This document outlines a discussion on the future of food in 2040. It presents a hypothesis that global wealth creation will drive demand for functional foods that align with consumer health and wellness strategies. The objective is to define opportunities arising from convergence of multiple interacting factors in the food system. Outcomes will include stakeholders activating action plans incorporating this new vision of how they can benefit from advances in food. The discussion will cover topics like emerging technologies, consumer trends in Asia, the competitive landscape, infrastructure changes, and environmental impacts of global growth.

1. Presented
by:
Geoffrey
Wiggin
Minister-­‐Counselor,
FAS/Tokyo

2. Discussion
Guide
• Food
2040—Hypothesis,
ObjecHve,
Outcomes
• Technology
Convergence—Consumer
of
the
Future
• Vision
of
Future
State
Requirements
• The
Research
• Moving
Ahead/
Wrap-­‐Up

3. Hypothesis
Global
wealth
creaHon
will
drive
the
emergence
of
affluent
consumers
who
will
demand
func%onal
foods
that
align
with
their
health
and
wellness
lifestyle
strategies.

4. ObjecHve
Food
2040
will
provide
decision-­‐makers
a
catalyst
to
define
a
shared
understanding
of
the
infinite
opportuni%es
that
will
arise
in
the
food
system
due
to
the
convergence
of
mulHple
interacHng
factors.

5. Outcomes
Food
2040
stakeholders
will
put
research
results
to
work
in
framing
and
acHvaHng
acHon
plans
that
incorporate
this
new
vision
and
will
begin
to
define
how
they
will
benefit
from
the
next
quantum
leap
in
food.

6. Who
will
benefit
from
the
next
quantum
leap
in
food?
• Who
will
meet
the
needs
of
this
future
consumer
and
profit
from
new
opportuniHes?
• How
will
our
food
producHon
system
evolve
to
meet
these
needs?
• How
should
our
global
regulatory
policy
systems
transform
to
meet
these
needs?

7. Technology
Convergence—
Consumer
of
the
Future

8. Technology
Convergence—
Consumer
of
the
Future
Next
GeneraHon
Cultured
Foods
Biotechnology
Consumer
Driven
Nanotechnology
Nutrigenomics

9. Vision
of
Future
State
Requirements
Today
Future
Commodity-­‐based
system
Identity-preserved system

10. Vision
of
Future
State
Requirements
Today
Future
Few
large
commercial
600+ firms seeking to
global
registrants
of
register transgenic and
biotech
transgenic
events
novel technology events

11. Vision
of
Future
State
Requirements
Today
Future
Compartmentalized
Integrated medical, food and
nutriHon
and
wellness
genomics models that are
model
infinite and evolve exponentially

12. Vision
of
Future
State
Requirements
Today
Future
AnHquated
t
ransportaHon
A highly sophisticated modern
systems
transportation and infrastructure
system

13. Vision
of
Future
State
Requirements
Today
Future
Middle
class
development
Middle class with means to be
focused
on
caloric
increasingly discerning about
increase
food choices

14. Vision
of
Future
State
Requirements
The
future
is
about
the
global
caloric
needs
required
to
feed
9
billion
people
and
planning
for
macro
protein
and
energy
demands
The
more
compelling
opportunity
for
food
system
stakeholders
to
expand
margins
may
be
by
targeHng
exciHng
new
consumer-­‐driven
idenHty-­‐
preserved
markets

15. Research
Process
and
Methodology

16. Research
Theme
1
Food
and
Technology—Biotech
and
Agricultural
InnovaHon
• Biotech
acceleraHon
• Cheap
genomics
• Specialty
GM
crops
• Biosensors
• High-­‐intensity
agriculture
• AutomaHc
agriculture
• Biopharming

17. Research
Theme
2
Consumer
Trends—Upper
and
Middle
Class
Asia
• Middle
class
growth
• UrbanizaHon
• Gray
Asia
• Changing
diets
• Diseases
of
affluence

18. Research
Theme
3
CompeHHve
and
Policy/Regulatory
Landscape—
Evolving
Issues
and
Standards
• Chinese
wages
rising
• Regulatory
capacity
• China
ascending
the
food
value
chain
• CounterfeiHng,
adulteraHon,
and
intellectual
property
• Asian
credit
crises
• Rising
transparency
• Asian
freight
infrastructure

19. Research
Theme
4
Agriculture
Food
DistribuHon
and
Packaging—
TransportaHon
and
Infrastructure
• Infrastructure
build-­‐out
• Rising
volumes
• Energy
costs
• IdenHfy
preservaHon
and
traceability
• Shiaing
product
mixes
• Smart
packaging

20. Research
Theme
5
Environment
and
Resources—
Impacts
of
Global
Growth
• Water
scarcity
• Soil
depleHon
• Scarce
ferHlizer
• China’s
shrinking
farmland
• Global
fishery
depleHon
• Food
insecurity

21. Thank
You