1) 4G/LTE networks now cover over 80% of the world's population, with 2 billion LTE subscribers globally as of 2017. 600+ commercial LTE networks have been launched. 2) Rapid migration to LTE-Advanced is occurring, with 1 in 3 operators launching these systems supporting speeds up to 300 Mbps. Gigabit LTE using LTE-Advanced Pro is now a reality. 3) By 2022, 5G subscriptions are forecast to reach 25% of mobile subscriptions in North America and 10% in Asia Pacific, while LTE will dominate globally at around 70-90% of subscriptions depending on the region.

1. Evolution to 5G from a 4G/LTE World
Alan Hadden
www.haddentelecoms.com
@alanhadden
1
Lisbon
May 3-4, 2017

2. Global MBB footprint with 4G/LTE
Over 80% of world’s population may be covered by LTE systems by end 2022
(> 50% today estimated)
2 billion LTE subs connected (Feb 2017)
- 25% market technology share
- forecast 4 billion LTE subs in 2020 (Ovum)
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c. 600 commercially launched LTE networks* in nearly 200 countries
- expect 650+ networks total by end 2017
*includes LTE-Advanced and LTE-Advanced Pro systems

3. Rapid migration to LTE-Advanced
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1 in 3 operators commercially launched LTE-Advanced systems
- main industry trend, global
- Majority for deployments in EMEA
Most support 300 Mbps DL speed (for Cat 6 user devices)
- no. of 450 Mbps (Cat 9) growing as device availability improves
- even faster speeds being introduced into some markets
- Gigabit LTE is a reality with LTE-Advanced Pro systems launched

4. Technology evolution global forecast
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Mobile subscriptions in Middle East and Africa are
mainly GSM/EDGE-only, while in Western Europe and
North America the majority are WCDMA/HSPA and LTE
Over the forecast period, Middle East and Africa will
dramatically shift from a region with a majority of
GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions, to a region where
80 percent of the subscriptions will be WCDMA/HSPA
and LTE. However, GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions will still
account for a significant share of subscriptions by 2022. In
Latin America, WCDMA/HSPA and LTE already account for
around 60 percent of all mobile subscriptions – a number In Central and Eastern Europe, the share of LTE subscriptions
GSM/EDGE-onlyLTE
WCDMA/HSPA5G TD-SCDMA
CDMA-only
20
40
0
60
80
100
Mobile subscriptions by region and technology (percent)
North
America
2016 2022
65%
LTE
25%
5G
Latin
America
2016 2022
50%
WCDMA/
HSPA
55%
LTE
Asia Pacific
2016
40%
GSM/
EDGE-only
2022
50%
LTE
Middle East
and Africa
2016 2022
65%
GSM/
EDGE-only
50%
WCDMA/
HSPA
Central and
Eastern Europe
2016 2022
50%
WCDMA/
HSPA
70%
LTE
Western
Europe
2016 2022
50%
WCDMA/
HSPA
90%
LTE
25% of subscriptions in North America and
10% in Asia Pacific will be for 5G in 2022
NOVEMBER 2016 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT 9
Mobile subscriptions in Middle East and Africa are
mainly GSM/EDGE-only, while in Western Europe and
North America the majority are WCDMA/HSPA and LTE
Over the forecast period, Middle East and Africa will
dramatically shift from a region with a majority of
GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions, to a region where
80 percent of the subscriptions will be WCDMA/HSPA
and LTE. However, GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions will still
account for a significant share of subscriptions by 2022. In
Latin America, WCDMA/HSPA and LTE already account for
around 60 percent of all mobile subscriptions – a number
that is expected to increase to 90 percent in 2022.
Asia Pacific is a diverse region. Despite ongoing deployment
of LTE in China, which will result in more than 1.2 billion
LTE subscriptions in the country by the end of 2022,
LTE subscriptions will represent just 50 percent of all
subscriptions in the region by the end of the same period.
This will be around one quarter of the global total. 5G
subscriptions will account for around 10 percent of all
subscriptions in the region in 2022, with deployments
starting in South Korea, Japan and China. All three of
these countries will host Olympic games in the coming
six years, and have stated intentions to launch 5G
services in conjunction with the games.
In Central and Eastern Europe, the share of LTE subscriptions
is anticipated to grow strongly from around 10 percent in
2016 to 70 percent of all mobile subscriptions in 2022.
In Western Europe, the share of mobile broadband
subscriptions is high due to well-developed WCDMA/HSPA
networks and early LTE rollout. The regional share of 5G
subscriptions will be 5 percent in 2022. Overall, North
America is the region with the highest share of LTE
subscriptions due to rapid migration from CDMA and
WCDMA/HSPA-based networks. In 2022, the region will
have the highest share of 5G subscriptions at 25 percent.
20
40
0
North
America
Latin
America
Asia Pacific
40%
GSM/
EDGE-only
Middle East
and Africa
Central and
Eastern Europe
Western
Europe
25% of subscriptions in North America and
10% in Asia Pacific will be for 5G in 2022
ON THE PULSE OF THE NETWORKED SOCIETY
Ericsson
Mobility
Report
NOVEMBER 2016

5. LTE-Advanced Pro
LTE-Advanced Pro users enables the Gigabit LTE era
and new business opportunities:
• LTE deployment in unlicensed spectrum
• NB-IoT and Cat M1 for LPWA applications (cellular IoT)
• Extends/enhances CA
• D2D
• Lower latency
• Higher order MIMO
• Advanced antenna features
• Faster speeds: Gigabit MBB
• Mission critical PTT
• and more ….
• Essential bridge from 4G to 5G
3GPP Release 13 & beyond
19 commercially launched LTE-Advanced Pro networks
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Massive MIMO Network slicing
Some “5G-like” features will appear in LTE-Advanced systems:

6. The Internet of Things opportunity
IoT includes:
Connected cars
Machinery
Utility meters
Remote metering
Consumer electronics
From 2018 mobile phone connections will be surpassed by IoT
16 billion IoT devices forecast by 2021
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ON THE PULSE OF THE NETWORKED SOCIETY
Ericsson
Mobility
Report
NOVEMBER 2016

7. Current 3GPP CIoT solutions
7

8. NB-IoT, LTE-M deployments
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4 commercial networks (Telus CAN, T-Mobile NL, Telia NO, Vodafone ES)
- several more are very close to commercial launch
A further 40 networks in 29 countries trialling, demonstrating or planning to deploy
- plus commitments to deploy by multi-country operator groups
2 commercial networks (Verizon and AT&T – both in US)
12 additional networks in 10 countries trialling, demonstrating or planning to deploy
NB-IoT
LTE-M
Source: GSA

9. Massive MTC
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LTE-Advanced Pro (Rel-13) addresses the needs of massive MTC use cases as NB1 (aka NB-IoT) feature
Diagram: Grandmetric blog
• Rel-14 adds support for positioning, multicast and non-anchor carrier operation
• Rel-15 adds small cell support plus TDD support for in-band, guard band & standalone operational modes

10. Not only about speed
AND ….. new spectrum will be needed
Smart Cities / IoT
5G enables the
industrial Internet Connected cars
Much more than mobile
broadband connectivity
. . .and much more
Current 5G expectations
Industry transformation
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11. Opportunities using 5G
Cloudification
Big data
NFV and SDN
Connecting the unconnected
Enterprise mobility / digital transformation
Addressing the needs of vertical industries
Autonomous vehicles
5G is “the foundation for realising the full potential of the Networked Society“ and
is absolutely necessary:
q to address mass-market adoption scale
q To enable many new use cases
q to allow organisations to move into new markets and build new revenue
streams with new business models and use cases
Major 5G research activities under way
q APAC including China
q Europe
q USA
5G service launch in
2020 – may be sooner
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12. 5G in a nutshell
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Source: Viavi Solutions, February 2017

13. 5G trial results
Spectrum bands used range from < 3GHz to 86GHz
Participating system
vendors:
Ericsson, Huawei,
Nokia, Samsung, ZTE
Source:
Viavi Solutions, February 2017
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14. 5G standards
3GPP continues to expand the LTE platform continuing on from Rel-13 to future Rel-14, Rel-15 including
enhancements to LTE-Advanced Pro
5G system standardisation is underway in 3GPP
• March 2017: Agreement on an earlier completion date of March 2018 of Non-Standalone (NSA) 5G NR
mode for enhanced MBB (this enables acceleration of standards-based field trials from 2019)
• Standard for Standalone (SA) 5G NR mode by September 2018 (unchanged)
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15. Spectrum for 5G systems
New spectrum is needed for 5G
Greatest economies of scale will come if number of different bands used for 5G is kept small
Leading system vendors* favour these bands as a basis for harmonisation on a global or
regional basis
• 600 MHz, 700 MHz
• 3.3–3.4 GHz, 3.4–3.6 GHz, 3.6–3.8 GHz, 3.8–4.2 GHz o 4.4–4.99 GHz
• 24.25–29.5 GHz
• 29.5–33.4 GHz
• 37–43.5 GHz
• 66–86 GHz
* Members of the GSA Spectrum Group
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16. Rel-15 improvements for LTE
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• 1024QAM – to improve spectral efficiency for small cell LTE deployments
• LAA/eLAA – to enable operation in CBRS band (3.5 – 3.7GHz) in the US
• Improving LTE operation in unlicensed spectrum
• Enhancements to V2X
• Improvements to NB-IoT
Diagram: Grandmetric blog

17. 5G deployment prospects
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• At least 18 operators announced commitments to deploy pre-standards “5G” networks in 13
countries
• First launches are expected to be in Italy and US

18. Thank you !
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Alan Hadden
www.haddentelecoms.com
@alanhadden