the operation-scale impact of large-scale RE integration at the planning
stage such that long-term carbon emission reduction targets can be met. The approach towards transitioning
into a flexible energy system can differ according to its present status. This paper focuses on the Indian power
sector’s perspective, which has ambitious RE integration goals. With a fast-evolving system configuration,
flexibility related challenges are high in India due to weak infrastructure, inefficient regulatory policies, and
aggregated planning methods. This article presents the current status of the Indian power system detailing
existing technology types, regulatory norms, and future targets. It further details a comprehensive review
of relevant technical options, market mechanisms and planning approaches for transitioning into a flexible
power system for India. Comparative analysis with international experiences highlights the need for a major
paradigm shift. A short-term transition towards becoming a flexible system can focus on developing adequate
transmission infrastructure, exploit available pumped hydro storage potential and retrofitting existing coal-fired
power plants. On longer-term, innovating market mechanisms and regulatory changes should drive investment
into emerging flexible resources like DSR, storage, etc.
IRJET-A Review of Renewable Energy Scenario in India
Forecasting and Scheduling of Wind and Solar Power generation in India
1. Session: Reduce/Renewable/Reuse/
Retrofit/Rebuild
GETS 2016 ID NO #
Forecasting and Scheduling of Wind and Solar Power generation in India
Brief Abstract: Wind and solar energy are the major components of renewable energy
in India but the variability and unpredictability inherent to wind and solar power raise a
number of issues associated with grid integration. The integration of significant wind and
solar energy into existing supply system is a challenge for large scale renewable energy
penetration; hence the day-ahead and short-term renewable energy forecasting is needed
to effectively integrate renewable power to the grid. As per CERC regulation, FOR
regulation and different state regulations, day-ahead forecasting and scheduling of wind
and solar energy is required to be submitted by IPPs and hence the forecasting and
scheduling of renewable energy has become a widely pursued areas of research at
Indian context. Though there are different methods in forecasting renewable power
generation, in this paper, we are showing how the mixed approach technique using
artificial intelligence, the algorithm of which are developed by del2infinity, is useful in
forecasting of wind and solar power generation. Since the regulation deals with the
deviation settlement mechanism due to erroneous forecast results, this paper also shows
the theoretical structure and simple penalty calculation methodology using probabilistic
model for different scenarios of forecast accuracy. The approximate statistical model
correlating forecast accuracy and penalty due to erroneous forecast can act as an
essential tool in maximizing the energy accuracy to minimize the penalty due to deviation.
Author: Abhik Kumar Das
Abhik holds a Dual Degree (B.Tech in Electronics & Electrical
Communication Engineering & M.Tech in Automation and
Computer Vision) from Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur,
India. He has a vast experience in computational modelling of
complex systems. He contributed in different verticals of analytical
modelling related to renewable energy and techno-economics and
published several well-cited research articles in internationally
acknowledged journals and peer-reviewed conferences. He is founding member of
del2infinity, an accurate Wind Energy & Solar Energy Forecasting and Scheduling
Solutions Company. (e-mail: contact@del2infinity.xyz).
2. Distributed with permission of author(s) by GETS 2016. Published at GETS 2016 http://www.NTPCGETS.com
Abstract— Due to the non-availability of sufficient resources and considerable amount of emission of pollutants from
commercial energy generation, renewable energy has been high on Indian policymakers’ agenda for enabling the country`s
transition to a sustainable energy future. Wind and solar energy are the major components of renewable energy in India but the
variability and unpredictability inherent to wind and solar power raise a number of issues associated with grid integration. With
increasing penetration of wind and solar power having unscheduled fluctuations, wind and solar power creates a threat to grid
reliability due to balancing challenge in load and generation. The integration of significant wind and solar energy into existing
supply system is a challenge for large scale renewable energy penetration; hence the day-ahead and short-term renewable
energy forecasting is needed to effectively integrate renewable power to the grid. As per CERC regulation, FOR regulation and
different state regulations, day-ahead forecasting and scheduling of wind and solar energy is required to be submitted by IPPs
and hence the forecasting and scheduling of renewable energy has become a widely pursued areas of research at Indian
context. Though there are different methods in forecasting renewable power generation, in this paper, we are showing how the
mixed approach technique using artificial intelligence, the algorithm of which are developed by del2infinity, is useful in
forecasting of wind and solar power generation. Since the regulation deals with the deviation settlement mechanism due to
erroneous forecast results, this paper also shows the theoretical structure and simple penalty calculation methodology using
probabilistic model for different scenarios of forecast accuracy. The approximate statistical model correlating forecast
accuracy and penalty due to erroneous forecast can act as an essential tool in maximizing the energy accuracy to minimize the
penalty due to deviation.
Index Terms— Wind, Solar, Forecasting, Penalty, Energy Accuracy
I. INTRODUCTION
Energy is a vital requirement for social and economic development of a nation. One of the major indices of
improved quality of life is per capita energy consumption which has been rising steadily in India, though a
considerable amount of villages are without power even today [1]. Due to the socio-economic development, the
demand of energy has multiplied manifold and this demand can be no longer satisfied by the traditional energy
technology using local resources only and to envision energizing the rural and urban area with high energy
demand, renewable energy is being seen as a transformative solution to meet energy demand as well as
economic challenges. For a sustainable energy future, not only the energy demand but amount of emission of
pollutants from commercial energy generation is a crucial issue; and considering National Action Plan on Climate
Change [2], Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) [3], renewable energy (RE) goals [4], India‟s national
policies and other initiatives encourage renewable and clean energy for various applications. At present, India has
a target of 175 Giga Watt (GW) of installed capacity from renewable energy by 2022, of which 100GW is to come
from solar, 60GW from wind [4]. In addition, India‟s NDC goal is to achieve 40% of total installed power generation
capacity from renewable energy by 2030 [3] and therefore, a great interest in adopting green energy technologies
in the country [5]. However, the large-scale deployment of renewable energy technology involves a combination of
interventions involving policy and regulatory mechanisms, technological solutions and institutional structures.
Abhik Kumar Das is Director of del2infinity Energy Consulting Pvt. Ltd., India. He is a B.Tech & M.Tech (Dual Degree) from IIT Kharagpur
and working in the domain of computational modeling of complex systems for last 12 years. (e-mail: contact@del2infinity.xyz).
Forecasting and Scheduling of Wind and Solar Power generation in India
Abhik Kumar Das
3. Distributed with permission of author(s) by GETS 2016. Published at GETS 2016 http://www.NTPCGETS.com
The conversion of wind energy to the electrical energy is generally done by wind turbine. The wind stream
produces aerodynamic forces on the turbine blades to rotate and capture the kinetic energy contained in the wind.
The captured energy depending on power curve [6-8] of the turbine is transferred through a gearbox to an
electrical power generator, which sends the power into the electrical grid system. Similarly, depending on current
voltage characteristics of solar cells [9-11], the solar energy is converted into electrical energy which is transferred
in to the electrical grid system. Since the energy generated using wind and solar is depended on natural
phenomena and shows stochastic behaviour in generation patterns [12, 13], the wind and solar power generated
is intermittent in nature and highly variable depending on the different parameters of nature. Due to the
intermittency and variability, wind and solar energy shows ramping patterns in renewable energy generation and
hence the large penetration of renewable energy creates instability in existing grid unless proper forecasting and
scheduling is performed.
The demand supply characteristics of complex grid network are a crucial issue for power management. Utility
system planning and operations for both generation and transmission can be affected by wind and power with its
increasing penetration. Since wind and solar power are inherently intermittent and comes with large amount of
unscheduled fluctuations, balancing load and generation creates a great threat to grid reliability. Forecasting is an
essential requirement of variable renewable energy for grid stability as the major purpose of forecasting is to
reduce the uncertainty of renewable generation, so that its variability can be more precisely accommodated.
The concept of forecasting and scheduling of renewable energy generators and the commercial settlement was
introduced in Indian context by CERC through Indian Electricity Grid Code (IEGC), 2010 [14] and the Renewable
Regulatory Fund mechanism [15] was envisaged to be implemented from January 1, 2011. Due to several
implementation issues, the mechanism was never made operational. To formulate an implementable framework,
CERC on 31.03.2015 issued a draft Amendments. Based on comments and suggestions received from various
stakeholders, CERC published the third amendment to IEGC which is issued on 07.08.2015. On the same date
CERC also issued 2nd amendment to regulation for Deviation settlement mechanism and other related matters
[16]. Since the system operators in India have to do curtailment on variable renewable energy due to intermittency
and variability of the wind and solar power generation, the forecasting takes an important role in creating a
sustainable solution for maximum utilization of renewable energy. After CERC regulation, Forum of Regulators
(FOR) [17] and other state regulators issued or drafted regulation related to the forecasting and scheduling of
Wind and Solar power. Apart from regulatory framework, this paper concentrates on the forecasting methodology
and penalty due to regulations related to forecasting and scheduling of wind and solar energy.
The remaining of the paper is organized as follows: In Section II, the variability of wind and solar energy is
discussed using empirical functional relationship. Section III describes the accuracy of forecasting and scheduling
and its effect on penalty due to deviation considering the regulation. The forecasting methodology and brief results
are shown in Section IV and the conclusion is presented in Section V.
II. VARIABILITY OF WIND & SOLAR ENERGY
Wind and solar energy is stochastic in nature and while discussing about the planning and operation of the power
grid, variability and uncertainty plays a crucial role. Variability of power represents the change of generation output
due to fluctuations of wind or sun while uncertainty describes the inability to predict in advance the changes in
4. Distributed with permission of author(s) by GETS 2016. Published at GETS 2016 http://www.NTPCGETS.com
generation output. Large unscheduled changes in wind or solar output are called ramp events and they hamper
the penetration of variable power in the existing grid. The variability can be quantified as a measure of dispersion
in variable renewable power generation and be easily quantified using the concept of Lorenz curve [18]. Though
there exists different ways to quantify variability, the ratio based model can be useful to measure variability for
computational feasibility. The analytical representation of variability depends on the stochastic variable
defined as [12],
(1)
for t = 0, 1, 2,….. T – Δt. Here P(t + Δt) is the power generation at a time Δt ahead of t and Δt >0. If P(t) = 0, we
can assume that the value is defined and can take a very high value ( tends to infinity ) and the minimum
value of is 0 as . Since the ramp up (ramp-down) events are defined when the rate power
change is positive (negative) [19-23], using we can say that,
for ramp-down events (2.A)
for ramp-up events (2.B)
Let consider the cumulative distribution of as H(μ) which represents the probability that the value of is
equal or lower than a certain value μ i.e.
{ } (3)
The probability distribution H(μ) depends on plant characteristics and the functional relationship is different for
wind and solar.
A. Wind Variability Distribution
The functional form of H(μ) defined in (3) for wind power generation approximately follows the empirical relation
[19],
(4)
Here K(Δt) is a model parameter which depends on the plant characteristics and can have seasonal variation. The
wind power actual generation and the distribution are shown in fig. 1.
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(a) (b)
(c)
Fig 1. (a) shows the wind power data W(t) for the state of Karnataka, India from July, 2010 to September, 2011 and (b) shows
the of W(t) for Δt = 5. (c) shows the wind power distribution H(μ). The horizontal axis represents the values of μ and the
vertical axis shows the probability values of H(μ).
B. Solar Variability Distribution
For solar power generation, the functional form of H(μ) defined in (3) approximately follows the empirical relation
as,
{ } if
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{ } if (5)
The solar power actual generation and the distribution are shown in fig. 2.
(a) (b)
Fig 2: (a) Solar power output of two different days and (b) of respective days and (c) shows H(μ) of two different
days. The dotted marker shows the actual data and the lines show the distribution using (4)
III. ACCURACY OF FORECASTING & SCHEDULING AND PENALTY DUE TO DEVIATION
Due to variability and uncertainty, forecasting is an important aid to effective and efficient planning; The
forecasting and scheduling strategy in variable renewable energy is an important factor in grid stability for high
penetration of wind and solar energy. Though the scheduling is mandatory with effect from January 1, 2012 in
India, earlier this year, the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) introduced a robust framework to
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strengthen forecasting in the renewable sector in India. The CERC also issued the Indian Electricity Grid Code
(Third Amendment) Regulations, 2015 and Deviation Settlement Mechanism and related matters (Second
Amendment), Regulations 2015. Some useful features of the mechanism are :
The mechanism shall be applicable to wind and solar generators.
The maximum number of revisions has been increased from 8 to 16.
The penalties for deviation have been computed as per Power Purchase Agreements and shall be levied
for any deviation beyond +/-15%
According to the CERC Interstate mechanism notified vide notification no. 1/14/2015-Reg.Aff.(FSDS)(ii)/CERC
Dated: 07.08.2015 and F.O.R Model regulation dated 05.11.2015 by forum of regulators, the forecasting error
can be defined as
(6)
According to regulation the generalised structure penalty due to deviation can be represented as follows:
Table I: Generalized Structure of Deviation charge
Error Band Deviation Charge
per kw-Hr (Rs)
PPA Based Fixed
| | No penalty 0
| | 10% of PPA INR 0.50
| | 20% of PPA INR 1.00
| | 30% of PPA INR 1.50
Here the value of m, m1 and m2 takes different value for different regulations and can differ for wind and solar or
can differ for existing and new commissioned projects, but interestingly the following equation holds for all existing
regulations,
(7)
For example for CERC regulation, m = 15%, m1 = 25% and m2 = 25% for wind and solar.
A. Accuracy of Forecasting & Scheduling
Considering the error defined in (6), the temporal accuracy of forecasting for each day can be calculated as
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(8)
where m takes value 15% for CERC and can differ for other regulations.
Unlike temporal behaviour, the energy based performance criteria can be defined as:
Net Accuracy in Energy = | | (9.A)
Deviated Energy in % = ∑ (9.B)
Where,
R1 = Range1: Deviation in between m % to m1 % of AvC.
R2 = Range2: Deviation in between m1 % to m2 % of AvC.
R3 = Range3: Deviation greater than m2 % of AvC.
B. Penalty due to Deviation
It is required to calculate the approximate average cost of penalties for deviation of wind power forecasting.
Without showing the detailed statistical analysis, this article shows some important statistical relations and
approximations to measure the cost of penalty. For simplification let consider,
C = average cost per available capacity
c(e) = cost of penalty due to error e where error in new regulation is defined as , here AvC =
available capacity, xa = actual power and xf = forecast power
If h(e) represents the probability distribution of error e, it is easy to show that the cost per available capacity can
be represented as,
∫ (10)
For a good forecasting with maximum 16 revision, we can consider that the mean of distribution h(e) is
approximately 0, variance is and h(- e) = h(e). Considering the no penalty band as [-m,+m], we can consider
the deviation charge follows an linear relation as
| | if | | (11)
= 0 , otherwise
Using some algebraic manipulation we can show that
[ ∫ ] (12)
The integral part of the right hand side of the previous equation can be approximated and with some basic
approximation we can state that
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[ ] (13)
Where
∫ (14)
Here represents the probability that the absolute error |e| lies in [0, m]. Considering the Table II, we can
state that
(15)
Hence, the average cost per available capacity can be represented as,
[ ] (16)
Table II: Error band and slab wise Penalty for given Probability Values
Deviation Charge
per kw-Hr (Rs)
Error Band Mean Value Probability Slab wise Penalty
PPA Based Fixed
No penalty 0 | | NA
10% of PPA INR 0.50 | |
20% of PPA INR 1.00 | |
30% of PPA INR 1.50 | |
IV. FORECASTING & SCHEDULING SOLUTION OF WIND AND SOLAR POWER BY
Due to stochastic behavior of wind and solar power generation and the variability distribution of power, the
prediction of ramping patterns creates uncertainties in forecasting. Though numerous models are available using
different methodology, a good forecast captures the genuine patterns which exist in the historical data, but do not
replicate past events that will not occur again.
A. Forecasting & Scheduling Solution
The del2infinity Forecasting System is developed considering India-specific situations where access to possible
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and necessary wind/solar power prediction data is a major issue. The system has been created considering the
non-availability of some parameter data in many cases. However, the system is capable of accommodating and
optimizing on additional data when available. We believe in using the available data intelligently instead of asking
for more data that may not be available.
We uses Power to Power (P2P) algorithm as the basic functional module of the analytics engine. In this module
the input is only the wind/solar-power time series data (aggregated or plant level). The analytics engine uses
different statistical pattern matching and ANN algorithms to fetch different statistical information related to the
wind/solar power data. The P2P algorithm generates different patterns in wind/solar power data as well as
information on wind/solar power ramping events. The system forecasts the next day‟s wind/solar power output in
15 minute time blocks. The P2P algorithm does not use wind speed/radiation (like DNI) or weather related data to
ensure system performance when there is lack of such data.
The power to power („P2P‟) forecast methodology developed by us is used to forecast the solar and wind power
data points. The P2P forecast methodology works better if there is no curtailment issue. But the curtailment issue
of one day creates erroneous forecast in next day and affects next few days if only P2P Artificial Intelligence („AI‟)
system is used. Hence though the proposed methodology uses P2P AI system, two parallel weather feedback
loops are introduced to adapt the system. One feedback loop is used for pattern matching using support vector
machine („SVM‟) and the other loop is used to measure the stochastic variation of power input. The analytics
engine also has a number of feedback loops that use wind/solar and weather data. Data used in these feedback
loops can include numerical weather prediction variables (e.g. forecasted wind speed, direction, and pressure /
DNI, ambient temperature etc) and weather observations. These parallel feedback loops are activated only when
these data are available.
B. Results
The Forecast and scheduling system is used for generation power prediction of different solar and wind power
projects and shows encouraging results minimizing the penalty due to deviation mechanism. As shown in figure
3(a) the forecast of wind power without any revision shows satisfactory results for 103 MW plant in India. The
accuracy can be further increased with multiple revisions. Figure 3(b) shows an outcome of the forecasting
system of a solar plant of capacity 40 MW.
(a)
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(b)
Fig 3: Actual and schedule generation of (a) wind power plant and (b) solar power plant in India
C. Penalty Analysis
The monthly penalty due to deviation is analyzed for different wind and solar plants. A sample analysis for wind
and solar plants are shown here in Table III and IV for an easy understanding.
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Table III: Monthly Penalty of 27 MW Wind Plant in India
Table IV: Monthly Penalty of 10 MW Solar Plant in India
V. CONCLUSION
Forecasting and scheduling is an essential requirement for grid stability and a sustainable energy future of India.
This paper describes the result oriented forecasting and scheduling solution which optimizes the penalty due to
deviation considering the existing regulations. The variability of wind and solar energy is briefly described to
understand the necessity of forecasting; and a computational framework of penalty due to deviation is analyzed in
this paper. Some examples and analysis regarding the actual and scheduled generation of power for wind and
solar plants in India are presented showing the feasibility of forecasting and scheduling regulation of India with
satisfactory level of accuracy. Though there is a paucity of historical data and the data related to weather
parameters of different solar and wind plants in India, but our system shows encouraging results and will be
evolved in future with better accuracy.
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