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Megatrend:
Climate disruption
Emerging trend: climate reporting
1
Part 1: Why have we not been able to tackle
climate change?
(Looking back over time)
2
3
‘… [A] large billiard table
with millions of balls flying
about on its surface,
colliding with one another
and with the side rails.’
‘The great surprise is that
the problem now becomes
easier: the methods of
statistical mechanics are
now applicable. … On the
average how far does a ball
move before it is hit by
some other ball? On the
average how many impacts
per second does a ball
experience?’
(Undertaken second, between
1900 and 1950)
1. 1958
Dr Warren Weaver, Director for the Division of Natural Sciences, The Rockefeller Foundation
Weaver described the
seventeenth, eighteenth and
nineteenth centuries as the
period in which physical
science learned how to
analyse two-variable
problems. These are problems
where
‘… the behaviour of the first
quantity can be described
with a useful degree of
accuracy by taking into
account only its dependence
upon the second quantity,
and by neglecting the minor
influence of other factors’
(Undertaken first, before 1900)
Weaver goes on to describe a
great middle region that had
remained relatively untouched
by science and yet was critical
for the future of humankind:
‘… But much more important
than the mere number of
variables is the fact that
these variables are all
interrelated … They are all
problems which involve
dealing simultaneously with a
sizeable number of factors
which are interrelated into an
organic whole.’
(Undertaken last, from 1950)
‘The Global 2000 Report to the President presents a
picture that can be painted only in broad strokes and
with a brush still in need of additional bristles. It is,
however, the most complete and consistent such picture
ever painted by the U.S. Government.
Many rapid and undesirable developments are foreseen
if public policies concerning population stabilization,
resource conservation, and environmental protection
remain unchanged over the coming decades.
Vigorous and determined new initiatives are needed
around the world. These initiatives need to be taken
soon while the picture is yet fluid and nations are still
preparing to enter the twenty-first century.’
4
2. 1980
Gerald O. Barney, American physicist and principal author
5
2. continued
Global 2000
The Report to
the President
Scenarios from the report:
Findings
1. They were accurate (in
September 30 2019 we are 408.41
ppm, well over 400 ppmv).
2. If the first two scenarios were
implemented in 1985 we would
not have a climate crisis in 2019.
6
Pace Layers Thinking
3. 1999
Stewart Brand, author of The Clock of the Long Now, editor of Whole Earth Catalogue and founder of the Long Now Foundation
The fast layers (fashion and
commerce) innovate; the
slow layers stabilize
(governance and culture).
The slowest layer (nature)
does not disrupt often, but
when it does disrupt, it
disrupts all the layers
above.
‘Growing, Fast and Slow’ speech
Haldane notes:
‘What follows is a cocktail of economics, history, sociology and psychology. For
those seeking a common denominator, it is sitting between your ears.
Psychologist Daniel Kahneman says the brain has two ways of thinking (fast and
slow). The same may be true, and for many of the same reasons, when
understanding growth (fast and slow).’
The question he explores is which comes first: sociological or
technological transformation?
‘…sociological transformation supported, perhaps preceded,
technological transformation…
And sociological transformation was at least as important as
technological transformation in catalysing the lift-off in growth.’
7
4. 2015
Andrew G Haldane, Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Bank of England
Part 2: What does that mean for the work
of the McGuinness Institute?
(Looking forward)
8
9
Insights from the Institute:
1. Foresight and strategy require different skills and
places for discussion. It was easy to jump into
discussing strategy without fully exploring foresight.
2. Reporting is the third key policy component, as it
informs foresight and determines whether strategy is
successful or not.
3. Think tanks, and especially our Institute, work on
problems of organised complexity.
4. Climate disruption will permeate all our research and
policy work for the next ten years or more.
5. Sociological transformation is at least as important
as technological transformation.
10
What we do: youth empowerment and engagement
KiMuaNZ: Exploring climate futures workshop (with the Governor-General)
11
What we do:
research
Discussion paper on
climate reporting
Thank you
12
Level 2, 5 Cable Street
PO Box 24222
Wellington 6142
New Zealand
Phone | +64 4 499 8888
Email | enquiries@mcguinnessinstitute.org

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Asia Pacific Foresight Group presentation – climate disruption and climate reporting

  • 2. Part 1: Why have we not been able to tackle climate change? (Looking back over time) 2
  • 3. 3 ‘… [A] large billiard table with millions of balls flying about on its surface, colliding with one another and with the side rails.’ ‘The great surprise is that the problem now becomes easier: the methods of statistical mechanics are now applicable. … On the average how far does a ball move before it is hit by some other ball? On the average how many impacts per second does a ball experience?’ (Undertaken second, between 1900 and 1950) 1. 1958 Dr Warren Weaver, Director for the Division of Natural Sciences, The Rockefeller Foundation Weaver described the seventeenth, eighteenth and nineteenth centuries as the period in which physical science learned how to analyse two-variable problems. These are problems where ‘… the behaviour of the first quantity can be described with a useful degree of accuracy by taking into account only its dependence upon the second quantity, and by neglecting the minor influence of other factors’ (Undertaken first, before 1900) Weaver goes on to describe a great middle region that had remained relatively untouched by science and yet was critical for the future of humankind: ‘… But much more important than the mere number of variables is the fact that these variables are all interrelated … They are all problems which involve dealing simultaneously with a sizeable number of factors which are interrelated into an organic whole.’ (Undertaken last, from 1950)
  • 4. ‘The Global 2000 Report to the President presents a picture that can be painted only in broad strokes and with a brush still in need of additional bristles. It is, however, the most complete and consistent such picture ever painted by the U.S. Government. Many rapid and undesirable developments are foreseen if public policies concerning population stabilization, resource conservation, and environmental protection remain unchanged over the coming decades. Vigorous and determined new initiatives are needed around the world. These initiatives need to be taken soon while the picture is yet fluid and nations are still preparing to enter the twenty-first century.’ 4 2. 1980 Gerald O. Barney, American physicist and principal author
  • 5. 5 2. continued Global 2000 The Report to the President Scenarios from the report: Findings 1. They were accurate (in September 30 2019 we are 408.41 ppm, well over 400 ppmv). 2. If the first two scenarios were implemented in 1985 we would not have a climate crisis in 2019.
  • 6. 6 Pace Layers Thinking 3. 1999 Stewart Brand, author of The Clock of the Long Now, editor of Whole Earth Catalogue and founder of the Long Now Foundation The fast layers (fashion and commerce) innovate; the slow layers stabilize (governance and culture). The slowest layer (nature) does not disrupt often, but when it does disrupt, it disrupts all the layers above.
  • 7. ‘Growing, Fast and Slow’ speech Haldane notes: ‘What follows is a cocktail of economics, history, sociology and psychology. For those seeking a common denominator, it is sitting between your ears. Psychologist Daniel Kahneman says the brain has two ways of thinking (fast and slow). The same may be true, and for many of the same reasons, when understanding growth (fast and slow).’ The question he explores is which comes first: sociological or technological transformation? ‘…sociological transformation supported, perhaps preceded, technological transformation… And sociological transformation was at least as important as technological transformation in catalysing the lift-off in growth.’ 7 4. 2015 Andrew G Haldane, Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Bank of England
  • 8. Part 2: What does that mean for the work of the McGuinness Institute? (Looking forward) 8
  • 9. 9 Insights from the Institute: 1. Foresight and strategy require different skills and places for discussion. It was easy to jump into discussing strategy without fully exploring foresight. 2. Reporting is the third key policy component, as it informs foresight and determines whether strategy is successful or not. 3. Think tanks, and especially our Institute, work on problems of organised complexity. 4. Climate disruption will permeate all our research and policy work for the next ten years or more. 5. Sociological transformation is at least as important as technological transformation.
  • 10. 10 What we do: youth empowerment and engagement KiMuaNZ: Exploring climate futures workshop (with the Governor-General)
  • 11. 11 What we do: research Discussion paper on climate reporting
  • 12. Thank you 12 Level 2, 5 Cable Street PO Box 24222 Wellington 6142 New Zealand Phone | +64 4 499 8888 Email | enquiries@mcguinnessinstitute.org