This document explores the Antarctic Treaty in the year 2056 and discusses its future direction. It summarizes that the Treaty has had huge past success but faces challenges from climate change, increasing human activity, and belief in the system. It outlines three potential choices for the future: maintaining the status quo, enhancing commitment to invest in the current system, or reinventing the governance regime for the 21st century. The document also discusses New Zealand's scientific tradition in Antarctica and importance of science and diplomacy under the Treaty, as well as the impacts of climate change on Antarctica and potential sea level rise.

1. Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056

2. Health and Safety

3. Antarctic Youth Council
Charlie Wilkinson Miranda Voke Jacob Anderson Christoph Kraus Peggy Cunningham-Hales
Hanne Nielsen James Tremlett Lagi Tuimavave Ngahuia Leighton
(Chair)

4. Panel
Andrew Townend Dr Neil Gilbert Rear Admiral John Martin Lou Sanson
Tim NaishLionel Carter

5. • A healthy (almost-)centenarian
• An enduring ban on mining
• A vigorous system of governance
The Antarctic Treaty in 2056
Andrew Townend

6. The Antarctic Treaty in 2056
Dr. Neil Gilbert
Independent Antarctic Consultant

7. Territorial
claims
Regime implementationRegime development
Sealing
Convention
Mining
Convention
Fishing
Convention
Environmental
Protocol
Antarctic
Treaty
Agreed
Measures
Liability
Annex

8. • Influencing factors
– Antarctic values (peak science?); climate & environmental
change; increasing human activity; belief in the system
• Choice 1 – Business as usual
– Huge past success leading to “interested laissez-faire”
• Choice 2 – Enhanced commitment
– Determination to invest in current system
– An ATS fulfilling its global responsibilities
• Choice 3 – Future reinvented
– A revised 21st century governance regime
The Antarctic Treaty in 2056 – it’s a choice thing!

9. Rear Admiral John Martin, ONZM
…

10. Exploring the Antarctic Treaty in 2056
• What will be the emergent threats?
• Is our organisation consistent with our strategy?
• What is the honourable thing to do?

11. • Why our history with Antarctica really matters
as kiwis
• Why a policy pull on science is so important to
New Zealand
• Why people in nature will ultimately keep the
ATS strong
Lou Sanson

12. Lionel Carter

13.  ice sheet loss increasing √
 ice shelves retreating √
 more icebergs ?
 sea ice slight increase X
 ocean warmer and fresher √
 sea level rising √
 changing winds √
 currents stronger √
 less alkaline √
 biota affected e.g. plankton √ ?
31 Jan. 2002
23 Feb. 2002
13 April. 2002
Source: NSIDC
S. Ocean last 50yr - ongoing

14. Campbell
Plateau
STF
?
?
?U
U
O
Unclear
Observation
W
W A
W
C
C
T
NZ Pole vs Equator now and ongoing
?

15. An example
Subantarctic NZ
 Ocean warming
 Reduced W winds
 Nutrients
 More blooms
Likely Outcome
 Algal dominant as per
last warm period.

16. Antarctic Treaty System and Science
Guarantees continued freedom to conduct scientific
research
Promotes international scientific cooperation including
the exchange of research plans and personnel, and
requires that results of research be made freely available

17. Tim Naish

18. NZ’s scientific tradition & reputation in Antarctica

19. Big International Antarctic Science
ANDRILL
Ocean Drilling
Ice Coring
Census of Marine
Ant. Life
Latitudinal Gradient Project

20. Science Diplomacy
McMurdo Wind
Farm
Admiral Dufek
boards the
Endeavour
• Science and diplomacy increasingly
important to NZs broader foreign
policy agenda
• China, Korea, USA, Italy

21. Future science aligned with national and international
priorities and directions

22. 2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
Sources listed in Church et al. IPCC (2013)
DeConto &
Pollard 2016
Golledge et al., 2015,
Also Ritz et al., 2016, Nature
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
(m)
Climate change impacts on Antarctica and the impacts of
Antarctic ice melt on global sea-level rise by 2065
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
RCP 8.5 business as usual
RCP 2.6 Paris target
• RCP 2.6 saves the Antarctic
ice shelves
• More than 2°C above pre-
industrial commits Antarctica
to ongoing melt and sea-
levels up to 10m above
present.
• A critical issue for future
ACTS is mitigation strategy to
achieve Paris target
2065

23. Thank you