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Beyond Zero
Carbon Housing
exploring solutions to sustainability issues
     beyond the zero carbon agenda


2 4 th O c t o b e r 2 0 1 2 a t T h e U n i v e r s i t y o f N o t t i n g h a m
Department of Architecture and Built Environment
©
     Copyright Notice
        A l l t h e m a te r i a l i n t h e s e s l i d e s
m ay n o t b e u s e d o r re p ro d u c e d w i t h o u t t h e
     ex p re s s p e r m i s s i o n o f t h e a u t h o rs
Zero Carbon Housing in a Changing Climate


Bill Gething
Beyond Zero Carbon Housing
University of Nottingham
October 2012




http://www.innovateuk.org/_assets/pdf/other-publications/tsb-climatechangereport-0510_final1.pdf
http://www.innovateuk.org/_assets/pdf/other-publications/tsb-climatechangereport-0510_final1.pdf
Headlines
            Hotter drier summers

            Wetter warmer winters

            Extreme events more likely

            Sea level rise
Environment
                                         What kind of future?




                                                                                                    Health
                                                                                     Water


                                                                                             Food




                                                                                                             Land
                      6
  Temperature: Global Mean – Change ºC
                                 5




                                                                                                                                  High
                                                                                                                                  (A1F1)
                                          New York, London, Tokyo etc threatened
                      4




                                          450 million affected by coastal flooding                                                Med
                                                                                                                                  (A1B)
          3




                                                              20-50 % extinction
                                                                                                                                  Low
                                                                                                                                   (B1)
2                     1
                      0




                                               1800                      1900                2000                          2100
Shaping the Future?          Global GHG Emissions (Gt CO2 eq/ yr)
160
140




                                                                               High
120




                                                                               (A1F1)
100
80




                                                                               Med
60




                                                                               (A1B)
40




                                                                               Low
20




                                                                                (B1)
                                                                               World
                                                                            Stabilisation
                                                                             Scenario
       2020   2030   2040   2050      2060    2070   2080    2090    2100
                                                                          (-4%/ yr from 2016)
Twin Challenges




Mitigation        Reduce emissions

Adaptation        Design for a changing climate


                  Exploit the overlap
                  Avoid the conflicts
                             …and don’t forget the Delight
Design agenda:   Comfort
                 Construction
                 Water

Context:         Regional variation + geographic specifics
                 Existing stock
                 Low carbon imperative.

Tactics:         Behavioural adaptation
                 Timing
                 Scale

                 Competition, consensus and regulation.
UK Climate Change Projections                        A probabilistic approach




                                                Median value (50%)
Probability of change




                          1          2              3                4   5
                         Change in temperature (say)

                                   10% “Very Likely” range 90%


                                         33% “Likely” 67%
                                              range
Which Climate?




    ProCLiP: London summer mean daily max temp
Design your way out of the problem?




                                      Gale and Snowdon
Design your way out of the problem?




                                      Gale and Snowdon
Design your way out of the problem?




                                      Triangle Architects
Design your way out of the problem?




                              Ground cooling with
                              solar assisted extract




                                                  Triangle Architects
Cooling tipping point   Action or reaction?
Bill Gething
with Katie Puckett




                     bill@billgething.co.uk
Beyond Zero Carbon Housing - Bill Gething

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Beyond Zero Carbon Housing - Bill Gething

  • 1. Beyond Zero Carbon Housing exploring solutions to sustainability issues beyond the zero carbon agenda 2 4 th O c t o b e r 2 0 1 2 a t T h e U n i v e r s i t y o f N o t t i n g h a m Department of Architecture and Built Environment
  • 2. © Copyright Notice A l l t h e m a te r i a l i n t h e s e s l i d e s m ay n o t b e u s e d o r re p ro d u c e d w i t h o u t t h e ex p re s s p e r m i s s i o n o f t h e a u t h o rs
  • 3. Zero Carbon Housing in a Changing Climate Bill Gething Beyond Zero Carbon Housing University of Nottingham October 2012 http://www.innovateuk.org/_assets/pdf/other-publications/tsb-climatechangereport-0510_final1.pdf
  • 5. Headlines Hotter drier summers Wetter warmer winters Extreme events more likely Sea level rise
  • 6. Environment What kind of future? Health Water Food Land 6 Temperature: Global Mean – Change ºC 5 High (A1F1) New York, London, Tokyo etc threatened 4 450 million affected by coastal flooding Med (A1B) 3 20-50 % extinction Low (B1) 2 1 0 1800 1900 2000 2100
  • 7. Shaping the Future? Global GHG Emissions (Gt CO2 eq/ yr) 160 140 High 120 (A1F1) 100 80 Med 60 (A1B) 40 Low 20 (B1) World Stabilisation Scenario 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 (-4%/ yr from 2016)
  • 8. Twin Challenges Mitigation Reduce emissions Adaptation Design for a changing climate Exploit the overlap Avoid the conflicts …and don’t forget the Delight
  • 9. Design agenda: Comfort Construction Water Context: Regional variation + geographic specifics Existing stock Low carbon imperative. Tactics: Behavioural adaptation Timing Scale Competition, consensus and regulation.
  • 10. UK Climate Change Projections A probabilistic approach Median value (50%) Probability of change 1 2 3 4 5 Change in temperature (say) 10% “Very Likely” range 90% 33% “Likely” 67% range
  • 11. Which Climate? ProCLiP: London summer mean daily max temp
  • 12. Design your way out of the problem? Gale and Snowdon
  • 13. Design your way out of the problem? Gale and Snowdon
  • 14. Design your way out of the problem? Triangle Architects
  • 15. Design your way out of the problem? Ground cooling with solar assisted extract Triangle Architects
  • 16. Cooling tipping point Action or reaction?
  • 17. Bill Gething with Katie Puckett bill@billgething.co.uk