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FAST Plan pt 9: Results (Costs and Ridership)
- 1. F.A.S.T. Plan December 2013 Financially Achievable — Saves Time An affordable approach to creating a more effective and user-friendly transit system Part IX Results: Costs & Benefits of the FAST Plan Produced under the auspices of Move San Diego, Inc., and the Scripps Ranch/Miramar Ranch North Traffic Reduction Project. © 2008 by The Mission Group © 2013 by The Mission Group Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego 1
- 2. How many people would ride transit with the FAST Plan? © 2013 by The Mission Group Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego 2
- 3. We can’t be sure, because we didn’t have access to projected data for 2050, when the County will add well over one million people, many of whom will live in “transit focus areas.” However, we did have access to data for the year 2006… © 2013 by The Mission Group Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego 3
- 4. FAST Plan Ridership (2006 Data) Service Commuter Rail (Coaster) Light Rail (SD Trolley) Light Rail (Sprinter) BRT (Core Routes) BRT (MetroXpress) Local Bus (MTS & NCTD) Streetcar Total “2006” Projected Ridership 2008 Actual Transit Ridership Gain in Ridership Likely 2050 Ridership © 2013 by The Mission Group Weekday Ridership % of Daily Trips 4,150 1% 78,000 10% 16,600 2% 180,000 23% 286,000 36% 128,000 16% 98,000 12% 790,000 100% 345,000 445,000 (130%) . > 1,000,000 Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego 4
- 5. 2006 FAST Plan Ridership Flows Many segments of the FAST Plan will carry more riders—in some places, more than 3x more—than the busiest segment of the Trolley did in 2005 (or even 2013). 2005 Trolley Flow: 23,000 © 2013 by The Mission Group Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego 5
- 6. 2006 FAST Plan Ridership Flows Again, ridership projections were made using San Diego’s 2006 population and land use. As San Diego grows and more people live by transit, projected ridership should be expected to increase significantly. Even so, ridership flows on the North/Central component of the FAST Plan are equal to or better than existing Trolley lines. © 2013 by The Mission Group Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego 6
- 7. Why would so many new people ride the FAST Plan? © 2013 by The Mission Group Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego 7
- 8. Overall, the FAST Plan offers: Faster (shorter) travel times Fewer transfers Less waiting Better station/stop location Greater reliability Than our region’s current plans. © 2013 by The Mission Group Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego 8
- 9. Just what would it cost to build? © 2013 by The Mission Group Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego 9
- 10. % of Total Plan Guideway Length 40% Total Miles: 171 30% 19% 20% 10% 22% 21% 12% 10% 10% 3% 2% 0% Bridge © 2013 by The Mission Group Elevated At Grade (New) At Grade (Existing) Cut & Open Cut & Cover Bored Tunnel Surface Rail Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego 10
- 11. SANDAG RTP Capital Costs Mode Millions BRT $ 1,028 Heavy Rail $ 2,617 Light Rail $ 14,416 Rapid Bus $ 997 Streetcar $ 67 Total $ 19,125 Our region’s 2050 Regional Transportation Plan anticipates spending over $19 billion just for public transit capital projects. © 2013 by The Mission Group Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego 11
- 12. FAST Plan Capital Costs Capital Cost FAST Plan RTP 2050 FAST Plan Savings Cost Difference *The FAST Plan also includes Comparison approximately $1 billion in road $ 13,872,950,075 projects which are not included in this $ 19,125,000,000 comparison since they would not be $ 5,252,049,925* funded from the 27% transit portion of the RTP. Depending on how you slice and dice it, the FAST Plan may save the region up to $5 billion in direct capital costs, and may make some road projects unnecessary, saving further dollars. © 2013 by The Mission Group Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego 12
- 13. But could we afford to operate all those new services? © 2013 by The Mission Group Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego 13
- 14. Comparative Operating Subsidy Through 2050 SANDAG RTP $20 Billion FAST Plan $11-14 Billion* Cost Savings to the Region: $6-9 Billion (30-45%) *Depending on cost model used. All models only assume ridership based on 2006 tables for FAST Plan. We understand the difficulty in projecting long term operating costs and passenger revenue. Our modeling does indicate, though, that a faster transit system can save the region billions. © 2013 by The Mission Group Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego 14
- 15. Conclusion: The FAST Plan, as a strategic approach to creating a better integrated transit network, can: Reach into more places Save people more travel time Better support “smart growth” areas Attract many more riders Better improve automotive traffic and Cost significantly less to build and operate than our current transit plans. © 2013 by The Mission Group Move San Diego’s FAST Plan: A Better Transit Alternative for San Diego 15