The document analyzes factors that may impact the exchange rates of EUR/AUD and EUR/VND over the next six months to help BIDV bank maximize profits. It finds that: 1) Vietnam's GDP growth and interest rates are forecasted to be higher than the Euro area's in the next six months, suggesting the VND will appreciate against the EUR. 2) Australia's inflation and GDP growth are expected to be higher than the Euro area's, but its interest rates will be lower, implying the AUD will depreciate against the EUR. 3) Taking advantage of these forecasts, BIDV bank could profit over 2.85 million AUD by six

1. 2014
RMIT
University
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[CURRENCY EVALUATION]
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contents of the document. Type the abstract of the document here. The abstract is typically a
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2. 1
I. Exclusive summary
The foreign exchange report is prepared by BIDV’s Treasury team. The function of this
report is to analyze the variation of the exchange rate of EUR/AUD and EUR/VND over the
two-year period from 2013 to 2014. Moreover, the most important economic factors such as
Inflation Rate, GDP Annual Growth Rate, Real Interest Rate, Government Intervention and
Commodity Price, which impact the future exchange rate, will be methodically evaluated. As
the team identifies these elements, VND will appreciate compared to AUD and EUR in the
next six months. The exchange rates of EUR/AUD and EUR/VND are forecasted to be 1.48
and 25,746 respectively. From these points, the team will make a profit of more than 2.85
million AUD for BIDV by taking the advantage of the appreciation of VND.Introduction
II. Introduction
BIDV bank which was founded on 26th April 1957 known as the oldest commercial bank in
Vietnam (BIDV 2014). Moreover, it is top five largest commercial banks owned by the
government (Vietnam online 2011). According to Gaffin (2012), BIDV which was the second
largest bank after Agribank owned credit market share of 11.4%. In 2014, BIDV has become
a representative for Asia to receive a reward for the title “Best Commercial Bank” (Hanoi
time 2014).
This report mainly concentrates on foreign exchange rate when BIDV bank acts as price
maker. Our team picks up two pair currencies as EUR/VND and EUR/AUD to trade for
BIDV that help our organization to maximize possible profit in the next six months. Firstly,
we describe the past exchange rate from 2013 to 2014.Then, this report also analyzes all the
factors that affect the exchange rate including inflation, GDP growth rate, interest rate,
government intervention as well as special market factors to predict the forecast exchange.
Finally, trading strategy and possible risks will be functionally performed.
III. Past performance
1. EUR/AUD

3. 2
Figure 1. Adapted from xe.com n.d.
During the last two years from December 2012 to December 2014, the exchange rate of
EUR/AUD has increased dramatically from 1.2452 to 1.4662 AUD respectively.
Over the first three months of 2013, the exchange rate fell steadily to a low of 1.2237 in
March. The reason of this substantial drop is that the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained
the interest rate at the higher rate than other developed countries in the period (Woodington
2013). To illustrate, the interest rate of AUD in 1st
quarter of 2013 is 3% while Euro Area one
is nearly 0.8% (Appendix 1). Nevertheless, there is an upward trend in the following months
and hit a peak of 1.57329 in January 2014, which results in the appreciation of EUR and
depreciation of AUD. This can be explained by the All Ordinaries Gold Index diminishing
quickly between 4,204.85 in April 2013 and 2,197.78 in January 2014 (Appendix 2). The
exchange rate between EUR and AUD decreased significantly between 1st
quarter and 3rd
quarter of 2014, but rose in the last months. Overall, AUD much more depreciated in
comparison with EUR and is forecasted to continually rise in the future.
2. EUR/VND

4. 3
Figure 2. Adapted from xe.com n.d.
The value of VND over the past two years has risen moderately from 27,074 (December
2012) to 26,659 per 1 EUR (December 2014).
Although the exchange rate of EUR/VND in the 1st
quarter of 2013 dropped considerably,
there is a rapid growth in the next months and VND has the lowest value in May 2014.
However, from mid-year 2014 to now, Vietnam’s GDP annual growth rate has recovered
expressively from 5.42% to the highest point at 6.19% after going down intensely between 4th
quarter of 2013 and 1st
quarter of 2014 (Appendix 3). In a consequence, the exchange rate
between EUR and VND began to decline steadily. In short, VND’s value is increasing
compared to EUR.
IV. Market view
1. Inflation rate
Inflation rate (%) Average
( Appendix 4 )
Q4 (2014) Q1(2015) Q2(2015)
Australia 2.57 2.60 2.60 2.68
European area 0.94 0.27 0.28 0.25
Vietnam 5.5 2.49 2.37 2.74
Figure 3. Adapted from Trading Economics, World Bank and Statista 2014
European Area and Viet Nam
Vietnam’s inflation rate is 2.49% in the end 2014 and it will grow to 2.74% in the 2nd quarter
of 2015. In contrast, the Euro area’s inflation trend tends to decrease steadily. Specifically, its

5. 4
interest rate stays roughly 0.28% in 1st quarter of 2015 and then will drop a little to 0.25% in
2nd quarter and below the average rate. To explain, Euro Central Bank (ECB) uses policies to
depreciate its inflation but the actually rate is lower the ECB’s target at 2% (Monaghan
2014). Though Vietnam’s inflation rate drops significntly compared to the average, it is still
higher when we compare with Euro area. Higher inflation will strongly affects import and
export of Vietnam because people demand less VND for buying goods. Therefore,VND will
lose its value against the EUR.
European Area and Australia
In Q4/2014, Australia’s inflation is 2.60% and its rate is predicted to have an increasing trend
in the future. To clarify, the inflation will rise to 2.68% in the 2nd quarter of 2015. An
increase in the price of domestic goods as fuel and tobacco is one of possible reasons that
leads to high inflation (Reserve Bank of Australia 2014).The increase of historical exchange
rate between EUR and AUD indicates AUD’s depreciation when Australia’s inflation rose
significantly from July 2013 to April 2014 (see Appendix 5). Hence, as there is an increase in
Australia’s forecasted inflation, demand for AUD will be less and depress its exchange rate.
Overall, Euro will appreciate against Vietnam dong and Australian dollar.
2. GDP growth rate
GDP annual
growth rate (%)
Average
(Appendix 6 )
Q4(2014) Q1(2015) Q2(2015)
Australia 2.71 3.07 3.03 2.98
Euro Area 0.18 1.31 1.17 1.02
Vietnam 5.41 5.62 5.28 5.96
Figure 4. Adapted from Trading Economics and World bank 2014
European area and Viet Nam
Though the GDP of Vietnam declined from 5.62% in the end of 2014 to 5.28% in Q1/2015, it
will be predicted to jump to 5.96% in Q2/2015. Moreover, if we look at the average growth
rate of Vietnam, the forecasted GDP will outpace and this is good for the economy. To
explain for this increase, Vietnam will concentrate on developing the services having
high value such as banking, telecommunication and IT (StoxPlus 2014). Meanwhile, the
growth rate of European area has a downward trend. To illustrate, its rate will be forecasted at

6. 5
1.02% in 2nd quarter and decreased by 0.29% comparing with the present. According to
Spiegel (2014), forecasted GDP growth rate will be lower than its expectation due to EU’s
austerity. Because the growth rate of Vietnam is higher, the capital outflow and imports will
increase which means the demand for VND increases. Hence, VND will increase its value
against EUR.
European area and Australia
In the first half of 2015, Australia’s growth rate will have a downward GDP trend. To
express, its rate slightly decreases from 3.07%to 2.98% in the 2nd quarter. This decline can
be explained by that Australian expenditure has decreased dramatically in recent years
(Martin 2014). Though the forecasted GDP growth rate decreases, it is above the average rate
of 2.71%. As Australia and Euro areas are both developed countries and GDP growth rate of
Euro area is slower, EUR will depreciate.
 EUR will depreciate against VND and AUD.
3. Interest rate
Real interest rate
(%)
Average
(Appendix 1 )
Q4(2014) Q1(2015) Q2(2015)
Australia 0.43 -0.03 -0.05 -0.08
European area -0.39 -0.22 -0.23 -0.2
Vietnam 3.3 3.66 4.03 3.51
Figure 5. Adapted from Trading Economics n.d.
The real interest rate is calculated by the nominal interest rate (see Appendix 7) minus the
inflation (see the previous part).
Euro area and Vietnam
Vietnam’s real interest rate currently is around 3.66%. Then, the real interest rate of this
nation is predicted to go up gradually by 0.37% in Q1/2015, which is followed by a steady
loss to 3.51% in Q2/2015. On the contrary, the real interest rate of European area rose from
-0.22% to -0.2% in the six-month period. According to European Central Bank (2014), a

7. 6
small decrease in interest rate as well as dramatic decline in inflation can boost the real
interest rate of Euro zone in the following months. As shown in Figure 3, both these interest
rates in Q2/2015 will be higher than the average, so this seems to be a good sign for the
economy. In addition, the real interest of Vietnam is still higher than European during the last
6 months. Consequently, VND will appreciate against EUR in the period.
Euro area and Australia
The real interest rate of Australia in the next six months is forecasted to reduce from -0.03%
in Q4/2014 to -0.08% in Q2/2015. As stated in The Australian, due to the upward trend in
unemployment rate and the stable low inflation, the Reserve Bank will diminish the interest
rates (Thieberger and AAP 2014), which leads to the decline of real interest rate in 2015.
Additionally, real interest rate is much lower than the average rate of 0.43%, so the situation
may be worse off. The results of this decreasing trend are a decline in capital inflow and an
increase in capital outflow in this country. In comparison with Australia, European area will
be a much more attractive country for investors to invest since the exchange rate is more
stable and is better compared to the average rate. This will result in that EUR appreciates
against AUD.
 EUR will depreciate to VND while appreciating to AUD in the next 6 months.
4. Government intervention
European Area
According to European Central Bank (2014), the inflation rate is lower than expected,
reaching 0.3% in September 2014. If the inflation rate continues decreasing, it will affect
negatively to debt sustainability and real growth. To solve this problem, Europe Central Bank
decides to decrease interest rate to 0.05%,a low record for Eurozone, to increase inflation..
However, a high inflation rate is one of the reason depreciation of EUR.
➢ In the next six months, EUR is predicted to depreciate.
Australia
According to Michel (2014), The Reserve Bank of Australia still holds down the interest rate
2.5% at their lowest level for next 15 months. It stimulates the spending by consumers and
companies in order to recover the mining investment recession. Even though the interest rate

8. 7
of Australia is low, many investors prefer this country to Europe that the benchmark rate is
nearly zero. Consequently, with the low interest rate, The Reserve Bank of Australia not only
solves the difficult conditions, but also raises capital inflow and demand of AUD in
comparison with EUR.
➢ AUD will appreciate against to EUR.
5. Commodity price
Vietnam
● Coffee
Figure 6. Reproduced from Economist Intelligence Unit 2014
Figure 7. Reproduced from Economist Intelligence Unit 2014
Coffee is one of the key export products in Vietnam. The total volume of coffee export only stays
behind Brazil, the world’s second important coffee exporting nation (Vietrade 2014). According to
Vietrade (2014),the volume of coffee exportrose by31.5% andthe price increased25.2% in the first
six monthsof 2014 whencomparedthe same periodin2013. Moreover,by result from drought, the
total coffee exportinBrazil decreasedsignificantly,about 16,1% compared with 2013 and expected
to continue tofall in2015 (Vietnamplus2014).It createdan opportunityforVietnamtoincrease the
price of coffee exportingtothe highestlevel.Forinstance,the price of coffee (Robusta) in 2014 was

9. 8
100c/lb and the expected price in 2015 is 110c/lb (Figure 7). As the price of export increases in the
world market, it leads to increase the value of export and the demand for VND, resulting in an
appreciation of VND.
Gold
Figure 8. Reproduced from Economist Intelligence Unit 2014
Based on this graph above, the price of gold in Australia continues decreasing slightly in the
first six months in 2014. The price of gold was down from $1,412 to $1,263 an ounce
between March and April, lower than about 25% compare the past year in the same period.
Moreover, the gold price is expected to face more downward pressure in the future
particularly the gold price in 2015 is $1,207 (Matthew 2014). In addition, Australia is among
the world’s largest exporters of gold, with annual production more than 220 tons per year
(Vneconomy 2012). As a result, the decline of gold price will cause the volume of Australian
exports falling, expecting a depreciation of AUD in relation to other currencies.
After analyzing all factors above, the major factor that is used to forecast the exchange rate is
GDP growth rate. Hence, the VND will appreciate against EUR, and EUR is also expected to
appreciate against AUD for the first half of the year 2015.
Forecast
Considering all the market elements above that can influence the exchange rates of
EUR/VND and EUR/AUD, we have come up with the anticipation that the exchange rate of
EUR/VND will decline for 1.45% and it will increase about 1.51% for EUR/AUD for the
first 6 months in 2015.

10. 9
Exchange rate forecast of EUR/VND in the next 6 months
Month EUR/VND
December 2014 ( Actual) 26,126.8
July 2015 25,746.1
Exchange rate forecast of EUR/AUD in the next 6 months
Month EUR/AUD
December 2014 ( Actual) 1.458
July 2015 1.48
Exchange rate forecast of AUD/VND in the next 6 months
Month AUD/VND
December 2014 ( Actual) 17,909.5
July 2015 17,507.4
 VND will appreciate against the EUR and AUD in the next six months.
V. Trading strategy
To make profit for BIDV bank, we will apply the forecast for the exchange rate above for
trading strategy. At the bank, we are holding 40 million AUD with the trading strategy below
would make more than 2.85 million AUD in profit for BIDV in the next six month.
Speculation
31st December 2014:
 Sell 40 million AUD and buy EUR at EUR/AUD = 1.458
➢ 40,000,000 AUD ÷ 1.458 = 27,434,842.25 EUR
 Sell 27,434,842.25 EUR and buy VND at EUR/VND = 26,126.8
➢ 27,434,842.25 EUR × 26,126.8 = 716,784,636,497 VND
❖ Lend short-term loans of 716,784,636,497 VND for period of six months to
companies such as HAGL Group, VinGroup, Hoa Sen Group, etc at 8.0 % per annum
(BIDV 2014).

11. 10
31st June 2015:
 Principal and interest amount at 31st June 2015
 716,784,636,497 VND × (1 + 0.08 × 1/2 ) = 745,456,022,000 VND
 Sell 745,456,022,000 VND and buy EUR at EUR/VND = 25,746.1
 745,456,022,000 VND ÷ 25,746.1 = 28,954,133.71 EUR
 Sell 28,954,133.71 EUR and buy AUD at EUR/AUD = 1.48
 28,954,133.71 EUR × 1.48 = 42,852,117.89 AUD
After applying trading strategy, BIDV will make a profit of: 42,852,117.89 AUD –
40,000,000 AUD = 2,852,117.89 AUD
VI. Risk anticipation
When deciding investment, risks can negatively impact the profit of the bank. Therefore, we
need to find and analyze risks to become the winner.
Firstly, the exchange rate can be affected by macroeconomics determinants like political
situations and natural disasters. Increasing tension between Russia and Ukraine can probably
cause political uncertainty and financial crisis in Europe (Thanh Van 2014). Consequently,
EUR can be depreciated in comparison with other currencies during this time. Hence, this
may negatively affect to the exchange rate.
On the other hand, BIDV also faces foreign currency liquidity risk. It can be explained by the
different lend rate between USD and VND. For instance, according to Vninvest (2014), the
annual lend rate on VND is 10% but it is only 3% on USD. Therefore, investors prefer
foreign exchange loans, particularly, the rate of foreign currency loan increased significantly
from 84.3 % in 2013 to 99.5% in 2014 (Vninvest 2014). It leads to a high pressure for BIDV.
VII. Conclusion
In conclusion, there will be a change in exchange rate between three currencies VND, EUR
and AUD. To clarify,the exchange rate of EUR/AUD will increase and decrease for
EUR/VND in the next 6 months. Hence, we have provided the trading strategy above for
BIDV to maximize its profit in the future through the speculation. However, BIDV needs to
examine risks, such as liquidity risk and natural risks, that can affect the speculation in order
to avoid the drop of the profit speculated for the future.

12. 11
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13. 12
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14. 13
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15. 14
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17. 16
IX. Appendices
Appendix 1

18. 17
Appendix 2
S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold (AUD)
Reproduced from: S&P Dow Jones Indices n.d.
Appendix 3
Appendix 5

19. 18
Appendix 4

20. 19
Appendix 6

21. 20
Appendix 7
Nominal interest
rate
Curren
t
Q4/2014 Q1/2015 Q2/2015
Australia 2.5 2.57 2.55 2.6
European area 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
Vietnam 6.15 6.15 6.4 6.25